31 thoughts on “CHART OF THE DAY

  1. Paul

    Hi Gary thanx for chart. Yours are always easy to read . Would I be correct now in thinking that the 2 week retrace could take us back to the 1130 area or lower before pushing on uptp the 1250 area ?

    1. gary Post author

      Yes gold could drop back to retest the triangle trend line or the bear market trend line over the next week or two.

  2. William

    A re-post here:

    Traders, hope you have booked your profits as i mentioned on gdx & nugt facing twin resistance on Oct 14th where HUI is unlikely to test 145 level this time around.

    https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/gold-precious-moments-william-yii?trk=prof-post

    However, if you have not been riding the trade since September, here is another change, pay attention to these possible correction targets in coming days:

    https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/gold-immediate-correction-target-william-yii?published=t

      1. Jorgy

        I too took all profits on Friday… It’ll be interesting to see what next Tuesday’s Sentimentrader gold bull % number is. While we still have quite a few non-believers and many weak-hand longs thinking this might be just another countertrend rally in the context of a bear we’ll just have to see who wins this upcoming battle as the USD rallies out of it’s DCL and gold drops into its. The FOMC decision should be the catalyst for the next move up/down. ✌️

    1. Tushar

      Great insight, I agree and will be looking for Gold to 1140 and GDX @15.45
      Thank you and happy charting!

  3. Ralph Malph

    Gary,

    2 weeks of lower prices and then new highs???? Some people think gold is already in DC #3. that would mean new highs in DC#4?? And if prices moves down over the next 2 weeks, wouldn’t that imply a left translated DC??

    1. gary Post author

      I’ve also been considering that gold could be in a third daily cycle and it’s still possible. It will depend on whether the dollar has another leg down before its DCL or whether it has completed another short DCL and will bounce into the FOMC meeting.

  4. jim

    Gary:

    Do you ever consider the change in commercial positions when it comes to the metals? Looks like the commercials really laid into gold and silver last week. The last two times the commercials were this short, gold and silver put in a top and made lower lows.

    1. gary Post author

      I did note the COT postion this week and it was one reason why we took profits on most of our metal positions. I don’t think this will be a final intermediate top though. Just a daily cycle top and move down into a daily cycle low to rebuild energy for another move higher.

      1. David Silver

        I’m curious Mr. Savage what precise time if trading day did you actually take profits in metals?

        1. gary Post author

          I didn’t catch the COT until after the market close so we had to exit in the after market.

          1. David Silver

            I see but how can the common subscriber exit without after hours authorization uxury and if so have access in that small time frame window?

          2. gary Post author

            After hours is available to anyone, you just have to mark the order to activate in the after market and it will have to be a limit order.

  5. David Silver

    I’m not sure if I agree here and will go out on a limb:

    1) On Friday Gold held both 50 and 200 MDA.
    2) Technical breakout is only on day three and $1230 target has not yet been tagged.
    3) New bullish territory attained above 40DWA with more room to roam.
    4) Upper trend tag lines on her weekly spell $1230.
    5) Friday was a healthy consolidated bullish behavior action which portrays a newborn bill in it’s infancy stages.
    6) Most analysts are calling for a correction.
    7) Refernce #2 mirrors miners in early technical breakout stages which shouldn’t be prematurely truncated.
    8) Same goes with #7 where bear miner ETF’s too should not be reversed due to their support violation zones.
    9) Entities that be are now bullish and will manipulate her higher here on out.

    1. gary Post author

      Yes this one can go either way next week. It will all depend on if the dollar cycle has bottomed a little prematurely or not. Either way gold is going to be due for a hard move down into a daily cycle low. The only question is whether that move began on Friday or whether gold makes it up to 1200 or a little higher first.

      1. Jorgy

        If Thursday was day 19, the dollar was in its timing band for a daily cycle low. The swing low on Friday signals that a daily cycle low was been left behind, hence it was time to take profits. When the USD breaks above the declining cycle trend line it will confirm a new daily cycle for the USD.

        Gary and everyone else will need to be very patient trying to time the DCL in gold since the ECB is getting ready to announce QE2 which will put downward pressure on the Euro and force the USD higher than it otherwise would have gone naturally.

        The market has priced in “Lift Off ” in early 2016, but you never know what kind of surprise a major central bank(s) could announce unexpectedly on a Sunday night in the next couple weeks. I

        Rather than [email protected]@k for a re-entry into gold/silver miners over the next couple weeks I think I’ll be looking to short the broad equity market’s around the FOMC announcement since the biotech index or $NBI isn’t confirming the move higher in $NDX or $RUT. ???

    2. David Silver

      10) Crude bottomed Thursday.
      11) US markets bottomed Wednesday
      12) Chinese markets broke out Friday

    3. mike trike

      The COT and volume on DUST say that gold, especially silver and miners have hit a top and are going to have a correction. It is better to correct now for a few weeks than keep going up and then crash to new lows.

  6. David Silver

    Friday’s trading tape was orchestrated by commercial and retail investors. I bet you Sunday’s overnight/overseas will be manipulated by the Eastern entitity powers.

  7. Bill in Tokyo

    Whoa! Gary’s out? Good sign for me, as I can finally get on board this pullback.

    But, I expect more gapping/impulsing up after this correction, and I still have no idea on how to get on board safely. I just can’t stand buying at end of day (Tokyo’s 4 am is NY’s 3 pm) after a 6% move that gapped up. Kinda like jumping on a bronco that’s already bucking. More likely to take it in the nuts than ride.

    Gary, what will you look for to get on board? The typical reversal candle? Cycles? COT and Sentiment are too dull to time aren’t they? Thanks!

    1. gary Post author

      I’ll just try to get in as close to the bottom of the daily cycle as I can. Sometimes I can time them perfectly and other times the banksters stretch the cycle to fleece a few traders first before the real bottom.

      1. Bill in Tokyo

        Thanks Gary.

        I forgot that Cycles work real well at bottoms (better than at tops, you once said).

        Thanks.

  8. James Wiederzane

    Wouldn’t it make more sense to stay with your positions since you think the bear might be over, and instead only look to add IF gold and miners pull back, rather than sell out and try to get back in on a pullback that might never come? I agree they are more likely to pull back than not, but why not just use the opportunity to get bigger size for next move up, because if they don’t go lower you might be kicking yourself?

    1. gary Post author

      I kept a 10% position to catch any further move higher, but at 25 days into the daily cycle for miners it’s getting pretty late and they are living on borrowed time. Because of how late it is in the intermediate cycle I expect this correction to be especially sharp. Gold is due for a half cycle low in the larger intermediate cycle.

    2. David Silver

      Great point especially when Mr. Savage said he was 99% sure that gold bottomed at 1071.

      Also the after hours sell instruction to me sounds a bit impractical especially for the common how who had to be precise with their limit order for one and conveniently able to do so in that timely manner compared to a daytrader like life at disposal.

      I assume the other asset to time is energy but again like you said Mr. Savage states he’s lousy at timing the lows and once again did it there again instead of buying a second dose.

  9. James Wiederzane

    My point after all is that you have said on several occasions you can’t time short term very well and neither can anybody else, yet you are attempting to do so once again.

    1. gary Post author

      In my own portfolio I only have two positions that I need to take profits on. The rest are in long term call options that I can hold for a year or more.

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