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I’m a Gold/Silver Bull long-term but would still be very cautious in the short term…
From Daily Fx:
“Gold– Retail forex traders remain aggressively long Gold versus the US Dollar, and a contrarian view of crowd sentiment warns of further near-term weakness. Indeed our data shows that total long positions in XAU/USD outnumber those short by a notable 2.8 to 1. Until we see a pronounced shift we will maintain our calls for continued Gold price declines.”
That being said.. I’m with Gary in that the price action in the Miners is rather re-assuring. It’s time to ‘bargain hunt’ ladies and you should definitely add a few carefully selected stocks to your long term portfolio. My balls are on fire just thinking about it 🙂
Ps: And if you don’t know where to start then I recommend two of my favorites: John Doody, or Matt Badiali from Stansberry Research.
For those of you that follow DOLLAR INDEX:
We are years away from the low in Gold, We need bonds, stocks and currencies to fall before Gold gets a serious bet from Mr Market.
Didn’t u call a bottom a few months ago? Not being a smart ass. U believe the Fed still has our back in the SM and the theme has been equities up commodities down. .. no reason for this to change unless u think the Fed is going to embark on a QE Commodity program to combat deflation
I did think July was the final bottom. It lined up well with the CRB printing a 3 year cycle low, and the dollar was beginning to roll over. Then Draghi started talking about more stimulus and tanked the euro and gave the dollar new life.
I think the Fed has already begun some kind of QE program. It’s the only thing that could rescue the stock market after the crash in August. No different than the crash in 2010 when QE1 ended and the crash in 2011 when QE2 ended. The simple fact is the market can’t not sustain an upward trajectory without QE. That has been made painfully clear over the last 5 years. So for stocks to have recovered from the August crash there has to be another QE program in progress.
That’s just ridiculous. The fed’s been telegraphing a .25 hike for months. If another QE was around the corner, gold and the rest of the commodities would had sniffed it months ago but instead majority of the metals have been crashing.
Even with QE possibly in the works(I agree), gold consolidation is still not complete. Gold trend has gone down for four years. At least see it go sideways first. The last 3 years, it has bounced and sold off the 50 day MA(on 20 year weekly). Digesting such a huge gain all the years before takes time.
That said, I do enjoy your analysis on market cycles.
A bear market should last about 1/3 as long as the preceding bull. The bull stage lasted 10 years. The bear has lasted 4. I don’t see any reason why the bear market needs to last another 3 years. Gold has more than consolidated the previous rally and retraced 50% of the entire move.
Hey Gary ,
I meant these last 3 years. I wrote on previous posts that the bottom could be mid to end of 2016. 3 years from now, the gold bull will be marching north. The age old question is how the bottom will look. Violent? With the Bulls and bears fighting for prices at the extreme long term trend change, I suspect there will be some big price swings. We’re getting closer.
Btw, I’ve been following for a while and your analysis is thoughtful and helpful. It takes guts for someone to put there analysis on the line every day. Keep it up Gary!
Gary called a bottom 4years ago
Gold? He’s been calling a bottom for 3 years!!
4 years ago was a top, not a bottom.
COT Data for past 3 weeks. Note commercials in US$ Index…..(http://news.goldseek.com/COT/1448051570.php)
Daily Momentum indicators oversold
Non confirmation by miners
POG below 1080
Weekly Momentum indicators not oversold..
being long is High Risk/ High Reward.
being short is High Risk/ Low Reward.
Take your pick!
Seriously don’t you think you should give it a rest trying to call bottoms. Have you learned nothing from the past couple of months. My advice, step back, take a deep breath, see how gold progresses over the next few months, and try refrain from making calls every five minutes.
Heck we made good money off the last bottom. One can make money trading bear market rallies.
I think miners, at best, can be trading side-way for now…even assuming gold is trending lower.
it all depends on USX; miners have showed some strength because they saw consolidation of USX at its peak and they’ve interpreted it as [temporary] weakness, but once this consolidation-at-high-level is completed and USX breaks higher (as it is on very high probability – one of the safest trades now available as I’ve mentioned on other occasions) then … poor miners
Miners is a different story all together, some miners low was a couple of years ago.
However, there is a very natural pattern in the Gold Chart telling us it will bottom a few years from now.