75 thoughts on “CHART OF THE DAY

  1. Will

    DXY: 10D-EMA has cut below 40D-EMA after last Thursday’s price action. Expect a couple of more percentage down in the short-term!

    Happy New Year!

        1. Will

          New compliance policy that forbids me to post any investment related matters on social network websites…Canadian companies have been really strict on this some-how…

  2. chris

    Gold and silver is up to its usual huge sell offs in the last 3 days of the year nonsense. Decided to go flat and buy on this expected weakness.

  3. Jay

    This time might actually be different than the previous 10 (or more) failed metals bottom calls. πŸ™‚

    1. Gary Post author

      At this point I think it’s probably just an intermediate bottom. I fully expect another attack later this spring to try and drive gold down to or below $1000.

      1. AlexP

        it will not be an attach per se; just a mirroring reaction of USX ascent to its YCH after its ICL around JAN8

        1. Gary Post author

          The dollar is going to have to fall a long way in a very short time to print an ICL by Jan. 8. Remember in order to confirm the ICL it will need to break it’s intermediate up trend line.

          I’m thinking it’s more likely that the dollar prints an ICL either on the next ECB meeting on the 21st, or the next FOMC meeting on the 28th.

      2. Mark

        So you don’t think anymore that this could be a long term double bottom?
        Going long gold until spring,then turn short would be the best strategy?

  4. David Silver

    Going to place four strategic limit buy points in SA Monday going forward and hold till gold’s intermediate top

  5. AlexP

    While I do not like trading silver (and anything else than stocks/gold/treasuries), I personally believe that gold (most likely silver too) will start its intermediate cycle decline in 2 weeks from now.

    This rally which started at the end of DEC17 session is tradable indeed but it will be short-lived.

    PS: I keep my full position long gold of 23% weight (target to sell on Thursday JAN7) and I will initiate short stocks at the opening today.

  6. zkotpen

    Gary, AlexP,

    G’day! Hope you had a nice X-M weekend!

    Just to be clear: Are you counting the March, 2015, lows in PM’s as “ICL”?

    I see the current yearly (primary) cycle as having an ICL in November, 2014, and another in July, 2015, with one more ICL to come, which will complete the move down since September, 2011 — which is not to say that I don’t think there will be another, after a 2-4 year bear market rally, to complete a correction of cycle degree & test the 200 month SMA in gold.

  7. zkotpen

    Gary, AlexP,

    Perhaps you are calling March 17 & December 3 of this year as “ICL’s” in gold?

    If so, then our outlook differs only in semantics.

    I concur with Alex to a certain extent — the rally in metals has a little while to go, before turning down into an ICL.

    I have a friend who lost a good bit of money trying to trade that nasty rally from mid-March to mid-May — be careful!

    1. AlexP

      Hi, Z!
      I personally see the last YCL of gold in NOV2014 and most likely this YC will extend into March (YCL in March) as USX will deliver its YCH at that time and commence its yearly cycle decline which I think will be rather shallow.

    2. AlexP

      …and yes, this PM rally should be short-lived and PMs ICH should NOT come on overbought levels of oscillators as Gary indicated because this is one of the tricks Lady Market plays: she is a bipolar depressive who occasionally loves to guile and surprise everybody –> this time at the moment everybody will think that USX bull is over and the PM’s bull has started she will play the trick with a big laughter to produce a bull trap for USX in March and smack PM bulls into complete disillusion –> THE VERY REQUISITE TO RENDER GOLD’S YCL IN MARCH ALSO THE BOTTOM OF ITS BEAR MARKET.

        1. AlexP

          no problem, Gary. I’ve stated before that I see gold at year-end at 1115 and its ICH by mid JAN at some 1140 –> that will ensure a trend line break

  8. Dan

    Metals getting whacked with oil and the markets. Looks like nat gas the only thing to be long. Wish I bought more UGAZ last week.

  9. zkotpen

    Hi Alex!

    So did you have March, 2015, as an ICL or just a DCL?

    My backtesting of charts using 200 day SMA suggests that March, 2015, was a DCL, indicating one more move down to the ICL.

    Of course, that’s hindsight — at present, I think the December 3 low portends another move down into what I’m calling the ICL, by similar indications as I see from back in March. Not saying that the rest of this “rally” will look like it did from March to May, rather, that the effect on price level vis Γ  vis the 200 day SMA will be similar.

    Now when I switch to the 200 week SMA for gold, I also get a clear YCL in November, 2014.

    1. AlexP

      clearly it was an ICL in March, the second in July and the third now in Dec.
      The 4th and last is to come in March.

    2. Gary Post author

      March was an ICL. It was followed by a right translated daily cycle, and a top during the second daily cycle.

  10. Chris

    Silver has dropped to its around its max daily range, buying it seems ok.

    Back to stocks. Many times, stocks tends to rally during the last few days of the year. It really takes good analysis and guts to stay convicted short. I shorted near the highs on Christmas eve. In 15 mins before close, market tanked big time. I am still short because prices never rally to threaten them. Not that I am good. I am scared like hell of a snapped back year end rally. I will continue to trail my take profit level.

    The point is, I could never see market dropping big. I am only good at short term trading, and letting some profits run. Hopefully enjoy a home run. Yet some of you could see market tanking.. Truly amazing.

    1. AlexP

      yes, SPX to drop to a minimum 1920, as stated before.
      FB will fall to 97 while LNKD to 216 through the next fortnight –> they will be good to buy at these levels

  11. Dan

    People are sick of the bear case and constant Fed rescue snapbacks. Which likely means we get a big January drop.

  12. zkotpen

    Aha!

    So that’s it — I am not calling the March, 2015, low an ICL, same as I haven’t for the current low.

    I’m calling the move from the January, 2015, peak to July, 2015, low one intermediate cycle — a double zig zag. That comes from Elliott Wave terminology and definitions. I’m using a more restrictive definition of intermediate than you and Gary.

    What’s so exciting in my analysis lately is using the 200 period sample size is that the March, 2015, and July, 2015, lows exhibit different characteristics than what I’m calling “intermediate” lows as well.

    So I reckon for you and Gary, intermediate cycles rely more on timing bands, whereas I rely much more on probabilistic analysis — on rare events. If you eat out every day, it’s just not as special as eating out once per month πŸ™‚

    1. AlexP

      maybe so, Z. I don’t know how Elliot Theory sees intermediate lows because, as I have told you, I do not resonate with Elliotism.
      There are some largely employed setups and filters which I do not favor hence I do not use at all, such as Elliot TH, MACD, RSI, P&F charts.

  13. victor

    “Yet some of you could see market tanking.. Truly amazing.” … why do not call those “some” by AlexP? He is the only one who call it… Me too,, shorted at the very top, thanks to Alex…, short stocks, long metals, thanks Alex for SLP, waiting to “bite” it….

  14. Stefan

    I was blown away a couple of days ago when I posted a possible multi year gold bear chart with input from another analyst. The very next day a skilled Elliot Wave analyst from Sweden, confirmed the chart almost to perfection by moving around his ew letters and said it looked much more harmonic. Maybe I am on to something πŸ™‚

    I think we are on a trip to build a big head and shoulder formation in gold for the next couple of years.

    http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/526147#comment-526147

    EW is only a tool together with fib math to explain the fractional nature of human produced charts. Just look at your self, your face, arms and body has multi fib relations, so why not charts?

  15. Chris

    I am a pussy. Decided to take profit on my shorts. Maybe this 140 years of years ending with “5” being an up year is going to stop working this year because of my jinx mouth. But heck it. I just take my profit. SPX started the year at 2075. We have 3.5 trading days left.

    1. Gary Post author

      It’s dangerous to short stocks. The Fed has a printing press.

      Much safer to wait patiently until a correction materializes and then buy long.

  16. chris

    Pussy me using some of my profit from shorting to long a little. Stops at the low of the day. Don’t need to analyse too much. Just some money management way of trading. If short, my stops are very far. If I long, the stops are very near. Lol

  17. chris

    Actually when market takes out the previous narrow range trading day low, it should have been a short. But this year ending with “5” nonsense makes me feel spx gonna close near 2075. It’s a hunch. And from the shorter term price behaviour, downside momentum is slowing.

    1. AlexP

      do not hurry.
      listen to the market, take high probability trades and be patient enough to stay with them until the market whispers differently souring the odds of those trades.

  18. Gary Post author

    If it was the dollar moving gold and silver then neither one would be down today as the dollar is down.

    Gold and silver are due for an intermediate rally and they will deliver one, but there is no doubt after today that the metals are being suppressed and the first 4 weeks of the intermediate cycle wasted so that gold will be setup for another big attack once the dollar bottoms and starts the next intermediate rally.

    So don’t get too attached to this trade, and be ready to get back on the sidelines by the 3rd or 4th week in January as gold is going to be subjected to another beating this spring.

    This is a classic example of why you can’t trade technicals in the metals. All the technicals were pointing up, yet the bullion banks had no trouble turning them 180 degrees this morning even though the dollar is down.

    1. AlexP

      Morning, Gary!
      And today it is time to see thing the other way round: USX up pretty joyfully (taking stocks up abreast it in their positive correlation) while gold is stubborn πŸ™‚ –> how come that those bullion alchemists in their London and Wall Street offices do not take the opportunity to elbow gold lower now that they have the heavy-weight power of USX on their side ?!!

      I am not writing this to tease you, Gary.
      The point I want to make is an older one: gold [and stocks] markets are not rigged/manipulated to a material level. Corruption exists and, who knows, maybe it is true that FED lends a helpful hand to market makers to prop stocks market at EXTREME moments (such as in 1987, 2003 or 2009) BUT THE “MANIPULATION DRIVER” IS TOO OFTEN AND TOO MUCH PLAYED, I think.

      PS: USX’ up move now is a technical retracement to 50dma; it is bears’ way of resting a little bit more before roaring anew. Not surprisingly considering the strong positive correlation btw SPX and USX, SPX is also to retrace to its 50dma too today πŸ™‚

  19. Simo83

    In my opinion indicators are totally useless. It is difficoult to understand prices, no need to complicate the analisys even more. Only price matters.

    1. Gary Post author

      It looks like the bullion banks are going to use the low volume this week to attack gold one more time.

  20. jack

    too many people are bullish on gold and miners now. It won’t rally until most of them lose the interest.

    1. Gary Post author

      I have to side with tulip. The sentiment levels from a couple of weeks ago was down to 10% bulls. That is extreme bearishness.

  21. Tom

    Anyone who has ever put more than 5% of their portfolio in gold or miners deserves to be broke.
    2016 will be more of the same. stocks up, miners down.

    1. Gary Post author

      Well maybe 10% but that has been my recommendation for a while now. The sector is too much under the control of a few big banks to rely on any kind of technical, cyclical, sentiment or any other indicator being of any use.

      The bottom line is they will whipsaw the sector as long as they can, and they will take it down until there aren’t any stops left to run. Then they release it to produce an intermediate rally.

      We should be pretty close to the point where they get out of the way and let it rally for a few weeks, but they may try to drive it to 1030 first during the low volume this week, even though the dollar has topped.

      1. Mark

        Excuse me Gary,
        but in this case we will NEVER see a bottom in gold!
        If technical,cyclical,sentiment indicators are all useless we can all forget about PM investments for the rest of our life.

  22. David Silver

    Accomplished 4 tranches in SA today
    Wait and see if she matetializes off her 50wma with the gold rush intact short-term

  23. Will

    Newcrest mining is attempting the 2nd test on its major vertical downtrend resistance line from the peak in 2011…will see if it can close the day with a big white candle-stick!!! Expect its success or failure to be another proxy for tonight’s price action…

  24. David Silver

    Thinking the turn in commodities came at the New York 2pm hour after shaking out the weak in conjunction with a 50% FIB pivot point

  25. Will

    Yup, confirm that Newcrest just closed the day above its major resistance for the 2nd test of the year on its daily chart ???

    May the force be there tonight…

  26. Dan

    How long can these criminal interventions to prop up stocks last? These Fed gangsters make the subprime mortgage hucksters look small time.

  27. Chris

    I know the frustration of bears. It seems like every rally is fake, that stocks should plunge 30%. But if you look at spx from 1950s to 2000, prices always move much higher after some big dips.

    http://www.chartsrus.com/charts.php?image=http://www.sharelynx.com/chartsfixed/USSP500.gif

    For SPX 2000 top , it took 13 yrs to consolidate before breaking up to new highs. It took off to new high in 2013. So what this means is only 2 years into new highs. Keep an open mind. If it is 1980s , 1990s, SPX could still rally a lot.

    Bottomline, i leave my opinion and brains at the door. When i use my brains and position trade, I lose big. I just hope i could be discipline to trade short term and leave my brains outside.

  28. Chris

    SPX often can rally 30 points ish when it wants to rally. That means, spx cash could close at 2090 ish today.

  29. David Silver

    Obviously the FED will protect the US markets and up she will continue to go into 2016
    Jumbotron stocks FB, AMZN and GOOG charts look ripe for a breakout soon mirroring SA’s technicals IMO
    AAPL languishing

  30. David Silver

    I think the doc finally will be proven wrong here with his commodities late year into early 2016 call
    Noticed how he changed his tune from spring to mid 2016 bottom to now year end
    I guess we all have to change our tune when the market beckons
    Great trader nonetheless

    1. tulip

      the doc is consistent but he has been sorta softening lately…everyone & his dod predicts a gold low in March… & dollar high….

  31. David Silver

    The US markets are ready to pop:
    Today the S&P and INDU had their 200 dma cross over their 50dma
    Tell tale was in the comp two weeks ago (same fashion)
    Russell is the laggard but today gave the green light go
    Megatron stocks:
    AMZN and GOOG in a technical breakout
    BIDU and FB bouncing off their 50dma higher
    EXPE, PCLN and NFLX have similar new rising trend charts
    Even AAPL was injected today with new life
    I was a non-believer but am convinced now with the tape action today
    Want to add more NFLX on weakness for sure
    Long NFLX
    Long SA
    Long crude

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