I’m just expecting an intermediate rally at this point, but this deep into an almost 5 year bear market with juniors down over 90%, every intermediate bottom has to be given the benefit of the doubt.
That’s the problem with big bear markets. The longer they go on the more people distrust every rally. When in fact it should be the other way around. The longer they last the more one should expect every intermediate bottom will be the “final” bottom.
We’ve seen these patterns before. GDX is basing and at these oversold levels will move higher, not lower. I expect a few more days of sideways motion and then a pop. We should be able to at least get up to the 200sma.
On the same page with Gary. I expect DXY to give-in this week and if that doesn’t fuel a pop in miners, nothing will.
There goes oil heading down , to retest its recent lows . That might get the ball rolling for the Dow down again into next week .
Mild remaining winter weather in the northeast per Accuweather thru March .
One has to remember that the metals are the most manipulated markets in the world other than currencies. So you need to analyze the metals market with this in mind, and anticipate why price is moving as it is (it has nothing to do with supply and demand).
Once big money sees a right translated daily cycle in gold they know that an intermediate rally has begun. So they attack the miners hard as gold drops down into its first daily cycle low. That sets up the lowest possible entry price ahead of the second daily cycle. This is exactly what happened in August also.
They are going to want to make some money on the positions they just entered, so we should have a respectable rally of 30-50% over the next 3-5 weeks.
Good call. Green is preferable to red. Would like to make some of these buy and hold’s, but we shall see.
the fed meets over this tues /weds.
They started raising rates in dec. for a variety of reasons that you all know.
They are going to reassure everyone thhat the economy is recovering and they think it will continue to recover this year , housing is improving , interest rates are near all time lows which helps the economy , wages are improving , temporary low commodity prices , etc .
This is all hawkish . So , more rate raise to follow this year . This will strengthen the dollar .
do you ever read adam hamilton Walt… or stewart thomson…??
gold goes up..
It’s a tough one, they need to stop this rate raising before they crash everything, but that does not mean they will (until it’s to late). I think whatever Janet says this week will be taken badly by the markets. Maybe BOJ increases the flow this week, which will be good for a solid rally
One of the thing that Alex has been wrong about Gold and possibly about commodity is that he kept looking at the dollar while overlooking the banks. I believe most times when banks are underperforming, gold will outperform.
Go look at GS, etc, and most importantly DB. Like I said before, market smells something is wrong with those banks. Hence, they park money in gold, and possibly commodities.
In a few feeler UVxY calls here. I expect the criminals to ramp SPX for a few days before the trap door really flies open though.
Minere a tough call. Just holding fizz.
This smells like a fake little rally to me unless it breaks 1179 decisively on a weekly basis.
The Oil sell off finally catching the eye of Dow/s&p longs .
I think if the Dow has another leg down over the next 2 weeks , and it goes into its 7 yr low , then I think the miners or any other stock gets creamed
Maybe that head & shoulders in the miners comes true . I guess we’ll see pretty soon .
I’ll be buying them hand over fist then , that’s for sure
GLD, GDX, GDXJ, all of them are not strong price action today, combine with weak volume, it is hard to say gold and gold miner are bottom in place. I think short term gold rally will end soon, and will start new downside movement in this week.
BC, yes. Gold’s rally always looks like a suspect given its prolonged bear. Yes volume these few days are low. That’s due to fomc. But dont think, if gold is to bottom, this is how it will bottom. Firstly, make some higher highs and higher lows. Secondly, 5dma above, 10 dma, above 20 dma, and now 20 dma is about to be above 50 dma.
It is doing all these now, so a potential bottom is there. By the time it shows high volume, it shall breakout to $1130 ish. And that will be post fomc. Assuming it does do a second breakout.
The good news for bulls are some mining stocks are breaking out of 200 dma. Best is ABX. Also GFI.
Silver too just closed above its 50 dma. Finally, after a prolonged fight. Now today could be a one day fluke. If next day, silver takes out todays high, then the odds are good for bulls.
Fomc will be funny . Hawkish fed . “Everything is going ok . Unemployment @5% , improving wages , real estate getting better , low oil price putting cash in consumers wallets , etc . I wonder how the stock market will take it
Nice gold. I suspect it will rally to $1160-$1165 before fizzling out. There after, watch for 61.8% pull back. Or $1070 swing low . Both these should not break. If break, gold likely to resume downtrend.
Avid follower for a long time, first time writer. Appreciate the many times people help each other and looking for some now. A stock with amazing potential but sitting in the 40 cent range. I cant figure out why it hasn’t busted out yet. Micro chip maker and five chips in the Rift Oculus 3D headset as well as others. Huge potential, is it still too early for it?? T. SEV, Spectral7 Microchips. Advice would be much appreciated.
Nobody Cares (at a bottom): http://youtu.be/qnZHMmCjpQ8 ?
With gold , silver, etc rallying. Here is so quiet. Very good news. Many are skeptical. Hardly anyone buying. lol
I bet they are selling preparing for the next bloodbath!
Nothing but clear skies ahead for an easy triple in the miners. Everything else is going down the tubes in 2016, but I can’t brings myself to buy into the miners.
And the G-man has been playing the markets like a fiddle lately. Saved me a lot of cash money the last couple months.
I just went short the S&P . I think we go down the next 2 weeks . Good call Gary on the last week of the miners moving up .
Not sure how long it will last .
In some of your earlier analysis you were looking for gold to rally up, as it has since done, and then one last push down. Perhaps this push down to occur around 1130-1140 area where there is a trend line, 618 fib, and 200 day moving average. Are you still thinking that as we enter this area we will see the powers that be make one last push down? Noticeable optimism being reported on gold recently, perhaps as people get more bullish on in the mainstream as it reaches this area it will get a violent push down from the manipulators. Thoughts?
It’s pretty much impossible to anticipate what the next move of the banks will be, But they went to great lengths to create a low entry ahead of this rally so I have to think they are going to let it run for a few weeks before they try to cap price again.
Nice call ……the undercut low in the miners.
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