87 thoughts on “MARKET WRAP – GOLD

  1. mm

    Blees and sentiment must not mean much any longer. U have been talking blees for a while. As for sentiment, look at oil … the DSI in oil has been single digits for weeks and oil gas been down down down including almost 6% today and down another 1.37% tonight. ???

    1. Gary Post author

      Neither the Blees rating nor sentiment are great timing tools. But when they are both at extremes it’s not usually a good idea to be short. Either long or in cash.

  2. Bill in Tokyo

    Thanks for these posts, Gary.

    Am hoping too that gold (GDX) will just pull back here so I can get on board.

  3. David Silver

    Mr. Savage is onto something:
    Out of my miners asap
    Also hate to be long ANYTHING (incl. NatGas) with a crash on the horizon
    Flip gears thereafter
    Sell short financials as I wanted to today
    Hoping for a pop

  4. Chris

    Interesting to see the rally into the close, on the spx, seems to be fuelled by the xiv buying on mass. We will see 1885 sooner or later…

  5. Will

    DAX, China – BOTTOM! U.S’ action later today will confirm these…
    Mind you, i mean, bottom for the month…


    1. Will

      Those who wants to know why technically:

      China – daily Harami on today’s close on mulitiple weekly support channels.

      Dax – daily inverted shooting star with engulfing as of now…the tape continues.

  6. AlexP

    yes, indeed, Will – we have the bear rally at hand 🙂

    on gold –>> it is clearer to me by each day that gold is already in intermediary cycle decline.
    I will scale in some more to the short gold position today.

    I will move to a full short gold position in about two weeks from now when I expect to see the DCH of the next daily cycle –> the DCHs both in GDX and in gold are to be lower than the prior ones of 15.01 and of 1113 respectively despite the right-translation of their daily cycles.

  7. David Silver

    Thanks Alex for that REASSURANCE and with that said:
    Selling @ open:
    Shorting @ open:
    Miners (one tranche)
    NatGas (one tranche)
    Short crude (one large tranche equivalent to 10 tranches THEN)
    Short US Markets (one tranche)
    USD throwing a “monkey wrench into the equation” for good measure
    Gotta be quick with the draw when one’s wrong (ouch)

    1. AlexP

      welcome, David!
      I will personally have 0.70% of my equity at risk (before potential slippages) with this demi-pilot-demi-position short-gold trade.

      I would cover the short though depending one some criteria with the intention of re-entering:
      – deep dive in gold
      – time band for DC completion nears (at the beginning of next week)
      – I see miners turning around –> I don’t know much on miners, I only follow GDX occasionally (not always) at turning points to get a lead on gold entries.

  8. David Silver

    I feel the overall CONTINUED downtrend of the market will take energy down as well as metals with her hence my bearishness
    PLUS CRB isn’t even ready yet to take a breather
    The hyped up IF ANY futures is just a mind game to trap the newbies

  9. Walt

    If this is not the crash of the stock markets , like everyone all over the Internet is thinking might happen ( armstrong, maund , Gary , and on and on ) then there is going to be some serious short covering taking place in the coming weeks that will easily take those markets to their all time highs in March , crushing gold into March . That’s how we might get gold its low in march . Its a possibility .

  10. Walt

    Even Cramer and jp Morgan are bearish right now . Alex was the only guy who was contrarian , and he flipped to bearish on Friday .

  11. Walt

    David , I think you’re right , that if we do crash the stock markets , gold goes down with everything .
    I don’t like gold here either way

  12. mm

    Gold got a little rally last week when fear was high. What happens when the fear subsides after the earning beats that come this week and market goes up? Gold Will Probably Get Sliced ???

  13. AlexP

    Walt, now 2- or 3-week STRONG stocks rally (most likely to spx=2100) + gold down, i.e. not both of them down

    1. AlexP

      ….and Walt, USX is not wrong-footing me: it is just as I have been expecting it 🙂

      I wrote on Sunday afternoon, NY time, on a prior post of Gary’s my Trading Framework, i.e. my short-term forecasts and … so far so good:
      – now on Tuesday stocks have turned up in the bear rally
      – miners are getting into the bushes
      – gold is down
      – USX is up

  14. Dan

    Taking profits on puts at the open. But was expecting more. Another outright criminal intervention overnight. Fed gangsters won’t allow a crash.

    1. AlexP

      Dan, it is no FED intervention; it is a normal minor trend that will leave everybody in amazement with its power –> up to nearly spx=2100, before diving to new lows as the market bear will gain strength to move much lower after such an upthrust

  15. Walt

    If the dollar turns around from 100 and down next week at the same time stocks start backing away from s&p 1965 and down I might short s&p down to 1870 or so . If the s&p goes to 2100 in the next 2 weeks , then aug lows will hold this winter , and I think we’ll see 2300 mid yr .

  16. Walt

    All in all , if I had a gun to my head , I think that we end the year down 3-5% on the s&p . No crazy crash coming now , like many many think . End of 2017 the real sh.t storm starts .

  17. Gary Post author

    Gold has to break it’s intermediate down trend line to confirm that an intermediate rally has occurred. If gold doesn’t do that then we are still completing a stretched move into an ICL and the Dec. low becomes just a DCL, not an ICL. The ICL would lie ahead.

    Because this daily cycle has been right translated it suggests the bottom should hold above the Dec. low and the next daily cycle should break that trend line.

  18. AlexP

    Gary, gold is in a new IC. Indeed breaking that trend line would have been the ultimate, beyond-any-doubt proof that we are in a new IC but absent that confirmation it does not mean we are not in a new IC.

    We have had a convincing break above 50dma and gold has run high enough to imply that we are in a new IC.
    Additionally and most importantly, gold’s leader, USX, is clearly now in the first DC of a new IC.

    Thus, we have plenty of direct and indirect evidence that gold is in the first DC of its new IC too.

    1. Gary Post author

      I’m going to go with the rules. The rules say that in order to confirm an ICL the dollar has to break it’s intermediate trend line. That never happened so the dollar is still in the same advancing intermediate cycle and hasn’t dropped into an ICL yet.

      The rule says that in order to confirm an ICL has been struck and a new intermediate cycle is rising the intermediate down trend line has to be broken. As gold never broke the trend line then there is no confirmation that a final ICL has been struck. If gold makes a lower low it would just be a continuation of a stretched intermediate cycle.

      And in order for stocks to complete a left translated intermediate cycle they would have to drop below the previous ICL in August. Also either the dollar or the euro has to be making an ICL for stocks to form a final intermediate bottom. That obviously didn’t happen yesterday so this is not a final ICL in the stock market. That could mean one of two things. Either this is a bounce out of a half cycle low, or the intermediate cycle is going to be stretched out for another daily cycle before forming the ICL.

      As most of the ICL’s over the past couple of years have been running very long the second scenario may be the most likely.

      1. Joe

        Isn’t it not both. Like you mention this weekend we gotta do a little upside adjustment before we going down more?

        1. AlexP

          yes, now, based on today’s price action, I think gold (or miners) could put its DCL on Thursday/Friday after which a short-lived upside will ensue in metals (with a top in around 2 weeks from now) at which point miners/gold will be shortable again

      2. AlexP

        Gary, confirmation via trend line break is obtained on most occasions but for an asset in bubble, such as USX now, the situation should be different.
        USX’ status lent weakness to gold and that’s why it hasn’t been able to break even marginally its down trend line.

  19. AlexP

    David, unless gold opens the day at >1090, I am skipping to add more to the short gold trade now at the beginning because I am at odds with fulfilling my reward-risk ratio after its quick dive today.
    Thus I am likely to remain with the stake I put last evening. Likewise, it is more and more likely based on price action to close the short on Monday and to take quickly take a full position in two weeks – when gold will be past of its next DCH

  20. Frank

    It must seem that only diagonal triangles mark big turns in markets. That is not true, but take a look at how easy it is when they do —-

  21. Frank

    To see the chart in the previous comment put a “1.” (no quotes) at the start of the URL. Sorry.

  22. David Silver

    Tape action yesterday looked SO fake and manufactured which took the shorts by suprise
    Obviously MORE short covering at the open hence the daily bullish candles forming her low
    Hence my reason not to be short ANYTHING
    What better than crude at this juncture
    OR zzzzz in cash
    OR wait for a “double bottom”
    OR wait for a breakout
    OR take a chance with a tranche

  23. David Silver

    NO kidding WIlliam
    For the FIRST time in a LONG time I was briefly all in cash!
    Going to do what I do best I guess is to follow crude’s up and downs ONLY
    NEVER been good at metals

  24. David Silver

    Bait and switch
    Out of crude long
    Back to shorting it
    Damn should’ve stayed in bed (what a dummy)

  25. Walt

    Since its all about the dollar ,care to comment , Gary , on it rising to 99.2 this AM , a stone throw from breaking out to new highs .

    1. tulip

      David… you see the Nigerian currency crash piece on zero hedge…??
      Theres another .. on tfmetals now….

  26. victor

    Alex, with many countries oil dependent economy goes down and their currency goes down, US$’s going to be strengthening even more … do you see US dollar much higher like 120? and the gold should serve as save heaven too, why metals r falling? If I would see my country currencies falling I would by US$ or gold or real estate (damn it so expensive here in Toronto…, in my area piece of land 10X25meters or 50X120 feet cost 750 – 850,000$) good for you buying land in Bucharest, very smart move.

    1. AlexP

      heei, Victor, how are you? 🙂
      well, I would not bet on USX going to 120 in this 3-year cycle (we are now somewhere in its mid-point); it would be hard.
      I do not see weakening commodities as a reason for further USX strength because USX as an index does not depend too much on commodty-related currencies (even CAD , the only somewhat commodity currency in USX’ basket, as far as I remember, is not an entirely commodity currency because of a healthy economic mix in Canada). These commodity currencies are outside of the USX basket –> thus weakening currencies of Russia, Arab countries, Nigeria etc does NOT influence the value of USX at all but the other way round: USX strength lends weakness in commodities which further pressures those currencies.

      With the real estate…this is another matter because people are very subjective when it comes to it, they can feel that asset and get personal to it since they depend on it LONG TERM for a basic need on Maslow’s pyramid (shelter) –> this caters extensive support to real estate prices in the long run and that’s why they tend to get lower by a lower extent than other [intangible] assets.
      Best investment long term remains real estate 🙂 it is relatively liquid, provides an annual/monthly income via rent, it goes up, it cannot go bankrupt

    1. Dan

      Good advice. I feel like tearing my hair out every day while shorting the conventional market, but it’s been far more profitable than trying to catch bottoms in these dumpster fire commodities.

  27. Frank

    This is a Gold chart with the Ending Diagonal Triangle shown – It’s pretty clear and simple.
    if it comes true it should make a few new chartists out there –

    1. Mark

      Am I wrong or the rules of EWTA teach that the correction is usually formed by only 3 waves…?
      On this chart there are 5 waves down.

      1. Frank

        You are right. This is a correction, but only part of it. The orange letters, denoting 1-5 down are making up an A wave down. The following B and C waves will make it a 3-wave correction. A and C waves like this are 5’s, B’s are 3’s.

  28. Dan

    Funny how they keep the Qs and SPY green when everything else is collapsing to new lows. Feel like shorting with both fists again, but won’t.

  29. victor

    Thank you Alex, SLP earnings on 14th, let see what happened…, quite quiet today thogh…, I still follow closely RUBI, will buy it again before earnings, as I said my close relative working in IT company providing IT solutions for RUBI, very positive abt it…, will see.

  30. Walt

    Look at the stock market whipsawing everyone today . Up 1 % , down 1% , up 1% into the close . Good luck to those who are trading this .

  31. crawford

    watch the 1940 level … if we stay for 2 days, then BULL FLAG is intact. 1961 is next stop.
    By April we should retest 2100.

  32. tulip

    Art Cashin: “There is (hope for gold). Certainly on the charts it looks good. But my great hope would be if you begin to see some velocity in the money supply — if you begin to see some lending going on in the banking system. Because that will almost instantly bring a whiff of inflation with it and that will light a real bonfire in the gold market.”

  33. David Silver

    Complacent now are we?
    Oil continued truncation
    Sub $30……. $29.93
    New fresh 52 week lows tells a story
    Energy and the markets as a whole is no where at a bottom
    PPT BS is broken
    China 1st
    US now
    The bear has spoken
    Watch the fade
    Watch Shanghai
    Watch your dollars
    Everything in US except the dollar and bonds
    Short the peaks

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