28 thoughts on “MARKET WRAP JAN. 19

  1. BCJ

    We’ve sliced through the August lows on the S&P500 of 1867 on an inter-day basis last Friday and today while closing above that level on both days. If we close below that level, it could begin a waterfall decline, so perhaps the bounce is behind us (last Friday’s inter-day highs and today’s inter-day highs. The market wants to go lower. We’ll see if it does over the next few days.

  2. Alexandru Popovici

    the key to all markets has got to one rare juncture: does the ECB increase its QE tomorrow or not ?!
    USX’ support at 50dma underscores this situation.

    Looking forward to it –> I am feeling a quite successful trade will ensue out of that ECB decision regardless what it will be and how I will play it: either short or long gold

      1. Alexandru Popovici

        it’s just a hunch, not an opinion: miners are leading gold into IC decline as they expect ECB to increase its QE.
        Should ECB decide nothing tomorrow, miners will advance aggressively out of their ICL.

        Anyway, I will trade gold itself (short or long), I never trade miners, I only look at them occasionally as an additional setup for determining an entry on gold or not (I trade gold as a diversification to stocks).

  3. Gary Post author

    Gold appears to be preparing for the next leg up as the dollar moves down into it’s DCL.

    It’s entirely possible that the move in miners the last 6 days was smart money creating a stop run ahead of the next move up in gold. This would allow them to buy shares at fire sale prices ahead of the next big move.

    Remember this is the most heavily manipulated sector in the world. I take everything with a grain of salt as you just never know what moves are real supply and demand driven, and what moves are bait to set up traders for fleecing.

    1. mike trike

      I agree Gary. I think the volume of NUGT agrees with you too. Carpet bomb GDM on low volume and grap a record amount of NUGT at a huge discount!

  4. Chris

    Guys, stocks are crashing. And havent you seen what happen in 1987? Gold stocks crashed along. Bcos they are stocks. Gold instead held well. Rallied.

  5. Jacob

    Stocks are indead crashing, of course I got scared and closed my short position a day earlier than I wanted to, since that moment everything is in free fall. Still happy to see the carnage. Will go long tomorrow

    1. Gary Post author

      I’m going to suggest waiting till the S&P hits 1600 before trying to buy long. There is danger of an 87 style crash because of all the interventions to prop the market up over the last year. If one gets long right ahead of a major crash it will be painful as you would likely get caught in a big premarket gap down.

      1. Richard

        You are exactly correct. The yield curve is flattening, gold has built a base, and the stock indices are breaking major levels. With that aside, the secondary market indices are extremely horrible and the foreign majors appear to be ready for a breakdown. We should see a 1.5% 10YR and an index decline. What’s interesting is that there is a significant problem in the cards and people continue to be talking about going long stocks.

  6. Dan

    Top headline at CNBC is still ‘Porn’s biggest stars’. Lol. This is bear market, period. I cashed in many shorts too early but still holding TLT. Those trying to pick bottoms for a buy and hold? Good luck with that.

    1. Alexandru Popovici

      TLT is close to topping in its daily cycle.
      T-notes and T-bills via etfs IEF and SHY respectively may have produced swing highs yesterday.

      all that doesn’t mean that bonds cannot go higher, it only means that being long bonds now is risky.

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