I’m pretty much convinced gold has begun a new bull market, so it’s time to convert to bull market trading strategies and ignore the analysts still stuck in a bear market mind set.
Smart Money Tracker
I’m pretty much convinced gold has begun a new bull market, so it’s time to convert to bull market trading strategies and ignore the analysts still stuck in a bear market mind set.
Yeah buddy… I can’t believe the amount of fiat toilet paper units I’ve accumulated in two weeks time come tomorrow. Doll Hairs were converted into claims on future Doll Hairs by mining company shares, but will be converted in REAL MONEY (i.e. physical gold and silver) when the $GOLD:$XAU ratio makes an all-time low! Until then it’s time to be Old Turkey! :-$
Gary…Are you going to increase the allocation to gold miners?
The gold portfolio is already at 100%. it’s up to each individual how much of your total portfolio you want to allocate to metal trades.
My recommendation has been 10% for most people until we have confirmation the bear is over.
I suppose it is still too soon to short $GDX again, so that I could eventually cover in the single digits? 🙂
How do you know the manipulation is over? Can’t the PTB just step right back in and squash the breakout?
Nice videos you are producing Gary. You were bullish at the bottom, as was I. Rambus and the other “experts” were bearish as hell! One of the reasons I was bullish at the bottom was the record volume in NUGT. I sold my GDX options a day too early yesterday and sold my GDXJ position today almost at the top. I am still loaded with junior miners which I don’t trade.
Tomorrow I think I will buy DUST as a hedge. The massive volume the last couple of days plus the gaps on the miners has me thinking we are in store for a correction for a couple of weeks. Maybe the 2 week Chinese New Year period will be the duration of the correction? Either way congrats on your recent correct calls!
No need to get excited folks, manipulation is alive and well. Let’s not believe in fairy tales here.
Gold is in the last inning of a bear market rally setting itself up for $50 drop in one day coming up.
Armstrong on Gold Feb 3rd: “Only a weekly closing above 1208 would hint at a more sustained rally.”
Armstrong elsewhere in his blog Feb 4th: “Obviously, all the sales jobs they use to sell gold are fictional.”, and, “So beware of market false moves. This is just the pendulum swinging to both extremes. It must do so to create the energy for the opposite direction.”
Long live the golden bear, it is still alive and kicking why this site insists in burying an alive bear for?
BTDYFI ?
Yes, rambus was bearish. He is ok. He is a trend rider. But he cut, and reversed long. And took profit.
I was bearish until Dec. Turned bullish near the lows bcos of tax loss selling, and becos of January seasonality, I am glad i did..
I have taken profits, and now into silver with tight stops. For those who missed this run in miners, do not chase. If this is the new bull, this shall be its first 200 dma clearance. Yes, Hui can rally another 10-20%, but I guarantee u, it will pullback to test the 200, or if not 50, 100 MAs. Get long and scale in there.
On this, I disagree with Gary. He is 100% sure this is bull market. There is no 100%. The MA is not in bullish alignment. It will have some work done. So, its wiser to trade some. Buying and holding now is not wise. If u know how to trade, you would have booked in good profits. Then even when u have to buy a bit higher when bullish alignments are there, it is still alright. I feel this is a more prudent approach.
Of course, if you guys dont know how to trade, then yes, just take a gamble and hope Gary 100% is really 100% bull market.
I’m about 90% convinced the bear is over.
Gary, whilst I hope you are correct is there anything wrong as a conservative investor waiting to get into XAU or HUI for the resumption of the bull, by two consecutive monthly closes above the 21 MA?
Thanks
Well it just means you will miss the initial rally out of the bottom. This is where the largest and fastest gains occur in any bull market.
The HUI chart is unquestionably positive at this stage. As of yesterday it has now posted a bullish megaphone-bottom pattern. And I agree with you that some of the best gains can be made out of a long term bear market as it recovers. What I am less sure about is whether we are going to get a V-shaped price move which is what you are suggesting by saying buy and hold for 5 years or if we shall see a more traditional bottom formation. Have a look at the appended chart of Newmont mining as my example here and take note of the behavior on the chart between 1998 and 2000 which was the period of time that preceded the start of the last bull market. I think this is important to mention now because the actual basing pattern took more than two years to play out and resulted in a very clear double-bottom on that chart that subsequently alerted traders it was time to get long and get serious. As you can see there was quite a bit of price volatility during the basing sequence. This is much closer to what I expect is coming and will trade accordingly. That is to say that I don’t personally intend to hold any gold stock past its due date as it rises and falls before finally breaking out solidly to the upside. All this really means is that we should approach our trading with the same discipline we always do by not assuming anything about historical chart patterns and secondly by watching our technicals very closely for signs of the usual reversals.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=NEM+Interactive#{%22range%22:%22max%22,%22allowChartStacking%22:true}
Just as an aside Gary, when looking at the NEM chart I linked up above you will notice there is a very large bullish megaphone also in play that was created during the past year and a half. By now you no doubt have noticed I follow this kind of pattern seriously because of its bullish implications for price breakouts and the termination of bear markets. Anyway, if NEM manages to exceed its May 2015 peak on this cycle then I am turning all bull on this sorry gold market once and for all. That price point projects north of 30 dollars right now based on the pattern in play which is almost a 100% move upwards and while it sounds preposterous at this time it certainly cannot be ruled out based on my experience with these kinds of set-ups.
Utopia,
What I’m trying to tell you is that this isn’t a natural bear market like 2000. It’s an artificial one so you can’t expect the bottoming pattern to be the same.
Its possible this time will be different Gary. We can only wait and see. I am trading this anyway (short gold today as you know from a prior post where I was warning a reversal was at hand once we broke above 1150). In general though I rely on the charts, especially the long term charts, to keep behaving much as they always have. There is a nice consistency to those historical patterns that often gets lost in the day to day noise.
Gary .. GDX has not made a new high yet like HUI has, shouldn’t we wait till GDX makes a new high also?
Think of the gold market like holding a beach ball underwater. It can be done but sooner or later you run out of strength and the beach ball comes shooting out of the water and launches into the air.
That is what is happening with gold right now. IMO. The forces that have been holding gold underwater are running out of powder and gold is reacting violently back to the upside.
This is why I said the bear when it finally ended wouldn’t react like a normal bear market and just churn sideways and then gradually start to rise. When this bear ends it would do so violently as it breaks 3 years of manipulation trying to force it to do something it wasn’t meant to do.
Loved the false break down on the GDXJ weeks back
Gary: I’m about 90% convinced the bear is over
haha nope not a chance Mr Savage. We are heading back down in March imho.
Let the bear run it’s course we are years away from a new bull !!!!!
I’m 80% in gold&silver miners and will sell late Feb
The juniors are already down 90%. That is one of the most destructive bear markets in history. How much more downside do you think there is?
Wait for those Juniors to go bust, I’ll start investing then.
Ok, I appriciate your work btw Gary. I follow your posts on a daily basis.
You made exactly the same mistake last summer. Where you basically proclaimed the bear market was over without waiting for confirmation. I’m not saying the bear is over until gold holds well above $1200. Sure there are signs the gold chart looks to have the beginnings of a reversal, rounded bottom, not silver though. Simply calling a bottom without waiting for clear confirmation is pretty amateurish, . You can make the biggest gains at the beginning of a bull you can also make the biggest losses if it turns out just to be another bull trap.
In the mean time we are making good money whether or not this is a final bottom, just like we did out of the July bottom. While the perma bears just sit on the sidelines and watch it all pass them by.
Yes indeed, well said.
so if bear in gold is over then bull in usd also ?
That is a problem Zag. Honestly, I struggle with that one regularly. There are some really compelling reasons to believe that the dollar could soar based on what has happened during similar deflationary times in the past. Right now however the dollar is threatening to post a solid double-top and that too is convincing. Which way to turn? We need to just wait for a verdict one way or the other. The market will tell us soon enough so I won’t try guessing the final outcome without better evidence.
Sweet! I’ve seen the G-man ride an entire bull before in silver, only trying to get out a little late so losing some of the gains, but he managed to stay long and heavy for much more than just about everybody else. If he says its a new bull, then I will listen bc those are his most accurate calls.
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Gary,
No corrrection until April or May? Did I hear that right? I know that doesn’t include 1-3 day pullbacks. You’re thinking this ICL will last months?
I think the rally should last until the dolalr forms an ICL. That still isn’t due till the 3rd or fourth week in February. So I’m not looking for an intermediate top in gold until then.
Fed Rate raise in march with unemployment under 4.9%
now ( improved from 5% )
and strong wage growth 0.5%.
Those are the 2 criteria used by the fed to determine policy .
USX just put its DCL, Monday to deliver a swing low and by the end of next week we will also have the DCH.
I will pyramid my long-gold position to a full-weight sometime next week.
From the start I was at odds with the idea of USX having put its DCL on JAN28 and the watershed since Wednesday almost guaranteed a snap-reversal in USX today post jobs report –> food for a new daily-cycle advance.
Crummy numbers would have pretty much put a lock on the gold bull resumption , as they would have to have paused for a while on rate raises
150k jobs w/ and expectation of 190k takes all rate hikes off the table in 2016, period. Recession odds just jumped above 50% and may force the FOMC to cut rates, launch QE4, stop paying .50 bpts (%) on the $2.34 trillion in bank reserves sitting on their balance sheet or God forbid take us to NIRP so they can attempt to hit their 2% inflation target!
Remember basic algebra folks:
1% GDP – (-1% NIRP) = 2% Inflation
0% GDP – (-2% NIRP) = 2% Inflation
-1% GDP – (-3% NIRP) = 2% Inflation
-2% GDP – (-4% NIRP) = 2% Inflation
Remember folks, a negative times a negative equals a positive! Chew on that this weekend when you contemplate what banks are going to do with $2.34 trillion doll hairs when the FED starts taxing them for a “safe keeping fee”… After you chew on that, think about the fact that a mere $100 billion will buy every $XAU component and every share of GLD, GDX and GDXJ. ?
ALright man. I suspect gold and silver, and miners are done for few days. Hope gold drop $30, $40, so that I could buy back.
You’re not going to get gangbuster job numbers w unemployment at 4.9% ,
We’re at full employment
With now significant wage growth 0.5%
Unemployment & Wage growth are the 2 things they look at . Both are now strong .
They’ll raise in march .
At 22 days this should be the euros time to dip into a DCL and for the dolalr to rally for a few days. Maybe forming a bear flag. It’s an opportunity for gold to deliver a 1-3 day correction.
Exactly, Gary! This will be the moment I have been waiting for pyramiding to a full position in gold.
My first signal was USX falling below 98.60 as I touted here earlier this week (and indeed there was quite a battle at that support level on Wednesday) but I could not go to a full-monty metals position before a jobs report and with USX simply closing below its 200dma –> that undercutting of 200dma had to be a shakeout and USX was also getting in its time band for a DCL yesterday at day 17.
Alex,
What instrument are you using for exposure to gold? GLD?
See that spike up in the dollar just now? That’s right folks. The buck hit bottom, posted a nice reversal candle and then shot straight up like a rocket. Gold is now responding by sagging and miners are taking a hit to the crotch after so many of them bust through their upper Bollinger Bands yesterday. Don’t say you were not warned because that sign of a coming gold reversal was as obvious as they get even if we did not know the dollar would soar to make it happen. And this is why I discouraged chasing prices higher two days back. What we are looking for now is for a handle to form on that gold-chart cup. The next buying opportunity to enter mining stock is once this decline is complete (provided the too-obvious pattern does not break down before then). We will need more than a week to form that handle so this is a waiting game. In my case I will not overpay for any gold stock I want and prefer to let this slide run its course for the best entry possible.
Excellent one day call you made, even better at rubbing it in, but many here don’t care about the next 24 hours. How’s that working out for you, did you make the big bucks?
Yes I did Ralph. I wasn’t rubbing anything in either since I have no idea what any of the rest of you trade. Being new around here and all. I just assume you are tuned in to the markets in general so my post only sounds a little excited because, well…this was an exciting morning.
And I LOVE getting a call right. Don’t you?
As an aside Ralph, I make one-day calls every day. Most of them are right. Should I apologize?
time for a little Outside Up Day Humble Pie, Utopia!!!!!
Why? If you are talking about short-gold that trade is already finished. Are you one of those buy and hold guys by any chance?
I agree with Alex, my expectation is also a week ish of dropping. It may be sever to wipe the smiles of bulls. The best, is big and fast type of drop. That would make buying a lot safer.
Whatever it is Chris it just turned the stock market bullish again and we might be thankful for that. The DAX, for example, was flirting just points away from a nasty breakdown these last days and had gold risen for one more day and the dollar kept dropping we might all be expecting a Monday morning market meltdown. As it now stands US equity markets should all go green next week (even if it does not look obvious on the charts just yet).
Love the comment Gary on those trying to trade it will lose out to holders. So true.
It’s always that way. You can see it in the comments here. Traders are worried about a 1-3 day dip instead of focusing on the big picture. 4-5 years from now those that just bought and held will have made fortunes. Those chasing their tails trying to avoid every little dip will probably be lucky to make anything by the time the bull is over.
But you must admit that you often try to trade around the intermediate tops/bottoms, so that a 5 year hold might not jive with an intermediate top in a couple weeks?
There is no guarantee of a dip lasting 1-3 days Gary. Sometimes they last weeks and other times months. Nobody knows the future with absolute certainty. We only really differ on trading philosophy anyway. I am bullish miners now. Only as a trade though, not as a marriage. Each to his own I guess. What makes me crazy is losing a nice gain on a decline and never being able to get it back. If you are active you can pick up the trade again when the technicals tell you its ready to rise. So six f one and half a dozen of the other. There is more money made playing channels than just sitting and watching the paint dry and hoping your trades works out the way you hope. Just look at those guys who held since the top for 90% losses though! Who wants to have that happen. If I am down 5% I dump it, move on and live to trade another day.
I hope stocks rally. But still, it is a bear rally. Will be taking profits and reverse to short when stocks bounce.
For some ulterior reasons, maybe bcos of Yellen’s Hawpkins or dont know what napkins meeting next week, the banks are being bidded today. Hence i put it as a slight edge that bulls will win today. Maybe 55 vs 45% edge. Techs are being slapped by stupid LNKD.
yeap, Chris, the biannual speach of the FED Chairman is due on FEB10, on Wednesday at 10AM EST.
The moment to charge on gold at full throtle will most likely be as the market opens on that day or on Tuesday close to the close in case a small-volume down thrust occurs.
….that will overlap with an early DCH in USX too, being deliverd on day 2 or 3.
No sustainable rally in gold unless closes decisively above 1210 on weekly basis.
Bear market rally to end soon.
$50 drop in one day not impossible.
Metals making a top today Friday.
Gold may fail to move above $1173-$1210 this year.
Just like I warned, the surprises are coming to the upside.
“Only you can choose to give up your pot of gold”…
Actually gold may not do much. If stocks enter into a crash event, PMs may only outperformed slightly. Only when stocks bottomed, then PMs rally together.
Guys, go look at wtf VIX. Why is it not rallying today???? Actually that is lovely. Market will only bottom when Vix spiked really high. So this means, stocks still have lots to drop. Maybe to Garys crash scenario soon.
Hi Alex,
I studied a bit Kondratieff cycles. So we are in a winter phase and the worsts ahead of us…. Where do you see we are in a winter phase? as for me we are in middle of extended summer, July maybe August. It’s time to be in gold and agricultures for the next decades. I’m sure “paper gold” will disappoint many, just a matter of time…, hardly imagine one put NUGT on sell but there’s no bids…, I think global financial re-set will put silver on pedestal…
Ummm. You guys , the markets are selling off because of the increased likihood of a rate raise in march . Its simple as that .
Don’t get off the G-train, didn’t he tell us?!
The fed told you their plans , the bond guys refuse to believe it . Its a lock they raise in march . Perfect opportunity to normalize rates . They don’t want a parabolic stock market , real estate market or gold market .
Both bonds and stocks down? The world is coming apart at the seams!
I agree with your 2nd line. The world, humanity, history all in reverse since the 1990s really. Humanity is in a bear market.
BTDYFI ?
They won’t crash the market . Money managers always sit tight . They never sell ,
Well somebody is selling.
Retail is in and out and killed
Hi Gary…I follow you every day and you did a great job calling the bottom on gold thus far. However, last week you advised people to limit their gold exposure by the middle of this week. You predicted a pullback to somewhere around 1120 starting mid-week this week and going into next week. I did not see anything from you earlier in the week this week to change that recommendation. I did as you suggested and sold my gold ETF early on Wednesday and ended up losing a huge gain that day and Thursday. In the last video you said that all of us who sold on Wednesday made a big mistake (which we were following your suggestion from the previous week). My only suggestion is that…if you see things changing after making a prediction, then please let us know. We can then adjust our strategy. If you has said Tuesday that things changed and you thought we should stick with gold and the big pullback to 1120 previously predicted would not happen this week, then many of us would probably be a lot closer to retirement. I know that you don’t have this down to the day…but its not cool to tell us to limit exposure to a pull back by mid week and then tell us after the fact that we all made a big mistake following your lead.
It wasn’t me. No way would I sell during a buying stampede. Haven’t you been paying attention?
I saved a chart from “ATTACK ON GOLD: GOOD OR BAD” you did last week but can’t post it. You definitely made the statement to limit the exposure by mid-week this week because a pull back to about 1120 should happen by mid week next week. I check your posts every morning and I didn’t see anything from you this week to say “we have a buying stampede…don’t sell just yet”. I am still hoping you were right that we will see a decent pullback to 1120 next week. I can then get out of the inverse ETF and then back into the one that follows gold for another leg up.
Hi Gary…Looking back I do see a “Chart of the Day” on Tuesday that says we may have a possible buying stampede in progress with possible 1-3 day pullbacks. I put that together with the previous correction prediction and stuck with a Wednesday sell. I am so used to seeing gold fluctuate $10-$15/day at times that I figured your original prediction to sell on Wednesday was still good (I didn’t take you buying stampede as don’t sell just yet”. Still learning on this stuff everyday. Next time I see you say “Buying Stampede”…I will know what you would do. I will keep following, that is for sure.
Didn’t you listen to that video? I said the attack was a setup to allow smart money to add more shares by panicking retail traders out. That means you buy the dip. Not sell.
If you watched the video he actually went over the HUI with first possible resistance around 150 with possible retrace to 130. We are not to 150 yet. 142.50 today. He said to expect 1 to 3 day pull backs. It could be a 4 to 5 day pullback. He can’t hold your hand. Economic data points and the Fed are going to effect all the rises and pull backs. At some point you have to stay nimble and adjust your trades or use Gary as a great set of data points to help you find your way.
Thanks Gary
I am so happy to hear you talk openly about what is going on with the manipulation in the precious metals. The reversal to proper valuations is not going to be orderly. Many people who rode this downtrend and remain entrenched in the bear market mentality are being caught off sides. I think of it as someone who what their money making pet gold bear…..not so much. Their at risk for getting their heads bitten off.
All the dissention is encouraging. Very few are seeing what is happening and that there is a change in this market’s behavior. It is going to be a very hard market to trade. More money will be made staying on the bull for the entire ride than getting fancy with trying to jump in and out.
Great work Gary. Great call.
I always wonder whether the crash in china stocks last year is going to be the sample that we are going to see in Nasdaq when nasdaq drops. Lets see.
How come no ones posting what the commercials are doing with gold this past month ? Are they short or long gold ?
Gary ?
Here is the COT chart for gold as of last week. New one out in 4 hours or so.
http://snalaska.com/cot/current/charts/GC.png
Retail & hedge funds long . I know that
Scaled in long gold at 1158 with one quarter of a full position after having bought one half at 1115 last week.
I love to buy into ROCK-SOLID strength!
Keep the remaining quarter as cash for Tuesday evening 🙂
Nice!
Gary,
What about the A-B-C-D waves?
victor
February 5, 2016 at 4:42 pm
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Hi Alex,
I studied a bit Kondratieff cycles. So we are in a winter phase and the worsts ahead of us…. Where do you see we are in a winter phase? as for me we are in middle of extended summer, July maybe August. It’s time to be in gold and agricultures for the next decades. I’m sure “paper gold” will disappoint many, just a matter of time…, hardly imagine one put NUGT on sell but there’s no bids…, I think global financial re-set will put silver on pedestal…
Victor, just scaled in gold to a full long position, no use waiting for Tuesday.
I will answer to your question tomorrow.
Good night, my friend!
Thanks Mike
the only concern i would have is that when the markets finally crash later this year it drags gold down like it did in 2008 gold lost $340 that year im just saying be aware.