The leveraged metal portfolio is already back over +100%.
Before this intermediate rally is over I expect the leveraged portfolio will be up somewhere between 400-1000%.
How stupid are all the naysayers starting to look now?
In bull markets all timing mistakes get corrected.
Yes we got sidetracked by the middle of the night reversal on election night. The powers that be acted to prevent the stock market from opening limit down and it infected the gold market, causing the intermediate cycle to stretch an extra 10 weeks, but it hasn’t stopped the bull market, and it isn’t going to stop us from making money.
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For the gloomists, run a chart of gold vs. audusd and maybe you can see it better.
Gary, I also bull but I do feel that your statement does not support the cycle we see for gold mostly ICL 5-6 months considering you a cycle trader and mostly12 months YCL . You can look at yearly cycles being mostly 12 months with the YCL end December. Saying that it stretched 10 weeks (2.5 months?), than admit your mistake that rather October (10 months would have been far too early. It really feels like you still trying to blow smoke up someone’s ass and excuses does not stack up!
Sorry mostly 11-12 months
No the natural YCL would have occurred in Oct. The intervention to prevent the stock market from opening limit down ended up stretching the gold cycle.
I guarantee if stocks had been allowed to complete their left translated intermediate cycle gold would already be well above 1400 by now.
Ultimately it isn’t going to change anything. In fact it just added a lot more fuel to this intermediate rally.
No one believed me when I said that gold was being manipulated (we now have proof I was correct) and that the manipulation when it broke would result in an exceptionally violent rally out of the bear market bottom. The baby bull tacked on 180%. I think everyone can now admit I was correct and we were one of the few that rode that rally all the way from the bottom because I understood what was happening. Most sat on the sidelines through a big chunk of the baby bull because they didn’t recognize what was driving the rally.
It is great to know that you did do 100% and just seem to me that the correction going back years that YCL was at the right time. I do not doubt interference. Thanks however for great info and tapes. All get it wrong due to GOLD being the beast of the puppets. All need to change their outlook of actually being correct would be in these PM
By all means when you have made 400-1000% brag away. Show a little restraint ,at least till this rally is proven, at the moment its not even breaching resistance at 1160….
The miners have broken their intermediate trend line. That is the confirmation the YCL is complete.
Are you saying that a 100% gain isn’t worth a little congratulations? I don’t know anyone who would be disappointed with a 100% gain.
Restraint my ass, BRAG away Gary, you deserve it. Unlike the TA know it all’s here I for one appreciate all the info you provide on a daily basis, people think this is so easy go start your own web site and see how fast you burn out, Gary on the other hand keeps on chugging along…2017 looks to be a great profitable year.
Are you saying 100% is a decent profit with triple leveraged ETFS? Nugt has ranged between 3-34 in one year thats 1000% if you got timing right . Congrats you made 100%…My point is brag about your successes, not your dreams…
Excellent point!
NUGT just said screw $8 i like the $9 handle better lol
https://s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/snapshots/w/wzQlPbUO.png
Gary has changed his positions (blaming manipulators to elections to USD to bonds to ustify why his cycle count and analysis has been wrong) several times since I am visiting this blog site for the last 3-4 months to suit his case (mostly 2-3 days time span)…….Until gold breaks up above $1350….he really should humbly watch what Mr. Market is saying before saying he is right and others are wrong.
No one stuffs their “portfolio” with triple leveraged funds….they are meant for trading account. So correct terminology would help!
Thank you Gary. Sold [email protected]
I am happy with a profit of more than 50%, Adding this to the the 30% I made on previous shorting of jnug makes it a good pay for a three months of fun.
Gary, you may very well be right that the party has just begun. But, I am not brave enough to have a few more shots of rum while I am already enjoying what I had. Thanks for your help. And, congratulations on your excellent call.
If you had a nice cushion on your position then why not let it run?
That’s how the big money is made. Not with dinky little day trades.
We have our stops at break even now with a huge safety cushion. I don’t intend to mess with them until the weekly stochastics get overbought.
Thanks Gary. Your advise is highly appreciated. I guess I should learn to be more patient and have some courage.
To tell you the truth I don”t know the reason why I am so impatient when it comes to multiplying the gains. Maybe i am just afraid of heights. But, then I am happy with the profit.
I will wait for a another opportunity if and when it arrives.
Just few hours later, you say (in a post comment below) you sold your position and took profits (whatever that means, because you seem to change on a dime) and waiting for Tuesday ……confused ?!?!?!
If gold doesn’t hold 1140 here, we will be seeing new lows pretty soon.
Well at the moment silver has yet to breach $16.30 and gold is struggling with $1160 so don’t get too excited…
Yep, things usually run straight up for days with no pullbacks especially after good gains.
Vin,
I got back my NUGT lot at $8.57 so I made $0.2 on it. Now I am back with 3 1/2 lots.
“We were told to not miss a trend”
“You know, it is a bull market”
I wish you good luck. I am out of jnug now.
did you buy [email protected] to-day or was it in the after-hour market?
zkotpen
Thanks for referred book. I looked for it but didn’t buy it yet. Will read it in principle…, because try to get it cheep online I catch such a sticky virus that has to wipe out whole computer…, I remember that book for a long time… ) :
Correction. + 114%
gary, you advised to get out of gold at 1275 on stop as you apparently did. Don’t really know when you got up, but gold is up about 30 bucks since low of a week ago or so, therefore how do you calculate 114% gain on miners??? From your low entry past January or from a week ago. Very garbled outcomes.
Ya no cause for a celebration here nope ha ha ha ha
https://s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/snapshots/x/XmLHlpPP.png
It is tempting to get way ahead of price using past price structures. Gold is still struggling at 1160. Let us wait and see how things will look like when it rises to 50 day ma at 1210. Until then, anyone can put forward any opinion.
The situation in January 2016 was significantly different. 20 day ma was already rising and beginning to move above 50 day ma and price pulled back to crossover point at 1071: text book buy signal.
Now situation is different. Price just moved above still declining 20 day ma , 50 day ma is still declining and way above 20 day ma. So, what we have now is a price structure in transition and a nascent uptrend.
A clear uptrend is in place when price>ma20>ma50 , both ma20 and ma 50 rising. That was the case for gold by 3rd week of January, 2016.
Agreed and if gold can’t continue the rally today, in my opinion it doesn’t look all that bullish.
hui moves above 50 day ma and 20 day ma begins to curl up. We are beginning to move in the right direction. Next hurdle is at 200 day ma. When we get there, both 20 day and 50 day mas would be turning up. Encouraging, so far.
Does anyone have opinions on defense stocks? With Trump wanting to upgrade US military capabilities perhaps this sector is a good buy ? Thoughts?
dear Gary, in my humble opinion, all yr problems will come because u have no idea of what Dollar is going to be in the next couple of years.. and its lconnection with metals. I see its useless, at this point, to speak about it in this blog…. ego and stubbornness .. are worst company for traders. good luck
Do you have a crystal ball and know where the dollar will be in the future? Or are you just letting recency bias tell you the trend will remain up indefinitely?
http://www.investing.com/analysis/king-dollar-could-be-topping-out,-says-joe-friday-200171123
JOE FRIDAY is a total hit and miss with his charts. like flipping a coin.
Another day another call for the yearly cycle low. Right when I was feeling good about holding onto JNUG here comes the rug pull right on schedule.
These cycle calls are killing my account, the bids don’t ever seem to come in for more than 1-3 days and usually getting in on day 2.
The 1 hour TSI tagged 100 on GDX. That’s going to need to cool off a bit before it can go higher. Next week should be sideways or corrective.
Too bad I did not short jnug when I sold it at 7.17. Had I done that I would have made another 10%+ in a couple of hours.
I was going to short it but then I wasn’t sure if it will not rise to 7.50. Had it risen to 7.50 I would have shorted. it. Now it is too risky.
many passed through that plays, eventually you’re going to be punished…
Sorry Victor. But, could you please explain my crime before punishing me.
Your arrogance know no bounds. Based on what you say here you seem to have lost a plenty yet your cockiness is limitless. You know what, you deserve it. And, be assured more is coming to you unless you change your behavior.
Gary is so right that most of the traders miss out. And, I may add because of the kind of attitude you have.
I have been posting my trades here for all to see and comment; and I up 80%+ in about three months! And, you?
Thanks Gary. Hope you’re right, happy new year!
Is that it?
ras it was quite a firework. Wasn’t it? Nothing lasts for ever.
Those who get attached to good times have problems enjoying bad times. A balanced approach lets one enjoy it both ways, no pun intended. jnag was up more than 50% in less than a week and guess what? It wan’t enough for many!
Probably, that is it for now. Time will tell.
ras, goldbugs have gone into hiding and that is a good sign for gold. But, I guess it is probably a bit early to get in. It is also a function of 10 years yield. Let us hope that it does not rise much.
I sold jnug @7.17 (see above) this morning and am willing to go in again if an opportunity arises otherwise i will look somewhere else.
vin, great thinking. There is always something moving, up or down.
Yes Ras, that’s it for this year. Gold, silver and miners are for the most part flat, flaccid or turning down. Its not all that exciting at the moment and the super bullishness that was displayed on this site yesterday has evaporated again like a hormone rush gone sour once the sex is over.
There was no carry through unfortunately and buyers of yesterday are wondering where the action went. We have peaked though and are now set for another pullback in miners although I can’t determine how deep it might be just yet.
Hi, Ped. I was expecting this and prepared for it. Many other posters too, like vin. Price is king and everything else is noise.
I am happy to hear that. You seem to me one of the people here who follows the technicals seriously and watch them yourself rather than let others spoon feed the information. I can respect that. It makes all the difference in the world to do your own work. Especially when so many people who post just make up whatever goofy thing that pops into their heads and then pass it off as though its expertise or divine enlightenment from the angels.
HUI Musings:
Here are some HUI and HUI:Gold Ratio charts as we close out the year.
Happy New Years everyone.
https://surfcity.co/2016/12/30/hui-musings/
Interesting.
Euro is going to take a dive early in January. That means the dollar will be going up again and presumably gold falling.
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=d1&t=6E
That would be nice. If it happens, let us take advantage of it.
Indeed.
Notice that the euro has broken both its major 2015 support levels. Very bearish sorry to say. This chart is a whole lot easier to read than the US dollar right now and the answer is more conclusive.
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=6E&p=w1
Gary you seem to be going back into your over confident mode. I have seen this happen to you too many times. The market finally turns your way and then you go on and on about how right you were and how much you made and will make. Frankly to me I see a nice bouce in gold..but compared to how far we have fallen since the summer its still a pretty pathetic bounce. Once the real markets open again in January would not shock me at all if gold reverses and gives up much of its recent gains..or goes to new lows..or chops around. I would at least wait a few weeks or a month or two before declaring that gold is up up and away.
Yeah, this is getting a bit out of hand. Also, I’m not really buying Gary’s read of the cycles. I think that the worst part about reading some of this stuff is that there is a ton of conflicted reporting of positions. This sort of the “market is going down, but it’s oversold” for weeks on end, then it bounces sharply and suddenly it’s implied that he is long from the lows…Maybe he was, how the heck would I know…but GDX tagged the declining channel line top on the open this A.M. I’m personally just playing it with options spreads as getting stuck in NUGT or some other leveraged ETF is just far too risky in a market that is still in a downtrend by any objective measure.
Great to hear you are watching the channel line too, Jeff. Its one technical that seems to get lost in the noise of complicated TA all too often but its also one of the easiest to read. NUGT also tagged the upper channel and failed as did a number of other important charts. As an aside, I read upper channels during a decline by first identifying what the lower bound is doing. The reason is that as charts start to exhaust on the downside they will begin to curl upwards and the reference point can get lost. Basically, I need to find a channel that is intact after a few cycles. When one like this fails though its usually pretty bearish and price will want to seek the lower bound at least one more time.
I agree and the price action today shows just how aggressively people are selling into that fakeout breakout spike just above the upper channel line. This is why I cringe when the high fiving starts happening just as it runs into resistance (especially after 6 weeks of nothing but bearish PA). It just encourages people to hang on to their underwater longs.
Roger that. Definitely cringe-worthy. I suspect many will hold right into what looks like an obvious decline. Just the fact that the inverse ETF’s stopped short of technical support failure gives me pause to consider odds favour a New Year decline in gold prices and fast losses on the leveraged ETF’s as they reverse once more.
Just for the fun of it; Do you ever try taking a technical read on the technicals?
The RSI chart for example? Try this on the GLD to see what I mean. OK, this is getting off the beaten path but if you run a line across the RSI line chart (both top and bottom) and find the channel just as you would on a price chart, what you see is that the GLD -RSI has been falling since December last year (daily chart natch) and currently about to hit its peak despite the fact its only in the middle of its potential range.
The RSI on GLD is way to high anyway for there to really be sentiment levels of 98% bears like we heard a few days back. That’s already old news. In the past two weeks relative strength on the miners and gold has really taken off again and I think this is almost enough to trigger some cherry picking and pruning of branches by the bear crowd as the larger trend in gold is still down.
Also notice that GDX spiked higher on the open, hit the declining 200day MA and the upper channel line for the downtrend. Still showing cycle lows into march 2017.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/Oqakxw7n/
My mistake, declining 50day MA
vin
“” Sorry Victor. But, could you please explain my crime before punishing me.”” …. what?!! I meant jumping in and out eventually you’ll be punished by missing your entry and buy with higher price .
That’s the explanation for short thinkers…
You still don’t understand. Do you? Either explain why was my trade wrong or stay quiet. Even better look at your performance Mr. “long” thinker!
gold parameters set, recent low around 1120 and high 1160 or so. Waiting to see which comes first. Short lived rally menacing however especially with follow thru on dollar weakness. Best to watch and not get whipsawed unless you like throwing the dice. Still believe the equity laggards like biotech, pharma need to go up with rotation into laggards before equity market goes down in size. Looking at I BB Labu for signs of life on this pullback for possible scalp.
I would have loved to have seen follow through for gold, silver and miners from yesterday. Oh well not gonna happen. I believe things are going to be hard to understand until Trump takes office and that is
none-too-soon. This current episode of sanctions against Russia for interfering with the election is complete BS. If the Russians truly did interfere with the elections and caused Trump to win, then IMO, the American People owe Russia and Mr. Putin a huge debt of gratitude! I hope they can influence the future elections of the likes of John McCain and Lindsey Graham and get the people to vote those two assholes out. Happy New Year let it be safe, healthy, happy and profitable.
There was a warning sign yesterday that the metals might be attacked today. We took profits today and will wait to see what Tuesday brings.
Smart move, Gary.
Yeah, JDST is smoking hot heading toward late day as gold struggles to stay afloat 1150 and silver at sub 16. Its a beautiful day in the neighborhood but with portents of worry as VIX shoots up suddenly leaving us to wonder how much worry really exists for equities early in the New Year. Not a bad idea to stand on the sidelines Gary.
Not a bad idea at all.
Why Tuesday? What about Monday?
Holiday, Robert.
Oops forgot. Ped I know you are bearish but we should b able to break the 22s level on GDX in another week or 2
I would put 17.20 on your radar if January metals go soft as I suspect. The declines are not over yet unfortunately and too many people got bullish prematurely expecting a replay of early 2016.
I am going to start calling you EF HUTTON. I need to start listening. I think I should have considered yesterday a gift and sold everything for now. I did liquidate the majority of my JNUG today. Held some through the weekend. Lost a lot of profit though.
congratulations Gary, for another good call. I hope you were as lucky as I was.
gary…. you are slipping big time….
your video sings a very different song..
if you change yr tune w/in 24 hrs….
you will lose any audience.
at least owe up —
Hey Bill. Sorry buddy. But you were wrong about gold yesterday and I was right (again). Cheer up though. There is always next year. Stay out of the punch bowl there pal. Try and have a good New Year and leave the keys at home.
The Massive Volume in NUGT today speaks volume…
That’s selling pressure egg-nog, not people buying with both fists. They are dumping the shares they picked up yesterday. Sheesh! Read a chart man.
Pedestrian, as matter of fact there were huge volumes on both sides. For a couple of hours it was buyers. Remember initially it did go up with large volume. Later on it was all selling as you say.
Quite honestly, when JNUG reaches its high of $31/sh then there will be something to really talk about.
Everything else is just child’s play.