Hopefully the stock market is going to be allowed to continue correcting. This will clear out bullish sentiment and allow the stock market to complete both an intermediate and yearly cycle low. Coinciding with this, the dollar is poised to continue lower and complete a failed daily cycle.
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Surly 94 on the dollar would mean gold somewhere between 1264-1300.
I would think so but something fishy is going on with the stocks. Are they trying to keep the metals contained by suppressing the mining stocks?
Weird. Juniors are just barely positive with gold near 1250.
Gary,
It’s clear you expect a big drop in the dollar- like 4 or 5% in a week. Have you ever seen miners not respond to such a move? I don’t recall seeing that, and we have been “managed” forever.
The rate hike is behind us now so I don’t think there will be an intervention in the markets until they have fallen much further. Why would the FED care to prop up the markets at this point?
Looks like perhaps the S+P has bottomed as dip buyers coming in. Don’ think this has anything to do with the FED coming in to prop up the market.
Don, I see you got out of the miners yesterday. Should we be getting out for sure? I have a little profit but don’t like what they are doing. Is it a trap?
JJ, I outlined my reasons yesterday as to why I got out of the miners. I think they could be vulnerable in the event of the dollar bouncing, thereby knocking down the PMs, especially if there is further downside of the stock market. However, if you are not leveraged and wish to hold, the miners will probably be moving up again at some point although there could be a draw down that lasts a few weeks or more. I guess it’s your decision what your investing time frame is. I definitely would not want to be holding any leveraged mining ETF right now. Good luck.
With the minimal to no upside in miners with spot increased, then surely a massive drop is going to ensue with any spot drop. It is surely a big divergence and not one I am happy about. Volume is all but dried up at this point. Not really sure what to think. Seems fishy to me. Not sure who is selling other than shorts adding??
It seems that the cycle of this thing playing out to run a full cycle as Gary said to top taking a year before there is no plaster for cracks is suported by new data Jeff L. Yastine states: The folks at S&P Global Ratings recently analyzed the data on subprime car loans. They found that, as of January, 9.1% of these accounts are in default on their payments.
That’s the worst rate since 2010, when the recovery started.
And the trend appears to be picking up steam, since in December, 8.5% of subprime car loan holders were in default, and a year earlier, 7.9% were behind on payments.
It’s a troubling issue when you consider the bigger picture…
More than 6 million people are behind on their auto payments by at least 90 days or more.
Subprime auto loans account for about 20% of today’s car purchases.
The recovery rate (repossession and sale) on subprime auto loans is
34.8%, the worst in over seven years.
But there’s more. A decade ago, the average length of a car loan was 63 months…
Today’s average car loan runs 68 months.
And according to Automotive News, larger numbers of car buyers are now taking out loans of 73 to 84 months in length!
The risk here isn’t so much another economic collapse like the one that blindsided banks in 2008. Auto lenders and ratings agencies see all the same data. They know the risks and can adjust (and raise the cost of taking out a risky loan).
To me, this is yet another big, bright warning sign of the problem that I’ve been warning you about: Americans are carrying more debt on their personal balance sheets than they can afford to pay.
But with the Fed raising interest rates last week (and intent on raising rates at least twice more this year), it makes the very loans that have powered the U.S. economic rebound (such as it is) that much more expensive.
As long as interest rates remain low, people can keep extending terms, rolling over more and more of what’s owed. But everything has its limits.
If the recent subprime car loan data is any indication, we may be at those limits already.
Credit (debt) is too easy now. When I was growing up the only credit available, if you had nothing to back it up with (collateral), was lay away. You put a deposit of cash on your item and made a payment every so often and when you paid it in full you walked away with your purchase debt free. For mortgages, if you didn`t have 20% hard cash down, don`t even bother applying. Pretty much the same for car loans, no trade in or no cash up front, no deal.
Today, everybody uses plastic. I watch people swipe their cards for their cappuccino and pack of smokes and I annoy everyone behind me when I ask the cashier if cash is acceptable. MY wife and I still laugh about the “disposable” cars we used to buy in the first 20 or so years of our wonderful, and still going strong, 45 years of marriage. Now kids need a NEW car when graduating from high school. Most likely signed for by the parents.
Anyway, I wonder what will happen when (not if) there is another “bank holiday” and no one can swipe their card or actually go into a bank to with draw cash. ( like Greece perhaps?)
I always remind people that there is a reason casinos use chips instead of cash and that a pre 1965 quarter will still buy a gallon of gas.
Ehh its like anything else, you can have anything you want in life as long as you pay for it, when you cant pay for it they take it back. You cant get blood from a stone.
Weak stock market bounce. Bought lots more LABD today at 11.15. Going to make a bundle. I can feel it in my toes.
Hope you guys are doing well.
I got rid of half the JNUG shares to keep only 5K.
JNUG has been punished by it can jump a good $2 anytime.
Day trading today helped about +$2.5K.
I’m liking the push up in the PMs but the miners are dragging their asses.
A bump up in the dollar would not be good for the miners.
Goild, you sold your platinum, right?
I just bought more platinum moments ago.
I doubled down on my original 1500 JDST this morning then sold 1800 later to bring my cost basis down to 13.28 from 14.45. Still holding 1200.
Whatever happened to TraderDan? Does anyone know?
I went to his site a month or so ago, maybe more, and it happened to be when he said he refunded all his subs their money and was basically out of there. No idea what it was all about.
Maybe personal, who knows.
KHT, thanks. From your above nostalgic post, I also remember those days. 👍
++…:)
Mahendra Sharma, the astrologer, has told his clients to sell gold today. Take it for what it’s worth. 😀
I would say he has a 50% chance of nailing it.
Bigdaddy, if you like triple leveraged products, have a look at SOXS, the inverse 3X ETF for the semiconductors. They and the Techs are what is holding the market up and should eventually go down hard. That said, any recovery in the S&P will crush SOXS. I am holding some that is currently underwater. Bought a bit more today at 7.85 Good luck on that LABD BTW.
The difference between platinum and gold is $280+ today. Pretty incredible. I didn’t think I would see that again but here it is.
Gary, yes USD is still to go lower but…not until it goes up a bit first on EUR and GBP selling 🙂
Commodities other than PM are already off their lows – they alongside stock market sniff a rising dollar till early April 😉
Don,
Yes I sold them yesterday.
Tomorrow we may have a gold retracement. USD threatens to bounce.
Dollar ready for a bounce, PMs stalling. DSLV is starting to look right.