172 thoughts on “Gold – DCL still lies ahead

  1. MegaMind

    sure looks like 1260 is firming up as support for gold…it may not go below that value on this dcl…

  2. vin

    Gary, you advised us to forget about gold for the time being and invest in tqqq. Then why are we wasting our time discussing gold when we are not invested in gold?

    1. vin

      piece of cake. it will cross 1500 by the end of october. And, if it does I think I deserve a nice shot of scotch, while there is sooooo much pessimism right here on this gold site. LOL!

      And, why are they so negative? Simple! They are well versed in the SCIENCE of “investment”, in particular gold and golds. LOL!

  3. Don

    Pedestrian was doing the “I am talking out of both sides of my mouth” thing this morning. Maybe gold has topped, maybe in hasn’t and Mr Day Trader is not going to tell us when he’s going short just like he didn t when he supposedly went long USLV because, well that’s a PRIVATE thing for him.
    Folks, this man is 100% fraud. He is no day trader.
    I remain long sliver and the miners. I have no ‘privacy’ issues with saying that. Does anyone else here have those kind of issues?

    1. RTTPD

      Long silver and the miners also – plus two oil stocks 450k total

      Don’t have the trading expterise as some here – but I have a whole lot more patience.

  4. Don

    BTW, I am confident that gold will punch thru $1300 and go higher than anyone expects. Will it happen today? I don’t know but it’s coming soon. The fact that so many are just ‘watching’ is very encouraging.

    1. Christian

      Not before Gold drops into a DCL Don. You gotta step outside of your comfort zone when it comes to your analyzes, whether short or long term trading.

      Markets are dynamic and you need to match their velocity πŸ™‚

      1. Nada

        As I mentioned, the “what cycle are we in” is open for debate. We are potentially in the second DC and if that is the case, then we have much further to go on the calendar before the hunt begins for DCL.

        1. Christian

          Open for debate? For you maybe, Lol!

          We are most definitely not in a 2nd daily cycle my friend.. We haven’t even printed the 1st daily cycle low. Gary’s right.. Precious metals are whipsawing everyone into confusion!

          No disrespect — but you need to spend more time studying Cycle Analysis first Nada before you can walk the talk.

          1. Nada

            As I stated yesterday, the second daily cycle was not my original though. It is coming from ChartFreaks, and will all due respect I think Alex may be a bit more polished on cycles than yourself.

            Is he correct? I dunno, but I was just putting the possibility out there.

          2. Gary Post author

            Alex is pretty good, too bad he won’t do a real time portfolio, but like most cycle analysts he still hasn’t caught on to the fact that cycles evolve and the timing bands elongate.

            They have to or the system would work too well, and we all know that the market never allows anything to work indefinitely. πŸ™‚

          3. Christian

            So true Gary πŸ™‚

            Like I was telling Don this morning.. The Market is constantly evolving and you have to evolve with it.

          4. Nada

            To be clear, I was not saying he was more polished than you Gary – just Christian πŸ™‚ I am just firing one back over to him in a game of friendly banter. When someone uses words like “definitely” in regards to the market, then that looks rather amateurish, because as we all know – no one knows with certainty.

            Regardless, the second daily cycle theory is interesting and is something that should not be dismissed outright.

          5. Gary Post author

            Absolutely right. The market can do anything. And if GDX can break through its intermediate trend line I would at least get a starter position so it can’t run away from me just in case this time is different. Then I would look to go to full positions at the next DCL.

          6. Christian

            I DEFINITELY agree with what you just said Nada πŸ™‚

            Perhaps I should have used the word UNLIKELY — Goddamn amateur I am.

            It’s just that I’ve never seen a daily cycle top on day 16 and then drop into DCL 5 days later, which btw barely made a whimper. It had all the characteristics of half cycle low.

            Ps: A daily cycle should normally last 25 days + especially in today’s manipulated markets.

          7. Nada

            Yes its odd for sure. After that mild ICL, I am not so sure I want to throw out the possibility. Gold may be just that bullish? Its all speculation and I think gold remains in trouble until it breaks the last high. I will feel much better in my short term positions if that happens.

          8. Spanky

            My goodness the commodity complex just cannot catch a break. I will be surprised if the July bottom holds. Yes it could be setting up a double bottom reversal, but would you bank on it? If the July low gets taken out, The January 2016 low will be within spitting distance.

            http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GCC&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p11486764258&a=539999771&listNum=1

            Relative to the stock market, commodities are at AT LEAST a 40 year low (my chart only goes back that far)!

            Even more amazing is that the $crb in absolute terms is lower today than in 1982 by a significant margin. That is absolutely nuts. So much for the quantity theory of money and inflation at least with respect to commodities.

    1. vin

      Maybe? Oh yes! Maybe! But, then there is no hope for gold. But, then maybe! May be in spite of all this mambo jumbo gold will clime walls of worries in near future. But, then may be it won’t. LOL!

      I would ask a simple question. Has there ever been a better time to invest in gold in last 50 years, or may be even 200 years?

    2. Don

      Keep in mind that triple tops rarely turn out to be actual tops but rather a setup for a push higher.

      1. Pedestrian

        Utter nonsense. People, take care listening to trading amateurs like the poster above who confidently make false statements that can lead you astray. A triple top represents three failed attempts to break through overhead resistance and typically leads to a decline following the third failed attempt.

        What it means is that the bulls have been unable to push price in the direction of choice and so sellers take the advantage. We do not yet have a third failure however as that can only be known when price falls below the lowest of the prior valleys.

        If gold does violate the lower support level a sharp decline can follow. Bulkowski claims these average 19% so it can be significant. The current set-up implies a tradeable decline if the rising July/August support channel is broken. Since that has not happened as of the time I wrote this post I have not yet entered the trade as one of the major conditions have not yet been met.

        Triple Tops according to Investopedia
        http://thepatternsite.com/BustTripleTops.html

  5. Bigdaddy

    Well, i did it again. I sold all my silver holdings way too soon, covered my Netflix short way to soon. Old habits die hard. On a brighter note, everything is going my way today, at least, so far. Still hanging on to my 4000 HGU, Getting smarter at this fun game. Stay tuned for more analysis after i wake up some.

  6. Don

    SM internals are still not good. The number of stocks above their 200 DMA continues to shrink even after the rally of the past few days. Expect more SM weakness.

  7. Nada

    Don’t look now, but the impossible is happening – the market is try to correct in front of Jackson Hole symposium. BTW, beautiful spot to hold a meeting. I was there in 2012 for a nice trek through Yellow Stone in the snow. Lets bang on that 50ma a bit more and break it.

    1. Gary Post author

      I actually covered this scenario in last nights report. If the market makes a lower low and breaks the June low then we would get our ICL now instead of in October. That would create the energy for the vertical phase of the bubble to begin.

      Either way if the ICL occurs over the next several days or if it gets pushed out to October the next ICL will build the energy for the vertical phase of the bubble to begin.

      It’s been my opinion that it would come in October because I think the PPT will do everything they can to keep the market inflated ahead of Jackson Hole. But I would love to see the market break free, at least temporarily and give us the ICL over the next several days and finish in the normal timing band for an ICL and DCL instead of stretching out to October. That would pave the way to rally for the rest of the year.

  8. Sassybabe

    You make so many predictions that I can’t keep track of them all. Seems like most are just guessing. LOL!

    1. Gary Post author

      LOL I have news for you. No one knows the future. We are all just guessing based on the tools we’ve found work for us. No tool works 100% of the time. So no one will ever be 100% correct.

      1. Sassybabe

        Gary
        I was referring to Spanky, not you. I guess I should always put a name to a post. Sorry about that.

  9. Gary Post author

    The close today is important. If they stop the selling and create a reversal then I’d say we have to wait for October for the ICL. If we close down hard today then we get our ICL sometime in the next 5-8 days with an undercut of the June low.

  10. Gary Post author

    Don’t look now but oil may have completed it’s DCL. Energy has been the culprit holding the market down. If oil has completed it’s DCL then we should get that test of 2500 first and the ICL in October.

    The close remains important. Watching for a reversal today. It should tell us when the next ICL will occur.

    1. JJHarmen

      No disrespect Gary, but that is the umpteenth time you have called for a turn in crude. Maybe this time, it really will.

  11. JJHarmen

    I can’t believe that they are pushing GDX down again. Another kick in the teeth. It’s not easy to resist the urge to sell while I am still up.
    Don, you seemed pretty damm sure gold was headed up, still thinking that? Gary and Christian don’t seem to share that conviction.

    1. Spanky

      Big day yesterday. GDX is down less than 1%. The 20 dma has crossed above all of the other key MAs. No need to hit the panic button yet.

      1. Gary Post author

        The intermediate cycle is advancing. A DCL becomes a buying opportunity. So you are correct there is no need to panic. Use any correction as a opportunity to buy.

    2. Don

      JJ: I said I didn’t know when gold would push above $1300 except that it will soon. I don’t have a crystal ball. I am long with the belief that gold and silver are in a bull market.

      1. Spanky

        Keep em coming. Not sure who else is really all that bullish here. I am cautiously optimistic, but I know the pitfalls of this sector well, having more or less been along for the ride since 2001.

  12. Americano

    Bitcoin new All time high again. $4,457.
    North Korea rumored to be mining & Russia moving 100 million into mining operations ( thank you sanctions!!)
    First corporate bond written today in Bitcoin in Japan. 200 Bitcoin value.

  13. Gary Post author

    One does have to be careful. This is often how the banks get out of their mining stocks. They create a big rally that causes retail and hedgies to buy, and they dump ahead of the correction.

    1. Spanky

      Definitely. The daily chart is far from pretty. Looking at it objectively, you could easily argue that the next DCL will end up not that far away from the July low. That being said, I am a long since mid-2015 and will take any positive action (it’s better than being down 10% in a day!).

  14. Spanky

    My goodness the commodity complex just cannot catch a break. I will be surprised if the July bottom holds. Yes it could be setting up a double bottom reversal, but would you bank on it? If the July low gets taken out, The January 2016 low will be within spitting distance.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GCC&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p11486764258&a=539999771&listNum=1

    Relative to the stock market, commodities are at AT LEAST a 40 year low (my chart only goes back that far)!

    Even more amazing is that the $crb in absolute terms is lower today than in 1982 by a significant margin. That is absolutely nuts. So much for the quantity theory of money and inflation at least with respect to commodities.

  15. Don

    If the SM falls hard, oil stocks will go with it even if crude goes up. GUSH was not a good play.

    1. Pedestrian

      Sounds like a flip-flop to me. Where’s that brash confidence from two days ago when you claimed because I was negative on crude oil it was back up the truck time? So off you go, tail between your legs again. Good dog!

  16. dboz

    Same page with me Don. Out of energy. Market is going down. Energy will be a buy into late Sept maybe? GUSH could get a boost if NG rises but now that also looks to be on the ropes and heading WAY down. I will not short energy any more but it does not look healthy to be long energy right now.

  17. Spanky

    Wow, the Dow may actually reach over sold on the daily chart–maybe. Actually, I think a weak close today almost guarantees a trip down to 21200 in the next month or two. We will see.

  18. Spanky

    The inflation meme from the Fed is such BS. The only inflation is in the financial markets. Commodities are cheaper now than 40 years ago and since 2011 have been absolutely hammered (and the hammering is continuing). The $CRB could go up 50% from here and we would only be back to about the average over the last 40 years.

    The real return of the stock market since 1980 has been absolutely staggering.

  19. allthatglitters

    very happy to be in JDST. Not gonna sell until it’s at least 80. Gold clearly does not have the momemtum to get past 1300. Stalled here below 1290.

    1. Spanky

      That narrow trading range since May in JDST is absolutely nuts–surreal. It is getting ready to explode, up or down.

      You are going to either end up extremely rich, or you will lose everything. ha.

  20. zkotpen

    I am looking at interesting resistance clusters around 1297-1303 for gold, and around 23.40-45 for GDX.

    I also want to point out, yearly cycle volatility in gold has been progressively contracting as follows: Contract for 1-2 months; stabilize 1-2 months; contract, stabilize. The last contraction ended around July 11, and yearly cycle volatility has been stable ever since. I don’t see gold getting too far out of line on a yearly cycle basis until it gets a little closer to its YCH. I think that’s a little further out — the yearly cycle is not overbought just yet.

    1. Nada

      I asked Gary to dig up his IP so we could send someone by the retirement home. I think gold finally busted him up and our MS is no more.

  21. RetireYoung

    Everyone is constantly looking for a break down or break out. Still in the range. Accept it. Fighting it is a losing position. When the range breaks that is when it’s time to position accordingly. Breaking trendlines does not break the range. Look how low ADX is and for how long it has been low.

    Many here complain about Zkot but he has had gold correct for a long time now. Zig zag that could be going into a double zig zag. Possible that we just saw a 1 down this 2 up then 3 down 4 up and 5 down before bottom. Or could wait for break of trendline for DCL. If consolidates here quite possible that will finally break out. That is how I am playing it. Currently in JDST. Risk is defined.

    Of course as the FOMC members speak today that could be the fuel for gold to break out.

    1. MagnuM

      In whipsawing action, my thoughts are just to close your eyes and wait for that scuffle to resolve itself either way. If you have a position, hold it until the direction becomes more clear. Not sure if that’s the right strategy or not though, hah!

    2. Spanky

      Grow a pair and take a partial position before the breakout, especially when we are so close to the apex of the consolidation. :p

      1. RetireYoung

        I’m in JDST. We are at the top of the range. The strategy has worked great for months now. Maybe this time will be different. We will see.

        1. Spanky

          Ok now IMO that is crazy to play a 3xETF so close to the apex of a GIANT triangle. You are literally playing russian roulette.

          1. RetireYoung

            Remember to make money you need an edge. Name me a trader that isn’t following the triangle/trendlines. Gary has an excellent edge with his understanding of cycles, sentiment, and other external forces.

    1. Nada

      Needless to say, someone is banking today! I sold my SPY puts at the tag of the 50ma. I was all proud of myself because it bounced hard after that. Now its really paying off without me. Its tough to short that wench though, you gotta take profits quickly shorting the SPY- Gary’s PPT will starting buying /ES futures any minute!

  22. Spanky

    There is absolutely no way trading after a break out will be easy. You almost 100% will have to suffer a significant drawdown.

    I say grow a pair, take a partial position as close to the apex as possible, which also acts as your stop. If you get the break out right, keep adding on pullbacks. You will have extremely strong hands.

    1. JJHarmen

      dboz. I am sure you said days back that you had sold TVIX and I don’t recall you posting that you had bought back in.

  23. MegaMind

    Dust has turned up…looking for a big pop in to September 1st week… I expect dow to drop starting that week propelling gold…

  24. jacob2

    Energy. largely in cash but got bored and bought more energy: HCLP, CRR, BTE. Bottom fishing always interesting. Perhaps after our fall corrections oil will come in favor.

  25. Sassybabe

    I wanted to buy some ETfs relating to gold and maybe silver. What’s the best ones to buy? I only have 30 thousand to spare so I am not a big investor.

    1. JJHarmen

      GDX, GDXJ GOEX for gold stocks, GLD for gold metal , SIL for silver stock and SLV for silver metal. Good luck.

  26. Bigdaddy

    I am itching to go more short the stock market. Don, didn’t you buy SOXS yesterday? I have some in a profitable position and would like to add more but it seems to have gone up quite a bit already today. Do you see more downside or what? I have a lot of SPXU also and some SQQQ.

    1. Don

      BD: Sorry for the delayed answer but I somehow missed this post. I think there is more downside coming for the semis although it’s going to be tough holding on to a short position. The whip sawing is getting extreme on individual sectors rather than on the whole market. I don’t know if you will get a better entry price, maybe.

      1. Bigdaddy

        That’s okay, i went ahead and bought another 300 at 27.90. That gives me 600 at an average of 27.30. it’s looking good. Maybe a crash is coming,

  27. Spanky

    The set up is there for the miners to explode out of a small inverse h&s tomorrow. I am almost always too early, so maybe gdx stays in tight range for longer than I expect. But we will see.

  28. 1970confused

    Yes we will see but I think the big move will happen when the BIG BOYS come back form vacation in early Sept. I been following Gold and Silver from the early 2000’s when John Embry was with the Royal Bank before moving on to Sprott. He was calling for 2000$ gold back then if I recall properly. Well I would have never believed it that many years later the price is still under control by the money changers with all that has happened especially since 2008/2009. I think The metals will never be left free to find true price discovery?!!

  29. Don

    Picked up 300 FCG moments ago at 19.03. I have been watching this one for a while and its a lot safer play than GUSH or ERX. This will be for the purpose of a long term hold and will pick more if lower prices come along.

    1. Don

      I should clarify that while I do believe we are in a buying range for crude , oil stocks may not follow if the SM gets ugly. They may go up but could just as easily follow the SM down so be careful.

  30. Pedestrian

    I have to say, there is almost nothing that would make me happier than to see gold break just a dollar or two above 1300 because the metals bloodbath that would follow would be a spectacular trade. Either way gold is going down like the Titanic but we are likely going to be kept in suspense until late in trading on Friday which is often the case. You bulls had best exercise caution because the yellow flag is out.

    1. Nada

      Ped when I read your comments, this is my reaction:

      http://gph.is/2aKIbPe

      I am thinking how glorious it is going to be. Shorts are going to be pilling on. They are going to drive gold all the way to 1375 to test the 2016 July highs before she is done with them. Muahahah Muahahah!

      1. Pedestrian

        Dream on. We have a stock market reversal heading higher coming right up in 3…2….1

        And that should cinch the case where gold is concerned.

          1. Pedestrian

            No, they are here.

            S&P should bounce right off support near 2420 if all goes according to the usual routine. When it heads back up tomorrow gold is going to turn down and likely break the minor channel support line I am following.

          2. Pedestrian

            The close was just fine. Pattern was not violated. I am using future charts by the way and they do differ from the indexes. Check the channel on this hourly though and you can see there is still room to go before a bounce kicks in. These are live charts incidentally so the link will look different by tomorrow. Currently printing 2426.
            http://www.finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ES&p=h1

          3. Nada

            OK, just wanted to verify the #. No doubts it could quickly reverse. There was some large SOS for GLD ETF, so scenario could play out.

  31. vin

    Someone said Nasdaq and Dow are down!!!! Why?

    And, someone said gold is up? Does it make sense?

    Any, expert out there?

    1. Nada

      @Vin Who knows. Likely the market is not liking Trump’s actions yesterday. It would be nice to get a long overdue correction. Have your bug out bag and your firearms loaded for bear!

    2. Pedestrian

      So far gold has barely budged Vin. The sharp decline in stocks has done no damage to the pattern yet and Yen hardly flickered.

  32. Don

    Thus is what I said a few days ago in response to Pedestrian calling for crude to hit $40:

    August 15, 2017 at 10:34 am
    Thanks Ped, and that is our cue to start thinking about going long crude oil. I said I would be looking at crude (not stocks) when it got down to the 46-47 dollar area. Now I am confident on that.

    Note that I said I was thinking about getting long crude but not the stocks. My attempt to do a day trade with GUSH cost me a hundred bucks. No big deal but foolish anyway.

    1. JJHarmen

      I don’t know why you keep going on about Pedestrian. As an investor, he is not even in your league so why bother yourself about the guy? Let it go.

    2. Pedestrian

      Yes, you said that alright. And GUSH is down another 4% today. You also went underwater on your FCG trade today literally as soon as you made it. Don’t you even look left and right before crossing the road or check the technicals?

      The problem as I see it is you are an impulsive and undisciplined trader with a lazy nature. That’s also called gambling. You really need to set a target before you buy and know what conditions are to be met for the trade to succeed.

      By the way, my comment regarding WTI at 40 refers to a potential low at that region based on a cyclical decline as suggested by a DAILY chart pattern. That is not a day trade. If you need help with the term “cyclical” you can Google on it. Most here know what it means but I am regularly disappointed by your lack of effort to understand even the basic terminology.

      1. Don

        Ped: Jesus you are dumb ass, I don’t give a fuck about a 14 cent loss on 300 shares on something intend to accumulate for profits months from now and I cut the loss on GUSH earlier My account is up thousands today on my short positions and I sure ain’t worried about a hundred buck loss. Idiot.

        1. Pedestrian

          Bullshit

          SPXS was up a measly few percent when you claimed you sold and that price is far below where you bought it. That makes another loss for you. What was your entry price and what was your exit? You claimed you needed 15% just to get back to even with no gain. And I know you aren’t playing options because you said that so forget trying to claim leverage on your side.

          Donkey is a liar.

  33. Spanky

    Look I don’t think this is going to happen, but it would be pretty damn ironic if the SM crashed into Jackson hole next week. Like, 1987 style.

    That might slightly redirect topics of discussion at the symposium, don’t you think? lol.

    1. Spanky

      More gold charts with rocker ships please. Can you animate them and show a moon landing or something?

  34. Spanky

    Not expecting it a breakout in the miners today, but that’s probably exactly why it might happen today.

    1. AT

      still holding a bit of that from the time I was a sub, unfortunately no choice now but to hold until a bit better price coming …

  35. Kruzoe

    Seems practically everybody here is just watching the casino action, hemming and hawing. Where is the betting? Common people, the brokers need to make money.

    1. vin

      I bet on gold today. Tomorrow I might change my mind. I am learning from the experts. And, I am learning fast.

      And, what are you betting on to-day?

      1. Kruzoe

        I gave money yesterday, 4 bets on Dust and Nugt – check my comments on yesterday’s blog. My broker said gracias amigo πŸ™‚ My next bet will be on Monday, eclipse day.

  36. JJHarmen

    The miners are not doing much but at least they are not getting slapped down like everything else.

    1. Pedestrian

      They will if gold takes a face plant like I expect. Looking forward too it. Enjoy your rise down JJ and please do let us know when you want to cry Uncle and admit you are a fool who can’t read a simple technical pattern.

  37. JJHarmen

    i think the only one here really short is Don but has been for quite a while so I doubt he has made any profits yet. There is no way I would go short now. The PPT could step in at any second.

  38. Nada

    Rain delay. Looks like no breakout of the flag 1h during today’s cash open folks. Same time same place tomorrow.

  39. Lenapowich

    I sold my GDX. I had a profit. What if Pedestrian is right and gold falls? GDX will fall like a stone just like the rest of the market.

    1. Nada

      Miners will likely follow gold vs the SM. With that said, who knows where it will land. Profit is profit, you made a solid decision, congrats. I am staying long GDXJ, but I am a gambler. Cheers

    2. Don

      That may prove to be a smart move but don’t give up on the PMs. Maybe look at the metals instead.

    3. Pedestrian

      Smart move Lena. You can always reenter the trade if it does break upwards through the primary resistance line (multi-month triangle in this case). It never hurts to take profits at an inflection point either. Especially when there are doubts which some other people on this site express frequently.

      For GDX it has already touched the upper rail of the Bollinger bands twice and is turning back down. Volume has been declining since the 10th of the month which is also a red flag. Money flows are in decline. There is doubt in the market and neither bulls nor bears have control right now. Should gold fall as expected it is going to do serious damage to miners as they are already weak and near the top of their range.

      Nothing is ever guaranteed of course and I would not presume to know what will happen tomorrow or next week with 100% percent certainty however probabilities are on your side and you have very likely sold at the peak of this recent move up that began in early July.

  40. Nada

    XBI decided to punish the early longs. Wow, wouldn’t an ICL in the market be a beautiful thing.

    1. bginvestor

      stopped out of SPY, XBI, TNA today. dropped down quite a ways from my stops too..

      price needs to fail the previous DCL before starting the ICL upwards.. Gives me a rough idea when to get back in.

      no more just buy the fuckin dips in this late of cycle. lol

      1. Nada

        @bginvestor

        We had our tell 2 days ago and it kept building. I sold out of my SPY puts on the 50ma and regret, because I didn’t have brass balls to hold puts on the SPX I assumed people just like yourself would be BTFD – apparently they did as it bounced hard off the 50.. but this time the SPX decided to punish FOMO chasers.

        This was our TELL:
        http://schrts.co/GMPmZj

  41. Don

    I sold all my miners near the close (except for the penny stocks). I am keeping my extensive holdings in silver as I do expect higher numbers down the road. Today was a very good day for my SM shorts positions and I expect a LOT more downside in the weeks ahead. The mining stocks may go up but could very well succumb to the selling even if gold rises. Better to stick to the metals for now.

    1. Pedestrian

      You caved man! All that BS and bluster the last while and now you sell which is an admission I was right all along.

      1. Nada

        holy shit, that was funny. Ok Don, I hate to hear you sold, but you know what that means? Yep, gold going to the moon tomorrow!

        1. Don

          Nada: I fully expect garbage from Ped but not from you. You seem to have forgotten that all the time everyone was waiting for the miners to take out their December lows, I was buying (all noted here on the blog). My miners position was not large , less the 20% of my total PM positions and were sold today. I am keeping a sizable position in the metals via a double leveraged Canadian ETF (HZU). When I am very bullish on the metals I use double and occasionally triple leverage and when in doubt, I sell the leveraged and revert to non leveraged funds like SLV.

          I sold not because I expect Gold and Silver to fall but because the SM is looking like it wants to correct and it could be substantial. If that happens, the miners will be vulnerable and either go down or under perform even while gold goes up. It is far more prudent to be in the metals at this point, than in the miners. if gold and silver do go up further, I will still profit.

          1. Pedestrian

            HZU is a double levered Canadian silver ETF. You have 80% of your metals portfolio in that thing? Please wake up Don. It is in a bear market and has a clear falling channel pattern plus substantial decay. Right now it is priced at the top of its falling range. I won’t advise you to sell it here because that’s not my business but you should not be trading your own account if you don’t know what you are doing.

    1. vin

      Funny you said that. Looks like that is a common trait of some excellent investors.

      Yes it is easy to spot a good value and an overpriced asset. The problem lies in reading of the sentiment of the market. Unfortunately (or is it fortunately?) the Goddess of wealth, the market, is the final authority.

  42. zkotpen

    Nada,

    “Miners will likely follow gold vs the SM. With that said, who knows where it will land.”

    I agree, no one knows where miners will land, and it’s hard to imagine at their present price levels, but probably along the lines of the 200 day SMA, or at least make a respectable approach to it. That would be in keeping with the 2017 theme of consolidation in the sector.

  43. zkotpen

    Pedestrian

    “They will if gold takes a face plant like I expect.”

    OK… now there’s at least one person ’round here who can imagine gold and miners heading down toward their 200 day SMAs… πŸ˜‰

  44. dboz

    Miners have once again not followed metals. Tells me metals are coming down and miners are coming down even more. It is what it is. If you can get past the bias and just see what is occurring it is staring you in the face. Not touching miners here.

    1. Spanky

      I hear ya on that.

      It’s also hard to imagine any sort of major breakout or breakdown pre-Jackson Hole.

  45. zkotpen

    GDX’s correlation with gold is slowly falling off on the daily cycle degree, from strong to moderate:

    August 7: 0.89
    August 15: 0.75
    August 17: 0.74

  46. Don

    Ped: When was it that I sold SXPS at a loss? I do have SPXS in my account. Help me out here as I can’t find a record of any such sale in 2017. Copy and paste will be fine.
    I hope you weren’t just making shit up as you so often do.

    1. Pedestrian

      No Don, not making anything up. SPXS is my proxy for your US stock market short trade that you have held for months now since you told us you use ETF’s and not options. It is representative of the typical best case scenario for you to profit should stock markets fall so I was being generous. I had no idea what you actually bought until just now when you mentioned you have owned SPXS since before the start of 2017 and been holding all the way down meaning your minimum loss on that trade is 25% assuming you purchased in January 1st this year. I imagine the truth is much steeper loss though if you bought earlier in 2016. I hope you realize that SPSX is a triple leveraged fund and is not intended to be held except for brief periods. Those are not buy-and-hold instruments. You are going to destroy your portfolio if you don’t stop playing with fire like you are doing.

      1. vin

        Pedestrian, Obviously you don’t seriously follow Gary. He is of the opinion that if JNUG units are held for long enough they will go $2000 per unit (at present they are around 18). And, if I understand correctly JNUG is a triple leveraged play as well.

        Based on his excellent record I plan to hold on to that valuable asset. I bought it at about 45 (i.e. about 11.20 before split).

  47. Cardio2

    Pedestrian you are the best contrarian indicator on this board. I have been reading your post for months.
    I appreciate you for always being wrong as I make money off you.
    Recall how you said the s+p would tank months back and it went up every day after your bear call? That is just one example.

    Please keep posting your calls mate.

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