Weekend Report

I just published the weekend report early. There is a complex scenario possibly in play and I wanted to go over it before the market closes so traders can take it into consideration.

I’ve been steadfast in my belief that stocks will give us a bubble over the next 6-12 months and gold will produce it’s bubble once stocks are finished. So I see everything rising together for the next year, but stocks moving the fastest to begin with. But never-the-less, everything should be bought on dips. If you can time the dips perfectly, great. But you don’t have to to make money. Just buy the dips.

For today only I’ll discount $100 off the yearly rate ($100 refund once the initial payment is made) for anyone that wants to get on board for what I think will be quite a ride over the next couple of years.

Like our new Facebook page to stay current on all things Smart Money Tracker

134 thoughts on “Weekend Report

  1. Spanky

    If GDX closes red today, we will have a very large outside reversal candle on the daily chart, likely marking a significant top. However, if today’s high is taken out in the next two trading sessions it will have been nothing more than a bear trap–odds of this happening are extremely low.

    Looking at the chart from the July 10 lows, it’s not looking good for any further upside IMO. In fact, I think we could end up coming very close to the July 10 low at the next DCL.

    Today is just flat ugly.

  2. Steffmeister

    American indices searching for a wave 4 bottom, I think this Solar Eclipse combined with a New Moon on Moonday has the potential to be something big.

    Looking at Lunar cycles Gold has a tendency to top at New Moon, so probably a top today or on Monday.

    The Solar Eclipse has a delayd detonation. It’s igniting the fuse so to speak, then after X days we will get an upmove possibly an explosive one.

    Wave 4 and a final wave 5 to come, note the length of wave 3:

    https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-7mepeEy0wTw/WZX4YyigT4I/AAAAAAAAOpk/A-o9-6bcbaUz1vMcOtZdX7KAnBaZ9rMtwCLcBGAs/s1600/S500-20170817.png

  3. Spanky

    $XJY putting in a huge outside reversal candle on the weekly chart. Ugly stuff.

    Today absolutely wrecked the weekly and daily chart. I imagine they are going to send yen and gold down next week and send the US stock market higher.

    GDX is in trouble for the time being. What a day. So typical of this sector. I have been skeptical of the rally off the July 10 low since its inception, and it is not looking good as of today. At a minimum today probably marked a DC top. The last gold cycle lasted something like 40 days, so we could have up to three more weeks of downside action.

    Blah.

  4. Spanky

    After today’s candle, the US stock market is definitely going to have upward momentum for 2-3 weeks at a minimum. I still think 21200 is going to get hit in time though.

  5. Dday

    I like the way you described a typical gold bug, How many “to the moon” comments(from one particular poster) have we heard this week….. Made me chuckle as gold approached $1300….

        1. Nada

          To be honest.. Not sure if you are on Tradingview? They have chat channels for gold, bitcoin etc. I use them to get a read on sentiment. Typically its rocket ship after rocket ship, so thats why I started with the moon talk – because they crack me up with their funny charts.

          BTW, don’t even try to enter bitcoin chat. Your processor will instantly be taxed at 100% and the screen will be flashing with all the message streaming across the screen. All the mods have to hang out in that channel, because those kids are crazy!

  6. Pedestrian

    MegaMind
    August 18, 2017 at 9:44 am

    Also Armstrong just posted saying that market is going to drop in to early 2018…and it is going to be a SCARY one…so I am thinking at least a 15-30% drop in SPX
    —————————————————-

    MegaMind, I can’t locate the article you refer too. Can you link the Armstrong commentary?

    1. Gary Post author

      LOL I’ve found Armstrong is just like Avi. Always has multiple scenarios or he’s so vague that you can’t really tell what he’s saying. The arrays are always setup with multiple conflicting triggers so they can be interpreted both ways.

      Remember this was the guy that was still hanging onto his sub $1000 call in gold until just recently. I think he’s made the same mistake with the dollar.

      1. Gary Post author

        Yes he does. He’s convinced a lot of traders that he has an AI that can predict the market so when he makes calls they can sometimes self fulfill.

        I watch him for that reason as well.

        1. Lenapowich

          Everyone here in the office reads Martin Armstrong. While I think his personal views on politics and the economy are quite insightful, his computer predictions have not been very impressive.

  7. Spanky

    Well, near term, no breakout today in the miners and to me it doesn’t look to rosy in the near term. I could be be wrong, and of course I am staying long. (Famous last words…)

    The uptrend from the July low is not very pretty in GDX, but it could just be the banksters painting it that way to keep people off the train. Who knows, but it would be a first.

      1. Spanky

        Man, this is nervewracking action, but I guess is was to be expected at such a major point of confluence for PMs and miners.

        Something epic is in the cards, of that I have zero doubt. I just hope its not epically bad.

    1. Nada

      You want to short volatility over the weekend or just a scalp? Remember, US forces begin military exercise with SK next week. Don’t think we have heard the last of Kim’s long dong missiles.

  8. Nada

    I just want to put this out there. I don’t think the SPX bottoms today. They have already sold over +560 million on strength. Hold your shorts if you still got them, next week is going to be interesting.

    1. Spanky

      Going by the chart, I agree. But there could be quite a lot of sideways to upward action before the final low is reached. Who the hell knows. Exciting times.

      1. Christian

        Can’t be bothered with the whole online bingo! RIP Mustang Sally, Lol!

        $26 when it broke out of that consolidation — I was a little late to the party. Someone with bigger balls than I would’ve picked up some shares around $25.50 during the reversal.

        1. Christian

          Yep — I’m quietly confident on this one and bought some more yesterday. I think Energy will catch up to OIL next week.. if not, then I’ll just break even 🙂

          1. Pedestrian

            This is one time I might agree with you. ERX is pretty damn close to support and looks to have completed its YCL. Brutal decline on that one though. Ouch. I might just look at it a little closer next week. Oil isn’t my cup of tea but that trade has a bounce coming at least short term.

          2. bginvestor

            I was playing the CL futures this morning.. I just completed a scalp trade, and 10 minutes after, it shot up to the moon! darn

            Based on the CL engulfing candle , and signaled right translated CL cycle, I feel pretty comfortable getting into energy..

            I’m expecting a trend reversal here by next week. I’m in.

    1. Spanky

      I would absolutely take it if it only means a 50 cent drop from here into a DCL into September. I have a hard time believing it could be that mild, but whatever.

          1. Christian

            Gotcha — The chart is for illustration purposes. The drop in Miners AND Gold need to break that mid term trendline in order for it to qualify as a DCL. It wasn’t meant to be a price projection.

            I agree that Gold’s next move down into a DCL could very well sting the Bulls :/

    1. roadrunner

      For getting back in:
      Wait until Gary or other traders tell you the DCL (daily cycle low) for gold/miners has occurred or tKe a small position now and wait for either a break out or a DCL to add rest of position.

      If you can’t handle drawdowns then wait for DCL

  9. Bigdaddy

    Where is Don today? Hey buddy, do you think the stock market sell off is over? I took no profit on my shorts and I am getting nervous. Good call on the miners and crude, btw. Wish i had unloaded my miner stuff too.

      1. Bigdaddy

        Piss off PED. You are the guy we need a break from. I keep track in a notebook so i know who said what and when for future reference. Don’s track record beats yours by a country mile. You know, even my dog can’t stand you because i get agitated when you post. Dog’s have that six sense.

    1. Christian

      Isn’t it interesting how as soon as PEDO starting showing up every freakin day with his baloney sandwich, Mustang Sally just suddenly vanished into non-existence.

      My theory: PEDO couldn’t keep up with both charlatans and had to pick one. Unfortunately, he picked the one we DISLIKE the most Lol 🙂

      1. Pedestrian

        You trying to start a fight again? Seems like Christine is the worst offender around here making pointless daily squabbles. Last month you were calling other bloggers here parasites. What is it that makes your comments so special that your sh*t don’t smell? 🙂

        1. Pedestrian

          I’m not Mustang Sally. Not even related. I think that’s Chrissy’s narrative. I mean, Jesus, the writing styles are so different we are probably not even from the same culture. The guy seems to get his kicks on the blog though. What can you do? He’s Gary’s buddy so he gets a pass.

      2. Bigdaddy

        PED and MS are not the same person. PED is uncivil, pretends to know everything and attacks other posters. No resemblance at all to Mustang Sally who is obviously a lot smarter. PED could not be civil long enough to be a nice person anyway. Impossible. My theory anyway.

    1. Gary Post author

      LOL that’s never going to happen. From here to the bubble tops I’m only taking serious traders along for the ride. The day traders and panicky retail traders aren’t going to make it. It’s going to be volatile from here on out. Only the strongest will make it to the top.

  10. Bigdaddy

    Ok, so gold falls a little bit on the day, GLD down only 0.15 %, GDX is down only.43 % . No big deal. But, my HGU is down 3.18 %. WTF!!!! I am getting screwed big time. SOBs.

    1. Spanky

      It clearly was not the size of the loss that mattered, it was the size of the reversal from today’s top. I would be very shocked if there isn’t some follow through to the downside after today’s ugly reversal.

    1. Pedestrian

      I have to tell you Boss, there is one very bothersome worry in the back of my mind. And that is the charts are just too obvious. If we can ALL see the set-ups and they look REALLY simple then we must all be headed for a trip over the cliff together like good little sheep. The markets don’t work like that. If they were easy we would all be billionaires. But since the majority must always be wrong I worry that if we are all looking for gold to decline and stocks to rise that something else is about to happen. That is probably the main reason I have still not entered a short trade and am waiting for next week. There may still be a surprise in store.

      1. Gary Post author

        I’m also not sure the whipsaws are done. The banksters love to play with this sector.

        I rarely trust any chart patterns in the metals as they can be easily painted.

        I think one should at least have a small starter position as we clearly have an ICL, but wait to add the bulk until we get the next recognizable DCL.

        1. Pedestrian

          Thanks for saying that Gary. The days over now but the whole session really bothered me especially as I was reading more and more gold-bearish commentary on other sites. Just like all of a sudden a switch went off and the mood turned sour as the bulls vanished. Maybe nothing. We will see Monday.

        2. Nada

          I bought a small position back toda in options was due to the confirmed ICL. Bull markets surprise to the upside. My calls are November and if we head down Monday – no worries. I will open a hedge in GLD puts and wait for the DCL. Once confirmed, go heavy. With 5 contracts, I keep a long position in the market and do not have to worry about a large loss. When the DCL hits, averaging down 5 contracts even if they have lost 50% of their value will be nothing when I add +50.

          I short gold frequently. I will say I sleep like shit when I do. In today’s geopolitical environment, I sleep like a baby being long gold.

          1. JJHarmen

            There have been no really big upside moves for gold (percentage) , in a long time. Maybe because of CB intervention?

      2. JJHarmen

        Ped, I think your nemesis (Don) has been saying much the same thing for weeks. Long gold-short market. Interesting how you are claiming the change in thinking as your own.

        1. Pedestrian

          Um no JaJa, Don has been holding short stock market trades for all of 2017 or longer despite this being the second longest equity bull market in history and meanwhile he has heavily overloaded his account on long only precious metals positions during what is still a bear market in gold and silver.

          He is on the wrong side of the market with both trades and keeps losing money (which allows everyone else to make some) yet keeps doubling down on the same trades in spite of losses which he thinks will be recovered in a big stock market crash.

          What I am talking about is timing my short-gold entries since they look ready at resistance. All I said above was express a little doubt because the set-up just looks too obvious all of a sudden. And if its too obvious then everyone else is also trying to trade the same damned thing.

          Which can only mean one thing.

          Something else is going to happen.

      3. dboz

        Oh, I could be wrong for sure. That is why I just took a small position. I was up 6.4% today on it BTW. I think the metals market thinks we are taking off to the moon though? Not ready to roll over and crash? See a pullback in the miners, one more upthrust to blast off through the 1300 range then the BIG pullback into Nov/Dec.. See this chart I have posted several times. My big road map.

        https://www.tradingview.com/x/prj3H5Qv/

        1. Pedestrian

          Great chart Boss. First time I have seen that one. I don’t use XAU as my proxy but I might just be a convert after looking at your link. Usually I focus on the HUI. Is that your own technical work btw? Well done. What you have there is a 34 year long completed megaphone pattern that ends with a final low in 2016. The pattern starts to repeat from there and the analog to today might be the portion of the chart from 1993 although its hard to read because of the line overlays.. Personally, I can’t trade off a chart that long but agree its good to have a road map to keep you focused. What’s most interesting to me is the cycle distance from peak to peak and valley to valley and it looks like we have a long way to go yet before the next top.

          Thanks man!

      1. victor

        I entered long yesterday oil. But, I don’t like how some energy companies responded to that jump in oil today. I think it depends on stock market. I’m going to take profit soon and expect move much lower end of September/October together with stocks…

        1. jacob2

          Own individual stocks. ALl with double or triple bottoms so fail to see much downside even with the a significant fall sm correction. Never been so long energy stocks. Either be a lot richer next spring or not but willing to live with the choice. The risk reward just too compelling.

  11. zkotpen

    RetireYoung

    “Everyone still ignoring the pattern. Zig zag likely into a double zig zag. Ranged.”

    I concur. Actually, you remember the 2 points about perception:

    1. You can’t recognize what you haven’t learned how to perceive. That was probably my biggest mistake when I first began trading, it will be 5 years on Sunday. I knew I possessed the pattern recognition intelligence — just didn’t know the patterns and therefore could not recognize them.

    2. Beliefs.

  12. zkotpen

    As for the pattern itself, it looks like we are well into the 2nd zig zag of the double. Trying to figure out if wave B of Y has already happened, which may go with Nada’s forecast — in which:

    –Wave C of Y ends up as either an ending diagonal which may actually be nearing completion sooner than I had thought; or an impulse, a real killer that gets all the bugs on board all the way up to the YCH, whose resistance is around 1333.

    –The other scenario is, wave B of Y has just begun — that’s the more time consuming scenario.

  13. zkotpen

    Gary,

    “So I see everything rising together for the next year”

    Are you aware of the implications of what you’re saying w.r.t. the gold market?

    You are saying that after 8 months of yearly cycle rally, gold will continue to rally for another year… so you are saying the YCH will come in month 20, or thereabouts?

  14. zkotpen

    Goild,

    Yes, I’m looking forward to your reply.

    I need to choose one market for the exercise, and it will either be gold (XAUUSD or USDJPY), which has regular patterns on the one hand; or the big wave Indian Ocean of USDZAR.

    I have just made the final tweak on my edge (at least for now), in which I added yet another cycle degree to my charting. I’m looking at the 24-hour markets using 1-minute charts for that smallest of cycles. And there’s a heck of a lot more clarity down at that degree than on the 3-minute chart — it really surprised me! Who knows why it took me so long to pay attention to that. Oh well, slow but thorough am I.

    Speaking of the Indian Ocean, I’ve been wondering why the waves are so much bigger there than in much or most of the Atlantic. Of course, the Southern Hemisphere has a lot more water, and the Northern Hemisphere has a lot more land. The Atlantic Ocean may be bigger, but it’s not as expansive… except perhaps in the South Atlantic, with which I am also familiar…

  15. zkotpen

    Gary,

    Thanks for the chart.

    Still, when and how do the YCL happen in gold — December, 2018?

    Wow — that copper pattern is much different than the gold pattern. Of course, I have long considered gold as currency and NOT raw material.

    I’m much less familiar with the copper chart — seems I looked at it a few months ago. That looks like 5 waves up nearing completion (NOT imminent, but closer to the end of the pattern than to the beginning or middle of it).

    The copper chart looks classic, actually, like a text book writing itself.

    1. Gary Post author

      The YCL for gold just occurred in July.

      You are thinking too short term.

      I’m looking at the big multi year picture. Dips are buying opportunities in just about everything.

      There has to be consequences to years of QE from every central bank in the world, and that consequence was never going to be deflation.

  16. zkotpen

    Gary,

    “You are thinking too short term.”

    I’m thinking like a person with a strong background in Calculus and natural sciences — how I conceive of notions like infinitely large and infinitessimally small. I just need to configure the tools to capture this range as well as I can.

    Just as I notched down closer to infinitessimally small time frames, I may even subscribe to StockCharts, just to get a look at historical data, to add Multidecade to my cycle analysis. And eventually, I’d love to look at the Century cycle for gold, and perhaps even some sort of global stock index — Century cycle, over a period of 47 centuries. Not sure how useful that would be, but I want to look at it. Multidecade is very useful — I just don’t have enough data to get a meaningful read with tradingview.

    On the science and engineering side, I am very familiar and comfortable with the entire electromagnetic spectrum — NOT just the visible light with a little UV and IR thrown in (analogous to “short time frame” in markets). And I’ve actually worked with several different areas of that spectrum — I was Communications Officer on my submarine, you know 🙂 That was during the Cold War — so NOT just the ultra high frequency super short wavelengths stuff…

    … regardless of wave application in question, regardless of scale the sine and cosine waves work the same…

  17. Goild

    Good evening,

    I ended overtrading to loose the +$1K made at the open, to loose -$2K to recover, to end at -$1200 in my cash account, but to make +$2100 in my swing account. I left 3K JNUG shares on the table.
    Dboz appears to be short and wants JNUG to go down. As I am in, I see positive. Gold has broken the upper trend line, which is a fact, and so is headed to heaven.
    The manipulators are holding the miners down, there is a strong divergence, and bears might feel deep pain if JNUG gaps up some 10%-20% rocketing to heaven.
    Oh, we should not forget that on Monday we have the eclipse, hopefully we will have a phenomenal gap up.

  18. Goild

    Zkot,

    No I am not familiar with Forex and USD:ZAR.
    However, from the point of view of trading, the issue that counts is how much risk one is willing to take.
    The answer for one to survive the market should be about 1%-3% of the account.
    One should trade a security one is familiar with.

  19. Goild

    Zkot,

    Congratulations on your 5 years of trading this coming Sunday!
    I take it that you have become a very “mechanical and rigorous” trader who applies by the book rules.
    Hopefully you are having consistent profit.

    Thank you for posting your trading procedure/algorithm. I will reflect on it.

  20. Goild

    What is relevant to make money out of the market?

    Is it to be a day trader?
    Is it to be a swing trader?
    Is it to be a long term trader?

    NO

    What really counts is the trading psychology.
    Everything else is way, way secondary.

    1. Pedestrian

      Agree Goild. We had some school teacher named Kenny come on the site yesterday and start lecturing us all about what a so-called professional does and why none of us fit the bill because no *real trader* would ever come to a place like this. Basically said all day traders were losers and anyone who claimed they made money was a liar. Said he was a 25 year veteran himself who knew a few pros. Sounded like a twit to me. I know a few pros too and they have HUGE egos and love nothing better than coming to blogs just like this and showing off their skills. What’s with people and the little square boxes they want too squash everyone into all the time. The whole exercise is about keeping your mind refreshed for the next day and if talking on a blog helps then so it shall be.

  21. Goild

    Ped,

    Yes, I read his post.
    There is no way he knows all what people are capable of.
    There are very talented people.
    And then there are ants who make money consistently.
    I hope you are doing very well. Good night!

    1. Pedestrian

      All good Goild. Still in the warming pit and getting ready for September. Only three trades so far in the pre-season but don’t think of me as too lazy. It’s just taking longer to get geared up for fall because the damned chart is taking so long to get to where I want it to go!

  22. Pedestrian

    So anyway, some 6 or 8 months back I had been writing a lot about the silver chart and something that was REALLY bothering me about it which was that there was an unfilled gap on the monthly chart that was telling us we had to see another low.

    When I drew the lower channel line in other words, there was an obvious gap between the 2017 price lows and where the lower channel said price should be going. Today I revisited that chart and wouldn’t you know it but the gap is now filled!

    Remember that spike low in July that people were talking about? Some questioned if it would even show up on the charts since not all trading software had registered the sudden spike down near 15 dollars. But on FINVIZ futures it does indeed show up and it very nearly meets the conditions for a support to close that uncomfortable gap.

    Have a look for yourselves. What I am referring to is the July candle.

    Does anyone else agree that silver has possibly seen its final low?
    Does this turn the silver chart MUCH more bullish than I was willing to admit even recently?

    No harm in changing opinions since its all about staying on the right side of the trade. A second opinion is welcome here. Have a look at the link and draw in t bottom channel line yourself to see if the fit is acceptable.
    It should run across the lows of 2008 and 2015 to my way of thinking.
    http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=SI&p=m1

  23. Bluebellkid

    American household debt hit an all-time high in the second quarter of 2017, with increases in every major category, from credit cards, to student loans, to mortgages.
    According to the latest quarterly household debt and credit report by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, aggregate household debt increased for the 12th consecutive quarter. It now sits at $12.84 trillion, a level $164 billion higher than the previous peak of $12.68 trillion set in the third quarter of 2008. The level of household indebtedness in the US now stands at 69% of US GDP.
    No wonder US Global Investors CEO Frank Holmes calls debt “the mother of all bubbles.”
    Credit card debt eclipsed a record set during the summer of 2008. Americans carry $1,021.7 billion of revolving debt. Overall, credit card balances went up $4.1 billion in the month of July alone.
    Both student loans and auto loans also hit record highs in Q2. Student debt increased to $1.45 trillion. Auto loan debt pushed up to $1.131 trillion.

  24. Goild

    It seems that the NK was not really the reason for gold to reverse. It was already in the cards.
    Gold has been rising, that is what price tells, it is in an uptrend, it is the fact.
    The dollar is low and gold is heading higher which is consistent.
    Inflation is kept in check as the FED is terrorized about higher interest rates as we do not have money to pay much more interest to Japan and China.

    While the SM welcome Trump, at this point his credibility is quickly running away,
    The SM should return to election day levels, or much lower.
    Hardly one would expect a SM super bubble: a bubble on top of a big bubble.

    Why the miners have been held down?
    Blame it on the manipulators.
    Though now the risk of shorting the miners is much higher. They may take off at any moment.
    If the SM dives into a crash there is the high risk that the 3X funds would be super punished.

  25. dboz

    IMO, silver above $22 opens the door. Won’t be much resistance over that price. People stuck from 2011 will unlikely be selling if they have held this long. Too stubborn and the worst behind us. Less overhead means less resistance to clear out of the way. Getting to $22 though is tough. 19-22 may be tough sledding. After that, smooth sailing IMO.

Leave a Reply