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#Zkopten
Yes i was tired working 14h per day during commissioning. ..
However here is my count from late July, we got a complete picture perfect 4 in a a-b-c correction. The final 5th is on it’s way now. We will be out of the woodwork in the beginning of August imho
http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/499392#comment-499392
Gaahh I mean september typing this on a mobile …
#Stefan
I would give serious consideration to the century-long chart for gold since the beginning of the Fed (1913). Here’s most of it:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-08/here-s-a-few-facts-and-charts-that-gold-bugs-might-not-like
That chart would make the 1970s supercycle wave 3, and the 2000s supercycle wave 5, of grand super cycle wave 1. The move from $20 to $35 was supercycle 1. That would make the 2010’s grand supercycle wave 2, NOT cycle wave 4, as gold bugs wish to believe.
In the past 100 years, the price of gold has significantly outpaced inflation, in USD terms, by more than two to one (PoG up 54x, CPI up 24x in that period, based on $1116 gold, and June, 2015, CPI).
I recommend keeping your mind open to the possibility that gold will have five waves down, not ABC three waves. I believe the ABC scenario was invalidated by the move below the November, 2014, low.
Either way, the next move down should be five waves, and I like the target of 1033.
The subsequent move up will either take on a wave 4 character one degree higher than the current wave 4 (my preferred count), or an impulse (as implied by your chart).
Cheers!
I am not a fan of Zerohedge and its end of the world articles but I think this chart is interesting showing the divergence between the oil price and energy stocks. It would be good if, in the coming days, we could see the energy stocks drop more in line with the price of crude as I think that they would represent a good longterm buying opportunity.
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/08/20150813_EOD16.jpg
Gary, you said you were expecting a decline in the stock mrkt wedsney or thursday at late, to open a crash fase for the market for the next 2/3 weeks. right?? today is friday, no decline yet happened. What do you think about??? Are you changing your view now, or not?
Thanks.
Felix.
Felix, have a listen to Gary’s thoughts on the conventional markets as of yesterday here:
http://www.kereport.com/2015/08/13/markets-simply-returning-normal-chinese-debacle/
GDX is gonna shake everyone out again 🙂
Are we ultimately going to re-test $13 a share on GDX again?
me think not. A strong support at 14. Heading to 18
Is this scenario back on the table: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CKpPZUwUwAAd4Gc.jpg:large
😉
Things are changing quickly. The 2015 EPS (SPX) will have negative growth, the first time in this entire bull market.
That just means QE4 will occur…so that’s bullish! 🙂
Each QE has less effectiveness as the previous one.
Politically, QE4 is DOA.
They are better off mailing $2000 checks to every tax payer.
That WILL kick start inflation.
Is the bottom in Gary?
Yes I’m pretty sure gold has completed an intermediate cycle bottom. A slim chance that it could be a final bear market bottom, but for that scenario we need the stock market to move down into the 7 YCL and trigger QE4. As of right now it looks like the Fed has successfully delayed the move down again. It’s tough to fight an opponenet with a printing press.
Simple question: how wrong could it be to avoid the entire gold sector for some time to come? Answer: not wrong. Reason: the deflationary pulse is moving across the world, and the belief that it has already run it’s course is just wishful thinking. Evidence: it is rarely if ever the case that a massive devaluation like China’s is not a massive cry for help. US stocks have probably only just given the first hints of trouble.
Avoid all assets and stay in dollars. Even if you hate US Dollars, stay in them for now. Ask yourself: when was the last time the dollar collapsed against gold? It’s been a while. And the last time, in 2011, it only lasted a short while. You lost nothing by staying in dollars.
JW
Schiff said the dollar index would go to 40 and it went to almost 100 instead.
My point is nobody really knows what the dollar will do….and those like Schiff that claimed to know were proven incredibly wrong.