86 thoughts on “CHART OF THE DAY”

  3. zkotpen

    AlexP

    Cheers Mate!

    Yeah, cash is king THIS WEEK — last week there were three particularly good instances where NUGT & DUST were the best place to be.

    1. AlexP

      Good morning, Z! 🙂 the only thing I’m afraid of is no-man’s-land number out of jobs report, such as 190k, or 200k, or the like

    1. AlexP

      I’m glad such news have hit mass media; it can only mean that bearishness is pervasive in current mass psychology
      Thank you for this bullish information!

    2. Bill

      Marketwatch has always been Anti Gold, fact is they are nothing but sheep reporters over there…reporter term used loosely…more like Shills for the cog…

  7. chris

    Yes jorgy, its usually not wise to fight COT. It’s bearishness is so strong. The odds of commercials being correct is very high. So why fight such strong headwinds?

    But Gary could be right, and he qualify himself. Even if it’s not a bull market, it could still be a good bear market rally . Also, he has been telling people to buy at lower prices. So one could have scaled out to reduce risk.

    1. mike trike

      COT Report only works well in bear market. If market has switched to bull then the dip won’t be as severe and the Commercials will have to cover shorts into rising price. EVERYONE talks about the COT reports now, whereas a few years ago it was only covered by a few analysts. One day soon the COT report won’t work as as indicator of market direction and a lot of people will get burned.

    2. MuffinTop

      Chris — I think you’re forgetting one very important point here.. A COT report is more often than not a ‘Contrarian’ indicator and when it hits extremes, it often signifies a bottom or a top in whatever you are eyeing for a trade. In Gold case, it would suggest a bottom is in or very near ?

      1. mike trike

        MuffinTop
        COT told us last Friday to be bearish on silver and gold. Both have collapsed since then. Nothing contrarian about that. If Commercials are massively short then you should be too. In rare events, like 2010, the commercials are wrong and have to cover into high demand and the price rises rapidly. It is rare that Commercials are wrong.

        1. MuffinTop

          ‘If Commercials are massively short then you should be too.”
          I strongly disagree, haha!

          And by the way, Gold is getting slammed not because Commercial Traders are short but because the Bullion Banks are intentionally suppressing price and have been for quite a while now. Ask Gary.. he’ll tell you all about it 😉

  9. zkotpen

    AlexP:

    You can see the links I posted above how I think this move is progressing. Even though the triangle idea is invalid, GDX is still moving within the following corrective channel on the 30 min chart:

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/ayZrd88H/

    If it breaks out of that channel, I’ll be more confident in a move up. On the other hand, if it’s contained in the channel, it’s only corrective.

    With a countertrend rally, we’re not getting those long, protracted moves for trading intermediate cycles.

    I know you don’t trade the gold & miners. GDX experiences much more dynamic movements in price than GLD, though it exhibits patterns that are more difficult to recognize. I looked at both on a chart overlay — GDX is more exciting. Then overlay NUGT and DUST on GDX — makes it look tame by contrast. The possibilities…

    Check out “The Gold Rush”, by Charles Chaplin. That classic perfectly captures the spirit of precious metals mining — whether in the Yukon or on the internet… If you can connect with the vibe of that film, you can trade the miners; if not, best to keep away 🙂

    1. AlexP

      Hi, Z! I am sorry man but I do not know anything about GDX 🙁 I’ve never traded it and ever since I lost BIG money trading junior mining and oil&gas stocks I have got apprehensiveness about resource stocks.
      Therefore, I cannot comment in any direction on this topic. Sorry again!

      On the other hand, neighboring the GDX topic, I am very glad to see 2 things:
      – USX is adamant to meet its cyclical responsibility of producing a monthly swing high above 98.44 soon,
      – gold has withheld magnificently in face of the USX-bull thrust today.

  10. ted

    The two most boring people in the world these days are Gold Bulls and Stock Market Shorts.

    Just be long stocks, play golf, and you’ll do better than 80% of the people out here.

  11. AlexP

    On Monday I was speaking about shakeout maneuvers to be started on the second part of Wednesday through all Thursday….

    ARE WE TO SEE SWING HIGH IN STOCKS TODAY ? by each hour more and more in the books

    The very beauty of this 90%-likely swing high today in stocks is that it will not come in empty-handed, as a mere daily cycle decline signal, but that it will also bring in decline confirmation because of the steepness of the daily cycle trendline which will also get broken.

    On the other hand, I revise my DCL from 2010-2040 range to around 2045-2055 to be printed tomorrow or most likely at the open of Friday session –> tomorrow most likely a big red down-thrust but….that will be pretty much all of what we are to see in this daily cycle decline —> just some fib-24% retracement.

      1. ted

        You’re right Alex. It probably going to be a bad several months for the bears. And to levels they can’t comprehend right now.

        1. mike trike

          BROAD US STOCKMARKET AT 15-YEAR OVERBOUGHT EXTREME…

          According to Clive Maund. Yup, looks like a good time to be long stocks……

  13. David

    The idea that GOLD has bottomed because OIL has bottomed is wrong. Commodities don’t move in tandem. There’s a bigger chance that the dollar is on the verge of breaking out of a multi month bull flag which will pressure all commodities.

  14. Bill

    Who cares what Gold does, remember the elites own it as well. And lord knows they too like a bargain. Me Ill buy it all the way down to zero, its insurance and has to be looked upon as such. The key here is hoping I never have to use my Gold, so the price means very little to me.

  15. JayT

    Hi Gary- a week or two ago, I think when silver made a newer high, you said the PM bear market was definitely over. Now you seem to be equivocating…is it not over or has your opinion changed? Thanks.

    1. Gary Post author

      I’m still of the opinion that gold probably completed a final bear market bottom back in July.

  18. Trond

    Gold retested the busted trendline from below, at 1122,5 was rejected and made a lower short term low, so from an objective technical perspective, be careful here..

  20. AlexP

    SWING HIGH IN STOCKS HAS BEEN PUT! daily cycle decline is here.
    I will start buying stocks via several pilots (small exposures) tomorrow in late session, as shakeouts will be all over the place, institutions ripping retailers like dolphin packs on sardine schools.

    Most of the buying (both stocks and UGLD) will be on Friday at the opening.

    PS: Stocks are drawing both a large cup with handle and a potential reverse H&S of which right shoulder has just started being drawn 🙂

    GOOD LUCK, PEOPLE! BE BRAVE TO BUY ON FRIDAY (if jobs report produces <200k as it is most likely) even if the daily cycle decline will have proven shallow.
    ON THE PRIOR MONDAY I WAS TELLING THAT WEDNESDAY OCT28 WOULD BE THE LAST OOPPORTUNITY TO DUMP GOLD. NOW FRIDAY IS THE LAST BIG OPPORTUNITY TO GET ON BOARD BOTH OF GOLD AND STOCKS! 🙂

    2. Tushar

      Thank you Alex for you sharing your thoughts and insights, I appreciate it. Thanks as well to Gary for providing the conversational forum. I agree and concur the same for Gold specially coupled with November seasonal strength. However, I am of the opinion that this bounce is temporary and may be for about two weeks or less and only upto 1158. Thanks again!

  21. David

    Every trade should have a plan.
    To make a call on a 6 year bear market and now anyone that listened to Gary is deeply underwater.
    To go against the COT report was simply reckless. Now Gary’s will need a life saving jobs report to salvage this 90+ point drop (8%)..

    1. JohnWilkinson

      If you go back in the archives, you will see Gary making multiple huge, huge calls for the end of the bear market in gold. Go back to late 2013. It’s the same storyline.

      But I want to be constructive: Gary needs to turn his back on gold. I’ve been saying this for years on his blog, and when I was subscriber.

      Just. Forget. About. Gold. And then turn attention to the universe of other assets, sectors.

      Seriously folks, this constant obsession with gold is like waiting around–for years, for a black swan event.

      2. Bill

        You mean like the obsession with Stocks and Bonds? or perhaps CD’s or Dividends and so on and so on…..that obsession?

        1. JohnWilkinson

          Nope. The obsession with gold has occurred over a number of years, to the detriment of everyone’s time and capital. Your analogy to stocks is not apt, and not factual.

          Now seriously, let’s not have a dispute about risk. All assets have risk.

          Imagine a newsletter focused on the Chemical sector, and then imagine that the Chemicals sector had gone nowhere for years, and that many factors both fundamental were set against the Chemical sector. Now imagine this newsletter for years–years–kept reviving the hope that a recovery was imminent, and that the gains would be in the hundreds of percent. You get the idea. Need I go on? Don’t think so.

          1. Johan

            I just have to say I sooo agree with you on this John, not just this site but so many more… This obsession with gold. Just get over it, it is just an asset, one of many. And while at it, also get over manipulation, if everything is manipulated why even bother trying to predict its direction… Get over it!!

    2. Bud fox

      It’s all about marketing and keeping the subs teased with calling the bottom in gold and the $5 specials on must read weekend reports.

      1. Bill

        I see Gary is forcing your hand here Bud, see that home button on top of your browser, one click of that and it all goes away…No one owes you anything, most of all no one needs to tolerate your insults of our host. Let’s see your blog….

        1. David

          Bill,
          Bud is right. Gary made a call but he NEVER admits his mistake. There’s a massive breakout of the dollar going on and he’s continue to pound the Gold trade. The Gold complex could be heading towards a new bear market lows recommending everyone to “gamble” on the jobs report.

    3. Gary Post author

      David,
      Read the chart again. I said be patient and wait for gold to form a swing before buying.

  24. MuffinTop

    I just took a poll and here are the results:

    90% of you on this blog are nothing but a bunch of whining little babies who don’t know a thing about market psychology!

    I’m totally kidding. You guys are awesome 🙂 Keep it up…

  25. Bill

    I guess no one noticed the trial bomb from Yellen this morning? The Fed knows the economy is technically in a recession and will be forced to take Fed Funds negative sometime in early 2016. Yellen floated that trial balloon earlier today. That’s an event that should launch gold. So instead of whining about our host making $5 bucks ( which doesn’t even pay for a cup of good coffee ) maybe now is the time to load up! whoever or whatever knocked Gold this far down has most certainly over played their hand. The extreme anti- gold propaganda is the tell of all tells.

    But then again what do I know I’ve only been doing this for 20 years….

    1. JohnWilkinson

      US Dollar is strong now, and will *likely* be strong for years. Unless of course a person believes otherwise. When people believe things, well, no amount of evidence will cause them to change their views!

  30. chris

    You guys are stubborn as mules if you wanna argue with the validity of COT. When COT is very short, 89-90% of time, PM , precious metals tumble. When commercials unwind, and short very little, PM rallies. Show these correlations to a kindergarden kid and he can tell you clearly tis correlation pattern.

    Only adults like to complicate things and over think. Yes, maybe commercials are wrong sometimes, but is it worth fighting for the 10%? Why don’t you let it rally, let commercials unwind some, then you buy , albeit bit higher prices

  32. William

    Everyone on the street is calling for a breakout in DXY now…but none of them i bet is looking at its monthly chart…indeed, Friday is the day to decide if the buck can follow-through later with a monthly candle-stick breakout!

    Make or break time (again) for precious metals…be prepared for either way!!!

  33. chris

    Hmmm… William, if you look at dxy mthly, for several months, it has consistently closed above the top half of its monthly bar. This shows buyers are in control.

    PS: trade what you see, not what you think

    1. MuffinTop

      The ‘pros’ also said that when trading Commodities you’re either a contrarian or a pig waiting to get slaughtered. Right now is a good time to be a contrarian cuz the Miners are trading at a roughly 90% discount; that’s f*cking huge buddy boy! You just have to exercise a little patience cuz the cows are coming home 🙂

      1. William

        That’s the whole point…And it’s good to know that the masses have given talking about miners’ valuation long time ago!!! ?

  34. Hong Bang

    Many thanks to Gary & all of you who frequently share your thoughts & learning.

    Each day, market tought me so much with its price movements.

    Love to see your guys in real world.

    Thanks

  35. chris

    Have you ever considered, maybe you need some miners to go bankrupt for this to bottom. Or you need more to bankrupt. Can you imagine if gold resumes decline to 800-900? If dxy rally, all these are possible

    1. mike trike

      If you are talking about a gold mines operating in USA then perhaps $800 will be a problem. Most mines aren’t in America and the currencies of the countries they are in have been pummelled. Gold is in a bull market priced in most of these currencies, oil is way down and most other costs of mining have come down.
      Miners have gotten much leaner and the weak ones are pretty much wiped out.

      Tell me which company is going to go bankrupt? I don’t think any in GDX will. The smaller ones that may go bankrupt are already worthless.

  36. William

    Biggest wish now is to see another bearish report from Goldman…that would complete the story the interim.

  37. Jorgy

    Told you all to de-risk and get liquid while you still could. A Strong U.S. Dollar Changes Everything and will smash certain asset classes as we break out of this triangle consolidation and move up to the January 2002 highs of 120.21. Don’t even get me started on my long term target or the February 1995 high of 160.41. Needless to say, KING DOLLER it’s going to the MOON! ?

  38. mike trike

    Time to short was 7 days ago. Now is time to be neutral. Lots of bears coming out of the woods now. I booked some nice profits on my puts today and am waiting to buy some calls, possibly Friday.
    Gold COT wasn’t at extreme levels and I am surprised that gold tanked this much. I expected silver to tank to around $15 and possibly lower buy now is not the time to be overly bearish. We could be at the lows right now. Miners are holding their own fairly well also.

  40. chris

    Mike, to say that gold is in a bull market in many currencies and not US$, so gold is still in a bull market is like putting head in the sand. In a true bull market, gold will rally against all currencies including US$. Armstrong said so too . And commonsense says so too. Go check out 2001 to 2007 . Gold rallied agst all currencies, even US$ hence it was a true bull market.

    1. mike trike

      I am a Canadian and own zero miners with mines in USA. My Canadian mining stocks have performed extremely well the last 2 years. I could care less about the price of gold in US dollars. Look at gold priced in Brazilian Real, or Australian dollar or Rubles. Gold looks great in those currencies as well as in many others.

      I trade GDX, GLD and SLV options when I think the market is overbought or oversold because the Algos set the prices and it if very easy to make money off of them. Other than that I wouldn’t touch GDX as an investment.

      Armstrong is calling for Dow 31,000 in the year 2015. He is the most overrated Guru out there.

  41. chris

    Gold has dropped a lot this past week, so it may have bounces. But could still be bear rallies. Sometimes I wonder, to say that gold is being suppressed by bullion banks etc hence frustrates the bulls. If you know it is being suppressed, you could have joined in the party to short it. And if it is being suppressed, then how do you explain the huge rally from 2001 to 2011?

    Yes, it could be manipulated. But who cares? Stocks are also being manipulated. Key is just participate on the price movement, be it gold , miners or stock indices.

  42. David Silver

    Still long crude as of 10/21.
    Went long FB at the close today.
    Looking for undercut low soon in gold then will add ABX.

  44. chris

    Never doubt or question a good call when it is a good call, regardless of whether guru or not. Even guru could be wrong. He called for market bottom at 1 Oct 2015, close enough. And why argue over an argument that in a true bull market, an asset have to rise agst all currencies? This is so logical. Never argue with logic. If you like fake bull, go invest maybe in Zimbabwe stocks. For the Zimbabwe people, their stock market is in a bull market.

    1. mike trike

      I am a Canadian. I get paid in Canadian dollars. Gold has been going up in Canadian dollars for the last 2 years. High quality Canadian miners bottomed in 2013. I could care less about US dollar price of anything! It doesn’t apply to me. Why do you bring Zimbabwe into this? Look at the link I posted above. Look at the charts. Look at gold in Brazil Real. You must be from USA.

  45. chris

    You are only maintaining your purchasing power. Canadian dollar been dropping. You could enjoy your fake bull, but a real bull, a great one only occurs when gold rises across all currencies.

    1. mike trike

      The US dollar peaked at the beginning of the gold market bull from 2000 to 2011. Totally different scenario than today. US dollar index was over 120 in 2001 and dropped all the way to 70 in 2008. That is the difference.

  46. chris

    Bingo, dollar bottomed in 2011. Now 98, imagine it rally to 120 or breaks new high. What would happen to gold? Yes, gold could rally agst other currencies. But that’s no bull. Imagine, gold priced in Zimbabwe dollars. Wow, what a great bull market. But is it really so?

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