As is always the case at these major turning points, the usual analysts are going to get it wrong again. The dollar is finishing an intermediate cycle decline, not starting one.
Stocks are dropping down into a half cycle low of intermediate degree, not starting another leg down in a bear market.
And gold is putting in an intermediate degree top and will drop down into a yearly cycle low, it’s not starting a sustained move higher. Seriously how do these guys manage to get it wrong at every one of these turning points?
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Gary–nice overview of these three asset classes. Are you getting 100% out of metals, miners and stocks, or waiting for more upside first?
Currently on the sidelines in ll three.
Every single analyst I follow is bearish on PM’s. A couple are neutral. Nobody is saying to buy now. Everyone is waiting for a huge selloff, then they will buy.
“There has never been a Bull Rally less than 5 months …we are just past 3 Months Now”
https://goldtadise.com/?p=368441
Mike, I also saw that post and it is a good one. Have you seen the posts on GoldTent by Spock on his “Spock Rocks?”
His junior miner portfolio is popping lick popcorn and most positions have doubled or tripled by now. This guy is good. Very, very good.
https://goldtadise.com/?p=368457
Hi Surf, I read every post, including comments, on Goldtent, including spocks (and yours). Best precious metals site on the internet IMO. My own miner portfolio has more than tripled from the lows. When my miners have reached what I consider fair value I will start to sell some. Most will have to double or triple or more from here before I consider them fairly valued, at this price of gold and silver.
Mark at GoldTent is the man. I wouldn’t bet against his calls.
https://goldtadise.com/?p=368466
I agree that Mark is one of the best TA guys out there. I just wish he would post more. EagleSeagle is another good one and Fully always has some good charts.
Mike, My own take on this current Gold and Miner IC is that I have held my “Core” but been a little jumpy with a couple of my larger, more liquid positions (RIC, MUX, AEM, etc.) when they approached resistance lines I had on my trading platform near where I expected a Trading Cycle to top.
That said, I quickly re-established those positions once price broke my cycle downtrend lines and I am very glad I did as my account is also “rockin & rollin” as well.
On the contrary the metals have rallied since Dec3.
5 months next week.
Gary, Actually from the Dec 2, 2015 Low, 5 months was early April and May will be 6 months by my count. Fully’s chart is incorrect on that front. The more interesting point of his chart, however, is that in all his Bullish Boxes, there were 5-10 month periods where the IC Lows were 38% or less and and several did not break the IC uptrend line to the downside.
These would be examples of Time based Consolidation ICLs that we have seen in other assets during bull runs (e.g. SPX, USD, TLT, etc.). I am not saying definatively that we have seen one here with Gold but I am open to the possibility and I’m not going to sell until I see more evidence that a big correction is coming, especially with the USD being “managed lower by the G20.” On my charts, the surprises to the downside for most are with the USD.
Heck you might as well just hold Old Turkey. You will save lots of money in taxes.
40% of my capital is in my IRA’s and Keogh accounts where there are no taxes 🙂
In situations like this, do you think gold or gold bugs will suffer the most? Or do they go down equally? What about gold vs silver, which has gone up a lot recently as well?
I think you mean gold or miners. Miners are alot more volatile than gold and should drop more in percentage terms.
Here is one for you, Gary..lol.
https://goldtadise.com/?p=368496
We made an insane amount of money on the gold rally. I’m more than satisified with the trade. I don’t have to catch every last penny of the rally. That is for Old Turkey’s.
I just want to make sure I dont get caught in the ICL. Only a fool would chase now with price stretched 72% above the 200 DMA.
Once the ICL comes then I will be ready to buy heavily and with leverage.
I wouldn’t buy right now either if I wasn’t fully positioned. If I was waiting for a correction then I would put some money into juniors that are still undervalued and haven’t moved much.
One that hasn’t done much is T.AVK
What are your vehicles to trade on leverage, NUGT? Or do you buy individual miners on leverage? Been researching alot of these miners but the balance sheets of most of them are still crappy.
Managed to finally navigate the new log on.
Yes this rally has went on longer that I expected.
Any shorting of a rally is painful. Yes I get stretched but I was stretched just as much by NUGT on the way down. You need patients then wait for the sling shot. Nice to know I was shorting before the commercials (front running Goldmansucks) and now Gary has even been converted. If there was ever a rally to short this is it. I have Doubled the allocation to the cause, as this baby is coming down at some point IMO:
Still short gold and Miners x3 etf now 180% loaded (looking for another 20% this week).
Still short s&P, nasdaq dow x3 etf now 150% allocated but with 50% hedge at top x3 long etf (long stocks hedging the rest).
Oil has went to $45 before the summer (first target) but is due a correction before $65 before year end.
Long term stock to keep 85%. Some cash to buy back in the summer.
As someone that does not know anything about cycles (thanks gary for all your information on these) I cannot time my trades like Gary. I kind of move like a tortoise going up a hill.
One thing is for sure, ever since I have looked at Gary’s info he has been spot on with his pin pointing, tradable turning points and giving people confidence when needed.
Fact – anyone that followed Gary’s lead since Christmas on this free blog, would have made $ hand over fist. That he does that free and allows free speech is a gift.
I don’t agree with Gary that all the shorts are in pain. I comfortable, just waited to spring and made another call to double down. I will now wait to summer and have a look again. I just have a different way of doing things that’s all. but maybe I looking to change if he keeps up his calls at this rate of success 🙂
Thanks again for the info.
PS (any info regarding cycles theory or a link to a website worth reading to get some back ground would be appreciated)
Google “Walter Bressert Cycles” Lots of good info out there.
Thanks . it is just that there is too much information out there , so a direction to a quality source is appreciated.
I have some links to some of the best and will dig them up when I have time later this weekend perhaps. Gary may also have some useful links as well.
The Walter Bressert search should get you started. Just realize that cycles are evolving and what worked 20-30 years ago doesn’t apply to today’s modern markets.
Here is a link to a Bressert manual. Some of the basics start on pages 8-9. Gives a good overview.
http://www.walterbressert.com/pdf/manual.pdf
thanks for the link
One or two more up days next week and the BPGDM is going to move above 85%.
Keep this in mind if you are listening to analysts recommending that you chase right now. The time to buy will be when this drops back below 50 and preferably below 30.
Sentiment on GLD … 96% bulls
GDX … 96% bulls
GDXJ … 96 % bulls
These are the kind of sentiment levels that occur at or very near intermediate tops.
Sentiment levels on QQQ … 17% bulls
IBB … 16% bulls.
Yet most people would rather chase the metals than buy the tech sector.
Classic dumb money behavior. Buy high sell low.
I for one will be looking to buy positions in both QQQ and IBB sometime next week.
Last time I checked on here, I believe Gary was calling Avi Gilburt an idiot for looking higher. hmmmm
If I remember correctly he was calling for miners to rally something like 100% or more. They might make it 30% – 35% from where they were when he made the call. They aren’t even going to be close to 100% before correcting. In the long run yes the miners are going up many hundreds of percent.
Avi was also calling for stocks to drop below 1700. Clearly that hasn’t played out either. This is the problem I have with EW. There is always and alternate count. Why? because it doesn’t work well in real time. When I make a call I don’t hedge my bets with an alternate count. I make the call win or lose. All I hear from Avi is how he traded every move perefectly. Of course it’s always after the fact, and if you have two or three different counts then no matter what happens you can claim that you traded the market perfectly.
He claims to have called the bear market perfectly and he is quick to denigrate anyone who has tried to call a bottom and missed. Keep in mind I’ve only been calling initermediate bottoms not bear market bottoms. The only bottom that I thought was a final bear market bottom was the one last summer. Yes I missed that one. Gold made a lower low. But if you actually check his record Avi has also tried to call the bear market bottom and missed. So he’s really no better than everyone else that he ridicules.
Here is an article where he clearly missed the bottom in January.
Another where he tried to call the bottom in 2013.
Clearly no one gets every call right. That is impossible. But I do take offense when someone does an interview after the fact and claims to have traded every wiggle in the market perfectly. Come on! How gullible does he think people are?
Gary,
I have followed you for a while, and I have to be honest that you have made many “guaranteed” bottom calls over the years in the metals market. Then you complained it was “manipulation” as to why it was not a bottom. Most of us find that dishonest.
Avi called the top to the market almost to the penny in 2011, and then made one long attempt in 2012 from what I remember . . I could be wrong about that. But, when that failed, he stopped out and focused on dropping to the targets we recently bottomed at. That is a pretty damn amazing call years ago. If you don’t consider that trading the market perfectly . . well . . there are some of us out here that do. And your saying that Avi “called the bear market bottom” . . . again, that is dishonest, as he is still looking for confirmation. But, it is quite clear where he had us all buy into the market before he got confirmation . . . and if you look at any of his charts, you will see clearly that it was at the exact bottom . . no if’s ands or buts about it . . . he told everyone where he was buying and where they should buy with a big buy box on this charts. You just could not miss it. So, your being dishonest again for making that claim.
Also, I have seen many people commenting about some of your portofilios, and they say that when they blow up, you just close them and start a new one to claim how good your returns are. Again, that is quite dishonest.
And, since I also follow Avi, I have to say you are being very dishonest about his S&P calls, and I can tell you that he has done better than most I have seen over the last 3 years. And, he was never calling for a drop below 1700 . .. again, that is dishonest.
Gary, in truth, I see a lot of dishonesty coming from you. One has to wonder why? And what this fixation you have for Avi?
Well, good luck, and it is quite interesting reading what you have to say. Some of your more recent calls have been pretty good. Keep up the good work.
Oh . . and regarding him nailing the metals . . . I am not sure if you saw this, but it was posted on the Kerlin’s page by LPG, some I do respect:
On April 23, 2016 at 8:09 am,
LPG says:
Tom,
If one listens to Avi once in a while, here and there, one might come up w. comments such as the one you just made on him/silver.
If one follows him and his work a little more closely – or should I say “seriously”, one will likely change one’s tune. But that suppose more time dedication and intellectual effort.
I SUPPOSE that if you were aware of some of his calls more frequently than just by listening to him once in a while on KER, you would probably not come up with conclusions such as the one you wrote. That is, if you are intellectually honest – which I have no reason to doubt. Personally, I just feel “sorry” for people who listens to him once in a while, and draw conclusions right away (sometimes wrong ones), as they miss the big picture. As I wrote in the paragraph above, one needs “more time dedication and intellectual effort. ”
Although I am not one of his subscribers, I have exchanged with Avi a few times this week on silver – as he mentioned in his interview – and he NAILED every twist and turn. He N-A-I-L-E-D them.
When it comes to your mention of the 12 handle on silver, I suppose that a longer discussion during the KER interview would have enabled him to discuss that. In his communication with me, Avi addressed the topic, as he did with his subscribers.
FWIW, I still have orders in place (meaning I have capital allocated/earmarked in my portfolio) on long term silver calls in case silver takes a nose dive.
Again, to me, Avi is very up there when it comes to risk management of positions with identification of downside risk and upside target.
I’m not one of his buddies, neither one of his friends so I have no skin in saying that – which could come across as a compliment, and which it is not. What I express is just my unbiased view.
So if you come across anyone, anyone w. a better and MORE CONSISTENT track record at highlighting downside risks/upside targets, I’m game.
My problem with Avi is that he is clearly a salesman. He comes on after the fact and claims to have traded every move perfectly. But I never see him make a call in real time.
I noticed this from day one when he started doing interviews on the Kereport.
I didn’t say anything at the time. If he wanted to brag about making calls after the fact that was his business.
I have subs who tried his service and couldn’t make any money as there is always an alternate count. Like I said alternate counts are great if you want to claim to making perfect trades, but they don’t help anyone make money.
But then he started to attack me about manipulation and that was the point where I had had enough of him. Now everything I’ve been talking about has been vindicated. The markets have and are being manipulated just like I said they were and finally one of the big banks has admitted it and implicated many others as well.
Like I’ve been saying all along this was an artifical bear market created by the banks to depress price as far as possible and set up and allow them to enter positions at the bottom for what should be the biggest bull market maybe in history.
Gary,
Like I said, I like to read you. But, between the two of you, I find Avi much more honest and much more accurate than you. His analysis tells me when the market will turn through price and he is often almost to the penny.. And, while his site is clearly not for everyone, I can say that it took me some time to understand how EW works. Once I did, it opened my eyes to how markets really work, and the manipulation talk is just as excuse for being wrong. He has never said anything about manipulation, and has been more accurate than anyone else I have followed, especially in metals. But, that is just my own two cents . . . so people can take it for what it is worth.
That’s funny, because once I accepted that the markets were being manipulated and started to anticipate it I became much more accurate. I called the bottom in gold, while as I showed in the above link, Avi completely missed the bottom. I knew that the miners were being manipulated to break support and allow big money an entry. Avi was calling for traders to be short.
marketwatcher,,
who is fixated on whom….??!!
you started this in regards to avi
Gary s allowed to defend himself on his own site…. yes!????
On the 30.12.2015 AVi was short on the miners.
There was a big headline in his trading room or whatever:
” No long term buy miners or gold now ”
I almost stopped out my 10k NUGT positions…
The rally started 2 days later that was the last good entering point .
On the 30.12.2015 AVi was short on the miners.
There was a big headline in his trading room or whatever:
” No long term buy miners or gold now ”
I almost stopped out my 10k NUGT positions…
The rally started 2 days later that was the last good entering point .
Agreed upon the Gold analysis, however if Gold is not turning down within the next week or two, the cycle might be inverted and instead of a low mid June we will get a high, lets see how it unfolds.
Spx I disagree, in EW terms we are in a corrective trend, all major stock indexes are in a bear cycle right now, NIKKEI a potential -72% down move from the top in 2015, DAX in a bear, Hong Seng, Russia and India is in a bear trend. How would Spx be in a bull soon when rest of the world is in a bear, that’s is not how markets work.
I enjoy this forum and Kudos for Gary to not censor or delete posts that he doesn’t like.
I believe the bear cycle ended in February. The Dow is already making higher highs as is the advance decline line. It won’t be long before all the other indexes are also making higher highs, and new all-time highs. Although I have my doubts about a sustained breakout this year. The PPT didn’t allow the market to fully express the 7 YCL and test the 1550 level so we didn’t get the full stretch to the downside we needed to generate the fuel necessary for a breakout and run this year.
Steff-
Thanks~
kudos indeed…
Honestly gary, the way you present your point is that every analyst and retail trader is stupid and you are the Messiah.
They just use the wrong tools for spotting these big turns. At major tops and bottoms you need to follow sentiment and cycles. Classic example right now everyone is getting bullish on gold. That is crazy though as the miners have rallied 140%. If one is thinking logically you have to be nervous after 140% not bullish. But this is how it always is. Retail traders follow their emotions. Commercial traders tend to think a bit more logically.
I’ve said this before but it’s worth repeating again: Any serious trader should have a subscription to sentimentrader.com.
Gary, keeping doing your thing…… Your good bro !
Hi all, I am a day trader mostly and Consider myself good at it. WHY, I MAKE MONEY. I only visit less than 5-10 sites a day, I only post here…..
I don’t trade everyday as I’m a APT Bldgs owner and that’s time consuming sometimes. Retired Telco ENG……what I can say is Gary”s site is very useful and I respect his feedback. I dont follow exactly what be says, NO one should as you are Respo sible for your assets.
Gary’s info is good and I’m not even a Sub but will be. Why I’m not a Sub is right now it’s been pretty easy for to make a small buck
Keep it up Gary !!
Felt the same.
Saying someone stupid is fine with as long as Gary put money where his writing is.