Yearly cycle lows create massive bearish sentiment. They convince traders that the market is broken. It doesn’t matter whether it’s gold, oil, stocks, etc. It’s always the same. During the final few days of a YCL we always see a rash of articles calling for a bear market. We’re seeing it now in gold (just like we saw it in December of 2016). Stocks will be due for one of these big corrections sometime in late August or early September. When it happens I guarantee the top callers will be out in force, just like they always are during corrections, trying to convince people that a bear market has begun.

Folks bear markets start from left translated cycles. Cycles that top in 4-6 weeks and then make lower lows of an intermediate degree. The current intermediate stock cycle has rallied for 23 weeks. That’s the opposite of left translated.

So when we start hearing the calls for a crash, or a new bear market sometime next month, you’ll know it’s time to start buying.

We’re hearing that now in gold. I’m just waiting for a swing to start buying again. We’re close. Within 1-3 days.

I’ve been very bullish on the stock market … but this intermediate cycle is getting very long in the tooth. We made enough on our last stock trade to outperform most hedge funds over the entire year. That being said I’m close to being ready to get on the sidelines in stocks and just wait for the inevitable correction that’s bound to come sooner rather than later. Last year the intermediate cycle low came in August. There’s a good chance it could do so again this year.

Once we get past the FOMC meeting on August 1st traders should probably exit and go to the sidelines. We might even get a minor pullback into a half cycle low next week. That would probably be the last buying opportunity and it would only be for a short term trade.

The euro is 35 days into its daily cycle and now moving down into a DCL. It needs to break and close below the trend line first before finding a bottom. Gold should bottom when the euro does or maybe a day or two before if traders start to anticipate a bottom. I may be off by a couple of days and gold doesn’t bottom until early next week.

We’re still waiting for gold to form a swing. We’ve dodged this entire yearly cycle decline and even gained enough to push the SMT metal portfolio to new all time highs. We’re in a good position to profit once the bottom comes. Now 40 days into the daily cycle and nearing the 50% retracement from the 2015 bottom. Sentiment is excessively bearish in the entire commodity sector at this point, and the COT structure is becoming very bullish for metals in particular.

With today’s move to new lows the banks have managed to scoop up another $1.8 billion in shares of NUGT. Something really big is brewing, but I expect most of you will miss it because the banks have worn you out. You won’t be able to buy until most of the rally is already over.

I’ll say it again: a bottom sometime this week.

On another note, the perma bears just got kicked in the teeth again. The Nasdaq looks primed for a run to 8000.

Take notice of what’s happening.

NEM, SA, GORO, SAND, IAG, AEM, BVN, GFI, GG, GOLD, RGLD, NG, NSU, MUX

All green today. The mining sector is primed to deliver an amazing run very soon. Gold is 39 days into it’s daily cycle. I’ll make the prediction again: we are going to get the bottom sometime this week.

Gold didn’t quite complete the swing this morning before getting hit again. So we continue to wait. The further the rubber band gets stretched to the downside the harder it should rally once the selling pressure exhausts.

Miners are still diverging and many of the leaders are at, or very near intermediate highs. We haven’t seen miners resist like this in a long time.

Gold needs to get to roughly $1253 to complete the swing and break the cycle down trend line. With the dollar starting to break down it’s going to get harder for the banks to keep gold suppressed all the way into options expiration on Friday.

So far Friday’s undercut is still holding as the low.

The housing Market – Supply Is Starting To Pick Up

These people are so locked into a perma bear outlook all they can see are bubbles everywhere. The housing bubble already popped and it took it 12 years to recover. That’s about normal for a bubble to recover. We aren’t seeing anything like bubble behavior in anything right now, no matter how desperately these people would like to believe it.

Bitcoin was a bubble.

Housing, stocks, commodities, none of them are even vaguely close to a bubble right now.

Seriously people you really need to let go of the memory of 2008/09. It’s in the past. We aren’t going to repeat that anytime in the near future.

We’re waiting for a swing now. To form it today gold needs to rally above $1249. It got close this morning but not quite yet.