“The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center in Hawaii said a tsunami warning was in effect for Japan, Russia, Marcus Island and the Northern Marianas. A tsunami watch has been issued for Guam, Taiwan, the Philippines, Indonesia and the U.S. state of Hawaii.”
Hi – I’m in Japan – Tokyo – the earthquake was just north of here in Sendai. Mag 8.8, hit twice. Many dead – swept away by tsunami – Sendai airport inundated – cars and houses floating down rivers – a gas plant blew so am sure all workers there died in the blast or were burned alive – trains have all stopped so folks are stranded everywhere – phones all down – email and text msging are up though. My family are fine here – I have our money and passports packed w/clothes and water – there were 2 events – each lasting 5 mins or more – so it was very long – I flew out of our brick apt as I ain’t gonna die here, not now – am afraid to sleep now – every little wiggle has me jumping out of my skin and ready to grab the bags and flee – we are very lucky as it could be worse – Tokyo is the epicenter of 4 tectonic plates, w/volcanic Mt. Fuji at the center. Anyways I misse the Kobe one by a few months, but this one was 180 times more powerful – I fear it’s not over yet. In the end, alls one has is one’s integrity and one’s family. So far so good, and am so sorry for those who died or are still stuck away from home.
And to Paul’s point about tsunami’s and the tsunami warning in Hawaii, it’s no joke as the one that wiped out Hilo came from Chile I think it was – they are very powerful and can travel very far. And it’s the 2nd wave in the series that kills.
Gary, nice charts. About Bernanke, maybe he’s stupid, or maybe he’s in the pockets of GS and so on, but living out here in Asia for 30 yrs, near to China and N. Korea, part of me thinks that something else is going on, like national security. I don’t have anything to back that up with, just I have a hard time believing that so many ivy league execs are that stupid or that greedy. So I’m just saying I don’t know why they’re doing what they’re doing, but you’re right that the dollar will fall and commodities will rise. I did hear something about China and silver a few yrs back – maybe old news, maybe not.
Did you all know that gold was formed in a supernovae a few billion yrs ago? I think every element heavier than carbon came from supernovae explosions.
Did you know that Timbuktu is an actual place, in Africa, where gold from the south was traded for salt from the north, oz for oz?
These are last words in case I don’t see the morning. Had to leave my mark on your blog, Gary!
It’s not death that we humans fear, it’s the suffering just before.
The dollar should be soaring right now, yet it’s struggling to remain positive.
I don’t think it will be long before the dead cat bounce is over and the dollar breaks through the November low. A slightly lower low by gold would set up the swing low we are looking for.
It’s a waste of time to pick a number on the chart at this point. We just have to wait for the cycle low to form. The warning sign would come if gold bounces out of the cycle low then rolls over and moves below that pivot. That would form a pattern of lower lows and lower highs.
But to just arbitrarily pick a number and say if gold falls below this it means the party is over is meaningless. The emotional metals market can easily break technical chart levels.
The only number at this point that would carry that kind of significance is $1307.
That was the last daily cycle low.
Gold would have to drop below $1350 to even break the intermediate trend line.
Phew! I have taken on board all of Gary’s advice and I have now managed to sell all of my precious metals. Just sold all my silver. Hopefully I will be able to buy it all back at the top of this C-wave thingy.
Just 3 days ago most scoffed at TZ suggestion of up to a 10% hit in Silver. Well it’s now 7% off the highs and counting.
As gold hopefully going to swing, it’s sharp down days like this that often bring about bottoms. A week of consolidation and 7% drop is the perfect setup.
Longish, broad ranging interview last night with Jim Sinclair – 35 year gold industry veteran – which discusses the action yesterday (violent moves happen around round numbers), trading gold (if you must trade, there are areas/triggers for trading), long term price targets (1600+), QE (it can’t stop), etc.
Much of what he suggests pretty directly supports many of Gary’s longer term views.
A word on inflation – I went to grocery store yesterday to buy 1 large fugi apple (not organic) and some water for lunch. Price of 1 apple $1.20 – I put it back and had water for lunch. Living in Northern CA is expensive, but this is ridiculous. Cheap gas is $3.87 – Don’t get lulled by this correction is metals. The hard stuff seems to hold up better than the miners. Maybe Gary can speak to that.
My exit plan-silver closes under the 20 MA for 2 days, I’m selling most positions.
Silver’s trendline now broken, 10 has been violated, 20 rising up around 33.44 on /SI. I think that 20 MA must hold or else this C wave stuff is not correct.
DOC has an alternative scenario on the dollar, which could be the reason why things may not take off for a bit longer.
On the contrary things are looking exactly like a daily cycle correction and people are now starting to make emotional decisions like selling into the bottom of a cycle correction instead of buying.
Silver will be down two days. Two days and everyone is starting to think it’s the end of the world.
Folks silver could go all the way back to $31 and all it would be is a test of the break out. Once the cycle bottom is in all losses could and probably would be recovered in 2-3 days.
If we close down today I have a decent chance at a system buy! I won;t know how likely until later in the day but will post. Nice to get these a little more frequently. Stocks/gold bottom together?
Think its good that Gary try to get the troops together because I see some panic here..I dont know why actually..A lot of people warned us that a cycle low correction will soon strike against us..
Gary, Poly and TZ warned us a week ago..This is why so few people will can add when the price go down..Panic..Some people will sell..
A think we are close to the bottom now in silver and gold..Bernanke is pissing his pants and will do anythink to prop the market up.
The dollar will soon fall back again..No reason to try and change the fundamental here..
Think 34,05 was the bottom in silver..Will soon be the swing we are looking for..
Actually I think the dollar will move down and under 77 today..
I’m not selling here Gary, I attempted to grab some SLW calls there at the open and that sucker ran away so hard I missed it.
I’m looking to top off, the 20 MA violation for 2 plus days would concern me and I would consider scaling back then. I don’t think that would happen. (Violation==daily close under followed by the next day taking out the prior days low)
I know lines on charts get broken all the time, but… DX backtested broken the 11/10 & 2/11 support trendline yesterday and today. Still below. GC backtested 12/10 & 1/11 broken resistance trendline yesterday. Looking for possible kiss goodbye on both.
If the miners continue to show relative strength today, it validates the idea this is just another typical pullback with each vehicle taking it’s turn correcting.
Thanks for posting. Glad you and your family are okay, but so sorry for those who didn’t make it.
Are you planning to leave the country any time soon? Good luck to you!
It’s strange and ironic that the “Pacific Ring of Fire” has several areas of high density populations. California and Japan come to mind, but there’s also the Philippines and Indonesia. The whole area is a time bomb that will go off again and again…
The dollar can’t form a swing today. But it did make a slightly higher high this morning. If it ends the day lower it will be set up to form the swing on Monday with any weakness at all.
I’m surprised to find my accounts barely in the red today considering how silver is acting. Still, I had some pretty hairy negative marks this morning (daily).
But the bigger picture is even at the worst levels on the open, I was still up roughly 30% on this round over the last couple months.
One thing the dollar does have going for it is that large specs are long at near record levels in the ausse, loonie, and euro vs the dollar at least for the past couple of years. This usually leads to a severe correction to wash these specs out. The last time spec longs were this long the euro, the euro dropped 14 cents over the next few months.
I know, but unfortunately I missed it. I was on the phone trying to wrap things up before the open but it went 2-3 minutes over. Too late!
I’m still scoping to add though, so thanks for those fib levels. they seem as good a place as any, so will buy weakness if we get it, or pay these prices if things meander at these levels into next week.
Congrats Romeo … I have 3 kids (umm adults!) … lots of good years ahead of you. By him/her some silver/gold coins. By the time their ready for college 1 gold coin outta do it 🙂
Gary: Thanks. Without your confidence and analysis I’d have cut back some this morning had I been on my own. As a result of your work I didn’t sell a share. I am relatively full up at this point so did not add but may add a little on the swing low being set. about 1/2 my net worth in silver is enough for right now, but as I get more room I may push it farther.
I’m really just recycling Gary’s info, to fit my style. 🙂 So yes, for me its a deal and I think smart money is buying, not panicking. I’ve done all the buying I can safely handle.
Gary’s post right above this is just perfect. He has been been so spot on down to the daily wiggles, it’s not even funny!
Close em now! If we close now I get a buy. Those of you who have been around a while know how good they have been. I will buy $300k or so worth of SPY’s if we get it. I am running out of cash with all this silver clogging up my account (j/k—happy to have it). Look for a post at 3:50 if the Dow is down modestly. An up day or big down day aborts it.
Well good news is that I slept through the horrible open but bad news is I still wanted to add to my AGQ/HZU. Shall I wait or just throw the rest of my dry powder in now?
Steven, I have no idea. But I do know that gold is now 29 days into it’s daily cycle (possibly day 1 if yesterday was the bottom). I know it tagged the 20 DMA yesterday. That combination is enough to go ahead and swing the bat even if it doesn’t turn out to be the exact bottom.
If today turns out to be the bottom I’m changing my religion to whichever one has you as god!
Oh, and as many burritos you can eat. I’m actually an investor in a burrito company so I’ll send you some when the C wave is over and you have a big appetite!
SB said: “If the miners continue to show relative strength today, it validates the idea this is just another typical pullback with each vehicle taking it’s turn correcting.”
That’s my take, too.
We could have got ’em a little cheaper today, but you had to be quick!
The decline in SLW halted on the quick retest of the puke-out lows from Thursday 2/24.
It’s late enough in the daily cycle that if that wasn’t the low it’s very close time wise. What are the odds you will catch the exact bottom even if it’s still ahead of us?
Virtually zero.
For me a touch of the 20 DMA yesterday represented value so I bought and I didn’t worry if it was the exact bottom. It was close enough.
Decide if you more worried about catching the exact bottom or can you be satisfied with close enough?
Thanks Gary, I should of just pressed the button when you said swing the bat because look at it leave the station now lol. Well, at least I’m glad I added with you yesterday.
Bede: Re my book: I have been keeping my professional life (author/public speaker) off the blog. Not sure why to tell you the truth, but am—for now—more comfortable that way so sorry, the book will need to stay a secret. It deals with how to master your thoughts and emotions (very useful for a trader!) and I sent it to Gary as a “thank you.” I train Special Forces troops, NASA test pilots, SF Police Academy, Navy, corporate executives, etc.
I picked up Leal Life by Dr. Phil McGraw for $2 at Odd Lots. Preparing for the 7 Most Challenging Days of Your Life. Anyone read any of DPs books? Let’s see?
The most challenging 3 months of my life may have been when the unexpected USD rally stretched this gold c-wave grand finally. What caused it again? Euro nation soverign debt? Lag in production dlayed oil price increases?
SB: To master the instinctive reactive process. When the lymbic system part of your brain kicks in you do stupid things (like sell in a panic or curse out your mother-in-law). While an automatic response we can train ourselves to overcome the normal flood of chemicals. That’s what martial artists train to do. You slap one in the face and their neural response is actually calm—not passive, just not out of control. If they decide to take you out you are dead, but it is a conscious choice not a “I can;t stand it” kind of response. This is a learnable skill and we have trained over 20,000 people the past 15 years.
NASA has test pilots? Guess they used to land the shuttle.
Military training Terrorizes you. Gets you ready to think on your feet, etc. Retire?
One of my instructors had a million stories, about all he was good for. When he was fireman, they ran through burning magnesium. They had to have fire hoses spraying on them to keep from incinerating.
What would really scare me is climbing a 60 fool ladder.
Before you get too excited Beano, take a look at the charts. First day up on SOX, and it can only manage .5% while everybody else is scoring left and right with metals.
Seriously, peeking in on the first measely day up after a thorough beating doesn’t bolster your case, IMO.
At this point I would say the odds are very high gold’s daily cycle has bottomed.
We should see a weak bounce in stocks over the next few days as commodities start to spike. But it won’t be long before surging inflation causes the stock market to roll over and make another lower low.
beanie, You are confusing expectations of intermediate tops with a final bull market top. back in Jan I was just expecting an intermediate top.
Now I’m saying there’s a good chance the cyclical bull has topped. It seems pretty clear the intermediate cycle has topped. Now we just have to see if the decline breaks below the November low.
If that happens the odds skyrocket that the cyclical bull is finished.
Nobody is perfect, but I recall Gary picking big runs in equities, especially the low out of the Summer to new cyclical bull market high’s.
But this isn’t about the specific calls, your history of trolling these types of sights and going against the grain is legendary. In fact going as far back as 2007/08 you’ve been hitting the site, guess you’re Gary’s oldest fan 🙂
Guys, Beenie is right. I’m on his team, forget this ridiculous fear trade. The global economy is poised for an explosion of growth. We will see DOW 20K within 3 months. Tech stocks will be bought by homeless people and your great grandmothers. Doom and gloomers will be trying to sell their worthless silver to any and all takers under 5 bucks a share.
To save you the cost and agony of a black belt, I just meditate. Instead of blowing up at my in-laws, I pretend I am putting a run to their head and pulling the trigger; then of cource, there are consequences. Not worth it.
Poly clown – stop bashing Hammy – as Hammies NAV is at new all time highs – despite gold and silver and crude still ways of their highs.
Up over 743% as of now since October 2010, when I started recording my NAV. Besides being in physical since almost a decade. Still own phyisical silver I bought below $7.
So do you think i care a second about your (or others) continued hatred here?
BTW i report my NAV almost each day in my blog – do you – or the other bashers here???
Call me gloating … call me this, call me that … i report facts, I report sometimes when i exit, or when i reenter … do you think I care what you think about me?
Trading is not about bashing other poeple – but about trading and learning from those who have a proven record in being profitable. Either shortterm or mediumterm or longterm.
Trading is about making money – and having ones eyes on the charts. Those which have time to bash others – are usually worthless crap just filling space.
BTW I like what Gary offers in his protected area – but the hatred presented in this blog – is beyond what I have seen before. Just the Yahoo boards are worse. And calling Kitco a site with penny dealers just confirms that thsi site is just about bashing and a few glory insiders.
Same as was with gold-eagle. That board is dead as of now. Due to the folks posting here – intolerant like here.
Is there any way you can change your name back to vuvvy? I keep picturing you sitting there infront of your computer in drag. NTTAWWT… And now that everyone is using pics of Bernanke the image in my mind has morphed into one of Ben in drag.
I actually like all of your analysis. I was disheartened when you shut your blog off to the public. Is there anyway I would be able to procure an invite? Thank you,
One more thing about retail investors.. There’s just no way the top in the market is anywhere near. Look at how reactive people are. Every negative headline they see, it’s considered doomsday. They’re a truck of emotional wreckage. Some people will never get over the devastation of 2008. Some never will. Many are still afraid to come back, and they haven’t…yet. But when they do, there’s no stopping this equities market.
Precious metals doing nicely. Lucky for them they actually pulled back. I was hoping they do the parabola to $50 silver and get it over with.
You can contact Glenbridge Publishing via their website or at (800) 986-4135. It’s a little cheaper there than at Amazon. It is not available on Kindle yet though ought to be sometime this year. “Freedom from Stress” by David Gamow
Jennifer, I am LMAO! I most certainly am no drag queen:):)The last thing I need is another E-mail address/password; I think my daughter changed the user name to discourage me from using it but I don’t have a gmail account of my own.
There is only 7 left on Amazon. Should be interesting, having been around type As all my life (military brat/spouse). I do believe your technique as they have to perform daily and on with a constant alert status mindset.
Hammy, MLMT, and others: The rejection you both got is not about winning and losing. It is not about your ideas and predictions. It is about being arrogant and obnoxious. I don’t really care whether you are up 10% or 1,000%. Show respect, don’t brag, don’t prey on people’s emotions when things are going against them, and you—and anyone else—is most welcome here. I love this blog. There are lots of smart people with different specialties and perspectives, and it is generally very civil. If you are getting grief maybe it’s you. Just a thought. It’s conceivable, anyway.
Beanie, Bull markets end when something fundamental breaks. Surging inflation will break this bull.
Surging inflation has already broken most emerging markets. and in today’s high unemployment environment I suspect surging food and energy prices have already broken the US economy.
Now Ben is going to make it much much worse by trying to prop everything up the same as he did in 08.
It will just spike inflation even higher guaranteeing the collapse will be much worse than it had to be.
Like I said you could do yourself a huge favor by learning cycles analysis so you don’t ride the next bear all the way down.
I agree with what DG said. I was one of the people who responded to your post because I thought it was about revenge. Don’t know if someone made fun of your previous post when you said you were expecting a short term top, and therefore you felt the need to come back and rub it on everyone’s face…
Why is it so difficult for Hammy to understand that we’re trading different time frames? He states gold had a sharp decline, while people here see it’s just 1.5% off all time highs that were recently made.
Amazing, and then suggests we have too much free time while he’s flat now, running his own site, AND and has the time to comment here even though he said he never would. It seems to be a pattern that those who “dump” SMT still feel compelled to come back. lol
And he forgot to tell us when he’s buying gold again. 🙂
Swing lows in gold and silver should be easily attainable now, and my system will go back to a buy in 1440’s.Gary’s promised rocketship is getting fired up:)
It’s not my style, or even in my comfort zone to trade 40x leverage for a few slivers of profit per contract, especially when I believe a much larger move is on the horizon.
And the downside to leverage is that it’s harder to stay in when pullbacks occur.
Gary, I guess you are more bullish on the USD than I am. I think we are going to get hyperinflation, not just high inflation, and in a hyperinflation (Weimar, Argentina, Israel, Brazil) all assets go way up in nominal dollars, includng stocks. PMs will do better than stocks, of course. High inflation squeezes profit margins and knocks stocks down, but hyperinflation is a whole ‘nother world.
Hammy, it’s not what you say … it’s how you say it … no one wants to be treated like a child even if they are. Tone down your delivery … even your tone today is extremely self aggrandizing. Get over yourself … please! Now having said that … I could care less … if you feel like helping us make money I’ll still listen 🙂
I’m not sure why the bears are always telling the bulls they’re wrong and that they know nothing. They said the same back in 1970’s…that’s it’s all over..that inflation/deflation/deficit or whatnot is gonna wreck havoc and that the markets are finished. They said that the fundamentals are breaking back in early 1980’s, and soon the market took off regardless. They said the same in the early 1990’s, and soon thereafter the market took off. I would give the bears credit being absolutely right, in 2008. But that’s just 1.5 years in so many many years. It’s probably not a good idea to push it, when stats just don’t favor it.
The Hammy makes an appearance! This guy with the 3rd person stuff is priceless. What joke.
You tried the same crap on Turd’s blog and embarrassed yourself there too. You went back and deleted all your gloating posts after the fact.
Metalsking, Cyclist and the other gurus were all pimping those Canadian natural gas pink sheets to the groupies there who should have been going long mining stocks last summer. I was there and saw it live. The majority of the worthless traders there got good people to take horrible NG trades vs. buying some metals plays at the launch of an epic run last summer/fall. Like it or not, that’s what happened almost all year last year.
Bill- I just read your comments. I liked your quote “In the end, alls one has is one’s integrity and one’s family.” Good luck over there. It sounds horrific.
Looks like we got our swing this morning with Gold breaking above the high from yesterday. My trades were triggered and increased positions by appx 5%. My last add will be on a break of the high in Gold which should take me to apx 95% invested if the daily bottom is indeed in place.
Thank you, Gary. It is so much easier dealing with these down drafts when you are screaming buy and I am scared that I might have to sell. Hope you have a great weekend.
>I think we are going to get hyperinflation, not just high inflation, and in a hyperinflation (Weimar, Argentina, Israel, Brazil) all assets go way up in nominal dollars, includng stocks.
While I don’t agree with the extreme MMT nonsense that the USD can never hyperinflate, (it could happen at anytime) it will take some effort from Ben. The majority still think of things in terms of how many dollars, not in terms of value and most US citizens have debt that must be paid in dollars as well as their taxes, creating demand, besides the USD is spread over the entire world, not just a small area like Zimbabwe.
As well there is the extreme swings of sentiment that are always in the market.
I think Gary’s view that we will have another (several?) cycle of equities down and dollar up make sense if you consider how hard it is to hyperinflate the dollar combined with the realties of sentiment/cycles.
I think you’re confusing kidding–okay maybe a little beyond kidding–with hatred. I don’t believe those who were spoofing on your posts actually hate you. Ridicule yes, hatred, I don’t think so.
(‘course, I don’t know them, so can’t say for sure, but I try to give people the benefit of the doubt, especially here on the web where it’s impossible to tell nuance.)
Most readers of this blog appreciate posts that have a different point of view. But sometimes someone comes on here to express a different point of view without anything to back it up, and it’s those posts that are generally not tolerated very well and often subject to ridicule. If you have analysis to back up your calls, that is usually very much appreciated.
“People all over the world (everybody) Join hands (join) Join the G train, G train People all over the world (all the world, now) Join hands (love ride) Join the G train (love ride), love train The next stop that we make will be soon Tell all the folks Like TK , and Hammy, too Don’t you know that it’s time to get on board And let this train keep on riding, riding on through Well, well… People all over the world (Join in, ride this train) Join in (Ride this train, y’all) Join the G train (Come on, train), G train All of you brothers over in kitco Tell all the folks like MLMT, and Beanie, too Please don’t miss this train at the station ‘Cause if you miss it, I feel sorry, sorry for you”
If the government doesn’t get the debt spiral under control we will have no choice but to hyperinflate as a last resort to buy a few more months or year.
The problem is that we have kicked the can down the road for so long that the consequences of fixing the debt spiral would require the US to default.
If that were to happen the globe would face a deflationary depression many times worse than the 30’s.
So the question is will we ever have the will power to unleash that kind of catastrophe or will we just keep kicking the can down the road until we break the currency?
So far it looks like kicking the can is the only option the US is willing to consider.
Hyperinflation is not Ben’s choice to make (sorry, SB). It is our creditor’s choice, and can happen in a few weeks. Hyperinflation is a loss of confidence in the currency.
I don’t disagree Techperson, I just think it is more probable that the USD lives in it’s current (sickly) state longer than most expect, while at the same time it is possible it could die at any moment.
Nice turnaround action today. If I hadn’t already loaded up and topped off the accounts yesterday at 1405ish it would have been nice to add more at the open.
Just imagine if China has been the underlying bid in the gold market since the 2001 bottom and they announce that the Yuan will now be backed by gold.They would instantly be the world’s reserve currency and I imagine lotsa dollars would come pouring back to us.It wouldn’t even have to be a loss of confidence in the USD to cause hyperinflation.Then again,what do I know about currencies? not much 🙂 but I can’t imagine that would be a good thing.
Dang. I was looking at GLD. I guess I should have used Gold itself. The top in GLD was 138.50. We past that. Oh well. If we go lower without the swing low I’ll add on the next swing low and call it good.
Catbird: Yep. Great book. Changing one’s attitudes on a deep level can change an entire life. Dr. Tharp works with traders in just this way and has turned 20% a year guys into 150% a year guys without them learning any new trading skills. We have all sorts of attitudes we are not aware of that undermine us. Every truly great pro athlete knows this. Making a conscious effort to eliminate those conflicting attitudes can make an absolutely huge difference in trading, relationships, business, and everything else.
On a trading note: Someone (Don’t remember who) posted last week that sugar looked good. I posted that it had just shown up on my short screen right then. It did rally for a day but then tanked 10% the next three days. I respect the people on this blog and it is sometimes makes it hard for me to stick to my own ways. I got the same kind of sell on SLV at 35.50 last week. Given my trying to emulate Gary’s approach I did nothing, and maybe it was right to do nothing. I am still trying to figure out how to integrate what he does with what I do.
And, damn, the SPX is rallying! I want that down close to get that buy signal. Wouldn’t mind making some thousands on a trade to add to silver as we go higher. Oh well.
DG, I ordered your book from amazon. Look forward to reading it, will take it with me on my 6 week trip (ahhh) coming while the C crest occurrs. Hope, I can keep my eyes in the book and off the screen. 🙂
The dollar has, in just half a day, given back just about all of its 4 day gains from the cycle low. Not much talk about it today, but that is truely impressive, especially in lights of “the news”.
at ease: Enjoy! Hope you are going someplace great. And we probably have passed the danger zone in the PM’s so no need to look. Maybe AGQ will be 275 when you get back!
Im not sure who trades oil here, but the easiest trade in the univerese seems to be playing WTIC versus brent. WTIC is again widening its range, meaning oil under 100 for a meaningful amount of time is unlikely, unless of course brent starts pulling back hard to close the gap.
Was suppose to be a relaxing trip, but now I am worried about being away form the screen when the trigger has to be pulled. I don’t leave until mid April, (thankful I fly on Saturdays both ways), so at least I know I should have access to puter except for two weeks. So I really hope it doesn’t happen at that time. My only worry, now that I see things back up in the accounts.
Because I’m so negative on the dollar, I look for smart people on the other side of the trade to understand their thinking. Steve Sjuggerud is a smart guy, and wrote this today in DailyWealth:
Time to Bet on a RISING U.S. Dollar? By Dr. Steve Sjuggerud Friday, March 11, 2011 You hear it over and over…
“Because of all the debts and the deficits, the dollar is about to crash.”
Yes, the debts and deficits will come home to roost in the long run…
But is the dollar going to crash right now? Right this second? Should you bet on it crashing tomorrow?
I say no… The dollar looks poised for a three-month rally, as I’ll show you today.
Let’s start with the most basic question first. When people talk about the dollar crashing, what do they mean?
Usually, they mean a trip to Europe will cost you a fortune, as an example… They mean a dollar won’t buy you much outside the U.S.
By that standard, the dollar has already crashed… Goods in Europe are already 30% more expensive than the U.S. So the euro is expensive relative to the dollar. (Meanwhile, European countries have big debts and deficits, too.)
Longtime DailyWealth readers know we size up just about every investment opportunity on three factors. We look for things that are 1) cheap, 2) hated, and 3) in an uptrend.
Let’s take a look…
The dollar is cheap… as I described above. The euro is expensive. You’re reaching the point where Europeans can buy stuff from the States, ship it home, and sell it for a profit. This situation can’t last forever.
The dollar is hated… Currency traders have bigger bets against the dollar than at any time since late 2009 – the last time the dollar bottomed and kicked off a massive rally. And our friends at SentimenTrader say investor sentiment on the U.S. dollar is more bearish than on any other commodity… a strong contrarian sign. Sentiment signals usually are good for about three months.
The uptrend? It’s not here yet, but it’s close… The dollar has strengthened this month. The euro topped out on March 4 at $1.40, and it’s already down to $1.38. Our True Wealth Systems computers tell us the dollar only needs to rise 1.5% for it to be in an uptrend – in “buy” mode.
If the U.S. stays on its path of ever-increasing debts, the dollar will surely be the casualty.
But with history as our guide, the dollar has a chance to have a three-month rally… particularly once we see a real uptrend kick in. Then we’ll have all three factors in “buy” mode.
If you’re planning on betting against the dollar today, I urge you to be careful…
The dollar is cheap, it’s more hated than it’s been in years (the last time it was this hated, it started a major rally), and it might be starting a new uptrend now.
These are the conditions for a “buy,” not a “sell.”
While you may want to bet against the dollar, I think you’d be better off doing nothing today…
Too many people are already betting against the dollar right now, and many of those are new bets. The typical outcome in this situation is a somewhat violent move upward that knocks those new speculators out of the trade.
In short, if you want to bet against the dollar, consider waiting instead… You may get a much better opportunity in a couple months. ————— So his 1.5% from yesterday’s close would be 78.44. Now I’m going to see if that makes sense as a stop on my dollar short, at first using the fractal charts. Anyone else see the signficance in 78.44?
aaron: I am short OIL right now (did it at 28.04). Are you saying a widening spread between WTIC and Brent is bullish? The whole universe is wildly bullish on oil so I had planned to hold the short for a while after nailing the high…? The $ drop is also supportive of higher oil but not today 🙂
Techperson: Sjug is not a short -term trader, and he’d be the first to admit it. His calls are very good, but what he has said does not disagree with a 4-6 week spanking for the dollar. He is right that sentimentrader shows public bearishness, but the COT reports are bullish for the dollar, but not remarkably so. If we are to make a 3 year cycle low we should get overwhelming bearishness at that bottom so having moderate bearishness now makes sense to me. Another leg down will spike the bearishness just in time for the C-wave to finish.
DG, historically the difference between Brent and WTIC has been 5-6 dollars. The fact that Brent was running up WAY before WTIC even budged was a telling sign, and it continues to lead the way. This gap is unnatural, and thats why this current (large) gap is unsustainable. People are trading the news on oil, when in reality Brent has been leading the way before Libya was even mentioned in the news. You might be right about short term moves (I know your technical analysis is legit), but unless Brent starts pulling back, WTIC is destined to move higher regardless of Libya or Suadi.
Thanks aaron. How can you tell that WTIC will go up rather than Brent going down to close the large and unusual gap? Does Brent tend to lead like the miners lead the metals?
Thats the million dollar question 🙂 Many have been playing the spread, yet everyone seems to have an opinion on why or how this is to be explained. My personal take is that the US controlled WTIC is a lot more ‘controlled’ for a lack of a better word, while our gasoline prices mimic the moves of Brent. Brent seems to be setting the pace, from the looks of it, and looking at the movements, it seems like WTIC is the one thats following Brent instead of vice versa. Currently the spread is 13 dollars or so, I remember that right before Libya broke out, it had gotten as high 18, which is why WTIC seems to be playing catch up in my opinion, but you are right, Brent could crash down over night, yet, now, thanks to Libya it seems rather unlikely, since Brent is a hostage to Libya a lot more than WTIC is.
I think this news may spur the interest of some pension funds…
Silver Wheaton CEO, Peter Barnes, says silver prices, which are expected to continue rising over the next few years mean the company sees the possibility of paying out as much as half its cash flow each year in dividends Author: Julie Gordon (Reuters) Posted: Friday , 11 Mar 2011
I think there is still a decent chance that the S&P will test these lows once again, maybe on Tuesday because of FOMC release. I plan to add the other half of my ES position if we test the lows, otherwise I will just ride with half a position.
Took me an hour to catch up on all the posts today..wow! great stuff too.
DG
2 seminars and now 1000 book sales this week!!…You owe it to the community to put all that fresh money in silver 😉
Gary
Very nice call , I too believe the 20sma was it. ( The dollar ,I’m not quite sure, but the IT Low of Jan had metals UP , and the Dollar up together at first).
Many bullish engulfings on the daily charts (reversals) if anyone cares. SLW EXK GPL CDE etc
oa92: No. I can only get buy signals on a down day for the Dow. It’s designed to pick off bottoms after a few days down or so. I needed a down close (without getting killed) to get it. Too bad! This kind of action is not uncommon, where we are down and it’s ready to get triggered but the underlying forces don’t wait and we shoot up. Unfortunately the odds are not good trying to game it mid-day.
Alex: You don’t know much about publishing! I make about $1 per book. I promise to put the entire $4 into silver. The only way to make any money as an author is to sell a million copies, which—trust me—I ain’t done. I wrote it because people used to ask for a book I could recommend after attending my program, so I thought I’d better write one.
Well … thanks Gary and all subs … it was an trying week but I managed to hold on. In my pre SMT life I would have bailed for sure … instead I have learned to buy when it’s impossible and have an even better position now then I did on Monday. Thanks All.
Yep, thanks to all for collectively keeping our/my cool.
Special mention to Gary of course but I also appreciate Alex’s detailed thoughts.
I’ve always been a short-term trader simply because I couldn’t stomach the down days. This method worked okay for me as I didn’t lose money but the problem is it is a lot of work and you can’t make the big money unless you bet big.
Anyhow, learning to hang on to my positions has probably been my biggest lesson I’ve gleaned from Gary et al.
Have a good weekend everyone and godspeed to all those affected by the events in Japan.
Correct, but with 1000 books sold & the 2 seminars 🙂
As I read the blog and saw Hammy return, I had a few thoughts.
I think its really just all in fun humor ( kind of like Saturday Night Live skits..poking fun of politicians, celebs,Mayor of N.Y. etc for a laugh-but later they have some of those they joked about on the show later-Tina fey doing Sarah Palin,but later Palin came on,etc ).
Hammy thought it was “hate” on the blog. Its just humor/satire. I dont ‘hate’, but I laughed pretty good when I read it (was that PIMA?),and saw that PICTURE-I dont believe that it nor SNL is ‘hate’ hammy, just entertaining.
Just my 2 cents ,I guess-and 2 cents isnt worth anything at all these days,really. 🙂
I tend to think you’re right on the S&P. If the QE2 trade and dollar collapse is on the cards, I’m thinking all risk assets will continue to rally, as they have done to date.
aAlso: you and I may be keenly aware of the DXY’s approach of the abyss, but not 1 American in 1,000 even knows what the DXY is.
But they can read about CPI every month in USA Today…the Ben Bernank can count on the US Govt’s propaganda arms to assure them that inflation is not a problem.
There is a price for everything and US debt will just need to be priced a little higher, possibly. High deficits to GDP were easily being funded in the past and there is no expectation that they won’t be funded without the FED buying. The FED buying has alienated a lot of buyers and once they leave the market many will come back to it. If the risk trades start to fail you will also see a substantial return to wanting to own treasuries.
Of course higher interest rates is not going to help equities….or the economy.
So from that stand point I expect future QE’s. I just don’t think future buying is required to support deficit spending, but rather to keep the economy from chocking.
All that happened in April of 2010 is that the Fed PRETENDED that it had stopped buying-up every bond in sight. Obviously ONE of the reasons why it’s so frantic about preventing an “audit” is that it’s TERRIFIED about people finding out the TRUTH of what’s actually there – i.e. how many more $100’s of billions or $TRILLIONS that it has printed but not admitted to .
Simply, the U.S. bond market would INSTANTLY COLLAPSE if the bond-buying Ponzi-scheme ever ended
Well managed to get up to 130% in with last few % of agq this morning at 192 No news all day and just caught up and happy for people who were sounding really stressed earlier Might be changing from skeleton back to fat gold budha after 1430 Congratulations to Romeo Hammy and beanie bless them But really my heart goes out to our Japanese friends
Gary Any chance you can put the last day updated on stops and trade triggers page Eg Stops and trade triggers (march 8th) Make it easier to check when it was last updated appreciate the hui and gold ref
I’m sure that this has been discussed here multiple times but I am new to the site (not trading though)… Is there a fear of paper silver not being able to deliver on the physical? Or is that just rumor? Also, if you can get more levergage out of the futures markets, why dont investors here trade the e-mini silver contracts as opposed to silver etf’s? Just wanted to see everyones thoughts. Thanks
Before the weekend starts, I would lie to thank you for your amazing analysis…I follwed it exactly ….and it seemed to work…yesterday, I left 2 orders, one to buy 5 april gold at 1403 and one at 1396… Got done on the first one. Today, when the dollar was ralkying, I gathered some strenght and bought eur/usd atv1.3820…after a tough start, I am now feeling better on the position… Thanks again for making us getting better atvdealing with a very volatile market!!!!
At ease Well we all got to keep the humor with these swings And in this c meaning d is just around the corner! I,m ok at this stress after all it’s not life and death and I think the swing we are in is pretty middling to mild I just brace for more expect the worst and laugh if it don,t happen and of course listen to the advice from Gary and the team on the blog glad I grabbed more and missed the rest of the day
I bought some AGQ at the money options (not many, Gary). These are the options that have a large spread between the bid and ask.
Apparently, the ask price is quite negotiable. I entered a price between the bid and ask and it felt like someone reached into my computer to grab the offer before I could get the mouse totally clicked.
My offer was obviously too high, even though it was nearly half way between the bid and ask.
Just a heads up to anyone contemplating buying some of these.
Yes, Wes, I felt the same way yesterday with AGQ. I started less than half way lower and then added 5 cents each time until it was accepted as a buy. That seemed to work. Takes some playing, but I hate overbidding then someone behind me gets it cheaper. 😉
Gary can you explain to us in a future report what you mean when you say you expect the price action ending the c wave to take place in 2 smaller cycles?
We just got the first daily cycle of this larger intermediate cycle. I expect there will be two more of these smaller daily cycles before the final top.
Gary, Sorry I must have missed it when you put out the ball park targets for this c-wave on Silver and AGQ. Can you tell again? And also just making sure I understand correctly that you think this c wave will be over by May? Thanks for sharing your work and knowledge.
It’s all in the nightly reports. I always suggest new subscribers read through at least 3-4 weeks so they can get up to speed with what we’re tracking.
I’m staying the course and sitting tight. I think you got something going there with your cycle work.
Saw an interview with Nenner on Tech Ticker the other day. He’s also all about cycles, but from what I can tell his track record for the past two years has been so so. He mentions in that interview that he is out of gold, naturally at the exact top ;), and that his cycle work is telling him that gold should have topped out. While I am not so impressed with him anyway, I wonder why the cycle guys are not all saying the same thing? Shouldn’t he know that there is more C wave to come? Just wondering, perhaps you can explain why cycle analysts come to different conclusions….
Definitely don’t want to be in bonds. The bond bull is over.
Probably don’t want to be in stocks after a 100% rally. Either get into the secular gold bull or sit in a money market until the next 4 year cycle low.
Nenner is focusing on gold when he should be looking at the dollar.
Besides as we all know cycles are mostly worthless for spotting tops. When someone tries to tell you his cycle analysis can spot a top you pretty much know he’s probably full of crap.
vuvvy ( now veronica i think) thinks he can pick tops.. if he will sell you a 200 dollar subscription ill pay for it. then you can learn if he really can pick them =)
If I am not mistaken, Nenner’s cycle work is based on pattern recognition. Basically he looks at the current trends, tries to match it to something in the past and use that to predict the future. So his “cycle analysis” has quite a different flavor to Gary’s and Doc’s.
Another guy who uses cycles is Larry Edelson from Uncommon Wisdom. He has been recommending his subs to stay out of gold and they have missed the runup from Jan/Feb. I think they will also miss the runup till the top of this C wave.
I mean even if you look at TA, 10 technical analysts in a room might give you 10 different recommendations and predictions 🙂
i was watching that Nenner guys also when he went on Tech Ticker but if i remember correctly he also said the stock market will top out in april and we will have economic retraction for another year. However no mention of the dollar
I agree. If you look at a lot of cycle work others do, its really about patterns. There X day or week cycle will be “turning point” cycles where tops and bottoms may align with the time period. Very different vs Gary. It seems most of them are really hit or miss and not very reliable for true market turning points, or maybe I haven’t been looking at them long enough and QE is screwing them up.
Also Gary’s approach to cycles is supplemented by his knowledge of gold’s ABCD wave pattern. Doc on the other hand uses trendline breaks to determine if cycle lows have occured.
Both of them use sentiment and intermarket analysis (e.g. looking at how the dollar or bonds may affect gold).
The other cycle analysts do not seem to do inter-market analysis or use sentiment indicators.
Care to explain given today’s events, why with the USD struggling, gold couldn’t make a better showing? I see a $20 range. We have had $20 daily ranges on milder news.
Alex My pin money Alex pack is break even Auy Pzg Goro Exk doing well
Any updates on that lot 🙂
March 11, 2011 4:18 PM
FATBOY
I think those charts look fine ( love the EXK reversal and PZG has been a good % runner,tapping on the 50sma last 2 days 🙂 Some of the GOLDS are just underperforming the silvers a tad. I am heavier GPL, EXK, AXU, SLW, AGQ in my basket.
I have been watching the GOLD stocks, because if they move , I hope they play catch up and catch fire!! ( some are below their 50sma, and I just dont like that yet). Honestly, I wanted to load up on NG -Nova Gold- today as it filled the gap. I believe this will double from $12 -IF- it gets moving, but for now I went into more silver stocks. {Maybe swap later}?? That said- AUY looks close to wanting to break out big too, but we’ll see what it does as it nears its old highs.
Have a great wkend guys-thinking of Japan and Bill too.
Great call Gary, Great blog Gary. Its the only one I frequent ( quality, not quantity when it comes to input here) you attract quality people/traders 🙂 Thanks again
Gary, If we are to have two more cycles before C crest, will it go down as it did in the last two days? Just trying to anticipate what to expect, as it made this week a bit easier to ride through, knowing what to expect. Also, would help on buy ins.
… this is the only blog and service I use now and daily since I am fully in for the bull ride, I have come to look forward to the daily blogs for sentiment and added knowledge to Gary’s posting for learning and understanding this bull. All the other services, I paid for this past year, I don’t even open the emails or tips now, since I hear don’t do this, do this and it runs contrary to a lot of what we are doing. I want to focus on this bull ride. I do go and read subs recommendations and articles as I want to stay knowledgeable, however I think the most important lesson I learned this year was don’t invest in anything you don’t understand or enjoy cause bottom line, it’s your pocket that gets filled or emptied. And I have learned to trust my gut on my own my own moves. I can’t even tell you how many times I lost money on someone giving me an option tip from other services and they don’t give you a reasonable in/out or hold. I don’t want to be distracted by the naysayers and those who tell you where to make a dime when their are dollars to be made. Have lost enough in that learning process and made it back to my account with gold before I found SMT. So I knew there was money to be made in them their hills, I just needed a good guide to get me there and keep me focused. Gary has proven himself to me he knows what he is doing since Feb of this year. I am just glad I found his service (still don’t know how, it was a friend who encouraged him to do a online seminar), however like all the other subs, I am very greatful to be here. I didn’t realize how stressful this week was until I came home and crashed tonight and woke up to check for updates. 🙂 Thanks all for your inputs and updates, I have come to rely on them and enjoy them. Thank you Gary! 🙂
vuvvy ( now veronica i think) thinks he can pick tops.. if he will sell you a 200 dollar subscription ill pay for it. then you can learn if he really can pick them =)
200.00 dollar subscription? I’m not selling anything here and will give my signals for free as long as I don’t get beat up by others.I’ve given my real time signals with my system buy at 1344, the sell at 1423(20.00 from the top)and how I interpret that sell(many times marking the exact bottom to the day early in an IT cycle, fingers crossed hoping that it did exactly that)Whether we have 1 or 2 more cycles up I would imagine my system should do OK and if it forms any blowoff tops should come close to taking profits 1-3 days from the top.
Thought the following information from Harvey Organ’s Thursday night report might be interesting for you (and others). I’ve included a quote but here’s the complete link:
“That is the mechanics of the raid. Later in the commentary, I will talk about the mechanics of the short sales on the mining companies. As a rule when you see gold and silver rise big time and the shares of big mining companies remain stationary or fall, generally that is the signal that a raid will begin in full force the next day. Also a raid generally begins the day before the big (phony) jobs report on the first of every month.”
PS depending on when you read this, the Thursday report might have already been replaced by the Sat. report
Fidelity Select Gold has a 30 day Short-term Fee Period, with a 0.75% Short-term Trading Fee. Just a heads up for those wanting to transfer $$$$ from fund to fund. Don’t get caught paying fees trying to get out at the end of the C-Wave.
I must say it has been amazing watching Gary’s work and how it interacts with mine since last summer.It has given me confidence to trade larger positions at certain times.Gary, thanks for that:)I’d gotten a away from cycle theory since the imprisonment of David Marantette, who was just a spectacular cycle timer,and have not been able to find anyone else to learn cycle work from till I found Gary’s work. To all newbies in gold, Gary is the REAL DEAL, in a space dominated by many writers I would consider border line mentally ill.
Veronica Nice comment , there seams huge madness out there evidenced by some of the forays the make here My first blogging experience is garys blog now for the last year and a half, I have visited other market blogs half a dozen times So What time I do get to read blogs I don,t want to waste elsewhere and appreciate those here who do it for me , thanks
I did not mean to sell it to the board. It was chat and I meant no insult to Gary . I do know that I like learning from the whole board and I am thrilled to follow Gary wholly I’m fully aware I’m the flea trying to ride the bull, just now I’m getting the chance to bite it in the axx Thanks all
Jeff You and I in the same boat The plan I try to follow is that When there is real action on the board I stop chatting and try to learn and its veronica and others I listen to……..
Alex thanks for the update appreciated as you know I am just playing with those few juniors and forgot to mention axu too rest in the silver triptych Have a good weekend all…
Come, cheer up, my lads, ’tis to glory we steer, To add something more to this wonderful year; To honour we call you, as freemen not slaves, For who are so free as the sons of the waves?
Paul, good reminder on mutual funds (30 days), I placed funds back in February, with Gary’s insight into the C crest. So I would be sure to not get hit with fees. The mutual fund spread over miners, so I could concentrate on the stock metals. I also just pulled funds from my Annuity (no metals to invest in and as you all know, I just moved it into energy and metals, (not gold), so got a small fee to pull it out, but would rather pay fee than lose it), so adding some to IRA for more Gold and Silver and will hold the rest in cash to play. I didn’t want it disappearing when stock funds end up in money heaven. I actually made a good amount in the fidelity gold mutual fund last fall out of dumb luck on my first money all in for Gold. I just didn’t know where else to put funds last year and tired of terrible returns, so someone suggested putting it in gold to ride. I hadn’t played stocks at that time, but since have learned. But that move was the best I have ever done and looking for more. Anyhow, if you all are wanting reinforcement in your mind as to why you need to stay the course with Gary , there are two books I read that WILL keep you on course and will relay the outcomes of what is expected from the dollar printing. After reading these books, they got me into Gold and silver, however it is Gary that is going to lead us through the landmines of the market to get to the other side with funds intact and more. Good insight on the big picture: Great Super Cycle (DS) and Aftershock (new release coming out in March, brothers (D&RW). Follow Gary’s advice! Get out of stocks or your money big or small will end up in money heaven. Poof! Gone….
Great weekend report, Gary! And funny as well. Your comment that “…because some nitwit thinks some meaningless technical level got broken” had me laughing out loud.
If the Fidelity fund is the only PM choice you have to ride this C wave (say you’re in a 401k and have a limited list of funds you can invest in), I would NOT let the .75 percent fee stop me. PM’s can go up 2 or 3 percent in ONE DAY and if this is indeed the end of the C wave (one or two daily cycle lows after this one), then we would expect gains of at least 10 percent, and more than 20 percent is possible. Paying the .75 percent fee to get out early is down in the noise.
(I don’t know what the rules are with that fund, some funds you pay the fee if you get out within 30 days, other funds it’s longer, like 60 or 90 days. If it’s only 30, it’s possible the C wave will still be running when 30 days are up, so the fee would go away at that point anyway.)
Folks, perpetual QE is complete nonsense. It simply can’t happen. It’s easy to say there will be QE3 right now. But right now we aren’t in the middle of an out of control currency crisis.
I’ve warned many times not to extrapolate the past into the future.
It will be politically impossible to run QE3 in the middle of a dollar crisis.
Listening to this kind of nonsense will get you caught in the D-wave decline.
Trust me the dollar will bottom at the three year cycle low. Ben will be forced by the market to halt all QE operations. And the dollar will explode higher out of that major cycle bottom as the forces of deflation return to the world.
I am correctly positioned heavily in PM instead of wasting capital on shorting anything in stocks….ready for liftoff.
Maybe I am jumping the gun on this but would like to clearly understand *what is next*. I find I am confused by the last paragraph of the stock section, mainly in regard to the ‘forces of deflation’ and how this will affect shorting. I am not expecting an immediate answer in the blog. Please elaborate on the inflation/deflation aspect in future subscriber reports. BTW, your crystal ball seems to be quite finely tuned. I feel very lucky to have found you. I have never before made advances in my portfolio like I am now.
Jeff, yes but in fairness to our thick headedness … the terminology document does not make a distinction between “the prior intra day high” and what I think should be noted as “the prior intra day high that ALSO posted the lowest intra day low.” I’m not even sure that’s correct but we’re definitely getting closer. If Friday had posted a lower low than Thursday then Friday’s high would have been the high to beat but if Friday had posted a lower low AND a higher high … well my thick head is getting the better of me again … I better quit while I’m ahead. I know this is not an exact science but it’s nice to know why certain numbers/days are more important than others.
1- If we are on week 6 now heading in to the 7th week of this intermediate cycle and the daily cycles usually last 20-25 days, is it not possible we could have 3 more daily cycles left or do you expect the remaining two cycles to be stretched like this one was?(29days)
2- Will you try to trade the SLW calls at the end of this coming daily cycle and jump in at the beginning of the final daily cycle, after some profit taking with the same type of trade?
Something tells me your just going to hold SLW calls being they are June
Despite our shared respectful differences in thoughts at times, you really are a great coach. Keep up the great work for your subs! This week-end report really served the novice ones the best.
Pima, I transferred 40,000 to fidelity select gold in my 403 B and I do agree the .75% fee is peanuts compared to what I expect out of this C wave. I just wanted to make people aware. Nothing worse than sticker shock.
Raising your stops probably won’t work. Things will be insanely volatile at the top. You may get stopped out earlier than you’d like.
Also, in all likelihood, the first big drop will be major, and it could come before the market opens. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the market gap down huge on that day, so you get filled way below your stop.
You could see silver up $5 at the top, followed by a sudden $5 decline — meaning waking up to see AGQ down 20% at the open.
Those last few days will be dicey. You should be mentally prepared to leave some money on the table.
I would never buy a call the expires prior to when I expect the top to occur.
People buying March or April are trying to leverage up. I’m not trying to leverage massively. I just want to control the same amount of shares with options as if I had bought the shares and when I sell I want there to be plenty of time value still left in those options.
People need to read the options document again and take that information to heart if they are going to get involved with options.
If you don’t know what you are doing then don’t buy options. It’s that simple.
I treat AGQ not as leverage but as a very high beta stock, similar to a very volatile junior miner. I don’t actually have to borrow on margin to buy AGQ. So even though AGQ will move twice as much as silver I could have 100% of my capital in AGQ and not have to worry about a margin call.
The same couldn’t be said if I was borrowing 100% on margin to own 200% in SLV.
Generally you want to purchase options that exercise 3 months past when you expect to sell them. My SLV positions are all July for this reason. The decay in price over the final 30 days is very rapid. But then again, deep in the money options don’t carry a whole lot of time value to decay.
Bill, saw your post dude. Godspeed. My brother is in Tokyo also – he works for the Christian School of Japan. So far he’s alright. The acute catastrophe is over, now for the chronic mayhem. Screw the markets – get your family to safety. But I’m sure you know that. Geez, how horrific. All I can do is hope and pray for you folks over there. Believe me, I’m hoping and praying, baby!
Hi Tudor. Like your brother, we’re luckily out of harms way, including being upwind from the nuclear power plant. I’m now watching it on TV like you and everyone else. It’s very sad to see all the bodies. Some are still alive trapped in cars that floated down rivers after the dam burst. The quake was upgraded to a richter 9.0 now. There are 2000 confirmed dead now, though remember there were 230,000 dead in the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami, most in Indonesia. Not much to say, just unbelievable is all. Live straight I think, because with infinity behind us, and ahead of us, something else is surely going on.
covered the remaining 50% short gdx position around 56.XX.
covered 50% short GC from 1428 around 1404. In hindsight now, it was a mistake to wait to cover and go long for a lower level. I will not chase this as I see a larger down move soon before you folks see your 1550+. Again I may be wrong. I am also watching the same charts that Gary is watching.
slv puts – 50% that were remaining are pretty useless at this point. I have mentioned several times that i trade slv very small – never had much success with it on either the long or the short for some reason. May be my TA and patterns do not work with silver chart that well 🙂
I will hold GC to get stopped out at 1428. And will likely short GC again when the stock market tests the highs or makes marginal highs. I will look to go long GC sub-1310 sometime around early April for a ride to 1550+
I have a question about the 4 year cycle in the stock market.
If the stock market has just topped and you expect the 4 year cycle low in the next 18 months, would that not make the cycle a right translated one as the last low was Mar 2009?
If so, why would you expect the market to make new marginal lows?
You could leverage yourself 3 times and never get a margin call. You just adjust your position on a daily basis, so that when the asset goes down you sell part of your position so that you remain 3 times leveraged. It’s exactly what AGQ does, or any other leveraged etf.
The only reason people get margin calls is because they don’t adjust the leverage when the asset goes down, so their leverage is increasing instead of remaining at the level they were before the asset went down.
You would be better off if you leveraged yourself 200% in silver futures contract and adjusted your position on a daily basis then if you were 100% exposed to AGQ.
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Great Charts Gary, thank you.
Those charts pretty well sum things up. Good job as usual.
AMoldyHamsammich,
You definitely lighten the mood. You and Shalom (Everything is Ok) Bernanke always crack me up 🙂
I actually did not have a problem with Hammy’s calls. It was more his arrogant “I know what I am doing but do you?” attitude.
8.9 earthquake in Japan followed by a tsunami. Tsunami watch for Guam, Taiwan, and Hawaii. Just want to make people aware.
“The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center in Hawaii said a tsunami warning was in effect for Japan, Russia, Marcus Island and the Northern Marianas. A tsunami watch has been issued for Guam, Taiwan, the Philippines, Indonesia and the U.S. state of Hawaii.”
Hi – I’m in Japan – Tokyo – the earthquake was just north of here in Sendai. Mag 8.8, hit twice. Many dead – swept away by tsunami – Sendai airport inundated – cars and houses floating down rivers – a gas plant blew so am sure all workers there died in the blast or were burned alive – trains have all stopped so folks are stranded everywhere – phones all down – email and text msging are up though. My family are fine here – I have our money and passports packed w/clothes and water – there were 2 events – each lasting 5 mins or more – so it was very long – I flew out of our brick apt as I ain’t gonna die here, not now – am afraid to sleep now – every little wiggle has me jumping out of my skin and ready to grab the bags and flee – we are very lucky as it could be worse – Tokyo is the epicenter of 4 tectonic plates, w/volcanic Mt. Fuji at the center. Anyways I misse the Kobe one by a few months, but this one was 180 times more powerful – I fear it’s not over yet. In the end, alls one has is one’s integrity and one’s family. So far so good, and am so sorry for those who died or are still stuck away from home.
finally a trend brake on silver
gold is holding on quite well
And to Paul’s point about tsunami’s and the tsunami warning in Hawaii, it’s no joke as the one that wiped out Hilo came from Chile I think it was – they are very powerful and can travel very far. And it’s the 2nd wave in the series that kills.
Gary, nice charts. About Bernanke, maybe he’s stupid, or maybe he’s in the pockets of GS and so on, but living out here in Asia for 30 yrs, near to China and N. Korea, part of me thinks that something else is going on, like national security. I don’t have anything to back that up with, just I have a hard time believing that so many ivy league execs are that stupid or that greedy. So I’m just saying I don’t know why they’re doing what they’re doing, but you’re right that the dollar will fall and commodities will rise. I did hear something about China and silver a few yrs back – maybe old news, maybe not.
Did you all know that gold was formed in a supernovae a few billion yrs ago? I think every element heavier than carbon came from supernovae explosions.
Did you know that Timbuktu is an actual place, in Africa, where gold from the south was traded for salt from the north, oz for oz?
These are last words in case I don’t see the morning. Had to leave my mark on your blog, Gary!
It’s not death that we humans fear, it’s the suffering just before.
Rumors of HAARP weapon used to trigger Japan earthquake/tsunami … silver getting shit stomped
http://www.atlanteanconspiracy.com/2011/03/japan-tsunami-caused-by-haarp.html
http://us.figu.org/portal/Knowledge/HAARPProject/tabid/110/Default.aspx
just looking at the footage.
unbelievable.
hang on there bill
If you believe in the long-term picture presented by Gary, then now is the time to be buying.
Yup, just bought 5000 oz silver spot.
almost all in at 34.43.
lets hope Gary’s crystal ball is working again
Euro is flirting with disaster
Guy,
Congrats on your buy – looks like a good one.
Didn’t think Gary’s crystal ball was broken in the first place 🙂
David K.
Yes…the Euro is making lower low and dollar making higher high.
But what makes you say its going to be a “disaster”?
david,
i hope you were right with your pick on the high 33’s yesterday.
still feeling the same way?
RA,
If the Euro shows weakness below 1.37 I think the odds are very high it will trade below 1.28. So that is my definition of disaster.
Let´s hope it just keeps flirting.
David K,
If the Euro blows up, then the dollar rises.
Is that necesarily bad for PM’s?
Weakness in Euro could drive PM’s too?
The dollar should be soaring right now, yet it’s struggling to remain positive.
I don’t think it will be long before the dead cat bounce is over and the dollar breaks through the November low. A slightly lower low by gold would set up the swing low we are looking for.
RA,
PMs could surely rise with the dollar. But I will not bet on it.
Euro debt problems, mid east crises and a massive Japan earthquake, have the dollar up a massive 0.07!
guy,
It really depends on gold. The support area for silver, as I see it, is from 32.90 to 33.70. I don´t want to see gold breaking 1390.
gold is holding on very nice IMO
It’s a waste of time to pick a number on the chart at this point. We just have to wait for the cycle low to form. The warning sign would come if gold bounces out of the cycle low then rolls over and moves below that pivot. That would form a pattern of lower lows and lower highs.
But to just arbitrarily pick a number and say if gold falls below this it means the party is over is meaningless. The emotional metals market can easily break technical chart levels.
The only number at this point that would carry that kind of significance is $1307.
That was the last daily cycle low.
Gold would have to drop below $1350 to even break the intermediate trend line.
Yep, my number is just a random number 🙂
Phew! I have taken on board all of Gary’s advice and I have now managed to sell all of my precious metals. Just sold all my silver. Hopefully I will be able to buy it all back at the top of this C-wave thingy.
By the way, the number has significance in the current context. If gold were to rally 20-25 points from here, then breaking 1390 would not mean much.
david,
please elaborate
Just 3 days ago most scoffed at TZ suggestion of up to a 10% hit in Silver. Well it’s now 7% off the highs and counting.
As gold hopefully going to swing, it’s sharp down days like this that often bring about bottoms. A week of consolidation and 7% drop is the perfect setup.
Looks like more pain in the immediate future. I better eat a big breakfast, something like a farm fresh Hammy,Egg&Cheese on a toasted English muffin.
Longish, broad ranging interview last night with Jim Sinclair – 35 year gold industry veteran – which discusses the action yesterday (violent moves happen around round numbers), trading gold (if you must trade, there are areas/triggers for trading), long term price targets (1600+), QE (it can’t stop), etc.
Much of what he suggests pretty directly supports many of Gary’s longer term views.
http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2011/3/11_Jim_Sinclair.html
Having trouble posting the URL- if interested, the interview is at King World News.
Those charts are going to TICK the BEANIE off
HHMMM, Been kind of quiet here this week from him and his solar and SOXX
🙂
Gordon,LOL!
I just made it to Pauls and BILS TSunami post , and turned on the news 🙁
They are calling for possible tsunami on U.S. Pacific coast (California) etc and showed Japan.
Sad enough as it is, and I would imagine even some of our guys on here could be affected (DG is California for ex)
Poly,
I guess you will get a chance to buy your lottery ticket today. Those APR SLV $40 should be close to your target of $0.20 this morning.
I heard a nucleur power plant on fire in Japan.My prayers go out to them. The videos of the tsunami in northern Japan are just heartwrenching.
At this point I would not be surprised if gold breaks through 1400 and closes just above it.
The miners should hold better this time.
James
A word on inflation – I went to grocery store yesterday to buy 1 large fugi apple (not organic) and some water for lunch. Price of 1 apple $1.20 – I put it back and had water for lunch. Living in Northern CA is expensive, but this is ridiculous. Cheap gas is $3.87 –
Don’t get lulled by this correction is metals. The hard stuff seems to hold up better than the miners. Maybe Gary can speak to that.
Japan earthquake -> potential repatriation of Yen -> negative for $USD? Fits into the grand scheme of impending 3yr cycle low as predicted by Gary?
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/yen-reverses-sharply-higher-after-quake-2011-03-11
ddn3f,
I was thinking the same thing, about 3 hours ago 🙂 It’s come back well since though.
Looking at the SLV MARch weeklies. The 34 seems like a falling off point for OI. I’d bet SLV will happen to close right under 34.
Bill,
i lives in Japan for 3years on a day like today I feel for m’y friends there. Good luck
My exit plan-silver closes under the 20 MA for 2 days, I’m selling most positions.
Silver’s trendline now broken, 10 has been violated, 20 rising up around 33.44 on /SI. I think that 20 MA must hold or else this C wave stuff is not correct.
DOC has an alternative scenario on the dollar, which could be the reason why things may not take off for a bit longer.
Five red daily candles on SLV ties the most we had over the past year, including the flash crash period.
silver and miners getting creamed again…this is not looking like a daily cycle correction anymore
Gold 1400 has fought off so many assaults, I wonder if it will give in…If silver cracks 34, Ill add, otherwise, sitting tight.
Considering the developments, USD has been pathetic.
I’m hanging on but it sure would have been nice to get off about three days ago and then get back on today. Of course hind sight is 20/20
On the contrary things are looking exactly like a daily cycle correction and people are now starting to make emotional decisions like selling into the bottom of a cycle correction instead of buying.
Silver will be down two days. Two days and everyone is starting to think it’s the end of the world.
Folks silver could go all the way back to $31 and all it would be is a test of the break out. Once the cycle bottom is in all losses could and probably would be recovered in 2-3 days.
Folks stay focused on the big picture here.
Despite everything that’s going on in the world the dollar can’t even stay positive. That alone should tell you something.
SIL made pin pointed 50% retracement of 20.74 to 29.34
Bought half a position in ES.
FWIW. The gap down volume on the 15min charts (GLD, SLV, AGQ, GPL, SLW, GDX, etc) is much lower than yesterday’s.
Well maybe we hit bottom for now.
Anybody adding here.
GDX is showing strength.
If we close down today I have a decent chance at a system buy! I won;t know how likely until later in the day but will post. Nice to get these a little more frequently. Stocks/gold bottom together?
Nice to see GDX positive already.
Gary
Thanks for the clarity
The big picture is that even after this downturn I am still up more in 30 days than the previous 365.
Gary, thanks for the reminder on keeping big picture in mind.
SIL bouncing off hard now
Think its good that Gary try to get the troops together because I see some panic here..I dont know why actually..A lot of people warned us that a cycle low correction will soon strike against us..
Gary, Poly and TZ warned us a week ago..This is why so few people will can add when the price go down..Panic..Some people will sell..
A think we are close to the bottom now in silver and gold..Bernanke is pissing his pants and will do anythink to prop the market up.
The dollar will soon fall back again..No reason to try and change the fundamental here..
Think 34,05 was the bottom in silver..Will soon be the swing we are looking for..
Actually I think the dollar will move down and under 77 today..
Take Care!
Thanks for weighing in Gary. Yes I agree with the thesis. And am working the plan. Just tough to weather the downdrafts.
The saying “Bulls climb the stairs and Bears jump out the window” is appropriate here.
GDXJ green
I’m not selling here Gary, I attempted to grab some SLW calls there at the open and that sucker ran away so hard I missed it.
I’m looking to top off, the 20 MA violation for 2 plus days would concern me and I would consider scaling back then. I don’t think that would happen. (Violation==daily close under followed by the next day taking out the prior days low)
I know lines on charts get broken all the time, but… DX backtested broken the 11/10 & 2/11 support trendline yesterday and today. Still below. GC backtested 12/10 & 1/11 broken resistance trendline yesterday. Looking for possible kiss goodbye on both.
No panic here. 🙂
Thank you Gary! Picked up some more
sil, svm
I also missed the oppty to add on a few names, they moved higher immediately. Sitting with what I have for now.
Jumped in with the rest of the dry powder. Bought some exk may calls at 10. Good luck everyone
Wow!
If only I knew how deep a correction….
Shalom!
Actually I dont like the move in gold or silver but if we want to see higher price we must be cool..
Gary told us so many times that this will be hard..Everyone will not be on the boat the whole trip..
Now I understand why..:-)
The dollar is dooomed..We are all doomed..
/Faber
If the miners continue to show relative strength today, it validates the idea this is just another typical pullback with each vehicle taking it’s turn correcting.
Bill,
Thanks for posting. Glad you and your family are okay, but so sorry for those who didn’t make it.
Are you planning to leave the country any time soon? Good luck to you!
It’s strange and ironic that the “Pacific Ring of Fire” has several areas of high density populations. California and Japan come to mind, but there’s also the Philippines and Indonesia. The whole area is a time bomb that will go off again and again…
Bought 100 April $38’s calls @ $0.44. Lottery play.
Nice pickup this morning, traderlady!
I think you got my stock, so if you’ll kindly just journal it over to my accounts and I’ll remit funds immediately. 🙂
Pima
The pic you got is really funny..Lol!
The many faces of Bernanke!
Yeah but the pic you got Shalom must be from 2006 or something?
Before this mess!? He looks happy…..
Lol
Yeah, nobody was asking questions back then. 🙂
SLW fans.
34 EMA has been fairly solid support.
SLW 34
Dollar putting in its swing high?
I managed to snag some HZU at the low of day … that’s my fill at 29.51 … unfortunately it was only a partial fill I had to buy the rest at market 🙂
The dollar can’t form a swing today. But it did make a slightly higher high this morning. If it ends the day lower it will be set up to form the swing on Monday with any weakness at all.
I’m surprised to find my accounts barely in the red today considering how silver is acting. Still, I had some pretty hairy negative marks this morning (daily).
But the bigger picture is even at the worst levels on the open, I was still up roughly 30% on this round over the last couple months.
My expectation was for the dollar rally to last 3-5 days. Today is day 4.
Prayers to all of those in the path of misfortune.
Guess the Yen gets the boost out of this becasue they will have so much rebuilding.
Thank you Gary,
I did not know the dollar made a higher high.
Everything really is OK, I’m actually up on the day without even getting to add this morning. 🙂
Just a hunch, but I think we made bottom this morning.
Nice to see spot gold climbing the wall of worry.
Nice price action in the Euro from the lows.
We have to pity anybody that got suckered into selling on the open this morning.
One thing the dollar does have going for it is that large specs are long at near record levels in the ausse, loonie, and euro vs the dollar at least for the past couple of years. This usually leads to a severe correction to wash these specs out. The last time spec longs were this long the euro, the euro dropped 14 cents over the next few months.
Partial fill on buying some AGQ this morning.
Imagine doing this sh!t alone
: O
I got good dips in GPL, SLW, SVM this morning, but had to be quick. Trying to add to my SLW calls ran away from me too fast.
SIL, finally green
End of day we will see nice big large green candle sticks
The lows of the day (so far) hit the following retracement percentages (of move up from late Jan low):
GDX – 62
GDXJ – 62
SIL – 50
SLW – about 45
SVM – close to 50
SB,
I hope you bought some SVM this morning. The low was 12.50!
Ploy,
I like your hunch. I felt the same thing (but was too superstitious to say anything about it… oops! )
pima,
I know, but unfortunately I missed it. I was on the phone trying to wrap things up before the open but it went 2-3 minutes over. Too late!
I’m still scoping to add though, so thanks for those fib levels. they seem as good a place as any, so will buy weakness if we get it, or pay these prices if things meander at these levels into next week.
Interesting day in the markets. Would love to watch it, but my wife’s water just broke and we are getting ready for a baby to come out!
Have a great weekend all!
Dollar just cracked below 77…good stuff
Congrats on the baby Romeo!
Good luck!!
steel price going up, cause japan..
Congratulations Romeo.
Have a nice weekend too!
James
I did worse than alone, I did with a broker
I’m surprised I’m alive
Romeo,
Congrats!
My wife and I had our first baby one month ago. Best experience in life!
Congrats Romeo, been there done that many times. 🙂
Bought 2K GPL, some SLW calls
Romeo,
Congrats on the new baby, a new life ahead. That puts things in perspective. Let’s us know how things go and best wishes for an easy time.
Bill, our hearts and prayers are with you and yours and all those affected. We look forward to hearing from you again.
Congrats Romeo … I have 3 kids (umm adults!) … lots of good years ahead of you.
By him/her some silver/gold coins.
By the time their ready for college 1 gold coin outta do it 🙂
In those iffy moments, I go back and read Gary’s postings and know that all is as planned.
….at ease:
In those iffy moments, I just look at dollar charts and realize I don’t have another good option.
Romeo, The best to you,wife and baby:=)
Congrats to you and your wife, RB!!
Here’s to a healthy happy baby!
And congrats to you and your wife too, David K. Enjoy!
To the April call buyers, isn’t that timeframe a little too tight?
CMT…yeah that too LOL.
AGQ on the verge of closing the gap.
Nice to see the miners responded well.
Dollar dropping like a sack of Sh1t!
Gary: Thanks. Without your confidence and analysis I’d have cut back some this morning had I been on my own. As a result of your work I didn’t sell a share. I am relatively full up at this point so did not add but may add a little on the swing low being set. about 1/2 my net worth in silver is enough for right now, but as I get more room I may push it farther.
>We have to pity anybody that got suckered into selling on the open this morning
Screw ’em. It they want dollars that bad they can have them. Here you go.. thanks for the silver!
Dollar just now bounced off a rising trendline.
DG,
Thanks for the book. I’m going get into it this weekend.
Yesterday I wasn’t sure about buying, today I’m feeling much more positive.
Sold a lot on Monday, went back to 100% allocation about an hour ago.
The USD is dropping, the PM complex is looking strong, fingers crossed for everyone!
Only 6 weeks into an intermediate cycle and 28 days into a daily cycle are is not the time to be selling. It’s the time to be buying hand over fist.
These C-wave finales don’t come around very often. The last one was 3 years ago.
One can’t let this kind of opportunity pass them by because it may be another three years before the next one.
Folks, do what ever you have to do to shut down your emotions so you can stay focused on the big picture.
Poly ,
is today a “deal” to you?
Mr m
Maybe they want them to expire and just paying for the insurance
at noon, in europe, i was pushing the BUY button while pissing my pants.
and thx to Gary it was a great feeling.
oa9200,
I’m really just recycling Gary’s info, to fit my style. 🙂 So yes, for me its a deal and I think smart money is buying, not panicking. I’ve done all the buying I can safely handle.
Gary’s post right above this is just perfect. He has been been so spot on down to the daily wiggles, it’s not even funny!
Congrats to those who stepped in at the open today. Nice trading.
Close em now! If we close now I get a buy. Those of you who have been around a while know how good they have been. I will buy $300k or so worth of SPY’s if we get it. I am running out of cash with all this silver clogging up my account (j/k—happy to have it). Look for a post at 3:50 if the Dow is down modestly. An up day or big down day aborts it.
Thanks to Gary pissing your pants was a great feeling?
okie dokie
Well good news is that I slept through the horrible open but bad news is I still wanted to add to my AGQ/HZU. Shall I wait or just throw the rest of my dry powder in now?
Gary,
Do you think the reversal in silver and many of the miners is a sign that perhaps we hit the daily cycle low this morning?
Gary,
“DG,
Thanks for the book. I’m going get into it this weekend.”
What’s the name of the book, if I’m not being too nosey?
I bought some SLW March 41’s earlier. :O
Nothing crazy but will see how they do.
ryan,
if you missed it i think you’d better wait for gary to call the swing IMO
i have a bit left for that occasion too
Steven,
I have no idea. But I do know that gold is now 29 days into it’s daily cycle (possibly day 1 if yesterday was the bottom). I know it tagged the 20 DMA yesterday. That combination is enough to go ahead and swing the bat even if it doesn’t turn out to be the exact bottom.
Bede,
“Freedom From Stress”
Not that I have much any more. Most of my stress is limited to how far the fall is going to be if I “come off” rock climbing.
I’m not sure that’s the kind of stress that kills though… well unless one hits the ground at terminal velocity 🙂
Gary,
If today turns out to be the bottom I’m changing my religion to whichever one has you as god!
Oh, and as many burritos you can eat. I’m actually an investor in a burrito company so I’ll send you some when the C wave is over and you have a big appetite!
SB said: “If the miners continue to show relative strength today, it validates the idea this is just another typical pullback with each vehicle taking it’s turn correcting.”
That’s my take, too.
We could have got ’em a little cheaper today, but you had to be quick!
The decline in SLW halted on the quick retest of the puke-out lows from Thursday 2/24.
Gary,
Was that response about swinging the bat for me? Or should I wait for you to call the swing as Guy suggests?
I thought haveing a wife around would equal haveing a stress reliever
Just the opposite
Ryan,
You can wait or swing, it’s up to you.
It’s late enough in the daily cycle that if that wasn’t the low it’s very close time wise. What are the odds you will catch the exact bottom even if it’s still ahead of us?
Virtually zero.
For me a touch of the 20 DMA yesterday represented value so I bought and I didn’t worry if it was the exact bottom. It was close enough.
Decide if you more worried about catching the exact bottom or can you be satisfied with close enough?
Hammy better decide when he’s gonna get back in. The G-train is leaving the station! 🙂
Winning..
“I thought haveing a wife around would equal haveing a stress reliever
Just the opposite”
What planet are you from. LMAO.
OK, kids if you want to play dirty. I know a nurse who can tell poop stories all day long, but her son’s ceruminosis totally grosses her out.
the market is trying hard to shake investors off the silver tree…
my feet were dangling this morning but i held on strong! >:O
Added more SLW. Not easy!
Swing Low in gold ?
“The G-train is leaving the station!”
I would say she already left!
Hammy the hero tried to trade around the swing and will now chase to rebuild his 44x leveraged position.
This is very much cycle bottom explosion behavior, IMO.
Thanks Gary, I should of just pressed the button when you said swing the bat because look at it leave the station now lol. Well, at least I’m glad I added with you yesterday.
Dollar just broke that short-term rising trendline noted earlier.
Bede: Re my book: I have been keeping my professional life (author/public speaker) off the blog. Not sure why to tell you the truth, but am—for now—more comfortable that way so sorry, the book will need to stay a secret. It deals with how to master your thoughts and emotions (very useful for a trader!) and I sent it to Gary as a “thank you.” I train Special Forces troops, NASA test pilots, SF Police Academy, Navy, corporate executives, etc.
Holy shi$e!
I feel like I’m on the tower of terror at Disneyland . . .
(I too slept through all of this morning’s tragedies, blessings, and excitement.)
watching silver, after this mornings buy, feels like having good s*x. and that fot only 200$ a year, quite a bargain.
I picked up Leal Life by Dr. Phil McGraw for $2 at Odd Lots. Preparing for the 7 Most Challenging Days of Your Life. Anyone read any of DPs books? Let’s see?
The most challenging 3 months of my life may have been when the unexpected USD rally stretched this gold c-wave grand finally. What caused it again? Euro nation soverign debt? Lag in production dlayed oil price increases?
“I train Special Forces troops, NASA test pilots, SF Police Academy, Navy, corporate executives, etc.”-DG
Train them to do what? You can’t just come here and tell part of the story…it ain’t fair.
Train ’em to buy silver!
Nipponese Insurers Payout = Yen Carry Unwind = Stegthening Yen
Trains them to control themselves as it’s the uncontrollable who are attracted to such heroic professions!
DG,
I with SB, I want to know too! You’re not the one that’s training them to explode goats with a stare are you?!
“explode goats with a stare are you?!”
ROFL
SB: To master the instinctive reactive process. When the lymbic system part of your brain kicks in you do stupid things (like sell in a panic or curse out your mother-in-law). While an automatic response we can train ourselves to overcome the normal flood of chemicals. That’s what martial artists train to do. You slap one in the face and their neural response is actually calm—not passive, just not out of control. If they decide to take you out you are dead, but it is a conscious choice not a “I can;t stand it” kind of response. This is a learnable skill and we have trained over 20,000 people the past 15 years.
I just hope DG doesn’t start getting into Gary’s head and “fix” something that isn’t broken. 🙂
Very bad news for the guy in that boat….
http://www.cnn.com/video/#/video/world/2011/03/11/vo.whirlpool.earthquake.nhk?hpt=C2
errr, how many times now since the bull market started have you said it’s deja vu and the stock market top is in?
Aaron & Fubsy cooter,
Great posts from yesterday, in the heat of it. Way to stay cool and calm, along with Gary.
Fubsy,
Enough of a bottom for you to “top off”?
Beanie,
Just this once. I was actually telling the bears to wait last summer because I wasn’t convinced the bull was finished.
NASA has test pilots? Guess they used to land the shuttle.
Military training Terrorizes you. Gets you ready to think on your feet, etc. Retire?
One of my instructors had a million stories, about all he was good for. When he was fireman, they ran through burning magnesium. They had to have fire hoses spraying on them to keep from incinerating.
What would really scare me is climbing a 60 fool ladder.
Before you get too excited Beano, take a look at the charts. First day up on SOX, and it can only manage .5% while everybody else is scoring left and right with metals.
Seriously, peeking in on the first measely day up after a thorough beating doesn’t bolster your case, IMO.
At this point I would say the odds are very high gold’s daily cycle has bottomed.
We should see a weak bounce in stocks over the next few days as commodities start to spike. But it won’t be long before surging inflation causes the stock market to roll over and make another lower low.
beanie,
You are confusing expectations of intermediate tops with a final bull market top. back in Jan I was just expecting an intermediate top.
Now I’m saying there’s a good chance the cyclical bull has topped. It seems pretty clear the intermediate cycle has topped. Now we just have to see if the decline breaks below the November low.
If that happens the odds skyrocket that the cyclical bull is finished.
My apologies… I must’ve been responding to ghost writings all this time.
I therefore must get my eyes checked by the fabulous Optometrist.
See ya next week….as the equities market make the bears scream some more.
Beanie,
Nobody is perfect, but I recall Gary picking big runs in equities, especially the low out of the Summer to new cyclical bull market high’s.
But this isn’t about the specific calls, your history of trolling these types of sights and going against the grain is legendary. In fact going as far back as 2007/08 you’ve been hitting the site, guess you’re Gary’s oldest fan 🙂
Beanie,
If you would take the time to learn cycles analysis you wouldn’t get caught in bear markets.
You would know the seriousness of breaking below the Feb. 24th low.
Maybe you should take the blinders off so you can keep your profits this time.
Guys, Beenie is right. I’m on his team, forget this ridiculous fear trade. The global economy is poised for an explosion of growth. We will see DOW 20K within 3 months. Tech stocks will be bought by homeless people and your great grandmothers. Doom and gloomers will be trying to sell their worthless silver to any and all takers under 5 bucks a share.
GB, I don’t see your book in digital reader format. Will it be?
Very nice action today. Wish I would have added more:)
we’ll be buying tech stocks when they are bottomed out with our gold winnings.
DG,
Are you familiar with the work of Ari Kiev? His book Masterring Trading Stress was an excellent read for me. Do you train traders as well?
DG, I’m fascinated myself and want to know more:)!
DG, Im interested. Is there a way to order your book on the kindle/amazon?
Winnie, Beanie, and Cecil?
To save you the cost and agony of a black belt, I just meditate. Instead of blowing up at my in-laws, I pretend I am putting a run to their head and pulling the trigger; then of cource, there are consequences. Not worth it.
Waht are all the triggers/signs we’re waiting for here?
Poly clown – stop bashing Hammy – as Hammies NAV is at new all time highs – despite gold and silver and crude still ways of their highs.
Up over 743% as of now since October 2010, when I started recording my NAV.
Besides being in physical since almost a decade. Still own phyisical silver I bought below $7.
So do you think i care a second about your (or others) continued hatred here?
BTW i report my NAV almost each day in my blog – do you – or the other bashers here???
Call me gloating … call me this, call me that … i report facts, I report sometimes when i exit, or when i reenter … do you think I care what you think about me?
Trading is not about bashing other poeple – but about trading and learning from those who have a proven record in being profitable.
Either shortterm or mediumterm or longterm.
Trading is about making money – and having ones eyes on the charts.
Those which have time to bash others – are usually worthless crap just filling space.
BTW I like what Gary offers in his protected area – but the hatred presented in this blog – is beyond what I have seen before.
Just the Yahoo boards are worse.
And calling Kitco a site with penny dealers just confirms that thsi site is just about bashing and a few glory insiders.
Same as was with gold-eagle.
That board is dead as of now.
Due to the folks posting here – intolerant like here.
Nuf said – of again.
Mr. M, basically silver still below $40 to make it simple.
And be sure I won’t come back here again.
Just that this had to be said.
Hamster, I’d like to learn more about how you trade.
Veronica:
Is there any way you can change your name back to vuvvy? I keep picturing you sitting there infront of your computer in drag. NTTAWWT… And now that everyone is using pics of Bernanke the image in my mind has morphed into one of Ben in drag.
🙂
Hammy,
I actually like all of your analysis. I was disheartened when you shut your blog off to the public. Is there anyway I would be able to procure an invite? Thank you,
-RTS
One more thing about retail investors.. There’s just no way the top in the market is anywhere near. Look at how reactive people are. Every negative headline they see, it’s considered doomsday. They’re a truck of emotional wreckage. Some people will never get over the devastation of 2008. Some never will. Many are still afraid to come back, and they haven’t…yet. But when they do, there’s no stopping this equities market.
Precious metals doing nicely. Lucky for them they actually pulled back. I was hoping they do the parabola to $50 silver and get it over with.
You can contact Glenbridge Publishing via their website or at (800) 986-4135. It’s a little cheaper there than at Amazon. It is not available on Kindle yet though ought to be sometime this year. “Freedom from Stress” by David Gamow
Beanie, I call that volumeless trading. The morning ramp to keep thing going.
Jennifer, I am LMAO! I most certainly am no drag queen:):)The last thing I need is another E-mail address/password; I think my daughter changed the user name to discourage me from using it but I don’t have a gmail account of my own.
have you all noticed that when silver goes up 3%, the miners go up maybe 2.5%
when silver goes down 3%, the miners go down 6%
pretty shitty deal for miners..
There is only 7 left on Amazon.
Should be interesting, having been around type As all my life (military brat/spouse). I do believe your technique as they have to perform daily and on with a constant alert status mindset.
Hammy, MLMT, and others: The rejection you both got is not about winning and losing. It is not about your ideas and predictions. It is about being arrogant and obnoxious. I don’t really care whether you are up 10% or 1,000%. Show respect, don’t brag, don’t prey on people’s emotions when things are going against them, and you—and anyone else—is most welcome here. I love this blog. There are lots of smart people with different specialties and perspectives, and it is generally very civil. If you are getting grief maybe it’s you. Just a thought. It’s conceivable, anyway.
meant to say your techniques beneficial…
Beanie,
Bull markets end when something fundamental breaks. Surging inflation will break this bull.
Surging inflation has already broken most emerging markets. and in today’s high unemployment environment I suspect surging food and energy prices have already broken the US economy.
Now Ben is going to make it much much worse by trying to prop everything up the same as he did in 08.
It will just spike inflation even higher guaranteeing the collapse will be much worse than it had to be.
Like I said you could do yourself a huge favor by learning cycles analysis so you don’t ride the next bear all the way down.
@ Jennifer: LOVE it!
I can see the film trailer, Ben’s biography, after the jig is up . . . Probably putting together his wardrobe team now.
DG, finally a face behind the name:) Just checked out your profile/website at LinkedIn.Impressive!
Hammy, MLMT, and others: in other words it’s none of your gd business.
Hamster,
I agree with what DG said. I was one of the people who responded to your post because I thought it was about revenge. Don’t know if someone made fun of your previous post when you said you were expecting a short term top, and therefore you felt the need to come back and rub it on everyone’s face…
Why is it so difficult for Hammy to understand that we’re trading different time frames? He states gold had a sharp decline, while people here see it’s just 1.5% off all time highs that were recently made.
Amazing, and then suggests we have too much free time while he’s flat now, running his own site, AND and has the time to comment here even though he said he never would. It seems to be a pattern that those who “dump” SMT still feel compelled to come back. lol
And he forgot to tell us when he’s buying gold again. 🙂
Swing lows in gold and silver should be easily attainable now, and my system will go back to a buy in 1440’s.Gary’s promised rocketship is getting fired up:)
It’s not my style, or even in my comfort zone to trade 40x leverage for a few slivers of profit per contract, especially when I believe a much larger move is on the horizon.
And the downside to leverage is that it’s harder to stay in when pullbacks occur.
Gary, I guess you are more bullish on the USD than I am. I think we are going to get hyperinflation, not just high inflation, and in a hyperinflation (Weimar, Argentina, Israel, Brazil) all assets go way up in nominal dollars, includng stocks. PMs will do better than stocks, of course.
High inflation squeezes profit margins and knocks stocks down, but hyperinflation is a whole ‘nother world.
Hammy, it’s not what you say … it’s how you say it … no one wants to be treated like a child even if they are. Tone down your delivery … even your tone today is extremely self aggrandizing.
Get over yourself … please!
Now having said that … I could care less … if you feel like helping us make money I’ll still listen 🙂
I’m not sure why the bears are always telling the bulls they’re wrong and that they know nothing. They said the same back in 1970’s…that’s it’s all over..that inflation/deflation/deficit or whatnot is gonna wreck havoc and that the markets are finished. They said that the fundamentals are breaking back in early 1980’s, and soon the market took off regardless. They said the same in the early 1990’s, and soon thereafter the market took off. I would give the bears credit being absolutely right, in 2008. But that’s just 1.5 years in so many many years. It’s probably not a good idea to push it, when stats just don’t favor it.
The Hammy makes an appearance! This guy with the 3rd person stuff is priceless. What joke.
You tried the same crap on Turd’s blog and embarrassed yourself there too. You went back and deleted all your gloating posts after the fact.
Metalsking, Cyclist and the other gurus were all pimping those Canadian natural gas pink sheets to the groupies there who should have been going long mining stocks last summer. I was there and saw it live. The majority of the worthless traders there got good people to take horrible NG trades vs. buying some metals plays at the launch of an epic run last summer/fall. Like it or not, that’s what happened almost all year last year.
Bill-
I just read your comments. I liked your quote “In the end, alls one has is one’s integrity and one’s family.” Good luck over there. It sounds horrific.
DG-
I like what you had to say.
Vuvveronica,
Maybe you could make this your avatar: http://i161.photobucket.com/albums/t211/tt24_7/ifBernankewasindrag.jpg
Looks like we got our swing this morning with Gold breaking above the high from yesterday. My trades were triggered and increased positions by appx 5%. My last add will be on a break of the high in Gold which should take me to apx 95% invested if the daily bottom is indeed in place.
Otherwise I will add a bit on the next swing low.
Fubsy
Thank you, Gary. It is so much easier dealing with these down drafts when you are screaming buy and I am scared that I might have to sell.
Hope you have a great weekend.
If anyone is interested in seeing who the heck this DG guy is:
http://clarityseminars.com/
Beanie, you are on the wrong blog. I doubt anybody here is short much, if at all.
You probably took Gary’s bet, just let it play out, you’ll be $500 richer on top of your winnings,, that woul ppeak louder than posts.
However, I sense fear in you, by your constant protestations and exhortations.
What events could influence silver/gold prices over the weekend leading to Monday open?
Gold has to better $1431.40 to form a swing low. But I’m fairly confident the cycle bottom is in and probably the cycle top for the dollar.
>I think we are going to get hyperinflation, not just high inflation, and in a hyperinflation (Weimar, Argentina, Israel, Brazil) all assets go way up in nominal dollars, includng stocks.
While I don’t agree with the extreme MMT nonsense that the USD can never hyperinflate, (it could happen at anytime) it will take some effort from Ben. The majority still think of things in terms of how many dollars, not in terms of value and most US citizens have debt that must be paid in dollars as well as their taxes, creating demand, besides the USD is spread over the entire world, not just a small area like Zimbabwe.
As well there is the extreme swings of sentiment that are always in the market.
I think Gary’s view that we will have another (several?) cycle of equities down and dollar up make sense if you consider how hard it is to hyperinflate the dollar combined with the realties of sentiment/cycles.
GoldHam,
I think you’re confusing kidding–okay maybe a little beyond kidding–with hatred. I don’t believe those who were spoofing on your posts actually hate you. Ridicule yes, hatred, I don’t think so.
(‘course, I don’t know them, so can’t say for sure, but I try to give people the benefit of the doubt, especially here on the web where it’s impossible to tell nuance.)
Most readers of this blog appreciate posts that have a different point of view. But sometimes someone comes on here to express a different point of view without anything to back it up, and it’s those posts that are generally not tolerated very well and often subject to ridicule. If you have analysis to back up your calls, that is usually very much appreciated.
its Friday….time for a musical interlude..
“People all over the world (everybody)
Join hands (join)
Join the G train, G train
People all over the world (all the world, now)
Join hands (love ride)
Join the G train (love ride), love train
The next stop that we make will be soon
Tell all the folks Like TK , and Hammy, too
Don’t you know that it’s time to get on board
And let this train keep on riding, riding on through
Well, well…
People all over the world (Join in, ride this train)
Join in (Ride this train, y’all)
Join the G train (Come on, train), G train
All of you brothers over in kitco
Tell all the folks like MLMT, and Beanie, too
Please don’t miss this train at the station
‘Cause if you miss it, I feel sorry, sorry for you”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kQvmCzILBfE
have a great weekend everyone
If the government doesn’t get the debt spiral under control we will have no choice but to hyperinflate as a last resort to buy a few more months or year.
The problem is that we have kicked the can down the road for so long that the consequences of fixing the debt spiral would require the US to default.
If that were to happen the globe would face a deflationary depression many times worse than the 30’s.
So the question is will we ever have the will power to unleash that kind of catastrophe or will we just keep kicking the can down the road until we break the currency?
So far it looks like kicking the can is the only option the US is willing to consider.
Very impressive, DG. Thanks for sharing the book title and your personal details.
Hyperinflation is not Ben’s choice to make (sorry, SB). It is our creditor’s choice, and can happen in a few weeks. Hyperinflation is a loss of confidence in the currency.
http://gonzalolira.blogspot.com/2010/08/how-hyperinflation-will-happen.html
I don’t disagree Techperson, I just think it is more probable that the USD lives in it’s current (sickly) state longer than most expect, while at the same time it is possible it could die at any moment.
Nice turnaround action today. If I hadn’t already loaded up and topped off the accounts yesterday at 1405ish it would have been nice to add more at the open.
And wow, GPL up 17% from the opening price.
Movax2, we agree. It stays sick until it suddenly dies, sooner or later.
Just imagine if China has been the underlying bid in the gold market since the 2001 bottom and they announce that the Yuan will now be backed by gold.They would instantly be the world’s reserve currency and I imagine lotsa dollars would come pouring back to us.It wouldn’t even have to be a loss of confidence in the USD to cause hyperinflation.Then again,what do I know about currencies? not much 🙂 but I can’t imagine that would be a good thing.
Dang. I was looking at GLD. I guess I should have used Gold itself. The top in GLD was 138.50. We past that. Oh well. If we go lower without the swing low I’ll add on the next swing low and call it good.
DG,
Are you familiar with “The Power of Now,” by Eckhart Tolle?
Once I “got” what he was saying it really changed my perspective.
Thanks DG!
Impressive DG! Nice sharing.
Catbird: Yep. Great book. Changing one’s attitudes on a deep level can change an entire life. Dr. Tharp works with traders in just this way and has turned 20% a year guys into 150% a year guys without them learning any new trading skills. We have all sorts of attitudes we are not aware of that undermine us. Every truly great pro athlete knows this. Making a conscious effort to eliminate those conflicting attitudes can make an absolutely huge difference in trading, relationships, business, and everything else.
On a trading note: Someone (Don’t remember who) posted last week that sugar looked good. I posted that it had just shown up on my short screen right then. It did rally for a day but then tanked 10% the next three days. I respect the people on this blog and it is sometimes makes it hard for me to stick to my own ways. I got the same kind of sell on SLV at 35.50 last week. Given my trying to emulate Gary’s approach I did nothing, and maybe it was right to do nothing. I am still trying to figure out how to integrate what he does with what I do.
And, damn, the SPX is rallying! I want that down close to get that buy signal. Wouldn’t mind making some thousands on a trade to add to silver as we go higher. Oh well.
I was worried I was too heavy in GLD and not enough silver… looking good 🙂
DG, I ordered your book from amazon. Look forward to reading it, will take it with me on my 6 week trip (ahhh) coming while the C crest occurrs. Hope, I can keep my eyes in the book and off the screen. 🙂
With gold´s rally to 1424 today, according to my analysis breaking 1390 is no longer a problem.
Danger zone would be 1370.
Just learned that Martin Armstrong was released from prison this week. Can’t get much better than that!
The dollar has, in just half a day, given back just about all of its 4 day gains from the cycle low. Not much talk about it today, but that is truely impressive, especially in lights of “the news”.
Gary
If I could come up with some money next week, would it be Ok to buy into the strength ?
at ease: Enjoy! Hope you are going someplace great. And we probably have passed the danger zone in the PM’s so no need to look. Maybe AGQ will be 275 when you get back!
Im not sure who trades oil here, but the easiest trade in the univerese seems to be playing WTIC versus brent. WTIC is again widening its range, meaning oil under 100 for a meaningful amount of time is unlikely, unless of course brent starts pulling back hard to close the gap.
Gary,
You should take credit for this call. It was amazing, almost down to the penny.
Was suppose to be a relaxing trip, but now I am worried about being away form the screen when the trigger has to be pulled. I don’t leave until mid April, (thankful I fly on Saturdays both ways), so at least I know I should have access to puter except for two weeks. So I really hope it doesn’t happen at that time. My only worry, now that I see things back up in the accounts.
Because I’m so negative on the dollar, I look for smart people on the other side of the trade to understand their thinking. Steve Sjuggerud is a smart guy, and wrote this today in DailyWealth:
Time to Bet on a RISING U.S. Dollar?
By Dr. Steve Sjuggerud
Friday, March 11, 2011
You hear it over and over…
“Because of all the debts and the deficits, the dollar is about to crash.”
Yes, the debts and deficits will come home to roost in the long run…
But is the dollar going to crash right now? Right this second? Should you bet on it crashing tomorrow?
I say no… The dollar looks poised for a three-month rally, as I’ll show you today.
Let’s start with the most basic question first. When people talk about the dollar crashing, what do they mean?
Usually, they mean a trip to Europe will cost you a fortune, as an example… They mean a dollar won’t buy you much outside the U.S.
By that standard, the dollar has already crashed… Goods in Europe are already 30% more expensive than the U.S. So the euro is expensive relative to the dollar. (Meanwhile, European countries have big debts and deficits, too.)
Longtime DailyWealth readers know we size up just about every investment opportunity on three factors. We look for things that are 1) cheap, 2) hated, and 3) in an uptrend.
Let’s take a look…
The dollar is cheap… as I described above. The euro is expensive. You’re reaching the point where Europeans can buy stuff from the States, ship it home, and sell it for a profit. This situation can’t last forever.
The dollar is hated… Currency traders have bigger bets against the dollar than at any time since late 2009 – the last time the dollar bottomed and kicked off a massive rally. And our friends at SentimenTrader say investor sentiment on the U.S. dollar is more bearish than on any other commodity… a strong contrarian sign. Sentiment signals usually are good for about three months.
The uptrend? It’s not here yet, but it’s close… The dollar has strengthened this month. The euro topped out on March 4 at $1.40, and it’s already down to $1.38. Our True Wealth Systems computers tell us the dollar only needs to rise 1.5% for it to be in an uptrend – in “buy” mode.
If the U.S. stays on its path of ever-increasing debts, the dollar will surely be the casualty.
But with history as our guide, the dollar has a chance to have a three-month rally… particularly once we see a real uptrend kick in. Then we’ll have all three factors in “buy” mode.
If you’re planning on betting against the dollar today, I urge you to be careful…
The dollar is cheap, it’s more hated than it’s been in years (the last time it was this hated, it started a major rally), and it might be starting a new uptrend now.
These are the conditions for a “buy,” not a “sell.”
While you may want to bet against the dollar, I think you’d be better off doing nothing today…
Too many people are already betting against the dollar right now, and many of those are new bets. The typical outcome in this situation is a somewhat violent move upward that knocks those new speculators out of the trade.
In short, if you want to bet against the dollar, consider waiting instead… You may get a much better opportunity in a couple months.
—————
So his 1.5% from yesterday’s close would be 78.44. Now I’m going to see if that makes sense as a stop on my dollar short, at first using the fractal charts. Anyone else see the signficance in 78.44?
aaron: I am short OIL right now (did it at 28.04). Are you saying a widening spread between WTIC and Brent is bullish? The whole universe is wildly bullish on oil so I had planned to hold the short for a while after nailing the high…? The $ drop is also supportive of higher oil but not today 🙂
Does the dollar need to close below 74.84 for it to have a daily swing high or does it already count because it has passed below that?
Techperson: Sjug is not a short -term trader, and he’d be the first to admit it. His calls are very good, but what he has said does not disagree with a 4-6 week spanking for the dollar. He is right that sentimentrader shows public bearishness, but the COT reports are bullish for the dollar, but not remarkably so. If we are to make a 3 year cycle low we should get overwhelming bearishness at that bottom so having moderate bearishness now makes sense to me. Another leg down will spike the bearishness just in time for the C-wave to finish.
It can’t be a swing high because it already traded above yesterday’s high.
Thanks AVANN
DG, historically the difference between Brent and WTIC has been 5-6 dollars. The fact that Brent was running up WAY before WTIC even budged was a telling sign, and it continues to lead the way. This gap is unnatural, and thats why this current (large) gap is unsustainable. People are trading the news on oil, when in reality Brent has been leading the way before Libya was even mentioned in the news. You might be right about short term moves (I know your technical analysis is legit), but unless Brent starts pulling back, WTIC is destined to move higher regardless of Libya or Suadi.
DG – Thanks. Bought your book earlier today.
Thanks aaron. How can you tell that WTIC will go up rather than Brent going down to close the large and unusual gap? Does Brent tend to lead like the miners lead the metals?
SLV SLW a buy here to add to the pile or wait till Monday? (I didn’t wake up early enough today.. Pacific time zone)
Thats the million dollar question 🙂
Many have been playing the spread, yet everyone seems to have an opinion on why or how this is to be explained.
My personal take is that the US controlled WTIC is a lot more ‘controlled’ for a lack of a better word, while our gasoline prices mimic the moves of Brent. Brent seems to be setting the pace, from the looks of it, and looking at the movements, it seems like WTIC is the one thats following Brent instead of vice versa.
Currently the spread is 13 dollars or so, I remember that right before Libya broke out, it had gotten as high 18, which is why WTIC seems to be playing catch up in my opinion, but you are right, Brent could crash down over night, yet, now, thanks to Libya it seems rather unlikely, since Brent is a hostage to Libya a lot more than WTIC is.
DG, I just bought your book. I look forward to the read at the beach in FL. lol
I think this news may spur the interest of some pension funds…
Silver Wheaton CEO, Peter Barnes, says silver prices, which are expected to continue rising over the next few years mean the company sees the possibility of paying out as much as half its cash flow each year in dividends
Author: Julie Gordon (Reuters)
Posted: Friday , 11 Mar 2011
I think there is still a decent chance that the S&P will test these lows once again, maybe on Tuesday because of FOMC release. I plan to add the other half of my ES position if we test the lows, otherwise I will just ride with half a position.
I will try to ride it to 1400.
SLV SLW a buy here to add to the pile or wait till Monday?
18 minutes to close.
dg,
do you get the buy signal for SPY today?
Hey
This C.O.T. report doesnt come out until after the MKT close on Fridays I thought?? I got it early? It looks good ! 🙂
http://snalaska.net/cot/current/charts/GC.png
Took me an hour to catch up on all the posts today..wow! great stuff too.
DG
2 seminars and now 1000 book sales this week!!…You owe it to the community to put all that fresh money in silver 😉
Gary
Very nice call , I too believe the 20sma was it. ( The dollar ,I’m not quite sure, but the IT Low of Jan had metals UP , and the Dollar up together at first).
Many bullish engulfings on the daily charts (reversals) if anyone cares. SLW EXK GPL CDE etc
oa92: No. I can only get buy signals on a down day for the Dow. It’s designed to pick off bottoms after a few days down or so. I needed a down close (without getting killed) to get it. Too bad! This kind of action is not uncommon, where we are down and it’s ready to get triggered but the underlying forces don’t wait and we shoot up. Unfortunately the odds are not good trying to game it mid-day.
Alex: You don’t know much about publishing! I make about $1 per book. I promise to put the entire $4 into silver. The only way to make any money as an author is to sell a million copies, which—trust me—I ain’t done. I wrote it because people used to ask for a book I could recommend after attending my program, so I thought I’d better write one.
Re: Inflation
Willie Dudley just used the price of the I-pad2 as evidence of no inflation–to a crowd of blue collar workers in Queens. Oy!
The manorial system is alive and well.
Well … thanks Gary and all subs … it was an trying week but I managed to hold on. In my pre SMT life I would have bailed for sure … instead I have learned to buy when it’s impossible and have an even better position now then I did on Monday.
Thanks All.
Yes, great week! Thank you, Gary! Thank you, All!
Congratulations new (and almost new) parents and stay safe, Bill!!
Let’s see if I can get some “real” work done now, and head out later for a burger and a beer.
Ohh … did I say it’s time for a Caesar … that’s the Canadian version of a bloody Mary that’ll knock your socks off if you’ve never had one!
Cheers …
A high beta cocktail, eh Avann? Cheers indeed!
Happy weekend!
Yep, thanks to all for collectively keeping our/my cool.
Special mention to Gary of course but I also appreciate Alex’s detailed thoughts.
I’ve always been a short-term trader simply because I couldn’t stomach the down days. This method worked okay for me as I didn’t lose money but the problem is it is a lot of work and you can’t make the big money unless you bet big.
Anyhow, learning to hang on to my positions has probably been my biggest lesson I’ve gleaned from Gary et al.
Have a good weekend everyone and godspeed to all those affected by the events in Japan.
Jennifer, that link doesn’t work for me.
V-
Try this: http://tinyurl.com/4croede
Dg
Correct, but with 1000 books sold & the 2 seminars 🙂
As I read the blog and saw Hammy return, I had a few thoughts.
I think its really just all in fun humor ( kind of like Saturday Night Live skits..poking fun of politicians, celebs,Mayor of N.Y. etc for a laugh-but later they have some of those they joked about on the show later-Tina fey doing Sarah Palin,but later Palin came on,etc ).
Hammy thought it was “hate” on the blog. Its just humor/satire. I dont ‘hate’, but I laughed pretty good when I read it (was that PIMA?),and saw that PICTURE-I dont believe that it nor SNL is ‘hate’ hammy, just entertaining.
Just my 2 cents ,I guess-and 2 cents isnt worth anything at all these days,really. 🙂
David K,
I tend to think you’re right on the S&P. If the QE2 trade and dollar collapse is on the cards, I’m thinking all risk assets will continue to rally, as they have done to date.
This comment has been removed by the author.
Gary,
In light of the fact that the Fed has to buy 70% of the US Govt’s debt…
In light of the fact that food and energy and PM prices are not included in CPI (which is what the sheeple are told is inflation)…
And in light of this news about the continued drop in shadow and conventional banking liabilities…
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/440-billion-drop-shadow-and-conventional-banking-system-liabilities-q3-gives-bernanke-carte-
How the heck is The Ben Bernank going to just stop QE in June?! Because Uncle Bob and Aunt Mabel are ticked about gas prices? I don’t see it.
aAlso: you and I may be keenly aware of the DXY’s approach of the abyss, but not 1 American in 1,000 even knows what the DXY is.
But they can read about CPI every month in USA Today…the Ben Bernank can count on the US Govt’s propaganda arms to assure them that inflation is not a problem.
p.s.–
I am grateful to have found your newsletter…your calls this week were great.
Catbird,
There is a price for everything and US debt will just need to be priced a little higher, possibly.
High deficits to GDP were easily being funded in the past and there is no expectation that they won’t be funded without the FED buying. The FED buying has alienated a lot of buyers and once they leave the market many will come back to it.
If the risk trades start to fail you will also see a substantial return to wanting to own treasuries.
Of course higher interest rates is not going to help equities….or the economy.
So from that stand point I expect future QE’s. I just don’t think future buying is required to support deficit spending, but rather to keep the economy from chocking.
Headline on Drudge-
RADIATION AT NUKE PLANT: 1000X NORMAL
Scary over there in Japan right now. A couple % downward moves on the price of silver seems awfully silly to worry about now.
“QE 1” never ended, so there’s your answer there.
All that happened in April of 2010 is that the Fed PRETENDED that it had stopped buying-up every bond in sight. Obviously ONE of the reasons why it’s so frantic about preventing an “audit” is that it’s TERRIFIED about people finding out the TRUTH of what’s actually there – i.e. how many more $100’s of billions or $TRILLIONS that it has printed but not admitted to .
Simply, the U.S. bond market would INSTANTLY COLLAPSE if the bond-buying Ponzi-scheme ever ended
Obama orders inquiry into gasoline price gouging
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/obama-orders-inquiry-into-gasoline-price-gouging-2011-03-11
This is funny. All he has to do is to give Gary a personal phone call.
Jennifer,LOL!
Well managed to get up to 130% in with last few % of agq this morning at 192
No news all day and just caught up and happy for people who were sounding really stressed earlier
Might be changing from skeleton back to fat gold budha after 1430
Congratulations to Romeo
Hammy and beanie bless them
But really my heart goes out to our Japanese friends
Gary
Any chance you can put the last day updated on stops and trade triggers page
Eg
Stops and trade triggers (march 8th)
Make it easier to check when it was last updated appreciate the hui and gold ref
Hi All and Gary,
I’m sure that this has been discussed here multiple times but I am new to the site (not trading though)… Is there a fear of paper silver not being able to deliver on the physical? Or is that just rumor? Also, if you can get more levergage out of the futures markets, why dont investors here trade the e-mini silver contracts as opposed to silver etf’s? Just wanted to see everyones thoughts. Thanks
Nice weekend all, enjoy.
Gary, can’t say it enough, but just fantastic.
Gary,
Before the weekend starts, I would lie to thank you for your amazing analysis…I follwed it exactly ….and it seemed to work…yesterday, I left 2 orders, one to buy 5 april gold at 1403 and one at 1396… Got done on the first one. Today, when the dollar was ralkying, I gathered some strenght and bought eur/usd atv1.3820…after a tough start, I am now feeling better on the position…
Thanks again for making us getting better atvdealing with a very volatile market!!!!
fat boy… you crack me up with skeleton gold man and budha gold man. too much LOL
At ease
Well we all got to keep the humor with these swings And in this c meaning d is just around the corner!
I,m ok at this stress after all it’s not life and death and I think the swing we are in is pretty middling to mild
I just brace for more expect the worst and laugh if it don,t happen
and of course listen to the advice from Gary and the team on the blog glad I grabbed more and missed the rest of the day
Alex
My pin money Alex pack is break even
Auy
Pzg
Goro
Exk doing well
Any updates on that lot 🙂
Guys,
I bought some AGQ at the money options (not many, Gary). These are the options that have a large spread between the bid and ask.
Apparently, the ask price is quite negotiable. I entered a price between the bid and ask and it felt like someone reached into my computer to grab the offer before I could get the mouse totally clicked.
My offer was obviously too high, even though it was nearly half way between the bid and ask.
Just a heads up to anyone contemplating buying some of these.
Yes, Wes, I felt the same way yesterday with AGQ. I started less than half way lower and then added 5 cents each time until it was accepted as a buy. That seemed to work. Takes some playing, but I hate overbidding then someone behind me gets it cheaper. 😉
Sibek,
If there is a shortage of physical, it is the opinion here that prices would compensate for it. I hold both physical and paper so it’s all good. 🙂
Price is a wonderful cure for a supply shortage. I expect at $50 we will see an avalanche of supply hit the market.
Gary can you explain to us in a future report what you mean when you say you expect the price action ending the c wave to take place in 2 smaller cycles?
We just got the first daily cycle of this larger intermediate cycle. I expect there will be two more of these smaller daily cycles before the final top.
Gary,
I know a few weeks ago you came out with a ballpark target for AGQ at the C-wave top. Any ballpark figure for SLW at the top of the C-wave?
Not a clue.
This comment has been removed by the author.
gary
with fresh money next week. should i just buy into the strength?
Jeff,
That would be for you to decide. I told everyone my plan of action and then acted upon my plan.
I’m guessing if one didn’t want to use that strategy they must have another plan. What was your plan if you didn’t want to buy the 20 DMA tag?
Gary, Sorry I must have missed it when you put out the ball park targets for this c-wave on Silver and AGQ. Can you tell again? And also just making sure I understand correctly that you think this c wave will be over by May? Thanks for sharing your work and knowledge.
It’s all in the nightly reports. I always suggest new subscribers read through at least 3-4 weeks so they can get up to speed with what we’re tracking.
i talked the wife into takeing it out of the market. maybe ill just call that good enough, or wait for the next cycle
Jeff,
I will make it a point to answer your question in the weekend report.
gary
she had 30% bonds and 70% stocks. she will get clobbered within 3 months correct
Gary,
I’m staying the course and sitting tight. I think you got something going there with your cycle work.
Saw an interview with Nenner on Tech Ticker the other day. He’s also all about cycles, but from what I can tell his track record for the past two years has been so so.
He mentions in that interview that he is out of gold, naturally at the exact top ;), and that his cycle work is telling him that gold should have topped out.
While I am not so impressed with him anyway, I wonder why the cycle guys are not all saying the same thing? Shouldn’t he know that there is more C wave to come? Just wondering, perhaps you can explain why cycle analysts come to different conclusions….
Thx
i will just by into the strenght unless you had a caution against it …. ok ill read the report
Definitely don’t want to be in bonds. The bond bull is over.
Probably don’t want to be in stocks after a 100% rally. Either get into the secular gold bull or sit in a money market until the next 4 year cycle low.
nenner made a call on the middle top we just had. he said tommarow will be a little up day. it was a 40 dollar down day
Nenner is focusing on gold when he should be looking at the dollar.
Besides as we all know cycles are mostly worthless for spotting tops. When someone tries to tell you his cycle analysis can spot a top you pretty much know he’s probably full of crap.
and i did by at 1404.50
thanks to you =)
gary
vuvvy ( now veronica i think) thinks he can pick tops.. if he will sell you a 200 dollar subscription ill pay for it. then you can learn if he really can pick them =)
I think I will be able to get pretty close but it probably won’t be with cycle analysis.
if you got me there halfway it would be better than i have ever done.
and however close you get i will be most gratefull. thankyou for everything
Basil,
If I am not mistaken, Nenner’s cycle work is based on pattern recognition. Basically he looks at the current trends, tries to match it to something in the past and use that to predict the future. So his “cycle analysis” has quite a different flavor to Gary’s and Doc’s.
Another guy who uses cycles is Larry Edelson from Uncommon Wisdom. He has been recommending his subs to stay out of gold and they have missed the runup from Jan/Feb. I think they will also miss the runup till the top of this C wave.
I mean even if you look at TA, 10 technical analysts in a room might give you 10 different recommendations and predictions 🙂
i was watching that Nenner guys also when he went on Tech Ticker but if i remember correctly he also said the stock market will top out in april and we will have economic retraction for another year. However no mention of the dollar
I agree. If you look at a lot of cycle work others do, its really about patterns. There X day or week cycle will be “turning point” cycles where tops and bottoms may align with the time period. Very different vs Gary. It seems most of them are really hit or miss and not very reliable for true market turning points, or maybe I haven’t been looking at them long enough and QE is screwing them up.
Also Gary’s approach to cycles is supplemented by his knowledge of gold’s ABCD wave pattern. Doc on the other hand uses trendline breaks to determine if cycle lows have occured.
Both of them use sentiment and intermarket analysis (e.g. looking at how the dollar or bonds may affect gold).
The other cycle analysts do not seem to do inter-market analysis or use sentiment indicators.
Gary,
Care to explain given today’s events, why with the USD struggling, gold couldn’t make a better showing? I see a $20 range. We have had $20 daily ranges on milder news.
Blogger fat boy said…
Alex
My pin money Alex pack is break even
Auy
Pzg
Goro
Exk doing well
Any updates on that lot 🙂
March 11, 2011 4:18 PM
FATBOY
I think those charts look fine ( love the EXK reversal and PZG has been a good % runner,tapping on the 50sma last 2 days 🙂
Some of the GOLDS are just underperforming the silvers a tad. I am heavier GPL, EXK, AXU, SLW, AGQ in my basket.
I have been watching the GOLD stocks, because if they move , I hope they play catch up and catch fire!! ( some are below their 50sma, and I just dont like that yet).
Honestly, I wanted to load up on NG -Nova Gold- today as it filled the gap. I believe this will double from $12 -IF- it gets moving, but for now I went into more silver stocks. {Maybe swap later}??
That said- AUY looks close to wanting to break out big too, but we’ll see what it does as it nears its old highs.
Have a great wkend guys-thinking of Japan and Bill too.
Great call Gary, Great blog Gary. Its the only one I frequent ( quality, not quantity when it comes to input here) you attract quality people/traders 🙂 Thanks again
Gary,
If we are to have two more cycles before C crest, will it go down as it did in the last two days? Just trying to anticipate what to expect, as it made this week a bit easier to ride through, knowing what to expect. Also, would help on buy ins.
… this is the only blog and service I use now and daily since I am fully in for the bull ride, I have come to look forward to the daily blogs for sentiment and added knowledge to Gary’s posting for learning and understanding this bull. All the other services, I paid for this past year, I don’t even open the emails or tips now, since I hear don’t do this, do this and it runs contrary to a lot of what we are doing. I want to focus on this bull ride. I do go and read subs recommendations and articles as I want to stay knowledgeable, however I think the most important lesson I learned this year was don’t invest in anything you don’t understand or enjoy cause bottom line, it’s your pocket that gets filled or emptied. And I have learned to trust my gut on my own my own moves. I can’t even tell you how many times I lost money on someone giving me an option tip from other services and they don’t give you a reasonable in/out or hold. I don’t want to be distracted by the naysayers and those who tell you where to make a dime when their are dollars to be made. Have lost enough in that learning process and made it back to my account with gold before I found SMT. So I knew there was money to be made in them their hills, I just needed a good guide to get me there and keep me focused. Gary has proven himself to me he knows what he is doing since Feb of this year. I am just glad I found his service (still don’t know how, it was a friend who encouraged him to do a online seminar), however like all the other subs, I am very greatful to be here. I didn’t realize how stressful this week was until I came home and crashed tonight and woke up to check for updates. 🙂
Thanks all for your inputs and updates, I have come to rely on them and enjoy them. Thank you Gary! 🙂
Jeff,you said:
vuvvy ( now veronica i think) thinks he can pick tops.. if he will sell you a 200 dollar subscription ill pay for it. then you can learn if he really can pick them =)
200.00 dollar subscription? I’m not selling anything here and will give my signals for free as long as I don’t get beat up by others.I’ve given my real time signals with my system buy at 1344, the sell at 1423(20.00 from the top)and how I interpret that sell(many times marking the exact bottom to the day early in an IT cycle, fingers crossed hoping that it did exactly that)Whether we have 1 or 2 more cycles up I would imagine my system should do OK and if it forms any blowoff tops should come close to taking profits 1-3 days from the top.
Thanks for the weekend report Gary. You got me all fired up. I can’t wait for monday…my new brokerage account should be ready for some buying.
Vuvvy,
First, thanks for sharing your knowledge here.
Thought the following information from Harvey Organ’s Thursday night report might be interesting for you (and others). I’ve included a quote but here’s the complete link:
http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/
“That is the mechanics of the raid. Later in the commentary, I will talk about the mechanics of the short sales on the mining companies. As a rule when you see gold and silver rise big time and the shares of big mining companies remain stationary or fall, generally that is the signal that a raid will begin in full force the next day. Also a raid generally begins the day before the big (phony) jobs report on the first of every month.”
PS depending on when you read this, the Thursday report might have already been replaced by the Sat. report
Fidelity Select Gold has a 30 day Short-term Fee Period, with a 0.75% Short-term Trading Fee. Just a heads up for those wanting to transfer $$$$ from fund to fund. Don’t get caught paying fees trying to get out at the end of the C-Wave.
Gary,
I know we are not interested in trading the wiggles, regardless of their cause, so please ignore my previous post 🙂
I must say it has been amazing watching Gary’s work and how it interacts with mine since last summer.It has given me confidence to trade larger positions at certain times.Gary, thanks for that:)I’d gotten a away from cycle theory since the imprisonment of David Marantette, who was just a spectacular cycle timer,and have not been able to find anyone else to learn cycle work from till I found Gary’s work. To all newbies in gold, Gary is the REAL DEAL, in a space dominated by many writers I would consider border line mentally ill.
Veronica said…in a space dominated by many writers I would consider border line mentally ill.
Now that is funny! Probably very true, but very funny too!
Veronica
Nice comment , there seams huge madness out there evidenced by some of the forays the make here
My first blogging experience is garys blog now for the last year and a half, I have visited other market blogs half a dozen times
So What time I do get to read blogs I don,t want to waste elsewhere and appreciate those here who do it for me , thanks
V
I did not mean to sell it to the board. It was chat and I meant no insult to Gary . I do know that I like learning from the whole board and I am thrilled to follow Gary wholly
I’m fully aware I’m the flea trying to ride the bull, just now I’m getting the chance to bite it in the axx
Thanks all
Jeff
You and I in the same boat
The plan I try to follow is that When there is real action on the board I stop chatting and try to learn and its veronica and others I listen to……..
Alex
thanks for the update appreciated as you know
I am just playing with those few juniors and forgot to mention axu too
rest in the silver triptych
Have a good weekend all…
Wish I,d remembered this one yesterday
Come, cheer up, my lads, ’tis to glory we steer,
To add something more to this wonderful year;
To honour we call you, as freemen not slaves,
For who are so free as the sons of the waves?
Paul, good reminder on mutual funds (30 days), I placed funds back in February, with Gary’s insight into the C crest. So I would be sure to not get hit with fees. The mutual fund spread over miners, so I could concentrate on the stock metals. I also just pulled funds from my Annuity (no metals to invest in and as you all know, I just moved it into energy and metals, (not gold), so got a small fee to pull it out, but would rather pay fee than lose it), so adding some to IRA for more Gold and Silver and will hold the rest in cash to play. I didn’t want it disappearing when stock funds end up in money heaven. I actually made a good amount in the fidelity gold mutual fund last fall out of dumb luck on my first money all in for Gold. I just didn’t know where else to put funds last year and tired of terrible returns, so someone suggested putting it in gold to ride. I hadn’t played stocks at that time, but since have learned. But that move was the best I have ever done and looking for more.
Anyhow, if you all are wanting reinforcement in your mind as to why you need to stay the course with Gary , there are two books I read that WILL keep you on course and will relay the outcomes of what is expected from the dollar printing. After reading these books, they got me into Gold and silver, however it is Gary that is going to lead us through the landmines of the market to get to the other side with funds intact and more. Good insight on the big picture: Great Super Cycle (DS) and Aftershock (new release coming out in March, brothers (D&RW). Follow Gary’s advice! Get out of stocks or your money big or small will end up in money heaven. Poof! Gone….
Great weekend report, Gary! And funny as well. Your comment that “…because some nitwit thinks some meaningless technical level got broken” had me laughing out loud.
Paul,
If the Fidelity fund is the only PM choice you have to ride this C wave (say you’re in a 401k and have a limited list of funds you can invest in), I would NOT let the .75 percent fee stop me. PM’s can go up 2 or 3 percent in ONE DAY and if this is indeed the end of the C wave (one or two daily cycle lows after this one), then we would expect gains of at least 10 percent, and more than 20 percent is possible. Paying the .75 percent fee to get out early is down in the noise.
(I don’t know what the rules are with that fund, some funds you pay the fee if you get out within 30 days, other funds it’s longer, like 60 or 90 days. If it’s only 30, it’s possible the C wave will still be running when 30 days are up, so the fee would go away at that point anyway.)
All should listen to Jim Rickards talking about QE ending in June and perpetual QE at King World News: http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2011/3/12_Jim_Rickards.html
Folks, perpetual QE is complete nonsense. It simply can’t happen. It’s easy to say there will be QE3 right now. But right now we aren’t in the middle of an out of control currency crisis.
I’ve warned many times not to extrapolate the past into the future.
It will be politically impossible to run QE3 in the middle of a dollar crisis.
Listening to this kind of nonsense will get you caught in the D-wave decline.
Trust me the dollar will bottom at the three year cycle low. Ben will be forced by the market to halt all QE operations. And the dollar will explode higher out of that major cycle bottom as the forces of deflation return to the world.
Gary or anyone else with the answer … why does the next high have to go above 1431 (Thursday) and not 1424 (Friday) to confirm a swing low?
Avann,
I have a definition of swings in the terminology document. It will explain how a swing is formed.
I read and re-read that … maybe I’m just thick … I’m assuming it’s because Thursday had a lower low then Friday.
Correct we have to exceed Thursday’s intraday high to form a swing low.
Friday was an inside day and of no meaning.
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Thank you Gary
Avann
I’m a little thickheaded and don’t get it either
We will get there though
Gary,
I am correctly positioned heavily in PM instead of wasting capital on shorting anything in stocks….ready for liftoff.
Maybe I am jumping the gun on this but would like to clearly understand *what is next*. I find I am confused by the last paragraph of the stock section, mainly in regard to the ‘forces of deflation’ and how this will affect shorting. I am not expecting an immediate answer in the blog. Please elaborate on the inflation/deflation aspect in future subscriber reports. BTW, your crystal ball seems to be quite finely tuned. I feel very lucky to have found you. I have never before made advances in my portfolio like I am now.
Anybody
I have been scrolling for an hour trying to find how much the 20 moving average is climbing. It was said on the board. Anyone know?
You could just eye ball it from this:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p39891177722
Got it driver. Thankyou
Jeff, yes but in fairness to our thick headedness … the terminology document does not make a distinction between “the prior intra day high” and what I think should be noted as “the prior intra day high that ALSO posted the lowest intra day low.”
I’m not even sure that’s correct but we’re definitely getting closer.
If Friday had posted a lower low than Thursday then Friday’s high would have been the high to beat but if Friday had posted a lower low AND a higher high … well my thick head is getting the better of me again … I better quit while I’m ahead.
I know this is not an exact science but it’s nice to know why certain numbers/days are more important than others.
Gary
Nice report as usual. I have two questions.
1- If we are on week 6 now heading in to the 7th week of this intermediate cycle and the daily cycles usually last 20-25 days, is it not possible we could have 3 more daily cycles left or do you expect the remaining two cycles to be stretched like this one was?(29days)
2- Will you try to trade the SLW calls at the end of this coming daily cycle and jump in at the beginning of the final daily cycle, after some profit taking with the same type of trade?
Something tells me your just going to hold SLW calls being they are June
Gary, what’s the maximum leverage you intend to have at the peak? 200% or more?
Gary,
Despite our shared respectful differences in thoughts at times, you really are a great coach. Keep up the great work for your subs! This week-end report really served the novice ones the best.
avann
i understand the rule and i can see the swings he points out. although i think when it gets to be multiple days, that is what confuses me. … . i think
Novice,
I would assume that at the peak he will have no leverage at all.
novice
gary said on the blog that we would scale out near when it gets time
You would not want to be leveraged near the peak. The downside danger increases exponentially.
Pima,
I transferred 40,000 to fidelity select gold in my 403 B and I do agree the .75% fee is peanuts compared to what I expect out of this C wave. I just wanted to make people aware. Nothing worse than sticker shock.
Here is a question regarding scaling out. Do you plan to sell at certain levels or keep raising your stops until your stopped out.
Ike,
Raising your stops probably won’t work. Things will be insanely volatile at the top. You may get stopped out earlier than you’d like.
Also, in all likelihood, the first big drop will be major, and it could come before the market opens. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the market gap down huge on that day, so you get filled way below your stop.
You could see silver up $5 at the top, followed by a sudden $5 decline — meaning waking up to see AGQ down 20% at the open.
Those last few days will be dicey. You should be mentally prepared to leave some money on the table.
David,
Thanks for those insights. Will keep that in mind as we approach the top.
What are your thoughts on April vs later calls on SLV?
I’m just concerned about the timeframe.
I would never buy a call the expires prior to when I expect the top to occur.
People buying March or April are trying to leverage up. I’m not trying to leverage massively. I just want to control the same amount of shares with options as if I had bought the shares and when I sell I want there to be plenty of time value still left in those options.
People need to read the options document again and take that information to heart if they are going to get involved with options.
If you don’t know what you are doing then don’t buy options. It’s that simple.
Gary,
In reality you’re leverage is ~2:1 as you have so much in AGQ. Actually it might be slightly more now with the options.
I use spreadbetting to match your leverage. Its a pity US citizens cant spreadbet. We in the UK are very lucky as the profits are tax free 🙂
I treat AGQ not as leverage but as a very high beta stock, similar to a very volatile junior miner. I don’t actually have to borrow on margin to buy AGQ. So even though AGQ will move twice as much as silver I could have 100% of my capital in AGQ and not have to worry about a margin call.
The same couldn’t be said if I was borrowing 100% on margin to own 200% in SLV.
I’d hate to be long uranium stocks come next week. Scary situation going down in japan.
Thanks Gary, I was thinking along the same lines considering the anticipated timeline.
Another question; where can I get Delta info on options for free?
Thanks.
David,
I appreciate your answer. Normally I like to raise my stops until i eventually get stopped out, therefore no emotions involved.
How you describe it makes a lot of sense. I will plan accordingly, thank you.
Ivolatility
I’ve used these articles often and help explain Gary’s concept well.
http://www.investorplace.com/714/what-is-options-delta/
Generally you want to purchase options that exercise 3 months past when you expect to sell them. My SLV positions are all July for this reason. The decay in price over the final 30 days is very rapid. But then again, deep in the money options don’t carry a whole lot of time value to decay.
and my fav options calculator:
http://optionseducation.org/quotes/default.jsp
Thanks for both those link Poly.
Poly,
Thanks for the link to the info about options – very much appreciated.
Bill, saw your post dude. Godspeed. My brother is in Tokyo also – he works for the Christian School of Japan. So far he’s alright. The acute catastrophe is over, now for the chronic mayhem. Screw the markets – get your family to safety. But I’m sure you know that. Geez, how horrific. All I can do is hope and pray for you folks over there. Believe me, I’m hoping and praying, baby!
Yes, that catastrophe was truly horrific. To watch it unfold was awful. And now the nuclear problem. sheesh
Hi Tudor. Like your brother, we’re luckily out of harms way, including being upwind from the nuclear power plant. I’m now watching it on TV like you and everyone else. It’s very sad to see all the bodies. Some are still alive trapped in cars that floated down rivers after the dam burst. The quake was upgraded to a richter 9.0 now. There are 2000 confirmed dead now, though remember there were 230,000 dead in the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami, most in Indonesia. Not much to say, just unbelievable is all. Live straight I think, because with infinity behind us, and ahead of us, something else is surely going on.
For sake of review,
covered the remaining 50% short gdx position around 56.XX.
covered 50% short GC from 1428 around 1404. In hindsight now, it was a mistake to wait to cover and go long for a lower level. I will not chase this as I see a larger down move soon before you folks see your 1550+. Again I may be wrong. I am also watching the same charts that Gary is watching.
slv puts – 50% that were remaining are pretty useless at this point. I have mentioned several times that i trade slv very small – never had much success with it on either the long or the short for some reason. May be my TA and patterns do not work with silver chart that well 🙂
I will hold GC to get stopped out at 1428. And will likely short GC again when the stock market tests the highs or makes marginal highs. I will look to go long GC sub-1310 sometime around early April for a ride to 1550+
Gary,
I have a question about the 4 year cycle in the stock market.
If the stock market has just topped and you expect the 4 year cycle low in the next 18 months, would that not make the cycle a right translated one as the last low was Mar 2009?
If so, why would you expect the market to make new marginal lows?
Gary,
You could leverage yourself 3 times and never get a margin call. You just adjust your position on a daily basis, so that when the asset goes down you sell part of your position so that you remain 3 times leveraged. It’s exactly what AGQ does, or any other leveraged etf.
The only reason people get margin calls is because they don’t adjust the leverage when the asset goes down, so their leverage is increasing instead of remaining at the level they were before the asset went down.
You would be better off if you leveraged yourself 200% in silver futures contract and adjusted your position on a daily basis then if you were 100% exposed to AGQ.
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