242 thoughts on “Portfolio change

  1. AMoldyHamsammich

    Gary-

    Hammy said Hammy was done here, but I can’t believe you added here. DID YOU ASK THE HAMMY? NO. Hammy is not comfortable with you adding here. Hammy is going to be back one more time, once GOLD drops another 1% and tell all you cycle monkeys that THE HAMMY IS NEVER WRONG.

  2. Ryan

    I know several added to miners here but waiting for metals? I’ve added to both this morning and thinking of adding more metals after to see the action later in the day. Anybody thinking of waiting for tomorrow to add to metals instead?

  3. Aaron

    Access might be where 1400 cracks, although I still think its unlikely they would do that since there are way too many buyers waiting there…we shall see in 1.5 hours I guess

  4. Slumdog

    Does anyone see the dynamite triangle forming on the hourly chart?

    Do you know which direction it will move in, if it forms, 50 min from now?

  5. David

    Hammy,

    I just spilled my Big Gulp all over my keyboard.

    When you’re done posting on Kitco during your lunch break, can you come upstairs and clean it up?

    Thanks.

  6. ddn3f

    I am correct in saying that gold bottoms are not usually V-bottoms. Gold just mulls around for a while and moves slowly up so you can’t tell if you caught the bottom or not.

  7. Poly

    I noticed that call option was close too. Gary trying to skim a few more points on this final few cycles πŸ™‚

  8. David Kafrick

    On tuesday we have FOMC statement and federal funds rate announcement. I think it is very unlikely that the stock market, gold and the Euro will put any significant bottom before that. We could see a bounce today or tomorrow, but I expect it to be revisited on tuesday.

  9. Steven

    Gary,

    I’m confused. You had said the only time to consider options is at the beginning of the A wave and even then they would be deep in the money options. What has caused you to change strategy a bit here? Just trying to understand your method and thinking.

  10. Slumdog

    The somewhat awkward dynamite triangle in the SIK hourly now still in formation, and probably completing has about an 80% probability it will move the market by .5 pts off of the high end or low end of the long bar. 35.66 or 34.16.

  11. Jayhawk

    Silver riding the daily trend line && 10 DMA even though gold crushed through it’s TL & got to the 20.

    I’m kind of thinking now it might break and the 20 MA for silver might get tagged? The force of this sell off and the miners crapping their pants makes me think we could have more pain.

    I want to add a bit more and may do so today but just mentally preparing, esp if that DX keeps chugging up and the overall market keeps getting pounded.

    Silver

    That all being said, I find this action a bit troubling if a massive C wave is suppose to be in progress. Next few days will be telling.

  12. David

    Jayhawk,

    We are also supposedly six weeks from a C-wave top but the XAU has never even managed to break above its old high — not even close.

    The XAU either needs to blast off soon or…

  13. viking

    Re: C wave top

    longtime reader of Gary

    he is almost always right

    but he is almost always early

    give it time, we had a sick run in feb.

    btfd

  14. David Kafrick

    The action in the EURUSD since the January bottom has been uninspiring, and although I can see it going to 1.45 or so, I don´t see a melt up happening, which means that right now I don´t see the dollar collapsing in any way.

    I just hope that waiting for the dollar colapse doesn´t turn out to be a Beckettian thing, as in Waiting for Godot.

  15. Jayhawk

    XAU does look AWFUL. A small drop from here to a double bottom on the FEB lows. Just look at the action on normally solid gold miners like GOLD.

    I’m glad to be riding the silver train, but a C-Wave should be not see these big names getting no action. Strange to me for sure.

  16. Ben

    92000, the drop has to do with the permanent, “take no prisoners zone” that the big boyz established a long time ago. Today is just tree shaking… hopefully not the entire landscape.

  17. Uatatoka

    “That all being said, I find this action a bit troubling if a massive C wave is suppose to be in progress. Next few days will be telling.”

    Expect the volatility to increase the further the C-wave goes. I would not expect a straight shot to the moon by any means.

  18. Steven

    Does anyone think the partial recovery in the metals has anything to do with the Suadi police firing on demonstrators? I ask because the “Day of Rage” isn’t until tomorrow.

  19. Brian

    For those interested, Extorre is going to list on the AMEX symbol XG. This was a carve out from XRA and has performed very nicely. Current symbol is exgmf if you want to see the chart. I do own it.

  20. Shalom Bernanke

    Just checking in, and it’s good to see Gary put more chips on the table this morning.

    Still, I’m not adding more here. Only into sharp pukes like this morning. Maybe we’ll get another in a day or two?

  21. Ryan

    SB, I thought you added some miners in the morning? Still waiting to add on your metals? I added to both and may add more still have 50% of my dry powder left.

  22. coolkevs

    From Kevin Depew at Minyanville (paraphrased by me)
    SLW closed below its reference close yesterday – bearish
    Silver itself will most likely not perfect its DAILY sell setup today. Usually, the tendency is for it to perfect, which would require a new high – perhaps on the Day of Rage???
    If Silver closes below 35.43, with a down open tomorrow, it qualifies a break of TD Prop Down Momentum to…34.33?? weren’t we already there today?? DAILY Silver already on a TD Sequential Sell which will probably be confirmed today with a bearish price flip. Good through the middle of the week of March 20
    General Market: NDX will most likely close below its reference close level of 2315.26 – bearish
    SP: WEEKLY Sell signal will probably be confirmed with a bearish price flip this week – good into early May. Cannot qualify DAILY down level today @ 1305, but we might be able to qualify WEEKLY down with a close below 1286.55 Friday, then down open on Monday. Target if qualified is SP 1236.10

  23. Shalom Bernanke

    Ryan,

    I was buying this morning (miners), but not the metal yet, only because they were offering some great bargains this morning. Either way, the metal should do fine too, regardless of the next couple days where we could see some additional weakness.

    We have to buy ’em some time, and sharp declines offer the lowest risk entries. One thing for sure, if we’re lucky enough to sell off some more, I’ll put more to work.

    I still don’t own AGQ, but it’s on the list of candidates.

  24. Shalom Bernanke

    And when I say we could see weakness, I mean both the metals and the miners I hold as well. It’s never going to be perfect, so adjust size for some wiggle room and scout for the next opportunity. πŸ™‚

  25. Steven

    And FWIW, the protests and firing are in the main oil regionof Saudi Arabia.

    Does anything think the full-fledged day of rage tomorrow will be PM positive or already built in?

    Gary – I know you say it is because of the daily low and not news related but I think you had mentioned that Korea cause things to be messed up with your daily cycle and just wondering if you see the same thing here?

  26. David Kafrick

    mlmt,

    I have been patiently waiting for this S&P trade. But I still feel we need to go a little bit lower. I am thinking between 1286 and 1290 on the cash S&P.

    The bottom could have been made already, but I will not chase it here because I still feel the high probability is one more push down to the levels I mentioned.

  27. Ryan

    Veronica/Vuvvy,

    Why do you say that? Isn’t this normal for a daily cycle low and then a resumption of the c-wave?

  28. TZ(5288)

    Not adding anything at these levels today.

    These really aren’t very significant drops despite the glee many are feeling buying them today.

    These aren’t ‘deals’.

    I’m sitting and waiting. If silver goes 32-33.50 I’m still willing to add.

  29. Veronica

    Ryan I don’t mean this very minute but seeing how my system interacted with other large rises in the past any more large sticks down could be trouble.I would like to see no new lows, or just marginal ones the next day or 2.A low volatility day/lows holding tomorrow with new highs Monday/Tuesday would be perfect:)

  30. TZ(5288)

    >many miners were deals this morning.

    Perhaps. They certainly gapped down hard. GPL off 20% in two days.

    But I’m not in the stocks for reasons I said earlier due to most not outperforming silver and those that will/might I would be crazy to put my net worth into.

    I’ve got enough long (5x+) if I’m wrong about a bottom here, but I simply don’t want to add at a marginal pullback which doesn’t really scream ‘deal’.

  31. pimaCanyon

    Veronica,

    Have you tested your system on all C wave legs in this PM bull? I would expect similarities, but would also expect some to not conform.

    Also, –IF– this is the last leg of the current C wave and –IF– it evolved into a blowoff top, wouldn’t we expect an increase in volatility? If so, wouldn’t the dips be more severe (as well as the sharp rises also being more severe)?

  32. Vonda

    Awe, don’t say it, 92000.

    The last time AGQ was in 180’s, Basil got bored. And when Basil got bored, I lost 10% of my portfolio in five minutes!

    IF this was the worst of it, this go-round, kind of a yawner. (I’m not complaining.)

    “Buy and worry.” Like that, David! Not fun, but honest.

  33. pimaCanyon

    Daily volumes today on GLD and SLV nothing to write home about. gold and silver futures volume a little higher than normal, but nothing spectacular.

    BoW numbers also weak. GLD is on the list, but at a measly 6 mill.

    I don’t see SLV, SLW, GDX, or GDXJ on the list at all. GG and NEM are there, but with small numbers.

    So far, there doesn’t seem to be any rush to buy this dip in PM’s.

  34. Steven

    Hey Wes,

    How many days of downside action did you notice after the last two short-term tops in AGQ and do you know the average decline?

    THanks!

  35. Veronica

    Pima, I have the capability to backtest to 1974 for gold and the 1960’s for silver.I am certainly not saying this pullback cannot go further and the C wave to still be intact but if we pull back much further the chances for a multi week/month consolidation are much greater.We all know gold can do whatever it pleases and does most of the time to throw us off.It is most certainly a very humbling way of making $.

  36. Veronica

    Pima, in early Oct of 1979 my system got a sell signal that did not immediately reverse and it then consolidated in a triangle for 1.5 months with a fake breakdown before the next buy signal generated. We all know what happened after that:)I will be keeping my core positions but will have a tight leash on additional buys until I’m convinced the cycle bottom is in.

  37. pimaCanyon

    Thanks, Veronica. The next few days will be the tell. I certainly don’t want to sit thru a sideways (or worse) consolidation thru the summer, so let’s up this bull starts running uphill quick.

  38. David

    Pima,

    Let’s keep in mind that this weakness is happening right on Gary’s schedule. He called it exactly.

    So as long as things are unfolding as expected we should stick to the plan.

  39. Shalom Bernanke

    The $HUI has pulled back 50% from the rally that started in late January. If stocks and the entire commodity mkts weren’t so weak, this would be the general area to bottom.

    That said, it’s looking like more weakness in the short term.

  40. AMoldyHamsammich

    You’re darn right this is at TEST BoblovesHawaii! It’s a test on if you will bow the the mighty Hammy and listen to the Hammy’s brilliant gold calls. Hammy called this recent top and Hammy will continue to knock them out of the park. Hammy also likes the respect little Mikey is showing the Hamminator. Good choice Mikey, I bet you will like the Hammy like you did that Life cereal back in 1975.

    Hammy thinks the sell off MIGHT not be over. Hammy thinks a day or 2 more of selling then the bottom. UNLESS we start to move higher here now, they the HAMMY says that higher prices are coming. Third, if these 2 scenarios don’t play out, you have the very real possibility that gold will trend sideways. NOW, IF THERE’S A MAJOR GEOPOLITICAL EVENT, I predict gold may go way up from here.

    There’s your HAMMY afternoon call for the day. Back to KITCO to talk with my other brilliant trading buddies.

    Hammy out.

    -“Don’t Mess with the Hammy, You Will Get the Snout”

  41. David Kafrick

    If tomorrow turns out to be another big down day for the EURUSD there is a very good chance that something else might be going on, probably a few weeks of dollar uptrend. I will get out of my silver position as I don´t want to be around for that.

  42. Poly

    Agree.

    If anybody had “alternative systems” that worked, they wouldn’t necessarily be hear posting. Yeah sure I know they complement your system….

    Gary has been on the mark for so long and with uncanny accuracy. Decisions on gold/silver are based around these calls, in my book.

  43. Jayhawk

    Not many buyers coming in today on these high fliers (SLW, AG, EXK, SVM) Most are sitting on their 20 MA’s. Hopefully, those hold.

  44. Veronica

    Poly, the last thing I want to be is a distraction on this board. Would you rather I stop posting any system trades? Maybe Gary would rather I stop too?

  45. Shalom Bernanke

    Maybe the Fed is going to nix QE2 and 3 in the meeting? NOOOOO!!!! πŸ™‚

    I’d have to sell on that news if I believed anything that ever came out of their mouths.

  46. AGQ

    AMoldyHamsammich, ease off hammy’s nuts for a sec. you did give me a good chuckle for the day though. i got cash to buy on more dips. you a funny guy.

  47. jeff

    gary

    gold daily cycle is on target. i got my futures at 1404.
    but what is up with the entire market sector. specifically EVERYTHING ?

  48. ALEX

    Just to weigh in here-

    I dont really like what I see here today. I am on my laptop and cant attach charts at this time…

    But for one thing-

    1) Aren’t we in the strongest part of the bulls C-wave to date?

    I look at GDX and GDXJ and HUI/XAU…compared to the July to Nov run . Then they never really crashed below 20sma until late Oct-
    Today , 1 1/2 months after the Jan low…they are crashing below the 50sma!

    2) GDXJ , HUI , etc…uptrend threatened with lower low and close there so far ( isnt it supposed to be “higher low, higher high” maintains the uptrend?

    just saying- I wouldnt add leverage yet

  49. Veronica

    I hope I’m not a distraction.I’ve done exactly what I outlined I would do yesterday if my system triggered and my risk is now defined.I would hope nobody here would follow me blindly but use me as another data point that bolsters Gary’s view.

  50. pimaCanyon

    That’s exactly what I am doing with the information you provide, Veronica. I’m a sub to Gary’s nightly report, that’s my main data source, but it’s nice to get your input too.

  51. ALEX

    Blogger DumbMovingAvg said…

    GLD tagged the 20 DMA twice and almost 3 times between August and November, 2010.

    Exactly ,

    And so did the GDX and GDXJ , but thats not what happened today…

    they are acting weaker this time around, plunging through and closing below the 50sma. THAT didnt happen early on in the JULY run , and this is supposed to be the STRONGEST and best leg up.

    I’m just saying,,,something to keep an eye on , for those so inclined.

    A gap open tomorrow and a close up would ease my concerns.

    I guess at this point I would watch the bounce from here ( maybe to fill those gaps above). If there’s no conviction, I am convinced that I will change my flexible plan πŸ™‚

  52. pimaCanyon

    Alex,

    I hear what you’re saying, I’m not liking the behavior of the miners either.

    However, if you look at HUI chart, you’ll see that on the first major pullback after the late July low, HUI retraced a little more than 50 percent of the move up from that late July low (pullback bottomed on 8/24). Today HUI bottomed at exactly 50 percent retracement of the move up since late January. So from that perspective, this pullback looks pretty normal.

  53. ALEX

    Blogger james r said…

    On Aug. 11 GDX closed handsomely below the 50 MA.

    March 10, 2011 1:08 PM

    TRUE, but it hadnt yet regained and spent any time above it yet , at that point. It was bumping it to regain it.

    Time will tell , buy and sell πŸ™‚

  54. ALEX

    PIMA C

    thx , see thats the only reason I air my concerns…

    I want to hear the pro’s and cons

    add them together , and weigh the results.

    Thx Pima , one more for the Pro’s

  55. pimaCanyon

    You’re welcome.

    Keep airing those concerns! (even if they sound like doom and gloom, I don’t care.) Keeps us honest. And a little bit scared. A little bit of fear is probably healthy. No fear and we all put on heavy leverage and you know where Gary says that will end up!

  56. ALEX

    And I could add that most of us care a lot less about HUI and XAU and even the GDX , then we do for SIL and SLW and AGQ

    they are acting correctly,,thats another YAY!

    I am quite invested, just saying..not adding leverage yet…I FEEL , its a ‘feeling’ that its NOT the strongest leg up yet. I see a lower low in HUI and GDX ( even GDXJ..that shocks me on the strongest wave up).

    I am hoping to be proven wrong just as much as everyone in here. I DO NOT want to be bored to tears with a sideways move through the summer either!

    Still watching that Dollar for a collapse…theres a lot to see yet.

  57. ALEX

    Brian

    I believe that could be true too…the trigger happy sell button πŸ™‚

    Your MMG didnt disappoint today though , thats quite the reversal

  58. Aaron

    I love this!
    Its funny how everyone complains about not having pullbacks to add, yet when we get it, all the reluctance to add surfaces… everyone thinks this run is a mistake and a D wave is coming.
    Comical.

  59. pimaCanyon

    Speaking of not liking the miners, I’m not liking the dollar! Big green candle today.

    However, on the plus side (in favor of “hey Buck, that all you got?!”) is the fact that today’s high was almost exactly a 50 percent retracement of the move down from the Feb 14 high to the March 3 low. 50 percent is common. Starts going much over that, especially if it gets above 62 percent, then I will start to wonder whether the March 3 low was some kind of major bottom.

  60. pimaCanyon

    Here’s another concern (besides the strength of the dollar and the weakness of GDX/HUI): GDXJ. The juniors had a much more significant pullback over the past 3 days compared to the first big pullback on the runup after the late July low.

    When GDXJ bottomed on 8/24, it was only 38 percent retracement of move up from late July.

    Today’s low was more than a 50 percent retracement from late January low.

    SIL and SLV are looking good though. SIL’s pullback today bottomed at a little more than 38 percent retracement. Silver’s bottomed at around 20 percent!

    Okay, I’m done for now. Let’s see what the next few trading days bring.

  61. catbird

    The anxiety among certain folks on this blog today makes me feel much better about being long silver…not to mention about my decision to add today with Gary.

    It seems some of you (not naming names) would actually feel BETTER buying into a gap UP!

    Sometimes I wonder if we’re reading the same newsletter…

  62. Jayhawk

    I added a good chunk of SLW calls in the AM. I have about 5% cash position I was going to use for some options plays once this daily cycle low is in, so I’m pretty fully loaded. I don’t have any leverage, so I’m like Alex here…cautious is all.

    You’ve got to admit, that was a pretty ugly day on the miners we all know and love. I can take a correction to the 20 MA, but to see it happen in the span of a few hours, well that looks pretty ugly. If this whole C wave theory is correct, there aught to be a MASSIVE move in the next couple of weeks coming out of the daily low.

    Again, the large cap miners are stuck in the mud. This too does not seem to fit with a C wave blow off.

    I think we are catching something usual cooking in the silver market…Not sure this has anything to do with a 3 year dollar low move yet. The last 2 years have seen it’s big moves in the miners coming out of the summer intermediate. With the overall market in sell off mode now, we have some headwinds we are fighting here.

  63. Shalom Bernanke

    “Don’t worry if they cancel QE2 and QE3, QE4 will replace both of them. :”-Keys

    You got that right! The Fed will monetize, or the jig is up and they go to prison. πŸ™‚

  64. catbird

    Jayhawk,

    I hear you. Just remember– the Big Boyz specialize in tricking people by giving a head fake to goose the fear up.

    You follow the metals and subscribe to Gary and YOU are getting concerned. Just imagine the emotions that today’s action created in the DUMB money!

    Ask yourself: what could the Big Boyz do that would surprise the largest number of people in the aftershock of today’s sell off? A massive blast off in the next few days, that’s what.

  65. Poly

    When these juniors gap open 10% and move 30% in a week, we’re all smiles.
    They get slapped with a 10% drop on the open and that’s out of character? I expected more of a drop, considering equities were also getting pounded.

  66. fubsy_cooter

    I haven’t read today’s comments yet, so i may be redundant, but I am wondering why people are so quick to jump in with added positions? Why not wait for a reversal? I mean, the most you risk is a couple percent, but you get to enter with the knowledge that there is a clear stop just a couple percent below your entry.

    By entering today, one is blind. By that I mean that there is no way to know how far below us the stop will end up being. Could be 1/2% or 8% (choose an arbitrary number). Point is, I’m feeling very patient waiting for the market to tell me when to enter, but it seems that a vast majority are just wanting to jump in at any sign of weakness as if the pms cannot have a sustained correction. Look at the recent runup. PMs can give back half of that without being concerning. I don’t think they will, but I guess I’m trying to say that waiting for the market to show its hand offers the best odds for a great entry IMO.

    Fubsy

  67. Jayhawk

    I’m actually not that worried. I looked at my account balance and was like ho-hum, whatever. It was way up there a few days back, I’m sure it will rally again very soon. I should have bought more on the options side. Poly-you like to play on the edge a bit. What ticker, month and strike are you stalking?

    I got some April SLW 44’s today.

    Traderlady-

    Whatcha buy today?

  68. fubsy_cooter

    Also, for those of you feeling the beginning of panic at this drop and wondering if the C-Wave is over, I would say that’s good. You are feeling a change in sentiment, which is exactly how daily bottoms serve the bull. They shake out weak hands, and cleanse positive sentiment. Remember, the bull runs quickest anf furthest with the fewest riders on its back.

    Ole!

  69. jeff

    jay

    not sure if it was a good thing but i flattened my accout at 1330 and replaced them with 1440 calls. just to hold the spot and still be long. i guess i locked in some proffits. now i went long at 1404 and 1408. at this point im ahead so i guess it was a good stratagy

  70. Shalom Bernanke

    Fubsy,

    It could be that miners head lower, but I like to buy after a few days down and into a large pukeout like we had today, regardless of what happens the next day or two. It’s not like I picked a price and bet the whole wad on one trade. I’ve been adding to a winning trade on pullbacks, and after today’s buys I’m at 80% looking to put the rest to work. I like to keep a positive mark so size accordingly.

  71. Shalom Bernanke

    Veronica,

    You’re opinions and signals are not a distraction just because they occasionally go against the grain around here. I think the reason we call some people out is their delivery. There’s nothing wrong with sharing what you see, IMO. It’s when fellas like hammy step all over themselves to brag they were right about yesterday that makes them a good whipping post. πŸ™‚

  72. Avann

    Traderlady … I did the same today … I picked up HZU near the bottom today and sold near the top.
    I still have everything I had before today. If this goes lower I’m ready and if we get the swing low I will commit the rest with a firm stop at the cycle low.

  73. Poly

    Jay,

    I’ve gone “conservative” by my standards, LOL.
    But i did substantially raise my leverage today. Got the very lows of the day, let’s hope they are the lows for the cycle, that would be nice.
    I’m only in SLV July’s, primarily in $25 and $30’s (75% of position) and the rest in the $35 and $40. Was looking for a lottery play, but didn’t get it.

  74. blammo

    I didn’t think Gary would be writing a report after such an uneventful day…

    πŸ˜‰

    I cannot imagine being 140% invested. As it is, I have trouble sleeping with 70-80% invested.

    I have to admit those Hammy posts are funny – anyone who refers to themselves in the third person is fair game as far as I’m concerned.

    I also day traded today (gasp!). Bought HZU and SLW (when Gary did) and sold when they started rolling over. Took some of the sting out of today.

    I like the buy and worry comment – so true.

  75. Wes

    I sort of wish you guys hadn’t chased Hammy off. He removed his post before I had a chance to read it, but I’m guessing it was pretty offensive.

    But he seemed like a good short term market timer, and they are hard to find. I enjoy making small short term trades around a larger position and welcome new information.

    Anyone know what name he posts under over at Kitco?

  76. Jayhawk

    Harvard has an awesome track record of producing top business minds like Ben Bernanke. You should for sure send the kiddies there.

  77. Avann

    Wes … it wasn’t really that offensive … he was just gloating a bit … kind of an “I Told You So Post” … like we didn’t see this coming.

  78. gold silver

    The USD is looking to rally…unless it turns down right away, we might have a curve ball…the weakness in miners is a tell and concerning..

    we need to be careful here and lock our profits

  79. Wes

    Thanks ddn3f and blammo. The link you referenced ddn3f says you need to be invited.

    Do you know how that works ?

  80. ALEX

    Jayhawk

    Arent you usually the one thats supposed to call out the ‘tail’ on the bottom of Gold and Silvers candle today? πŸ™‚

  81. Avann

    gold and silver … you may be right … the D-Wave is definitely in the cards.
    I hope you’re all in cash … that’s the safest bet right now.

  82. Ryan

    Terrill nice summary but don’t give out all the goodies on the newsletter. We’re all so anxious to read it so make sure only subscribers get the info πŸ™‚

  83. Avann

    No that won’t help … I can’t even get to the main page.
    I should have at least loaded the letter before I gave notice πŸ™

  84. ALEX

    Hey Terrill

    I’m not speaking for me, but from past experience…

    If you think any subs might be touchy about that info on this blog,where non-subs can read it.. you cab always go back and delete them .

  85. Avann

    Terrill … please take no offence … you haven’t said anything of significance but remember this blog is a public blog … try not to post anything that Gary may consider worth the price of subscription.

  86. Ryan

    Terrill,

    I think you might want to delete those posts, not too long ago, Gary did mention there should be less subscriber info on the public blog.

  87. ALEX

    I want to try to re-iterate my post at 1.00 p.m. today πŸ™‚

    It wasnt the ‘action ‘ or ‘sell-off’ today that had me comment.

    I was merely saying I didnt like what I saw today when I compared the July to Nov part of the c-wave , to the Feb to now, based on GDX, HUI, GDXJ , etc STRENGTH -WISE.

    Like, this is to be the STRONGEST IMPULSE of the entire bull market, but by comparison…aUG to NOV seemed stronger.

    I am all in ( no leverage yet), I am Bullish. I am not a skittish trader…I went all in Jan 25th and posted it on this blog, and never got off the bull.

    clarity!! πŸ™‚ Peace out! Our 4 the nite

  88. ALEX

    Blogger Terrill said…

    Let me know how I can take it out, and will if need be.

    March 10, 2011 4:54 PM

    on your own comments, you can see a little trashcan at the bottom of the post , it will delete your posts, if you wish. Your call. πŸ™‚

  89. Avann

    Alex … this is only the first daily cycle … presumably there’s at least 1 probably 2 more … For a first cycle I think it has been fairly impressive.

  90. ALEX

    AVANN

    I agree , my account gains are crazy good,

    my observation was how HUI and GDX etc busted down and closed below 20sma , and even the 50sma this time. Last time they didnt..so again, I was just pointing out a weakness in THOSE areas. Also the lower low in HUI.

    But AGQ and SIL GLD…looking great! I just wanted to share that observation and get feedback ( but some thought I was calling a D-Wave?? I’m fully in πŸ™‚

  91. Avann

    I’m O.D. on HZU (Canada’s AGQ) so I don’t even pay attention to the miners … other then a few individuals. I just track Silver … and the slope from Jan to now is very impressive. Maybe one that even Gary can’t climb :).

  92. ALEX

    BUT ya know what AVAAN

    When HUII did dip below the 50sma in October, it shot straight up from there a bit later..

    So , shut my mouth πŸ™‚

    Out 4 the nite (again)

  93. Driver

    Hi Gary,

    I went short the SPX & NDX at the close of 2/28 based on my model’s signals at the close of 2/27. (Next day trade.) So far so good. I’m expecting a bounce but I’m going to be holding unless I get a buy later tonight.

    As far as the PMs, I’m following your guidance, although I couldn’t bring myself to add more to my position today. Probably not a good decision. (We’re leaving to go home tomorrow morning from LV.)

  94. jeff

    aggggggg
    no comment on the dollar. it looks like a steady climb to me
    on the 5 min
    on the 10 min
    on the 30 min
    hr
    day ect
    i know i know. bernicky dinky and the 3 year cycle low
    i just want to know how to read into the move.

  95. Avann

    When get jittery I just go to Eric Kings site for a little Valium.
    With gold weakening, today King World News conducted a rare audio interview with the legendary Jim Sinclair. When asked about the action in gold today Sinclair remarked, “If you would analyze what happened today in terms of economic figures, market sentiment and the action of traders, you’ve got to come to the conclusion that gold is not going to do much more than be violent around the $1,400 level…You’ve got to see that above and below $1,400 is just the same as $1,300, just the same as $1,200 and by God when you see it at $1,500 and $1,600 you’re not going to believe the violence that’s going to go on around the round numbers.”
    “So I would say to any of our audience who is interested in gold, who’s trading gold, who’s buying insurance in gold, that if you analyze what happened today, you’ve got your guarantee that gold will trade at $1,650 and probably an awful lot higher.”

  96. Brian

    Wes, I didn’t get the feeling Hammy was a great timer. In his last post. He did indeed say gold was a sell, unless it went up and then it was a buy, but if it didn’t go up or down it was a hold.

    That is why you are seeing the hammysammich posts. I commented at the time that he used many words to say nothing…..

  97. basil

    It definitely looks like there is a lot more downside in the stock market, regardless of whether there is a bounce now or not. When I look at the charts of the US indices it doesn’t look healthy. Equally, the commodities in general don’t look promising right here. I can only hope that silver, in the face of all of that can still manage to rally into a still far away C wave top. I sure would like to keep my profits.

  98. TheBookGuy

    If you guys are worried, think of how the everyday guy is feeling. This is the bull trying to shake us out. I’m going to sit tight, I think we’ll see new highs in a week.

  99. fat boy

    Well I did add today agq 195 slw 141
    We,ll see 125% in now
    feeling slimmer after today’s drop but seen worse and expecting worse
    same drop tomorrow would have me smiling or is it a grimace ?

  100. fat boy

    Well
    Started with
    Agq at 78
    Slw at 9

    So on a punters back test old turkey would have been best instead of being an in and out burger
    What do you think hammy ?

  101. Wes

    Brian,

    You may be right about Hammy, but the overbought timing chart he posted for silver (I think when he first came on here) shows promise.

    Also, he bailed at a correct time. Apparently he is still not back in yet, so we’ll see how that works out.

  102. Slumdog

    SB:”It’s when fellas like hammy step all over themselves to brag they were right about yesterday that makes them a good whipping post.”
    This Hammy is ersatz. Imposter, and while funny, the real guy has racked up 700% over the past 12 months and he’s smart, but not consiste ntly followable as he zigs and zags often. His reads of the markets are impressive.

  103. Slumdog

    We will hit the 35.66 on the dynamite triangle. After that, it’s a low probability of a rise above that. It’s 35.41 now.

  104. Brian

    Wes, I gave up trying to time because unless you are trading futures the market always leaves you behind. That is why the cycle work here is so nice. The problem with cycles, as Gary has pointed out many times, is they don’t spot tops well.

    With the COMEX opening an hour before the NYSE, it is very difficult to enter things like AGQ or SLW after big gaps up.

    Far and away the best thing I have learned about buying PM’s is to do it while they are falling in price.

  105. Brian

    Slumdog, If Hammy was making that kind or return, he wouldn’t have had time to make 10,000 posts at Kitco. Nor would he have to come over here to advertise himself, as he would be the talk of the town. We would have all heard of Hammy long ago if he had something great going on.

    Call me a doubter, but I have earned that.

  106. Gary

    Folks it’s time to keep your heads about you. We knew that gold was due for a pullback into a daily cycle low. It’s no surprise we are getting it. Ignore the charts. That is completely worthless information that isn’t going to help you ride the bull.

    This was an extremely right translated daily cycle. That is the hallmark of a powerful intermediate rally. It’s now very late in the timing band for the daily cycle to bottom. We should put in the bottom any day now. It may have even occurred today.

    Remember what I told you the sharks are going to try and get your shares. They know that most retail traders trade off charts. They will try to break the charts in order to get you to liquidate.

    The only thing we really need to watch is the dollar. Once it rolls over and breaks that November low all hell is going to break loose in the commodity markets.

    The stock market is now broken as it has violated the prior cycle low. However shorting stocks is going to be very very tough to do as this break occurred early in the daily cycle.

    Normally that would lead to a wicked crash type event except sentiment isn’t very bullish. So the move down will likely be a very drawn out grind with every marginal new low greeted by a violent rally as the Fed pumps billions and billions into the market in the vain attempt to prop everything up.

    Unfortunately liquidity will just leak out of the stock market and end up in the commodity markets.

    This is exactly what happened in 08. The stock market had already entered a bear market. Ben started printing like mad to abort the decline but the liquidity wouldn’t stay in the stock market. It rushed right into the energy markets which just made the problem that much worse.

    The same thing is going to happen now. If stocks start to erode Ben will crank out more and more billions but it will just leak into commodities causing higher and higher inflation and ultimately a dollar crisis.

    Everything is setting up perfectly for the final massive C-wave explosion.

  107. RA

    @AMoldyHamsammich…

    I just saw your post at the top of the blog page – Brilliant! LOL!

    Why do I get the feeling you are the Poster Formerly Known As MLIL?

  108. jeff

    gold futures 10:30 and 1417 steady climb =) this time of night you will usually see it move. slow steady mmmmm i think its nice

  109. jeff

    gary

    i showed the wife the account and that you have me on the right track. she said she was willing to get her money out and move it into a money market account. now i just have to get her to buy agq.
    thankyou soooo much for everything

  110. thedocument

    I doubt Feb 24 was a daily cycle low for stocks. I’m not going to get into all the details here, but consider that if 2/24 were a low, it was the end of a extremely right-translated cycle and should have been followed by a cycle that set a higher high. Since this obviously is not the case, the last 10 sessions are more likely an extension of the same cycle that contains 2/24. I know there are exceptions, but like I said, I have other reasons for believing a cycle low was set back in January, not in late February. So we need a little more weakness before we can confirm an intermediate decline. That said, I do believe such a decline is underway.

  111. AMoldyHamsammich

    RA-

    Yes, Hammy is formerly MLIL. I’m a regular poster who has way too much time on my hands and posts this stuff from the wife’s laptop. All in fun and an attempt to lighten up the mood from time to time. MLMT has been a good sport, Hammy had it coming. He was posting the bragging stuff on Turd’s blog too and deleted all of his comments. I’m fine with his short term calls. However, the 3rd person stuff makes me chuckle so I like to exaggerate stuff as you can see.

    PS. 700%. I want to see confirmed numbers via a Profit.ly validated account before I believe any guy on the internets saying stuff like that.

    Go Old Turkeys.

  112. Gary

    πŸ™‚ When I see someone bragging about making 700% I know we are talking about someone who isn’t going to be around 5 years from now and probably not even 1 year from now.

  113. Brian

    To Hammys credit, I never saw him write about his returns here. Slumdog posted that 700% number, but they could be the same person. That being said, if someone isn’t very humble after a return like that, they are sure to end up like Gary said, most likely broke.

  114. Jayhawk

    ALEX-

    If there were any tails, I’d point em out! Really, not many buyers came in there. Maybe Friday. Not losing hope yet.

    Good words from Jesse-

    http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2011/03/gold-daily-and-silver-weekly-charts_10.html

    And before we all walk around with puss faces about the ‘losses’ from the heights of our recent gains in the metals, keep in mind how well we all are doing overall.

    A smackdown in the metals keeps our heads from growing too big for our bodies to hold up. The gains are always due to our genius of course, and the ‘losses,’ well those must be due to bad advice from somewhere else, or some similarly irrelevant superstitious thing. We seek to explain the ups and downs where the explanation is so obvious: things go up and down, and never straight up. Is the primary trend broken? Not yet. Have the fundamentals changed? No, not at all.

    To be strong you have to own your trades. I had to learn this lesson the hard way, and chances are you will too. The greatest curse is an early and easy success, and the euphoria of thinking we are greater than we really are.

    This is why it is better not to be a trader, because you cannot afford the dues, and if you are successful, you will see the darker sides of human nature and face temptations that are almost overwhelming, especially in times of general apostasy.

    Take your positions and hold them, without leverage, and with realistic expectations. And then go do the things that you are well suited to do, and address the needs of your family and your friends, and enjoy what you have, the gifts of life and God’s tender mercies. And when you need the occasional wake up call, He will provide that too.

  115. Gary

    The kind of leverage it takes to make 700% is the kind of leverage that destroys accounts in the blink of an eye when you miss several trades.

    And since no one is ever going to get every call right and every single person will eventually have a streak of losers using that kind of leverage always eventually ends in a blown out account.

    There are never any exceptions. In the long run it’s just not possible to beat the odds.

  116. Mission

    Hey Gary, I’m curious as to why you went out to June to buy calls. If you’re expecting a big move here (and I am in total agreement btw), why not a closer strike date?

  117. Gary

    Because I want to minimize time decay. I expect to sell them a couple of months before expiration so they should still have plenty of time value in them unless they are so deep in the money that all the time value has vanished. (hopefully)

  118. Bob loves Hawaii

    Mr. Miyagi, I am mostly April, as there are few May options for the stocks I am in. I will roll to May after OE closes next weekend, and for those I am in the money, I will roll up as well as out.

    45-60 days out is ideal if you are long options.

  119. wmp

    Gary,

    Great weekend report.

    I noticed you’re now including the disclaimer about trajectory vs price level on the SPX chart, which is good for new subs that may not have heard you repeat that in the past. Just for perspective, where would you expect the SPX to bottom in April?

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