TRACKERS IN THE ALPS

The travel and accommodation details for the next “trackers” trip to Zermatt Switzerland have been posted to the website.

 

780 thoughts on “TRACKERS IN THE ALPS”

  1. DG

    re miners vs. AGQ:
    Thanks SB and all. I am much more short-term than you, SB, and am just looking at the next 1-2m months of C-wave completion. Their margins may hold, but if people see oil zooming the buyers for the juniors may back off at least some. I may keep some as a toy but expect to switch. Today’s slight out-performance is probably that they got crushed yesterday. Interesting.

  16. pimaCanyon

    Wow, what a mountain. You can see the trails in the green meadows below the rock and ice.

    Gary, will the meadows be melted out in June?

    I’ve done a lot of hiking and some climbing in the North Cascades in Washington State. The alpine meadows there don’t melt out till early to mid-July most years, late July some years. The climate there is different than that of the Alps. Alps is continental, North Cascades is maritime with the Hawaiian high pressure system dominating the summer weather starting.

    June might even be more lovely than the picture would suggest, probably snow patches here and there as the meadows are melting out, flowers coming up thru the snow (glacier and avalanche lilies do that in Washington State)

  19. Gary

    I’m going to take one of the less traveled routes. I’ve heard the normal route gets clogged with traffic and you spend most of your time waiting.

  20. Gordon Brown

    Tony Blair, John Prescott and I regularly ski Zermatt. It is a fantastic spot. There is glacier to ski in early June and some down hill mountain biking which big John particularly likes!

  22. Edwin

    something to note for juniors and mining in general first half.

    though they are leveraged to the cost of the metal, they are of more risk.

    after q1, the jrs are dumped like a hot potato because news releases and financing has been done for the year in Q4. no catalysts to spark them.

    remember a lot mining corps are offer little to no incentives for big institutions to hold long term, it’s the big paying dividend players that still get the biggest cash inflow when people think equities are “in”.

    i prefer the metal less complicated. when it becomes seasonal for gold and ala a, c waves add leverage if you want to trade.

    just my take on this

  25. Edwin

    i consider jr’s a lottery ticket. they obviously have more growth potential reason why the big guys will eat them like pacman. but how would you know which one to pick unless you’re in the know 😉

    control risk, not too greedy, i think we’ll all come out ahead.

  28. Shalom Bernanke

    Edwin,

    My point was that all miners exploded on the day FRG was taken over. For the record, I don’t think it’ll matter much which vehicle we’re in, and in fact I owned/traded DGP (2x gold, similar to AGQ) primarily for the first half of 2010 and it also worked as expected. My focus more on miners this round is that as the bull matures, miners can still make great gains while metals go sideways (at elevated levels).

    For example, if silver hits $45 and stays around there for awhile, miners will still be growing earnings.

    Either way, long pm’s is the place to be adn the rest is just splitting hairs. 🙂

  30. DG

    Gary: I have been to Zermatt. It is staggeringly beautiful–you’re going to have a wonderful time. I was there right after high school, so a “few” years ago. I highly recommend staying at the Salzgaberhaus…if you like sleeping in a big room on the floor on straw mats with ten other people. Hey I was 17!

  31. Robert

    I can’t get enough of the noise- Middle East, Japan, Nuclear, Apocalypse.

    Of course the only topic that matters is never discussed, the dollar. All hail MOPE.

  34. pimaCanyon

    Reading about Zermatt, the town at the base of the Matterhorn:

    “The town of Zermatt remains completely free of internal combustion vehicles and can be reached by train only. (Electric vehicles are used locally).”

  38. Gary

    RB,
    That is a very important consideration. I may have to cancel the entire trip if Zermatt is burrito deficient.

  41. Aaron

    We didnt exactly rocket out of the June low either, and that was the IT low. Patience is key, if one is to ride this thing, yet the USD is def acting up here…

  44. Daniel

    Gary–
    Since we have eaked out lower today that means it will be easier to form a swing low tomorrow, correct? (On GOLD)

  45. Gary

    Japan isn’t going away over night. But it will eventually and it shouldn’t be long before the dollar gets back to moving down into the three year cycle low and gold gets busy finishing it’s C-wave advance.

    For the next week though traders will probably be better off just turning off their computers and doing something else.

  47. Gary

    Daniel,
    Gold would need to make a lower low than yesterday. About $1382 if I remember right.

    It’s not really close to that right now and it would probably take a dollar rally above 77.50 to do that.

    So I give it a 50/50 chance of making the lower low and easing the parameters for a swing.

  49. Poly

    All the markets clearly oversold. We get any indication that those reactors are going to make it through without significant issues, then ALL risk trades will rally for a few days like there is no tomorrow.

    BUT, watching that plunge today in realtime when that annoucnement came through gave me an idea that if there was a real meltdown on one of those reactors, we had the potential for a big 5% (equities) down day, maybe much more, towards 10%, IMO. I couldn’t imagine the drop in Silver if we did 5% the other day.

    Just thinking of possible contingencies, not expectations.

  53. DG

    Buy signal parameters have widened nicely. We can probably handle down 100 or so and still get it. C’mon—let’s get a little lift into the close. Then maybe good news overnight and, Bang! We’ll see.

  54. I've Eaten Silver

    Gary,

    What other primary activities do you have planned for the Switzerland trip besides the Matterhorn climb? I doubt you plan on visiting anywhere outside Switzerland on the 10-day trip, correct? I may diverge and go to Paris for a few days and would like to arrange that properly, BUT if the 10-days is jam packed with nice activities I’d have no problem staying in Chocolate Money land.

  55. pimaCanyon

    DG,

    Thanks for posting your signal!

    If today’s close confirms the signal–and it looks like it will–would you consider repurchasing your SIL shares?

    It’s likely if the overall market goes up (what your signal is calling for), then miners will likely go up along with the overall market.

  56. Gary

    I’d like to take the glacier express to St. Moritz one day and even though I’ve already seen Chamonix we might rent a car and drive over one afternoon. I will probably be two days on the Matterhorn at some point so those will be free.

  57. marinho

    Gary,
    it looks like we are going to have a very long daily cycle here in gold, unless either we go lower than 1380’s or higher by a lot 1430’s. Could this be a problem to get the final C wave in the allotted amount of time (i.e. top in the first week of may?) thanks

  59. Shalom Bernanke

    I still have just under 20% of capital to put to work, and if this weakness continues into tomorrow morning I’ll put it to work.

    After that, I’ll have to dip into margin to add. 🙂

  61. DG

    PC: You may have misunderstood me. I meant we can handle Dow down 100, not down an additional 100, so we need to rally from here which we may or may not do.

    I will not buy SIL back regardless, but will add to AGQ. SIL (and GDX and GDXJ, for that matter) has been a dog. That may or may not change but I see no reason to stick with SIL. AGQ is plenty volatile for me!

  63. Gary

    The end of April early May is just an estimate. This all depends on the dollar. when and if it decides to cave (and I think it will) things can get out of control rapidly. Besides gold is only 4 days past a “normal” cycle duration. It’s not like we’ve lost a month.

  65. Gary

    I’ll probably hire a guide although one of my climbing partners from here in Vegas is probably going also. He’s already done the Matterhorn though and probably doesn’t want to do it again.

  67. Jayhawk

    Any time the miners & metals would like to decouple from the overall market would be fine with me.

    I think that whole theory is being shot out of the water over and over.

  68. Shalom Bernanke

    Mr Miyagi,

    I’m not incredibly sure of anything except my plan and approach to trading a bull market. 🙂

    I have my stops and other than that I just have to let the bull do it’s thing. We’ll see.

  71. DG

    It sure doesn’t look to me like the dollar is putting in a bottom. I find it incredible that with a potential nuclear disaster the dollar is lower than where it was last Wednesday. Not much of a bottom! It should be skyrocketing instead. News is irrelevant. What is relevant is how an item reacts to the news and it is hard to believe a more bullish scenario for the dollar could develop. Given that it seem destined to tank, IMO.

  75. DG

    PC: Nope. Signal is generated at 4:00 ET. Anything can happen between now and then. I have been talking about likelihoods. If at the close things line up just right it is triggered. If not, not, though I can usually tell by 3:30 if it is possible or not.

  77. gold silver troll

    I’m too scared to even look at my account, but i think that I was up maybe 30-40% and now might be in the RED…oh well…

    looks like these black swan events are getting regular…

  78. Jayhawk

    Let’s see. Past five day’s performance-

    GDX -9.16%
    SIL -11.85%
    SLV -4.26%
    SLW -11.75%

    SPY -4.75%

    Looks like your safer in the overall market vs. getting raped in these miners.

  81. Jayhawk

    No hindsight needed. It’s a fact that in recent history, miners will bet pummeled during overall market sell offs. Miners act worse than the overall market actually.

  82. Jayhawk

    You guys are smart. I’m just a dumbass. If someone has a strategy to trade around these daily “wiggles” I’m all ears.

  83. Shalom Bernanke

    I had to pry the sell button off my computer just so I don’t get tempted to book what’s left of my profits.

    Unless stopped out, I hate selling into weakness in bull markets.

  86. Aaron

    Trading wiggles are tough thing to do.
    Personally I dont do wiggles simply because I hate paying commissions, and to top it off, I cant win all the time.
    I also dont trade stocks, as a matter of fact I only own 1 stock and its an explorer (my lottery).

  87. I've Eaten Silver

    Patience my friends. Most of you have 10,000+ days ahead in your lives. Within less than 30 or so things shall be swell. Big picture is key. Divergence of attention from noise makers also key. Stay busy my friends (and thirsty ;).

  88. Scooby Don't

    Shaggy said ‘Yikes’ and sold.

    I am still in though!

    Anyone seen Fred and Daphne? I bet they secretly lightened up in the mine(er)s. Pesky Kids!

  89. rapper

    Jay- I traded the daily cycle low last go around and I have to say I might be more comfortable doing that. I missed out on about 1500 bucks when all was said and done but I wasn’t sitting through this either. This is a good lesson for me. My plan this time was to ride it through and since my entry was good enough this time sitting hasn’t been an issue but if we continue to get new nuke news everyday about leakage and Tokyo is now empty the panic yesterday will seem mild.

  92. Edwin

    Jan low was an easier entry ..

    this dollar flush with this socio-econo environment is cause for some bouncy trading, remember Nov 8 to Jan 3rd. That was a nut job of a roller coaster. triple topping.

    Gold is one of the bull markets left though.

    But crap it helped when the equities were along for the ride too. Too bad they are hurting.

  93. Gary

    Here’s the thing in hindsight one could say it’s better to trade daily cycles but only because this particular cycle happened to include an earthquake. Absent the earthquake the daily cycle low might have amounted to two or three very mild down days that one wouldn’t be able to time the bottom of anyway.

    In real time it’s almost almost a huge mistake to try and time the daily cycles in a final C-wave rally.

  94. Moneyman

    Earlier Gary told us that this bullmarket will be hard to ride..I didnt understood what he meant but I do now..

    Its hard to stay in when the market is volatile..

  95. MrMiyagi

    I told my mom to sell all her mutual funds and go into cash yesterday.
    I feel better, she’s 67, she can’t afford to lose her life savings.

  96. ALEX

    jayhawks

    look at real time charts of today , 5 minute and 15 min 3 days

    you will feel better , they are buying it back (after gap closed from this morning)

  98. ALEX

    I;m looking at GPL and AG for example.

    1 day (today intra day) on 5 minute interval. looks like good buying 🙂

  100. Edwin

    Gary,

    how much downside do you think? i’m thinking another daily cycle then a launch from April fools, gold should be around 1350.

  104. Vonda

    OMG, I’m so glad I have a dissertation to write as a distraction. Every time I check in, I just miss one of the dips. I never thought I’d say writing this sucker would be a sane thing to do, but relatively to watching the market . . .

  105. ...at ease

    MrMiyagi … glad you took care of your Mom. No she can’t afford to lose her life savings. I can’t get my Mom out of CDs, she says the market is gambling. Right now, it sure feels that way.

  106. Bob loves Hawaii

    The Japanese are ready to connect a new powerline the Nuke plant. Iffthey reenergize the coolant pumps, katy bar the door on the rip we will get overnight.

    Jayhawk, send me a comment on my blog, I will share with you my hedging that is definitely smoothing out this daily cycle for me.

  107. MrMiyagi

    ..at ease…
    Her funds went on a steep dive in 2008, luckily they recovered and made gains but after reading Gary’s GET OUT!, I figured it’s time.

  108. ...at ease

    yes, I lost big in 2008, I never did regain all of mine, but last year, happened to run into someone who was an options trader and she said just put it in gold and I will do fine. By fall of 2010, I was hooked on gold. So had been looking for someone to guide me through the cycles (didn’t know that prior) ups and downs. I found SMT early Feb and added silver and on the ride now with the bull. I will say it is volatile and I am used to getting in and out more, so staying in is taking some years off my life with this ride.

  113. Gary

    Edrwin,

    There won’t be a daily cycle lower and then higher again. Intermediate cycles don’t work that way.

    If a daily cycle breaks below a prior cycle low it almost always means an intermediate decline has begun. Once gold puts in the daily cycle bottom it shouldn’t get broken and the next leg up in the C-wave will be on.

    That’s why I say it’s kind of meaningless to pick a level and place a stop. It’s often just a guaranteed loss because the only level that has any meaning in volatile markets like the PM are daily cycle pivots.

    They are the only levels that will act as a true stop and if broken have true meaning.

  114. DG

    Jay: YOu need to compare SLV to AGQ, not silver. SLV and AGQ are in sync.

    Looks like to buy signal as we have not gotten a rally. If we rally 50 points in the next 15 minutes I will post, otherwise no buy. Sigh. Tomorrow starts a fresh clock so no anticipation possible.

  117. Gary

    yes BB trade on the S&P, QQQQ, and HUI.

    We had a BB trade signal on GLD and SIL yesterday that is still good for today.

  118. DG

    PC. No levels are involved. Just sit tight. I promise to post (but we are not getting that rally, so no go anyway) It’s based on the dovetailing of several items so there is no way to figure it out, but I can often tell that if we rally some of the items will wind up where they need to. The Dow level (except up or down) is irrelevant.

  119. DG

    No chance for a signal today as the late day fade killed it. That of course does not mean we won’t rally from here, just that the signal makes it a great bet. I bought a tiny bit of DFJ at 38.0—perhaps because I am nuts, but if the world doesn’t end over there this thing is CHEAP

  120. ...at ease

    I am so glad I am not attempting to do this alone. I don’t think I would have lasted and not pulled the trigger a few times out of panic!

  121. Jayhawk

    This just in-

    WASHINGTON (AP) — The chief of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission says all the water is gone from one of the spent fuel pools at Japan’s most troubled nuclear plant. This means there’s nothing to stop the fuel rods from getting hotter and ultimately melting down.

    The outer shell of the rods could also ignite with enough force to propel the radioactive fuel inside over a wide area.

    Gregory Jaczko did not say Wednesday how the information was obtained, but the NRC and U.S. Department of Energy both have experts on site at the Fukushima Dai-ichi complex of six reactors.

    He says officials believe radiation levels are extremely high, and that could affect workers’ ability to stop temperatures from escalating.

  123. John

    (This might have been covered before.)

    I thought gold always rose during any negative world event.

    Looks like that changed….

    So where does the money go? – treasuries and wind power someone said.

    If they go into treasuries then the dollar would rise – like it did in 08, as people have to buy dollars to buy treasuries.
    That didn’t really happen.

    John

  124. Uatatoka

    Should have bought some shares of VXX last Friday. This natural/nuclear disaster is causing it to explode higher (no pun intended), just like the oil drilling disaster last year.

  125. pimaCanyon

    Geez, that is awful, jayhawk. Man, I feel so sorry for all people in Japan right now. We’re over here worrying about our PM trades watching numbers on a screen, and they are dealing with a life threatening situation, one that could affect millions. Let’s hope and pray they can figure something out that will prevent a meltdown and/or explosion.

  126. pimaCanyon

    John,

    Why do people have to buy dollars to buy treasuries? If I am an American and have an American account, I can sell stock and buy treasuries.

    If I’m a foreigner, I would sell stock, convert to dollars, then use the dollars to buy treasuries. So the net effect on the dollar would be zero, no?

  127. Aaron

    John thats a misconception, and the media keeps repeating this false pretense. Gold usually does not react positively in world events, it is NOT a safe haven, or it doesnt react that way immediately for sure.

  129. Gary

    I think anyone with a little commonsense can see that gold is a commodity that is sensitive to excess money creation.

    I guarantee no one is thinking I’m going to buy gold because I feel safer owning gold when world events are in turmoil.

    I know that thought never crosses my mind when I buy gold or silver and I’m pretty sure no one else is thinking that either.

    We all buy for the same reason. We expect prices to eventually go up. If the fundamentals support higher prices then eventually they will go up. And they will continue to go up until either the fundamentals change or a price level is reached where sentiment has reached a bullish extreme to such a degree that we run out of buyers.

    Once that happens gold undergoes a violent regression to the mean profit taking event.

    One needs to ask themselves have the events in Japan changed the fundamentals driving the gold bull? I would say if anything they have made it stronger.

    Have we seen a parabolic event take gold to the kind of stretched levels where sentiment becomes extreme and it is in jeopardy of a sharp regression to the mean correction.

    Nope, sentiment is dead neutral.

    So I have to assume that once this passes the fundamentals will take over again and drive gold into that final C-wave top.

  130. ...at ease

    News says we have to start checking our food now for radiation and will fuel inflation fears. Does anyone know a good geiger counter company name?

  131. Silverman

    My understanding is that a meltdown is not as ominous as it sounds from a health risk perspective and that a meltdown does not implicitly mean that there will be an explosion. That said, if there is an ignition and expulsion of radioactive material into the atmosphere then all bets are off.

  134. $store

    I can now comment on your lovely trip that is coming up since the market is now close. Have a great time.
    I have been to that part of the world a couple of times skiing. Best holiday ever. Breath taking!!

  137. Ryan

    I know a lot are saying if you’re not leveraged then there’s no worry of a margin call. But I’m wondering if it’ll be safe to hold AGQ/HZU if we continue to keep going lower. Anybody holding these concerned about decay factor?

  140. Gary

    Ryan,
    You would only have to worry if you think gold’s intermediate cycle has topped after only 6 weeks.

    I don’t see any sign of that at the moment. On the contrary I’m astounded at the incredible strength silver has shown all during this correction.

    Does anyone else realize silver is only a little over $2.00 off all time highs and holding far above the 50 DMA despite everything that’s happening in the world.

    This thing is set up to explode once the selling pressure is released.

  141. Ryan

    at ease,

    What are your plans? Are you planning on just holding through the pain (potentially more) even if they’re underwater?

  144. Skooter

    I guess I’m somewhat confused. The dollar is at 80.69 but yet they say as the dollar rises, gold will drop by 3%. So then why is gold/silver and the dollar all dropping together now? We were to pull out at 78.82 and the low was 79.25.
    Has pulling the trigger changed?
    (I’m twitching right now in the red)

  145. ...at ease

    ryan said: “What are your plans? Are you planning on just holding through the pain (potentially more) even if they’re underwater?”

    Riding the bull to the top of the C wave until Gary says get out.
    … and mine are already way underwater as I only started buying back a few weeks ago on dips.

  147. Skooter

    My bad…I was looking at USDJPY=X @80.7150

    Should have looked at DX-Y.NYB @76.64

    Nerves got the best of me today like everyone else…

  150. Ryan

    Gary,

    I don’t think gold’s intermediate cycle has topped but I’m just concerned that what’s happening over in Japan has changed things up a bit (my heart goes out to everybody’s family there).

    I’m worried that there may be more selling pressure before we can resume the c-wave. I know another bad day and I’ll be in the red. It’ll be really hard for me psychologically for me since I would have gone from flying head to deep in the red. It’ll definitely be hard for me to hold on or even add with the rest of my dry powder once I’m in the red. I did manage to add yesterday which turned out to be early.

  154. Gary

    Folks prepare yourselves for gold to make a lower low in the next few days. I’m not saying it will happen for sure, but it will ease the parameters for a swing and make putting in a cycle bottom easier.

    If you are getting too emotional at this point then you need to either reduce position size or turn off your computer for the next week and do something else.

  158. TZ(4404)

    Gary, when I say spammer what they do is lock my account and ask me for a phone number (which is not something I desire to provide to post on an internet blog).

    It forces creation of a new account each time.

    There is nothing you can do. It’s a google thing. It happens based on how many and what kind of links you put in a post. kingworldnews dotter com is what knocked me out last time.

  159. TZ(4404)

    Gary, as before I disagree and say gold won’t violate the low yesterday.

    That was a solid low from my view (and based on a system I have) (unless japan causes everything to meltdown – which is a black swan that not much can be done about).

    We’ll see.

    The dollar dropping hard right now is gonna help my case greatly when gold opens in 30 min.

  160. TZ(4404)

    No news yet on why the dollar is collapsing against yen. Perhaps they have cracked and finally indicated the selling of our treasuries to pay the bills.

  161. Gary

    TZ,
    What you are saying is that you believe yesterday was a cycle low. If it was then yes you are right it won’t get violated. I’m just not sure it was yet. I need to see something that suggests it was the low like a swing or at least some pretty strong upside action.

    If the dollar cycle fails that would go a long way towards confirming golds cycle low especially if gold rallies hard.

  166. Gary

    DG,
    Well we’ve been expecting it all along so I can’t say I’m surprised 🙂

    The next and final target is the November pivot.

  170. DG

    Thanks, Blammo. So the dollar is not crashing (because it is now flat against a basket). The Yen is surging. GLD in the after-market is barely reacting.

  178. Todd

    Gary,
    Does this after hours action in the USD count (new low 76.06) or does it have to happen when the market is open?

  182. Poly

    Ryan,

    Gold/Silver are priced in dollars, but it’s still subject to demand like any other asset. Whatever gains related to the currency depreciated are obviously being more than compensated by the selling of the asset.

  183. Skooter

    “Ryan: Can someone explain what’s going on, if the USD dropped so much, how come silver and gold is dropping as well?”

    That was an earlier question of mine.

  184. ...at ease

    Of interest when I talked to my bullion broker today, he said a lot of margin calls are coming in where people have to sell their gold. He said Gold is the quickest most liquidable asset to cover the margin calls. He said you must vbe doing good if you are buying while others are selling.

  185. DG

    Man, you guys are in an alternate universe. The dollar against a basket of currencies is down .07%. That’;s why gold is not moving against it—nothing is happening! Please show me where you see the dollar “plunging” except against the yen?

  186. Josh

    Ryan,
    Based on the anxiety in your posts, you may be trading too large, above your emotional skill level, so to speak. That’s another way of saying that you entered positions without fully understanding and accepting your risk. Been there, done that, and I guarantee you that every trader on this board has done the same thing at one time or another.
    The bull may bail you out on this trade, he may not. Either way, the only thing in this game you can control is your risk. If you’re not doing that you will eventually lose money. Part of managing risk is knowing how you will react to losses and sizing your positions accordingly.
    Gary isn’t going to control your risk – he will tell you how he controls his own risk. His stops are at the IT lows for gold. If you don’t have his entry, you may not want to rely on his risk management plan.
    Sorry if this is off the mark, but I went through a similar experience not long ago and I know it’s no fun. Best of luck to you.

  188. bamster

    Ryan,

    I think it has something to do with the USD/YEN. Its to complicated to explain but if someone is able to, please go ahead.

  189. DG

    Thanks, Poly. .34% is hardly a plunge. Gold does not have to rally based on that “collapse” (which has now been cut to .144%) Hardly a mystery here.

  191. Nintendo78

    The Day The Yen Carry Trade Died
    Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/16/2011 17:59 -0400

    While everyone is staring in disbelief at the USDJPY, the real carry action is in the high yielding-YEN pairs, i.e., the development, high growing countries. And it’s a massacre: ZARJPY, NZDJPY, AUDJPY – all are plunging far more than the USD. This is nothing short of a complete carry trade unwind. The implications: the cheapest recurring source of funding for risk assets – the Yen carry trade, is over. Those who managed to sell early on are lucky. The rest will get such an onslaught of margin calls tomorrow they may need to access the discount window (if Primary Dealers and the luckier banks). Many will be forced to sell assets to satisfy collateral requirements as ongoing sales of carry pairs push the Yen ever higher, and force ever more liquidity out of the market. And if the Yen carry trade is done, the question is when will the USD, which has also been a carry currency for some time, follow suit. And, once again, the most troubling observation is that the BOJ has not intervened. Our sinking feeling is that after pumping 50 trillion or so in money markets, the petty cash may be running quite low. In any case, ES opens in 2 minutes. Grab the popcorn now.

  192. Poly

    DG,

    I made no mention to gold.

    2nd, it settled at .35% down, “plunged earlier”. It went from 76.7 to 76.05 in 10 minutes, sorry, that’s a plunge.

  194. Nike Boy2008

    Hi Gary,

    We’re going old turkey here with the belief that the USD is going to tank..

    the USD just took out the previous low at 76.12 and gold seems to be going down with it.

    does our theory still hold?

    or is this all just emotion trading…

  195. Ryan

    Thanks for the replies guys. I think Josh is right, I started off small and then got greedy and kept on adding on the way up. Now the daily swings have become pretty large and I have to admit it’s hard for me to control my emotions. I really don’t want to drop any of my positions either since I’ve held on for so long already. I will try to tough it out a little longer.

  196. Beksachi

    Kitco link here usually breaks into the two components on why gold/silver moves up or down:

    1) US $ impact

    2) Supply/Demand

    If data in the link below is correct, there is more selling going on- hence the drop in G/S prices despite US $ drop.

    But I will be damned- never expected the US $ to drop so fast (as Gary has been saying)- this break of support is expected to trigger a technical related waterfall….

    Still curious to see how the Japan nuclear situation factors in all this short term….

    http://www.kitco.com/kitco-gold-index.html

  197. Ryan

    at ease,

    Thanks, I use that site as well to watch along with the kitco app which is probably a bad thing since I see every ticker as it happens. I should just uninstall it lol.

  198. ...at ease

    Ryan, Just don’t sell out of fear. Keep your head. Gold and Silver is cyclical, we are just on the downside of the cycle. It will come back up as it is in a bull market that I believe is to run another 5 years.

  199. Poly

    The DXY plunge here was a YEN event, it’s up huge since the Asian open. That’s not to discount Gary’s 3 yr cycle work, just saying.

  200. Poly

    Ryan,

    If you’re up, don’t try to ride it out, you should consider selling back a little for comfort, you will feel MUCH better. If you’re that invested, you will make plenty with a reduced holding anyway.

  201. Vonda

    What an education this is for me.

    Nintendo, can I ask a dumb question? What is “ES” as in “ES opens in two minutes.” I could use some popcorn.

  202. fat boy

    well another down day

    hopefully we get a swing – i do have more leverage to add to get to gary’s level but holding off in comfort zone at the moment

    love to be riding back up to fat gold buddha again

  203. ...at ease

    When you bought in you committed yourself to the C Wave plan. Don’t be discouraged, the plan is coming together just as Gary has called it. If you get worried, go back and read the previous postings he has back to February where he says keep your head on your shoulders and don’t panic as you are going to see more money coming in than you can imagine. Don’t shoot yourself in the foot. Remember the plan, make yourself a detail check off list to focus on, so you are watching those factors instead of your balance dropping.

  206. fat boy

    oh come on mr gold silver troll
    give us a bit more astute analysis than that rather than just expressing fear as an analysis

    i was underwater (for 2010) for a bunch of the year and held tight if it works out again all to the gfood

  208. ...at ease

    gold silver troll,
    Gains? The only ones I have left are in gld in stocks and options. All my silver is deep in the red. Guess I can kiss my gains in gld goodbye tomorrow. 🙂

  209. Poly

    Ryan and “at ease”

    “Don’t be discouraged, the plan is coming together just as Gary has called it. If you get worried, go back and read the previous postings”

    These plan’s you talk about also clearly state to limit your risk, buy only what you’re comfortable with, do not use excessive leverage, etc etc.

    Nobody is doubting (least not me) the C-Wave and either is Ryan by holding through this. His problem his position size, nothing more.

  211. Nintendo78

    Vonda

    The ES futures market is based upon the S&P (Standard & Poors) 500 stock index, which is one of the stock indexes of the CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) in the US. The S&P 500 index is calculated using the prices of 500 large capitalization US companies. The ES futures market is traded on the Globex electronic trading system, 24 hours per day from 5:00 PM Central Time on Sunday night to 4:30 PM Central Time on Friday night. The ES futures market has a daily trading volume of approximately 1100000 contracts, and a daily price range of approximately 13 points (52 ticks).

  212. ...at ease

    Poly, I hear you. We all have to do what we are comfortable doing. Just reminding him to keep focused on the plan and not sell out of panic.

  214. Jayhawk

    Kiss the C-wave goodbye boys and girls.

    We were supposed to have a C-wave last Spring too.

    The last 2 years our biggest gains have come out of the summer intermediate cycle moves. I just cant seen an epic blow off top with the overall market in a full blown panic. I’m staying put for now, but margin calls will force mass dumping on gold & silver. Hope I’m wrong.

  216. Poly

    NO Jayhawk, dark side got you? Come back!

    I hear your concern, good reason why I have next to no miners. I know they do decouple from equities, but you don’t get superior performance out of miners in the midst of an intermiadate equities decline.

    As for what is going on, I believe all risk assets are just being caught in this panic wave. We will get a sharp counter rally shortly, likely tomorrow or intraday. It would make sense for bullion to decouple out of that rally.
    You’ve also got to expect at some point some time of policy response or annoucnement out of the FED that will propel this.

  218. Moneyman

    Very positive stuff on the board right now..

    Hmmm..I focus on the dollar and it is sick..

    If the dollar goes under 76 it will be interesting.

    I dont think that we are going much lower from here with the dollar collapsing.

  220. Natanarchist

    On the Swiss trip…man that sure sounds awesome. I doubt I will be able to make it. I have already committed the family to a vacation here in the profile pic for end of June. Going to be tough to convince the wife to take off for 10 days to Europe right before we head out to the Canadian rockies. Of course that could all change if we hit 50.00 in silver. Hopefully when the Trackers are in Swiss and we are twiddling thumbs in the D wave you guys will post some awesome pics for the rest of us.

  221. Uatatoka

    Only issue I see for PM’s is selling to cover margin calls in other investments in the short term. They have held up well so far even so…and will rebound eventually. It is a bull market after all.

  224. Gary

    Folks gold will eventually rise in response to a collapsing dollar but that doesn’t mean it has to do it immediately especially with panic in the markets.

    Nothing that is happening right now has anything to do with the fundamentals driving this C-wave.

    If you are getting so emotional that you can’t see that then you absolutely need to turn off your computer and do something else for a week or two. Otherwise you will just make an emotional mistake at the exact wrong time.

    I said in tonight’s letter that everyone should expect gold to make at least one more lower low. If you aren’t prepared for that then you either have too much leverage or you just need to turn off the computer.

  226. Gary

    On the positive side yesterday and today both have seen over 10,000 hits on the blog. Those kind of numbers only happen very close to bottoms.

  228. Gary

    Tops aren’t even close to that. This kind of action only comes from extreme fear.

    People are lost in emotion right now. They can’t visualize how this can ever end and of course they are looking at their portfolio value every 5 minutes. They are incapable of making rational decisions.

    This is the kind of stuff that forms bottoms when we just simply run out of sellers.

  230. Avann

    Silver never once dropped below the 20 DMA during the last cycle … we are substantially below it now and the 10 DMA has now turned down … which it did not do until the middle of January …. long after the end of the last cycle.
    I’m still patiently waiting to buy back the 50% I sold yesterday … but I’m beginning to think I may sell more tomorrow 🙁

  233. Gary

    Just as a hint, when you can’t resist the sell button any longer everyone else will be thinking the same thing.

    The odds will be high that when you finally give in that will mark the the bottom. (Unfortunately most novice and intermediate experience investors will end up selling into this) Then they won’t be able to pull the trigger again when the rally begins because of fear that a repeat decline might happen.

    And now you know how the bull bucks almost everyone off. It’s because for most people emotions are stronger than logic.

  235. ...at ease

    I remember that deer in the headlights feeling when I had profits over 3x the amount invested in my IRA and it dropped to 1/3 in value in one week. I kept thinking it was going to come back, be patient. It didn’t. I never did get it all back. So I feel their pain. I swore that would never happen again at least with me not knowing what happened or being prepared.

  236. gold silver troll

    i might sell tomorrow as well…this is like 2008 again…people were looking for that bottom that never came…

    on another thought, if gold tanks like this AH, I am wondering what it’s going to do after open tomm…might be a nightmare that I don’t want to be a part of

  238. pimaCanyon

    TZ,

    Has your opinion changed about yesterday’s low holding? Within the past hour gold nearly tagged the 78 percent retrace of the move up from yesterday’s low. Once a retracement goes that deep odds start to shift towards making a new lower low.

    Silver’s retracement has taken it well beyond the 78 percent mark, so IMO it’s very likely silver will print a price below 33.56, yesterday’s low in the May futures.

  239. Avann

    The problem I have isn’t so much watching it go down … the problem is more not having any cash to capitalize on the weakness … lesson learned … I will never be 100% invested again … always leave some dry powder for what may come.
    As for that 50% cash that I now have … I will use it sparingly and always leave some cash on hand.
    If by chance I find myself 100% invested again … I will take some profit hopefully before such events occur so I can capitalize on them.

  244. n1tro

    I don’t think this crisis is any different than previous ones. Only difference is that we now have the internet and mass media coverage making things seem like everything is going to hell in a hand basket. I wish I had more money to buy. 🙁 Greed is good.

  245. Shalom Bernanke

    Redwine,

    lol… I agree things make little sense these days, but if you sell your metals, stocks, etc, where will you put the money?

    Not only is holding Bernanke bucks a disaster waiting to happen, but the bank where you keep it could go up in smoke. 🙂

  246. Gary

    The reality is that silver is still just a little over $2.00 off all time highs. That can and likely will be recovered in one or two days when the selling pressure abates.

    This isn’t a credit market implosion. This is uncertainty over radiation. Folks humanity always finds a way to surmount any and every problem. This will be no different.

    Sooner or later (probably sooner) the Japanese will get the situation under control and the market will calm down and return to doing what it was doing before the earthquake.

  247. Gary

    Red,
    You have to ask yourself what is going to be the governments response to all of that?

    Print more money.

    I think that says it all.

  248. n1tro

    Red,

    If the world economy is going to the abyss, you want to have a fist full of USD during this period?! What you going to buy with your USD?

  249. Gary

    The world economy is most definitely not on the edge of the abyss. Your emotions are but the global economy is doing fine. Granted high commodity prices will eventually cause the next recession but that is a slow process not something that happens overnight.

    Heck gasoline is down 10% in just the last two weeks.

  251. Keys

    Everything that everyone is saying makes sense on both sides….I hate gold for all the good reasons and the bad. Gold in 5 years will be up, as for tomorrow who knows?

    And despite nuclear holocaust, the Japanese economy is in the crapper. On the other side, without Japan buying more US crap debt(needing money to rebuild), it will force the FED to print more.

  258. DG

    Just a few thoughts: There are two kinds of investing. Trying to “shoot the lights out” and make a killing, and trying to make a lot, but not huge. I am amazed at how many people on this blog are trying to make a huge killing. Nothing wrong with that but IMO it is then crucially important to know who you are and what you can handle emotionally, how disciplined you are, where you are in life and what your goals ought to be, etc. For myself, I am never all in. I have a pile of cash even now and like it that way. I will make 30-50% on my entire net worth if the C-wave happens as Gary has said and I am very happy with that.
    It takes a lot of losses and experience to really know where you stand with trading/investing, but don’t ever stop asking the question and looking in the mirror. If you line up what you are doing with who you really are you can do very well at this game. Any other alignment (due to fantasizing as to who you are and what you can handle) will lead to years of frustration and possibly large losses. But those losses help clarify who you are, you adjust your style, until the next big hit, and so it goes, so long as you keep getting more and more self-honest. The markets are like a heat seeking missile: they will find your weakness, home in on it, and blow you up. The need for vigilance at doing trading that takes those weaknesses into account is essential. Egoically denying them will kill you.
    My trading philosophy for the day…

  260. Gary

    Redwine,
    Since most of us still have large gains from the January bottom, I’m going to take a wild guess and ask if you ignored me about massive?

    we entered AGQ at around 130. It closed today at 185. Even accounting for the 6-10 points that we let pass while making sure the miners would join the party one should still be up 35-40%.

    Being up 35% doesn’t cause one to freakout and call the sky is falling.

  263. Avann

    I’m trying to stay optimistic …
    During the last cycle we had a high on Nov 08 ($29.34) and low on Nov 15 ($25.00) … I managed to hang on during that week and percentage wise it was much worse then this.
    2 weeks after that low silver was over $30.
    The only difference here is this feels like more then just a daily cycle correction because of all the bad news.

  264. n1tro

    I’ll get out of my leverage if one more “big thing” happens…ie. another quake sinking part of japan or another 9/11 Until then, I don’t see what the big deal is.

  265. jeff

    gary

    on the bb crash trade. when you buy on the open, ( not to be stupid, but..) buy the first one minuet on the open right?

  269. Gary

    Red,
    I was pointing out the percentage gains in AGQ. Sil and SLW have gotten dragged down a bit by the overall selling climax.

    I’m tyring to get people to take a deep breath and make logical decisions right now instead of just panicking.

    I’ve seen this kind of panic at virtually every single intermediate bottom and all of the more severe daily cycle bottoms.

    The reality is that absent the news from Japan this isn’t even a respectable correction. Gold is down 4%. That’s nothing. And silver is down $2.

    If it wasn’t for the media attention on Japan every single person here would be yawning or clambering to buy more.

    People are letting the news drive their emotions. Because the charts certainly aren’t screaming end of the world.

  270. jeff

    this year the dollar had a $2 ralley that lasted six days. duck, run, hide, the dollar is the massive bull on the lose. =) just kidding , but look at a daily chart, it kind makes you sad. like a doggy on the side of the road that got hit. will somebody just shoot it and get it over with

  274. mylifemytrade

    Cover order for remaining 50% of GC short from 1428 was hit. Since that was about 1 hour ago… now GC is 1392… you can consider I covered at 1392.

  277. Gary

    Jeff,
    Place a market order to buy at the open.

    Basil,
    gold would have to break below $1307. But even then the odds would be that we were looking at a long summer consolidation not a D-wave.

    A D-wave is an extreme regression to the mean event caused by a parabolic rally. We haven’t had that yet. I don’t think this C-wave will finish until we do.

  278. Arun

    Gary,

    Your quote is incorrect “The reality is that silver is still just a little over $2.00 off all time highs. “

    Gold is off 4.4% from its highs whereas silver is off 9.4%. Thats twice the loss. So, silver has shown more weakness. Its not “incredible reliable strength” as you say.

    I am not nitpicking but just stating fact.

    BTW, is there a plan to lock in evaporating profits? What if this daily cycle gets stretched by another 5-7 days and we go mid-1300s. Do we just get stopped out at 1310 or exit before then?

  279. Mission

    Gary what about the threat of QE in Japan? How does that affect PM’s? On the one hand, depreciation of the yen should cause appreciation of the US dollar, yet the depreciation of the yen should also add strength to the inflation/gold trade, right? So is this a tug-of-war worth fretting over or is a three year low a three low and nothing can get in the way of it?

  280. Gary

    We also haven’t had anything that looks like a three year cycle low yet.

    Once we do that will drive the C-wave finale, just like all big C-wave finales have been driven by a major move down in the dollar.

  281. Rob L.

    Gary,

    This may be a little of topic, but I want to learn about options. Why did you not buy your slw calls at the beginning of the intermediate cycle in late January but instead took a position at the end of the 1st daily cycle?

  282. Gary

    Arun,
    In pure percentages silver will always drop more than gold. I’m talking relative strength compared to what we should be seeing right now in the silver market.

    At any other time in the last 10 years this kind of selling pressure would have taken silver down 25-35%.

  283. Jayhawk

    This is not a normal daily cycle nor intermediate cycle. I think you are brushing aside a potential game changer with Japan. It’s not just the nuclear plants causing concern, it’s the dominos that are going to start falling in the currency & stock markets. The world’s number 3 economy is on the brink here…This is huge. Cascade of margin calls and panic selling could very well start happening soon.

  284. Gary

    Rob,
    That one is easy. I wasn’t sure we had the intermediate cycle low in place. If you remember it didn’t act like most other intermediate cycle lows. It didn’t have the normal fake out rally and second leg down.

    It didn’t dip below a critical support zone to trigger stops and let big money take a position.

    So I went with positions that didn’t have a time factor tied to them.

  285. Fung

    I have sold 1.2 of my AGQ today @190. AGQ dropped more after hours. Should I add back the 1/2 tomorrow? If so, any suggestion on the price? Thanks.

  286. Gary

    Jay,
    You desperately need to turn off your computer and do something else for the next two weeks.

    You are becoming too emotional. The last time I saw you like this was back in Feb. 10.

    Japan is not going to crumble. The global economy is not going to come to a screeching halt. Within a week or so Japan will get the reactors under control (probably sooner).

    Then the markets will get back to doing what they were doing before the earthquake hit.

    I’ve lived through 911, two wars, a tsunami in Indonesia, an earthquake in Haiti, a credit market and real estate implosion, an oil spill and now this. None of them caused the end of the world. When it’s all said and done this will come and go just like all the rest.

  290. sophia

    Gary,

    You seem to have learned with pain… I listened to the radio show few weeks ago. You said that you got burned thru the internet bubble…
    Could you please let me know how you recovered from that? How did you do it? How long did it take you to have a kind of decent portofolio again?
    Thanks for sharing your experience

  292. Gary

    Sophia,
    To begin with I didn’t have all that much money in the market during the tech bubble. I was just getting started in the investing business.

    My stock portfolio increased quite dramatically when I sold my businesses and retired. I also sold all my real estate at the top of the bubble.

    By then I had already learned most of the important lessons and I had a great bull market in energy to ride.

  294. Arun

    Gary,

    The past 3 daily cycles including this one is within 8-9%. Another daily in Nov & intermediate resulted in 15%. So, i disagree that this decline shows relative strength.
    24.95 22.84 8.46%
    29.34 24.98 14.86%
    30.75 28.01 8.91%
    31.27 26.87 14.08%
    36.75 33.57 8.65%

    So, its seems this is in line for a daily cycle correction. If it drops to 33 or below, then we got a problem. That kind of correction would signal an intermediate-level and this c-wave theory comes in question.

    I still think that brushing off as this $2 off highs is a stretch.

  295. Gary

    If silver drops to $33 it has nothing at all to do with an abnormal cycle.

    Do you understand what a selling climax is? It’s irrational selling to cover margin calls. It has nothing to do with fundamentals.

    You are trying to impose normal guidelines on a situation that is completely emotional.

  296. sophia

    I agree with Gary that it is becoming irrational and margin calls driven. The Dax has lost 12.5 % since the highs 4 weeks ago! As far as I know, the earthquake didn’t happen in Germany!!!

  297. Gary

    I’m not sure what the point of this is. If you want to freak out be my guest. If you want me to freak out with you, you’re wasting your time. I don’t do that anymore.

    If you think this is the end of the world and gold is going to tank into another 8 year cycle low only 3 years after the last one then sell. There’s no need to try and convince me or anyone else that your right and I’m wrong.

    But I think this sky is falling stuff is counter productive, especially to novice investors who are struggling to stay rational.

  299. jeff

    gary

    this is new to me ( ill speak for myself) ive gotten my ass clobered and have leared risk management over 2 years. I didnt make money but i didnt loose. the leverage and bad entry is the only thing hurting anyone at this point.
    manage your position . cut back but keep your core. good skill all. its not luck going to get you through this

  302. basil

    Gary,

    all selling events are emotional events. The validity or severity of a decline cannot be dismissed based on it being driven by emotions. Sell offs, corrections, crashes, D-waves are all driven by emotions. It’s not much comfort to say, well investors are just irrational and emotional. That’s simply the nature of the beast.

  303. james r

    Dollar is drifting lower.

    The Japanese are dumping water on the reactors by way of helicopter.

    And it should not be long the new power line will be available to pump water into reactants.

    I’m thinking sometime before the Euro markets open we will have better visibility on the crisis in Japan.

    James

  305. sophia

    Nitro, you are playing with fire…even if there is an explosion, the selloff is goingto be short lived…the market is currently pricing he end of Japan, while the situation is not as bad as Tchernobyl…I agree that it is a very sad situation, but they are dealing with it

  308. Gary

    Basil,
    Most intermediate declines are profit taking events that become emotional at the very bottom.

    You’ve got to be kidding if you think this isn’t different than a normal intermediate decline.

    But like I said go ahead and freak out if you must. Just leave the rest of us out of it. You aren’t helping anyone by trying to rationalize why you are losing your cool. The rest of us are trying to stay calm. It’s what separates great investors from the the sheep. They stay cool under pressure and they make decisions based on what will happen not what is happening.

  311. sophia

    I see some positive signs…Tepco has finally called the army …they should have done that on day 1… In a case like this, the army needs to be involved, and not just a private company

  312. traderRob

    Folks need to pay attention to the news and the alteration in verbiage, specifically adjectives, from the norm. While the Japanese nuclear situation is far from over, the news media has been treating this like Chernobyl. The media outlets need eyeballs on them at all times, and sensationalism sells as well if not better today than it did during the W.R. Hearst days. Keep everything in perspective. I’m hurting too at this point, but that’s my fault due only to my failure to adequately manage my position size (shoot me, I’m in my early 20’s; hotheaded and all that). Gary’s not losing his mind over this, and why should he? Look at silver! If this were a teotwawki scenario, silver would be down 10%… daily… since the earthquake’s onset.

    Cooler heads prevail and always do. This too shall pass.

  314. Dan

    My only regret right now is that I didn’t leave a lot of cash on hand to buy more today and tomorrow.
    But I am liking the “turn the computer off and go have fun” idea

  315. basil

    Gary,

    are you sure you are talking to me?!
    I am certainly not freaking out or losing my cool, what are you talking about? That’s the oddest message I’ve ever read from you. Either you must have written this message to me by mistake, or it is in fact you who is losing his cool.

  316. n1tro

    Hey Gary,

    Hypothetical question for you. If this earthquake happened when you were calling for stock market to crash a few months back, do you think metals would be acting the same way as now?

  318. Arun

    Gary.. one last comment, I am not trying to freak out folks. Just stating silver has sustained an expected daily cycle correction and anything further will be a problem. If so, I am just trying to lock in atleast some profits.

    I agree its too late in the daily cycle to sell. Its down 8% already. If it reaches your stop level i.e previous daily low, its like 15% in silver. So, if we dip 33 & below, its like more than 10% and we are in no-man’s land. In that case, I don’t wanna get out flat. Lock in some and load upon a swing low.

  319. Gary

    Arun,
    The swing won’t be official until $1428 as of right now. Are really going to wait till then to re-enter? And if it does rally that much you will be buying into overbought conditions. Can you bring yourself to do that?

    I know many people say they can but just like those that say they will back up the truck on a correction is rarely happens in real time.

  321. Darwin

    Gary, when i look at a 4 year chart on the dollar i see a bullish falling wedge which appears to be strongly converging. A bullish inverted hammer appeared yesterday which could signify that the dollar is starting to release some overhanging supply which usually occurs prior to a strong advance. IMO, downside momentum seems to be abating. Couple this with the growing Japan issue and we have the recipe for world markets to join the move lower in the stock markets. This will undoubtedly, imo, create a dollar safe haven which will not be good for the metals. Finally, an IHS has formed on the 10 year which should move in tandem with the dollar if the world markets panic. I dont think we should underestimate the potential length or magnitude of a PM retreat especially in Silver which is close to breaking $33 and could send it to its 200dma in a New York minute.

  322. basil

    Hey Gary,

    an apology would be in place for writing me this totally odd and aggressive reply to my completely relaxed and harmless post. What’s going on, are you alright?

  323. basil

    Hey Gary,

    an apology would be in place for writing me this totally odd and aggressive reply to my completely relaxed and harmless post. What’s going on, are you alright?

  324. Gary

    Darwin,
    You are wasting your time trying to find chart patterns on the dollar index when it’s dropping into a three year cycle low.

    Those aren’t about technicals they are about fundamentals and sentiment.

  326. Arun

    Gary.. If we make new lows, it will be official over 1401, not 1428. Your line in the sand is 8% in gold/15% in silver to get stopped out. Mine’s a little lesser.

  327. Darwin

    Gary, I do not disagree with your statement, however, technicals seem to sometimes make sense when uexpected events occur. Fundamentals, sentiment, and other tried and true approaches can be distracted by these black swan occurrences. That being said, i agree with your overall view in normal conditions but i am protecting myself.

  329. Arun

    Gary.. if what was directed at Basil.. was for me, then all burrito shop in switz will be closed in june. Anyways, my point was u can’t brush off..its just $2 off highs. Its decent correction for a daily cycle low, 8% which is to be considered.

  330. Nike Boy2008

    I have a no basis for this but i think that Gary will be correct again…today didn’t look like a bottom, but we’re very close…i think that we have one more quick drop to 1360-1370 to form a washout bottom and then move up aggressively from here…to leave behind a bunch of people

  332. James

    Gary, you said “You’ve got to be kidding if you think this isn’t different than a normal intermediate decline.”

    I’m confused, but I assume you’re saying this IS simply a normal intermediate decline. Is that right?

  333. Gary

    Arun,
    I’m not brushing off the correction in silver. I’m trying to point out how well it has held together considering everything that has happened.

    At any other time in the last ten years these kind of conditions would have caused silver to drop 20+% and easily fall through the 50 DMA.

    Silver isn’t even close to penetrating the 50 yet. Once the selling pressure is released it will likely get back to heading for that $50 mark.

    But I think there are quite a few traders and investors that will not be able to handle another down day tomorrow.

    The more people try to rationalize why this is different the more likely those on the edge will sell into the daily cycle bottom and then be unable to re-enter.

  334. Mission

    For what it’s worth, I “backed up the truck” (unfortunately I have a small truck) and loaded up on silver yesterday and then found a way to fit some more in today. At this point I’m loaded up enough and am following Gary’s advice and chilling the freak out. I think we should all do the same.

  335. Gary

    James,
    The circumstances surrounding this correction are anything but normal. This isn’t about profit taking it’s about out of control emotions.

  336. James

    Gary, I see your response to me (thank you), but my original post disappeared. Also, I posted yesterday but they disappeared as well. Can you explain what is happening?

  338. Veronica

    3 mile disaster and Chernobyl did not produce huge gold corrections, and after both resolved gold produced big gains. Of course this time may be different but history is on the bulls side.

  339. alysomji

    I think the problem is many people are using too big position-sizing.

    Gary, you may need to stress the need for proper position-sizing more often. Things like the volatility of instruments one trades and the type of drop one should be prepared for without needing to sell should be in the discussion.

    It’s a very easy mistake to make and I find that only the more experienced tend to avoid this mistake.

  340. jeff

    gary

    this is very different . this is totally different than all other c waves.
    its like no other advance

    its never been like this before

  344. ALEX

    Where in the world is S.B.?

    Usually about now , when all the comments are flying, he appears and says;

    ” Everything will be all right” ,

    then he goes off and prints more money 🙂

    I was just re-reading the last blog when EVERYONE was singing , ” We’re so glad to have you Gary-Thanks for walking us through it and leading the way!!”

    WHAT HAPPENED?? Its like people are trying to talk HIM out of his convictions now , when really , anyone can just ‘sell’ and let Gary continue on.

    I hope Gold slams down to 1375 overnight or tomorrow and then ROCKETS outta here , so the LOVE can return 🙂

    Burritos and Tequila tonight Gary!

  345. jeff

    i mean im on it. no other c wave or anyother wave has had me in one position on it this long.. im gonna make money ..

    thats whats different

  346. whitebear

    Gary,

    My hat is off to you, for keeping your cool.
    The way you manage your emotions not only with the markets but with some of the posts here is truly admirable.

  347. fat boy

    Well tomorrow will be interesting
    Way to go mission and sb

    Me just keeping to the plan and feeling good about it
    Taking to heart own the trade

  349. ...at ease

    I’m fully with you Mission and Alex! I don’t understand why everyone is so nervous, yes it’s hard to see funds drop down, but part of the ride. I am hoping to see a rocket ship blast off soon enough. YOu all ever see the commercial with the little white dog can’t figure a safe place for his bone… worry, worry worry.

  352. jeff

    anyone selling gold futures.. could yall possibly do it at the same time, like in exactly 15 minutes, all at once. ill buy a little more

  355. Silverman

    I don’t know where we’ll be in a few days but I’m telling myself that I’m here because I decided to buy into cycle theory and I’m invested accordingly. Cycles are driven by sentiment and human emotion, regardless of their cause. Cycle bottoms occur when that sentiment and that emotion are at their most negative. Based on the comments on today’s blog as well as my own feelings, I think we’re getting close.

  356. Movax

    All major markets including gold are down significantly today as investors become skittish.

    The most important aspect of this entire situation, however, is that the Japanese Government will need to sell a large quantity of its horde of US Treasuries to pay for reconstruction.
    With China not adding to its holdings of US Treasuries, the Arab oil exporters looking more volatile every day and now Japan looking as though it may be an active seller that doesn’t leave many buyers left for US Treasuries except its biggest holder and sole-buyer of nearly all new issuances from November until at least June – the Federal Reserve.

    http://www.dollarvigilante.com/blog/2011/3/14/tsunami-may-sink-the-uranium-sector-us-dollar.html

  357. Brian

    Gary, This is without any doubt, the most emotional I have seen this blog. People are just going crazy. I really hope Jayhawk takes a deep breath. I remember last year he sold the bottom and missed the big run. Hang tough Jay!

    Everybody right now wants to attack the cycles. Let us say something aborts the expected action. We get out around where we bought. No harm no foul. We live to continue to ride the bull. If somebody bought late, the bull has corrected every mistake I have made so far, and there have been plenty.

    Ladies and Gentlemen, Gary has far and away a better handle on this bull than anybody else you will find. Lots of deep breathing and shut off computers is the order of the day!

  359. New York

    What’s everybody worried about?

    I have put on the idiot box in weeks and I’m cool as a cuke… Why don’t you either scale back your leverage if you’ve put yourself in a position for potential losses you can’t afford to take or just get out of the kitchen.

  360. Gary

    Yes we now have a failed daily cycle in progress. It’s still very early in the cycle so a lot of damage can be done before this daily cycle bottoms.

  364. jeff

    cool
    see
    what more could you guys want.
    You have a little bitxh of a dollar on your side. the gov wants to ruin it but we are going to make it faster than they can ruin it. that is what has had me chaseing gold for a few years now.

  366. catbird

    What keeps me from getting emotional is Gary’s research on the USD cycle.

    If the USD is on the brink of its descent to the 3-yr low (and nothing in its price action recently signals it isn’t) I would be crazy to let go of my AGQ here.

    If the USD story changes, I will change.

    I just cannot see how the USD keeps dropping and silver falls with it. My imagination isn’t that powerful.

  367. Bob loves Hawaii

    I think a lot of people are freaking out because they do not iunderstand the physics behind these reactors. This meltdown in progress is result of heat from decay, not reaction. The worst case scenario at this point is a steam explosion, and a release of Cesium and Iodine. These particles can only travel so far, and can only travel further when they attach to dust particles. These rods will cool in six weeks and not be melting anymore in days. They will them entomb this site.

    It is snowing in Japan and knocking down dust, the winds are and have been south and souteast, meaing out to sea. The dust needs to get to the stratosphere to travel any distance. Just now, at three hundred feet above the plant is showing minor radioactivity.

    The level of misinformation is just amazing.

  369. New York

    It’s actually pretty funny when you come to the blog at the end of the day. You read the posts of the day all at once and after the fact. It’s as if I can trade the market just by reading sentiment on the blog!

  371. DG

    People! If you are unable to handle this drop you are too heavy! This is not free money. If you act greedily or in an undisciplined fashion you will get spanked and lose! No one can predict 5-10% drops with accuracy. If you cannot handle a drop of this size you are doing something wrong. Correct your error and move on, but learn from it. It is perfectly fine to be wrong. It is criminal to not learn from it. What a waste. What did you do wrong here Hint” Following or not following Gary is not an acceptable answer.) Did you buy late? Did you buy too much? Did you leverage? Did you get greedy? Were you fantasizing a Ferrari?

    My rant for the evening. Good luck everybody.

  374. ...at ease

    DG: too funny, for me this was a make up/catch up play for all the ones I missed.
    “Hint” Did you buy late?
    Silver, YES …
    Did you buy too much?
    YES…
    Did you leverage?
    Silver, YES…
    Did you get greedy?
    YES..
    Were you fantasizing a Ferrari? NO… no Ferrari, my mortgage.
    But hanging on for the ride. It’s the only bull in town.

  377. n1tro

    Well said Bob. People hear the words “nuclear” and “meltdown” from the news and go crazy. Someone before was comparing this to ’08 and how this is the end. I don’t know about the rest here, but I made money in ’08, without shorting, playing off the herd hysteria mentality.

  379. Jayhawk

    I’m actually not in a panic mode right now, I’m just thinking this C-wave thesis could be off in light of the global backdrop. Gary said there would be a C-wave last Spring too, FYI. I know the three year low is in front of us this time, but with the issues with Japan’s currency, hedge funds forced to liquidate, etc…could cause things to get pushed out.

    I added more SLV and SLW calls today, so still buying into the theme for now.

  381. Vonda

    “It’s snowing in Japan.”

    We haven’t heard from Bill. Wonder how he’s doing.

    I can’t speak for anyone but myself, but, c’mon, it’s money. Perspective.

    Analysis is great, important, and fabulous–and what this blog is devoted to–but maybe a little more kindness and/or generosity of spirit/benefit of the doubt?

    I don’t know about you, but I’m sitting in a warm place, with a full belly, and all of my loved ones accounted for. And I’m feeling a little off about my biggest wish being for a movement in the price of PM’s.

    Alex, pass that tequila, hold the beans . . .

  382. Natanarchist

    vonda says: “I don’t know about you, but I’m sitting in a warm place, with a full belly, and all of my loved ones accounted for.”

    is that belly full from poutine…haha

  383. Vonda

    Nat! Ha!

    That would be explosive!

    Only time I considered poutine was when I lived in the northeast of this continent. Here in southern Cali we’re lucky to get an occasional crispy chill, which I dedicate to single malts — not gravy on chip-stix!

  387. james r

    Gary,

    The way gold is acting (barely moving) and the Nikkei showing resilience, gold may actually tag the 50 dma. We were very close yesterday.

    This almost makes me believe gold would have retrace to the 50dma regardless of the crisis in Japan.

    James

  388. Natanarchist

    single malt will work too…

    nuking a krispy creme?

    To those who are sweating your positions..take the advice Gary, DG, Brian, and others are offering about risk control and position sizing. first the advice is free and second and most importantly, they are most likely speaking from the experience of making the same mistakes as some of you are now making. I made them too…you hit a bunch of singles and doubles and then believe you are a home run hitter, swing for the fences and strike out. There are some awesome investor/traders on this blog that we all can learn from, starting with Gary.

  389. David

    I will buy a burrito for the first person who can give me an example of an exogenous event that had a long-term effect on the market.

  390. n1tro

    yeah people nuke krispy kremes after they are a few days old and presto! they are like fresh from the store!

    on a side note, I know where are the hysteria from tonight came from. Go over to the Zero Hedge blog, they got an article calling for the end of the “financial” world as we know it. It outlines the 5 or 6 stages of the apocalypse too!

    I just hope this whole mess with Japan doesn’t delay my Nintendo 3DS I have on order.

  393. David

    That’s not really an exogenous event. That’s a technological shift.

    An exogenous event would be a natural disaster, assassination, act of war/terrorism, political scandal, etc.

    What you’ll find in all cases — even extreme ones like Pearl Harbor — is that they did nothing to change the long-term trend.

  396. Clarkatroid

    This is an extreme but not unique situation,Im panicking, most this board is panicking.

    Im Probably the most novice investor here, but I think it all comes down to this

    1) is it likely a natural disaster such as this will affect the bull Market in gold and silver

    2) do you believe in Gary?

    Its no too 1 and yes too 2

    So I’m going to do what Gary says and not read this blog for a couple of weeks, just the nightly reports

  409. Aaron

    Gold really needs to wake up… USD seems done, and Gary’s much awaited drop seems to have started… I think it’s safe to say that the correction is over.

  415. ALEX

    POLY, James, AARON

    Am I dreaming …or …

    is – it…really…

    THURSDAY!??

    I Mean dollar straight down and gold/silver going green!! (Thursday is patday 🙂

  416. Poly

    Was reading through the earlier posts of late last night, amazing. If there was ever going to be a bottom, thy sentiment surely would be a great candidate 🙂

    That dollar sure is a wonderful sight this morning.

  428. ALEX

    I live right across the desert from Gary and I see his lights on…he’s awake , so I say he is awake writing…
    any minute now you’re gonna see…”NEW POST”

  431. ALEX

    ….AT EASE

    I must say , you kept it together rather well last night 🙂

    I thought you were newer here,new to cycles… maybe not?

  432. Gary

    Awake but not writing. Just getting ready to soak in the hot tub. Soar from a hard workout last night.

    I seem to remember the dollar bulls tell us the momentum divergence or some wedge pattern was going to lead to a rally.

    Looks like cycles got it right again. This failure is happening very early in the daily cycle. When that happens there is a lot of time left before a bottom. These kind of daily cycles usually produce a lot of damage.

    Three weeks from now the dollar could and probably will be testing the 08 lows.

  433. ...at ease

    I am new, just signed up with Gary early February. I could tell he knew what he was talking about, after studying gold last year, and I rode the wave up last fall into winter. However, I was thrilled to find Gary in Feb, as I knew I needed a good guide through the gold cycles at the micro level. Everyone can tell you up and down at the macro level, but mighty impressed with Gary!

  436. Haggerty

    Good Morning Everyone!

    Gary

    On nov 4th I see the dollar closed at 75.88, but the intra day low was 75.63. When looking at things technically do you look at what it closed that day or what the intra day low was for that day.

  437. ALEX

    Well Gary,

    that being said (This failure is happening very early in the daily cycle. When that happens there is a lot of time left before a bottom. These kind of daily cycles usually produce a lot of damage.)…

    I would imagine that the parabolic move in Gold /Silver could just move straight up? I can imagine seeing Silver near $50 the way it moves, in 4 wks , and the dollar testing lows of 08.

    Couldnt this all end before mid April, or doesnt that ‘fit’. I ask because I am going away the first week of April ( and I swear my wife plans vacations at Market tops and Bottoms EVERY YEAR!

  441. ...at ease

    Dave Ramsey tip of the day…
    Simple Plans Create Millionaires
    The Tip
    To retire a millionaire, you need a plan—the simpler the better. Stay committed, and it will pay off in big ways!

  442. Shalom Bernanke

    I’d like metals to respond more to dollar weakness, but still happy I’m not loaded to the gills in worthless paper being created non-stop. We’ll be trading the long side of metals and miners for years.

  446. Gary

    Just be patient for a couple of days. It’s going to take at least that long for the market to realize what’s happening to the dollar and shake off the fear of what just happened.

    But a collapsing dollar will eventually drive gold and silver into a huge parabolic rally.

  448. Aaron

    The metals sure know how to kill the fun!
    The USD finally decides to go our way, and all the PMs do is just piss around?
    Talk about a sentiment killer!

  449. Gary

    Just be patient. Most of the market doesn’t understand what the break in the dollar means. They are focused in the wrong place while smart money is loading up as much as they can before the rest of the market catches on to what just happened today.

  451. Dan

    Think or Swim shows a low on DX of 76.15 overnight. Am I looking at the wrong quote? I see the discussion of prices lower than that?

  453. Poly

    75.835 was the low, interestingly just a point or so below the Nov lows.
    Dollar cycle has officially failed.
    The gold cycle is well overdue to bottom.
    Negative sentiment hit extremes last night 🙂 Fear, panic and selling.

    I’m a betting man and those are betting odds.

  459. Allenupl

    Dan,
    I also see on Thinkorswim (TOS) a 76.15 low for the dollar earlier today (/DX).
    Gary links to
    http://www.goldseek.com/quotes/charts/usdollar/usdollarindex24hour.php
    which I keep open all the time. That shows a low of 75.84 for the day. I’m not sure what the difference is.

    I also keep open a live streaming screen of Forex spot prices at
    http://www.netdania.com/Products/live-streaming-currency-rates-foreign-exchange/real-time-quotes/QuoteList.aspx?m=q
    This show the dollar currently at 75.96, lower than TOS which is 76.32 now.

    And Gary in his nightly service uses the US$ from Stockcharts.com which i think is a continuous contract.

    I would appreciate if anyone knows the difference between all these figures. Thanks.

  460. Shalom Bernanke

    The metals should be up more considering what’s happening to the USD. I’m prepared to ride out some sideways to lower prices if necessary as we might muddle around for awhile before moving higher with conviction.

    Still plan to buy more into weakness if it occurs.

  463. Moneyman

    Yes Poly..12 hours there was panic here..Real panic!

    A few kept their spirits up..You were one of those..

    Humans never change..We see the same things when something goes against us..Panic! 12 hours later we are in heaven..lol!

    Its actually very interesting..

  464. Gary

    Folks the metals aren’t doing exactly what you want because almost no one understands the importance of what just happened to the dollar today.

    Everyone is focused on a rebound in the stock market.

    You are getting a gift right now. You can either take it or you can sit on your hands until the market does recognize what’s happening and the metals start to runaway from you.

    It’s your decision. Buy into oversold conditions before the rally starts and before the market catches on, or wait until the rally explodes without you and have to chase into overbought conditions.

    Just remember what happened during the last daily cycle. The gains often came pre-market and if you weren’t already in you never got a chance to get in because by the open you were already left behind.

  466. Todd

    I remember metals did the same thing out of the reversal week in the first week of September 2010. The stock market rallied for the week and metals followed the week after.

  467. Brian

    Poly, My stockharts.com chart shows the Nov intermediate low as 75.63. I have 75.85 as the low on the dxy this morning at 6:00 Eastern. Am I missing something?

  469. Ryan

    at ease,

    I just saw your message now. I’m in Canada in the west coast so I was still in bed. Where abouts you at? Just got up awhile ago and wow what a sight for the USD. I’m a bit disappointed with the PM’s though. But I’m going to do what Gary says and be patient and wait for people to realize what’s happening to the dollar.

  474. Gary

    Action and reaction. The further the rubber band stretches in one direction the harder it snaps back once the pressure is released.

    Whats the one sector that got beat up the most during this correction? What’s the sector no one loves right now?

    Answer
    Mining stocks.

    That’s where the really big gains are going to be made. Although I’m still not sure they will keep up with AGQ.

  475. alex

    Kobe Earthquake Jan. 1995 – the Dollar dropped 25% against the YEN in 9 weeks as the Japanese repatriated their funds from overseas. This is how you get a 3 year bottom in the dollar.

  478. New York

    Last week when AGQ was well above 200 levels people were BEGGING for a chance to get more lower.

    Here it is… Analysis paralysis in full effect.

  481. Brian

    You can sure see on the intra day slv chart people are puking up their shares right into this rally. Probably at the worst possible moment.

  482. DG

    I replaced the SIL I sold a few days ago with AGQ this morning. At this point having just AGQ seems like a good idea to me, though I am not there yet, and may not get there. Less worry, more guts for the bad times.

  484. ALEX

    For all my high risk taking ‘jumior’ buddies

    I bought MNEAF this A.M. , on a 6 month chart/daily looks like a nice set up

    (not waiting for the breakout over previous highs, because volume up off the bottom here is nice)

    Juniors have risk (disclaimer)

  490. The Angry Hippie

    I went long AGQ this morning thanks to the guidance on this board. Hopefully the fundamentals hold and PMs do what they are supposed to.

    Is anyone thinking about upside exit points or is that getting ahead of things?

  492. DG

    I added to my Japan/DFJ position this morning. This is a bit unusual for me as I have no clear “system” in play. I do like buying into panics, though, and this ETF is CHEAP! If the world doesn’t end over there this’ll be up 30% if the SPX challenges its old highs

  495. n1tro

    Ok, I’m out of my Nikkei short from last night’s end of the world talk. Lost -$175…about the same as a yearly subscription here. Thanks for all the “perfect storm” pep talk guys!

    LOL! j/k. just wanted to show what newbie traders might have done from all that talk last night. I might have lost $175 from a short but would have lost more if I did something stupid like sold off my gold/silver.

  496. fat boy

    I,m at about 135% in now
    That seams to be my comfort level

    I think the only thing that would make me get out would be
    Gary dg sb poly Saying jump and mlmt and hammy saying buy

    Well done calm people but there is usually more twists and sb has been right before on sideways and gary would have liked a tad lower to define the bottom

    And In the real world i Hope with all my heart that bill and his family are fine

  497. ALEX

    TOM

    Alligator arms?? What does that mean…goose bumps?? Scales? Short stubby tight limbs?

    That one went over my head
    🙂

  498. DG

    N1tro: You were shorting Japan as I was buying it? Serves you right! (Next time just mail me the $175). Seriously, don’t EVER short into panics.

  499. ALEX

    M1TRO

    You payed $175 for a ‘crash’ course on other peoples emotions.

    Not such a bad price to pay, considering what it could have Cost following another crowd at another time 🙂

  500. n1tro

    I knew it was a bad trade. Thats why I only went in with 1 lot. Wanted to show to the crybabies here last night how hysterical they were.

  503. Gary

    The potential gain when SIl gets back to the old highs is 18%. SLW roughly 15%. Silver 5.7%.

    The gold:XAU ratio hit 7 during this correction.

    It’s probably time to either move some money out of AGQ and into SIL or add some more margin.

    Hmm what to do?

  504. Todd

    Hi Alex.
    Alligator arms meant I couldn’t reach my keyboard to make a purchase because I am a little too nervous.
    I am quite comfortable with what I got anyway.

  505. David

    RA, not not long dollar anymore, I had a 160 pip lead in my euro short. I had locked in a small gain. I actually sold into dollar strength this morning.

  506. Shalom Bernanke

    I intend to add to miners, but metal will work too. This action today is just what the doctor ordered, and I’d welcome another mini-shakeout just to clear out the nervous nellies and weak hands. That should be enough to let the bull get back on track.

  507. Shalom Bernanke

    What I;m looking at that suggests more downside is possible (or desired) is the stochastic on silver…would like that to push down to oversold, but it might not happen.

  513. Todd

    Just a thought:

    Japan will need to import an enormous amount of materials to rebuild. A temporary higher Yen would allow them to purchase more materials/products at a lower price.

  514. Shalom Bernanke

    Yeah, I just preferred to see silver down slightly today. Would’ve been ideal setup, IMO.

    That’s ok, a few days consolidation and we can get back to business!

  516. DG

    SB: I was thinking the same thing (that we didn’t quite get oversold enough), but this is supposed to be a daily cycle low not an IT one, so I don’t know that we need that. It just became a mini-panic because of Japan, so we don’t need a full-blown sentiment reversal, perhaps.

  518. Elaine

    Hi Gary,

    Yes, I did read that comment and was asking in relation to that. If SIL goes up 18%, what would AGQ do? It’s already gone up more than that since February?

    Sorry if I am being dense.

  521. Gary

    Elaine,
    The further something gets stretched the more violently it tends to snap back when the pressure is released. Sil and miners in general got hit very hard during this correction. Silver not so much.

    If the laws of action and reaction are still intact (and I think they are) we should probably see SIL outperform AGQ, at least for a little while.

  524. Poly

    The high’s were all the way back on Feb 2nd and we’ve seen some nice panic selling and 3 mini waves down. For a cycle low before a blowoff, I think you’re playing with fire asking for anything more. Prices are great, no need to get greedy on the flip side now too.

  528. Gary

    Folks it’s probably unlikely that this turns on a dime and rockets higher. It’s going to take a little work to stop the downside momentum and regain the 10 DMA.

    If you are expecting a 40 point launch on the first day You are most likely going to be disappointed.

    The dollar is doing what we expect. Eventually the metals will to. Use the next couple of days to add to or get into positions before the upside momentum gets going. And if we get something out of Japan we could even get another push lower.

  529. aaronpalang

    Euro 1.40 needs to fall. Thats the only thing holding us back at this point. Specially with gold firmly holding 1000 Euro through the fixes.

  530. Beksachi

    Gary,

    I am planning to add more AGQ and SIL now that the $ drop is looking likely.

    In the past, I recall you wrote/recommended waiting till near end of the trading day before adding positions….can you elaborate?

    Thanks

  532. Gary

    Bek,
    The end of the day is when the pros make their move. Right now we are either at or very close to a daily cycle low. You can probably add anywhere in here and be pretty close even if another surprise hits out of japan I would think we are within one or two days of a bottom if it hasn’t already arrived.

  533. Bob loves Hawaii

    Personally I d not like the miner mix for SIL. For me a basket of the best juniors is my approach. I own 8 companies, and waiting for my Minera buy stop to hit.

    I also own a basket of six small cap gold miners, as well.

  534. Gary

    Haggerty,
    Peter also doesn’t understand cycles.

    Once the dollar puts in the three year cycle low it will rally violently and the Fed will have had to stop QE under threat of a complete dollar collapse.

    If you are already having a heart attack you don’t get on a trendmill.

    The dollar is just beginning to have a heart attack.

  541. Scooby Don't

    OK, thanks for all you comments today Gary.

    I didn’t hold any AGQ so I have added the last of my leverage (virtually) onto SIL today after adding a few things yesterday. This has been a great learning process and not at all scary thanks to your guidance and a strong belief in the big picture.

    Good call on the dollar!

  547. Gary

    Andrew,
    If you’ve been reading the nightly reports or the blog then you know I think the stock market has also topped.

    I don’t think the commodity markets have topped, especially gold and silver. They will be driven by the collapse of the dollar which is still ahead of us. They are still very early in their intermediate cycle while the stock market is very late.

    Without a working knowledge of how cycles work these technicians are never going to get the major turns right because they will always be operating in hindsight.

  549. aviat72

    Gary:

    Equities (miners) versus Metal in the C-wave driven by cheap dollar and high commodity (energy prices). Please critique my hypothesis with historical references if possible.

    Given the context, why would you keep your exposure on the miners? Money printing will happen when asset prices fall. And by asset prices Ben means equities. So while the metals will have the “Fed Force” behind them, the equities OTOH will be fighting two opposing forces.

    I do realize that within equities money flow will favor the miners but if the net money flow is out, the relative performance vis-a-vis metals is likely to suffer. Especially if we see an explosion in energy costs and other issues which affect miners. I guess pure price based plays like SLW will do fine but what about miners as a whole?

    I also heard talk that while PMs can rocket higher, equities may not follow them in the final wave, simply because the smart money knows that the final C wave is going to be followed by a major draw-down. Since equities price the future that will also be reflected in miners.

  550. Shalom Bernanke

    I believe it will be some time before high energy prices make a significant dent in miner earnings. We must also take into account that many miners’ for the last quarter, like SVM for example, have an average selling price of something around $21/share.

    With silver hanging in around $34/oz, we’ll see roughly 60% increase in the bottom line, all other things being equal.

  552. Gary

    A,
    It’s usually only in the last week or few days that the market starts to sniff out a top and miners start to diverge. Miners followed gold right up to the 09 top and 10 top recently. Neither one of those showed any divergence.

    The gold:XAU ratio is still terribly cheap and got even cheaper with the panic selling. One want’s to be where the rubber band got stretched the furthest.

    Case in point; what got hit the hardest in 08? Miners.

    What bounced back the hardest? Miners.

    Let me stress again that it is usually a mistake to project the past into the future. Just because miners have underperformed for the last two months doesn’t mean it will continue indefinitely.

    Liquidity will eventually find its way into undervalued asset. Nothing is more undervalued right now than miners.

    And oil is still $50 cheaper than it was in 07 and very unlikely to get to those levels even with a dollar collapse because the fundamentals are impaired in the energy markets.

    Plus they will get worse as the economy starts to roll over again.

  556. Gary

    Not that I put a lot of faith in patterns but miners look like they are forming a 4 month triangle continuation pattern.

  557. Shalom Bernanke

    I don’t know what a “triangle consolidation pattern” is, but it sure sounds good to me. 🙂

    This is shaping up real well so far. If we can get silver to close around here (down slightly), I’ll get to add tomorrow then turn off the ‘puter.

  559. Jayhawk

    Step in the right direction, I’m still concerned about the carry trade unwinding ala 2008. I don’t think most traders are freaked out about the radiation issue, it’s the carry issue.

    Dan Noricini blogged about it last night and then followed up with a post on why this is not 2008. Scroll down his blog to seen the different posts.

    http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/

    I’m willing to concede that this could take some time to unfold…perhaps just enough time to give us our large move over the next few months.

    Then, if it does unwind around this summer, it would fit perfectly with a massive correction in commodities.

  561. Haggerty

    Anyone that wants to answer I would appreciate it.

    Does anyone else use Scottrade? And without getting to personal can you recommend a good platform.

    For example I can not set a trade trigger on something that I do not own. Like if I wanted to use a stop on GDX to sell my other positions I can’t set it because i don’t own GDX.

  565. wmp

    Gary,

    I understand your comment about a higher return for SIL vs AGQ relative to reaching previous highs. Do you still expect AGQ to outperform SIL in the parabolic move up, beyond previous highs? If one was to sell AGQ to buy SIL isn’t it sacrificing longer term gain for a higher near term gain? Would you sell SIL at some point and re-enter AGQ? In that case wouldn’t AGQ be difficult to enter? Just a little confused.

    Thanks

  566. Gary

    WMP,
    I never said I would sell AGQ in favor of SIL. I’m debating whether to add more margin in SIL or maybe move 5% from AGQ to SIL.

    I haven’t made a decision yet.

  569. AGoldhamster

    Quote … “None of these technicians understand the importance of what just happened to the dollar today.”

    Huh … now that is of course NOT an arrogant statement.

  570. Dan

    Geeezz…considering the level of disgust you seem to have for this board, how poorly you feel you were treated and all the promises that you would never return…you sure seem to keep tabs on whats going on here lol

  575. Gary

    Jim Rogers explains the importance of what’s happening in the dollar right now.

    When something is oversold and still can’t rally on good news there’s serious problems developing.

  577. T.J. Rand

    Hammy-

    Why would you re-appear only to take a swipe at Gary? If you disagree, fine – state your disagreement and the reason for it. But there is never a need for personal invective.

  579. New York

    Gary,

    So it sounds like you are favoring (possibly) miners at this point?

    You are debating weather or not you feel they will outperform, is that correct? (relative to AGQ?)

  582. pimaCanyon

    Headline on Yahoo Finance page:

    “Lack of parts forces GM to halt pickup production”

    Wow, that was fast. Less than a week after the quake and they are already running out of parts? You’d think the supply pipeline would take longer than that to run out, seeing as parts would be shipped from Japan by boat, not air.

  583. fat boy

    Haggerty
    I use Scottrade and you can set advanced orders which are triggered by stock prices you don’t own in the advanced trade section

  585. ALEX

    G7 meets at 6 p.m. tonight , and it is assumed logical that they will overwhelmingly agree to allow Japan to push down the YEN

    That would cause a Dollar rally. correct?

    And the link that Gary posted was of Jim Rogers saying he is buying the dollar , looking for a 20% rally, but he also thinks its on the tipping point and may sell off too ( then he will get out).

    Maybe JIM is buying the dollar with the G7 mtg in mind…can this cause a failed daily (dollar) daily cycle to recover??

    Gary? Anyone?

  586. DG

    Hamster: What happened to “I’m gone and will never post here again”? Isn’t part of trading self-discipline?

  587. DG

    Alex: Rogers is not a short-term guy and waits years for his “trades” to play out. Buying the dollar now does not mean anything about the next 1-3 months. If we drop now I’ll buy it to (by shorting stocks.)

  588. MrMiyagi

    Jim Rogers says:
    “He says that if the dollar holds here it could rally as much as 20%, but “if it goes down 3% or 4% from here, I would have to sell and get out and hope I’m still solvent.””
    Yahoo source.

  589. DG

    I believe the Yen dropping does not mean the dollar goes up because the euro is the biggest factor in DXY. Yesterday the giant yen rally did not push the dollar down as one might have thought. But then, I am no currency expert…?

  591. Haggerty

    I think Rogers is just trading it and he alway’s says that he is worst market timer in the world. Hopefully we are going to an example of that.

  592. AGoldhamster

    T.J.Rand … this was Gary’s post:

    “None of these technicians understand the importance of what just happened to the dollar today.”

    Hammy: that is what I call arrogant. Or do you think all technicans are idiots and just Gary the god?

    And even worse: given the Dollar making new lows and eurusd again having tested recent highs and Brent having rallied 6 bucks from the lows – and metals and PM stocks having done almost nothing – I would be pretty careful with my statements. But maybe it’s desperation.

    BTW as a European – I’m following XAUEUR and XAUUSD since over a decade. And I can tell you that Gold is far from dollar dependant. In fact we had the nicest rallies when the Euro was weak and Dollar strong.
    In example – if tomorrow Spain blows up – you will have a Dollar rally and a Gold rally at the same time.
    And not to get me wrong – it could well happen that the dollar goes lower and gold goes higher.

    JUST that the opposite can happen too. That is Dollar lower – and gold lower too.

    Current environment is not a question of currencies – but a question of deleveraging or not.

    Once it is again “risk on” (for whatever reasons) – gold and Silver will rally no matter what the Dollar will do.

    In other words – I STRONGLY doubt the basics of Gary’s strategy. As not the dollar is the driving force.
    That is to be 140% long in a “risk of” environment – is just NOT MY thingy.
    Besides the fact that my rule #1 is to protect capital and not greed.

  595. Bruce

    Since the $USD just broke to a new low, why isn’t that doing much for GLD/SLV?

    When things don’t act as they should (like the $USD according to Rogers), isn’t there a problem? or do we want to have it both ways since it bolsters the argument for a parabolic PM move?

  596. DG

    Hamster: Hey! A reasoned and reasonable post! If you can avoid the potshot (there were just a few this time) and stick to reasoned analysis you’d be a welcome addition here. My preference (at least) would be not to push too hard, not to try to scare people, and not to dis others. I love hearing the other side when I am in a trade, but not to where I feel like I need to take a shower after reading it. Good post!
    Gary’s point is that every final C-wave has been accompanied by a dollar collapse, the timing is for the dollar to cave now (given cycles), gold to bottom about now on the daily cycle, and we haven’t yet seen gold finish its final run. Seems to add up to me. What in that description is incorrect or doubtful?

  598. DG

    Last question: As we are in a risk off environment, why is the dollar at new lows? Maybe gold becomes the risk off place to be since the dollar clearly isn’t (?)

  599. Gary

    First off the dollar will collapse down into the three year cycle low. I’ve been warning of this for months and months. Every dollar bull that doubted me has gotten run over. These big long term cycles just don’t fail.

    Being a chartist you don’t understand the significance of the break to new lows today.

    You would need to understand cycle theory to know why this is so important.

    Second in a dollar collapse the world will run to commodities for protection. The simplest and easiest commodity to buy and the one with improving fundamentals is gold and silver. To suggest that gold will go down in a dollar crisis is to not understand what is fundamentally happening here.

    Sure on a short term basis the corelation can break for a day or week or even a couple of weeks if gold is locked in an intermediate correction.

    But it can’t continue during a full fledged dollar crisis.

    Every C-wave has been driven by a major leg down in the dollar. This one will be no different. It is the fundamental driver of the secular gold bull.

    Unfortunately most chartist don’t take the time to understand what is driving the markets. They just watch their charts. But in order to successfully ride the bull, and hold through the inevitable draw downs one does have to understand the fundamentals and they have to have a working knowledge of cycles.

    Those tools along with some degree of technical skill will make people fabulously wealthy during this gold bull.

    (I expect it will be the greatest bull market any of us will every see)

  600. DG

    NY: Just that if the dollar rallies it’ll put pressure on the SPX (and everything else). I plan to heavily short SPY, QQQQ, and OIL when the dollar bottoms.

  601. The Angry Hippie

    I dig Gary because he lays it all out there, specifically his theory about the failed dollar cycle. I dont need to able to talk to the animals(bears, bulls or hamsters)to know if it works. It will become obvious as this plays out over the next weeks-months

  603. Gary

    Bruce,
    Gold has to stop the downside momentum and then turn back up. That rarely happens overnight. Usually it’s a U-turn instead of a slingshot.

  604. New York

    Hammy,

    So are you bullish PM’s?

    Only stating that your strategy and core principles as to why are different?

    Less risk less reward?

  605. AGoldhamster

    n1tro … I’m not as smart as most here. Actually I have no clue what will happen next.
    Mediumterm charts are bearish.
    Saudia Arabia and Lybia are possibly bullish factors to come into play.
    OE and futures OE and futures rollovers to come usually are bearish.
    Sentiment acually is risk of.
    So combined I think we have a shortterm mediumterm bearish picture. That can change anytime to the bullish side – once Japan get things under control, or no fly zone in Lybia (which seems likey now) .. or things out of control in SA.
    Also once DOW move over 1080x – things in general can turn for a day or two or a while.

    In short: bearish right now – but conflicting divergences and factors our there.

    So in the end – I have no clue what will happen next. That is enough for me to do nothing and just wait and protect my nuggets – until the fog clears and there is again a tradable environment.

    Mediumterm – and this is just a wild guess, on which I would not bet a cent: possibly until end of March or even second week of April we go lower.
    Though I’m ready to jump to the short side – whenever things look good – and that could already be tomorrow.
    Again in short – I’m charts and TA driven and not crystal ball driven.

  606. AGoldhamster

    And not to mislead anybody: I might as well jump to the long side – once things look good.

    So things can change with a dime.

    And it is a huge difference whether I jump in with 1/10 of a position or 3 or 5 ot 10 times leveraged.

    Pretty sure that until around april 4th my positions will be small. As until then we have an especially dangerous and volatile environment.
    Thereafter things might again calm down and we get again trending markets.

  607. Bruce

    thx 4 explanation/elabortion Gary

    so the GLD/SLV bear flag on the charts may be a short term pointer but the bull is still in tact & you aren’t concerned over a move down before THE BIG move up?

  610. Shalom Bernanke

    I’m prepared to be long, or short as conditions warrant. Further, I have no idea where things are going, but if you are long then they are going lower. Things look bearish,while others are bullish, but could change in a moment.

  611. AGoldhamster

    New York … shortterm uncertain or bearish.
    That can change anytime. Maybe already today towards the close – or tomorrow. Or April 4th.

    I’m just charts driven.

    STRONGLY bullish thereafter into June.

    Beyond that timeframe I might consider – the first time since 2001 – to hedge my physical.

    But these are still just wild guesses. On which I won’t bet a Cent. As I’m TA driven – and not Crystal ball driven.

  614. T.J. Rand

    Hammy- Thanks for the well-reasoned response to Gary’s point of view. I appreciate hearing all sides/points of view related to issues, especially given the turbulence from Japan.

    And Gary, thanks for the continued steady hand at the tiller.

    All that remains today is to hear what the G7 has to say – I suspect they’ll grunt and groan about weakening the yen, but it will be interesting to see what they actually do. At the end of the day, I have no doubt the US response will involve injecting more $ into the economy.

  615. ALEX

    DG SAID…

    “I love hearing the other side when I am in a trade, but not to where I feel like I need to take a shower after reading it.”

    What does that mean…you feel like you got pooped on?? haha

  616. Beksachi

    Gary,

    Thanks for the clarification on “pros buying at end of trading day”

    On your radio interview recently you mentioned that only other potential bull market going on right now (besides gold/silver) is agriculture.

    Today DBA was up a >3.5% while gold/silver lagged (due to manipulation).

    Do you plan to develop cycle studies of “Agriculture” in near future? I assume this area would suffer less bankster manipulations and can benefit consistently/greater from dollar devaluation than say gold/silver/oil?

    (I do not currently dabble with DBA since I don’t know of any forums/newsletters (like yours) that I can rely on for daily guidance).

  617. Gary

    I don’t really think I would be able to develop cycle counts for agricultural commodities. There are extenuating circumstances that come into play, like weather and such.

    I’ll just stick to the metals. Besides we will never see the public pile into wheat futures. Without access to the public the final parabolic bubble can’t develop.

  618. AGoldhamster

    Gary – March 17, 2011 12:40 PM

    This is a post – with which I agree.
    But one has to read slowly and to digest every word.

    ———-

    But there is again an arrogant part.

    Where from do you know that chartists or technicans are half idiots?

    Where from do you know that I or any other technican – ignores fundamentals?
    Sorry – but that’s just again just plain arrogant.

    My friend – if I were not 100% convinced by the fundamentals – do you think I would be with around 90% of my liquid net worth in physical? And in physical since a decade?

    The more interesting question though will be – to have an exit strategy.
    As we are heading into the most volatile and devasting 1-2 years most of us have ever witnessed in their life.
    Now a question for you – do you have an exit strategy for PMs?

    What will you do with your PM holdings once, according to your theory, the buck hits it 3-year low?

  619. Bruce

    AGoldhamster: Why do you say –

    “As we are heading into the most volatile and devasting 1-2 years most of us have ever witnessed in their life.”

    ??

  621. AGoldhamster

    And again – my exit strategy will not be dependant of a currency.

    As both the dollar as well as the Euro might collapse.

    To recognize deleveraging and to recognize the start of the next deflation will be the point.

    Not whether the buck or Euro hits a low or not.

  622. Gary

    B,
    Don’t get caught up in the whole manipulation nonsense. We heard this all the way up out of the Jan. bottom. Every day that didn’t rally big someone, somewhere, would blame manipulation. Then of course once the consolidation was completed we would see another big leg up.

    It’s pretty easy to figure out why gold and silver didn’t explode higher today by just examining your own emotions.

    Even though the dollar was down big were you confident enough to wade in with both guns blazing today? No, of course you weren’t. The recent correction has made you nervous.

    Do you think anyone else feels any different than you do?

  624. Gary

    Of course I have an exit plan.

    I know how long to expect the dollar and gold cycle to run. I know what to look for at a final C-wave top and dollar three year cycle low.

    I’ve said all along that I would exit all precious metal positions as close to the C-wave top as I can. I don’t want to ride a D-wave down.

    I do know what to look for at a D-wave bottom and I will be buying back for the next A-wave rally.

  625. AGoldhamster

    I don’t trade futures and have wheat, corn, sugar and coffee and brent and gold and silver available for trading. 24/5. CFDs.

    Also softs are available via ETFs.

    At Kitco Cyclist recommends Softs, Energy and PMs in that order.

    So softs are available for the public.

  627. Gary

    Hammy,
    You’re kidding yourself if you think the public is going to pile into grains and drive a massive bubble.

    The public will pile into gold though just like they piled into tech stocks and just like they piled into real estate.

    Ultimately that is what drives a bubble, participation by the general public into an asset that they consider to be “bullet proof”.

  628. Gary

    I don’t own any physical at the moment.

    I can get a better return with investment vehicles like SIL, AGQ and SLW. But I will liquidate all precious metal holdings when I think the C-wave has come to end or has stretched far enough that it becomes too dangerous to stay in any longer.

  630. David

    This sounds like it was lifted from you, Gary, but it’s not Toby Connor. It’s Michael Murphy of New World Investor:

    Paradoxically, New World Investor’s Michael Murphy seems to be getting more bullish.

    He wrote recently: “What we saw today was emotional panic. Panicking never makes anyone any money. If you can keep your head when everyone around you is losing theirs, great bargains can be had. The simple fact is the world isn’t going to end because of the earthquake in Japan. Japan’s GDP will go up as they rebuild, not down. Once emotions cool off, and they always do eventually cool off, the market will realize that and get back to doing what it was doing before the tsunami hit.”

    Which is, according to Murphy, “starting to discount accelerating inflation and a dollar crisis as Bernanke’s “print money” strategy fails. Once this passes, the market will get back to discounting the true fundamentals and I expect we will soon see a powerful rebound in stocks and precious metals … if silver heads down today towards $33 and you can get ProShares Ultra Silver ETF (AGQ 187.73, +0.28, +0.15%) on a spike down, it should be a heck of a trade.”

  631. AGoldhamster

    Bruce … cycles related. Too long a story to explain. Study Cyclists posts at Kitco (you will need a long time) and study Steven Puetz’s book about UCT.

    Around 2015/2016 will be the low for this economic cycle – and at the same time the highs of PMs. And Low for stocks relative to gold.

    After around June/July this summer the first deflationairy wave to start. Not sure yet how deep it will be. Could also be grinding or sideways. See the Bradley for 2011.
    Though latest late in 2011 or early 2012 possibly the highs for Gold and everything else.

    Thereafter helmets on. Or the next huge trading opportunity – short the hell out of all markets.
    And pray that your broker is already government owned (mine is … hehe) and survives the drama to come.

    These are projections I won’t bet a cent on. These are crystal ball projections which are just for fun – or for studying cycles.

    As only charts will be the ultimate guide.

  634. Beksachi

    Gary,

    Your comments:

    “Even though the dollar was down big were you confident enough to wade in with both guns blazing today? No, of course you weren’t. The recent correction has made you nervous.

    Do you think anyone else feels any different than you do?”

    This is a very interesting perspective you flesh out!

    (You are correct- I am very nervous, and only took partial positions today. My plan is to average in next few days).

    Effectively, what you are saying is to sometimes look within your own mind & psychology to understand price action rather than what I have doing (poring red eyed over several blog sites/newsletters in hopes of learning TA and inside scoops).

    Good learning!

  635. rick

    Gary
    This PM cycle concept strikes a chord with me. Do you have any books you can recommend, or are you considering writing something that can explain it comprehensively?

  637. Gary

    I also think the next deflationary wave will hit sometime this year and continue into 2012 (the next 4 year cycle low for stocks).

    I think the stock market has probably already topped. Commodities, at least most of them should still have another surge higher as the dollar crisis intensifies. Then they also will get sucked down into the deflationary spiral (3 year cycle low in the CRB).

  639. Gary

    No books that I know of. I do explain how I use cycle theory in the terminology document. That would be a start.

  640. AGoldhamster

    T.J.Rand … re Yen … from a tokyo based trader:

    Everybody talked about mega repatriation trades in yen but nobody actually seen any “mega” trades related to repatriation rather than stops triggerring trades.
    Many still bull USD against the Yen. Some expecting some sort of joint-Intervention will be carried out this Friday. Others are simply believe that USD is oversold and should trade back to 85 Yen.
    My view is that USDJPY is near it’s bottom. Another try on the downside may be seen as good entry for Long Term trade.

  642. AGoldhamster

    Think Indexes will bottom latest around first or second week of April.

    Later on to new highs. Market makers need to get rid of as many stocks as possible and hence have to suck in as many longs and bulls as possible.

    To achieve that goal – there highly likely is another VERY “convincing” rally. As you have stated especially in hard assets, energy and food.
    CBs will provide all the necessary liquidity – given the drama right now. So that pension funds and governments and banks can earn some more bucks. And keep all the illusion alive.

    Technically – right now we are building the left S of a huge SHS. June the H. End of 2011 the right S.

    Again – just worthless and in fact useless projections.

  645. Gary

    If the daily cycle runs a “normal” duration the final low will come closer to the end of April first of May. Actually I expect the stock market to put in it’s yearly cycle low within a week or two of the one year anniversary of last years flash crash.

    But yes the dollar collapse will briefly send clueless traders into stocks thinking they will find protection from the sinking dollar there. They won’t.

    The only real protection from a dollar crisis is in the commodity markets.

  647. Steven

    Any clue what impact the G-7 meeting that will be held shortly will have on the dollar (but most importantly the PMs)? Seems like the thrust of the meeting is the Yen but also the global recovery and I suppose there is a possibility of more liquidity coming out of the G-7 in a coordinated fashion? Any thoughts?

  648. Gary

    I’ve said this before. These big cycles can’t be stopped. Nothing the G-7 does can halt the dollar collapse at this point.

    The fate of the dollar was sealed when Ben foolishly ran QE1. When he then did QE2 he threw gasoline on the fire.

  650. David

    That’s legally actionable, in my opinion. He literally cut-and-pasted your charts with your text on them.

    It’s very difficult to prove plagiarism of ideas in court, but when someone lifts the actual text, that’s a different story.

    That said, it’s admirable that you’re able to keep your cool about this. I’ve been plagiarized myself, and it drove me crazy.

    Of course, he’s probably reading this right now. Maybe he’ll copy it and put it in his nightly report 😉

  651. MrMiyagi

    You can disable copy/paste on a webpage. I’m not Mr HTML myself but it can be done rether simply.
    There are ways around it but it takes some effort.

  653. David

    Miyagi,

    Presumably he could just produce his own copies of Gary’s charts. In this case he was too lazy to do even that.

    The bigger point is that Michael Murphy has stolen Gary’s work — and is presumably using it to gain new subscribers from having it featured on Marketwatch.

    By rights, that’s Gary Savage’s publicity (and Gary’s subscribers), not Murphy’s. The guy should at least be outed to Peter Brimelow, but it’s Gary’s business how he handles it.

  655. Ben

    My thought is that if the guy simply steals, how useful will he turn out to be? I’d suggest posting charts with a faint watermark on them, very large, that says © Gary Savage — that is, it goes across 90% of the width of the chart. Just to make him work a bit more while he’s stealing.

    You probably can review web browser stats to see who has downloaded that image and have your webmaster block that IP — he can always use another, but he’ll know you are on to him.

  657. Ben

    Jennifer, I actually received the very first e-mail spam in history, and that’s exactly what I did and many of the two or three thousand who got it. Crashed the guy’s server over and over. I found the largest benign file I could, around 1 megabyte, and sent it to him several times. A couple weeks later, an article about this advertisement appeared in one of my trade journals — PC Week I think. The word “spam” didn’t appear for another year or two. I didn’t get another spam for weeks. It wasn’t even the Internet yet. Still, I suggest everybody send him some love. Send him your favorite JPEG image, preferably about 10 megabyes, to share the love.

  658. Ben

    This was the message I received one day, from these two lawyers. I was so furious… little did I know there would be billions a day in another 15 years…

    From Wiki:
    The first major commercial spam incident started on March 5, 1994, when a husband and wife team of lawyers, Laurence Canter and Martha Siegel, began using bulk Usenet posting to advertise immigration law services. The incident was commonly termed the “Green Card spam”, after the subject line of the postings. Defiant in the face of widespread condemnation, the attorneys claimed their detractors were hypocrites or “zealouts”, claimed they had a free speech right to send unwanted commercial messages, and labeled their opponents “anti-commerce radicals.” The couple wrote a controversial book entitled How to Make a Fortune on the Information Superhighway.[21]

  659. Jennifer

    Ha, I was just kidding. But it could give you something to do since nothing is going here today.

    Wow first spam ever huh? Thats a story for the grandkids 🙂

  668. n1tro

    Hamster,

    Thanks for the post. Hope you hang around a bit and give us your inputs. Saves me the trouble of going to different forums and volumes of threads. 🙂

  670. Le Fou

    LOL! That’s incredible! Lifting both your text and your charts with the text on them.

    I guess imitation is the highest form of flattery. Only one problem:

    Knavery and flattery are blood relations.
    Abraham Lincoln

  673. Rob L.

    Anyone,

    I am looking at Goldcorp warrants which were hit hard in this recent downward move. They are due to expire in only 3 months.

    Since they are so close to their expiry date would this affect price appreciation, either positively or negatively? The strike price of the warrant has been met.

  676. Shalom Bernanke

    nitro1,

    I’m hanging on to my physical for several years past this C-wave top. The only drawback is that we can’t leverage it, but that also makes it the safest, b/c nobody else can, either.

  678. Poly

    Libya no fly zone passed security council, really moving gold/silver after markets.

    Would be nice to get back to some good old mid-east turmoil….kidding of course.

  680. Poly

    It’s an explicit backing of “rebel militia” in an oil rich country. It’s promoting a LOT of turmoil and could be the jolt the rebels need to over throw a dictator.

  682. n1tro

    i’m going to selloff my paper silver and juniors but I hate leaving money on the table. Interesting to know what people holding quite a larger amount like Hamster than me thinks so I can decide soon.

  692. jeff

    0 ok
    mom has had physical since the 70s
    i think she is going to sell, since we found gary ( im not sure the car will hold it )
    and then buy it back

  698. n1tro

    you got junk silver or actual eagles? It’s a pain in the ass to carry one of those monster boxes although you get a good workout

  702. AGoldhamster

    n1tro … do NOT decide anything based on my comments!!!

    As highly likely I have quite a different trading style – than is yours. I.e. I can act 24h a day.
    Or I tend to change my mind very quickly if something changes out there. I.e. the no-fly zone, just established, already made me act.

    Also sometimes I’m hedging positions. As a savety net. Maybe I go long gold and hedge by going short the main markets. Or in the case of war I have a big Brent long position and just a small gold position. There are so many ways to trade and act …

    I also think that to some degree I’m a momentum trader. That is I jump in when I see a strong move – and leave once I think the majority of the move is over.
    Such a trade might last minutes or days or a week.

    Also I act very fast, when the trend changes. I may be out again when you are still in. Or trailing stops are hit. Also the size of positions makes a HUUUUUGE difference.

    Believe me it doesn’t work that way. As you will definitely NOT be able to follow my actions.
    But exactly that type of trading leads to ruin.
    Because you are always too late.

    Finally I have said I’m net flat because I have conflicting indicators. That means I’m neither bearish nor bullish. That means I have not said you should sell.

    But I have said that Saudi Arabia and Lybia ARE important. Exactly these two countries are the reasons that I’m NOT bearish – and anytime ready to accept the new and maybe stronger development. War and more bombs in Lybia provides a savety net under Gold and lits a fire under Crude.

    In short – stop that nonsense of trading based on someone elses advice – without having your own plan and money and risk management.

    As for the question of selling my physical: highly likely I will not sell my physical and instead try to hedge it via paper shorts.
    Physical is my most important insurrance for the case of our financial system blowing up. Physical at some point, when all trust is gone, will be difficult to buy. Either it won’t be available anymore (sorry we are sold out) or there will be a black market with very expensive prices.
    Hence I will NOT sell my physical. Except I need cash to buy a farm. Or once we are close to 2015/2016.

  703. Wes

    I am looking for a good entry to add some silver trading shares.

    Usually, once the stock market starts to correct, it will change the sentiment to bearish before it bottoms. The reason this is important is that I expect the PM’s to follow the stock market down on the retests.

    I hope to be able to use this to find a likely entry point. Absent this retest correlation, I’ll just buy strength after the swing low.

  704. Poly

    Nice report, people will either believe it and the history or get the hell away. I like playing odds that setup in favor.

    “can lead a horse to water” comes to mind.

  706. n1tro

    Thanks Hamster! I don’t blindly follow other people’s trade but I’m sure your advice is great for others just getting into the market. I read everything I can and filter what I think is relevant and base my own trades off my own risk tolerance levels.

  708. Ryan

    Great report Gary. This morning when I saw the USD puke and PM’s not move, I thought what the hell is going on and something is not right. Did I add the rest of my dry powder today? Nope, of course not, I got scared! I’ve added on the way up and I’ve added early on the correction. I’m still believing in the c wave so let’s hope the bull correct my timing mistakes.

  709. Gary

    It won’t be successful. I’ll say it again these big cycles can’t be stopped.

    The Fed has been printing and buying treasuries for almost a year in the attempt to keep interest rates down. It’s failed miserably.

    No one can stop the dollar collapse at this point.

  715. Robert

    G-7 countries announce joint currency intervention

    WASHINGTON (AP) — Finance officials from the Group of Seven major industrialized countries have agreed on coordinated currency intervention to support Japan’s economy following a devastating earthquake.

    It will mark the first time the G-7 countries have jointly intervened in currency markets since the fall of 2000.

    In a joint statement issued following emergency discussions, the G-7 officials said that the United States, Britain, Canada and the European Central Bank will join with Japan in a “concerted intervention” in currency markets Friday.

  717. Gary

    Just artificially inflating the dollar index by debasing another currency doesn’t take dollars out of circulation. It’s why gold rose last summer even though the dollar was rallying hard.

    Notice how gold is still rising this evening even though the dollar is up. It’s because the dollar really isn’t stronger. Eventually the manipulation will fail and the dollar will continue to crash against all currencies and gold.

  718. Rob L.

    With all that has transpired since the swing low on Jan. 28th, AGQ will almost double from today’s close if $50 silver is reached.

  723. DG

    Gary: I am looking to short US stocks. For a while you were saying that stocks would go up until the dollar bottomed. Now you seem to feel the SPX has started down already and that we will get only a short bounce that fails to make new highs. I take it then that IF you wanted to short you’d do it even before the 3-year cycle low on the dollar has occurred. Comment please.

  725. Gary

    Well I personally wouldn’t for several reasons.

    One; if Ben forces enough liquidity into the market enough of it may stick to make shorting dangerous.

    Two; I have no capital to waste on little profits shorting. Even in the best of times that’s a very tough way to make money.

    Three; There will be plenty of time to short stocks once the dollar bottoms and we have deflationary forces on our side. Like I’ve said many times in the past the percentage move from 100 to 20 is 80%. The percentage move from 80 to 20 is 75%.

    One doesn’t need to catch the top to make money on the short side.

    Finally I would never even consider shorting without seeing at least one more large selling on strength number. Yes they aren’t a great timing tool but almost every single significant correction has been preceded by or followed closely by one of these.

    I suspect we will soon see one of those massive SoS days where not only the SPY is dumped but every big bell weather stock is also unloaded into an up day. When we saw that in Dec. 07 it was a pretty good sign that the bear had begun for real.

    I think we will see it again. I would prefer to wait until we get that signal before I click over to bear mode. Right now capital will get a much better return just riding the C-wave finale.

    That’s my opinion anyway.

  729. pvm999

    Gary,

    Th November low marked the intermediate cycle trough. That would mean that this is week 19. Wouldn’t that place the dollar in the timing band for another intermediate cycle trough.

    Having a trough now would not sync with expecting a rally in precious metals.

    Do you think the intermediate dollar cycle may stretch to 30 weeks, then?

  730. DG

    Great, Gary. Thanks much. The SoS makes sense to me. Your math is right of course that it doesn’t matter where you do it, but that’s never what I am looking at. As you have seen, I just need an entry where I can identify a sensible tight stop. The “have we topped yet” question had me wondering whether to hold for a smash or take a 5-10% gain. And with a tight stop if Ben forces stocks up, no problem. It can take me a few tries to get the right entry, but once I do I expect to make some nice money short the Q’s (and probably Beanie’s SMH!)

    I am not all in on PM’s and never will be so I always have some cash for other attractive things. I would not sell silver to short stocks right before we go parabolic!

  733. ALEX

    Just finished catching upon the blog

    that Murphy guy is BOGUS!! His charts were lifted from the subscription report- not just the opening article of this blog.

    He also has other charts that show fractal charts..those are lifted from another site too.

    He credited the ‘Adens’ and others when he quoted them, but didnt bother to credit charts or comments from Gary. WRONG, just WRONG!! And he is a sub here…which means he is ‘one of us’ boys!

    He may be reading this blog now, gathering the work of others…Hey, Judas Murphy , whats your blog name???

    If you think you’ve done nothing wrong, maybe claiming there s no copyright …then stand up for UR actions=be proud- and out yourself.

    HELLO??

  735. jeff

    traderlady

    hi, a friend of mine in florida was going to sell his silver last week . i told him nooo just wait about 40 days and i would call him and tell him when to sell. i tried to tell him about smt but he was less responsive than most. he is in a annuitey and is sooo very safe
    but he said there are 2 old coin shops that have been around a long time there and one pays cash for coins unrecorded

  738. Gary

    The gold:silver ratio has nothing at all to do with the stock market. It’s a completely unrelated correlation.

    Silver is just moving back towards it’s historic average of 20 oz. of silver to 1 oz. of gold. By the time this C-wave is over I expect the ratio to drop to 33-35.

  739. Beksachi

    Gary,

    At John T’s partner website (link below), he shows clearly what you guys have been saying: in 08′, the $ dropped suddenly- carrying down with it the stock market BUT PMs went up.

    Most of the time I am used to stock market and dollar are inversely correlated (lower dollar means higher stock prices).

    Is it just the timing/nature of “cycles” that breaks this inverse relationship temporarily?

    http://thetsitrader.blogspot.com/

  740. Gary

    A three year cycle low is associated with an severe inflationary period. During the last one oil surged to $147 a barrel. Stocks can’t hold up under that kind of pressure.

    They won’t this time either.

    There is no free lunch in this world, no matter how badly Bernanke would like there to be.

    There will be terrible consequences because of his attempt to print prosperity.

  742. jeff

    james
    jim rodgers dumping his cash =)
    maybe he is on garys smt and is going to go long pm’s , maybe that would take us to 2000 gold this cycle lol

  744. Beksachi

    Got it- understood!

    When oil moves into a danger zone due to inflation(~150$), economy tanks, and inverse correlation between stocks and dollar breaks down.

    Thanks

  750. Paul

    Gary,
    Can you give me some names, you respect in cycle analysis, to look up? I’m interested in learning more about this method. Mahalo

  751. Jay Lin

    AGoldhamster,

    I totally agree with you that one cannot follow your market view nor your trading positions. But I deeply appreciate your independent view on the market.

    I have no idea why some people are negative on your posts. I think your short term views are absolutely terrific. Perhaps those people have longer time frame and do not want to worry about short term turns and swings.

    BTW, do you offer any subscription service to keep up with your short term market views?

  756. Robert

    Gary,
    What do you think of the work of Martin Armstrong ? He was just released from jail this week.He has done a ton of work on cycles and is one brilliant person.

  757. Gary

    I haven’t really read much of his stuff. Mostly I just stick with the cycles that I’m familiar with. They have worked very well for me for several years now.

  759. Mission

    Gary, do you have any plans to lighten up at the November lows and wait to see how it plays out, assuming we get a bounce? Or is it Old Turkey all the way now?

  761. bamster

    Gary,

    I’ve been reading many different blogs and I would say 90% were calling for a big correction or are short. I would say there is going to be alot of fire power behind this next move.

  764. jeff

    mission
    there will be no lightening up unless something changes. everything is the same dollar is falling and there is nothing that can change that.

    did i almost sound like gary?
    shoot not even close

  776. Veronica

    The countdown has started:)My system will go to a buy at 1431 today.Hopefully we chop around here for a couple more days to allow my buy stop to come down a bit more.

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