The recent rally in gold, oil, and commodities in general has been extremely powerful. Despite protestations to the contrary by our clueless Fed president, it’s very clear what is driving this massive commodity inflation when you look at this next chart. That’s right we are now seeing the unintended consequences of printing money.
Just as soon as the dollar started to collapse commodities began to surge. And if you think it’s bad now wait till the dollar breaks below the November pivot. When that happens, and it will happen, it will signal that we now have a yearly cycle that has topped in only 4 weeks and has already moved below the last yearly cycle bottom. That my friends is an incredibly bearish sign.
At that point the market will no longer be able to delude itself that everything is OK. At that point inflationary pressures will surge out of control. At that point Bernanke will understand the magnitude of his catastrophic blunder when he ran QE2. And at that point it will be too late to stop.
Actually this path was already determined when Ben opted for QE1 to abort the debt cleansing process that was underway in 08 and 09. Yes he bought us a little time but the ultimate cost is going to be much greater than anyone could have foreseen. It would have been much better if the depression was allowed to run it’s course. We would be most of the way through the pain by now and ready to come out the other side into a golden age. Instead we have another decade or more of misery ahead of us. All because our leaders don’t have the foresight to see the consequences of their actions.
Now on a more immediate note the dollar is due for a dead cat bounce anytime now. When it does it should force a brief correction in gold, oil and commodities in general.
This will be your last buying opportunity before the final parabolic move begins in earnest. Once the dollar breaks below that November low all hell should break lose in the currency markets forcing all commodities, especially gold and silver into what will likely be one of the most powerful rallies in history.
Jay, I pulled a little out of MDW and SWC. Dumped AZC altogether. Did real well with AZC, but it is a copper play like NAK and the copper chart seems to be saying good bye. The 3 silvers you mentioned, I am going to continue to hold. Intend to do the same as you. Move it to AGQ on a corrective move.
Gary, 1st paragraph says weeks instead of months if it matters…..
Brian,
Weeks is correct. This intermediate cycle topped in only 4 weeks.
Gary,
In your nightly update, for gold when talking about a dip below a number completing a swing high, is that just an intraday move or a close below that you’re looking for?
Thanks
Swings can be formed by intraday moves.
Wow! I had to go back and look at that chart. Sure enough it did.
Gary,
You said: “Instead of trying to guess at a time or price that silver will correct from one will probably have better results if they watch the dollar for a bounce off the November support level.”
Are you saying this is the best way to determine a top in silver and, if so, what is the November support level (I assume this is also the pivot)?
Thanks!
Steven,
“or a swing low, whichever comes first”
Ted Butler made his private newsletter public today for those interested.
The big surprise was in the silver COT, where the big 4 increased their net short position by 3000 contracts on the previously mentioned reduction of 1300 contracts in the total commercial net short position. This increase in the big four’s short position broke the pattern of a reduction in the concentrated short silver position that had been in force for months. The increase in the concentrated short silver position was so unexpected by me that I thought, at first, it must have been a mistake. Since the Bank Participation Report was released late yesterday, an hour or two after the COT, my first thought in the interim was that it would not be JPMorgan increasing its concentrated short position, but most likely the other three entities in the big four. After all, with all the negative attention (and losses) accruing to JPMorgan and its big silver short position, there would be no way JPM would have accounted for the 3000 contract increase in the COT for the big four.
If the silver COT was a surprise, then the Bank Participation Report was a shocker. There was a net increase in the US bank category of 6000 contracts to 25,000 held net short in silver. JPMorgan’s net silver short position, which had decreased by 11,000 contracts over the preceding three months to 19,000, had suddenly ballooned to 25,000 contracts (125 million ounces). From my reading of both these reports, it appears that the big increase in silver short selling by JPM took place during the last COT reporting week, even for the BP Report. Before I continue, let me explain that I consider JPMorgan to effectively account for all or the bulk of the entire US bank category in the Bank Participation Report for a variety of mathematical reasons. However, it matters little if there is another US bank also holding a significant net short position in COMEX silver, as all that would mean is that two US banks are colluding to manipulate the price of silver and not just one bank acting alone.
continued on next post
Two and a half years ago, I had a very similar experience of shock over a Bank Participation Report. This was before anyone knew that the Bank Participation Report even existed. The August 2008 Report caused me to write a series of articles that started with “The Smoking Gun” in the fall of that year.http://news.silverseek.com/TedButler/1219417468.php In turn, my analysis and writing led to the current CFTC silver investigation (still unresolved) and the revelation that JPMorgan was the big COMEX silver short by way of taking over Bear Stearns. I further believe that the revelation of the true size and nature of the concentrated silver short position has contributed to the current movement towards position limits by the CFTC.
As much as the August 2008 Bank Participation Report was shocking, the current one is even more so. That’s because we know so much more today than we did back then. We have waited two and half years to hear anyone legitimately explain how a US bank holding a short position equal to 25% of world production isn’t manipulation. No explanation has been forthcoming, nor is it likely to ever be offered. We know now that concentration is the prime requisite for manipulation. To witness the most concentrated participant suddenly increase its silver short position by more than 30% is something almost beyond comprehension.
continued on next post
Let me walk you through the mechanics of what just took place and then I’ll speculate on the motivation of JPMorgan increasing its silver short position so dramatically. Over the past two COT reporting weeks, it has been primarily a commercial versus commercial type affair. The big technical funds have largely refrained from adding to their net long silver position, even though prices have climbed very sharply. Two weeks ago the raptors (the smaller commercials away from the big 8) increased their net short position to 4000 contracts, the highest level in four years. The raptors were selling to the smaller unreported category traders who were buying. This week, the raptors bolted from their entire short position, buying it back completely and leaving them flat (not net long or short). JPMorgan was the sole seller to the raptors’ buying, resulting in the big increase in JPM’s short position.
As far as the motivations behind this trading, the most plausible explanation for the raptors running from their newly initiated big short position is the stark reality that shorting silver has been a very bad deal. My guess is that the raptors did their homework on silver only after they put on the big short and started to lose money on rising prices. That homework persuaded them to get off the short side of silver pronto, which they did. JPMorgan’s motivation for suddenly and greatly increasing its silver short position is less clear and more troubling. My own guess is that the JPMorgan silver trader thought he had no choice but to sell many more contracts short in order to control the price and protect their existing short position. That’s because there was no one else left to sell. If JPMorgan didn’t sell, no one else would have (at prevailing prices). That’s the problem and it goes to the heart of the crime. The raptors didn’t want to sell, nor did the 5 thru 8 large traders. Ditto for basically all the other silver traders. That left JPMorgan as the sole silver seller, as the COT and Bank Participation Reports clearly document. Please think about this.
continued on next post
We know that concentration in any market is to be avoided. The whole thrust of commodity law goes towards preventing concentration. We know that the ideal profile of a free market is where a wide diversity of market participants competes on both the buy and sell sides of the market. We also know that the most extreme state of concentration possible is where there is, effectively, only one buyer or one seller. Therefore, what the latest COT and Bank Participation Reports just confirmed was that the most extreme form of concentration possible just occurred during the latest reporting week.
This is the key point – what would have happened if JPMorgan hadn’t sold short the additional 6,000 silver contracts (30 million oz) when they did? Asked differently, in the current market conditions, what price would have been required to induce other market participants to sell the 6,000 contracts if JPMorgan hadn’t sold? My guess is that would have taken a price over $40 or $50 to attract that much legitimate selling. The fact that JPMorgan was the sole seller is the clearest proof possible that silver has been manipulated.
So egregious was this latest increase in JPMorgan’s short position that I am inclined to think that it may have been done on an unauthorized or rogue trader basis. Perhaps JPM management and the CFTC are not yet aware of it, seeing how recently it occurred. After all, the COT and Bank Participation Reports were only published less than 24 hours ago. (As is my custom, I will be sending this article to the Commission and JPMorgan and the CME Group).
continued on next post
I realize that I am making serious allegations of violations of commodity law, as there is no market crime more serious than manipulation. At the very least, this new government data release is so disturbing that it should be addressed immediately. Silence on the part of JPMorgan, the exchange and the CFTC is no longer constructive. If my accusations are off-base, then I should be set straight. I’m not out to cause trouble; I am trying to help correct what I see as a very serious market problem.
I can’t help but think that Chairman Gensler of the CFTC will be troubled by this recent action by JPMorgan to substantially increase its already concentrated silver short position. In recent speeches he has indicated his support for position limits to guard against concentration. Please scroll down to the section on position limits in this recent speech to see what I mean.http://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/SpeechesTestimony/opagensler-71.htmlChairman Gensler also solicits your public comments on this issue, as I have done previously. I found it interesting that he singled out position limits in this speech for encouraging you to comment. By the way, the number of public comments on position limits is now close to 3,000, a truly remarkable outpouring of public sentiment. http://comments.cftc.gov/PublicComments/CommentList.aspx?id=965
Please don’t assume that the sharp increase in short selling by JPMorgan is automatically bearish for the price of silver. Yes, such manipulative short selling in the past has led to sharp sell-offs and could again. But things do change and current conditions in silver are vastly different than they have been in the past. While we must be prepared for a sell-off (by not holding on margin), this situation could (and should) blow up in JPM’s face. They are increasingly isolated which makes them both dangerous and vulnerable. Most of you are holding silver from prices much below the current levels. This bestows on you a power that few newcomers to silver possess, namely, the power of a long term perspective and the ability to withstand short term price gyrations. You have a price cushion and the power of knowledge that should enable you to persevere against any short term manipulation. The proper approach is to hold silver to go much higher and not to lose your position, just as it has been all along.
That aside, you should be disturbed enough about the revelations in the new COT and Bank Participation Reports to rattle on the cages of JPM, the CME and the CFTC. Just as a head’s up, I may make portions of this report available in the public domain if I conclude it will benefit subscribers. Let me think about it a bit. In the interim, please contact these parties if you feel so inclined. You know I will.
Ted Butler
March 7, 2011
If the banks are raising shorts it’s simply because gold and silver are due for a daily cycle correction. Not some mysterious attempt to manipulate silver lower.
We aren’t the only ones in the world using cycle theory by a long shot. I guarantee every large firm in the world probably has a cycle analyst. And I’m certain JPM has one.
That may very well be true and I’ve had that thought myself. However, do you think the cycle in gold/silver will be changed if so many people are “playing” it, so to speak? Of course if you’re just looking at the dollar that is a much bigger market and this point may be moot.
Is it possible minors may lead any stock market collapse (when it happens)and gold silver physical and ETF’s trail
I have less than 5% in juniors but thinking of moving them to agq or sil
WOW a picture says a thousand words! What a graphic presentation of what is happening real time.
Gary, all I can say, is I am so thankful I was invited to your seminar and have learned so much from you and your bloggers. Hopefully, I won’t do any more stupid moves (like I sold 500 shares of SLW because it was falling in January), listening to the gurus to cut your losses.
I have one question, I spent all this weekend and today cleaning up my funds to get rid of all the clutter in Gold and silver funds and concentrating on your picks in silver and GLD. I have some funds to decide on keeping or just move into silver. Should I hang onto small amounts of GDX GDXJ right now or move those funds into Silver. I will be on vacation when the expected time comes to sell top of C wave and won’t be by a computer day and night so I want to be prepared and not have a lot of sell buttons to push.
Reading your blogs, helps knowing, I am not alone waiting on this big Wave to crest. YOu have a great group on board and hope to get more involved. But been busy reading and learning so far.
Thanks again for being so forthright and no nonsense.
Since I have been following you,
I just delete all my other advisors, subscriptions and tipsters and told them to keep their tips and advice and their fees and take me off their list. I have found someone who honestly walks his talk and sticking with him. Thanks for providing a great service!
I just did a brief review of my last six months of trading in one of my brokerage accounts. A great exercise that I’m sure everyone here practices from time to time.
Anyway, the message that glared out at me…again…is that I would benefit from less trading. Now, let me clarify, I have probably traded 1/10 as often in the last 12 months since really taking in some of the lessons I’ve learned from Gary’s service, but I still have sold positions in the middle of intermediate cycles, each of which would be hugely more profitable had I just held on. My practice during the next leg of the bull will be to hold all positions I accumulate until the end of intermediate cycles, and then sell half.
I just don’t see the reason to jump in and out when the bull is so obviously trending higher. Next round I will accumalate a large stake at the end of the D-Wave/beginning of the A-wave, and will hold a core until the end of the C-Wave, trading around intermediate cycles. I got closer during this phase, but still see room for improvement.
That’s it. Keep up the great work Gary.
Since, I didn’t hear anything back on my Annuity question with Fidelity, I just split it between Energy and Materials. Best I could do for commodities as they have no Gold fund, which I was told they had plenty of requests for, but they have none. I usually don’t talk to Fidelity reps, cause last time I asked a question, the advisor scoffed at me and told me going all gold was too volatile…
fat boy,
I just asked the same question, have similar small amounts in miners and wondering if i should just get rid of them and move to silver. I just don’t have experience in miners, so not sure if they lead the way or follow.
Anyone on this blog have reading recommendations for commodity investing? New to the game and interested in learning about futures. Thanks in advance.
Anyone on this blog have any book recommendations for learning about commodities trading? Thanks in advance.
cs
futures are pretty cut and dry. if you go to boarders and get anything they have on sale you will be fine. any broker should take time to coach you also.
i have one broker who i bought a smt subscription for. he is on board with gary and real helpful if you want to speak to him
Gary, what makes you so certain of the C wave, dollar dead cat?
I need to divest of some commodities and I sure hope you’re right!
I have a question, I understand that we will sell silver at $50… will we sell GOLD at that time also, or does Silver lead the way. Just trying to be clear if we sell everything when silver is $50.
thanks in advance… just trying to get things clear in my mind.
Gary
Great job you are doing.
My Question: Will HUI catch up with silver in the remaining C wave run or silver will again outperform till end. Please reply since my major holding (90%) is in HUI and so far it has performed half compared to physical silver.
TIA
For those that have some time, read the “Decline and the Fall of the Roman Empire” by Gibbons.
Or a cliffs note version on the economic reasons of why the empire fell: http://ancienthistory.about.com/od/fallromeeconomic/a/econoffall.htm
dddddddddddddddddddddddddd
Mr Savage, you continue to proclaim the dawn of massive inflation….
Could you please quantify it, if you dare…
BTW, the first quarter is almost gone and little inflation on the horizon..
blueice…
from a female shopper on this list who buys for her family, I have seen prices on food, clothing start to go up rapidly since the end of last year.
Also, I notice that my banks offer to lock in a fixed rate over my low variable rate keeps sneaking in tiny increases on that fixed rate. That tells me times are a changing. Everyone’s costs are going up. Is that not inflation?
All if these newbies come into the room and challenge Gary so often that it is becoming ridiculous.
IndiaInvestor,
yes, Gary expects silver to outperform everything else
Bluice, it’s one thing to be blind, and another to be arrogant and blind.
I’m a real US mfr of textiles. Cotton has risen 1 yr nearly 100%. It’s real. I pay it.
Polyester, as in oil based, has risen 60% or more.
I passed along all I could without markup.
You’re in a dreamland.
Oh, and the cost of oil, as in what it costs to fill one’s car has risen 10% in the past 30 days.
But don’t let reality bite you, as I have seen that Prozac works very well.
blue,
what world are you living in? Seriously, you don’t see you grocery bill raising, gas, heating, clothes? Or do you just charge it and fail to take notice? Wake up!
I can honestly say I have seen major inflation in my accounts since subscribing to SMT.
Out of my GC at 1430, which I got in around 1415. Its testing that 4hr channel downtrend again, dollar raising… So, a quick 15 pt profit would suffice for now. I will add those above new high or around swing low/1400.
Before someone jumps on me 🙂 I still have my core position that I will hold old turkey. This low-risk trade was with extra leverage at tight stops.
Ken, you still in it?
silver on the daily chart seems to have done nothing more than a gap fill
Giant,easily readable patterns in silver.
The turn at the bottom, with fat, sluggish, long bars.
The giant W’s in Silver and gold.
And the giant parabolas, now concluding in the straight up rise.
This cost me a night of sleep. Dammit.
Gary, on the 60 min chart, the MACD hasn’t even begun to rise.
This is divergence, yes?
Should I consult MLMT?
Does this mean a lot more is in store?
But we’ve gone above the top BB.
Looks like gold, silver and the dollar are all pushing higher right now.
One of them is going to blink…
IMO, this is the breakout of gold, having been up, down and back to the prior Dec high.
Brief consolidation as in moments, and then if it rises, it’s just going to go gangbusters.
Silver’s at 36.30 more or less, still shy of the prior top of “yesterday!!”, but this has been a long, steady run, and it’s time to rest.
any of you guys working with RBS turbo’s?
Nice post Gary. I hope you’re right. Cycles say the dollar dead cat bounces here, correct?
Slumdog, get some sleep man! Sleep deprivation kills correct judgement. We need you fresh in the morning, so rest up!
I’m confused.
It looks to me that the Yearly cycle for the dollar topped in one month.
And the current intermediate cycle topped in 2 weeks, the week ending 2/18.
My system’s stop has now risen to 1413.8,April gold.
Hi Gary
Thanks for the update. What do you see happening to currency pairs such as GBP:AUD especially due to to the nature of teh Australian economuy being so commodities weighted.
Rgds
An avid reader.
All kinds of new people here. What is going on ?
Hi Gary,
Whats your opinion on World peace? Do you think it will be achieved in this C wave?
Love you by the way!!!!!! :))))
Gary,
apologies for the spelling. My seasonal model is also seeing some weakness heading into around 1st week of May which could pose a good point to buy gold.
Gary expects the D wave to start around then so I dont think he’ll agree
Terrill
I think you asked (and Fatboy too?)about ‘miners’ and how ill they perform…you said
‘I just don’t have experience in miners, so not sure if they lead the way or follow.’
Gary doesnt recommend ind. miners , since they can have ind. risk (such as floods,earthquake, etc) yet you will see many on here discuss them and trade/invest in them (I am one),especially producers with good earnings. Back to your question…
So far some of our miners are leading ,blowing away gold and surging with Silver EX:(Bought EXK, AXU, and AG, SLW on Jan 25th and never let go, bought GPL at $2.50 and $2.75…along with AGQ these are up 80% to over 100% , GDXJ is only about 30% and GDX less than 20%).
Hope that helped a little (and Gary recommends SLW and AGQ )
Swing in place, lets see if this move amounts to anything.
People asking about exit strategies and such, are asking for too much, just pay up and join the service! Its not that expensive people!
Its really unfair to ask Gary to disclose it for free or other members to share what Gary puts in his nightly reports.
agree with you Aaron
vish
world peace? really? lets hear your take on world peace and how you think that is shapeing up
regarding Vish’s comment
It must have been a joke ,because he said ( I think HE?) will world peace be accomplished in THIS C-wave-
-however it was ended with this remark
“Love you by the way!!!!!! :)))) “
so I guess that’s a nice start LOL
TZ, Either the subscriber base doubled or Kitco/Hamster disciples.
Hey Brian
You and Jayhawk look at charts the way I do,so I thought I’d share this interesting one I just found (and have not heard of on this blog yet)
Disclaimer; For now I am in about 6 stocks and not trading at this point, just juggled between them a bit. (I too sold my AZC a bit back ..it does well for trading, it repeatedly dives to the 10-20sma, so I had to trade it. done 4 now.
But check out ‘LODE’ on a 6 month chart anyways. Broke its downtrend line , decent volume,etc etc . I do not know this company ,just that they are drilling and finding high grade results. I do not know if they’re producer. I will NOT be buying this here,but its a new one for the watch list.
Bull flag forming on HUI?
Makes me wonder if the PMs pullback the miners will advance.
James
Anyone want to guess how long the dollar will rally for?
I think very short maybe 3 days. I was hoping for a dip in silver but I think we will be lucky if this just trades sideways.
Thanks Alex
I follow Gary (April 09) so agq sil slw is the G train and best for the simple folk like me.
Only picked up a few small positions to play in juniors again because it’s hard not to!!! just. A little exk pzg goro axu
Tempted to cash in and swap to garys ‘big three’ now
Apart from simplification I understood bigger funds = easier to fill sell orders come the day?
What about going 100% AGQ? Why do I need SIL and SLV? My portfolio is about $100k.
Mish, Hussman on QE
people expect that a year or two from now, goods and services will be more expensive. But if they are holding cash or money market securities, it is clear that interest earnings will not make up for those higher prices. So what do people predictably do? They hoard commodities now. When does it stop? At the point where commodities are priced high enough that they are expected to have the same negative return, relative to a broad basket of consumer goods, as cash is expected to have.
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/03/hussman-on-qe-and-iron-law-of.html
If you are going to go 100% AGQ you have to be able to emotionally handle huge volatility.
Could you survive a 20% draw down without freaking out and selling at the bottom?
TZ/Brian, can’t say I know the others, but a new (as in 3 days ago) subscriber here.
Still watching more than talking, but thought I’d say hi.
Because if you were 100% AGC, you would need to be tough enough to ride some pretty volatile swings.
Also, AGQ is no good for core position as it tends to underperform on the way down.
So most people have a core position in SIL or GLD, and a trading position in AGQ.
James r
so far dollar up, Gold up, Silver up.
Or maybe more of a sideways move (downward sloping flag) for some extended miners ,showing strength yet allowing the 10 or 20sma to catch up a bit…like EXK , the 10 & 20 sma are at $8 area.
Welcome CMT, I, too, am a new sub
and smart to listen more then ask dumb questions.
CMT
welcome
Traderlady , have read some of your posts , there are no dumb questions ,we all need to learn , and if there were…yours wouldn’t qualify anyways 🙂
Gary, did you sign up 20 new subs overnight? 🙂
Alex, That chart looks eerily similar to MDW’s on long term basis. Definitely going on the watch list.
Thanks
Arun, thanks,, yes I am in, core of physical and gold and silver miners, plus small futures position, looking for 1450. I have close stop on futures though~
Me I would not dare to make an unqualified statement on the blog
So back to reading and learning I go
For real new newbies and not just semi new newbies Gary has outlined exit strategy on premium, just read the last few months it’s all in there
My question on liquidity and filling sell orders anyone?
Alex, When we all have our private jets, lets have a reunion in Sarasota ,FL.
That was one hell of a bounce on the USD, yet it didnt even make a dent in silver’s momentum!
What a waste!
Nice dollar rally again this morning and swing in place, pieces are falling into place to script.
Considering the size of the rally, the metals are showing nice strength, only confirms the action to come, IMO. Crazy to trade around this puppy, only trade would be adding powder or reallocation.
Hard to imagine having any more fun than we had in Aug through Dec.
Gary,
Should I be worried that my miners didn’t gap up 10% again this morning? 🙂
TraderLady-
That’s always been part of my plan – live outside Key West and fly a Cessna up to the Buccaneer games. 😉
Maybe we’re finally moving into a cycle low?
Gary, As a new sub, I do not think I could take the 20% possible draw down beyond what I paid on AGQ. I do not have the wood from fall like others. What would be a more conservative mix by using SIL,SLW, and AGQ.
SB, sure seems that way, which is great.
Traderlady,
You can try SLV the silver ETF instead of AGQ.
I will be looking to jump back in with roughly 3k in to April SLW 45 calls in the next 3 days the price has already fallen more than a dollar from its high yesterday. I’d like to know what others are looking at
Traderlady
Its crazy that you said that…I’m going there in JUNE to vist my best friends wifes teenage living area! Are we gonna all have Jets by the 🙂 YAY!
Thanks RA, I can add it to the mix but have some AGQ.
Haggerty,
$3k is arbitrary, is $3k a decent chunk of your portfolio or just lottery money you could afford to lose in the hope you make big?
Alex, My home but Netjet always a second choice. lol
Traderlady,
SLV will probably be less volatile than SLW and SIL; and of course AGQ which is double leverage silver.
I really think that Gary has a crystal ball… 🙂
Traderlady…’Have jets by then’- (typo)
Brian
Yes, that chart (LODE)caught my eye, I just want to do a little research and see if they produce at all , or lose money.
Their exploration is going very well and the price increase may reflect possible buy out target. anyways, thought I’d share that for the watch list
TL,
Just keep your position size smaller if you are worried about volatility. Otherwise place your trade trigger and then turn off your computer.
I see an inverse head and shoulder forming on HUI
I’d like to see people get shaken out of their miners buy the close or early tomorrow morning.
Arun, I added one mini gold at 1424, my stop is 1410….. goldies could form a intraday low today
traderlady, Netjets is always the best choice 🙂
poly
just fun money really not going to lose my shirt about 4% of portfolio.
just limped in and bought 5 slw 44 at 2.85 april. can’t see it going much lower. Ill wait to see how the rest of the day goes
All of this certainty about $50 silver and the big C wave blowoff that’s a-comin’ and buying the bottom of the D wave–it’s making me very nervous. Seems like when traders are certain of the future, that’s when the market throws a curve ball at you.
Silver might not get to $50. What if it gets to $48 and the D wave begins crashing down fast?
Or what if silver blows right thru $50 and doesn’t stop till $60?
What if the upcoming D wave is a sideways consolidation instead of a sharp and fast drop? How will you buy the bottom of that one?
It’s easy to say I’m going to sell the top of the C wave and buy the bottom of the D wave, but in real time how will you know when that top and bottom is in?
Just seeing all this talk about how rich we’re all gonna be makes me wonder what is the market going to do to shake us out of that euphoria????
Looks like we have a swing high – buying opportunity up ahead!
NYBOT dollar index continuous just touched 77.
Ken,
You are just radically increasing the odds of a loss with these tight stops. This is a bull market. What earthly reason could you have for stopping out of a winning position?
And one certainly doesn’t want to stop out at the bottom of a daily cycle correction. The time to sell would be if the bounce out of that correction fails to make new highs and then makes a lower low.
Tight stops at meaningless levels are how big money takes your capital away from you.
One of the biggest mistakes people make is to put a tight stop on their trades. All that does is guarantee the trade never gets a chance to work.
Pima – relax my friend. All those questions are answered with a very cheap subscription to Gary’s newsletter.
And it is only this blog where people are of the same opinion regarding the C-wave. Go check out Slope of Hope for a different view.
Shalom, I’m hoping for the washout tomorrow.There is an intraday trendline on gold in low 1420’s I’m hoping will get people to buy and then cough up with one more downmove.That would also make sense with my system and some fractals I’m looking at.
What is the world is the NYBOT dollar index continuous? Are you talking about the front month? Its just March or June? None of those have touched 77 yet, close, but not there yet.
Gary, Always excellent advice. I shall have my wood for shorting the D wave. When you short the D wave do you do etf’s or indiv. stocks on energy, tech.
Strellsy,
I’m a sub and I know that Gary is excellent at keeping his subs on track. My post was more of a rant than anything.
(But it does make me nervous when a large group of traders talk with certainty about the future like we have all found the holy grail. I just don’t trust the market to be as accommodating as this talk would have us believe. 🙂
Strelly,
I think Pima is one of the “older subs” 🙂
I told you to worry, didn’t I? I covered my shorts last night during Hong Kong, reshorted everything on that pop this am. I continue to rule. You all will be slaves on one of my global estates.
Robert Pretcher will be made king of the world when all this is over. When his deflationary crap storm over takes the globe, those of us in US Bonds will dominate the weaker, lame gold and silver bugs.
Volume analysis says silver now headed for .27 cents. Gas will be .5 a gallon. Penny candy stores will take the nation by storm.
I’m now long a 50X US dollar bull fund. Short everything else. Tim Knight has hired me as his chief TA consultant for his new hedge fund.
Suckers.
Gary, if we can finally add more to our position via “the plan” … we will have a stop but assume it will a stop the fails the entire intermediate cycle … correct?
Traderlady,
I will not short PM. They are in a bull market and I don’t short bull markets.
I will look for a sector with impaired fundamentals that is stretched and in jeopardy of a regression to the mean event. Tech and energy are both candidates at the moment, but not until the 3 year dollar cycle bottoms.
vuvvy,
Very much appreciate your updates! I hope to top off my position when we get close to your stop.
Looks like that stop gets updated daily, right?
us index max today 76,976.
aaron,
The code on the ICE NYBOT futures exchange for the continuous dollar index is DXc1.
It is not a tradable contract.
vuvvy,
Your saying your looking at one more down day is that correct?
Avann,
I’m not really sure what you just asked me.
Spreads are tightening on AGQ calls.
vuvvy,
Where are you?? You posted at 3:30 AM!! Maybe that’s morning where you live? Or you’re just a night owl?
vuvvy,
I’m also sitting tight right now. I’d like to see lower prices tomorrow, or even pay today’s prices but after a couple sideways days.
Either way, the only way I add today is if we get really sharp panic move lower (like -7 or 8% in our usual names).
pima,
I’m not even selling all my stuff at $50 silver. Sure, it might not get quite there in the C-wave, or it might overshoot by $10, but that’s just the game. The important thing is to be long the monster bull, it has a long way to go. Even if you had sells at $50, and silver only gets to $49 before heading lower, the great thin about a bull is you’ll have many more opportunities to sell at favorable prices. 🙂
No worries Gary, I re-read the newsletter and got my answer … I’m trying not to put too much info into my question … I’m good
Anyone think this s a good time to buy SLW as it dropped nearly 2$ or is there more downside before the C wave?
RA, now that makes sense. Also note that the 77 is derived from charting the contracts which use different numbers, so it might be the equivalent of 77.10 on your index for instance.
I personally see resistance come in at 77.50 if the USD somehow takes out 77 convincingly. Hoping it doesnt though.
MLIL, I laughed out loud at your recent post!
(yeah, Prechter rules!)
Just to clarify the C-wave has been ongoing since $860 back in April 09.
This is just the final leg up…well I expect it to be a final leg up based on the dollars three year cycle low.
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I bought SLW and AGQ this morning, a bit more of each.
Pima,
FWIW if gold just consolidated sideways then it wouldn’t be a D-wave it would be a consolidation in an ongoing C-wave (this is what happened this past summer).
D-waves are severe regression to the mean events spawned by a parabolic rally. We need the parabolic rally before we can get the D-wave.
Pima-
You voiced a niggling concern I have about too much optimism from various blogs and industry experts. I’m not going to do anything differently, but it’s really raised my ‘wary’ factor.
I was also thinking about the c-wave falling short of 50, blowing through 50, etc…and concluded that it will have to be a line of scrimmage call. I figure we’ll just have to sort it out when we get there.
SB,
Thanks. Yeah, that’s another thing about $50 silver. If all of Gary’s subs push the sell button at 50, I believe that in itself will cause a severe correction!
I don’t have any limit sell orders at present, we’ll see what the market does. As you said, It’s a bull market!
Unless over 20% of Gary’s 1000+ subs are hedge fund managers, that wont happen 🙂
Pima, I will post my stop daily and yes it normally moves up but at times will flatten. This gold monster pretty much has taken control of my life since 2002 and i’m up at all kinds of strange hours:( My plan is to let my system trigger and then see what happens the rest of the day b4 entering additional positions, and then putting in some reasonable stops below LOD in new positions in case something unexpected happens.
AXU is holding support at the neckline of the IHS.
Miyagi,
If you want to add to your position you have to have courage to buy the dips when the bull rests. The last two one day dips (which happen to be on the last two Thursdays) I bought AGQ and SLW calls and was handsomely rewarded for buying on those dips.
This lady is pretty good…I recall hearing her interviewed on KWN years back and her calls on gold were on on the money.
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/3/6_Louise_Yamada_-_$80_Silver,_$2,000_Gold_%26_$140_Oil.html
With gold near all-time highs and silver at multi-decade highs, King World News interviewed Louise Yamada, well known for her astounding work on Wall Street. Louise had some extraordinary targets on silver and oil, and when asked gold she stated, “Gold looks fine as it is moving to a new high. Gold is probably on its way to $1,500 and then $2,000. Silver is outperforming right now, but they take turns so that is normal. Gold remains in a structural bull market that was initiated in 2002.”
When asked about silver Louise remarked, “Silver has 60% industrial usage, but because there are still the monetary concerns out there, silver represents a less expensive alternative to owning gold.
I think that silver has lifted out of a 30 year base and the whole concept of the longer the consolidation, the greater potential upside. Silver is clearly in a structural bull market.
The point and figure calculations off of this base are $40, $45, $60, $75 and $80 over months to years.” The higher end of those number would put silver well into all-time high territory in nominal terms. She commented, “These are short and intermediate and longer-term targets over a period of years.”
Also, can someone give me the link of that Youtube video which showed the performance of silver in outside US hours vs inside US hours?
Haggerty, yes one more down day but we all know gold loves to throw curves, screwballs and the occasional spitter:(
Gary,
I hear you about the D wave. I just wonder whether the market will behave well enough to conform to that expectation.
You bring up a good point though. What if this C wave extends? Instead of a D wave this summer, what if we get only sideways consolidation and then yet another leg up in the C wave??
This is more of a rhetorical question not really expecting an answer. If that were to happen, you would start to see it and report on it in your nightly updates. I’m glad I’m a sub 🙂
(Just be careful out there on those rocks, eh? That brain of yours is very valuable! The Matterhorn looks like one hair raising climb. You have any interest in doing Mt. Blanc while you’re over there?)
Miyagi,
I’ll focus more on the metal or a miner index than the individual name I’m looking to buy. Once I’d buy the index or metal, then I purchase the names on my list.
For those waiting to add. If this is the move down into a daily cycle low then we can’t get a bottom until a swing low is formed. Instead of trying to guess at a bottom just wait for the swing or if you want to try and pick a bottom I outlined my plan in last nights report.
Backtesting the rising trendline I mentioned yestesrday on the daily chart. If we break back below we may get the setup for the daily cycle low we are looking for.
I think we will all be competing with SLW at selling at 50.00. Didn’t the CEO say they will start hedging there? Maybe better to sell at 47.00.
Thanks wingman and Gary.
I’m not letting go of any of my shares SB. You can’t have em! 🙂
Thanks Brian-I just about did that yesterday, but don’t want to get cute.
Wingman and BobLH- I tend to agree. Not sure this bull is going to give us neat, perfect daily swing lows to gauge and buy to the penny. Just add on large sell offs during AM hours a piece at a time if you are looking to get back in or get more in play.
The last $5-$7 of the Silver run to the top will be very far from orderly and likely to occur over just a handful of days. I doubt there will be many here capable of riding it to the top, in spite of Gary’s words. Hell $40’s are going to be difficult for most.
But from current levels, $45, $47 or $52 will all reward beyond any dream.
Gary,
You mentioned in your report last night that the dollar dead cat bounce could last 3-5 days. You also mentioned $77. My question is, are you looking more at a time frame or a price for this dead cat dollar bounce?
Time frame.
SLW hedging? Bad idea!
Actually it’s an outstanding idea if they catch the top of the C-wave.
Thnx. And I can’t even tell you how much I’ve benefited from those nightly reports.
Anyone on this forum not subscribing to the reports, you’re blowing it. The best $200 I’ve ever spent!
The last 2 sessions…Hmmm, pretty blatant. Silver and gold rocketing in NY, then BAM. Please. I know Gary doesn’t believe the manipulation, but it’s reallllly hard to ignore that type of action.
I just finished cleaning house on miners and went with Gary’s plan. 🙂 There’s a sale going on!
I think I will take Gary’s advice now and just turn off the computer, see you all in a couple weeks!
Pima,keep in mind my system has elements of time in the parameters but the signals themselves sre not based on time. There’s nothing saying we can’t make new highs before we hit any sort of sell signal.
PIMA
just to add to your C-Wave top thoughts. )FWIW)
I have actually been ‘trading’ in the gold bull since 2001 , when TIM ORD called the selling climax and got us into Gold at $285.00 He had us buying HL at .90 etc
MY personal PLAN is price projections now based on Fib projections taken from fib retracements along the way. At the top of previous C-waves , they always Overextend my projections , and most stocks Gap up BIG (sometimes 2 or 3 days in a row)…and if Silver gaps to 46, then 48 , then gaps again…I am out. Or HUGE up days ,days in a row .
Usually everyone is saying (on CNBC)at that point that silver could double by summers end and hit $80 to $100. sell 🙂
If we get to $50 and I dont see a huge gap up/reversal, or a couple $1+ days in a row…I may sell half and ride a stop up in case we go to higher projections.
As time goes on my fib price projections will change slightly, so its a flexible plan. Its NEVER caught the exact top , but I keep almost all of my gains.
just read POLYS post…thats how I see it in a nutshell too.
If you trade the metals and dont believe in manipulation, you simply arent paying attention.
Jayhawk, thought you might find this relevant…
https://marketforceanalysis.com/resources/Published-Articles/Gold-market-is-not-fixed-its-rigged.pdf
Poly,
reward beyond any dream? That’s a bit of an over statement. Also, who is to say that 39 isn’t the top? You’re talking about these higher targets as if it is a given. So far I understand that even Gary’s target is nothing more but an educated guess.
traderlady
you live in sarasota? i’m from annamaria island. i moved to delaware in 1999
Alex, Don’t know if this is on your watchlist, but it is putting a handle on a nice cup base. Both short term and long term. MMG
Price fixing in the 60’s when the currency was backed by gold doesn’t mean in today’s purely fiat monetary system that there is manipulation.
And price swings also don’t mean there is manipulation going on. It just means the market disagrees with your personal view of the future.
It’s why we use cycle analysis and sentiment as a guide to help us determine when those swings will occur.
Alex, Nice post on your C wave experiences.
Gary, you make excellent points. Futures contracts are hard to trade and they represent 1% of my capital, I wonder why I do it,, but it is the challenge I guess. My stop of 1410 could be the daily cycle low, but I would be quick to buy back if I see volume come in on the bounce off a low. I do not want to be out of the market (very long) until you give the C top call… I am glad I found your service!
wingman…
second that!
Basil,
If you don’t expect it to trade up to $50, then you will NEVER ride it to $50.
There are no certainties, I know that, but my comments are not to be construed as if I believe there are. I’m playing an expectation to have a chance to realize it!
If it doesn’t work out, we stop out for a very handsome gain.
“Dreams” in the trading sense. If you can make 150% gains in 4 months, then you shouldn’t be here 🙂
Terrill,
Good plan. But don’t forget to turn on the computer each evening to read Gary’s nightly update!
(I’m assuming you’re a subscriber. If not, sign up today! Best money you will ever spend 🙂
Brian
Thats a really sweet looking chart ( was on my list, took off some gold miners to focus on junior silvers more).Great volume up, Light sellers now- Thank you.
I”m actually watching MNEAF. I owned it before and bought the breakout in SEPT 3 and it never sold off (went sideways) so I held and it tripled. It and AG was my GPL of that run 🙂
Looks like the chart of EXK and AXU and SVM on a 6 month , so I am debating getting back in with a few 1000 shares.Waiting for a bigger volume increase upward – Room to run if it breaks out with good volume.
Simple daily price target on A-B-C type move would be $3.70 +,
but wkly target A-B-C up is roughly $4.50+
Thanks, ALEX.
You have any projections regarding gold or GLD?
(I have gone against Gary’s suggestion to go all in on silver–but don’t tell him or I will be in deep yogurt–I have some deep in the money GLD calls.)
Gary,
It’s an outstanding idea if they’re hedging a year of production. But if it’s going to continue further than that and hedging becomes a policy — not so outstanding.
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oooooooooooooooooooooooooooo
aw man, Beano was right all along! 🙂
Paul, Slumdog, Terrill, yes I understand there is a great deal of inflation in food, commodities, and of course our good friend, goo!
I would like a reply from, Mr Savage, regarding his inflation expectations for 2011….
He has been extremely vague about specifics regarding his claim of impending “massive” inflation…
Pima,
😉
I was just kidding, you don’t think I “can’t” watch this evolve according to Gary’s plan. I enjoy the learning process following Gary and am a subscriber since Feb. Wish I had found him in Jan.
I was invited to the SMT seminar and I was sold. Told the rest of my tipsters, advisors and services to take a hike and keep the fees I paid. I have joined on with Gary and his group and cannot believe what a wonderful service he provides for the price. I’m here til he isn’t anymore!
MMG, is sitting on large, high-grade silver resources, in Mexico. The problem, is that the Silver will be a by-product from their Zinc mine. The company has suffered from lowsy P.R., over the years.
Geez where have you been for the last two years? We are already seeing it.
Gas is up 100%, oil 200%. Silver 250%, cotton, grains, soybeans. The list goes on and on. All the money printing has nad is spiking commodity inflation.
That was in response to Bluices comment which it appears he deleted.
Jeff, Small world! Anna Maria is beautiful. I have been here 9 years in Palmer Ranch 🙂
SLW fell back into it’s rising channel going back to the intermediate bottom and currently bouncing off the 50% channel line on the 60 min. Bottom of channel at about 41 today.
PIMA
I had 3 price targets for GLD on the Aug run were
1) 134.50+
2) $142.32+ and
3)$144.90
It hit $139.54 ( so stronger than the 1st projection, closer to second).
My current projections are 1)$154.26+
2)$164.36+
3)$167.49
so I say Near $160+ by the end of this run (total parabolic blow up would add to this end move).
If it can clear this resistance and get going, the second target
traderlady,
wow
i was born in manatee hospital in 65. i liked it there, but i am doing better in delaware. wages are better here. 2,000 sunburns were enough for me =)
thanks, Alex.
Yeah, I think 1600 gold is possible during this runup. That would correspond to GLD being in the neighborhood of 160.
The USD was climbing steadily there for a while until it bumped into 77 and turned down. Was that big? The metals don’t seem to have noticed yet.
Traderlady and Jeff
Since I am visiting Sarasota in June/July…what am I looking at , 90 degree’s? I have only been to Florida in Nov and Jan and March , and it was quite nice. Living in New England, it was a good change in January leaving 10-20 degree’s behind!Great here in the spring,summer,fall tho!
Also, my email from my friend says we need to go to Bangkok, Daiquiri Deck and Siesta beach…so see you there if you are familiar with those places 😉
SLW second from the top of the list of BoW today (so far)
BoW?
Ralph Macchio sent this
http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-mfgppl-moneyflow.html?mod=topnav_2_3000
MrMiyagi said…
BoW?
BEWARE OF WEAKNESS.
Not good guys and gals…Not good.
alex
those places were out of my circle
my recommendation would be
1) mote marine aquarium. its about a 2 hour visit. i think it has 200 100gallon tanks one 5,000 gallon fish tank. if you like that stuff.
2) a drive north from there up longboatkey up to anna maria island. the north end of the island is a reastraunt called ” the sandbar” very nice with a outside deck. go at sundown and watch the sun set while you eat.
all the beaches are nice but where the sandbar is, has to be the nicest.
disclaimer i grew up there =)
have fun
BoW = Buying on Weakness
http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-mfgppl-moneyflow.html?mod=topnav_2_3002
Gary covers this in the Terminology Document. If you’re a subscriber, you definitely want to read that and become familiar with the terms in the document.
LOL.
Thanks pimacanyon, bookmarked.
gary
could you go on cnbc while they are doing the show and give them a rebuttle everytime they open there mouth.
they are saying the dollar is getting a bid under it. they say its up from here
tell them about the horror show about to unfold
Alex, I am from Maine and now not looking back! FL, Marina Jack Restraurant nice here (sunset cruises too) and also Casey Key for a drive. Definitely park your car across from the Fish House at Blackburn point. Walk the North private end of Casey up to Steven King’s driveway. 2 big openings along the Gulf. OR just drive it. Anymore ideas let me know.
I know the golf courses. Women like St Armands Circle,too
trader lady
yes st armands circle is a mile from mote marinelab. i forgot about that
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Geez TZ, don’t you want to help pay off our national debt instead of France or my FL taxes.LOL
Thanks Jeff and Traderlady
I will be checking those out, I love outdoor decks to dine and have a drink w/the sunset! much appreciated.
and Traderlady…Maine , so you know what deep snopw looks like !! My friends are moving back to Sarasota nxt year , maybe Bradington. So they’ve asked us to come look in june w/ them 1 day and relax for a week.
TZ
The reunion in Sarasota was just the warm up , gets us all to Florida to relax, then from there we Island hop the Caribbean and then Africa, Italy ,greece and Ireland. Also open to suggestions.
From Kevin Depew at Minyanville:
Silver records a TD Sequential 13 Sell signal today – next 12 days could see some selling. However, we are also on Bar 7 of an overlapping Sell Setup, which requires bar 8 or 9 (Wed/Thurs) to be higher than the high on Mon/Tues to perfect. Also, if we close above the TD Reference Close Up level at 35.91, that further muddies the waters. On higher time frames, we are a minimum 2 weeks away from a WEEKLY sell signal for silver.
Watch the Russell 2000 today – as we had a down close yesterday, and it closes above 828.62 today, followed by an up open tomorrow, this will qualify a TD propulsion Up momentum level, with a target at 862. This could show us where the general market is headed in the short term.
tz
20,000,000 in my pocket and i would be hitting the mexican joints i know of there. get my stomach full of my favorite tostadas. in florida they put cabbage insead of lettuce. mmmm
when i was little my family went to st tommas. the port sold lobster by the dock. they ranged from $2 to $6 . i think we ate lobster for 10 straight meals
Alex, Look up Marina Jack for sunset
drinks or the Tiki bar at Lido Beach Resort on Lido Key. Bradenton Beach and Anna Maria as per Jeff.
Terrill, your comment about Fidelity not having a gold fund. They do — it’s ticker is FSAGX. It could be that you can’t access it from your account. From one of my retirement accounts, I can (and it’s 80% of that fund through the C-wave), but from the other, I cannot. It is quite the underperformer though, compared to gdxj. It’s so big it can only have majors. Still… it’s better then everything else they offer, although two others to look at if you have them available for your annuity are FFGCX (global commodity fund, doing better than the gold fund lately) and perhaps energy funds like FSNGX (natural gas) which is cyclical and I’m close to punting that one for a while.
Oops, forgot Chart House on Longboat.
Thristy!
SLw just does not want to stay down…
Thanks Ben, I have a small play in the Fdelity fund in retirement accounts. I had put half of my retirement in there last year during the late spring and in the fall as I didn’t know what else there was out there and someone told me just try gold. I put half my account in it and saw it sky rocket… that is when I got hooked on Gold and since finding Gary, now silver. The Fidelity account I was trying to figure out what was next best to invest in was an annuity account and I can’t use the Mutual funds they have in IRAs and 401 accounts. Annuity funds don’t have any major gold/silver funds, so went with the vip energy and vip materials as they have two miners in there. Not much else to choose from other than a money market, or keep losing in the other funds. Worse thing I ever did is put funds in this Fidelity annuity 5 years ago. It doesn’t do squat. But that is no worry if all else does well. Nothing ventured, nothing gained.
Thanks for the reply Ben, other than staying in commodities, was about all I could come up with.
Ben, also check out
FICDX, Canadian, should do well with the economy.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-post-coming-rout
An article very relevant to Gary and others views of upcoming market events.
WOW
I never thought I would recommend this stock in this run!
AUY breaking out with large increase in volume.
yeah, what a screw job on AUY. I dumped my shares yesterday because it had been underperforming, I though it was a dog. ha!
oh well, that money is earmarked for some deep in the money GLD or SLV calls as soon as it’s looking like the daily cycle low is in, or when we hit vuvvy’s 1413 number, whichever comes first.
NovaGold (NG) is another stock i’m soo close to getting rid off…it just can’t seem to get going…the second I sell, it will go up 50%
PIMA
OH , that explains it…you took all the weight off that stock and now its free to fly, nice !
I”m thinking MAYBE tomorrow morning sells P.M.’s off a bit, then that may be it.
I was watching 10sma ‘s , because on the July/ AUG run , most of my stocks bounced off of them all the way up (only twice made it to the 20sma on most).
But if this run is strongest , they may not get down too far (until the dreaded D-Wave).
Where can I read more on Buy on Weakness/Sell on strength stuff?
@ MrMiyagi –
http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-mflppg-moneyflow.html?mod=topnav_2_3000
Thanks Dallas, what I want though is the information on how to interpret all the data and possibly gain from it.
Wow.. SLW wants to be let out of the barn so bad!
MyMayagi,
For more info re BoW/SoS, read the Terminology doc on Gary’s sub site.
Thanks again pimaCanyon
looks like somebody is pushing FAS today
AUY, finally pulling its weight.
Gary,
I can´t get over the fact that it is wrong and misleading to do cycle analysis on the Dollar index.
Since cycles are a way to quantify traders emotions and sentiment, the more traders that trade a given market, the more robust the cycle analysis will be. That´s why you don´t do cycles in silver, but only in gold, for example.
Well, no one trades the dollar index. The futures contract of the dollar trades on average 1.5 billion a day. That might seem like a lot, but not when you compare it to the major dollar pairs – EURUSD, GBPUSD and USDJPY. On forex, these 3 pairs trade on average about 3 trillion dollars a day. So basically the movement in these pairs is what dictates the movement in the dollar index, and not the other way around. It´s the emotions and sentiments of the traders who are trading the Euro/Dollar, Dollar/Yen and Pound/Dollar that dictates whatever happens to the dollar index.
Anyway, all I am trying to say is that it makes more sense to study the cycles in these major dollar pairs then in the dollar index. The sentiment of the traders trading the dollar index is irrelevant, they will get run over by the sentiments of people trading the pairs.
Does this make sense at all?
thanks
Brian
I saw your cup/handle earlier on MMG looking at 6 month daily and really liked that volume on the break out and lighter on the pullback
But now I just saw it on a 2 yr weekly! Wow, even better. I may pick some up here…
Disclaimer- Low priced juniors are very high risk and should not be bought by small accounts that cant afford losses or without a clear understanding of the possible headstone that comes with it.
This is Garys blog, gotta respect the safety he is trying to offer his students.
: )
AG (the stock)
Drops down a buck, fills a gap , and is now up!SWEEET!
Is there a way to view these comments with the newest at the top?
Lot of noise in here.
Subscribers comment section would be nice, but I’m not asking Gary for anything more than he has already given.
I’ve been buying after those 1 day down days but today I decided to wait and see if we get a better price tomorrow but it’s not looking that way. I guess I’m not going to get the chance. I might just do what SB does and wait for some sideways consolidation or a big drop and then add then. I know vuvvy put out a stop loss number around 1413 and I was hoping to add more at that level. For those that are waiting to add, any thoughts?
whitebear
No offense, but ‘HUH’?
I’m sure that the ‘noise’ in here would be the same noise on a subscriber log. Havent you noticed it’s subs chatting on a rather quiet day? What might change?
Ryan,
I added a half of a small position this morning and I will add the rest tomorrow, especially if the dollar is up.
Silver investing….China style!
http://www.financialsense.com/node/4418?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+fso+%28Financial+Sense%29&utm_term=FSO
alex
you are killing me with the junior tips
i’m determined to sell them and stick with the triptych but just can’t help myself – i now own goro exk pzg axu (all doing well) and now bought one that was a dog for me in 09 which i sold for its market value of today back in dec 2009
gary would slap me but i’m only using pin money
Fat Boy, then add RVMID to your watchlist. It is moving to the AMEX soon.
Gold back test of weekly break out complete. MACD histogram ready to turn positive. We launch from here.
Chart
Alex, I really liked your LODE on a weekly chart too. Put in a stinker bid @ 3.2. It got hit while I was out. That thing looks to me to be commencing a 3rd wave on the weekly. We will know soon enough.
BLH, You know what the new symbol will be and the date it starts trading?
Yes, Alex, thanks for all the juniors tips! Excellent!
I gotta resist for now, as this turkey’s all fattened up and sitting pretty on her bull, but appreciate it all the same.
Nice Florida tips too, guys. If anyone heads to Cali, we got good burritos here too. (No cabbage though . . . )
Thanks Haggerty
Brian, there is no further update on symbol or timing. They are going through their required audits.
FATBOY ( boy I hate to call you that)
Rugged guy-
I know , I had 5 stocks that I was finally settled on riding all through this last Phase, But I see good set ups (and always have rebalanced before I met Gary).
I too own GPL-AXU – EXK-AG and so on. As my GPL and EXK were going up 12% a day and my SLW was up 3%…I just keep looking for set ups. Its killing me too!
p.s. AXU looks Just like EXK before the break-out ,thats a keep I.M.H.O.
Waiting for this final leg up to begin reminds me of how it felt waiting for the doors to open for a Led Zeppelin concert.
Ryan,
I would agree, HUI has successfully put in the right shoulder.
I doubt gold will drop lower.
Jayhawk,
about silver trading in/outside NY hours video. I posted it here a few days ago, but cant find it anymore.
I re-checked it myself though and played with data over the weekend.
Downloaded SLW stock’s price history from finance.yahoo.com in CSV format and put into excel. You then have open,close,high,low,volume for every day. Anyone can do this.
Now, if you take just each day’s NY open to close profit/loss you’re flat on earnings… You’re flat on slw, aapl,… over say half a year.
Actually worse. Seems that push on price corrections over long time is harder on ny trading which flattens the line or even turns negative. But it’s not about ‘silver manipulation’ – just insert apple chart – actually it’s very interesting to see it since 2000 to today. NY trading is +- flat to negative earnings since 2006, but funny things before that.
Here’s my graph from excel. SLW started trade with $50k on 2. aug 2010 through 3. march 2011
http://dl.dropbox.com/u/16631443/slw.png
Blue line is open to close. Green is old-turkey just holding. And red is buying at close and selling at open.
I’d really love for someone to re-check this cause i find it a bit ‘too’ amazing.
I mean really. If you bought SLW since last august before this great bull run – bought it on open, and sold it on close each day – you’re under water with your investement today (!)
I have a question for the expert subs… when we hit the sell button, do we do it at market price or limit price. Just thinking ahead about how to stage my orders as I trade in 3 different accounts. Takes time to go back and forth during the day. ]
thanks in advance, appreciate any tips as I am sure, my fingers will be fat fingering lots of keys when this plays out…
BRIAN
I returned the favor, my MMG bid just got tagged 🙂
Here I go, back towards holding 10 stocks …
BLH…WOW, good day on that one!
Jayhawks , thx for the chart update!
Vonda…just wanted to say ‘hello’-read your posts recently , nice group we have in here!
Terill
At the market price. SIL and AGQ are very liquid
James
Thanks James R.
Alex – when you mentioned Bangkok it brought back so many memories of my south east asia adventures, thanks for that! I know you were referring to a restaurant name though heh.
SIL is very thinly traded, in my experience.
SIL trades like a penny stock named Joe’s Silver Mining INC.
Terrill, if your broker supports it, you could use trade triggers for some (or all) of your shares, thus allowing them to be sold quickly, or as a way to sell some shares if you are going to be away for a while but know in advance where you want to slim down. The value of GLD (or any ticker or index) can be used as your trigger, and the resulting action could be whatever you want, e.g. sell 1/2 your AGQ shares.
Ryan
Glad I could help..haha -this is a funny blog today. Gary s going to come back and think a kindergarten class took over 🙂
and BILL said…
“Blogger Bill said…
Is there a way to view these comments with the newest at the top?”
THATS GENIUS! I feel your pain.
when I use my home P.C. (windows 7 & internet explorer)..it refreshes the page right at the comment where I left off,
but on my laptop (FireFox and Windows XP) it refreshes and drops you off on the top of the comments.
BILL…before you refresh , look at the ‘time stamp’ on the last comment you read , then you can just fly back down to that ‘time’ of your last comment read. Works for me 🙂
SIL – average volume 771,000.
Yes this may be askew but c’mon guys how many shares are you holding?
o.k maybe not “very” liquid for SIL
but GDX, GDXJ and most of the silver miners are above 1 million shares traded daily
Interesting chart on LODE.
But really, how much gold can you pull out of the ground with 14 employees?
james r, I would imagine that at the top 2 things will happen. We will exit on an up day, and by that point that volume may double and quite possibly triple.
“Gary s going to come back and think a kindergarten class took over :)”
And you ask me about all the noise?
whitebear, most exploration companies look like that as they contract out all the work. Such as Aeroquest does the site maps, Energold and others do the drilling of test holes. Polymet does the assays, you get the idea. Check on some others such as THM etc. You will see the same thing. Nevada exploration companies have been getting bid up since FRG was bought out by NEM.
Brian
I would agree.
Whitebear
good point on the 14 employees, that chart does seem to reflect something , like maybe a buy out candidate. Or low expenses w/ only 14 employees 🙂
As for the noise , yeah- but the silence can kill you on a day like this !
Sometimes a good walk or rock climb is just like ‘Earplugs for your eyes’! I do it occasionally
SLW has 32 employees, no?
VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA–(Marketwire – March 8, 2011) – GREAT PANTHER SILVER LIMITED (GPL:$4.8700,$-0.0900,-1.81%) (the “Company”) is pleased to announce that it has paid off $4,050,000 in two outstanding $2,025,000 Principal Amount 8% Unsecured Convertible Loan Notes due July 14, 2011 (the “Notes”) by the issuance of 1,800,000 fully paid common shares of the Company at the originally agreed upon conversion price of $2.25 per common share. Accrued interest will be paid in cash. The Notes were issued on July 13, 2007 to City Natural Resources High Yield Trust PLC and New City High Yield Fund Limited, British Isles-based Funds.
“These note conversions eliminate the Company’s long-term debt and the corresponding interest, and in doing so, frees up our cash to ensure the successful continuation of our 3-year exploration and development program at the Guanajuato and Topia Mines,” said GPR’s President & CEO, Robert Archer.
ON BEHALF OF THE BOARD
Kaare G. Foy, Executive Chairman
sasa-
your link didn’t work for me. did you try it with SLV?
I’ll try and dig up that vid
Here’s the video:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sR28o5f9aKE
Jayhawk,
try this link:
SLW trading
Havent tried with SLV… i’ll post a pic and/or excel when i do.
Terrill-
Depends on your trading strategy/time horizon.
If you’re going to follow Gary’s plan, you’ll be holding for long periods so hitting a great entry/exit point is nice, but not essential…so market orders are fine.
If you’re going to day trade, good entries/exits can be the difference between making and losing money, so limit orders are the way to go.
@MyLifeIsLame
Nicely done. You are much better than me.
You should try doing stand up comedy.
HHMM as of 5 p.m.
JDSU down 15% after hours and
FNSR down $14 or 35%
Cien down $2 or 7%
CSCO crashed back in Feb
Rattle in Techs?? They’re getting smacked on the beanie
Sasa, Jayhawk-
There was a study done a few months back by some contributor on Seeking Alpha or ZeroHedge – I can’t remember which – which found that all the action was during overnight hours. That buying the close and selling the open was the way to go during the past 3-4 years. Basically, it mirrored your findings, Sasa, but for the market more broadly.
Alex/Pima,
Any target prices on SLW for the top of this C?
SLW is running higher than Silver, so trying to figure out how to find a target for SLW.
Terrill,
You can sell either using limit orders to get a specific price or at the market. Yet another way mentioned here, is a market order when another instrument (say gold or silver futures or GLD or SLV) hits a certain price.
If you’re worried about having to do too many sell orders all at once, you could enter some the day before as limit orders and then do the rest real time during the trading day.
If you’re just in SIL, SLV, AGQ, and SLW, probably makes little difference whether you do limit orders or market.
Where you might get screwed with market orders is selling options, especially if the spread is wide.
Nitro,
funny article on buying silver chinese style.
“Hello” Alex!
And all,
Re: the conversation around “the noise,” I apologize to any or all for my part in it. I liken my investment experience to learning a new language: I am at the part where I can understand a lot more than I can speak.
I joined Gary’s sub service last summer and didn’t even know about the blog for months. When I started reading, a few months ago, I couldn’t believe the amount of expertise and generosity within. I started to feel bad, being a silent lurker.
So I try and pipe up once in a while. And whilst I won’t be offering hedging strategies any time soon and I have no desire to dip my toes in futures, I can follow a good options conversation and I’m always up for rating a burrito (or a $60 sushi roll.)
More than anything, I appreciate the community–anonymous though it may be–on good days, bad, slow and quick. I’d like a face-to-face to reduce some of the anonymity, but there’s no way I’m climbing the Matterhorn! Next time Hawaii comes around, I’ll be there.
p.s. My original investment experience goes back as far as when you had to look up a company/industry in hardcopy ValueLine. In that sense, I’m not a newbie, but I find the older I get, the less I need to know personally. That’s another reason I appreciate all of the generosity from y’all on this site.
Terrill,
I get two methods from reading Gary’s updates:
1) Sell everything when silver hits $50
2) Use gold as a proxy and sell everything when gold looks like it’s topping.
I don’t believe he has a price target for SLW.
I would just wait for his signal OR consider selling (maybe part of your positions) when silver hits $50
thanks James and Ben, what about SLW? same? I have one account that I can stage my sell orders and then send them immediately, however Fidelity it’s a bit slower process. That is why I trimmed down to metals and deep in the money calls. Otherwise, I would just be going down the list sending them one by one. That thought was enough for me to get out of speculating the miners that I had and just chuck em for the metals.
It’s a blog comment section, there should be noise as well as solid ideas. Old Turkey means we need something to distract us from hitting sell too soon. I have no problem with the various comments.
Also, silver hits 50 way before the timing band for the intermediate cycle top, why would we sell? I think we just wait and see what the action dictates at the time. Those miners were gobbled up today as demonstrated by the long tails they left behind. Good action. Sell offs are not sticking.
Pima,
I suspect it’s going to be
3) sell when the dollar panic seems to be climaxing.
Everything cues off the action in the dollar.
David,
You could be right, but if that’s the cue that Gary uses, he’ll cover it in the nightly update.
He has said that he will sell when silver hits $50, so unless that changes AND if that happens before the dollar panic climaxes…? Well, we’ll just have to see what Gary says about it then. 🙂
Terrill,
SLW is very liquid, shouldn’t see a difference between a market order or a limit order.
Your deep in the money calls, however–those you might want to sell with limit orders. Or, if you have a bunch, try selling ONE with a market and see what kind of fill you get, kind of a test. I may do that myself because it would be nice to have those setup to sell at market when gold or silver hit a certain price.
He’ll probably exit on whichever event comes first.
As we all know, he’s usually early 😉
Pima, yes, I do options, so I monitor those closely. My concern is being near a computer during this time of sell off. I will be out of the country most of april and may, and two of the weeks, I know it will be difficult for internet access. So trying to plan ahead my exit strategy. May put some limits in at various prices, high to low and average out the wins. So all depends on if I can be on the computer when Gary says….go for it. Talk about being nervous about that (not being able to monitor closely).
t.j.rand:
Thanks, i’ll look it up.
So far it seems to me judging by the way slw and some other stocks act regarding open/close, it could be a good option for uncertain times, like right now where you expect a correction but then again dont wanna stay out of position and miss out – to just trade close to open – skip the NY, and one shouldnt miss much of potential upside and be able to minimize a drawdown.
On an uptrend it’s still best to hold position 24h of course.
Doesnt seem that productive on agq and slv though, but very true on alot of other stocks i tried. I’ll post the SLV excel file in a minute…
Sasha
I believe we all will be doing a lot of chattering the next few weeks, nervous energy. But a great group, I have found here… I like it!!!
Pima, Is it SIL or SLV we are watching for the target price?
Jayhawk,
SLV since 2006
Since last august through new year pullback:
SLV since august ’10
Boring at first look but …
SLV since Jan 26th
Excel file
Off to bed, past midnight here. I have to say it’s rather conventient how US trading hours match in european timezone 🙂
Terrill,
I believe Gary is looking at continous $SILVER for our $50.00 target.
Someone can correct me.
James
thanks James, that makes sense.
who was looking for a book on futures
try this link
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/tafm/
Sasa-
Thanks. That’s amazing!
David Kafrick,
How do you think the dollar index will hold up?
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$XAD&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p19831013916&a=227406522
I think very few will be able to hold on when silver hits $50. You know what Gary says about round numbers and how the big boys like to sell into it.
n1tro
gary isnt holding past 50 , he said that would put silver 100% past the 200 day moveing average. hot potato lol
yes, he has mentioned that. it will be interesting if one can hold to the exact $50 mark or wuss out and pull the trigger earlier like at $48.
I’d like to know when buddy with the $15 million account is going to pull on his AGQ holdings so I can get out before him. LOL!
if gary says jump i want to be first
i am afraid of the storys when there are 0 buyers and men are crying to sell for days
You’ll know it’s the top when you can’t bring yourself to sell.
We will start to scale out as silver approaches $50 or gold $1650ish.
Why not set stops when silver hits 50 ad just get stopped out
right now i just want a buying spot
I would think 50.00 is a target.
Depending on the dollar, sentiment and the silver charts, 50.00 maybe easily eclipsed.
We will see as get further along.
James
There’s going to be a lot of resistance at that $50 mark.
And of course when the ENTIRE world is focused on a single price there is a chance it could just blow right past it. This may bring a whole new slew of buyers and then it could dump but from a higher number than $50. I for one will not be around and I’m not wagering on this one but how many times has a target been viewed for 30 years! I can’t remember how long it took Dow 1000 to regain but I think it was about 1/2 that time. This is a very unusual circumstance imo and I think Gary’s call to scale out is the only reasonable and professional way to handle it.
Nice little pennant on $GOLD today
Could quite see a big day tomorrow.
My system’s stop is at 1419.00 currently,good through close of gold futures tomorrow.
Vuvvy,
Wow that trigger is moving up quick. Wasn’t it just 1413 today? So it will only take a shallow drop to hit your trigger. Gold is 1426 right now
1419? hmmm that would be a wonderfull stop for this price now. how much do you trust your machine?
vuvvy
that wouldnt happen to be a trailing sar would it?
Last main bottom in USD was 100 days ago.
Has anyone considered that we can now be on a IT bottom. A bottom that has been very little ABOVE the last.
This, for cycle and dow theary, qualify the last bottom 100 days ago) as a YEARLY cycle bottom.
So we should expect new highs in ISD…
Anything is possible but the odds are heavily against it. Printing trillions of dollars isn’t conducive to having a strong currency.
I don’t believe for one second that Bernanke is going to be able to get away with his reckless monetary policy.
The last attempt at this gave us a real estate and credit bubble. This one is going to give us a currency crisis.
Icahn returning all outside hedge-fund money
Activist doesn’t want to lose other people’s money in another crisis
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/icahn-returning-all-outside-hedge-fund-money-2011-03-08
One of the flaws with humans is that it’s very tough for us to look past the present and visualize the consequences of our actions. It’s why most people could see at the time what the end result of soaring real estate prices was going to be. All they could see was the good times of the moment.
It’s why people like Beanie and most of the people on CNBC think the Fed has cured our problems. Because at the moment it appears that our problems ARE fixed.
They can’t visualize the ultimate consequences of printing trillions of dollars. All they can see is that right now times are good. That must mean they will stay good from now on.
Unfortunately all we have done is temporarily put off the day of reckoning and in the process made the problem much much bigger.
Printing money isn’t a magic cure. It isn’t going to lead to a strong dollar and it certainly isn’t a permanent fix for the economy.
What it will ultimately do is guarantee that the depression is much bigger and deeper than it had to be originally.
While Carl Icahn returned $1.76B to investors, the little guys are back. Very interesting.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/2-years-after-market-low-the-apf-2492075628.html?x=0
GGuy,
The white candle today on the dollar was on the short side.
I think we’ll see a reversal tomorrow.
James
Gary,
Just a quick FYI in case you weren’t aware, you can make arrows in StockCharts by holding “Shift” when clicking your trendlines.
Gary: The SPX bottomed in 2009 and now the yearly cycle is extremely right translated. So given that the cycle is right translated, why would it break the previous 4 year low? What am I missing?
Actually it isn’t extremely right translated yet. If it topped two weeks ago then it would be slightly left translated (not quite two years).
Just because a cycle is right translated doesn’t guarantee it will hold above the prior cycle low, it just increases the odds that it will.
The last 4 year cycle was extremely right translated and it still moved below the 02 low.
Jeff,other than saying it is momentum based and uses some of the components of sar I can’t tell you how it works:)Traditional sar does not backtest well in gold.
Thanks Gary!
ddn3f,it’s moving up quick currently and hopefully bottoming action once hit, although price could go considerably under 1419.Meshes with Gary’s thoughts too so it gives me more confidence.
” ALEX said…
HHMM as of 5 p.m.
JDSU down 15% after hours and
FNSR down $14 or 35%”
I look at fnsr 5 yrs chart, they fly too high..hope slw not doing the same?
Many people are waiting to add on this next dip whenever it materializes. I am expecting a fast drop. The drops always seem to be quick and a bit scary. I have limit buys when gold hits $1410 to top off.
Jeff,
vuvvy’s stop is NOT a trailing stop to stop him out of his positions.
It’s a signal from a system that normally would have him go short if that stop is hit. However, with this market he has noticed that when the C wave is cooking and we’re not moving into an IT low, his system sell stop ends up marking the daily cycle low.
So if we hit 1419 tonight or tomorrow and –IF– his system continues working like it did during the fall rally, then the daily cycle low would be in.
However, Gary is looking for something much lower, so you have to take vuvvy’s signal with a grain of salt. The market loves to take what has worked in the past and do something completely different this time.
Terrill,
Gary uses spot prices, so $50 silver would be the spot price.
I guess my daughter just changed my name to Veronica from VUVVY.It’s her G-mail account:)
Potential tsunami for Japan after 7.1 earthquake. Should be interesting for currencies…
No significant Tsunami is expected.
so….VUVVY/Veronica
would you happen to be Veronicas mother or father??
That way we can say ,
” He said his system…”
or
” Her system said…”
…with accuracy.
A few market observations:
On monday near the open I said it looked like topping action and buying capitulation. So far that has been correct and the peak for now was set.
Today (and last 24-48 hrs) I have commented and noticed on the LARGE number of new posters. Popping out of nowhere – many of them with “should I buy all my AGQ now?”, “I want to get leveraged”, etc. (Many of them did and are now fully bought in).
I calling that another sign.
I believe silver will see a drop of at least 10% from the peak. $3 or so in the next few days.
Yes, it will likely be quick, but it will hurt and the late buyers and self labeled ‘newcomers’ (no offense) are prob gonna take it in the neck.
A 10% drop in silver might be a 25% drop in AGQ when you factor in the decay issue. I’m pretty sure the happy faces and “i’m rich” tone will subside against that.
Obviously I could be wrong and we may not drop, or drop much. But that’s just my vibe right now.
I’m long and just holding. I don’t think silver will go below $32 or so. My target is close to $33.
We’ll see what happens.
I say we bust a move to the upside tomorrow.
I think if we were going to sell off we would have already.
I think the miners HUI and GDX with the inverse head and shoulder pattern support the move higher tomorrow.
James
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TZ,
I think if what you say happens, a lot of us would be pretty scared too. I know I would be rattled holding through a 25% drawdown even though I would probably still hold strong with shaking knees.
TZ,
>Today (and last 24-48 hrs) I have commented and
>noticed on the LARGE number of new posters.
I like the way you think and agree with almost all of your reasoning. And before i posted i was thinking exactly that, why on earth do i decide to post just now that so many new posters pop up as well…
But hard to answer myself. I’m reading Gary’s free site for a year now and am a subscriber since autumn. And about since then i also read the blog regularly.
I held physical gold since Dec 2008 and converted it all to IB account this fall.
Whatever the reason i can say this though:
-When i followed Gary’s free postings every few days and held physical, it was VERY easy and most importantly unemotional to catch practically exact bottoms every few months to add to my physical. And to catch exact top (in EUR) to sell physical in the end. Big picture was crystal clear.
-Now following a mountain of daily and intraday trading information tossed around it’s getting harder and harder not to lose the big picture. And not to overreact, at least emotionally if not actually doing something stupid in IB trying to outsmart down days.
Common denominator i guess is simply greed. On every plus day you just set yourself the bar higher for what you ‘need’ to achieve. And when your goal is at the far reach of what you think is possible, every down day scares you to hell that you will fail and perhaps take just that another bit of risk to achieve it – afterall, this is a sure bet ($50 silver, etc…)
… and it’s not.
Ironically i’m software engineer and wrote accounting/control system for casino slot machines, lol. So know all about delusions of many people that come to casino with a full proof system, how it appears to them and how it ends for them.
Sasha
Ryan,
Maybe my estimation is excessive. I simply thought approx a $3 move in silver didn’t seem too crazy. There were at least 2 in fall and we are now higher in price. It seems well within normal trading.
But yes, it would hurt and surprise recent buyers. Gary has warned as much and of course many of us are in from much lower levels that wouldnt’ really be bothered by a dip to $33 or so.
That thursday dip two weeks ago itself was almost $3 top to bottom.
Before people start trading on my comments here, remember I spoke a lot like this in fall as well and things kept going up. (That was worst year for me in a long time).
Nothing says we actually have to drop here. It’s just speculation on my part.
TZ,
regarding big drop in following days.
If i look at silver chart over 1 year, a $3 drop in silver now would make the angle of rising price about the same as it was in autumn.
If i imagine the line over the tops of autmn rally and extend it over the Jan correction to today, we’d approx hit the upper ‘channel’. Lower channel line would be about $3 lower to make the whole august-today move at about same angle on average.
With lots of talk about phys. silver shortage, etc. and Gary’s thinking that this is final ‘explosive’ leg up of C wave driven by sharp dollar fall, etc, it would justify a bit steeper angle than last autumn’s though. But it’s hard for me to imagine going up like it did now for a good month without a bit of a ‘scary’ pause.
Sasha
TZ, Seriously. We watched you get spanked the last time, and now you want to be an expert commentator?
I like your thoughts, and as this cycle rolls up big swing are inevitable, but seriously.. Why scare folks? Just because you didn’t listen to Gary?
TZ and Brian,
I’m a newbie with Gary, however trusting in Gary’s projections.
I am in for the roller coaster ride and figure it’s just the strong pullback to shoot up higher. The farther back it pulls the higher it will shoot up is the way I look at it.
I was in Gold last spring and into the fall rise out of dumbluck. and have followed it ever since I witnessed the ride last year. I am just glad I found Gary’s site so I can learn more and really understand this ride. Interesting to listen to you all discuss. I went ahead and bought fully in. Because I get more frustrated missing a buy, I would rather be in, than miss the ride up. So I am prepared for a drop prior, not that I won’t be shaking also watching it drop, but that’s what makes this an extreme experience.
It took me a month to figure out all of Gary’s lingo and read the past posts to follow you all, so if you are seeing newbies, we had a seminar in early Feb when I joined up. Best decision, I have made on this gold ride.
Hi Gary, I do wonder with so many precious comments from distinguised followers, can you make this blog searchable?
This comment has been removed by the author.
This comment has been removed by the author.
Brian,
>We watched you get spanked the last time, and now you want to be an expert commentator?
Your response is stretched in a few ways.
In fall I was simply out and missed much of the gains. I was honest about it. I hardly suffered a major defeat.
As for “expert commentator”, Gary himself warned of a 20% drop on AGQ only a few hours ago on the same board. So my comment of a 10% drop in silver and 25% in AGQ (due to decay) is out of line? I assume you don’t want gary to keep ‘scaring’ people???
And as for ‘scaring’, I hardly think it is bad to consider what could go wrong with a position – especially when recent history has shown that that *exact* action is possible (Nov 2010).
Are you saying you find it preferable to tell people that all is well, buy as much as they want, leverage up, and have no possible worries here? That would be a bit optimistic after 6 weeks of of gains and anticipation of a cycle low, no?
Does it mean sell everything and hide under the couch? Of course not. I’m not selling a bit. But it might (as gary warns too) mean any buys here could be in for some bumps. Nothing wrong with thinking about them and steadying things should they happen.
Regarding a 10% drop because people here are “giddy” and there are too many new posters:
Just because there are more posters here suddenly does not mean we are likely to drop 10%. If this is the final leg, emotions will run crazy hot. We can’t get there without going though giddy first and NOY dropping. If we cool things off every time it gets a bit giddy this rally will never end. I say we have a mild drop at worst and continue up so we can get from giddy to manic..and then start the D wave.
I am Vuvvy’s father:)
I know nothing but it feels like a breakout move coming. US debt ceiling will be raised real soon and the media will be all over this. Libya concerns will not be over any time soon and Gaddafi is not voluntarily leaving so oil is going higher. Iran protest have been hushed up but it will peek its head out. I just don’t see any downside to buying PM right now. I bought AGQ @ 175, 181, and 191 and I would probably buy some today and tomorrow if I didn’t have a postion yet. FWIW I know not one person who is as heavily invested or takes any time to learn about PM.
Paul
Your right. All I get is deer caught in the headlights
We had a perfect bounce off of gold’s intraday uptrend line.Is it up and away or a sucker’s play to get everyone to commit before a smashdown?
I’m waiting for garys call
if it is a sucker play, they playing both PM and $ dx.
GOODMORNING!
I have a friend who I help ‘stay invested’ at times , and I drew this chart for him because he thinks a HUGE pullback in SILVER is due. This is simply Silver History, but its quite positive.
http://www.screencast.com/t/MMeDaOkuYKV
Alex, nice chart.I saw Institutional Advisors had a similar chart posted over the weekend with a target of 43.
Guys, it’s probably old news but Trader Dan posted a blog on Comex Open Interest and the price of silver.
In a nutshell the Comex Silver OI (people taking up long positions0 has been declining while the price of silver has been increasing
His reasoning was that it is short covering that is moving the price up as opposed people opening new long positions
I’m not an expert as all but i was wondering if this is something we should be concerned about?
Thanks
Hi all and Gary, I am pretty new here (just signed up today). Where can I find the porfolio that Gary has with Silver? Or suggested portfolio?
Sibek,
Happy to help… Mar. 5 weekend report.
VERONICA’s DAD
Yes, my initial target was lower just due to that trendline , but they do tend to overshoot with ‘exuberance’ and also you have that magic round number 50.
Even on my chart posted , you can see that 2006 had a target of roughly $12, yet it blasted to $16 ( sure didnt stay there long though)
ollie
Trader Dan knows his stuff, and he tends to be bullish when possible- but I’m going to let Gary address that if he’s out there.
I would imagine it could mean a small pullback could occur? or as shorts cover, momentum traders could jump on the price rise and drive it up? It could co-incide with a dollar bounce?
Gary?
Sibek
you need to be a sub pal.
It’s on the nightly report every night.
Sibek, it’s on the weekend reports.
Ollie,
The big picture is that we are in a secular bull market and very heavy odds that we are in a final C-wave advance driven by a collapsing dollar that is moving down into a major three year cycle low.
I can tell you right now that there are going to be a never ending stream of top callers all the way up. Every time we get a reversal candle there are going to be multiple analysts that will come out and call the end of the rally, or the end of the bull, etc. etc.
The thing is that this isn’t going to top until the dollar bottoms so trying to trade this based on chart patterns is simply not going to work.
It’s why none of these people have been right and why all of them are missing what will most likely be one of the most powerful rallies in history.
My suggestion is that you quit paying attention. We have our stops in place. We can’t get caught in any serious decline. And I think the HUI is about to put in another major swing, so we may be moving our stops up even tighter. So our profits will be protected.
This comment has been removed by the author.
It’s weird how everything is falling in place for the 3 yr low for USD. This cycle stuff is crazy good.
On the geopolitical point of view, TZ could be right…If NATO decided a no-fly zone on Libya by the weekend, stocks will be massively up and precious metals will tank…. Temporarely as basically Gary is right, but we could get hammered on the short time….
To any fellow Chart observers
This is SO compelling to a trader like myself. A while back GPL was breaking out and I was convincing my brother in law that it was REAL GOOD looking. Solid reasons to buy and hold.
Now take this chart I drew BACK THEN (GPL-we all saw what it did-click it to enlarge)and put it side by side with AXU TODAY. It also works for the chart of EXK before its large break out.
Its amazingly similar…even the 2 high volume break out days.
http://www.screencast.com/t/Vcg7sYEdM2
P.S. Buying individual junior miners has possible individual risks, such as mine cave-ins, flooded mines, earthquakes, etc
There are safer ways to invest ( however , I do own Both 🙂
I sold a fair bit of gold a few years back but after reading this blog I might try and catch the rest of this C-wave.
Gordon, you sold at 250 and you’re now buying at 1435? :):)
I was being prudent and I didn’t have Gary’s excellent advice at the time.
I would like to believe Gordon sold at $1000.00 in 2008 and it then dropped to $700 area, now he’s ready to make more gains 🙂
Anyone else having problems this morning with the Kitco toolbar that updates gold and silver prices? All of a sudden I’m getting an error message and it won’t work.
Look at a 2 year chart of SFMI if you want to see what the downside of buying individual juniors is.
Folks a chart can’t see into the future and tell you when the company is going to massively dilute the float. It can’t tell you when a drill result is going to disappoint. It can’t tell you when a mine is going to flood.
These are the unknowns that happen all the time in this business. So if you are going to buy these things please keep your purchases under 5% of your total portfolio.
I just read recently that Gordon sold 60% of England’s gold and created the “Brown bottom” at 250.00:)
Wow, talk about a “direct line”. Any suggestions of what to ask?
“Please wait for a site operator to respond.
You are now chatting with ‘Jesus’
Welcome to optionsXpress, how may I help you?”
Lol.. I’m still laughing.
alex i believe gordon brown did sell at 250 its a british joke and as usual only funny if your british
I must remember to use a pseudonym next time.
Gary
juniors in mine 3.3% and plan for no more- so keeping in line here.
I am much happier since you dropped the basket of juniors thing it was
way too many balls in the air for me
I still can’t seam to bring myself to refer many people to the site – in case people think i’m crazy or they get seriously burnt jumping into final bit of this c wave without having at least some experience.
Gordon Brown said…
“I must remember to use a pseudonym next time. “
That was a really good one Gordy! LOL!
Gary, have you commented regarding the effect ending QE2 will have on the precious metals?
What the hell…S&P drop, and PMs dropping too! Oil flat.
spot silver is up and slw is down?
steve, the beginning of D-wave i suppose
I would never sell anything here, but to flame TZ for suggesting a possible 10% pullback is naive. Pullbacks of 5%-10% over a few days are all too common, after a run like this.
A good 5-7% plunge to wipe out of new over leveraged, over confident hands would do wonders for our overall plan.
TZ:
Damn, you’re good!
OH, THAT GORDON BROWN…I know the man, didnt know he was 1 and the same 🙂
Gold is still up over $6. It just fell $2 to $1434, so probabaly not a run away.
The U.S. Dollar just about hit a swing high this morning due to weakness vs. the Euro. Euro nations are poised to raise rate, so Euro should start buy the rumor.
SPX probably going to turn around now too. Oil is just up a tad. Looks like a morning dump job to me. That’s the opposite of the normal daily-morning ramp-job that grinds stocks higher each morning.
Yes, I know THAT gordon Brown…I was thinking this was a different Guy – haha
I was trying to stick up for him 🙂
I’m guessing Blogger is having problems this morning. Please just hit the publish button one time so we don’t get all these repeats.
James,
Kitco’s program that puts gold and silver prices on my task bar–that program is working fine on my computer.
Anybody noticing the disconnect between the paper and physical market in silver today? Silver up nicely over 1% while SLV and AGQ are down.
Steve, steve, steve …
QE2 doesn’t end until June, so our PM C-Wave finally should be over by beginning of May or end of April at soonest.
QE3, QE4, QE5, …. QEn
Gary,
I have had blogger publish my comments twice, and it’s not because I hit the publish button more than once.
When it happens, blogger takes a LONG time to complete the process. If I just sit there and wait, it can take several minutes. When it’s done, there are two copies of the comment I posted instead of one.
I’ve also tried just closing the firefox window while it’s taking so long (thinking it’s hung), and it still publishes the same comment twice.
Wingman: Yes AGQ has been bothering me a bit lately. As is SLW. I figure with the AGQ it’s probably Theta decay since it’s a leveraged product. But I wouldn’t expect this much melt.
Wingman,
They are being calculated off different previous closing times. The difference in price between the two is what you are seeing.
pimaCanyon, thanks for the clue. It looks like a problem with the latest Firefox update. I tried installing Kcast toolbar through IE, and it’s working fine.
Alex, It is amazing, the similarities you pointed out between those two stocks.
MGH has had it’s 90 day avg vol in the 1st half hour today.
I’m interested in the similar patterns on this intermediate move vs. last summers on gold.
As you can see, we put in identical candles at the bottom, followed by 5 solid weeks up. (9.5% move up then, 10.5% this time total) Then there was a pause in the action on week 6 where gold put in a doji candlestick while it rested. Then it launched into 5 weeks of a more powerful move. Then we had the whippy action at the end of the cycle.
Gold chart
Will history repeat? Well, if our dollar analysis is correct, it should be even more powerful
Gary-
Dang! 10 burritos in danger…looks like Bill Gross might be on your side regarding no QE3 this year. 🙂
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/exclusive-bill-gross-dumps-all-treasuries-brings-total-government-related-holdings-zero-flee
Nice chart Jay!! Thx
Nice chart Jay and I agree, especially on a weekly basis it’s all golden.
We did put in a one day 4% Silver drop on Sep 28th, 2010. Not to mention the big 9% drop from 15th-22nd Oct 2010.
These 4-9% drops do happen on a very short time frame and are often well masked in the weekly charts. If a newbie is priced in at low $30’s Silver and highly leveraged, such a drop could cause them to drop their load and chase on the way back, not a place you want to be, in the middle of a huge bull market.
BRIAN and JAYHAWK
You guys scare me…
I was JUST looking at MGN, because of its volume surge on my check list, and last night I was comparing this wave with the last looking for similarities too!
jay,
isn’t that hard to say before the week ‘s over?
I don’t see anything to be done today so far.
I had trouble commenting too, but I used Firefox and Internet Explorer and had trouble with both.
It was as PIMA reported.
Gary
I understand where you are coming from warning about the likes of SFMI-
but I still have people saying I’m crazy for investing in Gold /Silver period! they say
” Cycles,charts,etc had everyone jumping in and out at the 2008 crash. SLW went from $20 to $2!! Noone saw it coming…everyone lost money. NEVER EVER more than 5% of your portfolio should be in P.M.’s”
Some know not to buy and hold forever..
SFMI is a ‘developer/explorer PINK SHEET -not a Producer with good fundamentals( thats not apples to apples exactly)- they dont produce or make $$. I know things can go wrong, but investing is a risk..period, so we define our risk/reward parameters.
Due diligence , Cycles, and Charts and tech analysis have rewarded me well, so I hope you dont mind me posting what looks like a good chart to me, for guys like BRIAN and JAY and others who may ‘Proceed with caution” 🙂
And to prove a point–would you try writing every nightly report without a chart notated with Tech Analysis for a month please?? 🙂
And absolutely no dis-respect intended-
Keeping your subs safer is understandable-
I just laugh everytime you write ‘throw your charts away , tech analysis is not going to give you any edge” ( then you use 5 of them in a report)
🙂
Yes Alex, just follow the 50/200 DMA crossovers and crossunders to indcate bull/bear and buy/sell; then, the TA indicators become just lesser-significant warnings.
We love the nightly reports just the way they are. No offense intended. Why mess with perfection? You’re just trying to get him to keep mucking it up until the origional meaning is hidden from us.
can anyone explain why our stocks are flat and spot is up?
Alex,
I’ve said a hundred times that I use technical analysis as my least important tool and only when it is confirmed by cycles and sentiment.
The cycles and sentiment confirm that this should be a final C-wave rally. So I am going to look for technical setups that confirm that scenario and ignore ones that don’t.
That means every time we see a reversal candle I’m not going to freak out and call the end of the bull or even the end of the C-wave.
Pima, where do I get that program for the PM quotes in the taskbar? I couldn’t find anything that fits that description on the Kitco site.
Gary
I know you’ve said that. thus the smiley 🙂
Dumb Mov avg-
I’m What?? 🙂
THUS THE SMILEY!!
Alex, you have a good head for numbers.
Don’t know about the charts, but my fund balances are dropping… especially silver first, followed by gold.
There is quite a lot of talk building around these juniors on the blog. I can see how novice traders could get sucked into this and put everything on one or two juniors hoping to make a huge score. And then get wiped out when something unexpected happens.
I want to make sure everyone understands these are not something you put a big chunk of ones portfolio in. 5% max should be the rule of thumb. That way if it craters one morning you aren’t going to take a big hit on your portfolio.
The SOX index is busted, somebody better give Beano a heads-up.
After 4 days of side-ways action, really would love to see a nice $30 drop here to setup the action.
James,
You must have a different version of the kcast thingy. Mine is a stand alone program. I can run it with NO windows open (that is, no firefox or IE windows open) and it puts gold and silver prices on the bottom right of the Windows XP Taskbar that’s at the bottom of my screen.
It sounds like you’re running something that runs within IE or Firefox and displays on the Toolbar in that window, right?
Alex,
Just saw the chart you posted on here land over at Turd Ferguson’s blog. You’re famous.
Poly, I see about 7 days so far in this consolidation area, and a smashdown would be constructive IMO also.Lots of people would be calling for a top but gold doesn’t make tops by consolidating for so long at all time highs.
Veronica,
Thanks for the reminder about gold not making broad tops. 🙂
That should give me a little more confidence to finish off my topping off process to my positions when it looks like we’re making some kind of low here.
Poly,
You planning on doing any more lotto plays? If so, just SLV, or have you considered GLD as well?
Pima,
I believe Poly said on a good dip, he would buy APR SLV $40 Calls. Still waiting for that good dip though.
thanks, ddn.
April calls would make me too nervous. I’m looking at June in SLV and/or May or June in GLD.
Tudor,
I should have saved the link. Someone here (TZ maybe) posted the link and I just used it to get the program.
I take a quick look at the kitco site and see if I can find it.
Pima,
for SLV, there are no June options that I can see. Only APR or JUL.
ddn,
yes, I know that about SLV. I’m talking June for GLD, but still might go with May.
Here’s the link for the Kcast for Windows bug:
http://applications.kitco.com/supportcenter/windows/windows-support.html
Blogger ddn3f said…
Alex,
Just saw the chart you posted on here land over at Turd Ferguson’s blog. You’re famous.
March 9, 2011 8:29 AM
WHAT?? What about my copy write!?!
Oh, I dont have one. Oh well 🙂
hope it helps someone ( who is Turd?) Got a link?
My mother just dropped in so I am away for a bit to take her to lunch…Bought EXK a minute ago ( just adding, volume down not too scary on a 3 day chart 🙂
Good day Guys and Gals
Any canadians out there know why there’s almost no volume trading on the TSX?
Tudor,
Here’s a link to Kcast, the program that puts gold and silver prices on your Windows taskbar:
http://applications.kitco.com/supportcenter/windows/windows-support.html
Alex,
http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/03/questions-continue.html#comments
Look for “Turning Japanese” posted March 9, 2009 at 8:00 AM
Alex,
I’m the one who posted a link to your chart over there. I gave you full credit. Hope you don’t mind.
I did have one question though, are trendlines still valid on log scale charts? I’m no TA expert, just wondering.
Thanks
Hey, nice avatar!
Pima,
I’m solely playing SLV this time.
I’m already invested right now, all in July SLV calls at $25, $30, $35 and $40. All of them very deep in the black as they were purchased around the SLV $28 range.
I’m also back to around 35% cash and if I’m going to add any more leverage, I will only do it after a good drop, I will not risk my current profits by getting drawn down on new leverage. At 65% invested, I’m already deeply levered
Yes my lottery play will likely be the $40 level or whatever is priced at around $0.20 at the drop. It’s only a 100 option play though. $2k to make $40k 🙂
The bulk of new leverage will be buying Apr SLV calls priced JUST ITM, so maybe $32 or $33 calls. Buying just ITM calls towards the bottom of a dip can be very profitable.
An imposter!
Ha!
Thanks for the link to Kcast. I got it. Very nice!
T.J. – I saw the Bill Gross commentary too.
As Jim Sinclair said, “QE to infinity for reason few understand.”
There’s a hell of a lot more maturing debt to be refinanced, and they aren’t done spending more yet.
“(CNSNews.com) – The U.S. Treasury is depleting its cash at an accelerating pace, drawing down its cash balance by $81.6 billion in the just the first four days of March, leaving the federal government with only $108.9 billion on hand, according to the Daily Treasury Statement released Monday afternoon.
[…]
The Treasury’s largest single expenditure in the first four days of March, according to the Daily Treasury Statement, was paying off maturing debt. During those four days, Treasury paid $128.477 billion to redeem old bonds. At the same time, it borrowed $133.196 billion by selling new bonds.”
http://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/us-treasury-drew-down-its-cash-balance-8
Considering Gary’s views on juniors, would it be possible for those who want to discuss them to take it elsewhere?
How does one read nonsense sites like that Turd website and others like it and take them seriously?
Every post is about Blythe! Every wiggle and drop is JPM attacking the silver market. Every rally is just good old honest buying from investors and industrial users.
Ryan; I don’t know why the volume is low today on the TSX, probably sideways oil/metals prices.
But the Turd does have a pretty catchy name, you must admit. 🙂
Poly,
You’ve obviously read the blog…so that answers your question.
Yes, it gets a bit tin-foil over there at times, but as with any blog, its worth sifting through for the occasional nugget (see my PM metaphor).
TSX volume is currently around 134,860,000
Guy-
Yes, week is not over yet. So far, looking like we will have a doji type candle or sideways action with the dollar cycle bottoming and putting in a couple days of positive movement there. Dollar should be rolling over again by next week so I’m expecting a strong move to start next week.
FYI. Juniors…I don’t consider SVM, AG, EXK and even AXU to be pure junior plays vs. a US Silver, Arian Silver, Impact Silver, etc. That being said, I do see these guys(EXK,AG) coughing up 10% in a blink of an eye, so newer investors be very careful.
MGN-Alex. This Canadian miners DD thread on Kitco has them as their number one silver miner (Based on FA & a small amt of TA)
https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0AoStOj0lu5BZdG5peFhDSW9fcVRUOE1Yc3ppQzBHQnc&hl=en&authkey=CN2G6PAN#gid=1
Regarding Turd site, et al, what interests me is when an entity holds 18.7% of world production as a short, in a metal I am heavily invested in.
March is a delivery month, so how they bleed off the open interest informs me to direction.
So far it is with cash as delivery is not leaving the vaults, and the closer you get to expiry, the advantage goes to the longs. As this is in alignment with Gary’s cycle (final C wave push)gives me confidence to keep buying the dips.
Mr Savage, I will ax for a third time what are your numbers for your “massive inflation.”?
Could you please quantify that for your readers…
Your second cornerstone of doom is the “collapse” of the US Dollar this year….
I do not believe that will be the case…
I would like for you to give a low for the US Dollar for 2011…
I doubt you will do either…
Is inflation going higher, yes; is the US Dollar going lower, yes, but there will not be a catastrophic movement in either…
BTW, I had taken to heart your advice for not shorting in a rising market!!
That alone was worth the price of admission!
thanks, Poly!
“ax”
what a maroon
w,
I already answered your question the first time you asked it. How many times do you want me to answer the same question.
Or do you want me to give you exact numbers? If that’s what you are looking for I can’t do that. My crystal ball does work any better than anyone else’s.
My expectation is that the dollar will make at least marginal now lows at the three year cycle low. That’s as close as I can get.
Gary is calling for a strong move down, not a collapse of the dollar.
I think we will see the 60’s on the index personally.
Ever heard of client hedging? JPM is a Broker/Dealer and custodian too. You have no information as to the break down of their short positions. Are trades by Prop desks, on behalf of client investors, mining companies, ETF’s? What are their long positions?
Just makes ZERO sense, a firm (for profit) of this caliber would blindly enter these massive positions for such long periods.
W.
There is no such thing as an exact number..so your question is unfair.
I will not speak for “Mr. Savage”, but currency deflation is what we term as inflation.
In terms of a dollar demise, this has already taken place and continues. Inflation as a best guess seems to average 7%, but may be higher during recent times. At 7% we get a complete destruction of a currency in 40 years.
Saying things are not more expensive is foolish.
I think we should all get Bernanke avatars
A quick note in support of Gary’s waring to be careful with junior minors. I’ve held Alderon Resources (ADV.V) since last Oct. The company is drilling for Iron Ore, with significant resources found, and has run from $1.25 to $4.00 over the last six months. Today, with no news but a halt in trading, the stock dropped 25%…..! Since I have less than 1% of my portfolio in this security, no big deal. However, had I made a larger investment, I’d be crying in my beer, and it’s morning time here on the left coast.
From Kevin Depew at Minyanville:
As I stated yesterday, Silver recorded a TD Sequential DAILY 13 sell signal, good for 12 days, but needing a bearish price flip (close below the close 4 days earlier) to confirm. Overlapping bar 8 today of a 9 DAILY sell setup that needs another new high for silver today or tomorrow to perfect (achieve full exhaustion) Didn’t quite get there this morning…
Silver Wheaton (SLW) recorded a DAILY sequential sell, again good for 12 days, on Monday and may confirm today with a bearish price flip. Also, if it closes below a TD Reference Close down level at 43.72,this will be more bearish for SLW in the short-term.
coolkevs, am I the only one who finds this stuff to be largely incomprehensible gibberish? Thank goodness Gary’s commentary is in plain, readily usable English. jmho.
Let me translate Coolkeys comment into layman’s terms.
Based on Kevin Depeu’s technical analysis, in the near term silver and SLW will flip down unless..it keeps going up.
Please do not take the PM juniors comments elsewhere. We have rookies here and experienced investors. If you are a rookie, do what Gary says or suffer the consequences, and if you have any doubt as to which you are, you are too new to be playing juniors (or at least do it very, very, small). But there is no reason to move gold-related stuff elsewhere. You cannot protect people who do not have discipline by hiding the candy.
I know most are just concentrating on metals but if anyone has an opinion about citibank that could chime in, I’d appreciate it. I still hold a decent position currently green and thinking of just moving that into one of our favs. Any thoughts?
there’s candy??!!
Poly, I am sure you know that JPM controlling this many positions is a concentration tht moves market, I don’t care why or for whom.
It is causing great concerns, and it is telling to me that since they were not forced out of these positions already through clients being asked to spread bets across multiple prop desks, the JPM is controlling them for their own book and for their own reasons.
DG! you are around!! I thought that you were off travelling!!!
What are your thoughts about S&P?
I forgot PLEASE DG… sorry, it is rush hour for me, kids,dinner and bath ( for the kids…) Living in London Beach. UK
Hey bob
Can you expand on what you were talking about earlier regarding options as they get closer to the expiration.
Do they seem to go higher right before their expiration?
Gary,
I talked to a friend of mine about your blog..Do you mind if I send her the link? She could be interested in sign-in….
Haggerty, Those traders standing for delivery have already put money in escrow to take delivery at the end of March, there is more traders standing for delivery at this time than metal in the COMEX, so they are playing game theory with the shorts/exchange. Either they are bribed off the position through a cash settlement, or price falls enough to trigger their sell stops.
This happened in December, review the prices as it came closer to delivery, it went up. Then Jan sold off, and in Feb traders started to build for the March Delivery month, and here we are.
I believe we sell off after this expiration as well, and build for I think May is next delivery.
The fact this ties with Gary’s cycles gives me great comfort.
ok, funmike, I’ve done my part (well, let’s see if this works)
funmike,
ball’s now in your court.
HawaiiBob,
“Sell off after this delivery”, what would that date be?
Thanks!
Thanks DG, I for one do not invest in all the recommends but I will touch the odd one with very limited exposure … GPL for example was very nice TYVM Alex … please do not stop or take it elsewhere.
thanks bob
Thank you, Mr Savage, Jayhawk and Mr Keys…
Let me see if this works
Where’s the support level for SLW?
Pima, 3/29/2011 is settlement.
Sophia
The blog is free
thanks, Bob!
vuvvy,
did Gold close up at 1:30? It looks like it is setting up for a down day tomorrow if USERX closes negative.
Sorry Bob, JPM doesn’t control them, again, they are a broker/dealer!
DG,
We need some “play” signal’s from you! 🙂
Does JPM have a prop desk?
marinho,
The way I read gold futures, the closing price on the 30 min bar that began at 1PM is higher today than yesterday, so yes, gold closed at 1:30 at a higher price today than yesterday’s close.
Yep, still nothing to be done.
@Bob loves Hawaii
You should review JPM’s latest 10-Q. There is no budget in it for a short position.
So, unless JPM’s audited financials are a fraud, no silver short exists. End of story.
I would remind you that if fraud existed, the person who outed them to the SEC not only wouldn’t go to jail, but would be rich from the payout for exposing them.
The rise in AGQ from the August low to the 10/14 high is almost exactly the same percent as the rise from the January low to the March peak.
Then there were 3 relatively flat days.
Then….
Let’s be careful out there.
Here is a little nugget for everyone to read.
http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/
Wes,
You wrote:
“So, unless JPM’s audited inancials are a fraud”
hahahahaha
Of course they are a fraud! Mark to market is out, and Repo 101 is in! They are all a bunch of lying crooks!
(However, this JPM huge silver short that will cause them to implode–that seems pretty far fetched to me. 😉
Yes, pit session closed up and USERX will likely be down.I’ve done some more work on pit up/USERX down the last 5 years and the results are mixed with no real edge.Pit down/Userx up is the reliable pair.
WES,
Good observation, Jayhawk showed the same argument but on the bullish side comparing time from the bottom, not price as you show. Both show a case for being bullish and prudent. What it does clearly show is the slope of the gains.
With Gary’s cycles screaming for a daily low to occur and the fact that we’ve had no meaningful (scary) decline since those $26 levels in Jan, I find it hard to believe this bull will provide a free ride into the $40’s from here.
wes
agq touched ma20 after that in oct with 12% decline .. same here will make it around 184 where ma20 can be in 2-3 days now.
Yeah, but by staying heavily invested we can play it either way.
The dip would be almost ideal, though.
>TZ could be right…If NATO decided a no-fly zone on Libya by the weekend, stocks will be massively up and precious metals will tank….
I need people to understand where I’m coming from. I’m not saying precious metals will “tank”. I simply said that I see some *short term* topping action that makes me believe the odds of us pulling back BRIEFLY are a BIT more than continuing to rally straight up. (Even though silver drops might be brief, they are often sharp).
Going straight up would be *wonderful*. I have wished for that for the entire 10yr bull mkt, but strangely, it never seems to happen. Hmmm…why is that? 🙂
For the people who don’t know, I am 7X leveraged long on gold and silver futures. (Actually it is down to about 5X now due to gains over last few weeks. I intend to bump it up again if we get a silver drop to $33 or so).
I’m probably the *most* leveraged person on this blog. And I haven’t sold a bit since the Jan low. I think my position tells you clearly where I’m coming from.
I’m CERTAINLY not screaming doom and gloom or telling people the bull is over. And I don’t have a crystal ball any more than gary does.
I’m only saying I’m not going to add anything HERE right NOW and was voicing my reasons as to why there might be a *temporary* correction in the next few days.
To the extent that it seemed that many new people WERE adding here and now, I wanted to at least contribute my concern in that regard. Maybe misplaced.
So far things look STRONG and I’m as HAPPY as anybody else about it. No corrections FOREVER MORE would be great!, but I’m expecting one and waiting to buy – for what it is worth. If it doesn’t happen I’ll be plenty fine.
o.k so much for my big up day today.
I am encouraged that gold did not sell off.
Trading sideways should at least give us a higher bollinger cap.
TZ,
We never finished our discussion from a while back of the effects of the Fed increasing the money base.
I like Cullen Roche’s example of the apple seller. By displaying 10 apples on his shelf, the apple seller was able to sell 3 apples a day. So the apple seller decided to increase the number of apples he displayed to 100 in hopes of increasing his sales.
As you might expect, he still sold only 3 apples a day.
In this example the apples are loans, the apple seller is a bank, and the increased apple display is the Fed increasing the money base.
Only the apples sold (loans made) add to the money supply. The additional display space (bank reserves derived from the increased money base) in no way effects money supply. The banks have never been reserve constricted.
But the banks have to earn a return on the money they are getting from the Fed. Instead of making questionable loans that might or might not be paid back they are plowing that money into asset markets.
The best return obviously has and will be in the commodity markets.
This is why the Fed’s printing is causing commodity inflation.
Miners took a decent dump but metals still up. You guys think that’s a precursor to metals pulling back?
TZ, 7x leveraged? Either your total is low or your constitution forged steel.
Wes, I like your apple metaphor. However, it’s not quite that simple. True, as far as commercial loans go your metaphor holds up – banks have not been lending, hence the economy is not growing.
However, If a bank is a) given the leeway of ignoring mark-to-market and b) stuffed with reserves provided by the Fed, how do stock and commodity purchases by the bank get counted? I admit ignorance on this point but I doubt they are classified as typical loans. If a bank is able to ignore its shitty balance sheet via the Fed, it seems very likey that they would try to lever up in the one area that IS growing: the stock market. And at 0% interest no less!
Directly related is what portion of the Fed purchases are going to reserves? Is it 1:1? Because if it isn’t, then any money that the banks keep can get levered 12:1 under marginal reserve lending practices. I would be curious to know the real ratio…
Finally, whatever lending IS occuring is happenin at a fairly juicy rate given that they can borrow at 0% and lend at … 5%? That spread = profits = investments that can be levered 12:1 in the stock and commodity markets.
This doesn’t fit most people’s definition of inflation but then again, most people’s definition is too rigid and semantics becomes a problem. The fact is that we have too much money chasing the few things that are still performing, causing massive bubbles and risking the integrity of the currency.
Gary,
I think you are correct, but more likely it’s the hedge funds that are getting the money in the overnight markets doing the buying, rather than the banks. The banks are payed interest on their reserves held with the Fed.
Many think that is part of the reason the banks are so restrictive on their loans.
But to us, it really doesn’t matter who is doing the commodity purchasing, because it is certainly happening.
I’ll point out that while the US money supply has been growing about 3.5% per year since 2009, and Europe has been growing the euro about 2.3% per year, China’s money supply has been increasing at an estimated 24.6% per year during this period.
I suspect it’s the Chinese who are really goosing the world markets in commodities. After all, that’s where the big inflation is.
Miyagi,
>TZ, 7x leveraged? Either your total is low or your constitution forged steel.
The way I trade suits my personality. However it is also based on hard work, specific rules and skills developed over time.
The market cares little about whether a person has a will of steel. If you are wrong you will get hit.
My entries are tight at specific buy points with *very* small and limiting stops. That is the only way I’m able to safely (as best possible) get into a large position. (The trick of course is to get in and not immediately get stopped out – that’s why the buy points have to be picked carefully).
Gary’s cycles work helps me pick those buy points even better. Note however he isn’t a fan of high leverage and I have taken my fair share of hits in years past. It isn’t all gravy.
The Chinese have huge inflation problems of their own, they can not convert their huge export earnings and bring them home.
With a trillion dollars of rapidly depreciating dollars in reserve, they already have all the bonds they want to hold. You don’t need much of this excess to find its way into commodities to significantly move the needle.
TZ,
10% in silver, I call that tanking…even if for couple of days,….and I will be buyingit
Wes,
What are you getting at in your post re: AGQ?
Wes, the comments on the Chinese bring up another source of US cash: the stimulus bill(s). The Treasury is printing like crazy and the Fed gobbles it up instantly, sending the cash into the hands of the Primary Dealers (most of which are banks). THIS IS SEPERATE FROM THE RESERVES BEING HELD AT THE FED – this is newly printed money, period. We’ve been litterally printing $1.5T/year for 3 years now! Now lever that up 12:1 when it goes through the big banks!
Low Tax,
I think there is a great deal of misunderstanding in the mark to market question.
During the financial crisis, the only sales being made in almost all of the bond markets were distress sales made by those desperate to raise cash at any cost. Under those circumstances, mark to market hardly made any sense, as it grossly undervalued nearly all securities.
To my knowledge, the banks are using mark to model pricing on most of their bonds. While this may not be totally accurate in all cases, they are certainly not carrying these securities at full costs.
Wes, you are too funny re JPM and no budget for shorting. They absolutely can have massive short exposure in silver for their own book and have it totally offset.
Did they say in their 10-K they do not short silver? Or not engage in prop trading in the silver market?
Does JPM trade short through a Special purpose corporation like Bear Stearns did?
If not then case is not closed.
BTW, I can care less about JPM, someone is massively short silver in the paper market and it is holding prices lowe than if they were not. since I am long silver, it holds my interest.
I also worked for a public company at a hig enough level to see how 10-K’s are shaped to tell a story, and only enough disclosure to satisfy the lawyers.
Funny story:
I just grabbed a sandwich at Whole Foods here in Santa Monica. I was eating it on the patio, checking my stocks, when I hear the guy behind me checking his stocks…
“First Majestic, down 2%. Great Panther….”
I turned around and it was a bunch of dudes in their 20s eating lunch at the table behind me, taking junior silver stocks.
This, to me, was a near-death experience, as I always seem to overhear people talking about gold at major tops.
Scared yet?
Anyway, it turns out these guys work for Euro Pacific Capital, Peter Schiff’s company. We wound up chatting for a couple of minutes about silver. They were skeptical about the idea that silver was going to $50 in the next few weeks, for what that’s worth. They also thought that gold has been acting punk. Not a lot of rabid sentiment even from them.
Turning Japanese
No Problem, I dont have my own site or use them for commercial purpose at all.
I actually just draw those for some buddies of mine that get shaky on pullbacks. It keeps me thinking of possibilities and helps them stay focused 🙂
As for the chart log/ linear??…I always use linear for trendlines , but for that chart I wasnt really trying to point out price targets using trendlines for them. It was more to show that -after the break of a consolidation in a C-wave inthe past , the pullbacks were nothing to really panic over. ( my buddies are rather new , needing the bigger picture.)
Glad they may have helped.
ROFL,
If Schiff boys in their $20’s don’t think Silver can get to $50, then sentiment is LOW! No bigger bull than clown Schiff.
They think silver is going to $130 and maybe beyond.
They were just a little skeptical about $50 in 6-8 weeks.
Eric Sprott explains why silver is going to substantially continue outperforming gold.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/03/08/canada-pdac-sprott-idUSN0812540320110308
Nice to see the dollar reversed today.
James
FWIW, I know some of the higher ups at Schiff’s place. They are definitely gold/silver bulls but do NOT believe we are about to go parabolic. I think this is a good thing if even the most ardent bulls are not anticipating a big move soon (assuming Gary’s correct and he has been so far!).
Sophia,
>10% in silver, I call that tanking
Semantics I guess. Different people take that word for different results (it is like the ‘inflation’ debate).
Thus it was important for me to quantify so as to not scare people improperly as Brian noted.
In my world, if the drop in silver constitutes little more than a single red candle week on a chart or only a partial retracement of a huge recent move, then it isn’t much of a ‘tank’.
Nevertheless it would be an unhappey event and hurt. So to each their own in how the interpret it.
David-
Nice story!!
Low Tax,
Boy, you bring up a great point and there is hardly any discussion on this blog about it. The deficit spending by Congress does add to the money supply when it is funded by the Treasury, and it adds dollar for deficit dollar.
I guess because it doesn’t directly involve the Fed, and it’s out in the open, it’s outside most theories about people who conspire against the common man.
So far, though, this has been largely offset by the collapse of assets (home loans written off, ,etc). But the fear of future deficit spending by Congress should definitely add to commodity demand.
Wes – that is not what I’ve read with regards to MtoM. I believe they banks are horribly distorting the values of both their residential and commercial real estate holdsings, whether direct or securitized.
Regardless, my second point about the stimulus bill(s) is valid – that money is nothing but printing – the Fed has been turning over fresh CUSIPs in about two weeks after issue. Where I come from, that’s called printing money and is completely outside the bank reserve issue. $1.5T/yr worth for 3+ years and no end in sight. Then lever that through the PDs at 12:1!
Wes, sorry, I hit ‘Publish’ before I saw your latest comment 🙂
Bob in Hawaii,
Don’t overlook the obvious. The silver producers are massively short the silver market. And, I’ll bet many are locking in current prices against future production.
This is another reason it’s a crap shoot to own the miners. You never know whose swimming naked until the tide goes out.
Blogger Vish said…
Considering Gary’s views on juniors, would it be possible for those who want to discuss them to take it elsewhere?
March 9, 2011 9:16 AM
So then you’d spend your day reading …
Jim said: “Ah , SLW up 2%”
VISH said, ” Yup ,, cycle bottom in a month ago, ride em!”
Jim said , ” Yup, Cycle bottom in about 33 days ago..Ride em , AGQ and SLW”
VISH said , “33 or 35 days ago , cycle IT bottom?”
jim said , ” gotta go , fallin asleep dude!” haha 🙂
( just razzin ya a bit Vish ), but really..no more comments on Juniors…quite a few good posters here would be “takin it elsewhere” ( fade in the sound of crickets)
Someone asked about SLW support?
Well, it hit it’s 10 DMA for the first time since Feb 1st today, so you can tell this one has been running pretty hard. I’m looking at these various lines of support.
Worse case the 20 MA around 40 hold if things sell off a bit more. Best case would be the trend line & break out zone around 41.50-42
SLW
Silver looks like it’s got a pennant/wedge thing on the 4H
Silver
Wes,
That is a big reason to love SLW!
Veronica / Vuvvy,
What is your updated stop sell signal for Gold from your system? Thanks!
>Don’t overlook the obvious. The silver producers are massively short the silver market. And, I’ll bet many are locking in current prices against future production.
If silver producers are short the silver market on production they don’t have yet, then it is very likely THEY will be the ones capitulating on this move up and they are forced to cough up cash the don’t have or take out bank loans to meet margin calls.
I would also suspect that:
1) The boys like Goldman and Morgan know who the weak shorts are and where their accounts start to crack, and
2) will be taking advantage of the pressure too.
Whoever is short silver has still not managed to get out and they are still in trouble I suspect.
SI: Based on today’s move, there’s another reversal pattern on the hourly chart, albeit below the prior high, which means the patterns are lower probability. The reversal is down. The high was on SIK11 364.4 and low 356.1. The spread is .83.
The target #’s will be, when this reversal is violated: 372.7 = X; 3X – 389.3 and 6X, the biggest stretch against this setup – 414.2
FWIW.
Vish,
Some folks have made some very decent “pocket change” on some of the juniors identified by some very smart investors on this blog. Please just ignore those posts if you’re not interested (but do so at your own risk 🙂
Avann said…
Thanks DG, I for one do not invest in all the recommends but I will touch the odd one with very limited exposure … GPL for example was very nice TYVM Alex … please do not stop or take it elsewhere.
March 9, 2011 11:23 AM
Thank you Avann & DG- I dont even invest or trade them all , but they go on a watchlist . And I personally look into PRODUCERS with Shiny bricks for sale. Not drillers and explorers.
And I always say I agree with Garys post…watching out for subs that may be inexperienced or new. But I also post because we have some sharp & NIMBLE traders out there.
POLY (UR PIC) aaahhhhhhh
David (ur story) That WAS funny/scary. I think $50 silver in 6 to 8 weeks seems hard to believe too…more like 4 wks!!
Poly: I’ve been out traveling this week so have not posted any short-term ideas to play. I also just landed and saw your post from this morning. I’m home Friday and will start posting setups again. Yeah, not much to do in the PM’s for now. Maybe we’ll still get that dip, but it ought to come soon if at all. I do have some $ to deploy if we get it.
System stop is now at 1423.30
Wes, I only own junior miners, and none I own have hedged anything. Plus aren’t the miners about the worse market timers?
The industrial markets for silver are growing faster than production, and in the industry I am in (Solar) they use a gram of silver per solar panel.
I’ll take my chances with the companies I own.
I am and will be buying GORO on every down day. They are the last of my positions to complete purchases on.
Veronica/vuvvy: to be clear—if that system stop is triggered it would constitute a buy signal given where we are in the intermediate trend, correct?
DG,
I think that’s what vuvvy said. He found that with his system, it’s been marking the daily cycle low. I would like to add more as well so I might take the signal. I’m thinking add in a chunk with vuvvy’s signal and then the rest if Gary adds his leverage. What are your thoughts?
Wes, It has been pretty well publicized that all the large cap miner have cleared their hedge books. It is my understanding that some juniors sell forward contracts to get financing to start up projects. Hedges are usually required by financiers.
Veronica, 1423 was hit today according to stockcharts.
Brian,
I believe vuvvy’s signal was 1419 EOD yesterday and today’s EOD signal is 1423.30 which is for tomorrow.
Gary,
Can a daily cycle low consist of a consolidation instead of an actual move down? Is it possible that is what is happening with silver and gold?
Stop was at 1419 today and moved up to 1423 after Globex close.DG,there are no guarantees but the system sells will many times mark general bottoming areas early in an IT cycle like we’re in now.My gameplan is if my stop is hit to just watch till the end of the day and buy with a stop at or just below the low of day. If I get stopped out then I will wait to see where Gary will add and finish leveraging when I get a new buy which will be somewhere near the all time high.I will not be buying immediately when the stop is hit because we very well could get a washout to Gary’s target by EOD.Hope that makes sense.
I’m probably the *most* leveraged person on this blog.
— I doubt it 😉
Thanks vuvvy for explaining it more in detail and adding Gary’s strategy in there. You saved me from jumping the gun if I see 1424 and saying oh close enough 🙂
Brian,
The Gold price seems relatively well established in that it has been within 20% of present levels for quite a while.
Silver, on the other hand has rather freshly achieved the mid $30’s and looks in need of a rest. I’d suppose that these prices look pretty juicy to many silver producers.
Just a hunch, though.
Ryan, that seems reasonable, but I do a lot of tape reading when I place a trade. For example, what are the miners doing? Did the PM drop look panicky? What are the other commodities doing? So it’s not just about a signal for me, though I am going to add on any sharp drop at this point.
Gary, You mentioned stops changes using the HUI; how would I use this for GLD, SLW, SLV, SIL, and AGQ? And I am guessing that you mean getting out of the stocks, it would be anything other than the metals? I sold off the miners, took profits and put back into the metals, (more into silver as I was already heavy in gold). Thanks in advance. I feel like I am playing catch up, but trying to keep up with what I should be doing.
Gary,
Don’t know if you noticed, but when I was posting on the growth rates of the money supply in dollars and in euros earlier, since 2009 the dollar money supply has been growing 50% faster than the euro money supply.
This, coupled with the ECB talking of raising rates, may be all the incentive the money traders need to sink the dollar.
Gary,
You show the possible Flag formation in Gold, does it not also look like a cup and handle?
veronica, where is gary’s target?
Gary
Has there ever been a runaway move in any of the past C waves?
“Veronica said…
Yes, pit session closed up and USERX will likely be down.I’ve done some more work on pit up/USERX down the last 5 years and the results are mixed with no real edge.Pit down/Userx up is the reliable pair.”
Veronica, what’s the ratio of win/lose on that trade, ballpark?
Thx for the thought, not that I’ll act on it.
Terrill,
Any stop is used as a trade trigger to stop out of all precious metal positions.
Interesting futures action in the S & P tonight.
Gary,
I know this obvious to everyone else, however, just trying to see in my mind, if we are in for the ride with this bull, why the need for stops? I understand selling to take the profits at the near top or top of the c wave, and reinvest at lower prices. What am I missing with stops on this bull? Sorry, I know it’s probably obvious, but still have to ask to wrap my mind around this. Is it the worry of the market totally tanking when the dollar goes and protection of assets to play later?
In an uptrend the market will make higher highs and higher lows. As long as that pattern continues the spring C-wave scenario is intact.
If that pattern reverses it would be a warning sign that either a D-wave has begun or that gold may go through another summer consolidation and the final leg up won’t come till this fall.
I think the odds of either one of those scenarios is very small but I’m not going to let my bias cause me to get trapped in a position if the market tells me I’m wrong.
thanks, vuvvy. I like your game plan. But if your stop is hit, I am not sure whether I will be able to keep my impatient trigger happy finger away from the buy button till EOD.
🙂
Gary,
Nice report.
Could be a very exciting day tomorrow.
James
Gold now in a triangle congestion for over a week now. Something will happen soon. Congestions like this don’t tend to hold on much longer.
The “day of rage” in the mideast is this friday as well (which means it should be well under way when we open friday morning…and be on people’s minds heading into a weekend close!)
We might have one more day of flat activity, but the excitement will start soon in metals I suspect.
Ok, I think I understand. You have a stop to preserve funds on a fast downturn (D wave) or get your leverage down or out if the ride is going to take longer (into fall) to crest.
I know I am in for the long ride, however want to learn how to trade the bull to take some profits along the way also. thanks!
K proctor, Gary’s target for a buy on a washout has been sub 1400 at the 20 period ma, I believe.
Slumdog,Gold pit down/USERX up is a winner about 90% of the time with an average profit of 15 points in 2-3 days. The opposite of that pair is not worth trading.
If the big boys can sense any weakness in the metal longs, we might well see an attempt to paint a downside breakout in the next 24hrs.
Make it look like the resolution is to the downside, shake some longs and pattern traders, get some selling, etc.
“They” see the triangle on the daily charts just like we do and it isn’t hard to guess that a push lower would be a valid play. Maybe just a few thou contracts overnight or so.
I referred my tax attorney to your service today. After we went through all the expenses and I saw how much I have spent (to learn about so many peoples opinions) on subscriptions and stock and option tips. I showed him your fee and said, this one is worth it’s weight in gold 2000 X’s over! Savings and profits, can’t be beat! Thanks for offering thorough insight and honest judgment every day. I can’t believe how much I have already learned from you in less than 2 months. Took me a while to learn your lingo, however I can’t believe how much more I understand now. Thank you, thank you, thank you!
sorry POLY!
I meant PIMAS pic—aaahhh
http://www.kitco.com/ind/Willie/images/mar092011_2.jpg
long term dollar chart w/ big triangle ready to go lower
TZ,
I think you could be right. The Big Boyz know that dumb money is probably obsessing over the congestion in that triangle right now.
If *I* were in the Big Boyz, I would try to start a scary downdraft to 34ish tomorrow and Friday.
“http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-post-coming-rout
An article very relevant to Gary and others views of upcoming market events.”
TZ, this guy is an amazingly self-involved, possibly narcissistic man. The number of unstated assumptions, which he assumes are facts which are not in evidence, undermine his thesis. This is one of those guys out there who is lucky that he’s riding the game, just like the real estate investors. Where’s his prescience? His prior record is no better than that of the RE investors holding the bag. Fear monger. Malarky.
“Day of Rage” Saudi Arabia this friday. Things could get interesting.
Poly said…
After 4 days of side-ways action, really would love to see a nice $30 drop here to setup the action.
Poly, I’ve seen rises out of these high level consolidations that just “float up”.
You’re wishing for a really recognizable drop-back-and-kick scenario. This trashing of the gold high of 1434.10 is all one needs for a serious move. The immediacy of getting somewhere is gone. Most of the extended traders have jumped out one side or the other.
IMO, the PM’s are primed to blow up significantly.
USD at 77 again…
just pierced it
Hit 77,136 today.
Interesting article at
http://www.thetsitrader.blogspot.com/
targeting $48 silver and $1700 gold in next leg up.
Very high chance we break 1410 today or tomorrow. That should be the bottom.
Slumdog, you might well be right.
Judging by the action this morning and the time for a cycle here, it’s looking like today is going to be “moving day”. Buckle up.
My system signal was generated overnight which is pretty rare.Let’s see what happens today.
Poly,
A high school classmate designed the first option on the soybean future contract for the CBOE. I visited him once back in the 80’s and he told me a joke about the definition of a professional futures trader: it’s somebody who starts with nothing, makes a fortune, loses it all to the point where the moving vans are backed up at his/her house to take all the personal property away; and then comes back to make another fortune. I thought of that joke when I read your reference to “moving day”.
david,
if 1410 is your bottom pick for gold, what’s the idea on silver?
guy,
I think gold will break 1410, so the bottom won’t be 1410 but somewhere below that. I would say between 1405 and 1398.
I think silver could bottom on the high 33’s.
Moody down grade Spain due to its estimates the cost of bailing out Spain’s banks could be as much as €120 billion, depending on what happens with the country’s real estate sector.
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/spain-moodys-downgrade-2011-3#ixzz1GCJv0o00
Even with the downgrade, the Dollar is having a hard time breaking above 77
This is the problem that I have with all this dollar index analysis. No one is trading this asset.
There will be trillions of dollars being traded on the EURUSD today, and traders are watching this asset. It’s not like the EURUSD traders are watching the dollar index and saying: Oh shit! Better buy the EURUSD because the dollar index is running up against the 77 resistance. They are making their decisions based on EURUSD.
ChecIng twitter every 6.5 minutes =)
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Hey Hammy … it’s not like we weren’t expecting and waiting for it … we just choose not to trade around it …
hammy,
Nobody here is surprised to see a pullback, we’re trading different timeframes than you. To gloat like the game ends today and you’re the winner is a shortsighted joke.
I bet just about everybody here is up substantially more than you, having ridden more of the bull. You’ll be left behind, more easily shaken out in future pullbacks, or not have nearly big enough positions for up moves in the future. You just keep on guessing the next couple hours, and we’ll stick with our plan.
Good luck with that. 🙂
Can I have your autograph?
And Hammy also has another job to perform (IT). He better hope he doesn’t miss the coming cycle low while fixing somebody’s ‘puter!
And that his boss doesn’t find him checking quotes and doing his “analysis” every 10 minutes. lol
Hamster, I don’t think anyone here is surprised with the weakness as we’ve all been waiting for a cycle low.Anyways, good call and what do you see next?
Are you kidding me Hammy? Your predictions are NEVER wrong. You cover every basis with tons of caveats…its impossible to be wrong. But to follow it up with I told you so, is silly.
Hamster,
Huh? This is the regular daily cycle low SMT subs are expecting and some are hoping for to add to their positions. This low happens around every 20+ days or so.
And how does catching this top increase the chance of you catching the “final” whatever?
Wierd! What are you smoking?
If I was as good as hammy, I’d over-leverage my account every single trade, catching each and every little jiggle. Since he was so sure of this exact move, why did he not short, especially since he only cares about the next couple hours?
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Its hard for gold to stay above 1410 today/tomorrow, the question is if it will break 1400. I think not, since there will be too many buyers waiting for it.
1405 would be ideal, and thats where I plan on starting my adding.
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Yes, you might consider following your own advice abotu recognizing what’s important.
By my estimate, you have 3-4 more years of trading before you see the bigger picture, at least it took me that long to shake the need to respond to every wiggle.
You see, nobody here was looking to exit, so staying in for a pullback has nothing to do with missing the top (or eventual top) of the C-wave.
hamster,
It says a lot about a trader when he feels the need to go back to a board to tell everyone about a call he made several days ago. It worked out for you? Great! But the fact that you feel the need to come back here and remind everyone of what you said shows how it is more important for you to have people praise you than it is to make money.
This is how patient hands make real money. The big boys dip in and buy when the market falls, buying from the active trader.
There is also the invisible hand of the Chinese government which is constatly buying at certain prices.
Patience is the key, and rest assured I would gather most trader’s and most investors for that matter, will not have the stomach for the ride. I don’t know how many times I have walked away from the computer, confidient in the big picture, but human in my reaction.
Keep the course. Go listen to Obama speak or listen to Ben blame other countries for inflation. I still believe QE3 is on its way(in whatever form); I just don’t see the demand for gov debt, and don’t think the FED will have the choice since they refuse to let rates rise. I guess this is an item of debtate, but its only one feather on the old turkey. Many others, if this one falls off. 🙂
In other words, keys thinks the hammys of the world create the dips that the pros buy into.
Thanks hammy!
Ok my friends – with such a long list of complains – and not even trying the get the point of my posts – I leave it to that.
Hammy will not post here again.
I have not the slightest need to.
FWIW
I have extrapolated the 20 sma for $Gold EOD and $Silver EOD for March 10 (today) using the slope. They are listed below
20 sma for March 10, 2011
$Gold @ ~$1404.03
$Silver ~@ $33.28
Here are the slopes I have estimated off the the 20 sma
Gold ~$4.24/day
Silver ~0.31/day
Just to clarify, I have nothing against trading the short term wiggles, and believe that if you have an edge in that, you will be better off than the ones who are riding the wiggles up and down.
The problem was the necessity to say “I told you so”. If you made money on your trade, that is all that matters.
Hammy,
I should as “Did YOU get the point of our posts?”
We were waiting/expecting this dip.
If this is all you can offer on you ability to predict short-term and final tops then no thanks – I will stick with Gary 🙂
Jayhawk,
Are you around, I think you posted the chart that says in the Aug – Dec run from last year that silver usually bounced off the 10 DMA. Am I reading that right?
I also do not have a problem with short term trades, and make them all the time, but that is not how I trade a monster bull and the only one that’s left. 🙂
The problem is that hammy hasn’t realized that nobody here is trading his time frame, so gloats to the wrong crowd.
I don’t have a problem with Hamster’s call at all.Maybe some know him from somewhere else?At least he didn’t come here with 2 identities:) I would actually like to know what he sees coming up.
Rebeccas prices at the 20 ma’s sound like a good general area to add, especially if they take another day to get there.
Let’s see what happens, but I’m looking for windows to buy.
Hammy usually posts good stuff. He’s from the kitco boards and of course he trades smaller timeframes than most here. Good job on getting out at the top of that last move. Hammy also occasionally posts longer-term views which are always helpful.
Hamster,
I do not take offense. But the day is not over yet. We’ll see, you may or may not be right.
My thinking that gold is the new substitute for the dollar and we should not see a sell off in gold today but a rise in gold.
I of course could be wrong, but this is my thinking.
Stick around and continue to post.
James
For what its worth, Gary called the top as well…he simply didn’t trade it, but his letter has been been saying that we were due.
I don’t have an issue with hammy. I believe SB said it best when we were talking different timeframes. With a larger timeframe one can put more money to work, and of course make more.
Not to mentione one can live beyond the computer clicking….if your index finger can lift up more weight than your entire hand, you may have a problem. 🙂
Hi,
Anyone looking to add to position today on AGQ? If so, what will be your trigger?
Thanks.
The 20 DMA is rising about $3.36 per day. The 20 today should be about 1403.15. By Friday 1406 and Monday about $1410.
Hopefully we will reach our buy spot by Friday or Monday.
My danger zone in gold is 1390. I don´t want to see weakness below this level. If it happens I think the odds are high that something else is going on.
In the Euro my danger zone is 1.37. Any weakness below that level and I am also abandoning my PM positions for the time being.
Hi Gary,
Your estimate is slightly different from mine. I have $Gold 20 sma moving at ~$4.24 per day. The estimate was averaged over 9 days. Then again the difference is not taht significant since the estimate is only a reference point.
I would be very surprise if we hit the 20dma. I think the perception of gold is changing and people are buying gold as oppose to the dollar.
James
I cant see the USD going past 77.5, lets hope it holds.
With all this Libya mania going on the dollar should be much higher. The fact that it is not tells me gold is the place to be.
March 15
April 26-27
June 21-22
Are the schedule dates for FOMC meetings. If I am correct about QE3, there should be no indication of stopping QE2 and more so a firm commitment to finish QE2, and second a feeler for QE3 should be given after the March 15th meeting. No feeler for QE3 after the next meeting, and I will most likely be wrong about QE3. I think April will be too late to test the waters for the FED; I think March is a better timeline. Basically I am looking for the FED to give a feeler for QE3, and if the market reacts positively(ie goes up), I believe a firmer announcement will be made in April, and an official statement in June. March is my key date though.
FOR THE BOARD, I HAVE A PORTION OF A COMPANY ADMINISTERED 401K WITH AN INVESTMENT COMPANY THAT HAS VERY LIMITED OPTIONS FOR INVESTMENTS. FOR EXAMPLE THERE IS NO “PRECIOUS METALS” OR COMMODITY FUND.
I HAVE THE CHOICE OF SEVERAL DOMESTIC STOCK FUNDS AND A FEW INTERNATIONAL OPTIONS, AND THEN A STABLE VALUE OR BOND FUND OPTIONS, I READ GARY’S CONCERN OVER THE STOCK MARKET AND THEM BILL GROSS’ MOVE OUT OF TREASURIES, AND FIND MYSELF WITH NO PALATABLE OPTIONS ANY THOUGHTS ON OUT OF THESE OPTIONS WHERE TO PLACE THE FUNDS?
The problem is that a decision made today is meaningless.
It will be politically impossible to run QE3 during a dollar collapse which is what I expect to be happening at the bottom of the three year cycle.
Extrapolating today’s conditions into the future is a big mistake. It was only the flash crash last May and subsequent market melt down that made QE2 possible.
A dollar collapse in the next 2 months will make QE3 impossible.
The three year cycle will bottom and it will be followed by a monster rally in the dollar. Just like it has for the last 40 years.
K,
If you don’t have any resource funds you might consider just going to cash. Yes your purchasing power will get clobbered briefly as the dollar falls into the three year cycle low but it will come back when the dollar rallies. Then you can use that extra purchasing power to buy stocks again at the next 4 year cycle low in 2012.
This week’s issue of The Economist has a cover title of “Just as the world economy was recovering”. The background picture shows an oil barrel lit by a fuse, as if the spike in oil prices were some big surprise. I suppose those journalists weren’t reading Gary’s blog for the past two years!
Gary,
True enough…the actual event of QE3 may not take place, but an indication for QE3 might be enough to set the fireworks off. I am not married to the idea, but I can’t see the FED saying “We believe there will be a dollar collapse, and therefore will stop QE.” I think QE will continue, until the FED can’t anymore…I would agree that the action of QE3 being impossible, despite an intention for it, is entirely possible.
In fact the intention of QE3 might be enough to get this C-wave going, and the repeal of it might be the catalyst for the D-Wave. Just throwing it out there…seems to fit your timelines.
So now the dollar rallies on poor employment numbers?
k proctor,
Take a peek at what those funds are invested in. A buddy of mine had the same problem, but when we looked into the holdings of the “international” fund option, it turned out they own a good percentage of miners in the portfolio. He’s glad he moved into it.
I’m just going to wait till tomorrow to add the rest of my gambling money.
NEW POST
Hagg, sounds like a good idea. We should be getting close. Remember what Alex said about 2 down days marking the bottom of his silver etf? He’s really not that bad. I have him pictured like Howard Woliwitz from the Big Bang Theory. You know how those guys are always budding for attention. HOOWWWAaaAaAaaarda!@?$#
Gary… where is the new post?
K, am I missing something, is NEW POST from Gary last nights or is there a new one?
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Not a new post. Look under Daily Cycle Counts links at right hand side of home page.
A break above 34.17 on SLV and I will daytrade some March 11 calls.