Don’t let the title fool you, for reasons I’ve outlined in this weekend’s report I think gold likely has one more move to new highs before the D-wave begins.
However the action in the dollar and silver this week have probably taken the parabolic phase of this C-wave off the table. Rather than the normal sharp spike up it appears that this C-wave is going to end with a more modest move than prior C-waves. That being said it did last much longer and gain just as much above the prior C-wave top as any other C-wave. So in terms of duration and magnitude this C-wave has fulfilled every expectation.
I’ve noted in the past that a D-wave is a regression to the mean, profit taking event. That regression tends to be most severe when the C-wave ends with a parabolic move. Action and reaction.
However this time it appears there will likely be no parabolic rally to top the C-wave. In that case the D-wave will probably be milder than prior D-waves. As a point of reference every D-wave so far has retraced at least 62% of the prior C-wave advance.
Without the parabolic stretch I think it’s likely that the impending D-wave will only retrace roughly 50% of this C-wave. If gold pushes up to a marginal new high slightly above $1600 (in the weekend report), then it will probably only drop to around $1250 which just happens to mark the upper boundary of last summers consolidation zone.
What should follow after that is a fairly strong A-wave surge. A-waves usually test the but don’t break to new highs. At that point gold will enter a long sideways period to consolidate the massive gains made during the this last C-wave. During this period it will get very tough to make money in the precious metals market.
However there is still some upside potential once gold puts in the daily cycle low that is trying to form now. Great potential during the D-wave if you know how to use puts and excellent upside potential during the A-wave next fall, before the metals sink into the consolidation doldrums.
This year still has great opportunities left and of course we still have the next C-wave to look forward to in 2013. That one should make this C-wave look puny in comparison.
Gary, I totally agree with this analysis, especially in the short term. Open interest for May silver and June gold are still very high. This is deep pocket investors holding.
My suspicion is prices will move up until gold stand for delivery day (end of May).
Pressure will start to subside for the summer.
Thanks for the guidance Gary.
There are 2 interesting long term charts I wanted to put up on silver. The first is a 10 year linear chart on silver and shows that we are at or near a major support trendline: http://screencast.com/t/C6DKkqs4
This 2nd chart shows silver on a log scale and showed that silver hit its head on the top of its 10 year channel and was a good indicator of a pullback coming. Wish I paid a little closer attention:
http://screencast.com/t/mCiisgFA
Beep
Gary, BLH,
You recommend mostly, only buying DITM options. Is it to help protect oneself from market drawdowns like last week?
S,
I don’t think I would put a lot of faith in lines on a chart. In order for them to work enough people have to trade off them.
Silver is a thin market and as such very volatile. Volatile markets aren’t good markets to trade off technicals.
Especially in your first chart. I really doubt a line on a chart is going to halt a parabolic collapse. Those almost always have to return to the point at with the parabolic move began before the selling abates.
Sibek,
Awesome trend lines there. I was messing around with similar lines but just could not get them drawn straight. I do see that this spike low in silver does look like it is in the support range. I do hope that this action is simply a “reset” button being pushed.
My biggest issue is that I am overly optimistic so I am looking for analysis to tell a story I want (bullish).
I think a bigger surprise to the market would be a silver launch higher and into the $60’s.
I hope JPM sees this as a short covering opportunity to get out and then go long – so we can get back to supply and demand fundamentals.
Gary,
On your point about the trend line I agree that it won’t “halt” the decline dead in it’s tracks.
But, it may indicate a range that we’ll trade around.
I,
There are times when in the money or even out of the money options are appropriate but for the vast majority of the time I’m just substituting options for shares.
As in, if I wanted to buy 100 shares of XYZ company I could accomplish the same thing with 1 call option.
In that case buying DITM means the option will move almost in lock step with the stock. (If XYZ gains $1 so will my call option) The upside is that the price of 1 call option is a fraction of the price of 100 shares so my return on invested capital is greatly magnified.
Gary,
You marked the beginning of this current c-wave as 2009 apr. Should it not be nov 08 that was the start of this wave?
HR,
I can tell you exactly what will halt the decline. Gold putting in it’s cycle low and rallying 🙂
Silver will follow although I think this time silver will show relative weakness compared to gold instead of strength.
RA,
The A-wave began in `08. The B-wave bottomed in April `09. The C-wave began when the B-wave bottomed.
BRAD: Thanks for posting that Sinclair post in the last thread. It’s always good to get his perspective.
Gary,
What are the negatives with buying inverse ETF’s like DZZ or ZSL during D wave?
Thanks
Happy Mothers Day to all the Mothers out there. Have an enjoyable day.
Gary, I know your analysis has a lot more experience behind it than my own but I do think there is something to be said for long term trend lines. I know a few investors that were paying attention to the upper boundary of the silver chart. I’m not saying it was going to stop a parabolic phase, but I do believe many technical guys may have jumped in once that trendline was broken… you can see how it goes parabolic at that point. Again not saying it was going to stop anything but more of a confirmation. Thats why It think on the way down it will serve as some pause and may bounce there initially.
S,
If gold decides to bottom here then yes silver will rally and it will look like the trend line halted the decline. But if gold continues lower silver is going to ignore that line and follow gold.
You might be better off drawing trendlines for gold.
BTW gold just tested the 38% retracement of this intermediate rally.
S,
Post away. I would never stop anyone from expressing their ideas, thoughts and questions especially ones that are contrary to my analysis. It’s always good to see the other side’s view.
G… sorry forgot to post both gold charts. Thanks for the feedback:
http://screencast.com/t/HzrfRnBn
http://screencast.com/t/usN9aJSe
Beep
jhnewman,
Ross Clark is on http://www.howestreet.com every week being interviewed with charts.
If I see any of Alf’s pieces I will let you know.
Gary,
Just read the weekend report. When did you get out of AGQ? Didn’t see any note to that effect in your premium updates.
You laid this out as an alternate strategy in a 5 May update, but don’t see anything to say that you were acting on this strategy.
Was it intraday Friday that you exited your positions? Even so, wouldn’t that prompt a “portfolio change” update to the premium section?
Too many posts in the blog to catch these kinds of things and just want to be sure I’m not missing them in the future as they happen.
Thanks
Gary,
Where do you usually invest your money after the A-wave is over? Do you put your money elsewhere or do you ride out the consolidation period until it reaches the next C-Wave?
Gary,
Once we have more solid confirmation that the 3 year dollar low is in, will not there be money to be made shorting equities (certain sectors)?
hth
I highly suggest everyone Read Jesse, and especially his last post.
He has strategic clarity.
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/
Gary,
With QE2 stretching cycles and altering so much is it possible the consolidation phase won’t be what’s expected too? Either shorter or longer then you would expect?
Also, how does this never before seen monetary policy affect you cycle analysis?
Jabalong,
Gary got out of AGQ on Thursday morning. I think it was in the alternative strategy somewhere.
Gary,
Another thought I had. Huge hedge funds got caught in the margin hikes and started to unwind margin and run for the doors because they needed liquidity. You mentioned in report how big money often likes to push prices above or below key support and then take the other side of the trade.
Do you think the possibility exists that this huge shakeout could be the perfect storm scenario for something like this? Having smashed silver sentiment and leaving the retail investor scarred from the sharp silver decline being the perfect set up?
I am watching silver for a bounce, and my trigger is a cross of the 10EMA over the 30 EMA on a 15 minute chart.
My long term daily 10/30 did not cross, but is squeezing, a price bounce off of that is very bullish, a break and well down we will go IMO, or at least I am not long.
The momentum indicators are way overstretched, so risk reward is on my side.
Here’s two year slv log scale:
http://screencast.com/t/0xODjGo9N6
On linear scale that trendline is at around 31.30….
I,
The downside is your risk is unlimited with inverse ETF’s.
With a put option I know exactly what my risk is if the trade goes against me.
J,
I posted the alternate strategy right before I got on the plane then decided I didn’t like the idea of being unable to watch what was happening as I was in the air so decided to opt for it myself.
I was frantically trying to get the trades off before they closed the doors and I missed my flight.
Niven,
If I can find something where I think I have an edge then I will buy or short it during that period. If not I will just go to cash in my portfolio and wait till I think the next C-wave is ready to move.
Patrick,
If I’m certain stocks are back in another cyclical bear then yes we can try shorting. I have to be completely convinced though before I go that route.
Props to Gary for his calls so far. He’s been bang on the money as far as I’m concerned.
Riding this PM bull with silver and leveraged ETF’s is a high risk strategy and all about position sizing and accepting that while there are high rewards for those that know how to trade them there is also the potential for huge loss if you don’t understand them. For those that have lost paper profit, that is unfortunate but you haven’t really lost anything. For those that came in late and are down on their capital, I feel for you as I’ve been there myself but you have have to understand that once you press the buy button on a trade you take ownership of that trade. If you enter near the top of a rally you should use a reduced position size so a loss won’t wipe you out. By all means take advisement from your mentors but do some research so you understand what you are doing and know what can go wrong.
I’ve posted before that it only took 3 minutes of reading one of the free SMT gold cycle reports before I was looking for the subscription link. The cycle tool is enough to give a trader a valuable edge to ride this PM Bull over the coming years. One of the things I look for when I buy shares in Junior Miners is that management has skin in the game (a decent number of shares in the company) so they have to take ownership of how they run the company. With SMT, Gary has skin in the game. I’ll be following his cycle work as long as he is generous enough to share it.
Looking forward to the action over the coming weeks.
Thanks Gary
I am never going to hit one of these 200 mph curve balls.
Gary,
Continuing from the posts last night about not getting out of silver in time. I have a few thoughts.
First, you have always been thoughtful and even often answering my personal emails. You have also by and large been very correct about events.
I take full responsibility for not selling, however, the responsibility I take was in listening to you. It is wrong to say most of the experienced traders did not get out in time. Many did in real time and I saw it in real time. So it is not true what you say that who could have seen it in real time. I saw Doc sell Sunday night (another rule I don’t understand is that you do not consider after-hours trading even though this is a 23.25 hour market and global in nature).
However, I cannot understand some of your rules. You say you always sell early. Yet you did NOT expect more than a “tag” of $50. why wasn’t the high 40s good enough? You always say not to get the last few percent yet you tried to get the last cent here as it appears.
Further, your reasoning to make the switch was to avoid a huge fall. Why play it so risky in that situation?
I simply cannot understand what was so magical about the $50 number. I personall gave up months of profits. And that means alot in terms of money and time as I was at this full-time.
I spoke to more than a few friends who follow your service and ALL of us were completely baffled the week BEFORE the massacre why you were not selling or at least scaling out. We assumed you knew something we didn’t. We were wrong and some of those people are in big losses as they bought AGQ much later in the game.
I don’t know. I looked for your advice that first day and I think you were traveling (either Mon or Tues).
Really most (if not all) of the experienced traders on Mon/Tue/Wed saw what was going on. And then the sell comes on Thurs, almost $200 points down.
I have so much more to say but I do think you tried to do the best for your subscribers. It’s just this time I think you were really playing a game of chicken with $50 when nobody would have cared about even $45, especially if you were going to switch to a gold-related vehicle.
My self-examination is that I have to understand why I didn’t listen to my gut instincts, logical review of the situation, other experienced traders, etc.
Rules are a good thing. But here it simply seems you adhered to some and ignored others (selling early when you didn’t expect much past $50 anyway). Perhaps you could consider the possibility of looking at why this happened. Nobody would believe me if I said how much I lost this week but that is not the real issue. The real issue is that everyone was counting on you getting us out in time and you were playing a very risky game imo.
But again I take responsibility for not hitting the sell button. But I think you are simply overlooking many facts (and there are more but these are enough for now) in your error.
I do have tremendous respect for you and your analysis had done very well up until now and thank you for your service. You are one of the best ones out there (maybe the best) but for the life of me I cannot understand why you played it so risky with the biggest trade of almost all of our lives?!
New York,
QE is stretching virtually all cycles. That’s how it’s affecting them.
I don’t think QE is going to alter the consolidation phase. That is more a product of human emotion similar to regression to the mean.
These really large C-wave advances require a long consolidation period before they can take the next step up.
It’s like running up a really steep mountain. The higher and faster you run the longer you have to rest and catch your breath before the next sprint.
No kidding……this was the scripture lesson at church this morning:
1 Peter 1:17-19 (New International Version)
17 Since you call on a Father who judges each person’s work impartially, live out your time as foreigners here in reverent fear. 18 For you know that it was not with perishable things such as silver or gold that you were redeemed from the empty way of life handed down to you from your ancestors, 19 but with the precious blood of Christ, a lamb without blemish or defect.
Gary,
Will there be a alternative strategy for people who dont use options to play the DWave?
Many thanks
Steven,
Ok let me try this again. Monday morning I was ready to sell. I told everyone in the weekend report that we would sell Monday. At that point I thought silver had gotten close enough. So I didn’t miss that call, I got it right on the money.
But the market gapped down $3 Monday morning. My mistake was in not being able to see that silver was getting ready to crash 30% in 5 days. If there was some way to know that in real time don’t you think I would have gone ahead and sold into the big gap?
Did anyone anywhere predict a 30% drop in 5 days? No of course not. That is something like a 4 or 5 standard deviation event and not predictable.
Historical precedent from every other C-wave for the last 11 years said that this wasn’t the top and that the correction in silver should be mild. If that was the case then getting caught in the daily cycle correction should be no big deal. We would just ride it out like we rode out every other daily cycle correction and then be ready for the next leg up.
Only this time historical precedent failed and something completely different happened that had never happened before.
Again you are trying to rationalize something with the benefit of hindsight that couldn’t be done in real time.
I guarantee if we had gotten out and silver had rallied to $60 or $70 dollars you would be just as upset, probably more so.
So enough with this Monday morning quarterbacking it’s starting to get ridiculous.
The ball is all over the place…the hitter doesn’t know where it’s going.
Also, another reason why knuckleballers are of limited effectiveness: it’s difficult to throw a strike on command, which can be a problem when you’re behind in the count and you have to throw your 80 mph fastball for a strike.
Steven,
If you were seeing other traders get out why didn’t you follow their lead? If you were talking to people a week before about getting out why not then? On Friday, I wanted to get out as I was seeing a lot of things that I didn’t like but Gary was still in so I was still following the plan. Well, the lesson I learned here is that I can make my own decisions (duh) and follow my own calls. I absolutely have to do this if I want any longevity in this game. If I had sold on Friday and then silver had a short, scary pullback Monday I would have thought I was a genius but then when silver goes ballistic Tuesday and runs to 60 I would have been very disappointed. Sure I would have made fine money but then I would have questioned why I didn’t just stick to the plan. Either way you have to own up and you know that but you also have to let it go and move on because you are doing longer term damage. Move on and get back to making money.
Steven
If you and your friends thought $45 silver was good enough why didn’t you sell?
Hindsight is 20/20 is what the new boss told us when we heard him admit that the guys working on the equipment had a lot of problems. Get over it is his point. There are always a lot of problems.
The hindsight bias is defined as a tendency to change an opinion from an original thought to something different because of newly provided information.
Silverhound: very well put about Gary and this site. I too was OVERJOYED to stumble across his cycle work for gold/silver. That knowledge gives a trader an INCREDIBLE edge, and it was the missing link to my crafting a devastatingly-effective swing trading strategy for gold/silver/miners.
*****I too want to thank Gary for sharing his insights.*****
One OTM idea that offers nearly 3 to 1 return is to buy the June 40 and sell twice as many June 45’s.
Close the position between $40-$41, set a stop on the trade at break even once it gets there.
jh
There aren’t many guarantee’s in life but sometimes you have those aHAH moments when you stumble across something good 😉
Silverhound: agreed. I almost did backflips when I ran across Gary’s gold/silver cycle analysis — and I would’ve done ’em — if only I knew how to do backflips!!! ;^)
Are you an Aussie?
Gary,
I’ve been thinking that maybe all of the dollar cycles since QE2 started in November have been extended and lasting closer to 30-35 day range. If this is the case, then every time we broke a cycle low (indicated by black arrows), we have rallied to test that breakdown and fallen. In this case, that means testing the 75.5 level on the $USD. This counter-trend rally in the dollar can last up to ten days-ish as evidenced in February. My reversal swing projections give me a cluster of reversal dates that give me an area to expect a trend reversal. We will probably expect to see the ROC in the dollar rally slow as we get closer to these swing reversal dates, where we will watch for a swing high.
As you see in the metals & miners charts, the damage doesn’t look quite as severe given the extended count.
On the bottom chart, I have 10 year yields. It looks like its consolidation will be ending next Monday, May 16th if my reversal swing date is correct. The Andrew’s Pitchfork tool coupled with the reaction line gives us a price projection of 3.031% which is almost the exact same size as the first lurch lower in yields. I would expect yields to begin putting in a failed lower low and we will likely see them to begin their next move higher. That makes perfect sense given the lack of QE2 to keep rates artificially low. Plus, the big boys like Bill Miller and Dan Fuss expect rates to be moving higher and have allocated their portfolios as such. That’s big money that will not be buying Treasury bonds. I think this decline in interest rates is merely due to Treasuries putting in their annual cycle low which comes in the first quarter or early 2nd quarter. I think that this will be a left translated cycle and indicative of a big shift in the bond market. (Yields will have to move thru the February high to get a left translated cycle in Treasury prices) With yields moving higher, that will weigh on stocks – which will most likely be attributed to summer doldrums by the financial media.
They can try to fool us into believing that inflation pressures “transitory” by collapsing commodity prices by raising margin limits & spooking investors, but the story has not changed. Commodity markets will recover from this because the longer term story is still in tact as the markets continue humming along. Gold may not be the “best” investment in this scenario, but it will probably keep pace with a rising commodity index.
If I’m incorrect and the global economy cannot sustain its growth, we will have another deflationary scenario on our hands. In this case, precious metals will outperform other commodities.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Nk0WTwHVrjE/TcbAPbFIUBI/AAAAAAAAAVk/2-wyc03TIwg/s1600/2011-05-08%2BDollar%2BGold%2BYields.png
Gary
You have used the term “close enough” many times in your reports. On April 25th with AGQ up +20 at the open and DG making a comment he sold some of his AGQ position, for me that was “close enough” and I sold it all. That big red candle (17% drop) you had on your and Doc’s report scared me to death.
On the flip side, I got some miners I have to unwind. But hopefully I can do that on the bounce. I will be watching Gary and DG for clues. Oh forgot Poly..
All `
Don’t get down on Gary. He is human. I imagine he has lost sleep over this like many others. I’ve been following him since the summer and he is great. So as Gary says “Clear your head dust yourself off and let’s make some money”.
Gary,
I have not been posting much on this subject so it’s not fair to say enough of this Monday morning quarterbacking. The point is that you did NOT expect silver to go to $60 ot $70 and even if it did we would have sold everything at $50.
You always said you thought this C wave would “TAG” $50, not go beyond it. So you in essence were trying to grab every last cent in a way especially if you said you were selling everything at $50 so the argument that $60 or $70 would make eveyrone happy is not correct as we would have been out.
You know the size of my account and the losses were beyond belief enough for my grandchildren to be taken care of…again, my mistake but rationalizing it from your vantage point is not helpful for any of us to learn from.
Yes, it is spilled milk. And my dismay is of course losing the money but really it’s the way it happened. If $50 was the ULTIMATE target (as you always said this C wave would tag $50, not go beyond it) what were we waiting for??
In any event I still do thank you for everything else you have done for us.
One thing I misunderstood is that you said if silver had gone to $60 or $70 I would have been upset. I truly know I would not have been and we would have captured much of those gains through the gold plays. I’m over and out on the subject but extremely burned.
Steven,
You are obviously still in the denial phase. I think your best bet is to transition to acceptance at this time so your emotions don’t interfere with your ability to make money moving forward.
If Doc made the call, and all the experienced traders you saw realized what was happening in real time why didn’t you sell?
You think Gary wanted to take the hit on AGQ by selling Thursday as opposed to Monday for sh!ts and giggles?
jh
Yes mate, Aussie here. In North Queensland.
New York,
You are correct. I very clearly said it was my responsibility for not hitting the sell button. I just didn’t understand in real time what the difference was between $48 and $50. But Gary had not let me down before so I just waited for the call. Again, enough but I needed to say this much.
Silverhound: I’ve never been there, but I know it’s a beautiful country.
Watch out for those salt-water crocodiles!!!! :^)
Gotta run. The big Mother’s Day Celebration is about to kick off here. Ciao!
Steven,
I think Gary is a great trader but he’s human.
In the past he had often been early in his trades, and that had cost money. I think this time that was in the back of his head. I also think there was a false sense of security about silver passing $50. Success breeds overconfidence and that’s what happened here. Gary has icewater in his veins but even he is susceptible to human emotions, particularly when “coaching” a “team” of 2500 subscribers.
What I have observed is that cycle theory is a great tool for seeing the big picture, but that there’s a lot of “play” in terms of short-term timing. Things like daily cycle corrections can be off by a few days and be apparent only in retrospect.
Gary has a lot of faith in his cycle tools, and that may also be a cognitive bias. He was “expecting” a daily cycle correction, so that led him to underestimate the magnitude of the drop when it came.
More than anything, we (you and me, Steven) have misunderstood the nature of the service Gary provides. Gary is a point of view, he is not a prophet. He is wrong sometimes just like all the other great traders.
What Steven is failing to mention is that he took, if I remember right, a modest 2-4 million dollar account to apparently 63 million and then lost it back to 14 million.
So all in all he’s still up at least a couple hundred percent. I find it really hard to feel sorry for someone that’s up a couple hundred percent.
Steven the problem isn’t that we missed a call. The problem is that you were massively leveraged. That leverage felt wonderful on the way up but hurt like hell on the way down.
It’s not the croc’s that get you, it’s the damn mosquitoes!
Enjoy 🙂
Steven
If we hit $50 on silver and you sold, and say silver hit $70, believe me you would be upset. AGQ would be > $570. You would be boo hooing about all the money you left on the table.
OK, Gary. Now you have crossed the line from when you were alway a gentlemen and someone I could count on for privacy. I sent you a private email that you chose to publicly put out there. And you did it before you got my next email. Very wrong what you just did and very misleading if/when you get my next email. I never in a million years thought you would take a private email and post it for the public, let alone in a completely misleading way.
I agree I had leverage but I just think some of your own rules were violated BUT AGAIN I TAKE RESPONSIBILTY FOR MY ACTIONS SO PEOPLE PLEASE STOP TELLING ME IT WASN’T GARY’S FAULT I LOST THE MONEY.
Enough of the topic…Happy Mothers Day to all mothers.
and we still have the A wave coming up shortly……and the next C wave, then the next A wave, then the next C wave……..lots of opportunity there
Steven,
I hear you. I got burned too. My account was up 100% in two short months – killing it. All of which I NEVER would have been able to achieve without Gary. The mistake many of us made was thinking he was bullet proof and so many overlooked their own instincts and comfort levels opting to follow blindly. Gary has said many times his risk tolerance is such that he could lose 50% of his account and not skip a beat.
I actually got nervous with all the Euphoria about $50 silver and sold 75% of my AGQ in 1/4 lots at 290, 300 and 340. Then I let greed take over and bought back higher. Yea it burns but I’ve lived to see another day and the best thing I can do for my account balance now is to accept, learn and move forward.
Best of luck.
Steven,
To be fair, I also remember that you had a lot of inside information about the silver market from a big buyer, and that led you to be extremely confident as well. Perhaps overconfident.
This is a classic example of confirmation bias — you selected “sources” that confirmed your own position.
All in all, $14 mil is not bad. You got out in pretty good shape compared to a lot of other players.
Don’t make the mistake of mentally “booking” that $63 million, or I guarantee you will lose everything. That money never existed. I am down big $$$ as well (nowhere near as much on a percentage or absolute basis), but I’m not thinking about where I was a week ago. I’m thinking about where I am now.
gay could you answer my question please when you get a minute
Steven,
You publicly told everyone on the blog several months ago that you had taken a 2-4 million account to, I think it was 16 million at the time.
So I didn’t revel anything you hadn’t already said except that you had now made it to 63 instead of 16.
clark,
I’ve said this before that I really don’t recommend playing the D-wave other than in put options.
In your case you should probably just sit still for a couple of months.
I think the real issue was everyone being over leveraged.
AGQ is designed to burn you if it tanks, get that into your head, it’s a double leveraged ETF.
The fact that Gary had it so close, by making the call that once at 50 he is out, shows that this was one massive whipsaw to remember!
I think that everyone should think of these ETF’s that they’re like options, that will put it in perspective.
Yes, that is what I am talking about. Obviously if I wanted everyone to know my finances I would have posted that on the blog and not sent you a private email. But, again, spilled milk. I just didn’t think you would have done that but you have always been a gentlemen so I’ll assume this was a one time thing and let it go.
signing off for now.
Still long 25% GDXJ, 16% QID, 10% DUG, 8% GLDX. Short 7% SLV. Cash 34%
from John Hathaway who probably knows more about the gold/silver markets than everyone here combined
“When asked about silver specifically Hathaway had this to say, “My instinct is that this was too quick for this to be final. It’s like a haymaker (in silver) and it knocked everyone for a loop. Could it go to $30, could it go to $28? Yeah I suppose so, it could, but it wouldn’t bother me.
The long-term fundamentals for silver are no different at $35 than they were at $45 and what they were at $15. It’s a hard idea to get across, but I think people get too wrapped up in current price action.”
When asked about gold Hathaway remarked, “Well gold has hardly corrected. I thought silver by comparison was very spikey and for it to go to $60, it couldn’t have done it from $45 without doing this first. This is just a correction for gold that may not be over, it may take more doubters. It’s a shakeout, we had this huge run and a lot of investors and traders probably got in too late if they were short-term in their thinking, but that is not the big picture.
The precious metals markets may just chop around for a bit. After that, gold and silver should set new highs. I think people will be amazed at what gold does. Once it (gold) had the last breakout, it did tack on close to $200 in no time flat, I think it will do the same thing again on the next breakout.
You’ll see an advance that nobody gets, nobody anticipates, and it all comes down to the fact that there is a lot of money to go into a very small space. Somebody likened it to trying to put the Hoover Dam through a garden hose. If money wants to move into gold just stand back because who knows how high the price will go
Steven,
It’s an anonymous blog. The only thing anybody “knows” is that somewhere in the world there’s a guy named Steven with x dollars.
I don’t get the sensitivity about money here. Many people got offended when Cory revealed he had $20 million. Who cares?
I think we all realize we F*** up. My F*** up was in going SLW for the RUN instead of AGQ … others sold too early and bought back in, others sold too late.
Lessons learned .. lets just make sure now we capitalize on the bounce and miss this upcoming D Wave. I would personally like to get my account up into the 7 digits by 2013.
We should all be a little more sensitive to Steven. Can anyone comprehend losing $50 million dollars? Even if it was paper profit, it wasn’t Monopoly money.
Steven, if its any consolation, you can still buy and sell me. 🙂
Gary,
I don’t like your new portfolio post. I want to participate in the d-wave with out of the money call options. I don’t want to sit around. I’m sure most people don’t too. This new portfolio will hobble the service. Please reconsider
Nobody is giving Steven a hard time.
Trading is a tough game. You have to learn to roll with the punches and move on or you’ll miss the next opportunity. And not count your chickens before they hatch. Thats rule 1 in every trading book.
A lot of people only dream about being able to realise 7 x gain, whatever the $$$$ amount.
Eamonn,
You can probably just play the dollar using UUP, or whatever equivalent they have in the UK.
It won’t double your money, but it’s not a bad idea to play it relatively safe right now.
Gary, I think you are doing a fantastic work for us.I follow you since August and I’m up 50%. Never did before.
Can you please keep posting option trades on the premium site? I wouldn never be able to ride a D wave without options.
And please, can you keep the old “single portfolio” with the new “family man” portfolio? I’m single.
Thank you and sorry for my English.
gary, I agree with Eamonn … we depend on you, especially now, to at least guide us into suitable stocks/options to maximize our returns, but, in the end we are responsible for ourselves. I for instance, was concerned about the ultra ETFs and mostly stayed away from AGQ … personal choice. I also stayed away from options, as I realize they are to be used sparingly. Having said that I would like to use them , especially when a DWave comes to gain back some of these recent losses, and I am hoping to have some guidance from you, from which I can then pick a time/entry level which better suits my needs.
thanks gary, if you do think of another play for amateurs then that would be appreciated
I feel just as bad for someone losing $50,000 on a $63,000 account. Probably worse. $50,000 can help send a kid to college. $50 million is enough to screw your kids up for life.
Besides, if he plays it safe and smart, he will make that money up in fairly short order.
Thanks David for your idea on UUP. I still don’t like the portfolio being hobbled. It seems lame now.
Btw, I’m in the Republic of Ireland, not UK (touchy subject that, here). After Greece blows up, we will be next.
I wonder if the US economy will be able to walk on its own legs when QE2 ends? I sense a massive debt day of reckoning coming for Europe and the USA.
Steven .. it sucks to lose that kind of cash. I am sure you will make it back shortly. On the other hand. if you do have some type of confirmation, we would appreciate you sharing some of that info with us …
I agree with Eamonn that Gary should not change his posting of his personal proposed positions, even if it involves a lot of leverage or options.
There may be some subscribers who don’t understand how options work, or understand how leverage is a double edged sword, but there are also plenty of us here who do in fact have extensive experience with both and are completely comfortable assuming the risks contained therein. We’re big boys, we can take it. And if someone can’t, or didn’t understand the risks going in, then they didn’t do their own due diligence and is their own fault.
If anything Gary, you should post two portfolio choices–one for experienced investors and traders that includes any choices you are making personally, and a “model” portfolio for those who are inexperienced with options and leveraged funds.
Folks, If you know what you are doing then you will know what options to buy when and if I think the D-wave has begun. You don’t need me to tell you that. If you do need me to tell you that then you have no business buying options.
From now on people are going to be forced to make realistic decisions about their true risk tolerance.
Yes, a “Family Man”, risk adverse portfolio, and a “Single Man With No Obligations” portfolio. What what I can see, its easy to get a “Family Man” type investment anywhere. There are loads of conservative funds out there. I want something well thought out, but with some cojones, to make some real money
I think what has happened here is that everyone had gotten used to Gary always being write and dismissing the fact that even the best investors cannot predict the market’s next move.
Instead of thanking Gary for all the hard work, a few have been complainers.
It is such a shame that these complainers have the ability to change the format of this blog and potentially the way in which Gary discloses HIS transactions and HIS thoughts.
I for one am grateful for all your hard work and thoughts Gary and am very saddened if you choose to change your structure and postings on the Pay Site.
MD, my sentiment exactly. This will just destroy the service. If theres money to be made in out of the money puts on gold/silver in the d-wave, I wanna know about it
Md
Well said.
MD
Exactly. Even Jim Rogers was buying $USD a couple of months back. During the rally that the smart money was selling into.
Not sure too many here can say Jim doesn’t know what he’s doing, he’s the master of Old Turkey.
I REALLY am not trying to restart this discussion. I just had a post that I realized never actually posted and I’m just posting it now but it was from over an hour ago.
I guess maybe the bigger point was holding on after such big down days mon, tues, etc.…at least that was my mistake.
I agree with MD, Eamonn, and others concerning change of format. It really is too bad that someone harvesting 200% is whining and maybe even causing Gary to alter a beautiful format (revealing his trades while suggesting alternatives).
I feel sorry for you Steven with your paltry earnings. I’m ONLY up 33% this year.
I was looking forward to option ideas, from you Gary, for the D wave. Oh well.
Gary,
Please continue to post investing ideas as that is what attracted me to your sites. I am new to options, but used your opinions and others who comment here to make some good trades. I am learning options within my risk tolerance, and I love to hear discussions on what strike, expiration and why. Maybe you need a premium, premium service for those not adverse to risk. No risk….no gains.
Sure would be nice if gold continued to climb past 1550$ and over 1600$!
In thin trading Saturday in India, gold closed at 1506$ and silver at 36.95$. Does this mean anything? I don’t know, we saw what happened the last time!
Well I will say it Steven. Gary probably tossed that tidbit to get you to STFU.
To have those kind of gains and think you somehow deserved more is unfathomable. Then to come on here and blame Gary for you not cashing in your chips is beyond belief.
My own father called me Thursday last and said he thought we had gone far enough. He cashed in that Friday and kept his gains. You had friends in high places telling you to get out also, and chose not to.
In my book, everything happens for a reason. Usually it takes a good while to deduce that reason, but it always comes to pass that we find it out.
You should ask for your 200 back and leave. Playing this blame Gary game has gone past any semblance of reason. Just my 2 cents worth.
Gary,
I’d like to second the previous suggestion about a two-tiered model portfolio, with one being for most investors and the other being a riskier portfolio including options. I’ve been planning for some time now to ride the D-wave with some combination of put options (and I’m sure I’m not the only one). While I’m an experienced options trader I still respect your opinion and was looking forward to seeing how you were planning on using options for this next wave.
I feel like some of us have been acting like – for lack of a better analogy – a bunch of drunken teenagers. Our cool Uncle Gary has been letting us try his beer and teaching us how to drink properly but some of us got completely hammered and wrapped their cars around a lamppost. Well, now Gary’s taking away the beer because you obviously can’t be trusted to act responsibly. So here’s some apple juice, instead. Feels kind of demeaning.
Eamonn,
I sense some revenge trading going on here.
One of the points I have heard many times froom the greats is that when things are not going your way or when the trend is unclear, you need to trade smaller.
This is not a good time to learn options, particularly on silver, which could easily reverse and go to $70.
UUP should net you about 20%. The a-wave should net you 100%. That’s 140% in six months with no leverage.
Here’s what I will do. I will publish several portfolios including extremely aggressive ones. The only portfolio I will post in the normal SMT newsletter is the model portfolio.
In order to receive the other portfolio and aggressive strategies one will have to buy a separate subscription. That subscription will be emailed to those subscribers only and I can tell you right now it’s going to be expensive.
If you can’t afford the subscription then you have no business even contemplating aggressive strategies that involve heavy risk.
If you want the subscription you are going to have to email me and ask for it.
I really hope that no one decides to go this route. As I’ve said many times in the past heavy leverage always ends in a blown out account.
I found this to be a pretty sensible outlook on silver by Clive Maund. Some good analysis.
http://news.silverseek.com/CliveMaund/1304872923.php
As per some ideas on D-waves in puts.
D-wave….what about a layered approach to buying puts, instead of them all at the same strike.
One note I will say on options is that it really depends on the premium at that time. If the premium is too high you are forced to go deeper into the money to avoid it…and if you are so deep in the money you might as well go short at a certain point.
My experience with options is rather mixed…I may buy some puts, but only if they are cheap…I will stay in cash if there isn’t an easy trade to gain from…SLV for example has puts that are way too expensive. No intentions at all to go short into this market..So either I get a good deal or no deal.
This would be a token position as well…My real move, get back to full unhedged positions at the beginning of the C-wave, and hold my positions until the next parabolic move. Normally, just to show how we can adapt Gary’s work in our own, I would buy and hold after the D-wave…however since an A and B follows, I will most likely adapt a full Turkey position only after the B completes. Ie stop watching pops and drops…Hopefully at this point, since I hope people are out of silver, silver tanks back to 10(dreaming), but that would be an easy value trade.
Going forward I plan, but not certain yet, on taking off my put protection on gold…I don’t see the demise in gold happening yet…however, my gut may tell me otherwise…at which point I will just keep it on. If I see a gap down tomorrow, I will most likely take them off into the gap. Especially if the gap is fairly large. Double etfs, options, etc won’t be in play. Miners as well I won’t touch…again since Gary’s work is so valuable, I know a D-wave is on the rise, and I don’t want to get too risky. So a pure gold play for me. Until I get that eery feeling again, and then it goes back on for the duration of the D.
I mentioned in the previous thread that a move like this would probably come to pass. Gary has to look out for his own portfolio too. When he has to deal with the ration of BS he has taken this week, it can be very distracting.
Personally I want my coach focused on the big picture. I can surely figure out how to allocate my money.
For those wanting option exposure, there are many good posters here to learn from. Write the names down when you see them. Bob, Wing, Wes, Poly, to name a few. Educate yourselves, and enter the game as you choose.
As the coach gets busier, the available time for hand holding will go down dramatically. We all have to stand tall.
Wow. What a difference a week makes!
This is the nature of the beast. Making money brings euphoria and good will to all men, losing money the opposite. Please control your short term emotions folks and grow up a bit. I’m not even a sophisticated trader, and I recall many times Gary giving excellent advise with his portfolio stating what trades to make depending on your risk/age/objective tolerance. If you can’t stand the heat..
Gary – That being said..I am disappointed with the change in portfolio strategy. The strongest, and I believe most truthful, fact I can say is that these people will lose their money with or without your portfolio methodology change. Even if you were making large returns per month, they will always find a way to be greedy and lose. The world is filled with these people, and there is nothing you can do to prevent them imploding themselves.
Keep giving your advice, caveats, and don’t lose sleep over those who do not read the warning label.
David, maybe you are right about revenge trading – I don’t know. I am too inexperienced yet to recognise that within myself.
But, it seems to me, 5-10% on options is fair if the odds are stacked in your favour that a d-wave is coming and that prices will fall heavily. I don’t see any heavy risk or gamble in that compared to other trades.
I want to step back from further trading until I see what is going on. By that I mean, is this dollar rally a massive head fake and a the predicted event occurring with the gold daily cycle low? Or is it in fact the 3 year cycle low?
I don’t think I will step back in until I know what is going on in the dollar. If the dollar 3 year low is in, I will go long the dollar and short gold. If the dollar low is not in, I will go long gold
Gary, I am a recent subscriber and I hope you will not change the way you present your portfolio to us. I don’t know how many subscribers you have but I’ll bet 95% realize the risks in this game and just roll with the ups and downs as they come. If someone thinks they can do better running their own money then just cancel your subscription and move on. The squeaking wheels shouldn’t get the grease in this case to the others detriment.
Like you, I am one of those who can lose 50% of my net worth and it wouldn’t make a bit of difference. In fact I have lost 50% of my net worth in this game in the past and it didn’t make one bit of difference.
Everyone giving me a hard time can seriously take a hike. I did nothing more than many other people did on this board over the past week. All I said was that I questioned some of Gary’s tactics and rules. I also incessantly said that I take full responsibility for my own actions and THANKED GARY A MILLION TIMES FOR HIS BOARD. So don’t blame me for anything. He is not making this change because of me. Maybe I’m just the last person who made a comment that finally broke the damn but you don’t change an entire business model just because one person has a difference of opinion. So are you saying I have no right to question Gary? And if Someone questions Gary then they are the bad guy. I know of many respected people on this board that have questioned him many times (TZ & DG come to mind but many others as well). Change the format or don’t that’s up to Gary. I have tremendous respect for him but I did and continue to question his actions and I’m entitled to my opinion.
So quit the mob mentality. And like I said you have no idea what my financial situation really is as Gary did not give you the entire picture which makes it completely different. I ask that he does not do it and I’ve ended this subject.
I never thought of Gary as someone who could not be questioned. Now he makes a change and the mob is after me with pitchforks!?!?!?!?!?!
Here, I’ll make everyone very happy. I will do my best not to post here anymore unless it is to a specific member or absolutely necessary imo. But I’ll refrain from being an active participant since this is obviously not a free speech environment.
Here’s another sub that will be disappointed if Gary changes his approach to presenting his portfolio. I’d hate for the site to change because a handful of posters refuse to be responsible for their own money.
ALEX IN MONTANA:
Thanks very much.
Gary,
People are obviously not following the model portfolio already. From what I’ve seen nobody is. Some people are using massive leverage. Others are not not following your timing. So what’s the point of three more portfolios no one follows?
I don’t like the sound of that Steven. We must work through this all together.
David, good point. I almost said in my above post that I didn’t follow Gary’s portfolio, but I liked seeing and thinking about his approach.
Does anyone think that Hong Kong’s gold futures starting in 9 days will stabilize wild overnight swings as well as compete with COMEX?
Gary,
As per the model portfolio…I am in the indifferent category…Whatever is best. 🙂
Aright really time for that beer.
Steven
You said Doc and other traders on here exited silver near the top. You failed to mention that they had also exited earlier in the rally thinking the daily cycle top was in and got it wrong.
If you only lost a paper profit it was just a number on a screen, you haven’t lost anything. Step over the dead horse and move on to the next trade.
akalaunch,
What else can I do. The mob is after me because I questioned Gary. I clearly said he is the best I have come across and all I did was question him. And now everyone is doubly pissed becuase it looks like Gary changed his entire business model because of ME! Anyway, I’m a good person and I believe Gary is as well. And I wish well to all.
Steven,
The portfolio change had nothing to do with you.
It just became very apparent this week that a great many subs did not take me serious when I said everyone has to decide what level of risk they are willing to take. Many were just mimicking me even though my risk tolerance was much greater than theirs.
Those people are now going to have to make real decisions about the amount of risk they are willing to accept.
Steven … I think you are overdoing the mob mentality. Many people here feel bad that you lost such a large sum of money. Trust me, if I went from $4M to $63M and back down to 14M$ I wouldnt be happy either. Nonetheless, sh*t happens, this is the stock market, and yea, in Gary’s defense this thing went down pretty quick. I expected a bounce at Silver 43$ and dipped my toes in AGQ for a tidy 33% loss in 2 days. I think as a board we need to get over this and move on.
Gary … like someone else mentioned, you could post 15 model portfolio’s and some people will find ways to lose money in the bull. I will ask you to look at the big picture as well .. you got a lot of folks here who accept the risks and invest within their means and who have done very well over the past few years ( I am one of them ) Lets not lose focus of that.
Cheers
Steven,
I hope you don’t think my comments are “after you”.
I certainly don’t think questioning Gary is off-limits. I have certainly questioned him (respectfully). But the simple fact is that he made a mistake. All traders do it, even the best ones. The important thing is to acknowlege it(which he’s done), learn from it, and move on.
David,
Agreed 100%. It just seemed that this one was a bit glossed over and I had some thoughts to put out there. I wasn’t blaming Gary. I was just giving my personal thoughts.
Steven
Over a year ago, I postulated that the nature of the PM bull had changed after the 2008 liquidation event. Rather than seeing parabolic moves separated by huge consolidation periods, the market switched to a strong trending mode. This change in character explains why the ABCD methodology doesn’t fit anymore (and I suggested as much back then).
What we should expect, therefore, are successive intermediate cycles… much like the last four… which unfold as trending moves followed by mild declines into intermediate lows. The exceptions will come when gold needs to take a breather in order to allow moving averages to catch up. In these cases, we are likely to see an intermediate cycle complete a triangle consolidation. The weekly action in 2009 provides an example.
That said, I highly doubt price will retreat to $1250. Unless gold is ready to enter its 8-year cycle decline, intermediate lows should not be violated. Therefore, whether or not gold treats us to another rally during this cycle, the coming intermediate decline should be rather mild and hold above the $1310 pivot.
Since commodities in general are due for a decline into a 2.5/3-year cycle low, I suspect the following intermediate cycle will then complete a triangle consolidation into early next year. Gold will then launch out of the consolidation as commodities come out of their own major low.
Miners look oversold. Remeber they had a head start on the decline. Hope to get a nice bounce next week.
My two cents…on future portfolio info. I don’t think gary should have to provide 2 or 3 different portfolio’s. Or he can charge for them. But a better suggestion might be to use the resources of this blog. There are enough experienced investors/traders to help “build” a portfolio for the conservative long term investor to the more experienced more risk taking trader. This way, if things go wrong, everyone owns up to their trade/investment and we don’t crap on one guy.
Gary..noticed the blees on silver is back above 80. Not necessarily guarantee’s higher, but is a good sign that we are bottom or close to it. I also noticed Silver open interest was still significantly off its all time highs at this recent peak. I know you have commented that the COT is not good for tops but do you see anything relevant in terms of short term bottom?
Stephen,
I would say everyone is pissed. There may be a couple posters who are expressing irrational thoughts and blame. Ignore them. You have every right o question anyone on this board. Gary has set the groundrules and your behavior is well within them.
f
Why I’m choosing option 1 from the weekend report Gary laid out.
I think this period in front of us is frought with more uncertainty than usual, thus I want the market to proove to me that we are not yet in a D-Wave. I am taking the most conservative of courses becuase it will offer me a clear stop, and the market will have to show some initial strength for me to reset for a postentila C-Wave finale.
Anyway, this has been my decided course of action throughout this correction, and thus far the market hasn’t given me a signal to buy as no swing reversal has occurred.
I’m assuming those who subsrcibe will be able to understand this post.
f
Like the miners and metals, we are diverging from the task at hand.
Quit bitching, quit bitching at eachother and let’s make some money.
Nat,
I do think we are close to a bottom but more because the daily cycle low is due than because of the COT.
Doc,
You may very well be right although I’m not convinced gold can continue to just keep chugging higher without a third round of QE. And I don’t think that’s politically feasible until we get at least another mini crisis.
Either way a rally as massive as what we’ve seen over the last two years is going to need to either correct (D-wave) or enter a very extended sideways consolidation to digest those kind of gains.
The gap down on Monday was, indeed, difficult to follow. I was contemplated buying puts on silver or even shorting to hedge my gold longs, but could not chase the move lower. As Gary said, no one could have predicted a 30% liquidation over 4 days.
I think everyone should remember that Gary is posting his opinions, but no one should just take his thoughts and action for granted. We all had access to the same info, and anyone could have sold on his or her own.
Steven,
You have a right to share feelings as so many others do here. I read everyone’s posts and some I agree and some I don’t. Same way with trading decisions.
It’s not fun to express something and next thing you are being attacked. And I agree, it does become mob mentality at times even with just a few.
Don’t let the blog Nazis determine what you feel you can and can’t do or say here. Keep on posting, we all learn from everyone here whether they admit it or not.
Thank you Fusby. Means alot. And thank you Gary for making it clear the change in the portfolio struture was not due to my posts.
Are you ready for the last tech boom? Are you ready for the green energy revolution? This tech boom should last thru 2016-2018, taking the Dow to 36,000…after which, all hell breaks loose and the bears win.
Steven: I am just catching up on the blog after a long break (I don’t check much on weekends). just for the record, I generally support what you have written and find little that is objectionable in it. There are two possible reasons for going over the past: To complain, vent, or Monday-morning quarterback, or to learn something. The first is useless, the latter MANDATORY if you want to get better, at trading, any other skill, or at life. I plan to post Monday as I want more people to see it, but Steven, while I felt disappointment in your posts and a touch of complaining, they did not seem at all grossly out of line to me. I have spent the entire weekend reviewing what went wrong for me. The claim that one can never do better in real-time that what one did in the recent past is simply and obviously absurd on its face. That would mean improvement is forever impossible. More Monday…
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Gary,
will I ever make back the money I lost in AGQ during this unreal drop in 5 days?
How long do you think it will take foor silver to go back up to 50?
fubsy_cooter, RE your post on selection Option 1 from the Premium site. I have the same feelings. I want to see clearly what is happening before I commit. The dollar could just as easily strengthen and gold rally quickly fizzle out. As Doc says “Its ok to miss a trade”, and I will be watching very carefully before I commit anything
Thanks for those thoughts, Doc.
First, in 2008, we saw a more complex D-wave than we had seen before. And that has been followed by a more complex C-wave than we’ve seen before.
And it makes sense to me that this more complex C-wave might alter the next D-wave in ways that we haven’t seen before. Specifically, that support zones may have been created by this complex C-wave that will stop this next D-wave higher than we’d “normally” expect. Which means higher than our “historical models” would indicate.
Not sure if this was directed at me or not.
“The claim that one can never do better in real-time that what one did in the recent past is simply and obviously absurd on its face. That would mean improvement is forever impossible.”
I never said one couldn’t get better. I said there will always be black swan events that will manage to catch us no matter how good we are.
Trying to fix a perfectly good system so it doesn’t get caught by a 4 standard deviation event is just silly. All you will accomplish is to ruin a perfectly good system trying to prevent something that has already happened and is very unlikely to happen again in the same way.
The next event will come from an entirely different direction so fixing the problem from this time isn’t going to catch the problem next time because next time it’s going to be a completely different scenario.
Steven,
To have questions is reasonable. To step over the line to long post after long post of the same questions over and over crosses quickly to whining.
Quite frankly if I pocketed 12m after starting with 2m, I think I would be off celebrating and not berating Gary. I guess to be as levered up as you had to have been, Gary is probably right, you will eventually give it all back.
eeelove,
It is likely you will never make it back if you owned AGQ in the 300’s. You never want to buy ultra etfs in the hundreds. Never. When an extended correction comes, you’ll be shattered. Daily compounding cuts both ways and is deadly if you’re on the wrong side. (Look no further than reverse-splitmeister ZSL.) Take any bounce this coming week and get rid of it.
Doc, I’m a sub to your service also, and you and Gary are excellent. I think you are entirely correct about the ABCD formations. I also think they won’t occur just like they didn’t after the big correction in the mid 70’s. After that correction we got support at the 65 week MA and I think the same will happen for us moving forward. That average is currently at 1296 and moving up strongly.
Doc
So basically you are suggesting that for the next 5 odd years we have a series of repeating ranges with consolidation in between similar to what we have seen since late 2008, with no major corections in between. Then we have the final blow off top at the end of the PM bull.
Beanie is right!
David: LOL!!! ;^)
David: P.S. I admire your psychological insight!
David,
Thank you for the class and the wisdom that you bring to this board. Your posts have really helped me to keep things in perspective.
Thanks, guys. I’m just on my best behavior because its Mother’s Day 😉
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Nothing like a little Animal House humor to bring some perspective!
TZ: Great stuff! The look on Flounder’s face at the end of that clip is priceless.
I lost money last week, but to complain about it is pointless. I have been trading a long time, and two things I was told early on is you can’t spend other peoples profits, and if you dwell on your last trade you can’t successfully prepare for your next trade.
Regarding Gary and what he did or did not do or should have done has been addressed. He has a system that strategically positions him for outsized gains to the market, and will not change due to an outlier event.
If people wish to modify his/her approach for their own portfolio, then just do it, Gary addressed that, as well, before this blow up. He was prepared to ride this down further than most here can or should.
It seems like everyone wants Gary to apologize or admit he was wrong, and he has addressed it.
I wish we now can just focus on our next set ups. Everyday is Groundhog day in trading.
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I will make one more point, regarding having a bad week in the market, it focuses your mind and attention to your set ups.
Steven,
I recall your posts from a few weeks ago regarding your success up to the levels you posted here today. If your are comfortable sharing how you got from that level to the higher level in such a short period, would you? I’m not trying to pry… or emulate, but am very curious!
Thanks in advance and if you don’t care to, I certainly understand.
FWIW gold has formed a large and small T1 pattern out of the 09 B-wave bottom. The summer 10 consolidation marked the mid point consolidation that targets roughly $1650ish.
The smaller T1 pattern started out of the July bottom with the recent 5 month consolidation marking the midpoint consolidation. This smaller T1 pattern also targets gold in the $1650 to $1700 range.
As the second leg up is usually just a bit short gold should trade up to about $1640-50 then if the T1 pattern is valid it should drop back down to the large correction zone at $1250.
The only problem with that is that during the entire bull other than the 8 year cycle low the 75 week moving average has halted all corrections. That average is going to move up to $1300 soon.
I would be a buyer at the 75 week moving average regardless of where a T1 target is especially if the Blees rating is over 90.
Well, Steven has proven to be a whiner before, even dumping SMT because of my opinions.
I see everybody that took leave has decided to come back! 🙂
jh
EW isn’t the most popular subject on this blog, however.
Further on the dicussion about Alf Field earlier. The last EW chart I saw of his was in January of this year when everybody was saying the top was in for gold. Alf was suggesting we were in an extended 5th wave and the correction into the January low was a wave (iv) of the extended 5th. He pretty much nailed the low with his call. He then expected the 5 waves up of wave (v) to his target of 1540~1650 odd. I haven’t seen him post anything since so I’ve taken the liberty of continuing the wave count myself. Please excuse the dogs breakfast as this is my working chart and hopefully I’ve labelled it correctly.
As you can see we’ve completed waves 1, 2 & 3 up from the January low and look to be in the wave 4 correction. If the count is correct it suggests a final wave 5 of (v) to come.
Gold EW chart
Have you seen anything more recent on Alf’s count?
Hong Kong is opening a gold and silver futures market. This is a game changer, as now traders can arbritrage between exchanges, and Hong Kong does not have embedded naked short positions, and also this exchange will need physical gold and silver, in Hong Kong.
This is good news.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/hong-kong-mercantile-exchanges-1-kilo-gold-contract-end-comex-gold-futures-trading-and-bang-?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29
As far as the D-wave goes, very few will make money even if they are correct. It’s a poor bet, even though I agree metals will get hit.
I like the “easy” money.
Time to shorten expected hold times,and use tighter stops in each trade (with more size, keeping total risk constant).
The steady trend is busted, but metals will find buyers into every upcoming dip.
Gary
Another great TA post
There is no reason for Gary to start another subscription.
If people are ready for higher risk, they should be well educated enough to alter Gary’s normal portfolio and build their own high risk portfolios. If they can’t and have to rely on Gary, the new subscription will only open a door for them to blame Gary when they fail. They will because they are not well educated to do it at the beginning.
The least thing we want to see is to have Gary diverges his focus on the normal portfolio that helps most of us.
We need Gary to stay focus!!!
This weekend’s report is good enough and should continue. It has given us options and mention about the opposite outcome (D-wave confirmation). Good to see it covers both sides.
If anyone is still not satisfied, they should go find another blog. I lose money this week too but I want to be reasonable. There is only so much you should ask for.
Now might be a good time to create a big list of your favorite minors and watch which ones get hit the worst (weak ones) through the ensuing D and A waves. The ones that do descent should be posed to make the most gains out of the B wave into another C wave. I think when the B wave comes i will take a bit of my portfolio and buy some nice looking miners and hold onto them for the long haul. My phantasy is to hold something for more than a year or two and make a sweet profit with out having to pay the man so much.
Silverhound: That’s certainly no dog’s breakfast. Very interesting chart. I don’t know enough about EW to add much to what you’ve done, but it seems like a very plausible count and scenario to me.
I haven’t seen anything recently from Alf. I wish he’d post more. You’re a compatriot of his, go down to Sydney, buy him a few pints, and persuade him to put more of his stuff out there!
About EW: if it’s something you’d like to master, you might think about learning the DeMark indicators. As I understand it, Tom DeMark invented an indicator called “TD D-Wave” that supposedly helps take the subjectivity out of Elliott Wave, it makes Elliott Wave more “mechanical” and therefore probably more accurate. There’s a chapter about this indicator in Jason Perl’s book “DeMark Indicators”. These indicators are supposed to be absolutely devastating in their “forward-looking predictive power”. But I just haven’t had the time to learn them yet (which is the case with a lot of more advanced technical analysis tools which I know about). And you need something like TradeStation, CGQ or, ideally, Bloomberg to learn them and apply them. Again, I just haven’t had the time (this isn’t my real job).
Again, I haven’t seen anything recently from Alf, but, if I see ANYTHING from him in the future, I’ll bring it to this forum, and I’d ask you to please do the same.
Cheers! And once again, I’m outta here.
SB, It is your animal spirits that keep them coming back. They try to stay away, but the magnetism is too strong.
Veronica,
You mentioned you are a sub to Doc’s service and he is also excellent.
Do you have the website address?
Gary: thanks for the very informative post. It reminds me that I should be spending more time doing my own research and planning. So I’m outta here. Catch you on the flip-flop!
Bosco: http://www.thedocument.com
jh
Cheers mate. I’ll look into the DeMark stuff you have suggested but the EW stuff is only a secondary indicator for me also.
If I can get a postage stamp on Alf’s forehead…..where should I send him 🙂
Silverhound: send him to my hometown: Minneapolis, Minnesota, U.S.A.! We have such big mosquitos here (Land of 10,000 Lakes!), that they’re the “official state bird”!!!
Veronica,
Please e-mail me at
[email protected].
I have a question.
Here is what I take away from this disaster, because I think it is important to learn from this. Gary is not a guru, he is an advisor. All trades are the responsibility of the trader. Never violate your gut instincts, particularly when the risk-reward ratio has shifted against you. And never fail to close out your positions at least in phases as you start to show large profits. I would have been happy to close at 49 and my gut told me to when we made a double top. I cant blame Gary for that as he is the first to confess he may not be always right. I got greedy. I looked up a few bucks from 49 instead of down from the cliff I was hanging on to, and it was easy to say: well Gary hasnt closed yet and dump off the responsibility on him. It reminds me of the last time I left a ton of dough on the table, and a friend I knew playing the stock (which had gone from 5cents to 22 bucks) was talking to his broker and his broker said SELL and he said, no its going to hit big, and the reply? It already has hit big. SELL. So these are the lessons I will take from this. And never again will I fail to lock in some profits once I have doubles and triples in the portfolio, just because I am greedy and want the quad out of it. These straight up moves are highly dangerous, and call for emergency maneuvers to avoid getting caught in the downdraft.
Steven,
WMP beat me to the punch. I, too, would very much like to understand structurally how you have been able to build capital. If you could also outline some sample very profitable trades (without dollars of course) it would be greatly appreciated.
I for one am always interested in understanding genius.
Thanks
Rodney
HotRod & WMP,
I just stepped in for a minute, so I’ll give the short answer and can elaborate more if you want.
It was a combination of a number of things. Leverage was definitely involved. I also got involved in silver at an early point. I also had some successful day trading. There were a few other items I did as well but one of the most profitable items was to time high leverage for a few days or weeks when I thought AGQ was about to make a move (based on a number of T/A items I look at) and those worked out really well.
So I wasn’t leveraged to the max the entire time but I was leveraged to the max “at times”, usually no more than a few days.
Unfortunately one of those days was the Monday we began to crash!
I even put in a number of HUGE sell orders on Friday (too many shares for a single order) right around the market price and then cancelled. Perhaps this is what I am most upset about but I think mostly I am upset that I didn’t sell late Monday or even Tuesday when it became apparent to me that some was going awry imho. But yes, I feel no pride and much shame even though I took a few million and turned it 20x at one point. I had an even crazier ride during the tech boom (I was VERY early in that one and picked the right ponies) but that didn’t end very well either.
I can give more specifics later but I hope this helps for now.
Question for anyone. DO you know where the futures ended at 5:15 on Friday? 35.XX?
I’m watching it live on my platform but that doesn’t show where it closed but where it is up from Friday’s pit session close. Unfortunately all Kitco shows is a 20 cent range 35.62-35.82 but does anyone remember where it actually closed?
Second question, what is the exact differential between SLV and the futures right now? It used to be 80 cents or so but I thought it had changed somewhat?
Thanks in advance for any answers.
SB,
We buried our conversation. There is no need to incite. And I NEVER threatened to leave SMT over our issues. Let’s please leave them be.
I have to say that creating additional portfolios for an additional premium in the advent of a few members complaining about losing their shirt is a little irksome. This is essentially a tax on the membership because a few people here cannot own their own trades.
Having access to Gary’s own portfolio helps to inform me of how I want to allocate my own capital.
This isn’t about the additional premium, but the notion that the membership will have to pay additionally for information we previously had bargained for is bothersome.
Gary’s disclaimer wholly indemnifies him from any responsibility for third party trades. People must trade at their own risk but I’d ask Gary to reconsider based on what’s fair to the membership.
“Here, I’ll make everyone very happy. I will do my best not to post here anymore unless it is to a specific member or absolutely necessary imo. But I’ll refrain from being an active participant since this is obviously not a free speech environment.”
-Steven
You must forget how many times you leave.
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Lets not take this blog stuff to personal. We don’t even know each other.
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Be careful, last week’s massive selloff indicates a trend change. Silver could eventually see $20-25. I’m thinking that is a likely target. That’s usually the case with most stocks. Maybe silver has superpowers and does something entirely different, who knows.
Frankly, I wish silver would just barf and drop to 20$ and start the next phase as we’re locked in fear at this time.
Gary
This may be a 4 SD move in random markets, but given the size of the move in Silver and it parabolic nature, I suspect the 30 percent downdraft was mich more common than that.
I haven’t looked at any charts lately to verify what I’m about to say, but most parabolas I recall end in a very steep and deep correction.
F
Stephen,
I show silver closed last FRI at $35.32 at 515 pm eastern.
Gary,
The weekend report only advised those who took the alternative strategy. As you know, some of us didn’t get that message until after close Thursday and still hold AGQ/DGP.
It’s obvious silver is a pariah by the weekend report recommendations and you’ve left those who didn’t or couldn’t execute the alternative strategy out in the cold. Someone asked before if you would make an exit recommendation. If I missed it would you please repeat it?
SB,
You are really a master at twisting people’s words. I never said I was leaving just limiting my postings. And I NEVER EVER said before I was leaving. In fact I previously said people should not leave based upon our prior discussions other people may have said that but I didn’t and encouraged people to stay. You just can’t leave it alone can you or get in a pot shot whenever possible.
Post whatever else you want I’m not responding.
Thanks Salty but was that the 5:15 close on Friday? I thought it was closer to 35.70ish.
FC,
I think we all knew silver was going to crash. We just all expected it not to happen until gold topped and I’m not at all convinced gold has topped.
Gary,
What will be the bottom line, gold going lower, no way up indicator?
The equities market is actually holding up quite well in spite of the plunge in commodities:
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?s=spx
Semis and tech appear to be the ones on verge of breakout to take the general market higher.
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?qqq
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?s=smh
I’ve said many times now (except the last few weeks when precious metals were getting a boner) that we get the last mega bull market in tech into 2016-2018 before precious metals re-emerges and the entire financial system collapses. The recent crash in pm’s and commodities is what the next bull market in tech has been waiting for. It happened last week. You should see a big rally in tech this coming week.
Pm’s are weaker than I thought. I thought they would gap higher tonite and run to $40 Monday-Wednesday. But futures are down at the getgo.
Perhaps the C wave burst at top that we all expected ends up in longer width of time rather than height of it’s reach. Gary said the bull would do whatever it needed too to knock as many off as possible, or Bernanke and Tim’s plan is working. I prefer Bob from HI thoughts.
Gary, I saw your post for strategy going forward. Not happy to see that. Not sure how that helps any of us.
I was quite happy to know I was not gunning it to the floor as much as you, so felt safe knowing you were going full speed ahead and confident and I could gauge my speed to yours. Now, I don’t know where I stand, looking at what you posted, has me scratching my head thinking…huh? Now, it looks like my portfolio to yours, has you coming to to a screeching halt as I flash right by you with my hair on fire!
Please continue posting as Gary is, not as Gary wants us to do. I am sure all of us were told, if your friend jumped off a bridge, would you follow? We pay for Gary does and thinks, not for what Gary thinks we ought to do. Let us make our mistakes and learn along the way, only way to learn what’s right for each of us. Plus with a position like you posted, that would make for one hell of a boring ride any way it goes.
My 2 cents and hope you will reconsider to continue what you have been doing and telling it like Gary does so well.
WMC,
At this point its anybodies guess. I think gold has to at least test the low before it can go back up. That probably means silver will go back down too. Will it go down a couple of percent or another 10%?
I have no idea.
We’re kind of in the same situation as last Monday. We aren’t privy to the future so it’s really tough to make a decision.
Hey Gary,
I gotta say, if the new portfolio you’re posting is the version of what you think people should have rather than what you’re doing, I’m feeling cheated. You clearly stated in the past that people should not take on your level of leverage unless it fit their risk tolerance.
I’ve been a subscriber for appx two years now, and I want to see your portfolio, and make my decisions from there.
You can’t expect to control what people do. you know as wel as any greed and fear run markets. you can’t possibly expect to control those driving forces by suggesting a conservative portfolio, and if you do, why should your more responsible subscribers lose out on knowing what your allocation is?
Just feeling a little irked at the change.
May I suggest that you give your allocation and next to it a more conservative one that is appx 50% invested in PMs during C-Waves.
F
at ease,
You know what my position is. so you know where I stand at this juncture.
In the future you will just have to decide for yourself if you want to go heavier than the model portfolio. The analysis will remain the same. I will still call entries and exits as I see them but it will be up to you as to how aggressively you want to get with them.
FC,
See my comment to at ease above.
Gary,
I’ve never paid any attention to your positions, but now you call attention to them.
Does the abbreviated exposure indicate you’re not very confident in your current predictions ?
steven,
looks like you are correct. Kitco shows 37 seventy ish at 515 last fri.
my fx chart stopped recording data at 4 pm… dont know why.
sorry 35.70
Wes,
Not at all. I’ve been trusting my system for several years now. Other then a Monday gap catching me it has served me very well. If it helps any you can always assume that I am going to be invested at least 30 to 70% heavier than the model portfolio.
With that said, I can easily create my own allocation based on where we are in the cycle counts.
After all, that’s what I’ve been doing anyway.
i’m willing to bet that you continue to see the same percentage of subscribers misallocating based on their innate greed to make easy money fast. They will still get creamed and lose most if not all their gains when the exciting tops form and fail.
f
Gary, your the boss, but what drew me to your site, was your approach to the market and sector. Change is hard, but feel like the smackdown last week and the smackdown you got on the blog from some is giving the rest of us a smackdown again also.
I like Gary and his insight, would like to see it continue. I am amazed that you can take so much guff and keep on giving. It is hard, I can see that, I couldn’t do what you do. Thanks for all you do and continue to do. Happy with Gary and all he does!
thanks! 🙂
Gary,
How much is the subscription to see your allocation?
f
Salty,
That sounds about right. Thank you for the confirmation!
Steven
Gary-
Will you write up a D Wave put strategy for the SMT subs when appropriate?
Seems like the premium content will not even cover options now?
Ashraf Laidi: “Have USD shorts really bottomed?” (2nd post down):
http://www.ashraflaidi.com/forex-news/
There will absolutely not be a put strategy in the normal report. My recommendation will be to just go on vacation for a couple of months and wait till the A-wave starts.
FC,
If you email a request I will send you the information.
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Dollar is down 0.26 at 74.66 and declining.
I want to publicly say that I have no grudge against Gary or anyone else’s analysis on this blog.
I am a big boy and whether I make a million dollars or go broke, it is my doing.
The dollar is tanking at the moment. If this thing rolls over and starts losing ground in a big way it will be on.
Feels like the whole membership is incurring punishment for a few outlier subs who fail to take responsibility for their trades.
Paying a lot more premium to get content we have already bargained for and have grown accustomed to seeing is unfair.
Creating an additional premium newsletter far and above the regular sub price is not going to deter subs from wanting to indulge in overly leveraged trades in an attempt to make money quickly. I imagine that most if not all subs will pay additional money to follow your trades in lockstep with the hopes of making huge sums quickly. Charging more money for information that you know people will invariably pay for seems exploitative.
All it seems to do is create an additional revenue stream for you and alienate subs that have been loyal for some time… Just my two cents
Did I miss something regarding the SMT service?
Hardly I’ve priced it high enough that almost no one will buy it 🙂
Gary,
I lost a significant amount of money last week. At no time did I give the first thought to holding you accountable in any way nor did I feel the least bit annoyed with you. It was my trade on the way up and mine on the way down. That said, I find your decision to create and charge for a second portfolio a very big disappointment, especially in light of the losses of the last week.
Pat
In other words, Gary will show you his allocation and market calls, but wont let anyone follow him again to 14o% or let people buy too many options on his recommendation, and how could he? He cant possibly decide if 140% suits you or your portfolio or your reasonable disposition of saving and invested funds. Same thing with buying 50 call options. I am fine with it. If I know he is buying GLD, I will decide if I want or need options and how many. No investment advisor wants blind following. If my advisor will let me know his market thoughts and buy/sell levels, thats all I want quite frankly. You simply must make your own personal risk decisions.
I agree. People with large account may be able to afford “expensive” SMT, but I feel I am left behind after last week mess. I understand that black swan events are unavoidable and accepted that fact, but, I was hoping to recover some profits during D wave, as Gary suggested in his weekend report. Now all of a sudden, I am left in the dark. Gary, I would request to reconsider this decision because many here will need your help (via your portfolio) to come out of last week’s mess as it gives comfort that you are in it with us. Leaving us behind would mean more damage as many won’t be able to make right decisions because of emotional damage they went through last week.
One idea could be to include people with existing subscription to this new expensive SMT until their subscription runs out, at that point, you can give them the option to pick premium content or basic content. In this case, at least we won’t be left behind for the time that we have this subscription with “old” terms. I hope it will be fair for you and all of us. I know you had to go through a lot of tense questions/comments, please consider this as part of business.. thanks
Jammer,
That’s fine with me, but I do want to know how strongly Gary feels about his current expectations. That’s all I ever used his exposure to determine.
Gary,
Maybe you can indicate your confidence in your expectations in some other way.
Jammer-
Gary will not publish his allocation to regular SMT subs, only a conservative model portfolio.
The dollar is tanking at the moment. If this thing rolls over and starts losing ground in a big way it will be on.
It has become painfully obvious to me that many people take their cue off my portfolio. Since I’m heavily invested they see that as a sign that it’s all clear to swing away because Gary is swinging.
Folks the only reason Gary is swinging is because Gary can afford to strike out, not because I’m certain I won’t be wrong.
I’m removing that false signal. Now you will have to make up your own mind about how hard you want to swing without the distraction of seeing mine.
I can’t blame Gary for his actions. There have been >3750 comments posted since Monday’s meltdown and I can’t imagine how many negative e-mails he got. He isn’t a full service broker but many expected it.
Gary,
For example when you sold AGQ and didn’t replace it with any gold exposure, I regarded this as a caution on your part about adding any exposure at that time.
Later you verified that thought.
This type of information will be missing going forward, and it diminishes the overall information level, particularly in real time.
That’s disappointing, but I can live with it.
Well…I am anticipating and hoping and would recommend that when Gary puts out a conservative portfolio he will just post his allocations: say 25% silver miners, 30% Silver, 25% gold, 20% cash, I can take it from there. If he will say I am buying Gold at 1460 I can take it from there. And I am hoping he will during the D Wave post where he thinks very high risk aggressive traders might have a tradable downdraft, but not give me instruments or strike prices etc.. I will take it from there. I am hoping what he plans to do is a bit of a work in progress. So…to summarize, Gary I hope what we get is:
– % allocations to silver, gold (not interested in the instruments which I will choose) and silver miners and gold miners, again without telling me which miners;
-buy and sell spot levels for gold and silver and miners/HUI (again in general,not specific miners); and
perhaps an occasional statement that the expected sell off might be tradable for high risk aggressive traders with buy support at X, Y, Z levels. That kind of thing. That way I make my own decisions on instruments, price levels, amount of risk to put on etc. I find I am much happier that way.
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Gary,
I’m with Jammer. I never followed your portfolio exactly, and I won’t probably ever do options because I just don’t have any clue about them, but I will say that I do look at how you spread you investment money to give me a guideline.
I understand if you no longer are comfortable sharing that information. I thought it was pretty remarkable in the first place.
Thank you.
Elaine
I’m in with Jammer and Elaine. I adapted the portfolio to suit my own account as if it was a set of relative strength recommendations. I can’t “do what Gary does” to the letter.
However I would sure like some way to play the D-wave besides a vacation. My responsibility. I know what I can lose here.
This just is additionally jarring after a very jarring week. Feels like we are getting left out in the cold, Gary. I understand that you don’t want SMT subs trading on your allocations (which may ameliorate your conscience) but that is what the service was, as initially conceived.
We ran into a black swan event last week unfortunately, an event which seems to have affected how you see your obligations to your subscription base. I am a fairly experienced trader that can make it on my own but it doubtless helps me to see how you and other more seasoned traders are positioned.
As for options content, options can be complex financial instruments but I find it at least instructive to help your less experienced traders to understand how you play them at particular times (like DITM calls on parabolic moves and out of the money puts on d-wave volatility). Only last week did you iterate how much you believed out of the money put options on SLV would be very profitable, and now you are inclined to deprived your entire premium subs of a way to participate in the D Wave.
Again, I think this is a bit paternalistic with a view to protect people from themselves but I will stress that we are all adults that are obligated to account for our own trades.
Judging from the response on this board, this change has and will not be taken easily and I can understand your trepidation going forward after receiving a categorically unfair response to last weeks’ silver sell off, but this change does seem wholly reactionary to a few subs aggressive and misplaced animosity after losing considerable paper profits.
Its seems as though your mind has settled on this issue but a healthy discussion amongst the blog can only be constructive.
Good luck trading, all 🙂
Some subs may be upset at this comment, but I sure hope the few, don’t ruin it for the many.
This has been a very, very valuable experience for me and I would hate to see Gary get so upset that he discontinues writing the newsletter.
I’m in with Blake, Jammer and Elaine. I adapted the portfolio to suit my own account as if it was a set of relative strength recommendations. I can’t “do what Gary does” to the letter.
However I would sure like some way to play the D-wave besides a vacation. My responsibility. I know what I can lose here.
Felix, is it really that difficult to buy OTM puts when indexes are at new highs? How much money is involved? I was under the impression they could be had on the cheap. You could have picked up an OTM put a couple of days from expiration two Fridays ago and made money. 7 days would have done the trick. Of course, most will expire worthless, but it’s insurance. You never really hope to collect on insurance. Does anyone have a link to some OTM puts that I can look at?
Steven,
The mob is not after you. Only a couple of people have posted something negative about your posts. Out of hundreds of SMT subs (or thousands?).
I also believe that your posts had nothing to do with Gary’s decision to no longer post his own portfolio.
Anyone reading the comments section of the blog over the past two months could easily see that there were a lot of folks using heavy leverage, EVEN THOUGH GARY HAS CONTINUED TO WARN US TO NOT USE HEAVY LEVERAGE, AND THAT IF YOU CONTINUE TO USE HEAVY LEVERAGE YOU WILL EVENTUALLY BLOW UP YOUR ACCOUNT AND THERE ARE NO EXCEPTIONS TO THIS RULE!
It was obvious that these warnings were being ignored, that there were lots of folks using heavy leverage, and many of those were new subs and even newbie traders. It made me nervous! And I wondered whether the market would throw us a curve ball that would make it very difficult for those using leverage.
So I think Gary’s plan to post a model portfolio that is good for most investors is a good plan. And I believe it had nothing to do with your posts.
I’m sorry to read about how much this recent downmove has cost you. I hope you’ll continue posting here. Everyone who posts here will eventually get a negative response to one of their posts. You can’t please everyone.
DD – Sure it’s not difficult, but recommendations from a seasoned trader who is deeply immersed in the application of a particular trading model – a successful one which I am also following – are worth more than gold (or parabolic silver) to me
If anything should upset subscribers, it’s the fact THEY have made Gary change.
Again, the responsibility is the trader’s.
I’m surprised that this change to the sub service is such a big deal. Gary has not said that he will NOT be posting a portfolio. What he has said is that he will be posting a recommended portfolio that should work well for most subs.
It’s not like Gary will not be in the market along with us. In fact, based on his prior portfolio allocations, he will be more heavily invested than the model portfolio.
If you want more leverage, you know what to do. Just use one of the double long etf’s. Or use deep in the money calls. It’s not that hard to figure out.
But remember Gary’s repeated warnings about leverage: Repeated use of heavy leverage will always blog up an account, and there are no exceptions to this rule.
“blow up”, not “blog up” 🙂
It is time to start focusing on trading. Dollar down PM’s up. Anything is possible here with QE2. If the dollar did a large coil or fake out we will all be singing songs and whistling soon. I could totally see how smart money could stage this whole thing for an absolute killing.
Gary,
I am also a survivor of the dot com tech crash. One of the lessons I learned is that margin, options and leverage is great when it is going in the right direction, but rapidly fatal when not. Since that experience, I have sworn off the use of all those instruments. You do lose everything eventually.
What I value about your service is your analysis of the markets in relation to your methodology. You have good insight into the markets and am impressed with your calls. That alone is the most valuable thing I see on a nightly basis. You made me a ton of gains and I thank you.
Two points. First, I think you should refrain from picking specific stocks / ETFs. If you are saying, for example that silver is in an A wave advance, I should be responsible to pick what is right for me. Comments about miners vs. metal would be helpful, but the actual instruments should be left up to the individual. Maybe you want to create a list of your preferred ETFs, but is the metal is going up, it should be my responsibility to choose AGQ or SLV. Second, options are experts. If your sub does not have enough understanding to use them, they should not be. Guiding someone via e-mail to use options is like guiding a blind man driving down a highway via a cell phone, shocking if it ends well.
For me, I am pleased. I never used margin, leverage or options. I never went below 25% cash in my account. I am up 20% since the beginning of the year. The dot com bubble was a searing experience, but the parabola we just had in silver, not so. Some folks you can tell not to pee on the electric fence, some have to watch their friend, and others just have to experience for themselves. At least I didn’t have to experience it twice before I learned.
Very happy to be aboard is this gladiator. Looking for the long haul with y’all.
“We who are about to die salute you!” Pick up, dust off. Bandage, splint.
Ready.
I don’t feel influenced by Gary’s aggressive portfolio. I have zero interest in options, – got to start with the basics first, – and have never used leverage and don’t plan on starting.
All eyes on the gold price. If silver was the whipping boy and got creamed due to the margins and dollar rally duo then it will make its way back in no time. I just don’t see the dollar finishing higher than last year with this kind of circulation?
Thank you Pima,
It means alot. And the few that did attack me seemed to overlook the fact that I consistently said Gary was the best I have ever seen and appreciate what he has done for everyone.
He even picked me up in an email exchange a number of months ago when he could have simply ignored me. I think Gary is extremely bright and, fwiw, has a good heart and the best intentions of his subs. Heck, I know he got slammed on this decision as well.
I waited all week to post something but frankly I was so shell-shocked I couldn’t gather my thoughts. Then over the weekend I put my thoughts down.
I never intended it to be a slam on Gary. I was just extremely perplexed by his actions. One example was why we weren’t selling the week before when we got so close to $50 when that was the ultimate goal (just an example).
Gary, in turn, explained it to me. gary also clearly stated that I was not the reason for this change. Perhaps I was the straw that broke the camel’s back. I have lost considerable money following some of his trades in the past but at least I understood his thinking. I didn’t understand it this time and I’m still at odds with it but that it what a discussion boards is for, isn’t it?
Nobody, not me, not Gary should be beyond questioning. And he has always encouraged questioning. And I do not believe anything I did was offensive or less than respectful or even vengeful.
My questioning really also was not venting but truly trying to understand his actions as I was completely clueless why he acted the way he did. I now understand why he did and while I still disagree with parts of it the ultimate decision (and I say this in almost every post) was mine and I accept the responsibility.
I will continue to be a sub as long as Gary continues this service. I have actually dropped most of my other services if that shows how much I respect him.
And I do not want to put words into Gary’s mouth but perhaps after being barraged by emails this past week (I never sent one) and comments on the boards (I never posted one regarding his decisions and unfortunately I didn’t get the text message for some odd reason until hours after he sent it and AGQ was down another 25 or so points but that’s probably AT&T’s fault!) when I did finally post he had simply had it. Had my posts come in the middle of the week they would have simply been lost in shuffle.
So to set the record straight, even though we have points of disagreement I never blamed him for my situation. I was just questioning the tactics (I think many did just that simply by doing something else or saying so on the board).
And I’ll even go a step further and give him credit as I probably have made more money with him than without him. It’s hard to say but the answer is almost positively yes. I just can’t say for sure as I became a sub over the summer and my portfolio was not extremely different than his and while I don’t know how that one would have done I assume it would have underperformed Gary’s if only for the fact that it was less geared towards silver than Gary’s portfolio.
So is it ok to thank Gary for what he has done for me and question why he did something? I don’t think Gary would say no but again I don’t want to put words into his mouth.
We can ge realtime texts?
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I’m here for educational purposes only. I am not relying on Gary to get me to retirement, I’m 26 and need to learn to do this on my own.
There is plenty of knowledge and expertise on the blog, so I hope they can help answer my questions regarding puts during the D wave. Either way, I’ll be using a small amount as a learning tool.
Steven
We got it. Give it a rest. These long posts are frankly getting old.
k. short enough? and you can skip them you know.
Steven,
That butt-kissing was sufficient until the back-handed compliments.
You need to give it a break.
Steven, There are a lot of names for what you were doing. Backhanded Thank You comes to mind. Call it what you like, but the message was clear. We all understand. You screwed up. It was Gary’s fault. Let’s move on.
Hey SB, I reckon you account is bigger than Steven’s!
DG,
Is your ‘short the dollar’ trade still in effect for tomorrow?
I am swearing off leverage and going back to buying property at no money down.
Hey Bob, I have a few CRE deals working up here in Detroit that I think would fit you like a glove!
Brian, only if they are abandoned. 🙂
Bob, Now we are on the same page! Shoot me your ACH info and I will capture a retainer and we can get started ASAP!
Gary, you are fantastic! I am responsible for all the buy and sell decisions—- so is everyone else. No one is likely to be able to hit all the curves and knuckles, mathematically unlikely to impossible. I want you to be happy and sleep at night. Perhaps there are many investors who know next to nothing about options, myself included,who are part of SMT. If I were you I would charge them sommething like 40k a year to protect their portfolio from a high arrogance titer.
Hey Gary, I know you are a bit emotional right now, but I hope you will be a bit more descriptive than just go on vacation on the D wave.
You may simply point out overvalued areas, typically we can expect this or that, etc. and let us draw our own conclusions.
Your greatest asset to me is your uncanny ability to call IT cycle turns. BTW, I agree that gold has not failed a C wave yet, and there will be some validation.
Sleep on it, and rethink a better approach.
Catbird: Yes, and the dollar is down nicely so far overnight. Remember it’s a short term thing, so a stiff down day would honor its call. Hopefully it’s the start of more, but the signal doesn’t demand more. I will post Monday if the dollar is just down a hair, as to whether the signal is still alive. So far so good.
Please don’t let last week’s events cloud your judgement THIS week, or you’ll be making two mistakes, not just one.
Do you have a trading plan for this week?
The game is afoot. Gold, silver and the dollar have all opened for the week. If you’ve still got skin in the game, it might be best to focus and figure out your trading plan for THIS week, or you could get clobbered again or lose a big opportunity that will help rectify last week.
I know how painful it is to lose a lot of money. I’ve been through it, every trader on the planet has been through it. But, if you’ve still got money in this game, now’s the time to focus on at least this coming week.
Maybe we get lucky and the dollar will keep sinking and reap the harvest of a c-wave finale. maybe
P.S. All the best to everyone on this board — no exceptions.
Shalom,
I’ve been fiddling around with the Average True Range (ATR) on (free) Stockcharts this weekend.
If I recall, your preferred stop price is the 20 week ATR?
Do you have any other favorite ways of deciding on your stop?
P.P.S. Well, except maybe for Beanie. ;^) I think that guy is a paid Disinformation Agent.
This stuff happens to people even in the know pros. Let’s dust off and get back to work. From Zero Hedge.
“The FT reports the Clive Capital, the “world’s largest commodity hedge fund” as defined by the FT (although we are more than confident various other and much largest “energy-heavy” funds would be much more appropriate for this moniker) lost $400 million out of its (paltry) $5 billion in total AUM during last week’s coordinated energy take down, initiated by the forced margin intervention in precious metals. Clive “is the biggest of several big hedge funds believed to be reeling after the unexpected sell-off hit markets late last week.” Clive is not alone: “Others, including Astenbeck Capital, the Phibro-owned fund run by Andrew Hall, are thought to have taken double-digit percentage point losses to their portfolios, according to investors.” The FT’s take: “The scale of the losses demonstrates that even the savviest investors in commodities were wrongfooted by the correction, one of the sharpest one-day falls on record.” “
AgAu,
Great post. Your blind man analogy had me laughing out loud.
Bob, that bad news REALLY makes puny me feel good. Thank you.
catbird,
Yes, the 20 period ATR is what I use, but it depends on the expected hold time.
If looking for a 7-10 day hold time or less, I used the 20 DAY ATR.
If playing an intermediate cycle or any expected hold time 2 weeks out+, then I use the 20 WEEK ATR.
I think you are making the right move Gary. At the end of the day the main asset that we have as investors is our psychology and when you lose allot of money quickly psychology is damaged severely. I think anything that you can do to help us out while also encouraging us to think for ourselves would be great. The 2 most beautiful things in the world are a stock that is increasing and a beautiful man or woman and both are incredibly intoxicating when we are personally involved with them and so are set the seeds of potential disaster in both cases. I of course learned the leverage lesson the hard way during the first leg down of the bear and so after last week I had a minor grief reaction and sold out of some short term accounts at a loss and have to decide what to do with the stuff in longer term accounts (as you have noted in the past a bull market ultimately corrects timing mistakes). Because I wasn’t leveraged I didn’t have much loss of sleep, palpitations in the middle of the night or self berating thoughts. Gary so far my experience with your service has been that you have honestly shared with us you opinions and analysis and it doesn’t seem to be infected with any conflict of interest. Funny thing is that two other newsletters I subscribe to came to the email after the close last friday and announced that they thought there was a bubble in silver. H’mm? Anyway I think that people inevitably will come to think of you as some kind of oracle and you don;t need the grief being a “guru” inevitably brings. So the most important part of your service to me is the analysis and reasoning and also learning about cycle theory and the other tools you use. We all know about SIL, GDX, GDXJ etc and should know that AEM is a great company etc. We can all subscribe to other services for individual PM stock analysis (please don’t if the accept money to sponsor stocks-gag) and we should all be watching other analysts on bnn.ca etc. I don’t think there is really any reason for you to publish a specific portfolio. Thank you for your service Gary!
Bob,
Thanks for posting and good to know it wasn`t just us `snuffies` that got whacked.
I think first order of business is to try to recover as much as possible from last week if we get some bounce this week and get into some cash until we can figure out which way the wind is going to blow here.
Thanks to everybody that posts here. This has been a big wake up to how much it really sucked doing this alone. Best to everybody.
Gary, I’ve learned alot from everyone on here and I appreciate this community. After Thursday’s sad sale of my AGQ, my toddler daughter had a fever that went up to 105+. She was very sick and we nearly went to the hospital again. She is epileptic and scares us sometimes. You’re always afraid that a seizure will have a really bad ending. Anyway, that event made me think about what is REALLY important in life and what I appreciate that I have around me. Maybe we all need to do that sometimes.
So, I want to encourage you a bit in a genuine way if I may. I’ve been a pastor for more than a decade and I think your role here is much the same as that one; it just ends up that way when you are the expert surrounded by less-expert people.
I think the thing that impresses me most about you to date is your kind heart. You’ve obviously given alot of time to figuring out how to keep us from tanking our accounts. That took effort on your part, and hey after all you’re retired and when you’re helping us, you’re not lifting or climbing. So, thanks. I overinvested this C-wave, on porpose, because I was using some unexpected $ and I wanted to learn fast because I feel like I need to. I did the math, and I figured the chances of a smackdown were small. Of course, they were, and even pitchers get hits sometimes too. But I have learned much and in my mind after getting neck deep in the stuff, I am miles ahead of where I was 3 months ago when I was trying to do this on my own and making dumb decisions. Anyway, thanks for being a tough guy who cares, thanks for sharing what you’ve learned, thanks for responding to me personally, and thanks for putting up with our stuff. Please know that we all appreciate you, we just have trouble with our emotions, as they are strongly connected to our cash.
Well, it appears the whiners have added an extra burden to Gary. All I can say is that I’ve been very happy with his service. It enabled me to move partially from AGQ to UGL on Friday before the plunge started, obviously saving me money. If I did it, others could have.
DG,
Thanks, I’ll look out for your update.
Gary,
I support your decision 100%. After all, we still all have access to your thinking, your analysis, your brain. And that’s what we signed up for.
Forjan
Shalom,
Thanks. I was reading a little of “Market Wizards” this weekend.
Your strategy of keeping risk constant and only adjusting for stop breadth and position size seems much more sensible than the way I’ve been investing.
Then I read the Paul Tudor Jones interview and that of Larry Hite. Their advice about managing risk above all else resonated with me.
It’s all about how much capital you could possibly lose. When that is sharply defined going in, and it’s a tiny % of your portfolio, you’re not stressing out. And upside is of course very high because you can slap a trailing stop on there if/when you have a satisfactory profit.
I’m still new and figuring out my style. I’m going to try this and start by only risking 1/2% to 1% of portfolio value per trade.
DG,
As long as I’m asking people about stops–what are your favorite ways of figuring your stop when you first put a trade on?
SB was just saying for short term trades (7-10 days) he likes the 20 day Average True Range and for longer term he likes the 20 week.
Just curious to know your rule of thumb.
Wow, KAL. Well said. I think there are a lot of us out here who feel the same way about Gary.
Catbird: I’m a bit of an odd duck that way. They vary tremendously based on the situation so I can’t really give rules of thumb. Could be charts, could be $ loss, could be “the item has just now done something bearish”, could be break-even after I have a gain, could be my corns start to ache (o.k., maybe not that one). I usually know it’s time to abandon ship when I see it, but there are no binding rules for me.
Has it occurred to anybody here that maybe Gary is coming up with a two-tier service because it makes sense for him from a business standpoint?
After all, he has subs with five-figure accounts and subs with nine or even ten figure accounts. If someone here is making sixty-three million piggybacking on Gary’s ideas, it makes sense for Gary to charge them more than $200. He presumably also has some institutional subscribers. Why should they pay the same price or get the same information as retail investors who probably should not be using exotic strategies in the first place.
It’s Gary’s decision. All I need to know is where he thinks we are in the cycle, whether we should be leaning toward gold, silver, miners, metal, or cash, and how aggressive he thinks I should be.
As long as there is a comments section we will always be able to share our ideas and come up with portfolios of our own. So let’s not complain about it or blame people for Gary’s decision. If it bothers you that much, shell out for the high-end newsletter.
Kal, great post, I will pray for your little one and her health. Where do you preach?
I hope this move up tonight is not a tease. I was speaking with a few other traders that frequent this site and we agreed having a small futures account positioned opposite of our lean might be prudent.
These big moves happen overnight to trap retail and cause a cascade. This way I can forgo hedging with options.
My system will go long at 1549, with this number moving down in the coming days.We really need an up day for gold and miners tomorrow to get me wildly bullish again:)
David, if I had $63 million dollars, I would not try to self manage it, at 140% leverage. That dude should be paying someone $600K a year to baby sit it while he is off following his passions.
Holy smokes are we back to “normal” tonight?
USD down, gold up, silver up more.
Let’s keep it up.
Chugga chugga choo choo.
Remember that IHS on the SPY, it bounced off of its retest of the neckline. This could be a start of a 80 point move higher.
Gold will follow that move.
Hot Rod, sure would be good to get some profits back, AND lesson learned too with silver crash
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I think everyone here that was hit hard by silver’s decline should complain to the CEO of SLW. He stated that he would start hedging/shorting at 48.00 on an earnings conference call earlier this year.
Veronica, I hope they hedged hard at that price. I own SLW, and they are smart operators.
SLW reports before the bell tomorrow. I expect a great report.
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veronica .. you sure about that ?
The number $50 per ounce appeared in another discussion about silver. I first came across this target in James Turk’s theory about three stages for silver’s bull market with stage 2 beginning at $50. This time $50/ounce came up in an interview with Silver Wheaton’s CEO, Peter Barnes, as he discussed SLW’s earnings results on CNBC (video below).
Barnes noted that some “reputable banks” have made predictions for silver to hit $50/ounce by the end of the year. He thinks silver will definitely go through $50 in the next 2-3 years, but it “could be quicker.” Barnes’s bullishness was confirmed when he stated that hedging the company’s silver is nowhere on the horizon; hedging might be considered once silver hits $50.
Note the use of the word MIGHT.
Jm’s comment that he keeps deleting and that I just responded to.
“So much guff…lol..Just one guy alone on here lost 90k of his portfolio based on the “this will no doubt shoot to at least 50, everyone use all dry powder on this one”… and it then continues to tank.. Just kidding everyone, that was the D wave…o ya the risk to reward ratio..hmmm 49 goes to 50, 52 tops… 3 dollar move up… Risk downward according to gary for the pull back was 41-42…for a $7-8 loss…hmmm can any guru on here tell me if that is a good call?”
Hell I can tell you that. Missed it by a mile.
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KAL: let me join in with others to say that was a great post. You have a beautiful family. All the best to all of you.
And to give everyone here some perspective: gold is now at about $1500. Over the next 7 – 9 years, it will probably be going up to somewhere in the $8000 – $10,000 range. THERE IS A HUGE PART OF THIS MASSIVE BULL MARKET LEFT TO MAKE BACK ALL OF YOUR LOSSES, AND A LOT, LOT, LOT MORE THAN THAT. You should thank your lucky stars that you are already involved in the Great Gold Bull Market, and that you have someone like Gary to teach you how to fish it. When it comes to surviving and even thriving in this horrific financial crisis, everyone here is so very far ahead of the rest of the population that it isn’t funny. At this point, you are part of a very small, blessed minority.
Which brings me to one last point: I know it’s very hard to do, but PLEASE try to wake up people around you: your family, friends, acquaintances, strangers. Wake them up to the fact that we are only in about the third inning of the biggest financial crisis the world has ever seen, and that what’s to come (stocks crashing, Treasury bonds crashing, and especially the dollar crashing = a form of hyperinflation) is actually going to be worse than 2008. Please persuade people to buy as much physical gold and silver as they can to survive what’s coming. (And if you want to give them a healthy scare, give them the book “When Money Dies”, which is about the Weimar Hyperinflation. You can tell them: “I don’t think it’s going to get as bad as this, but this is the process we’re starting to go through with the dollar, and it’s going to get very bad.”) And it would be nice if they followed someone like Gary, who could help them invest any other money they might have in the best gold and silver stocks AT THE RIGHT TIME = the bottom of the D-wave, bottom of the B-wave, etc.
I know it’s very tough to get people to do these things (God how I know), but I feel it’s almost a moral duty to get as many people as possible into by far the safest lifeboat in this ongoing financial hurricane — the precious metals.
All the best.
JHN,
I keep trying. So far, only my brother has joined in on the metals investing after spending a week with me. However, not sure if he is really in it for the long haul or just thinking it’s a curtain fad to make a little money.
It sure didn’t help that this past week was the week, I spent with my family, so they weren’t impressed rather just more skeptical about what Mom’s got herself into since she was on the computer on Monday and Friday trying to salvage account balances and not joining in the family activities. Until Gold and silver becomes the more stable investment, I fear we won’t convince a lot of folks until it’s too late. All we can do is keep trying to improve our knowledge and skills and show them how it’s done. I am not an expert by any sense, which is why I am here with Gary and the SMT group here which provides me the confidence and more knowledge to invest more wisely. I imagine we will become one big family after going through the worst and best of times here with Gary. You know how family’s have so many different personalities, you can already spot a few already that stand out. I just think the best is yet to come for us, so here we go again!
…at ease: I hear ya. What I find effective is to show a family member my account results after a “good run” (“look at these numbers, I’m up 30% in 3 months”), and then to talk to them every once in a while about what this crisis is really about at this point: paper money losing its buying power, high inflation that’s going to keep higher, the global currency system coming apart.
And you’re right about every one in here becoming a family. We’ll be going through financial warfare together, helping each other out as best we can.
So — hey Bro!!!! ;^)
I’m calling it a night. Good luck to all in this coming week!
If this rally lasts a couple more days I would have to consider it a bear flag, and will unload all remaining positions.
If it continues higher, no problem, I’d be buying OTM puts on SLV (3% of portfolio), also some EUO and SH/SDS, and will sit tight until Gary calls the A-wave.
f
Fidelity folks… good news!
With the A wave, I believe we are hearing the miners will be doing great. So for those of you with Fidelity accounts, the one fund that did terrific for me last A wave (last fall) was: FSAGX, FIDELITY SELECT GOLD.
Gary,
I understand your reasoning for the altered portfolio publication. I always say that we should never make any important decisions when emotions are at extreme highs or lows. Right now, we’ve all just come off of extreme highs and gotten clobbered in the extreme opposite direction.
It’s quite obvious that your generosity in providing your market analysis provides some degree of personal gratification. It’s why we all do what we do. What’s more, your goal to help liberate as many of us ‘regular’ guys by providing the means for some financial freedom in this lifetime is commendable. It’s not everyday you find someone willing to stick their neck out for others.
I can only imagine the backlash of emails from people still raw emotionally from the recent unforeseen smack down.
I think we all need to recognize how fresh this experience is and how Gary must feel. I just wanted to put that ‘on the record’ and say thank you. Regardless of how much of a draw down I experienced I’m still grateful for being in a position to expeience one in the first place so thank you, Gary.
trader Dan Nor actually warned about it on friday in the king world wrap up….
Thanks Pima, Bob, JH. I appreciate it. I have been out of the pastor role for a few months now. I guess the quick way to put it is my emotional well just ran dry. Too much watering your thirsty people and not enough filling up your own supply is not good. People sure have alot of problems and it’s great to be part of a solution (and of course I see myself as working for God on that) but I needed a break before I broke.
I guess I just think maybe Gary’s heard enough and doesn’t need any more extra burden. I’m sure he’s as perfectionistic as anyone on the board and feels a strong responsibility for us. He wants to help us dig out, so we need to stop piling on more on top. Just my 2 cents. Y’all have a great week, watch out for bear flags!
Gary, i just now realize what happened with smt premium site.I’m not happy at all for this.I perfactly agree with jammer, elaine and felix and other that absolutely need to know your guideline and not a “standard” vision.Thank you for everything.
Gary,
Thank you for the “model” portfolio allocation information. That is the type of guidance I find useful.
Best,
Elaine
Big POMO operation May 9, 10, and 11. I don’t see how the USD can rise against these events.
disclaimer: I’m very bullish on the beaten down and oversold metal.
Wav_Ridah,
I noticed that too, three more days left on the most recent POMO scheudle of some of the biggest daily invidual fed purchases on the schedule. It seems this could help assist the USD form a swing high and retest the 08 Lows. I hope this is the case. So far so good DXY down .30
Regarding the GC swing high.
If we just consider the pit session, GC made a marginal new low on Friday.
The Thursday post pit sell-off was very quickly reversed after the 4:00PM equity market close with a nice 17 point pop to 1390 as soon as Asia opened.
Assuming we trade above the 1398 value during the pit-session, would we consider this as a swing high?
The reason I ask is that it might take a few more sessions to take out 1522. If the expectation is of a marginal new high (1600), then waiting for a break of 1522 would mean that we are buying when almost 40% of the expected cycle swing (1462 to 1600) has already happened.
Would you rather not pick a bottom after 4-5 days (given the cycle timing tool), instead of waiting for a swing low which in this case is quite some distance away from the cycle low?
Also the EUR fell so hard 4.25% On Thursday and Friday (Two big up days for USD). It appears after the emergency meeting on May 6 in Europe, word is already getting out that the Greece Crisis is under control (For Now) s the EUR bad news will start to dissipate (As can be seen a little already in the Asian Markets tonight). If the EUR fades the greece bad news throughout the next few days, that should also assist the USD Swing High and start another descend to 70.
check
Gary,I am happy with your service and my advice is that you should not make any significant changes.Many people acsept their losses as your mistake.I totaly disagree with that.Everyone should be responsible for his own activities.
Keep the good work!
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Aviat,
I think I would base that on what the dollar does next. The only way Gold makes a new marginal high to 1600 is if the Dollar turns around and starts heading towards 70. If gold keeps trading above 1500 and the dollar starts tanking then I think I will jump in feeling that it is on. Hopefully we can see this sign before 1522 so we do not miss out on 40% of the ride as you mentioned . At this point its still too early to tell.
I think Gary’s initial target of $1650 gold will be met but it sure has been/will be a rocky ride getting there.
I like your optimism Rob L.
Pretty uncanny chart of the CRB
He comes up with good charts. Easy n interesting.
Based of this past weekly declines AGQ can’t go below 180 this week. Some consolation for those still in it.
The idea that Greece might leave the € and print its own currency seems unrealistic. Who in their right mind would make loans to Greece and accept payment in drachmas?
Greek drachmas sound like instant Weimer hyperinflation.
I hear some have access to 24 hour trading. Could anyone respond as to whether they do or don’t, with whom they trade, and how important they think it is to be able to do this? Thanks!
Good morning everyone – a new week has begun!
Hey Gary, no worries about the AGQ exit, figured it was probably all a rush as you were coming back from your trip. Last week was definitely a whirlwind and a vicious one at that!
Here’s my two cents as a subscriber on this question of model portfolios.
Personally I’m mostly interested in Gary’s thoughts on timing in terms of where we are in the cycles and his level of conviction at any given time on different scenarios in play.
Beyond that I am also interested in what instruments he likes (AGQ, SIL, etc) and in what proportions between them (eg, percentage metals vs miners). I think Gary could keep it simple by just referring to a few levels, like no position, core position, all in, etc.
But it’s up to each person to translate what that means into percentages for their portfolio. For instance, “all in” on PMs for some people might only be a small percentage of their portfolio, whereas others it might be as much as there whole portfolio.
Personally I find the discussion of leverage and options interesting, but I haven’t gone anywhere near that as I don’t really understand options. People that are going into complicated trades or instruments that they don’t know enough about, only have themselves to blame.
My view is that if you don’t understand a trade – in terms of what you’re investing in and how the particular instrument works – then don’t do it. If in doubt, keep it simple.
I just hope that some people’s ill-considered choices don’t translate into noticeably less information for the rest of us. But I understand where Gary’s coming from on this and he’s got to do what’s responsible in his view.
Anyway, onwards and upwards!
I am reading in a book that options are for all investors. Mostly they are used to hedge. So using options maks it SAFER.
It’s a pitty Gary won’t buy puts with the model portfolio. I looked forward to it to allocate a small portion of my account to learn.
Silver is really adding insult to injury here.. Pretty big rebound.
Gary,
How many depreciating $$$USD$$$ for your pricey aggressive portfolio recommendations service?
in the last 4 weeks ive slept about 3 hours a night, my hair fell out, i got sacked from my day job, i hit the refresh button on kitco app 2656 times, my missus left me,and my golf game went to shit in a silver lined handbag.
apart from that everythings ok, thanks for asking
Clarkatroid – the nice thing is you don’t blame it all on Gary!
I can’t understand all these people giving Gary a hard time over their losses. I lost a ton, but I’m still ridiculously ahead of the game since I joined Gary’s service 2-3 years ago…
Here’s hoping your gold, err golf, game gets back on track during the A-wave!
The comments which are starting now are really curious. Gary I want to thank you again for sharing your work. Every statement in the public reports the last weeks was very clear. Nobody could forcast this drop but your warning was always there. Some traders here were taken over by greed and paid the price. And now you are discussing a risk portfolio? I hope this will not change the fantastic maybe sometimes conservative guideline of this blog!
Peter, you’re right. SLW CEO did say 50, and my mental note was to sell 48.It will be interesting to see what he says on the conference call.
Jablong,
The SMT analysis will stay the same but from now on it’s going to be up to each individual to decide how heavy they want to be invested. The model portfolio will give everyone a base to start from and if you want to use an ultra fund instead of GLD that will be your choice. Or options instead of shares.
lowtax, i dont blame gary because its not his fault
Bruce,
Enough that almost no one will buy the service… and if too many people do then I will raise the price.
Hi Gary,
As you said Gold might test previous highs, is it a good strategy to exit some Silver on these 5-6% up days like today’s pre market move and convert to Gold.
V
V,
We should get a strong enough bounce that a daily cycle low is clearly discernible. If that bounce forms a bear flag I will start exiting all positions. I will note any changes in the model portfolio.
So far today’s action is looking very much like a bear flag forming.
I would really feel a lot better if gold would test the lows.
50 dollars from the low on day 3 of the new cycle.
Nice.
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Correction; make that day 2
What’s the earliest we can confirm a bear flag is in?
It would actually be day 2 and until gold forms a swing it’s hard to confirm we’ve seen the bottom.
Give it time Gary… we shall have a bottom tomorrow or Wednesday. Gold has a hard time rallying over 1% in one day.
All in due time.
Bottom is def in in my book.
I meant we will have a swing tomorrow or wednesday!
Geez!
Beanie,
What happened to that cute little doggie ?
That picture always made me smile
🙂
Be careful about becoming married to the idea that gold is going to make new highs.
Silver has clearly cracked and the dollar looks like it is putting in the 3 year cycle low.
If the D-wave has started the first rally will be the one that keeps everyone hoping. And that hope will prevent you from seeing your exit.
If this forms as a bear flag everyone needs to be prepared to get out.
Gary, by the same token;
The dollar looks exhausted to me, and the chances of it rallying beyond the 50DMA is slim to none,
Silver is way too volatile to label as ‘cracked’ its simply not a good gauge. You yourself have said that we should only use gold to see where things are.
All this talk of smart money doing this and that is absolute rubbish if one were to see the open interest numbers in silver.
This is no D wave yet, and who sells into a cycle low anyway? who ever did, will regret it, as always. Even D waves have cycles and bounces.
This C wave is not over, and I am fully invested (with leverage).
PS. In my opinion, the bear flag, if formed would be a trap, since gold doesnt rise like it falls.
Gary,
Would you be so kind as to indicate the top and bottom target prices of the potential bear flag range?
This will help know “when” we breakout to the top or “when” we break lower.
Thanks a lot.
Gary,
How many days does it take to form a bear flag?
Thanks. Forjan
I reviewed my personal trading notebook this wkend, thought I’d share my past to help some feel a bit better…
An example of what I had done was that I “married ‘stocks because I knew they were good companies…but that doesnt matter when heavy selling comes in ( we just saw that).
1 example ( It broke EVERY sell rule I had , and I emotionally ‘hoped’ this great company could recover ( BUT it was a D-Wave).
In 2003-2004 , I rode GG from $10 (July 2003)to $17 to selling at $11 (April 2004)
It broke the 50sma (My Old SELL RULE) bounced ( I “HOPED” it’d recover, (but they really RETEST the 50sma) crashed to the 200sma. YAY! Support! When the 50sma crossed BELOW the 200sma…that was a HUGE sell signal for me, but the stock started climbing…I “HOPED” it’d recover… CRASHED to $11.
I Turned several 80% gains to 10% or less,even losses that yr…and started a notebook a couple yrs later, reviewing ‘trade confirmations’ for ‘hints’ 🙂 I was crushed .
Won’t be selling my puts(used as a hedge only) today…staying neutral in my metals at this point…if this continues, I might well just stay neutral down through the bottom of this…Ah well, I am certainly not trying to squeeze the last drop out of this orange.
Does anybody know any good blog games,while we wait…how about blog chess? Or tic tack toe? lol
Changed my icon to reflect my new investment strategy…
Oh yes,
on a 10 yr chart now, that looks miniscule since GG is $50 now ( and I’m not sure if it split since then either, that would be $100). So as Gary says, in a bull market, the timing mistakes are corrected with more time. But it hurt then–so your hurt now may not really hurt later (unless you needed the money now).
Clarkatroid,
If you are telling the truth, I feel for you. Hang in there and try to keep a clear head.
BTW – I think you are lying about the # of kitco hits. That is only 95 a day.
When I’m not at the house, it’s like 95 per hour for me. 😉
Good call on the model portfolio change Gary. It certainly was too aggressive for the average investor. I have no issue with it personally, as I deviated from it frequently to suit my comfort levels. I will still use it as a relative benchmark to my own. (As in “ok, Gary is 100% in now” etc)
To those that are in the process of doing a bear flag analysis,
On the daily, we have a trendline bottom of about 1482 for today (which today’s bottom is above it). Our high so far today of 1510 believe it or not looks to be right at the top.
So, if we break above 1510 and hold, to me it looks like the bear flag is lower probability. 1482 also should hold and to be honest, we don’t want to even see a single print down there.
I haven’t tried changing the scope from daily, maybe it will be clearer on a 4 hour or similar.
Test
im only jesting hotrod, trying to bring a little light hearted humour to the blog is all 😉
not lying about the kitco though lol
Gary,
Looking at first chart, I see
2004 D Wave
2005 D Wave
2006 D Wave
2008 D Wave
Last Chart – C wave peaks in 2014.
So D wave would be 2014,2015…
Why would next ABCD cycle be so stretched? Any other interpretation possible?
Thanks
Veronica,
Thanks for the update on your system!
Gary,
regarding your no price is too high for your portfolio rec service: 😀 😛 🙂
Clarkatroid,
further to Kitco, there is a quick and easy downloadable program – Kcast – for live prices which appear on the task bar near the clock and icons – no need to refresh 🙂
http://applications.kitco.com/supportcenter/windows/windows-support.html
with very kindest regards, rose 🙂
Alex,
I haven’t received that email yet. Do I need to send you the email address again?
Are we wittnessing an international/global currency war in progress?
Overnight Asia market, USD down and being sold, gold up and being bought.
Into the NY opening and pre-market USD being bought and gold being sold.
This isn’t which billionaire has the biggest @#$% anymore, this seems like a game of cat and mouse (chess) between central banks.
PIMA
I sent it. Hmm, I will resend. I know one person got back to me that they got it, so I thought all did.
Let me try again.
Alex,
After the kind of massive gain gold has put in over the last two years it’s going to need to consolidate for quite a while before the next leg up.
I’m not really in the camp like Doc of a continuous climb higher.
I think D-waves are critically important to shake out the retail crowd for as long as possible.
Clark,
You could move to Montana and be a country song. Hang in there dude!
Thanks Guys but I’m 24% up this year, granted not 110% which I was last week, but it’s only may.
So any sympathy is misplaced
Many thanks Rose, but the k cast task bar won’t work on both my pc’s though,I think there’s a bug in it, I get the main program but not the task bar live price, unless I missed something?
Two things about my short dollar signal from Friday:
1. Strangely it exists on UUP but nor $USD. I have not seen that before and am not sure what it means. The Euro buy is clear. Today’s rally maintains the sell on UUP.
2. The times when this doesn’t work is when the trend is super strong (like after the crash in 2008, when I got two an SPX sells that meant nothing). Has the dollar crashed enough to mute the effectiveness of the signal?
Apologies for one other item Friday. I got a buy on silver Friday, but we so disgusted I didn’t post it (and figured no one would want to hear about it). In retrospect I should have to help those still long. Today’s rally already fulfills it.
DG,
When you mean already fulfills it do you mean it hit the target?
Long 25% GDXJ, 16% QID, 10% DUG, 8% GLDX, [12% EUO]
Short 7% SLV
Cash 22%
[new position]
Aaron,
Agree. Run some straddles. I had agq puts which covered most of the downside.
Good luck.
There’s no precise target. Since they are short term signals it means we have popped enough that it did what the signal suggested would happen. Generally I look for 1% plus. Silver being more volatile I’d expect more, but we already have a lot more.
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DG,
Thanks for the update on the Dollar short/Euro long trade.
I sold 33% of my DGP at 47.06. I am leaning towards lightening up until things become clear. Clears my head and reminds me that I do not have to swing unless the pitcher makes an error. I have no trouble buying higher once things are clear and have no temptation to buy higher or lower until they are clear.
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DG
is your buy signal on EUO a short term one or is this your entry to follow the rise in US$
RLK
PAUL
If you want to delete that email address for privacy, I got it.
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Alex,
I’ll take a copy when you have time,
Thanks
[email protected]
I’m with Doc and Aaron. For all the damage done to the US, gold is only at 1500 in $’s, with talk of it tracing back to $1100-$1250. I see a surprise upswing to $1700 to $1800, putting $2000 into people’s thoughts, forcing some real action in the US; and then maybe a crash back to January prices.
The silver people have not given up on their Comex theories. They will try to test it at least one more time. To them it has become a moral/religious type battle…i.e. they’ll fight to complete exhaustion.
There’s real fear out there. People won’t stop buying until there’s higher prices, political hope, or there’s another event that decapitalizes them and forces them to liquidate
I’m 40% in now dgb, looking for a spot to move to 80%
Alex,
You should start a subscription for it.
Alex, me too if you don’t mind
[email protected]
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OH sorry Traderlady, delete yours too
Oh, and I’m also young and have a super high risk tolerance. I moved to ugl at silver $49 because I had AGQ Calls
Count me in with Doc and Aaron.
The miners are just getting started!
Took some profits on AGQ this morning.
James
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My thinking is we will close the gap at 235. Then could back and retest the low of 180.
Just be prepared if that comes to fruition.
From James Turk
James Turk – “Silver Will Hit New Highs in a Matter of Weeks”from feed/http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/rss.xml
With tremendous volatility in gold and silver, today King World News interviewed James Turk out of Spain, and subsequently Turk sent the following piece below exclusively for the KWN blog. When asked about gold Turk remarked, “I’m taking my cue here from the mining stocks. The XAU once again held above the 200 level which has been the bottom of its trading range. That suggests to me that both the mining shares and gold are sold out here and due for a big bounce.”
Original enclosure (King World News – Turk 5:9:2011.jpg)
Poly, I was just thinking the same thing. Alex, maybe you could charge a really high fee for your high-risk trading rules, but a cheaper fee for the average-investor rules.
😉
I don’t see anything to be done today so far. I won’t chase metals after last week. Maybe we can drift lower and test those lows. If so, that would be my entry for a shorter term bounce in which I’d also take profits.
Hold times are shorter for me going forward.
S&P downgraded Greece to B. USD reversed, EUR slide continues.
DG, what about your signal?
Pretty unconvincing weak volume action today
RLK: The 2 signals came independently (but not surprisingly) and are each short term.
Got up to redwine if you guys want to delete.
Dollar still advancing. It’s traded above the downtrend line for the past couple of hours.
DG, is there a dollar price that will invalidate your dollar short signal?
Alex,
I would be so appreciative also.
[email protected]
doc,
if you are here, can you tell us How Messed Up Citi is?
Robert
That weird to hear Turk talk so confidently, even Peter Schiff thinks we might see new highs soon, saying the lions share of the correction is over.
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Thanks DG
RLK
Interesting. The dollar is acting as if a bottom is in. Fighting through my sell signal is rare and happens most often during a recovery from getting smashed. What is also interesting to me is how the PM’s are up despite the dollar rally. Maybe European money flooding in? YOu can see why I sold 1/3 my DGP. Things seem quite unclear right now. Up? Down? Sideways? Test? No test? Silver? Gold? Who the hell knows. Happy to watch with mostly cash. Am having a decent year so far and would like to keep it that way.
Pima: No. Going higher just strengthens the signal. If I play it (and I have not played this one) I just decide at some point that it has failed. Sorry, I do not have precise rules for these things (maybe Alex can write something up for me!)
Heading Gary’s warning Gold may not make any new highs, while selling to clear out accounts I noticed:
The Leprechans are out scooping up DITM GLD options.
All my GLD125 options were sucked up when I sold them today at higher price even though GLD was at much lower price.
ok–got up to HKC
should’ve charged a dime, I could go get a free coffee 🙂
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Hey wise guy DG
Rule #3…raise stops to protect gains / prevent losses? 🙂
Alex,
What’s your read on the silver miners at today’s prices?
I’ve been watching some of my favorites such as AG, EXK and Revett which was listed today on the Amex as RVM.
They are up strong for two days in a row … thinking I should have bought in last Friday, but I’m a short-term silver bear right now.
If I want to get back in have I already missed the boat, or do you see more upside ahead?
Still not sure I trust this move in silver, but a 15% gain in two days would have been nice to catch!
Thanks, DG.
I agree that things are not clear here. Dollar UP, PM’s also UP. A lighter position looks like the way to go for now.
Alex,
If you wouldn’t mind please sending me your rules:
[email protected]
Thanks!
Got it Felix
I wish someone would come back on and say these rules really suck !!!
I gotta run soon, and dont want people posting their emails and leaving them if they need privacy.
It didn’t take much for the dollar to start heading down last night. Today it is working hard to move up on the Greece news. Not sure I believe that the bottom is in.
at ease,
what do you mean the options were bought at a higher price, but GLD was lower?
Alex, could you send me copy also [email protected]
Dollar/metals can and do move together for short periods of time, shouldn’t read too much into it.
Gold is obviously finding its cycle low and is simply ignoring the dollar. This cycle low is an important trading strategy that should not be overlooked due to recent carnage.
For those who continue to look for gap fills on the 2X ETFS like AGQ, I caution you to step back and learn more about what you are trading. The market could absolutely care less about a gap fill on a derivative. The long term price targets of 2X & 3X ETFS is close to zero. The reverse split is their friend. 🙂
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Gottahaveit
I still own AG and EXK and GPL and did buy more last week, But I was expecting a bounce only for now ( unless things change).
more in a few minutes
I agree with Gary on this one.
This really does look like a bear flag as 1. The dollar has now officially broken through it’s multi-month downtrend channel and 2. This is now the second day of the bounce and again hui/xau are lagging huge with big hammers on the charts.
Alex,
Can you please try again to send it here [email protected]
People who want privacy can use http://10minutemail.com
Alex,
May I have a copy of your rules also? Many thanks.
[email protected]
hey alex
you mind sending me a copy of your rules?
[email protected]
Thx
NOT
GLD was ticking at $146.50 and lower I got the high for GLD options selling over $147 in GLD pricing.
Alex
You can post it on a public web page and share the link
Here one:
http://scratchpad.wikia.com
PC,
I assume it’s the difference in the premium value on those options (JULY), but happy with what i got today to clear out accounts. I had asked previously if we had time for July options or should I sell now with the prices I can get. I never got an answer, so sold for profits now as Gary advised don’t get married to GLD (Gold).
jlinks,
The 10 minute mail is pretty cool. Thanks!
This was my thoughts on Silver selloff. Its really a bounce and then continue down ( from my view SO FAR), but these can change in time…but for now I bought more last week (AG) to play a bounce to the 20sma
http://www.screencast.com/t/c6lLqCiy8AX
http://www.screencast.com/t/IfEl0ZJyS
Dont look at this if you are overly bullish silver…Its a bounce to me.
After last week’s run, days like this make you wonder if it’s time to sell and wait or jump in and buy more.
at ease,
Nice going. You should see some premium on July options since it’s only May. However, options that are that deep in the money will likely have very little premium left in them. Right now I’m showing about 32 cents of premium on the July 125’s
MrMiyagi, I agree, I didn’t know what I would do today, but going to take today’s highs as a gift and clear my acounts for now. I want to wait and see what is going on and what direction I will trade when the clouds clear.
ALEX,
Very interesting, I think most of us have this bounce pegged at 42$-ish.
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The line in the sand for the dollar is $76. If we go higher than 76 than we are going to be making a higher high which means that the 3 year cycle low is in. I doubt we are going to close above it though, so I am in the camp of a dead cat bounce for gold which would last roughly 2 weeks.
Thanks PC, just lucky, as soon as I posted they were scooped similar to the buys we experienced with AGQ a bit back. Strange…, figured it might signal something to experienced traders.
Miners not doing much relative to metals.
If this is a bounce, it’s a weak one.
Alex-
Sorry I can’t support your request to say that your rules suck. 😉
To the contrary, the trade risk management practices that you have framed are absolutely essential.
Thanks for sharing so selflessly.
Researching a small company called Standstorm Gold, using the SLW type model of financing gold miners for future gold stream royalty. Their board for a small company is very experienced and it’s being run by the former SLW CFO. They have some nice mines on board and are now cash flow positive.
Anybody have any research or opinion on this company?
dollar index is getting close to double resist @75.32, and short term overbought. eur is approaching horizontal support @1.42 which is also the 50 sma. Euro is very oversold short term. I think a bouch to 1.46 is on the way. We will take one day at a time 🙂
I see a couple [longer-term] strong positives for silver coming online:
1) http://www.zerohedge.com/article/sprott-launches-physical-silver-mutual-fund-will-likely-soak-much-marginal-silver-inventory
2) http://www.zerohedge.com/article/hong-kong-mercantile-exchanges-1-kilo-gold-contract-end-comex-gold-futures-trading-and-bang-
$dollar , oil, gold, silver all up.. strange day..
Something I learned from Gary;
Gold can smell the coming weakness in the Dollar and is shrugging the rally in the USD off 🙂
I am now long Euro.
Farm Girl posted this a while back:
Dollar up, Stocks up, Gold up – Economy looks stronger, but inflation fears
Dollar up, Stocks up, Gold down – Economy looks stronger, no inflation problem
Dollar up, Stocks down, Gold up – Safe haven reaction to geopolitical problems
Dollar up, Stocks down, Gold down – Deflation trade
Dollar down, Stocks up, Gold up – Inflation trade and hyperinflation trade
Dollar down, Stocks up, Gold down – Geopolitical problem resolved, reverse safe haven trade
Dollar down, Stocks down, Gold up – Inflation raising corporate raw materials costs
Dollar down, Stocks down, Gold down – Stagflation
I’m fairly confident we will see something that is easily discernible as a daily cycle low. That means a healthy bounce. I doubt it will top in less than 5-10 days. So there probably doesn’t need to be a decision made today.
i am thinking gold & silver overshoot to the downside last week.. short term bounce?
Hi,
Alex, I know you’re trying to leave (as always) but if you don’t mind as well to send me your rules.
[email protected]
Much appreciated 🙂
I recall about two weeks ago that gold/silver were going up and so was the dollar.
Then the dollar reversed and fell.
I don’t know if it’s still the same game here but I will keep a close eye as the momentum is different now.
A higher close today in PMs should drive the overnight market higher and hopefully give a leg up for this week.
Unless gold takes off real hard, this is a bounce but cycles might be still right.
Alex, have always appreciated your opinion, esp. on GPL, one of my largest holdings for two years now! Hate to burden you, but I’d love to see your rules, as well: [email protected]
Here is my GLD chart that I first posted April 25th.
http://gyazo.com/391ec166520cfb8e4f6575683f2690d8.png
To me….., it still looks constructive.
Any comments?
With everybody here requesting Alex’s rules makes me want to not feel left behind 🙂 I’m at Ravaru at gmail.com
Thanks Alex! 🙂 btw, why don’t you post them here or in a wiki like previously mentioned and just share the link?
Sign me up too Alex
[email protected]
TIA
So late in the timing band, already $40 or so above recent lows, less than 1% away from a swing.
I say we’re already a few days into the next daily cycle and many will start chasing again. Too many people still shocked from the hit they took, but will snap out once they feel they are missing this next run. That will likely be an opportune time to cash out with all recent losses more than recovered 🙂
Poly,
I agree 100%, I have een it in other markets.
Gary:
“I’m fairly confident we will see something that is easily discernible as a daily cycle low. That means a healthy bounce. I doubt it will top in less than 5-10 days. So there probably doesn’t need to be a decision made today.”
Perhaps the final low is not in? might wee not drop sharply for a few days and that new lower price is where the 5-10 day bounce starts? We are lat, but a few more days down is not off the table, is it?
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“That will likely be an opportune time to cash out with all recent losses more than recovered :)”
Actually didn’t mean to imply recovering AGQ losses, sorry, don’t see that happening.
Alex, I’ll appreciate if you can send the list as well. thanks
[email protected]
Alex,
It appears that most of Gary’s subscribers like your rules.
Would you ask Gary to publish them on the premium site?
Thanks.
Hey, I just got Alex’s rules and found the golden wrapper inside!@@#$
Step 1: Alex’s Rules
Step 2:
Step 3: RICHES!!
As always, I kid.
Check out this chart of silver bouncing off the long-term trendline.
http://gyazo.com/3ebb65eabce8d02d2734c8a8608a2a59.png
Gold bounce off support trendline.
http://gyazo.com/7effa7d4e8a51b2a28286be19bd6f096.png
Hey Alex,
Could you send a copy to [email protected]? (it’s a junk/spam address I use when sites require one…so don’t care if it goes public)
Thanks,
Mike
Speaking of rules, I am adding this one from Vestervest:
“never allow the market to take back more than 1/2 of your gain”
Hello Alex,
Appreciate it if I could receive your rules as well. Thank you so much! [email protected]
Alex,
Don’t mean to pile on but please send me a copy of your rule to [email protected]. BTW, new to this site and premium member now for about two months. Great community and lots to learn here. Looking forward to making money with you all.
Kingfisher (Bob)
Holy Smokes!#@
I just read Alex’s trading rules and my bald spot grew over! Also, I’m feeling amorous!
Ok, I think I’m done. Slow day. You know I love you Alex.
Can anyone who already received the rules from Alex do everyone a favor and post it here http://scratchpad.wikia.com/
and share the link?
But jlinks, if someone does that, how do you expect me to entertain myself for the rest of the morning?
Gary, why don’t you count this low as an intermediate low, I mean it certainly has the intensity and percent drop..
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If we break above this 36.19 level and hold. Consolidate for a day or two. We should get a nice push up and a chance to exit any long positions if so desired..
on slv sorry
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If you look at just the GLD chart on a three month time frame, and ignore silver’s parabola collapse, it looks similar to the last daily cycle decline.
It dipped under the SMA(20,1d) in mid-March and did the same last week. It is bouncing out of it now.
Gary,
A while back you warned the next cycle low was going to be brutal and we would be convinced it was the start to the D-wave. Is this what you where talking about?
Alex,
Thanks for sharing.
I’ve always liked the Paul Tudor Jones quote “Losers average losers.”
thar she blows…slv up 5.74%
OK
I totally lost track of who I emailed ( its like 100 so far).
Thanks guys, but there just ‘observations’…mistakes I’ve made or even ideas that I’ve read and said…”Hey, Thats where I screwed up”…like moving stops down as the price drops so I wont get stopped out…whats up with that?? 🙂 But I’ve done it long ago, and Lost.
I would upload it to my ‘screencast’ acct and just post it, but its on Microsoft word, and I cant seem to pull it up for viewing. Not sure if it will allow it.
I am a bit crazy busy off and on here this morning, but I’ll try to figure it out.
Goldman Sachs believes that the pullback in major commodities prices last week may create an opportunity for commodities to stage a comeback by the second half of 2011.
Anybody like to make comments on this?
Hi Alex, would you mind sharing your rules with me as well?
[email protected]
I am just creating my trading strategy as I think it helps massively to write down what I want to achieve long term.
One of the rules was not to buy overstretched conditions which has helped me to stay out of AGQ and stay in 100% cash…
Thanks a lot
Mike, true, but consider the volume on the gld, and you have to figure silver in somehow,, and then I think it is necessary to also look at the HUI chart, and what it says. I would not take my idea off the table…..?
So… it pretty much all hinges on the US$…
Maybe people will realize that Bin Laden’s “death” was bull. That’s what seemingly started the upmove.
In other news, SLV volume is headed way above the average 56M shares. In the last few days leading to the downturn, it went from 30, 50, 80 188 200 million shares/day.
What’s going on with the dollar?
Thanks, Alex. I would also like it. I don’t think you will be able to “view it” online unless it is a flash paper, or you recreate it in googledocs and post it.
Googledocs is a good option sharing documents.
Best,
Elaine
Gary,
I think your target for silver in a D wave decline, which you see coming, is way too low. I don’t believe it’s going lower than $27 ever again during this bull. Even $30 might never be violated again. There is too much acknowledgement of the silver trade now and too many buyers ready to jump in at corrections. It would require a near catastrophic financial collapse with a flight into the dollar (which might never happen again) to send the dollar that high and silver that low. Also, I believe that the time frame for corrections and consolidations will be much shorter for the remainder of this bull; the time frames for these corrections will tighten up to even get the ascending curve in the charts and the price targets most of us are expecting. The realization has been sinking in that much higher prices are in the cards for silver. It is only the short term traders that add volatility, because they don’t know why they are buying silver and hence they move their price targets all the time. The underlying bias in the silver trade is way too bullish to let prices drop as low as you are predicting.
By the way, your chart of prior D waves in your most recent post does not show price levels. The 2006 price drop for example was around 45%. Last week we dropped about 32%. I wouldn’t be surprised if we’ve already seen the full extent of the drop. I expected that we might go down to $31 dollar and we still might, but that is where I would see the low for the year (not withstanding a possible intraday flush out). Even if we were to slide 45% from the top, that would take us ‘only’ to $27, which I don’t expect to see for the reasons given.
Hmm, maybe it’s over, that was a quick drop.
Basil,
I can guarantee that a D-wave in gold will take silver far below $30. You are banking on there being no D-wave.
FWIW:
This level of dollar retracement happened early this year. $DXY had an 87% retracement of the 11/30/10 high of 81.44 on 1/10/11
(81.31). We’d need to get to 75.80 ish to match that.
MrM,
Bin Laden had nothing to do with the dollar. it was extremely oversold and sentiment had reached multi year bearsish levels. We just ran out of sellers.
Alex,
Can you send me a copy or your rules, please ?
[email protected]
Thks.
Carlos
DG,
That’s exactly what I would like to see.
What I don’t want to see is a bear flag. I have no idea how to gauge where to get out before they break.
Gary,
I don’t think we can discount the effects of “good news fabricated at the right time” effect either but I know the oversold conditions were present.
oa92000,
read operations of a stock operator or msnbc business news on a daily basis and you will laugh when you reread your last comment
You seriously think we sat around for years waiting for the perfect time to “catch” Bin Laden?
Mr M., why so sceptical on death of OBL? His bodies right there on the bottom of the ocean for anybody to see!
Gary’s posting higher risk trade positioning is of very high value to me and to the blog readership.
Sentiment was obvious among the newbies and main posters here.
That was and will be priceless to me.
That so many here are sharing openly their views is incredibly valuable (oops, repeating the key thought).
Last Thursday, the number of posters abandoning their positions and posting so was the flip side of the prior week’s postings.
Should Gary remove his aggressivity from subscriber and reader easy access, I think there will be a chilling effect.
This blog is the most unusual I’ve seen. It has been so due to the frankness of you, the real market participants which has been facilitated by Gary.
Gary, thank you for hosting this forum and your service.
Oh I see you don’t think he’s dead. Seems kind of a tough con to pull off if he all of a sudden shows up again.
Nah, he’s been dead for years.
Conspiracy theories, one of my quirks. Admittedly, not as strong as cycle analysis though but still fun.
A break above $1520 – $1525 is huge here. Not only does it likely give us a swing but it also looks to be a nice breakout from a potential bear flag on the 5 minute chart.
It seems like someone wants a nice orderly climb from gold in todays new york action.
Gary: A marginal new low is one thing, but if gold has another leg down now, the bounce off the daily cycle low could wind up short of these prices, right? I am not predicting it, but cycle theory does not really predict levels, just timing bands for the low. I am trying to separate out tactics from clear cycle predictions.
Violating the daily cycle low seems part of cycle theory, so when we bounce we will have a clear stop implying the D wave, but levels are just guesses, right? Intelligent guesses, based on past behavior, but guesses only. Please clarify if I am missing something here.
Dg
I’m haveing trouble following your thoughts on the dollar.
Would you summerise
Thanks
…how much can one really understand about the market when they fail to grasp the parameters of which it operates…in the classic operations of a stock operator..The time 1900-1920’ish…One important point that you should note is they continually released BS news all the time to help “shear” the stupid money. It is no different today. News is fabricated and released all the time to help institutional investors and politicians
DG,
You are correct cycle theory has nothing to do with price levels other than cycle pivots.
I don’t really want to see another leg down. I just want to see a marginal new low and sign that buyers stepped in at that price level.
I would feel much more confident about a sustained bounce at that point.
An oversold bounce after a sharp drop isn’t that inspiring to me. It just say we temporarily ran out of sellers, but they are likely to return at higher prices.
Mr M,
If Bin Laden were dead, why wouldn’t the Republicans have trotted him out prior to the 2008 election in an October Surprise?
Steven, did you see this?
“ALEX said…
Hey wise guy DG
Rule #3…raise stops to protect gains / prevent losses? :)”
IMO, this is the psychological hurdle you didn’t put in place. It’s clear your position was so large it would itself cause a vacuum as you exited if done all at one time. IMO, this is a trading therapy issue which should have been now “cured”. Stops must be in place. Your open gamble, unprotected, and amplified by the damage of “size” is a common trading issue.
Years ago, I had a trading friend who traded sugar. He took his account from 100K to 4MM. I traded with him nearly daily, as friends, each on our own computers, phones accessible to us.
That trader was so large in the sugar market at that time, he couldn’t liquidate in a down market as he would have blown a hole in the price.
So, I watched over a period of 2 to 3 days as he “lost” a million a day, and still he would not liquidate.
Of course, he blew out his entire account; he was sold out by the broker.
He refused to place sell stops.
The directional shift, also from up to down, was action paralyzing for him.
I personally envy your wealth, and as you’re a very bright man, I’ve confidence that while more conservatively, you’ll find those balls out moments and seize them again, with a salvage trailing stop program.
Your thoughts about trailing stops will be much appreciated.
Thx for posting here.
discreet shopping,
lol, good one!
Gary,
Do you really believe we couldn’t find OBL all these years? Try hiding out and see how long it takes them to find you Mr. Savage!
And that he was directing “al qaeda” all these years while hiding in what amounts to a closet is ridiculous. People will believe anything, as long as their tv told ’em so. 🙂
Anyway, no trades for me today so a good day for other discussion.
So many people relying on the $USD to forecast gold is confusing to me. The $ value is based on a basket of currencies with the € being 58% . The $ mirrors the €. So when the € does poorly compared with the $, the $ “rallies.” But is the $ really rallying when both currencies are being debased and what is actually happening is that the € is doing worse than the $? The following chart shows the inverse relationship of the two currencies.
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.html?FXE,$USD
So when pundits say the $ is sinking/rallying, it is always in relationship to the €. Both currencies have major problems and the fundamentals for both indicate downward spirals. Thus most writing pontificating about the $’s strength or weakness is only in relative terms to the €.
But the prevailing practice is to use the handiest measure without regard to its accuracy. Most of what is written about low inflation (say 1.5%) using the core CPI when the reality is the CPI is designed to under report inflation which is actually 6-8%. The same is true of government unemployment reports showing 9% when the reality is it’s around 16%. Most “experts” use the handy government stats while ignoring reality.
So what to use for projections for the $? Use the $USD (inverse €) or to look at various $ currency pairs? I suppose the common use of $USD is something of a self fulfilling prophesy as it supercedes what’s really happening. But I think the better practice is to also look at the $ paired with various other currencies. Is there an alternative way to measure the $’s against a broader variety of currencies than the current € dominated basket?
We could see the $USD rise against the € while the fundamentals for a debasing $ (and €) remain intact. Those are the same fundamentals that project rising gold prices. So we could see the $USD rise, the € fall and gold rise. That happened not so very long ago.
Ben Davies called the silver “crash”, and is now back to buying silver, physical I believe.
What I don’t believe is that the minute we got him we wouldn’t broadcast it from every rooftop, just like we did.
So no I don’t think we got him years ago.
I sold into this bhounce this morning. After an 80 percent gain sine the lows of late July, and with me feeling so uncertain, I decided to follow one of my mantras, wheb in doubt, get out.
There is plenty to be made in the future, but I think I’m done for this C-wave. Now looking for my oppty to short the Euro, buy somwe treasuries, and short the SP500 and Silver.
F
I have to say, selling last week was, um, “not ideal,” to put it euphemistically, but I feel very nice and clear-headed now as I watch the confusing action with a mountain of cash.
Douglas,
Not me, I’m basically ignoring the dollar as it’s had little predictive value of late.
Take it with a grain or two of salt, I just find it
suspicious. Too many loopholes.
“I don’t really want to see another leg down. I just want to see a marginal new low and sign that buyers stepped in at that price level.”
But the cycle analysis should tell us that probability at day 40 we should be forming a swing right here, not moving down to test lows, burning more days in the process?
Also IMO it’s NOT an oversold bounce, the gold decline into a potential cycle low was normal, being it declined some 5% over a 5 day period. But when viewed through the horrific Silver experience, it looks as if it was much worse.
I’m already sensing a feeling on the blog that many are cashed and worried they are missing this run.
Doug,
There are times when a dollar rally is signaling deflation. The rally out of a three year cycle low is usually one of those times.
A lot of people are saying bear flag this cycle low that, but watch the open interest on gold and silver June and silver respectively. If these do not fall, prices will grind higher.
Three POMO’S this week
Too many people have written them (gold and silver off) already for them to just sink.
I have already clawed back most of my gold option losses by positioning and removing hedges from Wednesday on.
Silver is more problematic for me (Gary did not get me out in time 🙂 )but I have six more weeks. Option spreads will work wonders.
I actually think that Bin Laden might have had something to do with the drop in Asian trading on Sunday night.
The drop was instantaneous and huge. It was clearly one big holder slamming on the sell button. Normally big money is smart and sells gradually into large volume. Here somebody was dumping literally tons of silver into very light volume and moving the price against himself.
What this suggests is that when the OBL news first leaked out, some hedge fund panicked and sold indiscriminately, trying to beat the news break a few hours later.
Since gold’s daily cycle has been extended to such an extreme already don’t the odds say that the pivot is in?
Poly,
That bounce can be an oversold snapback rally before the next daily cycle down begins. Which is exactly what it will be if a D-wave has begun.
All I’m saying is to stay sharp here. There is risk that the D-=wave as begun and if one is married to the idea that gold has to make new highs then they are going to get caught in the D-wave.
Gary,
I don’t find that any analysis in your newsletters actually supports your downside target for the D wave. It would require a price decline similar to 2008 to get there; but the crash of 2008 you suggested was a once in a life time event. D wave or not, there is no way silver will get down to 20 or 21 before this bull is entirely over. Waiting for that target will equal missing a buying opportunity that will come long before that.
The miners are pathetic. This is not a good sign.
Gary: Thanks. My point then is that this distinction should be made in general. That is, saying, “If the previous daily cycle low is broken we are in the D wave” is a different sort of claim than “There is no way we are not going to hit 50 in silver during NYSE hours.” One is part of the theory itself; the other is conjecture. I think it would be a service to be emphatic on cycle claims, and less emphatic on tactics. You are a good trader but, frankly, so am I and a few others here. I cannot hold a candle to you in cycle theory, however. I will surely keep myself clear on distinction I just drew going forward, and I believe other EXPERIENCED TRADERS might benefit from noting this difference as well. When it comes to tactics you might even say things like “it seems very likely to me” rather than “There is no way…”
basil,
It may not go to 20 or 21, but it always breaks below the 200dma.
$25-27 is a lock, in my mind.
I agree about the miners. Not interested yet, and even if they pick up steam there are lots of knife-catchers that would like to sell and get out whole.
PS: Actually I don’t believe that silver will ever go back down there, even once the bull is over, not in our life time.
Bob loves Hawaii…
Would love to hear about your option spread strategy, to lessen the risk on silver options.
Gary I agree there is a good chance its a snapback rally, but in a new cycle, not the existing. Your analysis on the coming (likely current) is good advice.
I’m trying to say a lot of people are sitting around in shock or waiting for a pullback and may end up chasing this move higher because I believe we’re already in the new cycle. If it’s a new cycle, then we are well on the way to to testing the Gold high’s as you predict. I’m riding that expectation now and get defensive around the high’s.
DG,
The silver target had noting to do with cycles. I just thought traders would keep buying until they hit $50 and then probably a little higher to let big money out of their positions.
DG, are these day-trader picks that you are posting here? Can you at least give us a hint if they are based on 1 minute charts, 5 min., 1 hour, etc.?
Short term to a day trader is a 1 minute time frame, intermediate to a day trader is 5 min, and long-term is 1 hour. When you say they are short-term that normally means a number of days up to a week, intermediate would be several weeks, long-term several months.
Is there a dollar price that will VALIDATE your dollar short signal?
“What is the market telling us”? is what they always tell me. The market doesn’t talk, so it never tells me anything.
Got to be pushing against the top of the trend line by now.
Basil,
Actually as I pointed out in this post every D-wave of this entire bull market has retraced at least 62% of the preceding C-wave. From the current high that would take gold back into the 1100’s. Do you really think silver will hold above $27 if gold drops to $1200?
Even if this time is really mild and gold only retraces 50% that is still $1250 gold. Again it seems unlikely silver will be able to hold above $27 with gold down $250.
if we can stay up here we should and get some volume flowing in we should have no problem at least testing the 37.66 area lots of clear space …
Gary,
All the D wave advice requests are coming from action junkies.
Months ago you were very clear to the readers that your view of the D wave was to walk away and wait for the A wave as by then, your readers would have made meaningful money, and would again starting at the A wave.
Now, the adrenalin is flowing like Kool Aid, and they want shorts and and and for the D wave.
That’s really good to know insight.
We’re witnessing mass delusion response to the high they were experiencing for the period prior to the reversal. It’s fascinating how fear and greed play out, as well as the feelings of abandonment, helplessness and hopelessness.
Boys and Girls, the profitable action is to sell psychotropic drugs to the junkies here. Time will heal all wounds. Time is not for sale and can’t be purchased.
The A wave will start the fortune generators again.
The way to play the D wave is small handed and stand pat until Gary announces the A wave. Or, recognize that it’s a bet not to be taken.
Everyone’s greedy. Drugs for sale.
Did SLW report earnings today? It looks terrible given the move in Silver today
SLW reported great numbers.
David,
$27 is the low end of my expectation for a price decline, as I mentioned earlier, so we both might be right on this one.
In my previous post I meant that we’ll never see $20 or $21 in our life time again. $27 is a possibility, but I still believe there will be buyers coming in even before that.
I believe that what we are currently experiencing will, in hindsight, look more like a 1987 crash for stocks with a fairly quick bottom and recovery.
What made you want to look up emphatic? Please tell us where you read or heard it (including the quote, if possible).
For those of you trying to trade the currency pairs, welcome to the world of competitive currency devaluations.
I’m not a currency expert so take this post for what it’s worth. However, it looks like the powers-that-be (central banks) are trying to defend certain ranges for their currencies, at least in the short term until the fundamentals ultimately win out. For USD/JPY, it appears as though ~78-80 is that level and the EUR/USD level is ~1.40-1.45. Japan’s modus operandi is direct intervention while the ECB and European governments are using psychology/sentiment (no mention of interest rate increase by Trichet last Monday, Germany again talking about the EU breaking up this morning, etc). Clearly at 79 and 1.5 respectively, we were bound to see some efforts to weaken their currencies and a corresponding dollar bounce. For this reason, I would not be too quick to look for cause and effect for every new piece of domestic economic data that is released (ex. reaction to NFP numbers).
Ultimately the fundamentals will exert themselves and we will break out of these ranges, but until then, I personally wouldn’t try to trade against the trends at the upper and lower bounds. In the future, however, we can probably assume that the ECB will need to raise rates to combat Eurozone inflation, the Fed will likely need to undertake some form of additional monetary stimulus, and the yen likely remains the most undervalued of the three.
David, I posted that obvious correlation last Monday morning, to be met with blank stares. In reality, it was just the first whisper of “Fire!” in a crowded theater. Lots of things could have been the trigger, or spontaneous combustion. The obvious (and ridiculous) fear was that a dollar rally would ensue. It actually did, but as nothing has really changed in anything that I can tell, it is either transitory because it was too early or it will stick because it was time anyway.
Psychotropic drugs have different uses and are broken into four major groups: hallucinogens, antipsychotics, depressants and stimulants.
Anyone notice the low volumes in this bounce today?
interesting action on the SoS list today. Both GLD and SLV are on the list, numbers are small so far, but what’s interesting is that in the block trades column then numbers are positive. IMO that indicates that the large traders placing block trades are buying, not selling.
Gary,
Best defence against the bear flag is trailing stops under the last lows on the hourly or H4 charts I find.
I also set targets to take 1/4 profits as the 50% and 61% fib retraces from high to low.
If the 61% gets busted then usually the tl break test has failed and the next leg down begins.
Al Brooks in his book said the best and usually most rewarding trade is the bounce back after a sell off post significant TL break. Just needs closer attention. I just hope the big money doesn’t sell in the final market hours!
Grim
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free spread trade, from the venerable moore research, long aug gold/short sept silver:
http://www.mrci.com/client/spreads/strat/s3549.php
Man, do I enjoy this blog…
Thanks to all.
Dan,
Yeah, the low volume on GLD is a bit worrisome. SLV however has larger than normal volume. It is lower than the volumes of the past week, but those volumes were extreme! By the end of the dayGLD will probably end up with a volume that is above average, so maybe it’s okay.
Alex, please add me to that distribution list. Thanks!
[email protected]
Dan,
GLD’s volume is slightly lower than average while SLV is 1.5x the average so far.
PST: THANKS for the currency post. I found it valuable. I’m moving toward learning more about the movements of currencies as a way to understand the movement of gold.
just noticing that myself dan, I think that bods well for accumulation at these levels and hopefully a little push back above 40
The H4 shooting star off the H4 20 EMA on the chart is ominous for silver.
I have placed my stop 10 ticks below its base
Also,
DIA, SPY, QQQ all lower than average volume.
Shell shocked buyers a little reluctant to enter back in tomorrow might be a better day encouraged by today’s slight rises.
Basil, I agree that corrections will tend to be faster and less predictable going forward. But I don’t agree they’ll necessarily be less severe. Always, since the first rock was sold 1 million years ago, the easy way to make sense of the market becomes diluted as major players adopt the new strategy and other big players try to exploit those using the strategy that worked before. Why I think cycle theory works is that it relies on humans being human. But what I’ve observed since I’ve followed Gary for about eight months is that there are many head fakes that cause something to happen that’s “never happened before” like a meek end of a C wave. Knowing that C waves “always” end with a very strong wave means there will be more strong hands to stay invested while the smart money rushes the doors. There was that major head fake at the end of December when we thought the intermediate decline was finished, but we were fooled. I started to feel thrashed, which is what big money loves to inflict on others.
It’s always a moving target; live and learn. But the cycles will continue and still, I think, give us the best long term results. The obvious reason to me why the D wave will likely be severe is the withdrawal of the punch bowl by the fed and the strong dollar rally — I wouldn’t underestimate it’s effect. The wild card is an early announcement of major QEIII which I think is low probability.
The bottom line of all this is pretty obvious to me, too: don’t short this bull market!
Hot Rod: I agree in spades. This is a great place where LOTS of expertise is being shared. Thanks to all.
Gary,
from your target of 1650 in gold to say 1150 in gold it would be a 30%+ decline. That was the type of decline we had in 2008, and that was an Armageddon trade on everything including gold. Gold is in fairly strong hands now, I believe, because everyone who was out for a quick buck traded in silver for the past 10 months, so I don’t see that type of decline. Even if we’d already be in a D wave, we have entered a stage of the bull where dips and steeper corrections will be bought with much more vehemence and conviction. 2006 saw a 20% decline, which still worse than what I’d expect in 2011. The demise of the dollar is just more obvious and irrevocable than it was in 2006.
Nice bull flag on SPY, this should support gold and silver today.
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Chris B, if the 10 day is above the 30 day (Daily), I am selling weekly calls above my strike price of my June Calls. If it falls below, I am selling 1 strike below.
I have 147 and 150 GLD June. Right now I have my second 151 sold weekly trade on. I will hold until expiry, doubtful we get there by Friday.
If we get a swing low, I will remove that strategy and monitor to exit the calls completely.
I hope that helps.
Gary: you wrote “The silver target had noting to do with cycles. I just thought traders would keep buying until they hit $50 and then probably a little higher to let big money out of their positions.”
Yes, I get that, but my point is the level of confidence in such a guess should be lower than “If we beak the daily cycle low we are in the D-wave.” I agreed with your thought, but it was just a thought. I suspect your confidence in your guesses (which makes you a good coach for hand-holding the newer folks) is dangerous when the guess turns out to be wrong. “My best guess is…” would distinguish levels of confidence. You seem to have two possible outlooks: “No way in hell” and “I don’t know.” You are great in admitting when you don’t know something, but some nuance might be helpful regarding tactics.
For others: I am not ragging on Gary. This is an important distinction I believe. I am not blaming him for my or anyone else’s reduce profits/losses. There is simply no way to learn from the past without trying to see if something was done wrong. If not, and it was a black swan, leave everything just as it was. But you can’t even know that without examining the data. I actually wrote to Gary asking whether I could post something like this and he said “LOL Go right ahead—I have a thick skin.” I have a commitment to getting better at everything I do, including trading. My second commitment is to try to help others. If I have irritated anyone with this post, I am sorry for that, but I’ll have to ask that you just get over it and move on to the next post.
Ben,
you are right that there will always be wild cards, but I think a delay in the announcement of QE3 is already expected and therefore priced in. At the same time everyone is expecting the Fed to continue QE at some point, not too far out. So that is going to be priced in as well. As for the dollar, how strong that rally will be, and how vertical or horizontal it will be, remains to be seen. I don’t expect a 2008 type run up and therefore I don’t expect a 2008 type decline in gold and silver.
Overall, I just don’t foresee the same level of bad news that we had when gold and silver were forced into such a massive decline; and that is what it would take to push down PM prices to levels in the very low 20s.
PS: Meant to say ‘push down silver prices to levels in the very low 20s.’
Dizzy: These are not day-trade signals because they can take a few days to start to work. I use them either for a trade or for an entry point for something i have an opinion on. For example i got a buy on SIL at the exact day of the low in late January. There you just buy it and hold for months. It basically says EWe are so stretched now that the next move is in the opposite direction.” The rest is up to you.
I am selling today, and will be for the next week. I’m going to take my time, so I don’t get caught out if the rally proves stronger than I think and catches me on the sidelines.
Whether the dollar has bottomed or not, we are in the final inning. The easy money has been made; what I see on this board is a lot of guesswork. The probabilities are not favorable right now. At some point I will buy UUP in the hopes of picking up a few points of return in the D-wave.
It’s going to be a lot easier to make money in July/August.
David: You might consider buying EUO rather than UUP. Very similar idea, but the euro seems doomed to me.
MrMiyagi,
(Don’t want to start an argument among other commenters here, so I hope you all will not jump on me or MrM. As the saying goes, move along, nothing to see here… 🙂
Can you share the info that led you to your conclusion that bin laden has been dead for years? Links or books or whatever.
Thanks!
If you’d rather do it via email, you can reach me at [email protected]
pC,
There’s a link to infowars on my 9:29am post.
Also, just google Bhutto, kidney failure in conjunction with the name.
For starters…
at ease:
I noticed the same about AGQ options. I think it is more likely that there are people who sold these options, and who believe that the swing low is in so they want to go flat. I noticed that wild pricing near the market open, indicating that it was decisions taken over the weekend. Within a few minutes the price of the options went down significantly.
So far the PM price action is consistent the bearflag scenario. Higher prices are attracting sellers and while lower prices are being defended, the longer we stay without a pop, the larger the chance that the slide continues.
How are others here on the board planning to play the D Wave? I am disappointed that we will not be privy to Gary’s put options strategy anymore so I guess a discussion of how to play the D Wave would be informative to me and other fairly experienced traders.
I am thinking long the UUP, maybe some DITM UUP September calls for a little more juice. Thoughts?
Basil,
Sometimes it’s better to think in terms of time and not price.
I have no idea where silver will bottom, but I do know that August will be a better time to own it than right now, based in seasonals and a coming dollar bounce.
DG,
I think a lot about EUO, but it’s leveraged and inverse, both of which carry risks.
Now is a time to preserve capital for August.
Fair enough, David.
USL and ZSL might work it timed correctly. Might be a great way to loose a bunch of money to?
OT: That Bin Laden dead and Bin Laden with kidney failure etc were all disinformation. That Bhutto video is a slip of tongue as the person who took the interview himself clarified.
He was kept at Abottabad for the past 5-6 years; that area has excellent doctors since it serves the Army.
On a related note, I do not sleep very well when I realize that Pakistanis are going crazy when it comes to producing fissile material. They have more nukes than UK!! Assuming that it was just rogue elements of the ISI/PA which were involved in sheltering OBL (and not the entire establishment), what is the guarantee that such rogue elements will not lose some plutonium?? The Japan saga shows that you do not need a working bomb. All you need is to spread the radioactive material in a major urban area and you are done. Imagine if some place like London or Manhattan or Tokyo becomes unlivable because some Jehadi delivered Plutonium. Yet the world is not doing anything about it. That OBL arrest should have been a wake up call but no one seems to care.
ZSL is a mug’s game. If your timing is even slightly off, and it will be, you will lose money.
Mr Miyagi – I am constantly amused and troubled at how willing some people are to buy the “world is a giant conspiracy” garbage perpetrated by infowars and similar sites. I sure hope that’s not where you look to get your info on what’s going on in the world. jmho.
DG – thanks for persisting in trying to make the points you have been offering to Gary on improving what is already a terrific product. The distinctions are subtle but important. I am constantly impressed by the trading prowess and insights of many on this blog.
Alex, please send rules to [email protected]
Gary
I understand the whole model portfolio change but I am disappointed. Anyway I was hoping to know if you are still holding your 38’s on SLW. If so could you just post when you get out of that one. TIA
James,
I like to keep an open mind instad of blindly believing everything “leaders” say. It would be assinine to think that we are told the truth 100% of the time (or even 50%).
All in good fun.
Poly,
In your posts you said, that you think swing low has already occurred (as I understood it). Can you share with us: are you fully invested? Do you prefer gold to silver now?
” Bob loves Hawaii said…
Nice bull flag on SPY, this should support gold and silver today.”
agree with you, how do you play this?
bgu, tna ready to go..
SLV gap at 38.2
Can anyone who has Alex rules converted, send me a copy in Word, Notepad, PDF or just by email. I have limited programs on this little acer.
Thanks… please send to:
[email protected]
@abc,
I believe the cycle low has occurred. Swings can not be “guessed” we still have a little work to get one.
I’m fully invested in seeing gold rally for 10-15 days of this new cycle. Fully invested meaning as much as I’m willing to commit to the trade, not in terms of overall allocation.
At this point I won’t no part of further draw-downs. I hold no Silver.
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Gary,
Prior to last week’s correction, you have warned us that we’re overdue for a daily cycle correction, where we shall see gold tagging lower bb, break trend line and rsi at oversold levels. At the same time, you wanted to see a USD rally because sentiment on USD was already at all-time low and it would be difficult for USD to test 08 low at such bearish level of sentiment. We got all those in the past week and everything played out as you expected. However, you seem to have grown a lot less confident about the chance of final parabolic C wave move after things played out the way you wish. May I ask what you saw in the past week that caused the change in your game plan (other than bigger than expected drop in silver) and what you need to see now to conclude that the D wave has started? Thanks
for those who do options, question:
even though GLD is up more than 1% today, the June GLD 155s are in the red.
is that a tell that gold is headed south?
Gary,
Few weeks ago you said, that correction before parabolic wave would be severe and everyone would think that D-wave stared. Also, you noticed that dollar tops on job report or one day after.
I understand that you took a huge hit (like most of us), and many people didn’t help you (accusations etc.). I think you mood has great impact on your report and decisions (avoiding silver etc.).
But honestly: what’s changed? Silver took hit of 30%, but anything more? Fundamentals didn’t change…
gsTroll,
I see June 155 calls up 13 cents.
You’re probably looking at the GLD 155 weekly calls.
SB
I noticed you posting about ignoring the $ several days ago. Got me thinking. Is the price of gold going up or down based on the relative strength of the $ to the €?
PST
Nice summary. Thanks. The current rationales for the €’s weakness are mind numbing. Greece will return to the drachma? Instant Weimer hyperventilation. Greece doesn’t have the money and will have to restructure or default. Ditto Ireland at bank bailout costs of over $120,000 per household. This is common knowledge and, as you say, is not driving the €.
Eric,
Silver dropped much further than I thought it should and the dollar has rallied much stronger than it should if this was just a daily cycle that was destined to roll over quickly.
Very nice bounce on oil, this thing is acting so well despite this so called dollar strength.
nuance–
Function: noun
: a slight shade or degree of difference (as in color, tone, or meaning)
@ Poly, Wes, fubsy_cooter, MrMiyagi, Hot_Rod, jhnewman, Pima Canyon …
Please click my profile link and email me, I have a personal question I want to ask you.
“is that a tell that gold is headed south?”
It’s a tell that these options are ticking to expire worthless….
Grim & DG, Considering your posts today, would you sell SIL & SLW today and wait for the A wave? (That’s all I have left, and no interest in options or D wave downside).
Alex, or anyone who got Alex’s trader rules, could you please forward to: [email protected]
Hot Rod,
You really said it. After a couple of years stumbling around in the dark, this is like coming into the light!
PST, no sorry, nothing by colony. Just like ducks as they paddle like hell underneath, but look like they are gliding on ice on top. So just been partial to them by observing them. 😉
Beanie bought ZSL on Thursday:
http://bettertrading.blogspot.com/2011/05/imminent-crash-in-silver.html
Kate. Yes. Preserve capital. SIL and SLW may go up, They may go down. IMO opinion it’s better to have money for the best bet, which is the A wave. If you knew you could only place one more bet this year would it be now with those or later, after a multi-month smash? At the very least we are very late in the game.
DG, what is EWe. Elliot Wave something?
Today’s UUP candlestick is black now.
Dizzy. EWe stands for “I make typos.” It should just read “We. are so stretched…” Sorry.
By the way, here’s one I am not sure I posted: I got a sell on UNG at 11.75 on 4/28. It went against me for a few days and I had no predetermined stop. A nice drop since then. In fact, it is close to a buy at which point I will cover and MAY go long (though it erodes terribly so is a better short than long).
Hey Gary,
Thanks for all you do. I’ve made a lot of money in silver and even done well with stocks based on your calls.
I’ve found that even with stocks trading parabolic moves is extremely difficult and the optimal window to get out is very slim. Too early and you miss a chunk of the move up and too late and you give up plenty of gains.
The only clue I had with silver in retrospect was the number of friends who were asking me if they should buy. Oftentimes, this has marked a top. Of course it is obvious IN RETROSPECT.
Hello Alex,
Could you please send a copy to
[email protected]
Thank you.
Hey Alex: Keep the rules, just send me some of the money I gave back in AGQ! 😉
(Actually I’d love to see them too but I am waiting for the hubbub to die down before emailing you about it.)
Mr Miyagi, thanks for your temperate response to my intemperate comment. I spent my first (of two) careers in the government on the foreign policy side, I know how it works, and I’m comfortable that most of the time it is operated by well-intentioned, intelligent people who are trying to do the right thing under difficult and complicated circumstances.
I’m a member of another investing blog where one of the participants seems to spend his whole life on infowars, and takes everything they publish as the gospel truth, to the extent of disbelieving any and every source that contradicts them. It’s really very scary.
Trust me – they would have nailed OBL sooner if they could have, and it took a monumental effort to find him, even if he ultimately was hiding in “plain sight.”
Sorry to everyone else for the OT stuff.
DG, Thanks a million. (No pun intended.)
DG: I do not get it. Are you giving up here? The way I see it we are going to bounce hard here for the next couple of weeks.
so is this re-start of C-wave or just a rally in D-wave? Where are we now?
James,
Not a problem.
OT is part of life, we can’t spend most of the week conversing with one another and not talk about other things.
Concerning OBL, the US had nothing to gain by dumping the body. If I found the body of a Sasquatch (bigfoot), you can bet I would not cart it off to the Pacific to appease the gods. I’d be on the phone to the highest bidder.
@Poly
Thx for response!
Plenty of juice left in this baby, IMO.
DG,
Come here buddy, let me give you a hug. I just made enough on your Euro long to buy a month’s worth of groceries.
Don’t worry, I only risked 1/2 of 1% of my portfolio.
SIL up 2.87%
GDXJ above 2.0%
Miners are doing well
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E,
That’s the $10,000,000 question.
James,
Why wouldn’t “terrorists” just meet by the shore now?
If I were trapped in longs, I’d push this bounce for another couple days before exiting.
Mr.M, imho the US had EVERYTHING to gain by burying his body at sea. Among other things, had he been buried on land somewhere, it would have been a martyr’s site and a rallying point for terrorists. There’s much more to be said on this subject that I think you would find compelling, but this isn’t the place for it I guess.
More on topic, now I have to decide whether to sell my remaining position in AGQ into this bounce, or let this play out for a few more days. Decisions, decisions…
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James,
I also have AGQ, bought back in Friday. I believe that gap at 235 will get filled. That would be the time to unload. I also believe we will retest the 180’s. A double bottom will form.
That will be my buy point for the final leg of this C-wave.
James
DG
I didnt know you didnt get them!
I sent them to you first , you and a few others whose emails I already had and already wrote to.
You gave me 2 emails one day, I sent it to the non-business one.
F.W.I.W.
I just sold 1/2 my EXK and 1/2 my AG. I just bought AG Thursday for a trade.
I’m confident we will get at least enough of a bounce to form an easily recognizable daily cycle low before heading back down.
Plus like I said in the weekend report the dollar should test the lows and maybe break them before a sustained rally.
FWIW the Bollinger band signal came at roughly $42 on silver. This is a very high expectancy trade so the odds are about 94% that silver will close back above that level sometime in the next 13 days.
freaking oil up big today
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Haggerty,
I thought that I’d get a break on filling up my Geo Metro.
Hi Alex,
Could you please also send a copy of your famous rules to me ([email protected]) ?
SB, good point, but which shore?
94% chance holy beeswax batman…thats high
lol
Alex,
I would be willing to send the other version out to future requests to relieve you if you need the help.
Thanks!
GARY
Based on your wkend report, any chance that Friday and todays leg up in metals can still go down to the recent low, then rally hard? ( with the dollar fumbling around for a low).
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Gary,
What if you wrong again and silver breaks out to the upside. The technicals support that this is a real possibility. I was/am long silver with slv calls while covering with agq puts. I was closing some call positions on the way up and closed all my agq puts on the collapse. This is a much better strategy than all-in long and with just having slv calls.
Alex,
Hard to say on that one. The rally looks to be strong enough to stick but it also has a chance of forming a bear flag.
We should know one way or the other by the end of the week I would think.
Any rally out of a daily cycle low should rally at least that long (I hope)
james r, I agree that would be a good point to sell my remaining AGQ (at the gap fill around 235), at least based on current trends. Fortunately I sold most of mine by front-running Gary when he said he would sell silver at $50, but I did buy some back on the decline.
Maybe I should change my handle so we won’t be confused?
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This has the feel of the first week of a new cycle. IMO. In light of dollar strength too.
Michael: I sold 1/3 of me DGP. I’m not sure what “give ing up” means. I have certainly not given up on making money! I no longer have a strong opinion on whether gold will make a new high or not. I am just looking at upside vs. downside, degree of confidence, etc. If I told you that a fantastic money making opportunity was coming in 3 months, you might consider making sure you had the maximum amount of money available to take that trade. If I were really “giving up” I’d sell a lot more than 1/3, and if I know gold was going down I’d short it. I missed a great move in cocoa two years ago and it didn’t bother me a bit. If I miss one in gold, that won;t bother me either. I think more people lose money due to the desire for “action” than any other reason. And i still have 2/3…
Jammer,
Then I will miss the rally except in my calls and SIL and SLW positions which I’m still holding.
If a swing is formed I may take a position in DGP but I will be ready to exit on a moments notice if it looks like it’s forming a bear flag.
Catbird: No hugs here or you’ll make Alex jealous. Glad the FXE trade gave you nice pop.
(I probably ought to lay off teasing him, but it’s too much fun…)
Alexi: Sorry to hear about your account. Hang in there, learn, and use the lesson to burn humility into your brain. I always get in trouble whenever I think I am smart! Yeah, that turned out to be a pretty good call on oil last Friday!
Thanks Gary
I was asking because I have am uneasy feeling “holding” with the volume up off this bottom Friday and today getting weaker on most miners.
SLV, AGQ, GLD , GDX If we run out of buyers on a bounce , it doesn’t bode well. BUT, a sell off to retest the bottom soon on lighter and reset may work.
I think we ran out of sufficient buyers vs sellers last wk ..Wondered if it still fit your plan “cycle count” or more likely bear flag. thx
EX: SLV was down on 200& 300 million 4 days in a row..
Today up on 100 million? Ouch.
who’s ready for 37.66 ?
Just heard on the news that all the hedge funds that dumped silver moved to Oil, so where will it go when they dump Oil?
FWIW as an example of a hedge:
I sold a GLD 149 call and bought a GLD 146 put for 6c each against my core position (expiring this Friday). That means I agree to sell my position around 1530 with the right to sell below 1500. I see resistance in my charts at the 1530 level; hence the protection. 1533 is the 62% retracement of the entire drop and I expect a significant wall to be put up in that area (volume profile also suggests an area where sellers will be present).
Seller’s are premature and will regret and buy back in. Fundamentals trump all. Most of you sound like a bunch of addicts looking for your next quick, cheap high with Gary acting as a dealer. You’re like the down and out in most major cities that huddle together to make yourselves feel better, in this case trying hard to justify your moves. This blog is your street corner.
Visitor – and you are the snobby old lady that drives by the street corner and looks down on poor people, making herself feel superior.
visitor,
If this turns out to be the beginning of the D-wave that attitude is going to cost you dearly. Much more dearly than the silver investors that got caught last week.
I would keep an open mind if I were you. Gold is very very deep into it’s C-wave and even if it’s not finished its very close.
Do wish Silver would take a break though, rather worrying to be moving like this. Suggests speculative action or more short squeezing, as apposed to any orderly accumulation.
Hey if that’s what get’s Gold up to fresh new high’s before rolling over, so be it.
Anybody buying in to the close?
@Visitor,
Addicts we may be, junkies we’re not! I can afford my hits.
“Fundamentals trump all”
If you’re invested for the next 3-5 yrs , yup. If one just got in 2 weeks ago , it didnt feel like the stellar fundamentals trumped all.
And in the D-Wave…NO ONE will come on posting , YAY , fundamentals trump all 🙂
bought some more agq average at 209
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Alex,
can you send me your rules please. My email:
[email protected]
Thank you very much…
John Burbank’s thoughts on gold (down til August)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=1rcCiyGbm2k
James,
No need to change your handle. We also have a Jim who post here as well.
James R
slv now up 7.34%. nice.
Rick4779: Very funny! I love guys like Visitor who post so they can see themselves in print. Useless and self-serving. Oh well. People get their jollies in lots of different ways I suppose. It is really great we have so few of them on this blog.
We just need to ignore there post and they will not come back. That is more politically correct as well.
Hi Alex, I accidentally deleted your email and can’t seem to recover it from my “deleted” folder. Can you resend the rules to [email protected]
Thanks again!
Yeah, hit ignore button:)
Maybe still a bit shell shocked, but just sold my DGP and many of my SLV calls. I’ll be traveling for the next week and don’t want to have to worry.
Still have my GPL, EXK, SLW, GDXJ, and various options, including some calls: July GLD 140s and some July SLV 38s (I should have sold the latter last week, or really the week before, but got greedy) among others. No puts. North of 60% cash.
Wanting to buy, just can’t see anything that makes me think I have to have it.
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Got rid of half of my SLW calls at40 should be a lot higher in my opinion
Just too much uncertainty, right now such that we don’t have any edge in trading PMs. Gold could form a swing low tomorrow only to retest 1462 (which would be healthier) or gold could continue the bear flag and roll over, signaling the D-Wave.
Squeezing another 200 points out of gold may be worth it to some but better to look down than up. Preserving capital for a discernible A wave seems more prudent than throwing money at speculative calls in gold/silver.
Gary,
One of the possibilities that you’re expecting to happen is that we move back down to test the low or make slightly lower low.
If this unfolds and we DO make a slightly lower low, then you would NOT consider the low we just made to be a daily cycle low, is that correct? But that would make this daily cycle EXTREMELY stretched, no? Because of that, wouldn’t this scenario be a LOW PROBABILITY scenario (just because 40+ day cycles almost never happen).
But if we move down and just retest the low, but don’t go below the low that’s already in place, then would you consider the low that is in place a daily cycle low, right?
PC,
If gold dips back down and makes a slightly lower low especially before forming a swing then no I would not consider Thursday the cycle low.
It needs to happen quickly though. This is already a stretched cycle.
Some much uncertainty on this blog is not a bad thing for gold. The previous D-Wave have come crashing on VERY high bullish % levels. This would be a first.
Poly, unless it began last week.
Hi All, If Alex is ok with it, I’d be happy to forward his “Risk Rules” to anyone who still would like a copy – just email me: [email protected]. Hope to save you some time Alex – much appreciation for your continuing the generous SMT spirit to those of us “still learning”. Many thanks, Kate
Jack
You know theres a steep fee for negligence , it’ll now cost you 100% more!
I sold half my EXK , and 1/2 AG today purchased last week. Good enough profit for a quick trade ( $17.70ish area )
Still thinking a bounce, and sell off ..or back down to retest the lows, maybe bottom for 1 more run??. I may get back in then if it looks good.
Still see this (for now)
http://www.screencast.com/t/c6lLqCiy8AX
Gone for the night- my mother is coming over for dinner -GOODTIMES!
San Diego…got ya
Poly,
Maybe this is just the normal silver outperforming gold that has been in place for this entire IT cycle.
Still holding the May 230 AGQ options, which may grow up and be somebody.
I did sell the SLV May 32’s into this strength. They are what cost me so dearly last week and I had a grudge against them.
The 10 minute email is pretty cool. If anyone could forward me alex’s rules that’ll be greatly appreciated.
[email protected]
@WES, I think they will be somebody!
@CMT, Even if it started last week, that wasn’t anywhere near the nosebleed levels you expect for a collapse to a D-Wave.
Add in both a lengthy C-wave, Dollar 3yr cycle and two rounds of QE, this would surely be a fairly benign top and crash.
KATE
Thanks..I’ll be out anyways!! That’s very nice of you… I dont mind.
Poly, I agree and am positioned for further upside. Also, would not the BLEES rating be lower, as well if this is a D wave starting?
Watch the open interest, if it remains firm, we move higher. POMO tomorrow.
Everything seems to be working out according to plan.IMO, this is a great place to add to gold.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/houseprices/8503313/US-house-price-drop-accelerates.html
Still reckon the bull in PMs has finished? The USD is getting more and more worthless each day.
Debt to GDP ratio will soon be around 95% which is the globally accepted danger level before funds start to want their money back. This will only get worse and I will stay long gold for a while just yet!!
@Veronica,
I agree, Shakeouts often leave folks dizzy and tentative to jump back on.
Now if we can get near the recent high’s, that would be a place to be on guard and watch for a sharp reversal.
@Kate,
Your email address is not working, Please send me Alex document at [email protected]
Thank you…
Hi Kate,
That is nice of you to help ALEX with the requests for his Trading Rules .
I really appreciate the community spirit on this blog and also ALEX’s generousity …. (and his sense of humor !)
grim: I don’t think anyone here thinks the bull in gold has finished. The only question is whether we have started a few months of mean reversion. The debt/GDP level has no bearing on that specific question, I don’t believe.
Bob – POMO – Fed Cash Party tomorrow? Are you anticipating dollar drop/PM surge on account?
Isn’t Congress raising the debt ceiling this week sometime?
DG – I’m doing an MBA currently and we spoke with our professor about this recently. He thinks the key level at 95% is when investors question the ability of the principal to pay back the lender. At this level major institutions get very twitchy. If these lot suddenly decide to cash in their bonds because they think it will be much harder for the US to repay them then think what that will do for the USD – and so gold, you would think, would rocket as a safe store of value?
Happy to take other views of course!
Re: Alex’s Risk Rules
Tradera: I sent a copy to your “help” address.
To others interested: the [email protected] address is working for others, and you can still use.
Rgds,
Kate
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who was asking about Sandstorm?
I believe this so-called ‘bounce’ is forming the left leg of silver and gold’s double bottom.
We are going to need two strong legs to get above $1700 and silver above $60.00
James
Gary,
You have mentioned before that the cycles are stretching. Could it be that the dollar cycle is also getting longer and what we just experienced was exactly what you were expecting and that we will still see new major dollar lows and a parabolic C-wave blow off top?
Being that the PM market is so volatile wouldn’t they become more volatile as the Bull moves forward? If that is the case, could this be right in line with what you expected, not on price or time but in the way we get to the end of the C-wave?
Sandstorm was me.
I REALLY like what I read, they seem like a little long term gem play, but there is not much out there to read on
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Pima-
This guy likes Sandstorm. He seems pretty knowledgeable about the juniors.
http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/308162-hyperinflation/61721-sandstorm-resources-the-next-big-thing
Grim,
Your professor was probably referring to what’s known as the “Keynesian Endpoint”. This is a point (often considered 90-95% debt/gdp) when a country’s debt service exceeds its revenues.
@ Poly,
I have some data I can share. Have to run now but look for tonight. Kevin
Grim, yes that makes sense, but it doesn’t mean gold will never have a down day again (or a down month). Such notions do not help with trading/timing, but they do establish whether w e are in a bull market or not.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-post-anatomy-silver-manipulation-how-low-can-it-go
great article on silver manipulation!
Tried [email protected] twice with no luck (hand entered without spaces etc)
Delivery to the following recipient failed permanently:
[email protected]
Technical details of permanent failure:
The email account that you tried to reach does not exist. Please try double-checking the recipient’s email address for typos or unnecessary space
Beanie got his ass handed to him in ZSL today.
PST / DG – agree and thanks for the debate. I guess I tend to trade out here on the weekly and monthly charts so I have a more ‘strategic’ view rather than the tactical short term view.
After an hour-and-a-half of this morning’s price action, Jim Sinclair reiterated his “gold call” from the other day. He sounds pretty confident:
**********
Dear Friends,
Today’s action totally eliminates any and all remaining concerns for the price of gold. Today’s action lights up the $1764 Angel in gold.
Technical damage always requires technical repair. That type of price action is a perfect set up for a major launch of the gold price in June.
Relax and enjoy your protection and insurance positions.
Regards,
Jim
**********
“You must think long term now before entering this silver market, because you may well get stuck with a silver position for a longer term than you may expect. But if the manipulators do press the price down below the $22.50 level, you should buy with every dollar you have available, because even though things will look bleak by then, with every media outlet heralding the “bursting of the silver bubble”, a few months later, the price will be back to way above $50 again. Prefacing the big fall will probably be a huge technical rally in the U.S. dollar, and a big fall in the stock market. These events may not happen until the end of QE-2 in late June”
ZeroHedge must have been reading Gary’s blog!!
Thanks Alex!
To be fair that ZH article is a must read – lengthy and it could play to our confirmation bias.
I will try and search for some negative silver news for balance. One should always read the news that counters your view, not agrees with it!
grim,
If you’re interested, Kyle Bass (Hayman Capital) did a series of fantastic interviews on CNBC of all places on this topic. In my opinion, Kyle Bass is one of the sharpest minds in the hedge fund world and the interviews are well worth a listen.
Before I get blasted, I realize that Bass has made some bad (or early) lately. He’s the one who advised UT to take delivery of physical gold and he’s also been shorting Japanese Govt Bonds lately (“the widowmaker”), so he’s not infallable. He is incredibly bright though and did nail the sub-prime trade a couple of years ago.
DG
Thank you for your kind words and encouragement. I feel fortunate that I got burned this time instead of the final mass parabolic move later. I always enjoy the joke you had with Alex. It’s like watching the office show everyday. You are Dwight and he is Jim. Of course Gary is the boss. He is treating us like his family, feel fortunate to be here.
Mr. T,
I don’t know why [email protected], it’s failing for you & Tradera…you could try later, or post an email address for me to forward to you (I’ll try to catch it). Rgds, Kate
Thanks PST – I will take a look – I’m a bit of a Macro geek!! 😉
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Starting adding a few slv October put options at the close(less than 1%). Fipping through gld, slv, and gdx todays rise was either on the lowest or second lowest volume in two weeks. The dollar has clearly broken out of its multi-declining channel. A parabolic move has never resumed after such a crash.
I think we will see silver up for a few more days but dont think we will see new highs until winter or next year. Will continue adding if the rise keeps losing strength.
grimweasel,
Nothing like a stupid professor. Remind him that the US doesn’t borrow money to pay off it’s bonds, it prints the money.
Until we give out of ink or paper, we will never default.
Seems like he would know this.
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Wes – agree that is the way things should work but thanks to Keynes and his ‘governments must save the day sketch’, the downturn and the greatest transfer of wealth ever has happened and robbed the common man of even greater sums!
We should have just let market forces work this out and we may have been in a better place today rather than this printed money idiocy!
Grim,
I removed the prior posts because I always make the mistake of asking personal questions on a public blog.
Anyways, good for you. Enjoy your time and learn all you can.
PST – yep I forgot too! Cheers and if you want to know anything about the course just email me on the google account!
Alexi_ now you’ve done it…I’m DWIGHT?! That’s a low blow. (I think Alex is Kevin.)
jhnewman,
Have you been following Jim Sinclair long?
And how accurate has he been?
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DwiGht, I noticed that backhanded compliment, too. 🙂
jhnewman/San Diego,
The problem with Jim Sinclair is he is a perma-bull. I have been reading him for so many years and have never heard him say anything bearish about gold ever, even short term. If you ever have a bad day and are questioning the bull market then visit his site. He will always make you feel more confident.
Having said that, he is a legend in this community.
Thanks Dan,
Very lucid observation.
So “Steve” is really Kate, now we are getting somewhere.
Katy,
Me too please – the copyc108 address is bouncing back.
[email protected]
Thanks Kate.
An interesting note on silver from Hecla Mining’s earnings release…
“Characteristics like it being the most conductive of all metals, more than copper, more than gold, the next two most conducted metals and when silver tarnishes it maintains its high conductivity. Silver is also the most thermally conductive as well as the most light reflecting elements and we can talk about a lot of the new uses but one that one that is having the biggest impact on the market is the photovoltaic or solar panels.
In 2004, only four million ounces were consumed and that increased to 40 million ounces last year and GFMS’s study says they expect it to double in the next five years times. This means that while investors in mining companies will likely experience volatility, the long-term outlook or sliver will include a far greater amount of new non-forecasted uses.”
Brian, not that it’ll get you anywhere, but the blog seems to pick-up whatever handle a person is signed into at the time of posting, so sorry for the confusion everyone, as I was signed into the [email protected] account (“Steve”). Rgds, Kate, Steve & Copyc:)
Dan-
What was the strike you went for on those October slv puts? Since we are not privy to Gary’s D wave strategy, I’m looking to see what other traders strategies are so that I may formulate my own. Any info is much appreciated! Thanks 🙂
Jim Sinclair is a perma-bull. When gold drops he just waits it out and comes out to say, ‘see, I told you it will go up”
James Turk is much more predictable, he’s just out saying Silver makes new high’s in weeks! That’s a big bold statement. He has made many of them and many of them have been spot on.
Hard to see us not making a genuine effort here to reach the high’s. The oversold levels are too deep to roll over right here and long/deep sustained corrections such as D-waves typically put the bulls through repeated torture. Already many here are talking puts as if we’re just going straight down. Fear amongst SMT’ers is prevalent, out on Kitco those boys got fried.
A good rally is in order I say.
Please send me a copy of the trading rules:
[email protected]
Thanks,
I am 100% cash for the first time in…years. And you know what? I still have no clarity. When that happens, I figure its time to take a couple weeks off. After all, if this becomes stressfull, I figure its not worth it. Its fun to ride a C-Wave, A-Wave, and even a D-Wave if in cash or short. But, hanging on every move wondering what comes next is just not for me.
The way I see it, I’m in a win-win situation here. If Gold goes higher, the setup to buy puts in Silver gets more tasty. If the dollar drops to a new low, the set up to short the Euro and stocks becomes more tasty. If Gold drops to a new low before heading higher, perhaps I could nibble on a swing reversal at lower prices.
No matter which way this market goes I get a better setup on a low risk trade.
At this point, I feel like I’m in no man’s land, thus out..But, part of the voice you’re hearing is my action addict talking myself into a calmer state at being on the sidelines. A desolate and unfamiliar place, but one which i know I need to reside at times, if I want to be a better trader. Ahhh, the mind is a beautiful and dangerous tool.
Cheers!
f
Whilst it’s great Alex has posted his trading rules traders should understand that they will have to develop and ‘own’ their own rules for personal psychological reasons.
To be able to fully understand and believe in your rules in the quest to beat ‘Hyde’ (the damaging internal voice) one needs to own and fully believe in the rules and why they were formed. Specific learning examples need to be attached to each rule so that you can reflect on why that rule is so important; it helps to reinforce the rule and make it meaningful!
So, have a good look at his rules but spend time learning in the markets and developing your own rules with lessons attached. That way you are much more likely to adhere to them!!
DG
I love Dwight! You can whip Gary sometimes. 🙂
Ok, Alex can be Kevin. He was Jim though before this black swan event.
Can someone explain why we wouldn’t play the D Wave with DITM put options on slv as opposed to out of the money put options on slv?
Obviously there is more premium on the DITM Puts, but this is also a more conservative approach to playing the D Wave event?
Any information is appreciated!
Poly,
If silver is going to make new highs, I’d like to see the miners outperform the metal first. That’s not happening. I’d also like to see more volume.
Right now silver is guilty until proven innocent.
Polly!
I think you will nail this one. I also think that we will se a rally in the next 2-3 weeks..
The problem is that most are so afraid that they will miss the entire move.
The thing is that Gary told us that the move down will be so hard that everyone will think that this is the D-wave..Look at the board now..Everyone is bearish..Afraid..
The problem is that most of us will miss the entire c-wave.
I think that silver will go to at least 42..But everyone will sell at that point so i will not be surprised if it goes higher..
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Blake, my understanding of the OTM put stradegy is buying at new highs before the the down cycle is recognized. There arn’t going to be any OTM puts once the decline begins. Two Mondays ago all the puts were in the money, no? Can anyone give me a simple explanation of where I look for the OTM puts?
One more note on Sinclair, he did sell at the peak in 80 and only became bullish on gold again at the beginning of this decade. The man knows when to go old turkey and when to go home.
Moneyman,
Unfortunately, the reverse is also true. When a D-wave hits, many people think they’re in a C-wave.
Re: Alex’s Rules Distribution
Ok, just figured it out emailing myself, it’s “[email protected]” (my “L” looks like a #1, and it’s been awhile). Huge apologies for my error. The ones that got thru must have typo’d it right. So, email [email protected] if you’d like Alex’s Rules. Duly chagrined, Kate
True David..:-)
CME just raised margin requirements for Oil. wonder how this will affect PM’s.
The dollar is preparing to do it’s spectacular swan dive into the abyss.
James
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james r,
Wouldn’t that be something!
Moneyman,
I wouldn’t say those of us who are cautious will miss the entire C-Wave. I bought my first position with gold at 700. Then a lot more in the 850-900 range. And more at 1000, 1200 etc… The C-wave is 90 to 99% over, dude. Now, there may well be a nice move from here, but hey, its not nearly as clear as it was from July till a couple weeks ago.
Look at any top. Things get really wanky. I remember CSCO/QCOM in early 2000 losing 20% in a day and then roaring back to peaks, staggering and dropping. That is what tops do. They get volatile. So, there was some easy money made here. For those of us that made it, stepping aside is a reward.
And, there will be more to come.
f
After a review of the mechanical buy-sell charts, we will need a reversal or sideways tomorrow for Gold and silver not to get daily buy signals and for the buck to get rejected on the intermediate level.
Makes sense because any further strength will give the metals a swing low, and any weakness the buck a swing high.
James R,
If that happens, there is going to be an amazing trade in risk off positions. Dollar sentiment is starting to look like stocks did in March 09. The rally in the dollar following such a sell of will be epic.
f
Fubsy, I think you are onto something here. Good writing.
fubsy_cooter, how long do u reckon this dollar rally will last?
Poly
It is funny, I was going to right the same thing about Jim Sinclair. I love the guy but don’t trade off his comments!
I have the same feeling here about this C-wave not being over. Not sure if you are saying that but I think we are going to be surprised to the upside.
I wrote before that the first day of the correction people here were too happy, almost ecstatic. They were leveraging in harder and harder. The big down day people were blown away and that is the type of feeling we need to see. Now no one believes we can get a huge move. I think we can get a huge move simply because no one believes we can.
write not ***right
Fusby,
You plan to play that in UUP/EUO, right?
BookGuy,
Playing the back side of a parabola is a very low-percentage bet.
I can think of very few instances where it paid off.
Alex,
Your rules would be greatly appreciated here as well.
[email protected]
THANK YOU!!
test
I’m with DG and Fubsy on this one.
Gary has been the greatest proponent of this C-wave so if the dive in silver even rattled him to the point where he won’t buy any more silver during the remaining days/weeks shouldn’t we all be wary of jumping back in so quickly? That includes gold as well.
David,
I’ll just do what Gary says to do, I don’t know enough to do other wise. I might risk 10% of my portfolio if I feel differently than what he does, but I paid him for a service for a reason.
I’m certain you are right, I just have this gut feeling. It could be gas. 🙂
I firmly believe the market has already priced the damage QE1 and QE2 has created on the dollar and no matter what happens in the near future nothing will change it.
Same thing happened with the annoucement of TARP. Congress passed TARP, but the markets continued to fall.
James
Gary,
How many days is the dollar’s cycle based on 20 or 40 appx? I forgot.
f
fubsy_cooter,
I’m in the same position as you. I’m practially 100% in cash, just have a few GLD calls I’m waiting to cash in.
It’s weird because I have been an “all in” guy during this ride, but I just don’t have a good feel for which way this thing is going to go in the short run.
So like you, I’m just sitting on cash watching and waiting.
BTW, please click my profile link and email me. I have a personal question I want to ask you. Thanks!
Book Guy,
I have the same uneasiness. A day like today makes me want to stay in for fear of missing the upside.
That’s why they call them sucker’s rallies.
Anyone sitting on cash, I believe will have a great opportunity in the near future when gold/silver retest their Friday’s low.
James
David, fear of missing the upside may or may not equal a “sucker’s rally.” Your basis for stating one automatically equals the other?
Eammon,
Like Gary says, the rubber band is stretched pretty tight on the dollar, so it will have to work off those excesses. I would imagine the rally would last until sentiment got stretched in the opposite direction. As far as time goes it seems at least a few months, maybe up to a year. Who knows?
David,
Yes, I like EUO as one way to trade a strong dollar. I also like DUG, SH/SDS. The XLE is setting up for a breakdown. I need to check Gary;s cycle counts for the stock market, but when the break below a pivot in the XLE aligns with a swing reversal down and a potential left translated cycle in stocks, and a swing reversal up in the dollar I’m going for it.
Atthis point, I don’t care if I’m a little early on a strong dollar trade as sentiment is so radically negative. I’ll just start small and scale in on the way up using cycles to increase my odds of catching daily cycle bottoms.
f
Fubsy: Every time you write I find myself nodding my head (your 3:47 post) . I am long a moderate amount of gold as I believe we will at least attempt the highs, but your thinking is much like my own. If we rally there’ll be juicy stuff to short while we wait for the A wave. Now if you would just lose the Dodgers cap… (j/k)
I hate this transition time, not one way or the other, c-wave or d-wave…
James,
I was referring to my own emotions, not anyone else’s. I am not calling anyone here a sucker, even indirectly.
We’ve just had a massive parabolic top break on us. The rally that follows a parabolic top is always incredibly powerful and convincing, but 95% of the time it fails. Hence the term sucker’s rally.
Gary: I think your portfolio change is appropriate. While it is true that everyone is responsible for their own trades, giving an alcoholic liquor has to also at least partially be the responsibility of the server. I can see it either way, but we know for sure that many people will go broke mimicking your personal portfolio, and those with enough experience to play that hard won’t need your template, so I think the change is probably a good one.
Oh Come On DG,
As if I’m not eating enough humble pie with my beloved Lakers pathetic showing last week. What a week. I’ll tell ya, there was something in retrograde, silver and the lakers crashed. Yuck!!
But hey, I’m happy for Dallas and there fans. Dirk Nowitsky is a class act, and they’ve been waiting a long time. Funny, with the Lakers out of it, I’m cheering for the Celtics (WTF?!), Dallas, and The Bulls. I definitely need to be in cash right now. My whole world is upside down.
f
Gotta go. Pipes just burst. See what I mean? You gotta heed the signs the universe throws atcha.
perhaps someone can refresh my memory .. didnt Gary say that the D Wave usually lasted only a few weeks …like 6 to 8 weeks ?
@ David
“Right now silver is guilty until proven innocent.”
I’m NOT trading Silver, just posted Turk’s comments.
I’m trading Gold and it never went parabolic or reached insanely bullish levels. So right now I say innocent until proven guilty.
I’m also saying that I don’t know where it is going, if its a C or D wave.
I don’t care too much at this point. I’m trading a way overdue cycle low, deeply oversold rally to new high’s, that’s it. So far it’s yielded some $50 and counting, while many are still in shock.
There are many trades to consider at any given time and I agree the intermediate time-frame is sketchy and warrants caution, at some point a discussion on puts possibly. But for now, I will take the oversold bounce (if that’s what we all want to call it) and get back my losers of last week, then some.
David,
If one can regroup and trade this rally with that exact expectation I think there is significant upside here. In fact, if we can learn from what just happened and manage our expectations better ( be a little more fearful then we were) we may be able to make 50% of what we just lost.
I think a large part of what happened is that we were all looking right past $50 silver…
About Jim Sinclair: I am no expert on the guy. I’ve followed him on and off since 2008. (I was in a chat room of some very good gold/silver traders, and I asked Andy Maguire, who is an incredible PM trader (used to do it for Goldman Sachs in London), who the best is in gold and he said: “Jim Sinclair”. Andy has since become somewhat famous as the guy who blew the whistle on the big banks for rigging the gold/silver market.)
Anyway, Sinclair is incredibly good. I wouldn’t call him a perma-bull, necessarily, but someone who seemed to be maddingly selective about what “directional information” he gave out. He would point to targets up ahead, but wouldn’t seem to give out “we’re going to be going down now for a while in a D-wave” stuff. And I’m sure he could see these down moves coming. I think he does this mainly because he knows that gold/silver is the big lifeboat in these dangerous times, and he wants people to get physical and stocks to hold them through this crisis, and not try to trade them.
I know, from his Web site, that he is giving lots of people a lot of free great advice on how to weather this hurricane, and he seems like a great guy. He seems to help a lot of people.
As for this call for approaching 1764 in June sometime, it has surprised me, because I don’t think he usually gets so specific in price AND time. But I could be wrong about this. I haven’t followed him religiously since 2008, so there are some serious gaps in my” Jim Sinclair knowledge.”
A couple of Sinclair stories though (I don’t know definitively how accurate these are):
–Sometime in the 70s, I believe around 1976 (so 4 YEARS before gold topped), he supposedly sat down to figure out how high the gold bull market would go. He did calculations based on how much debt there was outstanding, and how high the price of the known supply of gold would have to go to equal all that debt, and he supposedly came up with the number “850”, which is where the 70s bull ended.
–He also supposedly accumulated a positively MASSIVE number of gold futures contracts as the final parabola kept screaming higher day after day, and sold ALL of them THE DAY the gold bull topped in early 1980.
–He’s also the guy Paul Volcker hired to get all the Hunt Brothers “cornered silver” back into the market with minimal price disruption.
Again, I can’t vouch for the accuracy of all this, but in my wanderings, that’s what I’ve run across.
And he does seem like a positively great, nice guy, helping many, many people.
(P.S. Sorry for the long posts.)
Interesting name, jhnewman.
John Henry Newman was an original, extraordinary man.
I kind of like that everyone is so skittish, we can build a wall of worry, and no leverage for the sharks to take down. Nice steady climb all day like today works for me.
Eamonn: you nailed it (as did Le Fou when I first got here). John Henry Cardinal Newman was an early hero of mine. And when I needed to come up with my first “Internet handle” when I tried day-trading the end of the Internet boom (who DIDN’T do that?), I went for his name.
Some very well informed people on this board. In all my wanderings, nobody has ever spotted that before, let alone 2 people.
I agree Bob. These just climb while many lick their wounds. By the time they buy into the rally it’s already up $100.
I’m also become intrigued with this dollar up/gold up setup. If this can continue, we could potentially have a decent gold blow off c wave top while having already printed the 3 yr low. By havingthe dollar rally another 10 days or so and say gold at around all time high’s, the dollar could be a good 6 points from the 70.70 lows and plenty of room for a fast and furious collapse that still holds the 3yr lows and the new dollar IT cycle. Just an idea, Gary?
Fortunate for you jhnewman that you were inspired by something of real substance, and not as in porn mags as most young men do.
jhnewman,
I don’t disagree with you. I think he speaks long term on his website, but don’t look to him for short term direction. He knows when it is going to be over and knows when it starts, I don’t think he cares about the wiggles and I think only a fool would look to him for short term advice.
Also, he tried betting $1 million that gold would reach $1650 by January 11, 2011. He then said if it doesn’t make it then we will see a much higher number in June. He at least stays true to his word and never makes excuses for his mistakes. He owns them, for that alone I highly respect him.
Y’all do realize that we’re waiting for a specified trigger to buy in, right? SMT disciples, I mean. Your comments suggest we poor saps are out of luck – already.
Gary, I think the PF change is great. Options I think cloud the picture for many and unnecessarily clutter it for others. And it’s definitely more in keeping with your stated philosophy of helping as many through these waters as possible. I also want your role in our financial lives not to get overly complicated and crazy, so you can be around to help us for another five or six years. I do appreciate your work!
Eamonn: Newman had a big effect on me. I was 18, in an English boarding school for 1 year (which I paid for myself by investing my dishwasher & busboy savings in the stock market — though I don’t deserve the credit), and I read Newman’s “The Idea of a University” as I was getting ready to go to college back in the U.S. And it just had a big effect on me.
Well! Never mind. As I wrote, my words became instantaneously obsolete. Crow pie now.
TheBookGuy: you’re right. And I don’t think anybody took Sinclair up on that bet (which he started to offer, I think back in 2008). Nobody in their right mind would take that bet.
But I think he was using that bet mainly as a “motivational tool” for those who visited his Web site, basically saying: “I’m so confident gold will do this, I’ll bet a million dollars”, so that his followers would have more confidence to get into gold and just hold on to it.
Great story jhnewman. Sorry you had to experience an English boarding school.
Felix, Up until this evening report not even Gary was sure if he would buy a swing. In any case, there are many other triggers than just swings, they’re just not definitive numbers. Plus were hear to trade ideas, not only play Gary’s trade signals. Which BTW Gary I agree with not disclosing your specific trades.
Eamonn: ;^) You’re too funny. The food was the worst part.
But, as for the rest of it, I actually dodged all the bad stuff and it turned out to be one of the best years of my life. (In Norfolk, about 3 miles from the North Sea.) But I certainly know all the horror stories you’re hinting at.
A
Gotta run. Good luck, all.
jhnewman, interesting folk, the English. I’ll just leave it at that.
Gary,
Question. Why do you think we will get to $42 on the BB crash trade? I read the terminology section but I see that it is 15 days or any day that is profitable. Why then the specific target of $42? Is there some other part of the rule that it usually goes back above the BB?
Thx
The rule says a profitable close. The entry was the open on Wednesday morning which was $41.33. Any close above that will fulfill the requirements for the BB trade.
I see. Then the $42 was just a rough guess.
Any other means to guess where it could stop or would you just sell (assuming you has SLV) at $41.33?
Thx again.
If it was me I would wait and see what gold does.
CME raised oil margin requirements late today. Seeing how this wreaked havoc on Silver, could this have the same effect on oil and thus can we say that oil may not have put in it’s intermediate cycle low? just thinking out loud.
Gary,
Thanks so much, I actually laughed out loud at the comment about lighting our hair on fire. Reminds me of the time in Cleveland when the the Mayor’s hair caught on fire. Some really quick photographer got a shot of it and it’s indelibly etched in my memory.
Good humor for a Monday.
A follow-up question on the raised margin req for oil is what will it do to silver & gold, if anything.
I wasn’t following last week but did the silver raises affect oil?
I question because it seems like the hedge funds bounce back between many of the commodities especially the precious metals and oil and wonder what people think it will do to the PMs.
So far gold & silver down a bit here since the announcement but the dollar is also up a bit so hard to tell which one is the culprit.
Actually gold has been correlated to oil, so in my view it is a back handed way to shake out gold longs. It certainly stopped the AH advance.
We will see every trick in the imaginary book of manipulation to save the COMEX.
Eamonn: I’m guessing you’re Irish. My real last name: Kelly.
Yes jhnewman, I am. By the grace of God!
Gary,
Is it possible that we might see a double bottom on gold at the 1490-1500 level. It looks as if there might be some resistance at 1520 followed by another downside to test the low. If that happens, could that be a good buy entry. This is coming from Turd’s analysis
That said jhnewman, the stars and stripes is also printed on my heart, for many reasons :o)
I currently am all cash…but that BB crash trade in silver looks too juicy to pass up.
I’m thinking it’s worth risking 1% of my cash.
Kate:
That [email protected] address did not work for me either. My email is my user id at gmail.
Thanks
Evening folks!
So, if the silver BB trade is profitable with silver above $41.33, that makes the corresponding price in SLV at, roughly, a buck below at around $40.30?
I’m trying to make a plan to get out from under my SLV and SLW options at the least-painful price. I was thinking if $silver hits that profitable BB trade price, of setting up a stop there to minimize the bloodletting.
Any other ideas, or maybe Gary will work that out for us in real time so he can get out from under his options too? Gracias compadres.
Gary, you mentioned for those still holding silver you’d wait on gold. If gold doest reach 1521 to form a swing the expectation is that it may retest the lows. If that happens is there still and expected bounce out of this lows or it could go either way at that point?
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fubsy_cooter, thanks for that post. I made a note of it
Following up on my win/win scenario of being in cash right here, this is my trade plan going forward for various scenarios in USD and Gold.
Trades
USD: If it forms a bull flag from here,
EUO: Buy 20%
DUG: Buy 15%
On breakout
EUO: Buy 10%
DUG: Buy 10%
USD: If USD makes a new low and reverses on volume,
Place mental stop 1% below bottom pivot.
EUO: Buy 20%
DUG: Buy 15%
On Bull Flag
EUO: Buy 10%
DUG: Buy 10%
On Breakout
EUO: Buy 10%
DUG: Buy 10%
Gold: If it forms a bull flag from here,
DGP: Buy 20%
On breakout:
DGP: Buy 10%
Gold: If it makes a new low and reverses,
DGP: Buy 20%
On Bull Flag
DGP: Buy 10%
On breakout
DGP Buy 10%
Gold: If it continues higher from here to new highs, on high volume spike in price on Gold,
SLV: Buy 3% OTM Puts
That’s my plan for now.
f
New York,
I believe that if Gold gets to 1521 to form a swing, we won’t test the low.
Gary was looking for a test of the low before a swing is confirmed. For reasons that he outlined in tonight’s report.
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Please take this with a grain of salt (I think I am reaching here) and know that this is my 2 cents and when added with a dime is barely worth 10 cents in this inflationary environment.
Ok, all disclaimers aside….
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD:$USD&p=D&st=2011-01-01&en=2011-06-01&id=p63178522778&a=233561314
The last chart is the gold silver ratio. I was eyeing a trend over the weekend with regards to the really big spike up from 32 to 42 and then a small dip back down on Friday’s regaining of some strength.
Now, here is a longer term chart with some annotations:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD:$USD&p=D&st=2000-01-01&en=2011-06-01&id=p53170354973&a=233561314
Something I am following closely is the real time changes to the ratio (pulled from Kitcosilver.com or use good old calculator) off of this bounce.
My opinion is that if we keep the trend of lowering back into the 30’s and down, we are still in the strong uptrend and last week may have been a reset button, however if we reverse and start to show we may potentially rise again going above 42, silver is done for, for the time being.
I have no experience or other info to base this off of other than the long term chart does show the differences when the trend continues upward (correction periods) and when it reverses quickly (climbs).
As of now, the ratio is 40.2.
Gary,
Do you see the potential setup on silver?
Could be the greatest five day rally any of us has ever witnessed.
James
Gary,
Thanks for including a “Balls of Steel” strategy in the post. Even without your personal trades and the options, I appreciate having a few different trade strategies to choose from. Ladies with balls of steel like to test them now and again. 🙂
fubsy_cooter,
Wow, that’s awesome.
Thanks for sharing!
GDX chart has a candle inside of a candle, which is inside of a candle at a low; and support at the 200 EMA.Looks pretty bullish to me:)!
Upper bollinger band has expanded on silver!
The setup is there staring right at us!
Gold closed above it’s 9 day MA moved forward 9 days. Also another bullish sign.
WoooHooo,
According to Gary I’ve got balls of steel, still holding my AGQ and SLV. Not by choice, only because I started a new job last week and can’t trade during the day.
Waiting for $42.
This guy’s COT signal for Gold went to bullish on the open today.
http://cotstimer.blogspot.com/
I haven’t backtested his calls, but glad this came up.
Congrats Elaine,
How does it feel?
Fusby,
LOL, not as bad as lighting my hair on fire, but it sure was uncomfortable last Thursday.
ELAINE
Now you just have 1 more thing to worry about…where the market can Kick you! 🙂
FUSBY
I liked that strategy that you posted – I’m thinking of the same things if this thing falls through
Cooter,
I am surely nobody here but I thank you for posting your plans. They are complementary to SMT and help me in my adaptation of Gary’s determinations in view of what I can do.
FC, thanks for sharing your intended trades. Gets us back to putting our thinking caps back on and ready for the rest of this bull ride ;).
Hotrod..interesting charts…look at a weekly Gold:silver ratio chart. Basically we have moved from high 60’s last summer to 31 at the peek. There was a big gap at 45, now filled and a big gap on the way down to 31. Now there is a big gap back to 31. Scotia macotta had a 27 target. Their customers trade the ratio.
Too much talk D wave strategies. In my mind the fat lady hasn’t sung yet. Gold will make 1600 or higher before we call it a C wave. Its the gold bull we are riding ultimately. That many played the under valued Silver and made some huge gains or got shook off doesn’t change the gold ride. Gary always said the bull will do whatever it takes get you off. Silver may just surprise, again.
By the way….nothing wrong with stepping aside after the C wave and waiting until the PM
s bottom. When you buy THAT bottom, always keeping some as we go through the cycles, buying all IT bottoms, you will have super strong hand status so when the scary corrections come late in the bull, they don’t shake you off. This is more directed to the late comers who suffered losses. If you are patient and don’t try and get it all back in a D wave, or leverage crazy and try and time the next 3-6 weeks or so, a year from now you will be sleeping comfortably.
On Sinclair. He has been 100 % right. He provides no guidance to a trader. He doesn’t want to provide any guidance to traders. He doesn’t want his readers to use leverage. He advocates physical gold. He refers to Gold as insurance.
Gary, I must ask where you grew up? Or do you have a comedy act in Vegas? Your euphemisms are a real kick in the butt. The dynamite factory had me rolling on the floor. Thanks for getting back to Gary.
At ease,
Grew up in Independence, MO
Gary, that accounts for your home grown common sense. Who did you get your sense of humor from, your Mom or Dad?
James,
Can you elaborate on what you are seeing here?
Also why 5 days AND do you see as a target?
Much appreciated.
I spent a year at Fort Leavenworth, KS and between Kansas and MO, I met some of the nicest people you will meet on this earth. Just good people.
I knew you were raised right. 🙂
Bullion,
Silver once it hits its target of 42 will pullback and retest the 34 area.
The left leg will be completed and the right leg will commence.
Silver should bounce hard from the 34 area and in about 5 trading days should hit the short term target of 50!
To calculate the 50 target:
simply subtract 42 – 34 = 8
then add 42 + 8 = 50
I’m sure hedge funds all over the world see this setup!
James
James,
I would be interested in elaboration as well. I feel like you might be right but I just can’t put my finger on the evidence.
Thanks James!
Silver is going to retrace back to 50 in the near term.
We should clear 50 easy in this cycle.
Should of said, just good FOLKS from MO 🙂
at ease,
So, you did a year at Leavenworth huh? Anything like Alcatraz?
Command and General Staff College is there as well as the prison. The prisoners do some nice upholstery work as well as welding work and work around the post. Neat old Calvary post, we lived in the old Quarters with the stables below (now garage space). Lots of Buffalo in the area is what I remember and as I said, some of the nicest people you will ever meet living in KS and MO.
KS, but the hardest thing to learn to live with was the many tornado sirens going off. I had to keep reminding myself, that the building we lived in survived all the others, so odds were in our favor to survive the year. 🙂
I remember when the air turned yellow a tornado was coming. Scary stuff tornado’s.
James,
From $34 to $50 in one week? Damn, James, if things unfold as you predict, please start your own newsletter because I will be your first subscriber.
Gary, the lighting one’s hair on fire was the funniest thing I’ve ever read in a report — unfortunately, spot on.
James,
I doubt it, but I do hope you’re right.
Gary,
What would make the air turn yellow? I can only guess, pollen being blown around? We have seen what Tornados have done this year.
Horrific damage. It’s amazing with technology, we have now on film the first tsuanmi and pictures from cell phones of people in floods and tornados. Amazing live footage.
In Oklahoma the sky turns green.
OK, what makes the sky turn green?
Would appreciate if someone here can tell me how goldseek.com calculate their %. What start time is their basis? Thanks much.
atease,
I don’t know, I suppose a google search could probably answer the question.
atease,
http://www.news.wisc.edu/15301
One of the more competent EWavers is QuadG, posting at kitco. imo.
He has today posted his target gold range, which he expects to be a move rather quickly.
His target is 1660-1780, timewise around the end of June.
Here’s the chart he just posted:
https://www.kitcomm.com/showpost.php?p=1351081&postcount=10436
Fantastic report tonight, Gary. Loved the humor and the great information.
It feels good to be getting back to business as usual.
I’m guilty of a nasty comment here on the blog last week, and I regretted it as soon as I posted. Really sorry to have added to the angst.
“Balls of steel, you say?” Well, heck, all’s forgiven then!
BookGuy, I think Gary would say the latter, “frogs and grasshoppers”. Hmmm, so now that has me thinking what would be yellow in MO? 😉
We’re getting to the point where the disillusioned bulls will start piling on and we should see some panic lock out days. Could coincide with the gold swing. I’ve doubted Silver could do much after that collapse, but not so much anymore.
Veronica, I’m with you on the bullish part, at least to the point where we make a nice new high on Gold.
Morning
Well, neither Gold or the Dollar ready to give us a convincing signal.
They’re both rallying, convincing for gold. At some point if the dollar turns lower to test those lows, it could really accelerate golds run.
Dollar seems to be forming a bull flag/penant.
Good morning Poly/Veronica,
Does your theory of a nice bounce in 5-10 days relies on what happened for Silver in the 80s crash?
Evening All,
There’s a good vibe on the blog at the moment. Keep’s life stress free so we can make clear decisions.
HotRod,
Nice work with the gold/silver ratio. That’s the reason I posted the Gold/Silver ratio chart over the weekend without spelling it out. Now that it’s backtested the 44 resistance level, if it falls back towards the 30’s while Gold is making new high’s, Silver should test 50 again. Rmember this is only a “POTENTIAL” settup and we need to watch the bear as well. You are thinking like a trader, I like it 🙂
I know Silver has had a big hit but I watch a lot of spec mining stock charts and when the daytraders get a hold of them they put in some pretty wild swings, way above their fundamental value, they will run up to test resistance then pull back wildly then rally back up for a second attempt before pulling back to realistic prices. The silver chart is looking a lot like one of these speccies so I’m keeping an eye on possibilities.
No. I’m only going on the fact that gold was oversold in what now appears to be its normal timing band for a cycle low. If we get a swing right here, it will most likely confirm that.
This bounce is already 5 days old 🙂
James r,
It’s always handy to post a chart showing your settups if you can. Saves a lot of pesky questions lol
thanks Poly!
Hey Gary,
Born and raised in Missouri, but got to Texas as fast I could!
Spent a year in College Station. The humidity was even worse than MO.
Beep
Hey
since we’re conducting a personal interview- what brought you to Vegas…Family? Friends? Rocks?
My grandparents lived in Henderson, and 123 degrees F in the summer made it a great place to visit—-in the Fall.
Yea, they use the humidity down here to try and keep the Yankees away. Didn’t work for me.
jh,
Australia’s most notorious outlaw was a Kelly. He fabricated bullet proof body armour out of 1/4″ steel so the coppers couldn’t shoot him.
They just shot out his knee cap’s lol
I’m guessing no engineers stemmed from his side of the family 🙂
I always wanted to live in the West. One day I just decided I didn’t want to live in MO anymore. Packed up and headed West.
Dollar still trading sideways. Looks like a bear Flag. With the metals doing so well as the dollar trades sideways I wonder how they will go if the dollar starts to tank fast.
Sophia,I’ve said here manmy times that silver is the wild child of the metals and would never trade any leverged silver products so I don’t look at it for any analysis at all.The gold markets look to me like they will continue to grind up for a few more years getting support at key moving averages before the mania phase,like the 70’s. Now I would change my mind if gold had a huge rally later this year and doubled or more in a relatively short amount of time.
I think we all should be focused on buying gold at key 65 or 75 week averages and then holding,which was key to do in the 70’s bull market in order to capitalize on the mania phase.
Not getting too excited yet, but sure does look like we are back to “normal” – pre-silver spike and crash.
There also seems to be a “governor” on gold’s ascent.
Maybe “they” are well aware of the 1520 line in the sand and are keeping it under wraps for additional accumulation.
Or, maybe we’re primed for a huge raid.
Veronica,
Did you experience the 70’s run in PM’s? What you suggest sounds like a good long term strategy for a core holding.
This article is very much in line with what Gary has been expecting. They believe the dollar is in a “Managed downtrend” and will resume south shortly.
He then notes the HUI is at the 200dma, oversold, and due to move up.
Good article , but if its a tad too long, its at least worth reading the first couple paragraphs about govt dollar devaluation to try to pay off massive debt.
http://www.gold-prices.biz/the-dead-cat-dollar/#more-2412
Hi Silverhound….like the XA BTW….how do you trade ASX based on Gary’s calls?
I’m in SA BTW
Gary,
Your oil trade after the 2008 crash. I remember in your radio interview you mention you never jump on the previous bull as it never leads the next bull. I’m guessing oil was just a regression to the mean and bounce opportunity. Yes?
Yes that’s what the 20 under the 200 trade is, a regression to the mean trade.
That’s also what the BB crash trade is.
G’day Conman
I wish I could jump on some of the 2x ETF’s and options the USA traders have access to but I’m just taking positions in some PM juniors and following the Gold run. I only signed up a short while ago and was already following this strategy, now I’m keeping an eye on Gary’s cycle work for the underlying trend.
I may look at putting some funds into a US broker account for the A wave though.
The XA is a Phase 4 GTHO, belongs to David Bowden the trader. Figured it was good incentive 🙂
ok cool
thanks
To avoid the constant emails requesting for the rules, I have uploaded it here for download
This way less trouble for Alex n Kate. I think Alex will be fine with it.
Alex,
That was a good article, It would seem that everything is going as planned (except of course the underestimation of the correction size) however besides the silver crash everything is going as Gary predicted. Could it be that we are still on for the final leg of the C-Wave?
New subscriber. I have to update my page to see new posts. can anyone recommend an easy way to read these posts in real time?
mmmm nice xa…1 of only four built & 3 in existence.
AYN has been my pick so far with good results.
I’ve toyed with idea of trading US stocks but at $85 per trade (Comsec International), seems a little pricey.
Gary,
Interesting that you spent a year in College Station, I spent 5 years there getting my undergrad and masters. Spent nearly my entire life in Texas and yes the humidity is a killer. In Boston now and I do enjoy only having 2 months of hot humid weather instead of 9.
ARUN
Thx, that was a tad time consuming yesterday.
Silver taking a dive right now.
That cleared up any thought I might have had about dipping my toe back into the silver market.
However, if you are looking for silver play right now, you might want to keep an eye on RVM … just listed on the Amex yesterday.
Revett Minerals is a great long-term hold, I plan to buy it after the D Wave is over, but might get a big pop over the next few days due to being a brand new listing on the Amex, moving up from the OTB.
avia72 – thanks for mentioning back ratio spreads and collar strategies for safe playing. I had a question on back ratio spread, you mention buying back ratio spreads (buying 2 calls and selling 1) for upside gains with controlled risk. I am wondering why you chose back ratio spread vs. simply buying 1 call and 1 put? Wouldn’t it give you same risk profile?
That 50% retracement level in GC 1520 bought out some sellers for sure.. right down to the 38% retrace at 1506.2. First sign of sellers becoming aggresive.
Conman
Nice work on AYN, that was a 7 bagger. I didn’t even look at it because of low grade and too many shares on issue (apparently not haha)
I don’t even know if comsec has access to the EFT’s either. A few of the people on here trade from outside the US so there must be an easy way.
Spoke too fast …
silver bounced right back.
Still thinking about that RVM play.
Tajir:
All these have different delta and gamma strategies. They also have different costs (upfront outlay and theta decay).
What I would suggest is that you download the thinkorswim platform. It allows you to make hypothetical trades and then study the performance over time. That is the best way to learn these things.
Specifically with regards to back ratio spreads: They give you upside exposure for BIG moves which would be similar to buying an OTM option but cost less. So if you expect price to tag 60 and it is 50 right now, a 53-54 Back Ratio will give you a similar exposure as long 54 call but much more downside protection and cost less. IMHO they are a great way of playing the final cycle of parabolic moves. You capture much of the upside with little of the downside. Note that the P&L relationship is not 1:1. i.e. one spread will not be equivalent to one contract or lot.
aviat72 – thanks for the explanation. Do you recommend any book/reference website to understand this better. I have TOS that I am using to profile the two strategies you suggested (collar and back ratio) few days back. and I am amazed with the money management control they give. Add them with Gary’s work, it can do wonders.
Also, it seems like for both the strategies (collar and back ratio spread), you have to sell a call, which I am not sure would be allowed in IRA account. Do you have any experience with selling covered calls in IRA. thanks again.
FUBSY: thanks very much for sharing your plan. VERY helpful to see someone else’s thinking laid out like that.
Veronica,
9 day moving average moved forward 9 days? Are you talking displaced moving average? Apparently the 9 day, displaced 9 days is something you’ve found to be significant? Do you use others?
This comment has been removed by the author.
SLUMDOG: THANKS for that EWave chart. It’s a good one. And the scenario outlined fits Sinclair’s target and timing to a T.
Leilani, See Arun’s post above
Michael,
Sign up for twitter account and select to follow: garysavage1.
That will give you posting notices as well as follow blog comments, once you check the box below the Leave your comment box on the blog.
Alex,
Thank you for your generosity. Much apreciated.
Over the past few weeks, I’ve been interested in why the Eoro has gone up vs. the dollar when several Eurozone countries (the PIIGS) are in desperate fiscal shape and last weekend Greece even had discussions about leaving the Euro.
I chalked it up to the fact the dollar is somehow perceived to be in even worse short term shape. Below is an article that wrestles with the same issue. The chart included in the article shows the significant divergence between Greece CDS risk and the Euro/USD level.
Pretty interesting stuff, and portends a significantly higher dollar when the Euro falls (as it eventually will).
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/dislocation-between-eur-and-piigs-insolvency-risk
Make that ‘Euro’
Now tagging my 37.66 on slv that I was talking about yesterday, like I said lots of air and volume came in 37.66 no problem
thanks for your answer Veronica!
If we can break above and hold this next target. 38.25 should provide medium resistance and 38.94 will be the big dog to break… 38.94 with some nice consolidation and more volume shouldn’t be too big a problem..breaking that level however will take some work
Any hzu.to holders don t have a heart attack! there was a 3:1 share split,your stock did not drop 67% 🙂
Chicago Mercantile Exchange finally hiked margin requirements on many energy products after the close on Monday..
if the dollar falls in bits like this that will look like a bear flag
H,
I think you mean bull flag.
That is what I meant, just a meathead moment.
Thanks Trader Lady!
I think gold GLD is looking very good here.
It made a perfect test and bounce off of the 50 day ema and now it has recaptured the 10 day ema.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=D&b=9&g=0&id=p57193865236&a=232304735
Chart of GLD
Since the ‘guidelines’ were posted, and I’m getting feedback in emails, I just want to say this. They were written as questions of self-examination To MYSELF. When it says ,
” Are YOU blah blah blah?”… Thats me talking to MYSELF, these MAY NOT be right for your style, right? They may/may not work for all…ADAPT them to what works for your style of investing.
“machine gun Kelly’ Never worked for me,I always lost money ,it DOES work for many on here. This list is my capital preservation.
2 rules I got straight from a William O’Neil book, but it was exactly a mistake I had made repeatedly, Example: “proper buy points”, so I just added personal notes ( even dates of my trade for memory). I STILL catch myself breaking 2 or3 of those rules…I only notice when I lose money and reread the list.
Thanks for the feedback , its all been really positive, but I just wanted to say they arent ‘rules’ that cant be broken 🙂 ‘guidelines’
Hope it helps someone
at ease,
Thanks alot.
Gary, If you are ever in Tucson let me know. I live in west Tucson near Gates Pass. My back yard is Tucson Mountain Park. I’m not a rock climber but we have plenty of rocks around here…BIG rocks. See my profile picture for the view off of my back deck.
I’m out if intensive care everyone, thanks for the cards n presents
Won’t be taking an overdose of Agq any time soon x
F.W.I.W.
I am keeping an eye on XG and RIC if things work out for the upside.
XG is at new all time highs already and never even reacted to last weeks sell off. That says a lot to me.
Clarkatroid,
Glad to hear of your recovery!
Do you still have some PM positions?
HUI’s intermediate trend line now a bit of resistance on the way back up.
http://screencast.com/t/s1ZR5P2abZ
Alex,
I looked at the daily chart of XG. It goes back to only mid March on my charts. Is it a new issue?
(How do you find these??)
Oil going green (despite the margin), and Agriculture is moving up again. The commodities arent done yet, the dollar should start its leg back down soon it seems.
Again, Aussie $ looking VERY strong.
Silverhound: I never knew that. That’s a great story. Another Kelly who made his mark on the world! ;^)
“I think gold GLD is looking very good here.”
I agree. When that swing finally goes too, watch for some lights out moves that could have us up to all time high’s in a blink.
Am I missing something, or do we have a swing low on gold (GLD)?
Veronica: I very much appreciate your insight into the 70s gold bull market. Please keep it up! (One of the many “projects” on my list is to gather the 1970s gold charts and do some analysis of what happened then — but I just don’t have the damn time.)
Poly-
It feels like we’re at a tipping point (Duh…both Gary and Doc have promoted the view), and I could easily see a 1-2 day consolidation to let residual trapped longs out, then an after hours spike that causes a gold/silver gap up at the following open…and the chase would be on.
jm,
GLD yes, but not $GOLD.
Long 26% GDXJ, 24% QID*, 10% DUG, 8% GLDX, 12% EUO
Short 7% SLV
Cash 13%
*modified position
T.J. Yeah, I would say yesterday towards the end and all morning the residual longs have been getting out. This 3 day move has erased that big leg down. We could toy with the swing low for a few days and then shut the gates!
Stock Chart shows $1,521.80 as the swing.
test,
My work says to be long the markets, so be careful with that QID. Also, UNP is up which I’ve heard is a good view of what’s coming.
Can anyone recommend a good resource for learning more about charting? Also, do you recommend a subscription to StockCharts or is the basic subscription sufficient? Thank you for your help.
Just be careful trying to rationalize long positions here. More often than not the 10 DMA will turn a market back down after a steep decline and set up a test.
I would feel much better about the rally if that would happen even though like everyone else here I’m in a hurry to make back lost profits.
PIMA
http://www.screencast.com/t/PPWfcYZheT
Thanks, Alex.
Wonder why TOS charts go back only to mid March on this one? Maybe they went from one exchange to another at that time?
Anyway, thanks for the chart. Strong upmove.
It did pull back 18 percent on 4/21, 25, and 26, but weathered last week’s route without much of a pullback.
jh,
I’m always on the lookout for LT charts on the earlier commodities bull markets as well. My charts just don’t have the data to play with.
Maybe>>>>>>>>…. Gary…<<<<< could give us a history lesson on the premium site one day (wink)
🙂
at ease,
I have signed up for Twitter, am following garysavage1 but no posts coming through on Twitter website.
Sorry to be a pain, but any suggestions?
Thx
PIMA
I was thinking the same thing, maybe XG was a Canadian miner only before march, because the chart service I used for that clip also shows others recently listed that way.
As for a pullback, I wouild imagine it could easily pullback to $9 if we get selling pressure. Thats the 20sma and the bottom area of the recent consolidation, but I would be very interested if it did that and we just pullback in metals for a retest of the recent bottom
Gary,
With such apparent high odds why aren’t you doing the BB crash trade?
Micheal as far as I know you will only be notified on twitter once a day , when Gary posts the nightly report.
SLW looks like it may come back down to 36 or so over the next few days to finish completing an inverse head and shoulders. Then, hopefully, it’ll be off to the races.
Haggerty,
Thanks for the reply. I will use Twitter to know when Gary makes a new post.
Are you able to view the blog in real-time without having to refresh your page? If so, can you tell me how?
Clarkatroid,
Sounds like the dreaded “parabolicitis”.
RLK
Is the dropping volume on SLV and GLD the last several days a concern to anyone?
UUP and FXE have each worked off their signals by not doing much. My short term opinion is back to neutral. Also…
UNG just showed up on my buy screen. Covered my short (obviously). I am hesitant to go long as it is one of the very worst ETF’s in terms of roll-out erosion. I think I”ll watch it and buy some if it dips further. After the recent smash it ought to at least bounce, I suppose.
Michael, Did you check the box below comment box before you sent me a message. That should kick you off, unless you have to wait until Gary actually posts tonights report. Otherwise, not sure.
Any suggestions or thoughts anyone who recently signed up and receiving email posts via twitter?
Neil-
I agree, considerable divergence. Rising price action on low volume is a concern for me getting back in as well. Maybe we see a spike in volume at the swing low?
Neil,
SLV volumes shot up to 89 million + on April 20th. Prior to that, they were averaging 30 million or so.
DG/Dwight/moron,
Why not play FCG instead of UNG?
at ease,
no, did not check the box, but will do so. I assume the box is to received follow-up comments via email. Is that how you follow and post to the blog, via email?.
Gary or anyone in the forum-
What do you estimate GLD will be at if and when gold makes a swing low at 1521. I’d like to set up a conditional trade as I cannot be monitoring my computer during the work day?
Micheal
the only way I know to follow the blog is to hit refresh.
Playing the BB signal is not in my current plan. I’m looking to get long gold not silver.
I mentioned the signal not to encourage people to take it, although they can if they want but more as a possible target for trapped longs to get out.
Intern: becaws I’m a moron.
It’s hardly low volume! Only 8 other days eclipse this volume, they happen to be the 4 days before the crash and the 4 days of the crash. You’re not going to beat that volume.
I dont like to throw out stock names, but I will here … RIO.V seems like a real good setup. Resisted the Selloff last week, and has since popped a little. Seems to be a low risk setup at this point, but perhaps one of the smarter folks here can take a look and offer an opinion.
Also recently released some real good news .. poured their first bricks …
This is a very simple analysis just looking at price action in USD and GLD over the past couple days.
It looks to me as though each is in a flag, USD in a bull flag, GLD in a bear flag (after its initial one day launch, the last two days are trading like a bear flag).
So here’s a two step trade for 1) a strong dollar followed by 2) a reversal so the dollar can test its lows and gold can finish its C-Wave…
I think the flags set up nicely for Gary’s scenario in which the dollar breaks upward and gold downward to test its lows. Tomorrow should help clarify this picture. If the current price action continues (flags develop)I’ll take a couple short term strong dollar trades..long EUO and DUG. With that trade open, I’ll be watching for Gold to approach a test of its lows, at which point I will look for a reversal in the dollar and gold to reverse the trades to long DGP until gold either gets a blow off top or reverses and shows us a D-Wave is in play.
Hope that isn’t too convoluted.
f
Haggerty,
Thanks
Gary – curious if you will focus more on Silver once the D-wave kicks off, and less on Gold for profit opportunites. I think Gold would hold up better and although silver has went down considerably already I think it has alot further to go (percent wise). Interested in your view here – thanks for your insights!!
Intern: On the off chance you were serious…
UNG provides many more signals, most off which are successful. Right now I see nothing on FCG.
I remian cautious at this point. I don’t see a great edge in taking trades right here, so the flags will have to develop cleanly for me to take this trade and I’ll do it small.
I’ll go bigger when more definitive setups emerge. Being in all cash is a clean feeling.
I’m most excited about Gary’s projection possibly coming to light and Gold testing its low prior to heading into its C-Wave finale while the dollar breaks its lows before setting us up for the D-Wave.
I’m just having trouble sitting on my hands while that unfolds.
The game is addictive. A recipe for water drop losses…this inability to stay out of the game.
f
I will not focus on the D-wave at all except in the alternate portfolio because the strategies that I find acceptable to play the D-wave and not appropriate for most people.
FRANCISCO: Stockcharts.com is a great resource to start out with. My subscription is: Extra + Realtime. You want to get Realtime because then you can set the charts to refresh every 15 seconds, and it’s pretty close to getting actual live charts (that change continuously). I can’t remember why I got Extra, I think it was to get Murphy’s Market Message every day. I think they give that “free” to every one now.
Stockcharts is a GREAT place to learn about technical analysis. It’s the home of John Murphy, who wrote one of the Bibles of TA (“Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets”).
1. I believe they have an “introductory video” now that you can watch;
2. Then, somewhere on the site, look for Murphy’s Ten Laws of Trading, or something like that, and paste that on the wall in front of you and think about what he says a little.
3. Then dive into their “ChartSchool” and start working your way through that. And definitely learn how to use the ADX indicator. It’s VERY valuable, and will tell you whether price movement is trending or nontrending, and that will tell you whether you should be paying more attention to MACD or stochastics.
3. Then study Murphy’s Market Message every day — an overview of the markets that he and his fellow analyst Arthur Hill write. Very valuable stuff, and will introduce you to other TA tools that you might find valuable.
4. I’d highly recommend Murphy’s book: “The Visual Investor: How to Spot Market Trends”. It’s a great, very clear overview for “the general public” on technical analysis and how to use it. Even if you’ve been using TA for a number of years, many of us pick up this stuff in an “ad hoc” fashion, meaning we don’t learn it in a very systematic way. That book will help you see and understand “the roots” of technical analysis, and, once you do, you’ll be able to use your indicators in a better way, and may even alter them to make them more effective.
5. Finally, I’d definitely get Murphy’s book: “Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets”, and work your way through that too.
Once you do all this, I will send you a certificate and a T-shirt: “Stand back! I’m a Kick-Ass TA Guy!!!” ;^) (Just kidding, and, of course, these are all just suggestions.)
I hope this helps. And good luck with your TA and your trading.
jhnewman, very helpful post RE stockcharts.
I use stockcharts and it is there that I have been able to program in screens to get my buys and sells. Their screening function covers virtually every stock and ETF’s. You put in your criteria, hit send, and it instantly tells you what securrities match those criteria. Invaluable. The screen programming is complicated and their support minimal, but it is quite doable and well worth it.
I don’t like that US$ resilience…
That’s ok Gary. The blog will become a Lord of the Flies experiment. With Dad gone, all us kids will vie for supremacy with our half cocked ideas for playing the D-Wave.
f
jh – how interesting: the ADX you mention shows graphically today exactly how we are all feeling about PoG
Eamonn: Thanks. It’s a great place to learn TA fast and thoroughly. Lots and lots of great resources.
Michael, twitter will show up Gary’s posts and you can follow along also on the blog comments if you log in for the next or current blog post by Gary, currently “Transition to D-Wave”. If you post a comment and click the comment below before you submit it, you should then be receiving the blog comments by email on your gmail email account.
That was tongue in cheek, btw.
F.W.I.W.
Posted buys of “AG” on Wednesday and Thursday. Sold 1/2 yesterday, the rest now. Looks tired , broke the 50 sma on the way down, and hitting 50 sma resistance now with less conviction.
COULD go sideways and break through later,but for now-This was a trade… good enough. Wait and see, may enter again if it pulls back on light volume.
http://www.screencast.com/t/6HZeBRuiP
DG
How successful are your criteria?
Felix: ADX is a GREAT indicator. If more traders used it, I think their trading would improve.
I certainly haven’t mastered it, and have a book sitting on my bookshelf that I haven’t had the time to crack yet (same old story) that would help you master the ADX: “ADXcellence: Power Trend Strategies” by Dr. Charles B. Schaap.
Instead of the standard (14) period setup, this guy recommends using a more sensitive 13,8. That’s just one of many things you’ll get in that book. (Which I’ve only had time to dip into at this point.)
Gotta run. Good luck, all.
Gold may find Resistance @ GapFill On the Daily Chart: imo
http://screencast.com/t/8khKSRLwa
DG: I had no idea Stockcharts could do that. Thanks. Gotta run.
Felix. I don’t track percentages, and there’s a bit of nuance to them (it is not totally black box, that is), but they are quite good. I have been posting many trades here in real time for a long time, so I let people judge for themselves.
Gary, if goes up to $1521 will you add to positions today? Or maybe you’ll wait till tomorrow to see if gold still holds $1521?
If it breaks $1521 (actually $1521.80) today I will put on a partial position.
Tajir:
I think there is enough stuff available online that books are not needed. Most brokerages have videos etc. What you would need to develop is a methodology around it. It is very important to consider your risk tolerance. TOS is awesome. Tells you exactly what you get.
=============
We are at a critical point. The Euro has formed a base and as Gary said if the traders want to re-establish trend they need to do it now. Unfortunately we have strikes in Greece etc tomorrow so Euro is going to be under pressure.
What I really want to see is a decoupling of gold and the dollar. I am not sure whether silver can do that but Euro fear will do great to get that final parabolic run in Gold.
Regarding silver, I would personally be scaling out between now and 42 (my positions are very tiny). There is no guarantee we will even see 40 in SI. Perhaps we will to take out stops and then it falls again.
Equities were all set for a trend move but are finding sellers. That is not good for DX weakness.
Gary: The bear flag scenario is still on the table correct? So either the bear flag wins, or the BB crash on Silver.
Thank you JH Newman. That was awesome and just what needed.
By the way, I’m going to hold you to the t-shirt offer!
Gary, what’s a partial GLD position?
ITM calls equivalent to 80% of your portfolio? 😉
John Murphy’s Ten Laws of Technical Trading
w/o subscription
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:trading_strategies:john_murphy_s_ten_laws
Gary if you add today over 1521.80 is that a position you’ll hold on to even during a draw down?
If the market falls back at what level would you consider selling it back?
Gary,
is there, in your opinion and according to your cycles, any chance that the C wave for PMs and the 3 year cycle in the dollar stretch for another few months or so? Could we see a full recovery in both silver and gold with new highs in both accompanied by a longer decline in the dollar? Perhaps leading us to a C wave top in the fall rather than an imminent C wave top?
There are some voices out there (including James Turk, I believe) who see a continuation of the price increase rather than a sharp and prolonged correction. What do you see that they don’t see and vice versa?
Thank you!
DG,
I have lost money many times with UNG, but someday it should work… Is there a better way to play nat gas? what about GAZ?
Basil,
It is possible that the dollar just has an intermediate rally here and then drops down into the three year cycle low at the next intermediate cycle low in the fall.
I think it would require QE3 though and I don’t think that’s politically possible at this time.
Paul,
Try Encana (ECA) instead, I find UNG uber-frustrating.
IMO natural gas is locked in a trading range. Currency debasement is trying to force it up while huge oversupply is trying to take it down.
The result is a market that is oscillating back and forth in a range.
In a range bound market the best strategy is to sell overbought conditions and buy oversold.
We will probably use this strategy after the next B-wave has run it’s course.
Alex,
Thanks for your AG post! Very helpful.
Mr. T,
Thanks for the John Murphy laws. Good stuff!
I’m still sitting tight, just peeking in occasionally as I wait for my next setup.
It’s been nice enjoying other things in life the last few days. 🙂
I personally would not use an individual stock like ECA, though that’s a good gas stock. They don’t always move together. UNG need to be viewed as a trade.I have traded GAZ, but for a quick pop I don’t think it matters much. Do not hold them though.
at ease,
Thanks again. Appreciated.
I agree with Gary about NG. Good for trading, not for eroding ETF’s
UNG will likely bounce here.
http://screencast.com/t/Vz2pnlvDhb1h
Francisco: you’re welcome. And there ya go — Mr. T has brought over Murphy’s 10 Laws for you. Thanks, Mr. T.
And, Francisco, let me even offer you an initial “chart set-up” that you might find useful:
1. Set size to Landscape or larger. (The custom function down below is very helpful. Once you get all the indicators you want on your chart, you can go down to “Custom” and try to size the chart in such a way that everything will be sitting on your screen, so you don’t have to scroll all the time to look at your indicators above the chart and then your indicators below the chart.
1. Use standard candlesticks for price;
2. Put standard Bollinger Bands around price (20,2);
2. Put 50 and 200 EMAs on the price chart: Exponential moving averages rather than the regular moving averages. Just a suggestion. it seems to me that price often reacts with them more than the regular 50 & 200.
3. Above price in this order from top to bottom, 3 momentum indicators. Momentum indicators are the most “forward-looking” of the standard indicators:
A. Regular RSI (14)
B. RSI (5)
C. Regular CCI (20)
4. Below price in this order:
A. ADX (13,8)
B. Standard MACD (whatever the numbers are when you add MACD. Can’t remember right now).
C. Standard full stochastics.
That’s a pretty good set-up to start with. Just suggestions that may get you where you want to go faster. You may already have a fair amount of experience with TA, and, if so, I’m sure you have your own preferred set-up.
Good luck!
anybody buy AGQ today.. i’d think silver sellers are out already?
JH Newman,
Truly above and beyond! Thank you again and I really appreciate your time and advice. I just hope that I can repay the favor.
Does it not bother anyone here that the miners continue to underperform the metals? And are trading on lower-than average volume?
Until I see these things change, I am a seller.
David,
Losing my zen-like patience with miners here…
Francisco: My pleasure. I’m just “paying it forward” as they say. Many, many generous people have helped me in the past, and it inspires me to try to follow their example.
The miners are a tell as to the health of the whole market.
They told us silver was going to crash. Now they’re telling us this rally isn’t for real.
The miners must start outperforming soon, or it’s game over.
Is the Dollar forming another coil here? A high base, faking out to the downside, testing the low from FRiday before reversing? Or will it make new lows?? Man, what a game of patience!
There goes UNG. Covered my short but did not buy.
Francisco: 2 last tips.
1. The first category you’ll see under your charts is “Chart Attributes”. I’d un-check the Y-Axis labels.
2. And, in the future, when you want to draw trendlines on your chart, uncheck “log scale”. You want to draw trendlines on a non-logarithmic, or arithmetic chart. At least that’s the way I learned it.
I still don’t know how to do it on screen. For now, I just print out a non-logarithmic chart and use a ruler to draw trendlines, and stick it on the wall in front of me.
David, how did the miners tell us Silver was going to crash when miners have not performed since last Nov?
What told us Silver was going to crash was it’s vertical structure, with 90%+ bulls calling for $60-$70 and buying call options late in the cycle count. Silver being stretched some ridiculous levels above any moving average didn’t help.
If this is indeed an end to this 2 yr C-wave, sure didn’t go crazy like the last few. If that is the case, the argument should be made that this D-Wave will be a mild affair, maybe just a little more severe than your typical IT low. Of course a d-wave is just that a severe IT low right, one that moves further down as it has further to revert back past the mean.
Hey Shalom!
Turn off your damn printing press already!
To draw trendlines in Stockcharts, go to ‘Annotate’ and you’ll get to some tools you can much around with. The on screen drawing works OK, but not as good as some paid charting programs.
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T.J. Rand: Thank you! I’ll check that out.
Silver racing upwards, miners not particpating.
Stop me if you’ve heard this one before.
I think the weakness in the miners might just be foretelling some “bottoming weakness” in gold and silver this week (coming back down somewhat to put in a stronger bottom), which, as Gary has said, would be healthy for the “gold long” position
The other possibility for the miners is that they’re their ususual “slack selves”.
Of course, the other option is they’re saying we’re in the D-wave. I don’t buy that, but I sure could be wrong.
“(coming back down somewhat to put in a stronger bottom)”
That would be healthy. But, that would add 5 more days onto an already record(?) daily count.
I’m a probabilities guy and my count strongly favor a cycle low already in place rather than one still 3-5 days away. No?
Or it could be that more people are interested in GLD, SLV & al as “easy money” to consider miners.
The mining index and the energy indexes both appear to be forming bear flags. My best guess is that commodities are going to have to test those lows before they can make a sustained bounce.
We are either going to open with a gap up or down someday soon. This way we can’t react to it as it’s happening.
Gary, that doesnt go well with the cycle count. You want a super stretched gold cycle to stretch even further because of the HUI not conforming?
Who cares about the miners!
The swing come tonight or tomorrow.
XG was spun our from XRA (Exeter) in May 2010 and listed on the Toronto exchange at $2, It then listed on the NYSE Amex in March 2011. While XRA has consolidated since the spin out, XG is up 500% based on the expansion of gold reserves at their Cerro Moro Argentina property.
Gary, so at this point, you are thinking about getting into the long positions only if we revisit lows of the May 5th?
Poly: I agree. I don’t mean coming down to set a new daily cycle low, I think that’s already been done. But, as in the example of SLW, maybe coming down over the next 2 days to form a good right inverse shoulder at 36, while gold and silver might come down for a day or 2 to form a stronger bottom structure. (Not setting a new cycle low, but having some temporary weakness that would create a stronger, more definite bottom.)
Agree Aaron, we’re getting a swing soon enough in my book.
Then we might retrace back to test say $1,500 at most (Satisfy jhnewman) and then off to the high’s.
Nice to dream ha 🙂
Sure fire day trading plan and I’m only half joking.
Short HUI near the open.
If gold and general market go down, you will make money.
If gold and general market go up… um, you will still make money.
Poly: then we’ll ALL be happy!!! ;^) (Except maybe The Chasers, if that’s how it develops.)
Note to Chasers: grab on to the caboose!!!
Gold does not look weak to me.
http://arum-geld-gold.blogspot.com/2011/05/gold-back-in-saddle-again.html
GLD at 50% of retrace.
Should turn down from here to test the lows. As Gary noted, Miners and energy stock isn’t confirming this move.
Aaron,
You want to ignore the warning signs because you want the cycles to conform to what you want them to do?
The cycle is already terribly stretched. What difference does it make at this point if it stretches a little more?
It could also just end up being a test (1-2-3 reversal) and the bottom was put in on Thursday.
Driven,
I have two entry points. One would be if a swing forms but that would only be a partial position because I don’t trust a move that hasn’t tested the lows.
The other would be a full position if gold can test those lows.
a few big miners on BOW list
GG FCX ABX
You’re smoking crack if you believe the miners have had any part of the action in 2011! This entire IT cycle has been about the metals and nothing more.
The HUI has spent some 40% of 2011 BELOW the 50 dma.
It has tagged the 200dma basically 3 times in 2011.
It managed to better the 2010 high for 3 lonely days!
Gary,
If you change the standard portfolio (adding gold, etc.), I assume (hope) you’ll post a change notice here directed to the premium site.
The smoking crack comment was not directed at anybody directly, BTW 🙂
Gary I will take a valid warning sign anyday, the miners trailing is nothing new. It certainly wasnt an issue in the last runup.
It may seem to some that Im bullish because Im long, but at the same time, it seems to me that many are bearish because they have sold or are waiting to add.
To each his own I guess.
The HUI did put in a 25% rally over a 2 month period coming out of the Jan intermediate bottom but it was a wild ride.
Poly: Don’t generalize too much. Take a look at SLW’s chart for 2011 and tell me it hasn’t participated.
Now, where’s my crack pipe. ;^)
Gary,
I’ve looked at MANY past daily cycle lows and dont see retests on so many. So yes I would go with the cycle count over a something that has limited history.
Well i guess this lack of general conviction is probably not a bad think. Be guarded in any event.
A retest just because it was a daily cycle low is not what I’m taking about. I’m talking about a very hard sell off. Those kind of declines usually need to get tested.
In that kind of correction a whole new group of trend followers at some point try to re-establish a down trend.
That wouldn’t happen with a normal mild daily cycle low.
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Poly,
The silver miners topped in early April. Remember AG at $27? Everybody here wanted it. GPL at $5.00? SLW at $47? At that point they were forecasting the parabolic top in silver.
Then they started underperfoming. Gary took this as a sign that a sharp correction was coming — and he was right. They were foretelling the crash we just had.
After the beating we just took, they should be rallying hard if silver is going back to $50. They aren’t.
The gold miners are telling a similar story.
And no, I’m not out — yet. But I am slowly selling until I start to see some convincing moves.
After what we’ve just seen, people here should have a lot of healthy skepticism, but I’m not seeing it. That worries me.
At some point the sellers are going to come back in with a vengeance in the silver market.
I think gold probably came down hard enough also for sellers to attempt to take it back down. The poor participation by miners would seem to suggest that’s a fairly strong possibility. But because it is so late in the cycle I expect buyers will step in and the rally out of that low will have legs and will make new highs.
That’s my best guess anyway.
Before you guys get really giddy on Gold, some of you might want to take a look at volume on GLD the past 3 days coming out of the lows from last Thursday.
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EricH, if your point is that the volume is now lower than a vicious stop running correction at capitulation, then you are right.
Im not sure exactly what that means though.
DG,
Thanks for posting the UNG trade. Had I not been out at the gym, I would have bought a little and slapped a tight stop on…and I already would have my profits. Grrr.
All the same, thanks, and please keep ’em coming.
EricH,
I mentioned this a couple of times, the volume April 27 to May 6 was way above average.
I interpret it as norm, recognition, frenzied buying, profit taking, panic selling and back to norm stages.
Same with SLV.
Could it be possible the miners have sniffed out the D wave even if it doesn’t come for another 3 weeks?
That ain’t long even if we get one last rush up.
ericH,
I’m confused, I see Friday’s bounce off the low as the 3rd highest buy day volume for the year. 24.2m GLD volume, 3rd to the all time gold high on April 29th with 27.6m and the IT cycle Low launch on Jan 28th with 28m. SO that’s the 3rd best up volume day of the year!
I agree with Gary. It has been my experience that very hard sell-offs almost always have a test of some sort. There are a lot of people in SLV right now who will sell at any hint of weakness as they are scarred/scared. That usually results in pressure down towards the low where it either dries up or—gulp—doesn’t. The straight up ones are more likely to fail as they have not gotten a chance to get out.
As it stands, a minor correction and a continued run up would be the best scenario to leave the most people chasing. Exactly how a bull should behave on a blow off top.
Gary said that this correction would leave people thinking D wave, and it has more than delivered.
Funny headline and 1st sentence over on MarketWatch:
****************
How to Invest in a Post-Crisis World
The financial crisis is over.
****************
The bilge that gets pumped out through the media is truly extraordinary.
Does it not bother anybody that everybody is expecting a hard sell off to position for a more durable bottom? Not just here but on other blogs with other successful traders.
Why can’t this be the slow wall of worry climb out? the action looks like a capture of the bots with these tiny candles, then bursts.
Dollar LOD
jhnewman,
Thank you very much for sharing your set ups.
RLK
Just for clarity’s sake: When I posted earlier today that my dollar/short signal had worn off it did not mean the dollar should rally, just that the “short now” conditions had eased. Usually the item goes down anyway to “honor” the signal, and I would expect the dollar to do so as well. I just would never initiate a new position once the conditions creating the sell have passed.
BLH, It has been said before that the metals come off cycle lows very slowly, instead of bursts like the general market. Everywhere you look, the same call is being made.
RLK: you’re welcome. Good luck!
sold a small agq position at 221. back to scalps until something shakes loose.
P.S. To be honest, I have a couple of indicators and variations that I’ve developed that I didn’t put in that post. It was meant as a good basic setup for those starting out and more intermediate than that.
I certainly don’t consider myself a really “advanced” swing trader, but with Gary and Docs cycle work, and some other improvements I’m working on, I feel I’m getting there.
That cycle analysis is absolutely killer knowledge, in my opinion.
jhnewman-
One other trick in StockCharts (I’m no expert, but am the king of trial and many errors)…when drawing a box, push and hold the control key and you’ll get a filled highlight box instead of rectangular square lines.
And sorry to say it…when I saw the ‘newman’ in your name, my thoughts immediately went to the Newman in Seinfeld… 😉
Silver and the ETF are not tracking.
Is that any kind of a warning sign???
At 3:28 eastern time –
$SILVER = +3.85 %
SLV = +1.92%
Any ideas why??
T.J.: Thanks.
And actually, that’s the way my handle is usually interpreted — which can be fun. At another site, someone found me a GREAT picture of Newman to use as my avatar, and I did for a while. But it caused so much reaction that I found myself “playing Newman” for people throughout the day and not focusing on trading. Not a great idea. So I dumped that avatar.
PK: You have to be careful of stuff like that as things close at different times. The % change is versus the previous close. If one item closes at 2:15 and the other at 4:00, and there’s been movement between the two times, they might appear to not be tracking but are.
They’re based off two different market closing times, that’s all.
Not liking this decreasing volume in silver and gold futures. The ETFs have volume divergence too! I think we could see a bear flag and another push down yet. ;-(
Gold also tagged the 50% fib retrace and came off. I would expect it to test the full 61% retrace after a sell off like that though?
The higher gld & slv go, the lower the volume gets. Third day of counter bounce & third day of declining volume. On top of that PMs refusing to go green.
“A bear flag”. Where?
S&P just tagged the 61% retrace too. Currently putting in a Shooting Star on the H1 chart. Could be bearish. Could suggest a tad more USD strength in the offing. Maybe that 3yr cycle low is in??
Folks you need to resign yourself to the fact that silver isn’t coming back. Broken parabola’s don’t recover.
Get that through your head.
At this point we are dealing with a severely diminished risk reward scenario. Unless gold tests the lows we just don’t have much if any edge and not a hell of a lot of profit potential.
I’m going to go over this in depth tonight.
Agree Gary – I think the silver bull could be busted. This small rally could offer a short position as it could be an extended 1-2-3 set-up short again.
I would rather wait and go long via a USD ETF and probably short AUDUSD in my spread betting account.
Beanie isn’t going to like this, but I’m getting closer to shorting tech stocks every time I take a peek at the market.
Silver tagged the 50 DMA this afternoon. I would expect the sellers to step back in at that point.
SB, what do you see in tech?
Gary,
Question is, how far will it bounce and how low can it go after…
Added a few more slv puts and started a small short position. Hope to keep adding to this over the next few days if action continues to be weak like this.
Gary,
I don’t believe anybody today is talking Silver!
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people who are buying silver puts, what puts are you buying? the OTM slv july ones?
Gary
What happened to the 41.33 Bollinger band crash trade? Is that off the table now? This was supposed to have a 94% chance of occurring?
Thanks
Broken parabolas usually overshoot the mean depending on how far they stretched above it. I think there is a good chance silver dips to $21 especially if gold is no in a D-wave and even if gold isn’t it will be soon. That will drive silver much much lower.
The sad fact is the a combination of events led to us missing a big chunk of the move. No way to undo it now so we just have to get back to work.
Eamonn,
Just that stocks in general get sold off around this time of year, and cyclicals should get hit worst than most, combined with overbought weekly stochastics.
Also, leading sectors like miners can’t seem to get it together on the upside. However, I won’t short miners so tech might be a good place to focus.
I haven’t sold them yet but getting more interested every day. 🙂
JH,
And isn`t it amazing how many people buy it? Utterly amazing.
F,
Certainly not off the table but I think sellers are going to probably drive it down before it goes up and even then it’s not going back to $50.
I’m going to go over this in depth in tonight’s report.
$SILVER = +3.85 %
SLV = +1.92%
Different closing time.
Gary I heard someone on the blog talk junk about AGQ(Forget who) saying it is just a short term vehicle.
But lets say we do see silver that low 20ish and I see AGQ at lets say 125 and I believe that in the next 3 years spot silver will be at or above 50 dollars, couldn’t I just jump in to AGQ and come back to my computer in three years?
Thanks, my “balls of steel” just turned to glass!
just a quick note-then dinner 🙂
I sold mostly everything because its right at a point where I thought I would question it , and I’m not getting clear answers.
BOBFROM HAWAII said, “…Does it not bother anybody that everybody is expecting a hard sell ..”
I am actually expecting a ‘mild sell off’/ Retest to shake out the sellers who held on last time and “dont wanna ride that down again”
For me personally..AG and EXK look like they could be great AFTER filling the 2 gaps below.
BUT..BOBHAWAII could be correct about..”Why can’t this be the slow wall of worry climb out? “
I look at the IT low of Jan 25th and ‘AG’ looks EXACTLY like that , and THAT looks exactly like today.
Time will tell, it’s not CLEAR to me, but I tend to see a retest of the low first (or at least a pullback from here, gap fills).
I sold AG, but this is a very BULLISH case for it–
http://www.screencast.com/t/tm0ozoxjkD
Sell case for it–
http://www.screencast.com/t/6HZeBRuiP
If silver goes to low $20s AGQ will be at $50 if you’re lucky.
You need a strongly trending bull to hold a leveraged ETF.
Haggerty,
All the leveraged ETF’s leak. Buying some “leaps” would accomplish that goal nicely.
Thank you, SB. I’m interested in learning how to profit from declining markets and seeing how it differs from bull markets which is what we are stuck in right now.
I would think that silver goes to 42$, gold to 1570$ and then lower.
If this happens, it is quite possible that this time everyone will jump ship and that silver will be in the 22-25$ range and gold in the 1275-1325$ range.
Grain of salt yadda yadda…
David 50 dollars on AGQ I would sell my house and live an a studio for till the next C wave was over. Leak or not
You can only own AGQ in an A-wave and the last stage of a C-wave.
And even in an A-wave, the miners will probably outperform AGQ. SLW outperformed AGQ in the last A-wave.
In my opinion, it’s time to forget AGQ entirely for the next year and a half. I’ve taken it off my screen.
Haggerty,
You will definitely get that opportunity!
😉
Notgreedisgood,
I’m buying OTM October puts as I am already very heavy in ITM July puts from before we hit the $50 highs sitting on big profts but if we contine higher with this continued weakness I will become more aggressive. You really need to look at your own situation, options are sinking boats so don’t get in them aggressively unless you’ve swam in these waters before. The big money is always made on the upside in bull markets & there will plenty more opportunities down the road.
H,
No you can’t buy AGQ in that scenario. AGQ is only when the trend is moving strongly higher. Any sideways consolidation will eat you up.
“The higher gld & slv go, the lower the volume gets. Third day of counter bounce & third day of declining volume. On top of that PMs refusing to go green.”
My exact thoughts. There are less and less buyers pushing prices up. This has a look and feel of a short covering rally.
I guess I will exercise caution, it just sounds very cheap
David,
And what’s wrong with DZZ, ZSL, inverse ETF’s WITH stops in downtrend?
With stops, they can go to zero?
I dont see anyone cheering silver here Gary, but I do own calls in Silver myself, and believe that it will take out 50 by mid June.
Should be interesting.
Everybody wants SLV puts, their price has skyrocketed and the volume is huge now. Everybody going to make a killing.
2 weeks ago a $35 Oct put was $1 and you couldn’t give them away….few days ago they were paying $5.
Intern,
I’m not sure I understand the question.
If you have stops in place, then obviously they can’t go to zero. Over time, of course, they will all go down 99% — ZSL already has.
Personally, I would avoid ZSL and DZZ, because it’s a lot harder to short a volatile asset in practice than in theory, even in a D-wave. Eventually there’s going to be a vicious short-covering rally like we’ve just seen, and it’s going to take a huge bite out of your profits.
Our friend Beanie has just discovered how easy it is to lose money shorting silver. He bought ZSL on Thursday night and is now down (presumably) 25%. I’m sure it seemed like a sure thing to him at the time, but he’s going to have to make 33% just to break even.
The sad thing is, this is one of the few times when he’s gotten the trend right, and he’s still managed to lose money.
My advice is to buy some combination of UUP and EUO, ride them through the summer, then lever up on miners for the A-wave in August.
Folks,
If silver is in a ‘D’ wave, the low at 33 will get tested so if you’re long silver you are essentially fading the short term trend. Yes, it can run up a bit more but when the ‘D’ wave establish itself again most of you will get caught long.
Gary,
You often point out that a daily cycle low should be spotted from across the room. I like that analogy, it makes sense.
Take that idea further, the C-Wave blow-offs and subsequent D-Waves scream at you on all charts.
If we’ve topped into a C-Wave, it sure as hell is not going to scream at me from the across the room. I would think a C-Wave top would need to accomplish that.
David,
Looking for alternative for D wave.
EUO is also an ultra short, but less volatile instrument?
Thanks
Silver have tested the 200 dma on every single D wave since this bull started in 1999. The 200 dma is at 28.58.
Poly,
Trust me once the D-wave gets going good it will scream at you from across the room.
I’m not saying gold can’t still go to new highs. What I’m telling you is that the risk reward advantage is now gone. If you want to try and catch the final little spurt do so with a small position but make sure you have plenty of capital intact for the A-wave. That’s now where the really big money will be made.
Don’t take a chance with your capital and if you are wrong have nothing left for the A-wave.
Intern,
EUO is ultra short, but currencies such as the Euro are much less volatile than silver, so the short-covering rallies will be less vicious. Your chances of buying, holding and actually making money are greater.
The Euro is also fundamentally flawed, whereas silver is not. Silver will one day go to $200. The Euro is going to hell. You can sleep easier being short the Euro than Silver.
Shorting is very, very difficult. You do not want to get greedy on the short side or you will be punished severely. Save your greed for the A- and C-waves.
You should probably use some combination of UUP and EUO, to suit your own risk tolerance. The idea here is not to get rich in the D-wave, but to make 20 or even 30%, then score a 100% gain in the A-wave.
I did not experience the 70’s gold bull as I was too young, I just have good long term charts.Pima, I just follow the 9 day displaced average as it seems to catch big upmoves early. I’m sure some others work very well as it forms a cycle of sorts.
I want to bring up another reason why I don’t think a D wave would/could possibly go down to $21. This time my argument is less technical, but more intuitive.
Obviously I am a silver bull like all of us here, and I believe silver is the investment of the decade.
In 2006, after the correction (which would have been a mild one in comparison if 2011 takes us from 50 to 21) I bought silver at an average price of $10. If five years later silver would be just north of $20, silver would have only doubled in half a decade. How could silver be a) the investment of the decade and b) get to $300 in the next half decade if it appreciates at such a slow rate?
Gary,
I hear you and appreciate your word.
I’ve heard you say countless times past 2 years that a D-Wave is a large reversion to the mean event that occurs at the end of a C-Wave only. The C-Wave blows off, causing the D-Wave.
I’m saying, looking at any chart, short and long, I just don’t see anything that scream C-Wave blow off top. So this one would be a first, even if it goes up to test the highs.
I’m not trying to predict the price, just jotting down observations.
Gary,
Will you consider adding 2 model portfolios to SMT Premium newsletter rather than one. One can be moderate and other little more aggressive.
That way subs would have little more choice in terms of information available to make their choices & decisions.
Gary,
Like Freedomgrave I’m a little confused..understand your response about silver going to 21..don’t understand the timetable given mention of the BB trade w/ silver having a 94% chance of tagging 41.33 with in ELEVEN days. Which comes first..21 or 41.33?
basil,
Silver just went from $8.00 to $49.50 in a little over two years.
Moreover, silver appreciated 700% in the final parabolic bubble in 1980. Gary is saying that we are still years away from even starting our parabolic bubble this time.
Poly,
We’ve just had a parabolic top. It didn’t happen in gold, it happened in silver. So the situation is a little ambiguous.
However, as Gary always says, the key driver here is the dollar. The dollar recently hit .92 of its 200dma — the point from which every dollar rally started in the past. Bearishness on the dollar is at absurd highs.
We are on the eve of a dollar rally — of that there is no question. So being short the dollar (which is what we effectively are doing) amounts to dancing on the edge of a volcano.
SB,
While I don’t disagree with your investment outlook, I have to laugh when I imagine this crew sitting in UUP. I had a position in that last year and watched it grow from $23 to $25 (3.5% annualized) over a period of 3 1/2 months. For those that have accustomed to the price movements of AGQ, this one is a real sleeper.
David,
I don’t get too involved in Silver, I got out of that trade at $42, so i know it’s tendandcy to burn!
As for dancing on a dollar volcano, you may be right, or better still the cycles and the 3yr low might be right. But for me, I’ve watched this dollar go lower and lower and lower while Gold has gone higher and higher. So for now, until somebody shows me the money, I will keep cashing the money.
When the trend finally changes, I will be there too.
How low it will go is debatable but history tells us this will hit the 200dmva at the minimum. Considering the bubble has already burst, I think the risk/reward heavily favors the downside for those who can withstand some potential short term pain.
David,
How did you handle last week? Still holding on?
David,
I think it didn’t go down quite to $8 in 2008, but yes you are right – from an absolute low after an Armageddon type crash in 2008 to the absolute high of this bull so far it more than 5-bagged. I am not measuring from the 2008 low, which Gary describes as a once in a lifetime crash; instead I am measuring from my personal entry point at a low after the silver crash of 2006 to Gary’s price target after an assumed silver crash of 2011; that is low to low and that would be a meager double in price. I bought at a great price low five years ago into the perhaps greatest trade of our lifetime and then get a double from the 2006 low to the 2011 low?
I just don’t see any reason why that should come true.
My sister sent me an email this morning asking me if she should buy gold or silver now. A friend asked me two days ago if it is time to get into silver now and if I could let him know when I’ll get back in; and I posted here about three weeks or so ago about a conversation that I overheard at the local grocery store between two employees about their PM investments. The investing public is clearly awakening to what’s going on.
A price decline from 49.50 to 21 would really shock me as I could not grasp what conditions could drive the price down that far when we all expect to see way higher prices and possibly a final top in 2015 (that’s not even half a decade from now).
Poly,
I think we’ve already established that this C-wave is unlikely to exhibit the usually parabolic blow off top. In pure duration and magnitude this C-wave has done everything we could possibly ask of it.
Again not to say we can’t get one more push up to $1600+. I’m just saying the big money isn’t going to be made from $1520 to $1620. The big money will be made from $1300 to $1600 during the A-wave.
I’m saying make sure you get to the A-wave with a big wad of cash.
i was thinking I would rather buy puts in AGQ … anyone going that route ? Just the daily grind will drag it lower once it hits its top.
Gary,
When and how was that established? As of recent posts, this was going to be the biggest blow off of this 10 year bull market.
You have valid points and will probably be right with your cycle experience, but do not try to make it sound as if this “new setup” is normal or what you expected, because it is not.
For now at least, I’m only trading this to a double top, that is a safe and very profitable trade that few want to touch. Any big D-wave collapse should come from up there.
I got out of most of my AGQ several weeks ago at $295. I held onto a tiny portion, which I unloaded today at $219. My cost basis was $175ish, so I did okay on that.
I bought UGL with the proceeds from AGQ a few weeks ago. I sold half that position today at a very modest profit.
I also sold a lot of EXK at $10.07 that I bought at $1.50 back in 2008.
I sold a little bit of NUGT at a small loss.
In general, I am slowly phasing out of anything related to silver, and any leveraged ETFs. I will hold onto my gold miners a little longer to see if a more durable rally can happen in gold. The risk in the gold miners is pretty limited at this point.
Keep in mind that I have no idea what’s going to happen next. We could be in a C-wave or a D-wave. Silver could well go to $50 for all I know.
But risk is something you can dial up and down — you don’t have to be all-in on every hand. Right now the situation is very uncertain, so your risk should be limited, until things become clearer.
To Basil’s point, I read that during this recent selloff in silver, physical silver was still selling at a large premium to spot and silver rounds were still difficult to find for much under $40. It’s hard to imagine the price now falling to $21 now that the general public is starting to wake up to the dollar crisis and the need for physical precious metals in one’s portfolio.
Gary,
an A wave in gold from 1300 to 1600 sounds better to me and more realistic than 1100 on the low end.
What downside target do you believe is more likely, 1100s or 1300? The latter would take silver at $21 off the table, right?
To get from $21 in 2011/12 to say $300 in 2015 would be a 1500% move in three years – that would be 3000% in AGQ.
PS: That is to say that I don’t think a 1,500% rise in silver or a 3,000% rise in AGQ is realistic within a period of say three years (2012 after the correction until 2015, the next cycle top). Not to mention the higher estimates for silver (750+) or gold (around 10,000). If the bull ends with the next cycle top in 2015, how could that ever be achieved?
A solid way to play the next A + C Waves would be to buy a nice chunk of ATM Leaps right at the depths of the D-Wave.
Come back in 2 years at the parabolic top. Old turkey style with great leverage and limited risk due to entry.
Poly,
would you mind explaining what that is?
Thx
basil,
You’re looking only at the demand side. You should also look at the supply side. A ton of scrap silver is coming onto the market right now — people selling silverware, etc. Miners can be expected to hedge. Industrial users of silver are looking for alternatives.
I have always found that bull markets go much higher than anyone expects and bear markets go much lower. If you’d told anyone in 2000 that the Nasdaq would be at 1200 in 2008, they’d never believe you — or they’d say it could only happen if technology came to an end and we went into a stone age. That hasn’t happened.
I also think you should be very careful about using price targets for AGQ. AGQ is not going to $3000. The decay will drag it waaay back on every downtrend. SLW will definitely outperform AGQ over the long-term.
When it comes to silver, I think it’s wise to just watch and wait.
Silver tends to underperform at the beginning of a cycle anyway. There’s no hurry to get back into it.
Look at it this way: if silver is going to $200, it won’t matter much if you buy it at $20 or at $25. The key is not to lose 40% of your money watching it fall from $38 to $21.
At the money options. The “leap” options expire some 2-3 years out, so you can buy, hold and forget them.
This was in response to holding decaying AGQ long term and coming back years later.
loser asking for more money?
Poly,
Lose your bias for a minute, step back and look at what’s going on. the silver parabola has broken. Should that have happened if we were still going to see a parabolic blow off top?
The dollar is clearly putting in at least an intermediate cycle low and probably the three year cycle low. What are the chance of a parabolic rally if the dollar is rallying out of a major bottom?
Folks need to stop picking pennies in front of a steam roller.
Poly, looking at OptionsXpress, the furthest out leap SLV call option is Jan 2013.
Is it possible to buy options that go further out to the future? eg 2020?
David,
Nasdaq crashed and burned because it entered a long term bear market. Being invested in the last bull market, as Gary calls it, I would not expect comparable downdrafts, even with silver’s volatility, particularly with many silver bulls (including Gary) having these very high price targets for the bull.
As for AGQ, I did not mean $3,000. I meant 3,000 % gain from a low of the coming D wave at $21 (which I don’t believe is coming) to a medium price target of $300 at the next C wave cycle top, which is scheduled for 2015 and which might be the ultimate top for this gold and silver bull. That would be 3,000% in three years in AGQ from low to top (after the downward and sideways depreciation in AGQ). Obviously everyone would take that trade, but I am making the point that there seems to be the need for an overly optimistic view in regards to a run up in price between a low target of $21 in 2011/12 and a medium target of 2015 of $300. I am not saying this is exactly what Gary is expecting, but condensing the messages I am getting here, these seem to be the price targets and the time frames. I feel that this would either require an extreme view or would be illogical, one or the other.
Gary, if you read this, if you could elaborate on your longer term views in one of your reports, or if you can answer it here, I would very much appreciate.
I may be biased, but I’m still trading with the still standing trend and facts. Plus I give Bull markets the benefit of doubt, not the other way around. You’re making assumptions on where the cycles will fail and throwing out price targets.
I ignore the Silver mania, it’s secondary and yes I can see it breaking with gold still going onto a blow off, heck it happened in past C-waves, why could it not again!
As for the dollar, yes I see the rally near those lows and it is certainly “showing” that the low could be in. But it still has not confirmed and could just as we roll over. Heck it could all roll over for another IT cycle for all we know, QE2 is not everything, certainly the 3 yr cycles have not been waiting for QE2.
The situation is clouded I grant you that and I’m not taking the C-Wave blow-off top stand. But let’s not get married to the idea that it’s all over, until the trend shows us it is or the cycles fail signaling the collapse. Until then, I trade with the wind.
David,
I would not buy silver at $38 at this time. While it always sucks to watch it go up in leaps after such a steep decline while not being invested, I will wait for it to correct further, hoping that Gary’s cycles come true. However, somewhere between $33 and $21 there is a huge chance to miss the boat. In 2009 many smart people kept waiting for a further decline that never came, and that includes me. This time and particularly because of the fundamentals of silver, I am in the more optimistic camp.
What if it bottoms at $31? How long will you keep waiting for the low 20s before you capitulate at perhaps 35, 40, 45?
“Folks need to stop picking pennies in front of a steam roller.”
Where were you last week, that was the danger setup!
“Where were you last week, that was the danger setup!”
Out picking pennies in front of a steam roller.
🙂
Good comment, EricH.
Long term I like silver and most commodities for that matter, but the dynamics have broken on silver for now even if I wish otherwise.
Fact is, less people are interested in squeezing the last action out of this bull run. Just look around, I’m not buying for any hold more than 2 weeks, Gary isn’t buying, David is selling, and so on. We might be wrong, but there are certainly less traders interested that will push prices up.
I think it’s because even if prices rocketed, we would not feel the need to chase as we know everybody is looking to exit the “c-wave blowoff”. In effect, prices go down or they go up first, then puke. Even the bulls know they are selling very soon. It’s risk I’m not interested in taking right now. Gary said it well, protect a pile of cash ready to put to work for the A-wave.
Gary,
playing devil’s advocate… the ascending trendline in silver since August 2010 is still intact. The dollar, as far as I understand you, could potentially fall further and change trends at a later date; if or if not is a political speculation (QE continued or not). That leaves enough time for PMs to appreciate further.
Eamon,
No 2 to 3 years is the most, but you just roll them over to the longest dated option as they become available each year.
Poly, Thx for the explanation.
Basil,
My expectation is for a fianl gold price of between 5000 and 7000. If the gold:silver ration can drop to 25 by that time then we could see silver priced at $200 to $300.
A big chunk of those gains will come during the bubble phase. During the last bubble silver rallied from $6 to $50 in the last year.
Poly, thank you :o) You seem to be the person here who knows a whole lot of stuff about options
And just to clarify, I could very well go long metals at any time (I’ll post), but not for a move in silver to $50. More like a swing trade if I can buy silver or gold into a pullback and retest of the lows.
Still, it’s a trade that will only amount to chicken feed compared to what’s on the horizon if I remain patient. 🙂
Basil,
That’s why I don’t have a price target.
Gary’s $21 seems too low to me, your $31 a little too high, but who knows? There are a variety of macroeconomic factors that will influence that number — a burst of unexpected deflation at the end of QE2, or the introduction of QE3. Most of those factors don’t even exist yet, so how can anyone know where silver should bottom out?
That’s why I’m going to sit back and look for telltale signs that silver is bottoming. I’ll wait for it to break the 200dma, then I’ll watch the silver stocks. When they start to go up even as silver goes down, that’s a classic tell.
I probably will phase in over a period of several weeks, because it’s very difficult to time these things precisely.
We also know that a D-wave lasts 6-8 weeks. By that time, we should be able to say for sure when the D-wave began (possibly last week) and come up with a timing band for a bottom.
Seasonality will also be a factor. Mid-summer is always a good time to buy metals. I expect that to be doubly true this time around.
All in all, there’s no need for price targets. Time and not price will be the deciding factor.
Gary,
Speaking of bias, I waiting to hear how the dollar bottomed above the last low, given all that “printing” Bernake wasn’t “going to get away with”.
wes
i was wanting to go long the dollar when gold was done. i really dont know where we are at this point on anything.
i may just have to buy into the a wave at 2,000
The only way of catching the bottom once silver gets under the 200dmva is if we have a very high volume day after a several days of declines. This sometimes happens, sometimes doesnt so buying in over several weeks will be the ideal approach. I personally will not apply any leverage or leveraged ETFs until we get into the late summer. I may however try to play the overbought and oversold bounces as I think silver will consolidate for a few months.
My bet is that gold miners will lead in the A-wave, not silver.
These things tend to rotate, and as I said before, silver only outperforms late in the cycle.
People are still fixated on silver because that’s where the action was for the past year. But as the saying goes, you have to look where the puck is going to be, not where it’s just been.
David,
I completely agree and this is argument I was trying to make when I said that all the speculative capital went into silver this time around. These things always rotate so I would not be surprised to see gold or the PM stocks outperform next go around.
Today I had some time to look at the indices. I really cannot see anything that looks anything but positive.
Also, in my opinion there is way too much bearishness in the silver trade right now for the bears to succeed.
The ‘silver is done’ bias is out there; not a good precondition for another waterfall decline.
Silver’s not done, but if you are a student of market history, you know that parabolic tops tend to end in epic crashes followed by lengthy consolidations.
That doesn’t happen in four days.
Wes,
That one is easy. Go take a look at dollar sentiment on sentimentrader.com.
Any turn in the dollar is not preconceived in the indices at all at this point. If a jump in the dollar and a drop in stocks is coming it will have to come out of the blue as far as the charts are concerned. The stock market is not at all anticipating this.
Interesting watching the arguments fly back and forth.
One thing I always ask myself is “Am I trying too hard to rationalize my own beliefs?”
“Contradictions do not exist. Whenever you think you are facing a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong.” – Ayn Rand
The stock market tends to falter last. Commodities are definitely signaling an approaching bottom.
It’s hard to say when that’s going to happen — maybe two weeks, maybe it’s already happened — but it’s close. Sentiment, .92 below the 200dma — it’s close.
There is a lot more upside for the dollar right now than downside. If you want to hang out in precious metals a little longer, go ahead, but be very cognizant of the risks.
David,
I agree, but are you sure that this was a / the parabolic top already? We fell back close enough to the ascending trend line established since August 2010 and bounced right off it. We did not break it. A crash from a parabolic top would have to break that trend line; so the jury on that is still out. Right now, you could still say that the trend is your friend and that is still up since late last summer.
Don’t get me wrong, I am not invested here, so I am torn over this. I do hate to watch the train leave the station without me though, and right now I don’t see any train stops ahead. Are we just practicing wishful thinking because the waterfall decline left us emotionally affected and now we want to see more of it? Isn’t the bull doing all to throw us off – and did he just do exactly that?
David,
I see the danger in being invested. Being torn means I am not convinced either way. Some times that is the worst and some times that is the best time to invest. Which one is it?
We did have a parabola. Of that there is no question. We saw silver triple in the space of less than a year.
The parabola definitely broke last Monday. It crashed 33%. Even if it somehow returns to $50, it broke.
There are very few instances that I can think of of a broken parabola returning to new highs. 2006 is the only instance I’ve ever heard of.
At some point you have to think in terms of probabilities. If 95% of broken parabolas end up 60% lower within months, are you really going to bet on the 5% chance that this one won’t?
The only way “the train is leaving the station” is if this is the FINAL blow-off, the super-bubble that takes silver 700% in a year. I don’t believe that’s the case here.
In short, buying silver right now represents a gamble, not an investment. It’s just not safe. There are far better plays from a risk-reward standpoint, like gold miners. The fact that nobody here has any desire whatsoever to own or even discuss gold miners should tell you something.
I’ll bet if everyone had to list their current portfolio positions, the bias to their arguments would be obvious…
Dan,
You probably have not been with Gary long, but one thin he can do better than anybody, is pick a bottom. Often, to the very day!
PS: During all of 2009 and 2010 and even until today, there remained always many good reasons for the stock market to correct, yet it kept going up while all the fundamentals seemed to look terrible. Of course, in hindsight it all looks different, and now we can all explain it with QE.
Now we find lots of good reasons for silver to correct massively into a D wave bottom. All these are good reasons, just like the bears had good reasons to believe the stock market rally wasn’t for real.
Anyway, don’t want to overdo making my point.
Marc,
I’ve already disclosed all that.
I own gold and silver miners, along with a leveraged gold etf.
I have been selling them into this rally, but I still have plenty of exposure.
I plan to keep selling until I see the miners start outperforming the metals. If they don’t start outperforming very soon, I will sell everything and go long the dollar via UUP and EUO.
David,
agreed. As I said, torn and undecided, which is usually not the time I force a decision, and I won’t.
AGQ used to be my favorite; I certainly won’t touch it here. Miners used to be my least favorite, and I am beginning to like some of them. So I guess we’re on the same page as far as the question where to invest.
It’s certainly been a worthwhile debate, for me at least.
As you have pointed out in the past, it’s rare to get real discussion in forums like these, as opposed to simply bullish cheerleading and/or bearish trolling.
At turning points like these, getting a variety of opinions from folks like Gary, Poly, DG, and SB are invaluable.
The next few days should tell the tale.
SLW’s 4 hour chart looks just like the bottom back in Jan. Weird.
I’m still hanging on with 60% position in gold and silver miners. They just can’t get any kind of bounce going here. I’d take a decent hit as I’m down 14% since getting these.
I may sell and regroup like others here.
Seems like Gary’s recent comments here are showing me he’s throwing in the towel.
Let’s see what this evenings report says.
I sold AGQ quite close to the top and went to DGP, which I then sold when AGQ began to drop (fortunately DGP had not declined much at all at that point).
Unfortunately, I kept a 20% position in AGQ, which I sold way too late. A 20% position was not small enough to not regret keeping it, but yet it was not big enough a position to go totally nuts over the loss.
I am all cash. I have also kept my physical and will keep it until this bull is completely done.
Basil,
Sounds like you did spectacularly well, all things considered. Congratulations.
To anyone,
Can anyone, pray tell, give a good/realistic/non-TA reason(s) why the dollar would go up? Other than interest rate hikes, which are still way down the road.
Thanks.
Forjan
Not bad Basil.
I actually got out around the time Poly did (silver 42) out of all positions. Was waiting to re enter, watched silver go nuts without me. Bought into miners on the FED day so I’m down 14% on those new positions (60% invested). Bought GLD, SLV calls last week on the dip (but not at the bottom, underwater on those).
I’m actually not liking this action and may just go to cash Wed.
Decisions.
Sure, the three year cycle low is in.
David-
The Euro getting clobbered would do the trick. Just like last Spring.
Because every other major currency on Earth is just as bad.
Sentiment on the dollar is too extreme. Too many people are leaning against it right now.
And nothing ever goes straight down, no matter how impaired it is.
We are in a dance between inflation and deflation, and it’s deflation’s turn to lead right now.
Thanks, David. Considering that there are always some unnecessary mistakes and errors on the way, yes, I am happy.
Unfortunately there is never much room for excitement in this game. Whenever it feels almost perfect is almost always the time to sell 🙂
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Gary,
That’s a technical reason. I’m wondering what’s a real world reason?
Forjan
How about the Fed says they are pausing or ceasing QE, or an interest rate hike. That would cause the dollar to rally.
Poly,
I do think gold will outperform later this year even if the dollar is rising.
Gold is going to be very attractive to our Euro friends if the PIIGS thing re-ignites, because it’s very cheap in Euro terms right now.
The dollar rally could last a year, but the D-wave should only last two months at most.
GLD vs UUP last Spring during the Europe mess.
http://screencast.com/t/yGtoRz3OTTf
Is it critical that there be a fundamental reason?
There wasn’t one in 05 and the dollar rallied for a year. There certainly wasn’t one in early 08 but the dollar rallied.
Jahawk,
wishing you that you’ll make up for that loss quickly!!!
But if you want one I can give you one … deflation.
As soon as the Fed ends QE2 deflation is going to slam back down on the world.
Since mid-December I’ve done far better on my general equity investments than I have in the gold and silver stocks (with much less aggravation as well). That may continue for all I know.
I get the impression non-pm stocks are despised here. Why?
Gary,
why?
Apart from governments, are those who have received the benefits from QE so far, really still indebted?
Wouldn’t a new deflationary whiff require banks and corporate America to still be out of money? I am not sure they are at this point in time.
Ma,
depends on the sector, I think.
Gary,
how and why would the (temporary) withdrawel of QE cause deflation?
I can see that it would kill some money flow in financial markets, but it’s not like what’s been printed would just disappear overnight. Or what am I missing?
Gold Miners
I bought the absolute bottom in the GDX back in 2008. I went 100% full-in. Those stocks were just puked up by everyone. I owned them until early this year when I saw they were laggards. That is ok. I git a triple out of them.
I’m with David “IF” the miners are dirt cheap. If gold drops to 1,250 to 1,300 and the miners are are down 10% to 15% from here I won’t touch them. Knock the GDX into the high 30’s and the HUI back to 375 and I’ll buy them.
Basil-
At this point…just getting out with a small loss looks appealing. Did you read Gary’s report? White flag time.
M-
I freaking hate miners after the last few months and would love to ride something else. Please post any good ideas.
I still think silver will break through 50 on this C-wave.
Today silver almost tag the 50ma.
I expect it to break through tomorrow. If silver breaks down then my thesis is no longer valid.
So we’ll see. I am currently invested in AGQ
James
Gary,
The reason I made a distinction between real world and technical analysis is the same reason they say art IMITATES life. The real world informs technical analysis, not the other way around. The real world squashed the “C-wave of all C-waves.” The real world squashed “silver cutting thru $50 like a hot knife thru butter.” The real world, as I expect in tonite’s report, will squash the Bollinger, 94% chance of silver hitting 42 within 13 days expectation.
Plus the dollar has already shown it’s weak as regards the Euro, there have been plenty of situations lately where the Euro was very weak and the dollar didn’t rise. And all that printing of money should still result in hyperinflation, which you and many others have predicted. And a 3 year cycle low can just also be a 3 1/2 year cycle low. No?
And by the way, there are still some very strong currencies out there to take up the investment slack, Australia, Brazil, China, Turkey, Indonesia and more.
My point is that even if the dollar rises, how much can it realistically rise in the next few months?
Thanks
Forjan
There will be a deflationary whiff no matter what, even during massive hyperinflation.
Everybody knows metals are going higher eventually, which is what makes a secular bull mkt. At the same time, many bulls realize a “D-wave” or pullback is coming, which is a self-fulfilling prophecy. So the only debate among SMT’ers is long and strong now, or later?
A traders’ need to trade and make ground every day is a weakness, IMO. My hold times have been pulled in drastically, and others are choosing to conserve for the A-wave by not trading.
All said, I’ll buy metals into dips, but rather than hold I’ll sell into strength even though I believe in the long term bull. That means I trade only the long side, not that I should hold forever or press my luck because it’s a bull.
Price levels are not as important as direction, which is unclear to all of us right now.
Gary, you said (today):
“IMO natural gas is locked in a trading range. Currency debasement is trying to force it up while huge oversupply is trying to take it down.
The result is a market that is oscillating back and forth in a range.
In a range bound market the best strategy is to sell overbought conditions and buy oversold.
We will probably use this strategy after the next B-wave has run it’s course.”
Should you have said the A-wave and not the B-wave here?
Gary,
good report. good move.
Jayhawk,
yes, just read it. Makes sense to me.
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To sum up, we all want to guess the next $10 in silver, whether up or down, while the big money will be made buying the D-wave bottom or close.
Can you stay patient, or must you always be invested even with no edge?
E,
It’s the period after the B-wave where gold enters a long consolidation period.
Gary,
Is it possible to reword the last sentence in your nightly report a little more clearly so it better imparts your meaning? Thanks.
Why will there be deflation? Well because the banking sector is still insolvent and requires and endless stream of free cash from the Fed to stay afloat. The stock market is rising on free money. Take it away and it will deflate. The same with the economy.
We saw what happens when QE ends last summer. Does anyone think this time will be different. The same thing happened during the Great Depression. Every time stimulus was removed the economy started to wallow again.
driven,
What wasn’t clear to you?
What! There is a report. Stinking twitter. 🙂
Gary,
point taken; just wondering if the banks have not yet had enough dough blown up their rear to be liquid even if QE is paused?
SB:
An interesting point. I can ponder that awhile.
Thanks,
Forjan
No matter how much free money the fed throws at them it’s not going to make bad loans good.
Gary,
Will you short the most stretched stocks above the 200 DMA when the D-Wave starts like you said before?
Are you still considering this strategy or will hold your capital for the A-Wave.
Gary,
Nice report, I respect the position and it has a very clear logical basis.
The 7% to the high’s is 14% on UGL. It’s volatility is not Silver (AGQ), so a trade on the swing (confirmed cycle low) with fairly tight stops could also offer a decent risk/reward trade. Two sides to the view.
I will not be shorting the stock market at this time.
So, if I’ve got this correct, inflation has been solved by 4 rate hikes in silver.
What a hoot.
There never was any inflation, only the fear of inflation.
And high commodity prices are not inflation, and will never be inflation, no matter how many times Gary says so.
You need credit expansion for inflation, and there has been none.
Please check out this link:
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/5/10_Richard_Russell_-_Expect_Huge_Rebound_in_Silver.html
Russel makes my point that I stated here earlier, which is that silver has not broken the ascending trend line from August 2010.
When you look at the chart it doesn’t really say D wave, does it?
What if the dollar goes down or sideways until the fall? Is silver really finished or is it still good to go for the time being?
Thanks, Veronica.
I messed around with displaced moving averages for a while, but haven’t used them recently. I will start tracking the 9 day against gold.
No credit expansion? Are you kidding?
What do you call the multi trillions the government has tacked on in the last several years?
That is debt expansion with a capital E.
Do you think all that money just sits nowhere. The government is spending like a drunken sailor trying to prop up the economy. Part of the liquidity is finding it’s way into asset markets especially commodity markets.
Eventually spiking inflation (oil) or the withdrawal of QE will allow deflation to sneak back in as the next recession gets underway.
But no one with a straight face can seriously say we have no inflation.
Gary: Good report. I have been waiting for just this conclusion. I sold some DGP into the current few-days-long rally and you said, “What for?” I feel no edge and agree with SB and Fubsy. I will trade (it’s what I do) when I find attractive setups, but piling into something like gold will just have to wait a while (unless it’s EUO).
The other thing that struck my tonight is your saying “If gold gets to $1600, so what? I don’t care.” This after just a few days ago you said to me, “If gold rallies you will chase as it is emotionally IMPOSSIBLE to watch it go up without your chasing.” Suddenly it is not impossible. Interesting. My only frustration with your posts is how often you categorically state something that is in fact a strong tendency (well selected I might add—you’re a smart guy) but not nearly as black and white as you say. I believe it is this black and white, 100%-0% attitude that gets people to go whole hog and then blow out their accounts. For example,” Silver is absolutely going to hit 50!” You could not know that and it was NOT part of cycle theory. It was a trading opinion—no more. If you could be more nuanced it would greatly reduce risk. Saying “people generally find chasing hard to resist, so prepare for that if you sit out” makes the point without the dogmatism. But what caught my notice is it is rare to have you contradict yourself so directly within a few days “chasing can’t be helped” to “I don’t care.”
I will say again: You are the best at what you do that have ever seen. But your tactics and expression of certainty could be improved—which is great. Think of how insufferable you’d be if you were perfect!
Jayhawk,
I feel like you, too. Following Gary who is usually spot on as to timing, I stupidly bought mostly miners and probably am flat overall. I do have some physical silver and had a few nice trades on AGQ, but apart from that, SIL and SLW, I’d say I’m down 10% in the mining stocks and am clearing out of the remaining ones in the next week or two. Nothing as frustrating as seeing a piece of crap like HL drop 20% when silver rises 40%! I have PZG, paid $4, now $2 and change. And NEM (which I don’t own, thank God), is the same price as it was in 2006.
I don’t pick individual sectors, particularly but own NSC and was happy to see that go from $52 to $74 in the last year. In tech, EMC. I paid $17 added some recently, now $27.
I’m a smoker so bought some MO at $19 last year; it was ridiculously cheap then. Now it’s $27 and the dividend of 6% helps finance my habit. How many miners pay dividends? (Oh maybe Goldcorp 10 cents a quarter).
I have CCK (the old Crown Cork & Seal). What could be more boring, making bottle caps, but they are doing well, esp. in emerging markets. I paid $28, now $41. I’ve had some losers, too, though, like PBR, paid $40, just sold at $35 today (but better that then paying 6 bucks for a miner to see it go down to 2).
LVS is another I like and recently I bought FXH which focuses on smaller health-care companies. So there are plenty out there. Many are boring, like EMC (cloud computing), it goes up 25 cents, then down 10 cents etc. but it adds up.
I plan on owning no more than 2 or 3 mining companies in my portfolio, whatever wave it is. Gary was right to focus on just a few, like SIL and SLW. Wish I’d listened to him rather than collecting my own little portfolio of 15 or so mining companies. How many investors own 15 oil stocks? But you get nutty people like me in pm-land. Now I am learning the lesson.
Cheers and sorry for the length but you did ask.
I would think this is clearly saying D-wave. Gold maybe not but silver is clearly in a collapsing parabola.
Try that again.
Gary,
it’s in the eye of the beholder. Still up 120% + for the year after a 30% shake out that bounced right off the ascending trend line is another way to interpret the recent action.
Well, it broke the 50day MA, which it also did in Jan/Feb of this year, before it sliced right through it to the upside into a massive advance. That’s what I see in that chart.
Most of QE2 is at the banks as excess reserves.
m.research.stlouisfed.org/fred/series.php?sid=EXCRESNS
When they start lending that money that’s when will get real high inflation
More on current Deflation
Go on Zerohedge.com and read and listen to John Burbank/Passport Capital from 05/09/2011. He loves gold but sold it all. He’ll buy back at seasonal lows (August) or when he expects another liquidity injection: QE III or some such thing. Burbank is very smart and Gary tonight is saying the same thing.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/so-much-john-burbank-turning -bearish-gold
Hope I typed that in right..
Or are you making the point that silver made a lower low?
PC,
Can you please explain displaced moving average. I have never heard of this. Thanks.
Sorry Gary you may be correct about silver not seeing $50 anytime soon but the one thing you fail to take into account is the very strong demand for physical silver.Last weeks pullback in silver was an obvious case of pure manipulation for the obvious reasons
. If this was indeed an “event” to try and wipe everyone out and strong hands have stepped in to support silver — the potential for this to backfire on the shorts is still a possibility. Prices remain lower for future deliveries than spot — which is bullish — and the US Mint has reported 1.4 million silver eagles month to date. So far — the collapse from last week has not stopped physical buying —and that is the key. As long as physical sales continue — the shorts will be in trouble .
DG,
I’ll try to do better but let’s put this into context.
If one got out of silver at $40 and then sat on the sidelines and watched everyone get rich while silver ran to $50 how hard would it be to resist getting back in?
This mentality is what causes bubbles. People can’t stand to watch their neighbor get rich and not get a piece of the pie for themselves.
At this point we are kind of in a completely different position. We know the silver parabola is broken. The dollar is likely bottoming. We have an idea of where the top is likely to go and it probably isn’t too much further.
With those factors it would be much easier to resist trying to catch the last little bit (although I expect a great many will not be able to if gold rallies tomorrow).
But if you back up a month with no top in sight and silver piling on gains day after day how hard is it to resist getting back in in that scenario?
Now let me lay out another scenario. How many people do you think would be able to ride the bull if I had no conviction in my calls? Do you think anyone would have held that ride from $21 to $49 if every night I said well silver should go up but keep a tight stop on it just in case?
There are times to stand firm, and times to hesitate, and there are times to do a complete 180.
I’ll do my best to try and get each one right, but I will miss from time to time. 🙂
Seems like everyone has given up on gold and silver besides Polly and James and myself.
I am flexible and believe gold will jump up to the previous peak. Thereafter, I analyze the situation.
I think the dollar will soon dip down to the 72-73 level and during this time gold and silver will increase in price.
Did not think I would be so lonely about being bullish here. Everyone expects a crash, and falling prices. Not me!
True Gary about your conviction.
It had not been possible to follow the rally without your conviction.
But it turns both ways. All clinging to remain in until the very end when the price drops.
Gary. I am NOT talking about doing better at tactics. I AM talking about modifying the rhetoric so that you may it clear you could be wrong. Saying now, “Of course I could be wrong” and then saying a month later “There is no way in hell silver isn’t going to tag 50” is, frankly, not good enough, because what was said a month ago out of context will never have the force of the most recent statement (remember “recency bias?”) “It is impossible to always get the exact bottom.” More rhetoric. no one said “exact” and no one said “every time.” My point is not that you missed the top (join the club) it is that what you put out is so strong it leaves a misimpression. Why NOT say, “It is very hard to resist chasing in such circumstances”? No harm putting it that way, no? You said ‘No one can master their emotions.” Irrelevant. You “master” yours when you buy at IT bottoms. 100%-0% statements encourage absolutism (like going all in when people can’t afford it). Allow for grays and nuance is all I am saying. The hell with missing 50. Big deal. This point, however, might last for many years. Every quality has an upside and a downside. Your certainty and strong positions on things makes you a good coach and gives people guts when they need it. But it also has a downside (which we have just seen). I am asking that you look at this consciously and see whether improvements could be made.
Or you can tell me to bug off…that works too!
Robert,
Every parabolic move in history is rationalized as being fundamentally supported. None of them ever are. Maybe when the move first starts, but by the end price always brings a flood of supply into the market.
In 08 tankers were sitting in the gulf with no place to unload oil. Yet I kept hearing people say we had a shortage of oil.
Now I’m hearing we have a shortage of silver but we don’t have a silver shortage. Scrap silver is flooding back into the market just like I said it would at $50.
Wes,
You said you need credit expansion to create inflation, but I would say you need expansion of the monetary base which INCLUDES credit. Do you agree? If you have credit expansion, that increases the monetary base, so you get inflation.
But you can also increase the monetary base by just printing money, or to use the Fed’s euphemism “expanding the Fed’s balance sheet”.
If this puts more money into circulation (by removing treasuries and replacing them with dollars), then the monetary base is larger and that will create inflation, no?
Just about everyone I know is capitulating on gold and silver. Have I been making this so hard and just follow suit?
I don’t care too much either way, but for now I’m still in it like i was at the start of the IT low on Jan 30th. We’re a $1.50 away from a swing and a confirmed cycle low, which should mean more higher prices going forward, even in a left translated cycle. This will allow for a tight stop too. Also to just assume this ends at the past gold high’s and 7% (although likely) is not letting the cycles run their own course. I think we need to have more open options and scenarios.
jlinks,
So QE2 money is just sitting at the banks? The large “investment” banks have not used their QE money to “invest” in the markets?
How do we know this? What have Morgan Stanley and Goldman and Wells and Citi done with their QE money? Is there some way to find out?
I really have trouble understanding why the parabola is broken. Please don’t insinuate that I just like to challenge the prevalent opinion; I am just trying to look at the facts and these I read as follows…
About two weeks ago, a correction down to $37 or $38 would have still fit into a daily cycle correction scenario, before a final run up to perhaps $60 or even $70 with a top probably not before early June.
Now 10% more to the down side seems to have taken all that off the table.
Yes, we had a 32% decline. Yes, we broke the 50day MA.
Yet, a 32% decline can still be considered a shakeout (after almost 300% in ten months) and might just be a fantastic buying opportunity; the last time silver broke the 50day MA it lead to the best rally we’ve ever had in the metal. Also, nothing yet suggests that we shouldn’t see further dollar decline before the tide will turn; silver bounced right off it’s ascending trend line; gold is not really correcting much at all; and we still have possibly a month long window before we hit the originally anticipated time for a turn.
In addition, I find mainstream being very bearish on silver, while some of the most prominent and trusted metal bugs make the two most recent and bullish headlines on kingworldnews.com :
Richard Russel – Expect Huge Rebound in Silver
James Turk – Silver will hit new Highs in a Matter of Weeks
I am all cash, but might be just one of those who won’t be able to resist tomorrow.
Of course, it is hard to answer whether we are on the wrong side of the trade, but shouldn’t we follow the general trend until it is really broken? If the trend is in fact really broken, would some one mind explaining me why it is, despite all the facts mentioned above?
Thank you!
Gary,
Tonights report is bang on on how I am going to play it going forward. I have a small long position right now and am hoping we get another big move up. at some point, I will enter a small put position, but i am conserving the bulk of my money for the A wave.
Basil, I am struggling along with you on this. would we have collapsed in price without direct intervention of the CME?
Also gold, which is what we are told to follow, perfectly entered and now is exiting a daily cycle low
Why would we now not panic out of our positions, until the pivot is hot and a failed cycle is confirmed.
These are the kind of moves I made before Gary, now everyone here is doing it.
A fool and his money are soon parted…
86d4life,
displayced MA is just a moving average that is “displaced” against the chart.
Veronica used the 9 day moving average and displaced it forward in time by 9 time periods (days).
You can probably do this on stock charts (don’t know because I don’t use them), but it’s very simple to do on think or swim charts. TOS charts have dozens of “studies” you can apply to charts. Simple Moving Average and Exponential Moving Average are two of those studies. When you apply one of those to a chart, you can select the period (like 9 or 50 or 200) and you can also select the displacement using either a positive or negative number.
Try it three ways (no displacement, negative 9 displ, and positive 9 displ, using different colors for each) and see what it looks like on a daily chart of gold
Bob,
I’d say don’t think too hard about second guesses, or that everybody else has panicked out of their positions.
One of the hardest decisions in this bull market was to dump my silver miners 2 weeks ago in the face of new highs in silver, but they were outstandingly weak.
From where I sit, I’m not fighting any bias.
Bob & Basil,
I’ll let you two be the guinea pig on this one. I’ll just wait for a better setup with a better risk reward profile (A-wave).
If it continues higher I’ll just cheer you on 🙂
Karl Denninger at the Market Ticker has an excellent piece on the increase in the Silver margin requirement and Oil. Bottom line, Silver traders were over leveraged and the trades were very speculative in nature. Oil is now trading above the level where the margin was increased indicating a much more balanced market and much less speculative. Take a look at the article, although I think Karl is a blow hard I think he nailed this one. The proof is on the chart.
Bob,
it was a classic panic and a classic shakeout. Now the question is whether that was a panic before more panic or whether it was the panic that lead to a great set up, which the crowd is missing. It seems that everyone here liked silver in the 40s but hates it now in the 30s.
I haven’t gotten any good answers to my question, so I guess there is none 🙂
Basil,
just to add to your comments-the lower the cartel manupulates the price down , the more demand there is for it-Bullish news
Silver’s price slump has done nothing but raise demand for silver in India as companies hand out silver coins as part of employee bonus packages and jeweler stores promote silver as an affordable alternative to gold.
Sprott Launches Physical Silver Mutual Fund, Will Likely Soak Up Much Marginal Silver Inventory.
the demand for silver is way greater than the supply and the recent pullback has even incresed demand at a lower price-$50 will come and pass a lot faster than anyone expects .
SWING LOW IN GOLD is in if 1460 holds tomorrow
PC,
Thanks. That`s a real eye opener.
Gary, I struggle with the obviousness of the move, Everyone is playing it this way. I am hedged and will suffer little from staying long, and have been suffering less everyday from last Thursday.
Give me a week or so, and then I’ll let everyone take it down.
Gary, in terms of what kind of cash to sit in over the next few months as we await the precious-metal A-wave, would the best bet be USD or something else? Thanks
Well if the dollar has put in the three year cycle low then the dollar would be best.
Robert,
so I am assuming your long and not buying the D wave talk? What would make you sell?
Jeff,
Can’t find it. do you have a link?
PC,
That’s not even vaguely right.
Remember the apple seller who sold 3 apples (loans) a day while displaying 10 apples. Expanding the display to 100 apples is exactly like increasing the money base.
You’re still going to sell 3 apples until demand for apples (loans) goes up. Displaying thousands of apples won’t help.
In the first place the banks were not reserve constrained. The 10 apple display was more than enough.
Expanding the money base did nothing outside of confusing Gary and millions of others.
Seems like Bob, Robert and Basil is on the train..We are 6 brave soldiers! 🙂
I think a lot of people will jump on this train now because they cant se the price increase without them. Fubsy, Gary and DG can handle this but the other members will buy.
Did Moneyman just call me a sheep?
😉
Still early but gold has shot up to 1522–of course its always up early as the Asians and Australians buy the physical, the games begin when the comex opens and the manipulation starts up.
Its kind of scary when you see this divergence among the board.
While I think Gary’s comments regarding silver not making it back up to 50 are borne of substantial trading experience and general market savvy, it might not be wholly implausible for silver to make it back there in short order. If you sold on Wednesday or Thursday of last week, you are now looking at a higher silver price than where you got out (and as Gary has stated, seeing an asset leave you behind makes it hard to control the urge to jump back in). If, god forbid, you shorted, you’re now potentially forced to cover. Moreover, almost the entire float of SLV changed hands on Thursday, so the new owners are currently in a very strong position (silver futures are now up $6 from their lows, about 18%) and have no reason to sell.
While I’m not seriously considering 50 as likely at this point (I think it’s much more likely that silver rolls over relatively soon), I don’t think it’s entirely out of the question given the current market dynamics and the positioning of market participants.
CMT
No! 🙂
You know what I mean. I just think that a lot of people will get greedy and dont listen to Gary this time.
If Silver hit $50 and everybody unloaded to gold, I bet you anything right now the bias here would be guarded, but fully invested calling the cycle low normal and possible remaining C Wave top to come.
Basil comment of a classic panic and shakeout rings true. Doesn’t mean anybody is right.
Those that feel they must trade for income might consider shortening their hold times.
Metals go higher long term, on that we can all agree. But if you trade a smaller account or just enjoy the game and must play the game, pull in your expected hold times and with metals in particular, only play the long side(in case it gets crazy on the upside aligned with the long term trend). I don’t believe we’re breaking new highs, or even significant new lows in silver from current levels.
No need to be invested financially or emotionally right here, IMO.
Basil,
The fact that you are uncertain about the trend suggests that the wisest course of action is not to make any sudden or impulsive moves.
I still haven’t sold out of everything. If the miners start rallying with conviction, I will slow down my sales. If they continue to underperform on low volume, I will keep selling.
We don’t have to risk everything on a binary outcome. If you believe that silver has a chance here, you can make a small buy with stops in place.
The situation is ambiguous. On that we can all agree. So the smart thing to do is take a page from SB’s book and dial down our risk until we have some clarity.
Moneyman, no worries. I’m probably a sheep. I bought some May SLV 34 calls today at 3.75. Could have sold them at 4.15 (and said I would sell them ay 4), but thought, “wait, what would they be if SLV gets to 42? 44? 46?”
Baaaaaaaaa. Baaaa.
I’m still long the AGQ $230 options as well as SLV 35 options and some long shot others left over from last week. In addition I have some GLD 140 options. All my options are May.
But, I’m over 80% cash and I’m running close stops on the open positions.
PC
Real inflation comes from fractional reserve banking, meaning that when the FED creates $1 and it’s deposited in a bank, the banking system turns that dollar into a lot of dollers, becuase banks create money when the lend.
But they can’t just create zillion of dollart out of $1 dollar, there is a reserve ratio, I think it’s at something around 10X I’m not sure.
Since banks face insolvency, they keep excess reserves to stay afloat. That means that when you deposit money in the bank they are not making 10X loans based on your deposit, last time they did that they almost bankrupt themselvs, so they play it safe for now.
So QE2 buys bonds from government.
Government pays employees and contractors.
They deposit the money in the banks.
But banks don’t lend.
This is the monetary base: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/BASE
This is the excess reserves:
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/EXCRESNS
They seems strikingly similier, don’t they?
Many smart investors fail to grasp how banking works.
So yes, there is inflation, but not much. When those reserve pipes are opened, we’ll have real inflation. Double digit inflation.
As far as UUP is concerned, I hope never buy a packaged product minus management fees, hopefully making 8% (at best).
As much as I hate holding paper, I’m already in USD cash. I don’t feel a need to further invest in dollars, even if commods need a break.
Other than trades with hold times of several days to two weeks, I’ll conserve capital for Gary’s next green light.
Moneyman,
I am considering SLV and/or DGP. I think I can handle those if it turns again. I don’t think I want to find myself on the wrong side of the trade holding AGQ. The 20%+ it already made are too much for me to jump in now;
We saw SLV run up 30%+ in April. I think silver can gain enough to make it worthwhile until the dollar truly bottoms. We have been chasing lesser percentage gains with some of the trades here this year.
I’ll sleep over it and see if I can get myself out of paralysis by tomorrow morning. I certainly won’t go all in.
Gary,
Should the nightly report’s last sentence have the word “lower” be “higher” instead?
DG,
I agreed with you at one time about Gary’s “no doubt about it” calls, but I’ve changed my mind.
I think he needs to express himself this way to keep the less experienced people on board.
There is no doubting Gary’s sencerity in wanting his tribe to succeed and I think this is an effective tool for him.
My system will go long at 1537.I just saw Mark Hulbert’s gold sentiment. It was at 73% 5/2 and it is now at 13%,all in a few trading days!!! This is a huge shift.
we have a swing low gold as it’s printing 1523 right now… i guess it doesn’t matter? the prudent action would be to exit and preserve capital?
I am still in 100% and am watching closely with a tight stop. Gold has moved up to over 1522 after hours and silver has broken 39. Don’t know for sure what this means but more often than not it is an indication of the next days trade.
driver,
It’s correct. If stocks have another push lower into a daily cycle low then the overbought levels should send it down.
It sure might make sense to be thinking very short term right now.
David,
I’ll keep your very good points in mind. I’m in no mood to go crazy. Yet, I am in no bad company if I am cautiously bullish here.
Wes,
good point. If Gary would seem uncertain or would be second guessing himself all the time he couldn’t lead this blog. What’s going on beyond the resoluteness – nobody knows.
Self doubt leads nowhere. Resoluteness leads somewhere; resoluteness can be dangerous at times, but self doubt is dangerous pretty much all the time.
I do see DG’s point too.
Some times the changes in course come as a surprise and don’t seem at all debatable. I think I am getting used to it.
gary
im still confussed on the dollar. could we go long the dollar for a safe play ? if so what do we look for entry wise? a pull back or the swing ?
Thanks, Gary. I was thinking that if stocks went lower, their overbought levels would disappear. But maybe you’re looking at the longer term levels, like on a weekly basis.
Gary,
I am blown away at your lack of conviction. What happened to Fed printing gone wild causing 5k gold? I think the problem is over trading and lack of diversification (gold, silver, platinum, etc.). Also, to much of consideration of a correlation between the metals and the mining shares. Going all in with AGQ wasn’t a prudent way to play what I consider a wide asset class play. Yeah the silver hit hurt silver and to a lesser amount silver mining stocks, but if one is diversified within the asset class it at most a minor bump in the road. If you look at the big picture for PMs nothing has changed. As you always say, this is a bull market after all, isn’t it?
Wow, what a difference a week and a half makes.
I still have burned into my brain all that Gary said leading up to the crash, which he was always spot on. One thing I have noticed (believe it or not) is that Gary is very conservative on the timings and expectations.
THe amazing thing is that he was right about silver at $50 and the switch to gold. This was the only reason I was able to sell my whole portfolio (by luck) on that Friday before.
I agree with the other comments that the only thing that analytically changed is the fact that silver went too far and maybe gold didn’t get a double bottom.
Hmmmmm.
I also agree with the other side silver parabolas don’t recover historically. But, at the same time I have been of the belief that once silver corrected from 50 to 45 and then made it almost back up that we were in completely unchartered territory and no TA could predict what will happen.
I still think this is the case.
Bottom line is that Gary is 100% correct. THe risk here is not worth it for most people. It is pure Gambling.
At the same time, Gary’s cycle theory and historical reports can give us very good clues to swim these shark infested waters on our own.
Only difference is the umbilical cord is cut.
Gary – wish us luck.
We need it.
I’m just saying that the short term overbought levels should turn stocks back down if the daily cycle low isn’t finished.
Just re-read DGs post and think there are some good suggestions brought up in a very friendly way, and I think it wouldn’t do necessarily any harm if Gary would contemplate them.
Good report Gary! I’m with you on the plan. And I think your self-analysis is spot-on. I think most of us are still stunned at the sharp down move.
basil, may I worship at your altar? Please?
Gold lion,
True but I don’t want to ride a D-wave. There is no way to diversify out of a D-wave.
We have warning signs that the D-wave may have begun or if not probably not a huge amount of upside left. Rather than take a chance of getting caught in a D-wave and losing more capital I think it is probably prudent to just preserve capital for the A-wave. I don’t mind missing the last little bit of the C-wave if there is still more.
One thing I have learned about myself in this last week was that I became too dependent on Gary. This was brought about by my desire to think differently (since my own way only netted 8% last year and 13% the previous year). Add to that Gary’s incredibly accurate forecasting and I ended up breaking my own rule on always keeping a stop in place. I don’t blame Gary or have any resentment towards him and continue to consider his advice over-the-top. But I do know that I have to make my own choices and live with the consequences. What would make a good topic of discussion is one on selling strategies. The who, what, when and why of such. Selling for me has always been more of a problem than buying.
HotRod,
it was gambling at 45 to 50. Why is it gambling at 35 to 39?
Gambling it is if you’re out for the very quick buck, going all in with AGQ or option plays right here, and if indeed you are totally uncertain about whether we might see the 20s before we see 45 in silver again.
Otherwise, the PMs are the opposite of gambling I would say.
OK, that makes sense.
Gary,
What are you going to write about in your letter for the next five months while waiting for the D wave to end?
Swing low in gold has been made.
Moneyman,
I am still in, but I hold GLD/DGP. Playing smaller hand day by day than what I had previously, but not out yet.
After Turk and Russel, Sinclair is now making bullish statements on Kingworldnews.com…
With gold and silver still recovering, today King World News interviewed the legendary Jim Sinclair. When asked about the volatility in gold and silver Sinclair replied, “The bonds are indicating that the psychology which is most supportive to gold is returning to the market place. And the action in gold after the recent reaction in gold, is so stout, so strong, as is silver itself, so stout, so strong in its recovery, that the only conclusion that you can come to is that we have not established a top in silver and clearly we’re nowhere near a top in gold.”
Here are a few more snippets from Sinclair’s interview:
“The recovery in silver, the fact that it got plowed down, but its character now seems to deny the recent break, I think silver is acting very, very well and as previously stated, I don’t believe we’ve seen a top in silver yet.
When asked about gold specifically Sinclair stated, “$1,764 is calling on gold now and the market is reacting to it. It is calling, it is the magnet pulling most heavily on gold right now.”
The D-wave should be over by the end of this intermediate cycle. It’s already on week 15. A normal cycle lasts 20-25 weeks. A D-wave lasts 6 – 10 weeks on average. So gold has enough time for one more spurt higher and then down or down from here. We do have a bearish engulfing candle on the weekly charts.
All in all it’s anybodies guess as to whether gold makes one more move up before beginning the D-wave or whether it’s already begun. If I look at silver and underperforming miners I would say it’s begun.
If I look at gold I think there could be another move up.
I have never played puts, but guess the time is coming, I need to learn. I have to keep my hand in the market business wise, so have to play something until the A wave. I can’t sit on the sidelines for that long.
Wes,
Sorry, I wasn’t trying to be vaguely right or vaguely wrong. Just trying to understanding (even vaguely understand) where the QE money goes.
You are right that if the money that QE added is just sitting in a vault in a bank somewhere, then that will have zero effect on inflation.
However, if the bank actually spends that money, say “invests” the money in the stock market or in commodities, wouldn’t that QE money have the effect of driving up stock and commodity prices? It’s my understanding that at least SOME of the QE money ends up going into the markets. If ALL of the QE money is just sitting in a pile in vaults, then yeah, no effect. But if that’s the case, why would they even bother to do QE??
I find it hard to believe that Uncle Ben is telling everyone that one of the purposes of QE is to buoy up the stock market if that QE money is just going to sit in a bank’s vault. Is he deliberately lying just to create expectations of inflation?
Bob & Basil,
I’ll let you two be the guinea pig on this one. I’ll just wait for a better setup with a better risk reward profile (A-wave).
If it continues higher I’ll just cheer you on 🙂
———————————
Add me too!
James R to the Guinea pigs or to the Cheerleaders? 🙂
I hope Gary is right, and early like he normally is.
Life is a Guinea pig.
Gary,
i am surprised at your change of heart. At the very least instead of selling right away now that we have a swing low, keep close track of gold and GLD and if it reverses back down, then sell.
Silver will break 50 in five days when it double bottoms!
A Guinea pig
I’m on the “long gold” train as well. I think the C-wave is still intact, and will top sometime in the 3rd or 4th week of June. That means I believe the dollar will break to new lows as well.
I won’t go into all the details. People here have been hashing them out pretty well.
I think what happened in silver was a multi-day version of the 1 day 20% crash in 2006. In that C-wave, gold continued to power higher to a C-wave top, while silver struggled to a marginal new high. I’m not saying silver will reach a marginal new high this time around, but I do think the same general dynamic is at play here, and, after some “chart repair”, gold won’t reach just a marginal new high, but a definite new high, like over 1700.
I haven’t kept careful track, but it seems those who experienced the silver crash believe the C-wave is over. Those who were in gold seem to believe the C-wave is still alive. I’m in the latter group.
I think a division of opinion like this and a rigorous discussion are healthy. And I wish everyone, whatever your view, all the best.
I know my contribution in this post isn’t a very strong one. All I’ve basically said is “here’s what I believe” without giving a lot of great “evidence” as to why I believe that. Frankly. I’m too tired to get into the details and feel many of them have already been discussed. I guess I’m just speaking up to say: “here’s another gold long here.”
I’ve certainly been wrong in the past, and I may be wrong here. But I’m putting my money where my mouth is, and not a small allocation either.
P.S. I feel I’ve managed my risk well with the position I’ve taken, so I don’t want people to think I’m “swinging like a mad man.” I’ve got lines drawn in the sand with stops, etc., and I’m going to see how it plays out.
iTulip is a source I respect for being an expert in “bubbles”: he says this silver run was a bubble and called top at ~48$ (2 fridays ago).
He is expecting a take down starting tomorrow noon (he called a bounce up to 38$).
Eventually all the way back to 20$ when he plans to buy again later this year.
At the same time, James Turk is claiming 50$ in a few weeks!!
I’m following the plan and getting out tomorrow.
i am going to be IN, I think we have more upside and since i am mainly in GLD and miners which have already reported earnings. I think I can limit my losses. The other positions are AUY which just declared a 50% dividend increase, so it may profit if gold prices go up and GG which reported great earnings. Also some SLW, which earnings were more than doubled. I will keep a close eye to gold and $ prices and discern for myself if this is a new cycle and if it will become left translated in due time.
Marinho,
Probably a good plan unless of course silver decides to gap down again in which case here we go again.
jlinks,
thanks for that explanation and the charts.
The way I read the charts is as follows:
1) banks have expanded their reserves by 1.4 trillion since the end of 2009
2) money supply has expanded by 1.7 trillion in that same time period.
So it’s true that much of the expansion of the money supply has gone into bank reserves. I did not know that, thanks for that clarification.
However, .3 trillion of that expansion has NOT gone into bank reserves, so that money made it out into general circulation, no?
But it’s only a measley .3 trillion, right? Well, that’s 300 billion, nothing to sneeze at, no?
Gary,
I want you to wear that cute little pink outfit when you’re on the sidelines cheering!
In the meantime i am glad for Gary’s wonderful cycle tool and his opinion on the markets (Gold and silver).
P.P.S. I guess this means I’m a passenger on the Poly Express! ;^)
Got out of all my SLW and now holding DGP and NUGT.
If silver makes it back to $50 it will be the first parabolic break I’ve ever seen that recovered. Kinda hard to bet on something that’s never happened.
But it could certainly go up enough to close the BB trade profitable.
I do think sellers will probably step back in tomorrow though and try to drive silver back below the 50 especially if the dollar rallies.
Gary,
I think you need to make statements that are NOT definitive. Like the one you made in the report tonight.
Give yourself some leeway and flexibility especially if this is a swing low tomorrow.
Wes: Yes, there are advantages to extreme confidence, but I opt for precision. It’s true that it does keep the less experienced traders on board, but as we have seen that is not always the best. Perhaps it is best in the long run (Gary is very good and is usually right, after all), but I’d rather people miss apart of run up than trash their account. Extreme confidence breeds over-confidence. It’s just how it works.
Then there is accuracy. One simply cannot be so sure about certain kinds of claims. Overstating them to have people hang in there just doesn’t seem right to me. In any event, it seems to be G’s style rather than a conscious choice and I am trying to highlight it and make it more conscious. If he then decides to keep doing it that way, fine. But if it just a habitual manner it’s worth noting it’s downside. And if it is conscious and selected intentionally, that’s fine too, but it is not at all clear to me it is a chosen style. After all, the kind of guy who can train as hard as he can, learn cycles as well as he can, and climb sheer rock cliffs, probably has a lot of will power and an air of certainty in general.
Actions can speak more clearly than words
Adv. 1. consciously – with awareness; “she consciously played with the idea of inviting them”
unconsciously – without awareness; “she jumped up unconsciously when he entered the room”
conscious
1. aware
2.
3.
4.
Intentionally conceived or done; deliberate: a conscious insult; made a conscious effort to speak more clearly.
And Gary, forgive me if I have gone too far, but I do think this is a very important issue going forward.
And you told me you have a super thick skin 🙂
Nothing but respect and gratitude on my end, BTW. But you are not perfect (shocking, I know!)
Wes (and others who do options),
You mentioned you have stop on your options positions. I have hesitated to use stops on options because of the spreads thinking that when my stop gets hit I’ll get a lousy fill.
Are you able to use stops in a way that insures decent fills?
Do your stop use the price of the option or are you keying off of gold futures or GLD (or silver futures or SLV)?
Thanks!
Bekshaski-
Who on Itulip called that? Jansen?
Brassmonkeyballs-
Huh?
Gary, I just read tonight’s report. It was great. If banging one’s head against the wall helps the trader to think clearly and to get away from the emotional hangover, I should try this approach! Thanks for the suggestion!
Gary,
The definition of parabola is somewhat loose here, no?
If you looked at the 2006 situation in silver when there was that large move down in one day, might you have thought that a parabola was in place before the break and that move down busted it?
I am going to throw in with the guinea pigs, with my SLV, GLD and DGP positions. I am holding out for the BB crash trade at a minimum, and see what the upside looks like then. I am only 50% invested at this point, so the risk is manageable.
Silver should have an exhaustive gap up tomorrow.
I will sell close to the top.
Then wait about three trading days til it bottoms.
Then buy like a madman!
PC,
If the money is used to buy a commodity it will have the effect of raising the price of that commodity.
There is only an extra trillion dollars or so that we are talking about. This is not enough money, given the size of the money supply, to effect inflation.
Now, if it’s loaned out, over and over, at 10 times leverage, that’s another story.
But that hasn’t happened. Loans are down over the past two years.
PC, Gary may use different criteria. But for me, the weekly chart shows that the parabola is broken.
Jake Gint, who is also a cyclist, has this optimistic look at SLW:
http://ibankcoin.com/jakegint/files/2011/05/SLW-Daily.png
Yesterday
I explained the scenario on what will happen.
Silver has now broken above 39.0
So far so good!
For what it’s worth :
Public sentiment has declined enough to drive silver into the buy zone.
This from sentiment trader.
PC, I use conditional stops:
If SLV trades at less than X, then
Sell SLV options.
Wow, Wes, thanks for pointing that out. I hadn’t noticed. Interesting.
dollar daily chart is looking bull flaggy to me. But gold is still looking strong. Conundrum.
As most have said here tonight, risk/reward ratio is no longer in our favor, so best to stand aside or at least lighten up your positions as David has been doing. (That’s what I’ve done as well, but I still have a position in GLD calls.)
It’s fun stuff though. How’s it gonna play out? The suspense keeps building… (and we’ll get to find out in a few days 🙂
PC, I use my stops (sells) contingent on price of GLD.
Thanks, Wes.
So you must be getting reasonable fills when your stops get hit.
thanks, at ease. I guess it’s time for me to try stops on my GLD calls.
Gary,
Another way to look at silvers fall…http://screencast.com/t/KsCMnLtIKS
Is just a correction to support, no?
Wes,
Okay, that makes sense in terms of the multiplier effect.
However, “only a trillion” (actually based on the charts jlinks posted it might be less than that, like only 300 billion)…
How much effect would 300 billion have if it all goes into stocks and commodities? Is that just a drop in those buckets or is it a significant percentage of the total amount that is in those markets?
Gary,
When you see that long white candle stick on silver after it double bottoms.
You will join us for the final rally above $50.00!
James
My GDX bollinger band mechanical system went to a buy today. It has different parameters than G’s and it has a 90% winning record on long and short trades.
For me I just can’t find an edge one way or the other and there are a lot of negatives and pretty much only one positive.
Gold doesn’t look that bad.
Silver on the other hand is clearly a broken parabola.
The rally in both GLD and SLV is on declining volume and appears to be bear flags.
The miners refuse to participate and were down again today despite gold and silver being up.
The intermediate cycle is now on week 15. It’s getting late in the cycle.
There is a bearish engulfing candle on heavy volume on GLD.
The dollar appears to have put in an intermediate low and looks like it’s forming a bull flag.
The question is does one positive beat out all the negatives?
I can say this with the overnight move we will have a swing in the morning so we should have our cycle low. If that now gets violated then the D-wave has probably begun.
Veronica!
Thanks for that info. 🙂 Nice one!
Are you invested?
Jim Sinclair has a chart showing the trendline break (down) of 30-year Treasury bonds, and an article that says this will help drive gold higher:
http://www.jsmineset.com/
Gary,
I think this is the wrong chart. This one is of the industrials. What is your take away from it breaking the trend line?
Gary,
The miners are forming a double bottom!
Silver has very clearly broken the intermediate trend line.
Gary,
I dont’ think there is just one positive here. Others and me listed a lot more positives in previous posts. It can go either way perhaps. Over the next month I don’t think one direction outweighs the other one in risk. Those invested or wanting to get invested need to watch closely; but so they had in the high 40s.
Gold and silver will also form a double bottom!
Gary,
that’s a shorter term trend line from February. The trendline from August 2010 is still intact. Silver bounced right off it.
What are the other positives?
I am still in both silver and gold. I have half my long term core left plus some positions from Feb ’11 IT bottom and on the way down at 41.90 last week. Last gold position was Feb ’11 IT bottom. I could ride a D wave and still be ok, but I would like to bank more cash at the target from 3 years ago. 1600+. Probably sit the D wave out and load up again..but that’s still weeks away.
G man. I fell like Old Turkey here and you the young guy trying to get me to give up my position..its a bull market after all…until it isn’t…haha…
So I am with the crowd who is still in.
By the way, prior to the flash crash, had we ever had a flash crash? Is that a predictable event? How does one respond AFTER that unpredictable event? What analysis would allow someone to know what will happen?
Did Silver just have a flash crash? How does anyone really know?
The crimex might be able to push silver prices down to ridiculously insane levels, but good luck finding physical. I randomly checked a couple sites and shipping is 2 to 3 weeks instead of less than one from the latest demand due to drop in prices.
I am selling when the FAT lady (gold) sings above 1600..
Wes..have foreign central banks been buying treasuries as well as the FED in the last couple years? Are they big buyers? Are they big holders? What do these foreign buyers of treasuries do with the money? Does this money find its way into assets? If not why not?
Basil,
That is the intermediate term trend line. If you go back far enough you can always find a trend line that will support your conclusion but for an intermediate term time frame this is the correct trend line.
Gary,
reposting my earlier post, which explains the other positives I am seeing…
I really have trouble understanding why the parabola is broken. Please don’t insinuate that I just like to challenge the prevalent opinion; I am just trying to look at the facts and these I read as follows…
About two weeks ago, a correction down to $37 or $38 would have still fit into a daily cycle correction scenario, before a final run up to perhaps $60 or even $70 with a top probably not before early June.
Now 10% more to the down side seems to have taken all that off the table.
Yes, we had a 32% decline. Yes, we broke the 50day MA.
Yet, a 32% decline can still be considered a shakeout (after almost 300% in ten months) and might just be a fantastic buying opportunity; the last time silver broke the 50day MA it lead to the best rally we’ve ever had in the metal. Also, nothing yet suggests that we shouldn’t see further dollar decline before the tide will turn; silver bounced right off it’s ascending trend line; gold is not really correcting much at all; and we still have possibly a month long window before we hit the originally anticipated time for a turn.
In addition, I find mainstream being very bearish on silver, while some of the most prominent and trusted metal bugs make the two most recent and bullish headlines on kingworldnews.com :
Richard Russel – Expect Huge Rebound in Silver
James Turk – Silver will hit new Highs in a Matter of Weeks
I am all cash, but might be just one of those who won’t be able to resist tomorrow.
Of course, it is hard to answer whether we are on the wrong side of the trade, but shouldn’t we follow the general trend until it is really broken? If the trend is in fact really broken, would some one mind explaining me why it is, despite all the facts mentioned above?
Thank you!
Moneyman, I’m invested but at levels lower than most newcomers. i’ve been holding mainly gold futures the for all of this IT cycle and adding lesser amounts as my futures system gave new buys.I’ve got an itchy trigger finger though:)
I think the COT/blees report for Silver would also count as a positive.
Gary, another positive is that Beanie says that gold is going……..down. ;^)
Nat,
This wasn’t a flash crash. It was a parabolic top. Parabolic tops collapse 100% of the time. It’s one of the most reliable outcomes in this game.
I’ll say this a 2 year C-wave is not going to get corrected in only 4 or 5 weeks unless we have another crash.
Since the current intermediate cycle is now 15 weeks old the D-wave would have to start soon in order to have enough time to correct this massive move.
The only other option would be for the dollar to bounce for several weeks taking gold down into just a normal intermediate low and then another complete intermediate cycle up in gold would follow and the dollars’ three year cycle low would be pushed out to the Fall.
I have no idea how to calculate odds on that though.
Nat,
It’s close but I need a 90+ and 95+ is better. Anything in between is kind of meaningless.
But just for the sake of argument we’ll call it two pluses.
Veronica,
Thanks for posting! I like those odds.
Gary,
Do you still expect the bb crash to be in play? That is, the 41.33 target or the risk of holding til then is to high in your opinion at this time?
I’m with G though on the silver mania we just went through.Get the hell out!I was able to sell all my SLV premarket the day of the high along with DOC. It was not a large position though as I don’t like to trade silver unless it has gone through a crash.The physical silver I bot at 12.00 in ’08 is gone too,sold the Fri before the high. Still have the silver from 01 and 02 though.
Veronica,
How do you back test your systems? And how far back do you go when testing?
Any thoughts on how to hedge a rather large position in DGP? It’s large enough that I cannot just place a stop loss. Any thoughts are appreciated.
What I want to know is: what does Beanie think?
Pima, ya gotta have balls of steel thjough with the BB system as the buys sometime don’t mark exact lows.
Veronica: You’re the Grande Dame of the PMs!
Actually, my family’s been in this gold bull since the very beginning too. Richard Russell got my dad in at the very bottom.
Gary
I am looking at this chart that you posted.
1. you made a solid case for hitting the sidelines on your 8:35 post
2. caution is warranted in your opinion, I tend to agree-
3. IF THIS CHART does an A-B-C-D down…you have THE D-Wave
It would be (roughly) –
‘a’ $49.5 to ‘b’ $33.5 (12 pts)
up to c) Say $40 to…
subtract another $12 ($40-$12=$28)
$28…the 200sma.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SILVER&p=D&yr=3&mn=6&dy=0&id=p82113197126&a=205604460&listNum=1
David: see my post to Gary above.
I actually agree with basil. when we were first expecting a scary correction..3-6 dollars, I sold all positions in Silver I had above 31. That was like 40.75..then I sold more at 42.90…with the expectation of a correction. Since we were first expecting it at around 40, 3-6 dollars would have taken us to about 34..and that would have been big..especially if we when from 42 or 43 to 34…would you have said D wave because of that, knowing what gold has just done?
perhaps silver being the step child..got a little excited and ran off ahead…but know is back hanging with his friend spike (gold), cause he is so big and strong..
Veronica
Oki but it seems that you are getting signals that the price can rise from here..:-)
Im invested..A lot! 🙂 ssssss dont tell anyone..
Can you please post when you get some more buy signal. No buy signal on gold yet? Was it 1537?
GDX goes back to it’s inception. I try to go back and test time periods long enough to include bull and bear periods.
DG needs to have a talk with Richard Russell
http://www.businessinsider.com/dow-theorist-richard-russell-sell-everything-liquid-you-wont-recognize-america-by-the-end-of-the-year-2010-5
NY,
the odds favor the BB trade working but then we already got caught in one gap down. If these do turn out to be bear flags we could get caught again.
Gary,
did you count the swing low in gold in your pluses?
I know you do not follow other people work , but veronica’s 90% odds seem good to me.
Anyway, this is not an attempt to change your mind, but I see you got burned badly and I am afraid you are not recognizing your own clues, at least if this is a swing low, I would see how this cycle plays out in gold before letting go. Good night and hopefully the night will bring good counsel
I will post buy signals nightly so those interested can watch in real time. Posting the signals somehow helps my trading, strangely enough.Yes, futures will be back to a buy at 1537, and that will change daily.
Veronica,
you suggest to get the hell out of silver, but then you write that you would buy silver only after a crash. I assume that you don’t think 32% in a week constitute a crash?
David:
I understand exactly what you are saying. But markets usually crash because there are no more buyers. physical demand is still strong…lets see what the COT position shows this friday…maybe a 90+ on silver
M,
we will have a swing if the rally holds into the morning. But yes that would be a positive or at least it will mark the daily cycle low and we will have a hard stop.
Now tonight is a healthy debate, I love it. James R, I’ll watch for that exhaustion gap/candle and flip my bull debit spreads to credit on SLV, GLD, SLW and SLV. That way if we continue down no problemo.
I will enact my D wave purchases on the official D-wave pronouncement from Gary.
Then, I will wait to see if I see Gary’s shadow and wait 6 weeks for him to pop up again. 🙂
James R, what candle gives you the all clear on the double bottom?
Gary,
I see. So assuming golds swing holds through the morning that should increase our odds of making the bb trade? And we will then watch for confirmation or otherwise on those bear flags?
I ask because my balls of steel (yes, still hold AGQ) don’t want to get kicked in again.
Well we always knew gold was going to form a swing. It had to for the daily cycle to form a bottom. The question is will this cycle be left translated and fail quickly.
If those are bear flags on the gold and silver charts then yes they will. Now will silver complete the BB trade before they break? It’s anybodies guess. The odds say yes, but this could be that 5% that it doesn’t work.
A collapsing parabola would probably increase the odds, at least somewhat, that the trade fails this time.
Something to keep in mind: in order to get $200-300 silver, we need a consolidation. We need silver to be hated and despised. Silver can’t just keep ramping unless this is the final top.
A few days ago, I drove past a huge billboard on Sepulveda Boulevard here in LA. It depicted a pile of silver coins and said SILVER IS ON FIRE! UP 10% GURANTEED! It was a billboard for a bullion dealer. Trust me, if they had no inventory, they wouldn’t have bought the billboard. This is an expensive market.
This is a bad sign. It’s a sign of a top. Normally I’d say it’s a sign of THE top. People need to get burned badly for silver to go higher long term. Only a long consolidation will reset sentiment back to levels where silver can ramp again.
James R,
Your enthusiasm makes me smile.
I’m cheering you on.
BTW – What are you holding for silver?
Just curious.
Veronica,
Thanks for continuing to post your buys. Appreciate the confirmations.
Good night all.
David,
yes and no in my opinion. Yes, we do need to correct further and/or longer at some point, which I believe might still come a bit later. But if it is a massacre in price ($21) I don’t see how silver can get back up on it’s legs and reach $300 by the next C wave cycle top in 2015. Seems practically impossible to me.
Also, I think it will destroy sentiment not only for the short term, but quite possibly to a much more dramatic degree (Nasdaq crash of 2000); I think even the big money would be shocked and disgusted.
david..I am not suggesting we are going to 60 or 70 this run..it all depends on gold. 49 and change might be it his run. Gold could make 1600 and silver only get back to 46…if the gold cycle low is in then I can now put stops and just let this play out.
Over the past few days we have not seen any significant effort to sell silver. We seem to get these collection of offers, and if the price moves through they cover and start again. There is no effort to continue to sell silver at lower prices. I do not know how long this will continue. We are getting close to the 38% retracement at 39.5 in SI. Let us see if the try to smack it down there. Though I feel that they will first try to take it above 40 and get rid of stops set there before attempting the take-down.
Basil,
If silver hit 21 it wouldn’t stay there for long.
It would bounce back to around $40 in the A-wave, netting us all a substantial profit in AGQ I might add, before settling into a trading range in the 30’s for a year or so before breaking to new highs.
I don’t really believe silver is going to $21 anyway. But if it does, it will be a gift.
PS, David:
also, if silver tries once to break the old 1980 high of $50 and fails, and in fact fails so badly that it will regress to $21, then I do think that’s end of story.
In an ‘investment of the decade bull market’ I expect old historic highs to be taken out, if not on the very first attempt, then still rather pronto. If silver caves in that badly and shell shocked after just touching the old high I would have to question the balls of this bull.
Wouldn’t you?
David,
yes, I know. You said 25 – 27, I think 🙂
Basil, last time silver formed a top in the low 20’s it went back to 8.Now iot had a parabolic move up and corrected to 33+. Not a crash in my book.Gotta get some sleep.
Hi Gary,
Assuming the D wave has started and dollar has put in the 3 year cycle low. In how many months/weeks approx. should the A wave up start in Gold.?
Can the A wave make its way up with a rallying dollar or we can expect Gold to ignore the dollar later.?
Also oil will move down with the D wave but what will happen to oil once the D wave in Gold is finished.?
V
That’s the idea — it needs to get to the point where it is declared over and dead for good. That’s the sentiment level from which new moves are made.
I was trading silver stocks when silver was trapped in a trading range from $4 to $5 for years. If you’d said that silver was going to $21, people would have thought you were crazy. Silver was garbage then. That’s how bull markets are born. Trust me, nothing is going to kill this bull except higher prices. Much higher.
I believe silver will not give up until it has broken the old high, either now in a still continuing uptrend and before a more prolonged correction hits; or after a continued correction – but in any case in 2011. I think that is the nature of a real bull, and as Gary said 50 is a magnetic number; and I believe it remains to be just that until it is taken out for sure.
David,
if you are right, and you might, I would be utterly disgusted 😉 I just don’t think there will be a repeat of the action you saw when it was 4.5 to 5$. But hey, just my opinion, and yours sounds convincing too. We’ll see what will happen.
Have a good night!
Bob love Hawaii,
When silver double bottoms, I am expecting a while long candle stick to form the first section of the right leg on silver.
Mighty,
I am currently holding AGQ. And will sell tomorrow hopefully on the exhaustive candle.
James
I totally agree with DG that Gary’s way of describing things with “absolute certainty” made me loose my fear too much. And than the sudden 180 degress changes the next day were hard to understand. Like DG and others have said, Gary, I also think you should try to change your “strong” expressions.
Basil,
During this C-wave silver gained a little over 100% above the last C-wave top. Why do you think the next one has to gain 500%? Why not a move to $100 during the next C-wave?
I don’t expect a final bull market top until 2017/18
V,
I would expect the A-wave to form during the next intermediate cycle when the dollar is moving down into it’s intermediate low.
Gary,
ok, then I misread your expectations and time frame or don’t remember it correctly.
I assume you then see two more full cycles of ABCD (until 2015) and a shorter ABC (2016/17) before the final top? Something like that?
Perhaps an idea for the nightly posts/newsletter when we have the D wave summer pause to lay that out roughly?
I think at least one maybe two more ABCD waves and one parabolic bubble phase.
Those suggesting change from Gary are asking him to stray from what he does best. I suggest a modification of your own behavior rather than blame someone else for your own mistakes. Gary, just be who you are, nothing more and nothing less. sheesh.
Silver is really in backwardation, on my screen now, some moments ago spot silver 39,13 whereas July Comex SI futures 39,095. 3,5 cents. Then add that the LME is usually more ‘backward’ than Comex, and the longer out contracts like 2014 usually more than the nearest.
Gary, I don’t see how an engulfing candle formed for GLD. (You are looking at the weekly chart right?). Doesn’t the open and the close need to engulf the ensuing candle, not just the high and the low? Or am I misunderstanding the formation? Thanks.
That’s what I meant ABCD until 2015 and then a bubble top ABC 2016/17. Got it.
Good night!
Someone whoe knows about options. If am understanding how they work let me run this scenarion by you.
If we know the A-Wave is going to take Silver above $50 after August.
Couldn’t I buy A October long call of $45 during the bottom of the D-Wave in the summer when silver is at $30 or lower for like $1.00 a share and sell those contracts at the top of the A Wave ($60 dollar silver) before October for Like $5.00 a share or more?
I must be misunderstanding options because If we know silver is going lower during the summer and going a lot higher during the A-Wave it seems like easy money backing up the truck onto October SLV Call Options during the lowest point the summer and dumping them at the top of the A-Wave.
Being that I don’t believe in easy money someone please poke a hole here in my plan.
Juan, the problem is you don’t “know” the price of anything in the future. It’s difficult enough to get the price direction right. In options, you have to have the price AND time right or your calls will go to ZERO.
Anyone see this POMO:
http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/pomo/display/index.cfm?showmore=1&opertype=orig
Jayhawk,
Correct…..janszen of iTulip made those comments
Juan,
Trust me on this. Options can leave you with HUGE losses. You don’t learn to ride a bike by reading a book so proceed with caution. There are a few very good options traders here (I’m not one of em) so keep asking questions here and learn then attempt. GL
Thanks eric and Wav_Ridah
I will be sure to do my homework before the A-Wave. It just seems that we are all believers of this bull and I see a big consensus that the next major opportunity to make the big money is the A-Wave. So I might not know what the numbers will be but we are all believers the A-Wave will take it a lot higher than its lows in August. Anyways I will be sure to have optimal options knolwedge by the beginning of the A-Wave to maxmize my gains.
james r,
I got out most of my AGQ before the silver crash and dumped the last of it last week.
I’ve been following your posts and looking at charts and you are starting to sway me to your side.
What makes you think you will get an exhaustion candle tomorrow followed by a double bottom a few days later? I mean what specific tells are you looking?
I’m cheeing you on, whether I decide to come along for the ride or not.
Thanks Gary what will happen to oil once the D wave in Gold is finished? range bound
Alright James r,
Keep us updated as you make your moves.
Better than TV.
James R:
How does the double bottoms fit in with the cycle timing? I have a hard time reconciling those two. If gold keeps the swing low tomorrow, wouldn’t it completely negate the cycle by going back down right away? or is that a “failed cycle” concept, extreme left translated? Thanks.
This comment has been removed by the author.
I agree with hkc. I mean I still believe Gold can still maybe make a new high $1600 or a little more but with if the swing low is official tommorow I cant imagine a drop to 1460 then back up again before this C-Wave is over. After last weeks shake out can you imagine how shook everyone will really be after another drop of Gold to 1460 and Silver probably goes with it to 33-34. I think if we this final burst is intact at all it is happening as we speak, and the only thing that could make it better would be dollar tanking to test the lows, however I am not sure that is going to happen given the current bull flag forming in the dollar.
It sure is going to be exciting watching how this all plays out!!
Juan,
There is nothing wrong in your plan. Only thing is that if you can buy an option for $1 instead of SLV at $25 then DO NOT buy 25x the number of shares. If SLV stays at $25 you still have the original investment; but your option capital will go to zero.
I use options primarily to hedge risk or take positions after a big run to milk the trend.
We got a 60c pullback after hitting that 39.50 ish area for the 38% retracement.
However there were buyers there at the technical support areas (38% retracement of last swing and major swing pivot around 38.80.
At least in the short term it looks like the bulls want to take some sort of stand
DG
I’ve been reading your post from 5:16pm. I have only been on this blog a short while. From what I have observed you appear to be well respected because of your willingness to help others and share your trades. You appear to focus on short term trades, jumping in and out a lot. Most people choose a style that suits their personality.
Gary’s style appears to be a longer term focus. He has faith in his trading tools. When he see’s his settup he follows it with conviction through to it’s completion. To be a successful trader you have to have conviction to make big gains. If you “dilly dally” and hesitate you consistantly get reduced profits.
In your post you seem to have some hidden issues and have been waiting to pounce. Your post on the weekend thread about waiting for a bigger audience during the week before you had your say confirms this and smacks a little of grandstanding. For the book you have written and all the lectures you say you have given on stress management, your posts kinda sorta fell apart during silvers run to the recent top and subsequent correction. Maybe you need to look within for an answer to your issues.
Critique / criticism, there is a fine line between how it is perceived. The best way I know to stop the Goose with the Golden Eggs is to beat him with a stick until he stops laying the Golden Egg.
We are already seeing changes in the SMT letter from all the stick beating. I liked the old Gary.
Gary,
you said,”I would expect the A-wave to form during the next intermediate cycle when the dollar is moving down into it’s intermediate low.”
(May 10, 2011 10:01 PM)
Coud you do us newbies a favor and include the approx. date or month when you refer to “the next daily or intermediate cycle,” please? It’s hard to keep track of which cycle and which PM or $ or etc. you’re referring to.
(Or is this something that you only put in your premium report for us?) Thanks. 😉
We all see what we want to see. Gee but to call the gold and silver charts “Bear flags” is REALLY stretching the imagination!
Gary, why 2017? an 8 year cycle should print a low in 2016ish, and that just might be the end of it.
I would expect the top in 2014/2015
Juan
Problem is no one “know” there will be a d wave in the summer or that silver will be at $60 in October. If they did, your plan looks good.
Right now, assuming everything goes to your plan, you can buy SLV Oct 45s at roughly $2 (200 per contract) and sell that contract in October for a $1,300 profit. Of course if silver stays at 45 or below, you lose it all.
You could play it safer and buy Jan 45s at $2.80 and only make $1,220. That gives you more of an opportunity to roll your options further out in time if things are not going to plan but the macro picture still looks good.
The problem is no one knows the future especially with a thinly traded market like silver.
Hi Gang,
I am new to that board and following it with great interest
Two notes:
1. Why not sell puts on GLD in view of bear flag
2. There was remarquable event with UNG — first during last 2 years it crossed 200 DMA
Day 4 of the new cycle, above the 10 DMA, 60 dollars from the low, swing in place.
Assuming Gary is correct and the A wave takes gold from ca. $1300 to $1600, what is the best way to play this for someone who doesn’t use options or double etf’s?
With the miners underperforming for years now, I don’t want to risk capital and see those underperform yet again.
I’m thinking physical gold or GLD may be the only sensible option for a more conversative gold bull like myself.
Does anyone have any other suggestions? If the HUI/Gold ratio goes down to 30% a gold stock or two might be worth a shot, but I’ve no idea which ones. Is anyone else here wary of playing options or double etf’s? If so, what would be your plan?
Thanks in advance.
Juan,
Silver will almost certainly not go back to $50 during the A-wave. Gold can test the highs but then sometimes an A-wave comes up considerably short of the highs so there’s not even a guarantee that gold will make it all the way back.
Aaron,
I am expecting the next 8 year cycle low to separate the second phase of the bull from the bubble phase.
Well that would be some ride, from the bottom of te 8 yr to the top of the final blow off. Wow.
Looks like a swing low in $GOLD might be hard to come by today.
Arbiter’s Technical Market Insight
MID-WEEK TECHNICAL NOTES
Updated: Monday May 09, 2011 (05:00 PM EDT)
There will not be a weekly technical comment on Friday, May 6.
The stock market has broken its short-term uptrend and it appears that the major indices are in the process of testing their recent breakout levels. Once this expected minor pullback ends, we see the stock market marching to new recovery highs. Commodities, especially precious metals, have gotten smacked hard of late while the U.S. Dollar Index may be tracing out a short-term bottom.
We see the S&P 500 pulling back to its late-April breakout in the 1,340 region before another bullish leg to the upside. Our target area for the “500” is 1,400 to 1,430 sometime in late May or the first half of June. We believe this could be the final rally for stocks in this bull market, as we think we are in the fifth wave of a 5-wave advance. Many bull markets have been 5-wave advances. Once a top is in, we then see a major correction or potentially a bear market that lasts into 2012.
We believe the sharp decline in commodities is just a shakeout that will end very shortly. We then see another spike in commodities as the U.S. Dollar Index heads down to at least test its 2008 bear market lows.
The 10-year treasury yield appears to be tracing out a head-and-shoulders (H&S) top, as the end of the QE2 stimulus may be bullish for bonds. To complete the H&S top, yields must break below the 3.2% area. If that were to occur, we think it would open the door for a sub-3% yield on the 10-year treasury.
Mark D. Arbeter, CMT – S&P MarketScope
GARY
BAck in the fall ( and I’m sure since then) I remember you saying that other C-Waves had 2 IT cycles but you felt this one would have 3..and it has.
IF because of the FED things seem stretched and morphed a bit this time…and it doesnt LOOK LIKE a 3 yr dollar low, and it doesnt LOOK LIKE the C-wave parabola gold top…
Any chance this one COULD have 4 IT cycles? I ask because I dont know cycle possibilities, but when I look at the January sell off…it resembles this past one in April , (so far…unless we get another leg down soon). We could still get the Gold parabolic run in that case.
Thanks
I finished that wrong…another leg down would make it resemble the JULY sell off and JAN sell off’s.
silver looking ugly here…
Alex,
That is the question isn’t it. I was expecting the dollar to move below the 08 low because of the left translated nature of this three year cycle. But it clearly appears to be putting in an intermediate low here. We do have a weekly swing now.
In order to have another parabolic move we would need to see gold drop down into a mild correction and the dollar put in another weak intermediate cycle bounce.
Then the dollar would roll over into the final three year cycle low later this fall and gold would move into it’s typical parabolic final top.
What are the odds of that happening you ask?
I have no earthly idea. It would require a long 3 year dollar cycle and probably QE3 which I don’t think is politically possible without some kind of deflationary event. With job growth in the 200,000 plus every month and inflation starting to pick up I just don’t see how the Fed can possibly swing another round of QE.
Gary
Any idea what will happen to oil once the D wave in Gold is finished?
V
I dont either ,Gary, BUT if the dollar bounces theres still more room to devalue it 🙂
and Fall is typically a great run in Metals
But I was looking at GOLD on a 3 yr wkly and the Dollar on a 3 yr wkly…and neither looks anything like I have been expecting to see the whole time you spoke of the 3 yr low ( I thought $68-$70) and Golds Parabolic top…I pictures closer to $2000 personally).
I figured the C-wave top now and the A-wave in the fall.
I realize we don’t have the normal parabolic move but this C-wave has done everything one could ask of it in terms of magnitude and duration.
From the bottom of the last D-wave it’s rallied over 100%. That’s greater than any other C-wave and it’s lasted considerably longer.
Any idea what just happened to the PMs (especially silver)?
Bullion,
Take a look at the copper market.
It’s on a verge of taking out the yearly lows. It’s pressuring the rest of the metals.
A pull back to 36ish and I will add to my silver calls.
Bring it!
Gary, very interesting take on the 8 year.
That would be one hell of a play!
A-Wave in the fall fits too, and crappy summer doldrums fit also in that case.
I guess I just keep looking at the different possibilities because I cant tell if we’re in the middle of a D-Wave start here, or a strong correction and resume upward run.
I’ll just keep up with your reports and look into the trading possibilities that I usually look for and we will know soon enough.
Time always reveals that stuff anyways.
Thanks!
Big reversal on Gold overnight.
Same with Silver.
Bear flag breakdown on Copper that started last night.
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=HG&p=h1
Here’s a 10 year weekly chart on silver- it’s the one Doc/Jayhawk posted a week or 2 ago.
Silver has basically retraced from the top to the bottom of it’s bull market channel.
http://i53.tinypic.com/2ngaav5.jpg
NEW POST
Alex-
I have that we already are in the 4th Intermediate cycle of this C Wave.
I show them starting in (roughly:
April 09
Feb 10
July 10
Jan 11
It seems to me that most of the discussion is on the resolution of this cycle, which is only in its 15th week. And so I assume that you are suggesting that we might add a 5th intermediate cycle to this C-Wave?
@Gary
Good post and wise words.
Thanks
Sillverhound. Thanks for writing. several things
Grandtsanding: you yourself said I write to help others. Waiting for a bigger audience during the week was just that. I feel that the issue I brought up was important for others to use the site successfully and that’s why i wanted more people to see it. How is that grandstanding? What’s the point of writing a useful post if no one reads it? Why do you assume i did that for my own sake after saying I try to be helpful?
Trading: I do both short term and long term trading .I bought AGQ at 152 and sold it at 365. That took a while. The “overstating certainty” issue has nothing to do with trading I don’t think.
“Waiting to pounce” Again, where is the evidence for this? I posted in March, before the recent smackdown, something like, “Your overstated confidence is going to lead people over a cliff someday.” I am now posting after the event. How is this “waiting to pounce?”
Killing the goose: I have now written to Gary twice saying “I think this is important, but I do not want to pile on after the recent losses. You yourself must not be all that happy either, so if you prefer, let me know and I will let the issue rest. He wrote back to me saying: “I have an enormously thick skin. Go right ahead and post.” I took that as a green light. Still i hesitated but decided that 1. He might actually modify his certainty (from “:No way in hell” kind of statements to “It seems very likely.”) and 2. I really want other to remember all of this so they don’t get crushed next time he is wrong.
Any of my points above might be wrong, but I at least wanted you to know where I was coming from.
At the end of QE1 (4/1/10) gold rallied for 13% in 3 months, despite the dollar rallying 7% and the S&P falling 6%. Gold/Euro rallied 22% during that period
I am out of all positions having sold the last of my DGP today (I was waiting for the first down day). I am having a solid if unspectacular year and am content to wait for clarity. I have learned not to try to swing at every pitch. Here’s too the A wave. I will post other trades as I see them. Good luck everybody!
I agree with Steven completely…and i think he stated it well. He is not quarterbacking and he makes a strong case….The May 3 call was for a parabolic move up, and frankly that was just wrong. Everyone has to take responsibility for their own actions, including you Gary. The call was wrong. That’s ok, it happens, BUT, it was a bad call. Onward, upward.
I’ve said repeatedly I missed the call. I thought the dollar had one more leg down and the correction in silver would be a normal daily cycle correction.
How many more times do you need me to repeat it?
I was ready to convert to gold but got caught by the Monday gap down.
I agree with Steven completely. He is not quarterbacking. He makes very valid points about WHY he didn’t exit in time. Largely due to missed call. On May 3 the daily report called for a dip and then a strong move higher. This call was wrong. His frustration is completely understandable, and I share it.
I heard him take responsibility for his own actions, but I haven’t heard you do the same.
test
said…..