944 thoughts on “PORTFOLIO CHANGE

  1. Harry

    Can’t believe I’m really buying all the way up here in the stratosphere, but I guess that’s why cycle theory rocks so hard.

  2. Harry

    I guess I have buyer’s remorse already, Gary, but shouldn’t we wait for a breakout from this resistance level?

    You know what I’m just going to turn off my fucking computer and go eat something. Maybe drink something.

  3. ALEX

    S.B. and AARON

    Silver may be a risk as a broken parabola, no doubt…but I believe that it has based and will double top or even could make new highs.

    I may be wrong,and MANY parabolas never recover as Gary said… but I base it on other parabolas that I have seen…and they based in 2 months ( it’s all about supply/demand…people wanted them)

    I think Silver will return to favor and shorts will be trapped.

    ex: $2+ to $10+ = 400% in 4 months, then drops to $6 IN ONE DAY

    http://www.screencast.com/t/nEu3yS0CO

    New highs

    http://www.screencast.com/t/rLyWt8szrzEX

    I own EXK, AG, and SVM currently

    no recommendation..trade at your own risk levels 🙂

    P.S. Gary is playing it smarter , less risk with Gold . I am in front of a P.C. all day and have willing to risk a cavity in the candy store 🙂

  4. Gary

    Harry,
    It seems like you are trying to time a perfect entry into a bull market without ever having to suffer a draw down.

    The only time that is possible is at an intermediate bottom. I got us in at that bottom. If you didn’t take that entry then don’t expect to be able to enter without a draw down.

  5. traderlady

    Thank you ALEX! I have positions and looking to add. I did start EXK and AG at the open and shall maybe add at mid day:)

    Happy Trading:)

  6. Benjamin

    If gold is manipulated by an evil cartel that pushes prices down, then how can it be so overbought (looking at macd) on the weekly charts? It’s been overbought for 2 years.. Crazy

  7. Shalom Bernanke

    Alex,

    I agree on silver. Not at all concerned about the broken parabola at this stage of the bull. One day, yes, but not now.

    We own the same names, except I’ve got PHYS too. 🙂

  8. Gary

    Benjamin,
    I too have to wonder how anyone can look at a 10 year chart of gold and even contemplate the possibility of manipulation.

    It’s just absurd.

  9. Harry

    Gary, I bought a contract back at $1527 and a second at $1553 so I’m certainly able to withstand a drawdown from here. I’m just a bit more nervous about holding three all the way up here at the all-time highs. Really the smartest thing to do is to just walk away and come back at the next daily cycle low to buy a fourth.

  10. Gary

    The problem was silver is that you still have a ton of trapped longs that are going to want to get out.

    Just a normal daily cycle correction in gold could smash silver right back down into the consolidation zone.

    Silver is a has been. I don’t invest in has-beens. That’s why I haven’t touched oil for the last three years.

    Once silver has had a chance to consolidate for one to three years then I will be interested in silver again.

  11. WalterW

    Funny, I wonder how anyone can look at a 10 year chart of gold and NOT even contemplate the possibility of manipulation.

  12. Shalom Bernanke

    lol…calling silver a “had been” is rather extreme, considering it’s a PM along with gold and even if it does not outperform is likely to head the same direction.

    Also, we talk silver but are invested in silver miners. Sure they’re correlated, but nothing has outpaced the silver miners off the recent bottom.

    I’m not arguing one as better than the other, just that pretending silver and gold will go in opposite directions is ludicrous.

  13. Gary

    I don’t pretend to believe that silver and gold will go in opposite directions. But I do know there is great risk for 2006 type events in a broken parabola.

    Gold could enter a normal $50 daily cycle correction. And at the same time nervous silver longs could panic and send silver from $40 to 32 again in the blink of an eye.

  14. E

    The reason everything is surging is because, as predicted, the Chairsatan appears to have just ushered in QE3: “The possibility remains that the recent economic weakness may prove more persistent than expected and that deflationary risks might reemerge, implying a need for additional policy support. The Federal Reserve remains prepared to respond should economic developments indicate that an adjustment of monetary policy would be appropriate.”

  15. ALEX

    We were approaching old highs yesterday and some spoke of “…resistance and a possible pullback, so why not sell.”

    To give you am example of how powerful a move this could be ( if you think of selling or even waiting for a pullback to buy )

    This could happen with gold…the patterns are similar–as it approached previous highs

    http://www.screencast.com/t/Yu0T183W

    3 months later, same stock

    http://www.screencast.com/t/iuTtxj3B9

    Bottom is confirmed and Gold can be WAY stronger than this stock was

  16. Aaron

    Gary, in the futures market (the one that actually dictates SLV), no trapped long could have held from 49 down to 33, the account got wiped out a long time ago… so the idea that there are trapped longs waiting to get out, is a moot point.

  17. Aaron

    Also, silver has no one interested, specially with the ridiculous margin requirements (no small investor can even afford to play it), and the COT reports painting a rather bullish picture, not seen in a long time.
    PS. The parabola did break, but the break was not natural (forced/manipulated)

  18. Harry

    Gary, you should have a love advice blog/show where you can say things like, “You’re trying to time a perfect entry into a relationship and it’s just not going to happen.”

  19. David Kafrick

    Aaron,

    Not everyone in the futures markets trades with leverage.

    There are lots and lots of trapped longs waiting to sell silver. Just take a look at Wheat´s parabola last year and see how markets react after it is broken.

  20. Ivan

    Gary,Gold is going really with a very fast speed.I think if we have another 20 weeks like this it would go over 2000.Is there a way top of the C wave to happen in less than 10 weeks period from now and have a left translated cycle?

  21. Aaron

    David, there are two main reasons you trade futures. mostly, its leverage, and then to a lesser extent, tax benefits. The majority of futures accounts use leverage, and when margins are tripled in a month, it kills speculation. The COTs show that too. There simply very little speculation remaining in the silver market, nothing compared to what we had in April for instance.

  22. Clarkatroid

    i see your logic in the broken parabola, but silver is such a thinly traded market that i see the weighting to this theory is reduced or at least tempered as precious metals investing becomes more prominent to the general public.

    if your average chinaman buys a couple kilos of physical silver because of the macro picture, and this happens the world over, then surely physical demand underpins the the paper price?

  23. TommyD

    I have 120 silver dollar pieces I got for around $25 each. I think I am just going to hold-on to them as the least they could fetch would be $1…

    Holding the physical silver, however little, I can sleep at night and just know I have it. If it was in my stock portfolio I would not sleep that well, FWIW.

  24. David Kafrick

    Aaron,

    The greatest benefit of trading futures is not leverage, but margin.

    If you have 1 million dollars, you can buy 1 million dollars worth of gold and at the same time buy 1 million dollars worth of S&P. You are not leveraged in any single instrument, although your account as a whole is leveraged.

  25. SkepticSquirrel

    Good grief, one week Bernanke says additional stimulus would help little. The next week he says they are preparing more. Obviously he intends to create confusion.

  26. WalterW

    > Seriously? This looks like a manipulated
    > market to you?

    Under the circumstances of a giant ponzi scheme being built up over that particular period in housing, Treasuries, dollar, euro etc (and even inflation, if one can ponzi that): yes indeed it does. Considering all that, gold should have risen MUCH faster and MUCH higher.

    There is no law that says rigging markets can only exist in the form of propping things up. It can just as well be applied to keeping things down.

    My turned-around remark implied the gold chart doesn’t proof anything and I just meant to show that making the exact opposite point is just as valid. “Even contemplate the possibility of ” is a phrase that essentially has no bearing, neither your way nor mine – but it sure sounds mighty convincing.

    One can (and in this particular case I’d suggest one should) always ‘contemplate the possibility of’.

  27. Dan

    Anyone else concerened we will wake up one of these days to a massive gap down? Am fully invested here but am also concerned that this rate of increase is not sustainable and often ends with massive gap downs.

  28. ALEX

    I’m leaving for the day…some great potential in these miners charts.

    Even baby rockets like AAU are up 10%.

    Very nice.

    slap me for saying this , but GSS looks like it has potential too.

    Good day all!

  29. Mr. T

    All The Bernank knows to do is print. His academic career is based on printing to get out of the depression. If it’s a deep recession bordering on depression, he’ll “run home to mama” and print. He is as dovish as it gets. It is FAR more politically undesirable to tighten than to print.

    Bob and weave, bob and weave…
    If you act like you don’t know what you are doing, then people will think you don’t know what you are doing 🙂 I think he thinks he knows what he’s doing.

    “How could there NOT be a QE3?” – Dave Rosenberg

  30. ALEX

    Dan

    To add a little comfort…there will be days up, and pullbacks, but more like 4 days up, 2 back 5 days up, 3 back…

    If you look at GLD for example, on a 6 month chart. It ran FEB to MAY , then sideways consolidation…so this move is a continuation and can run as it did Feb to May , only if it goes parabolic at the end…add a couple months and a steeper incline at the end.

    We are JUST breaking free from the consolidation…plenty of room to run.

  31. Avann

    I’ll weight in here regarding silver.
    Silver will most definitely follow gold up … however … it’s not the upside that’s in question, it’s the downside.
    You all are very familiar how we got caught last time. Unless you trade 24 hours a day and are willing to watch the charts like a cat on a mouse you will most likely get caught again.
    Personally I cannot trade futures so I’m limited to trading hours and therefore I’ll stick to gold this time.

  32. Poly

    This is a continuation IT cycle and it projects to a “minimum” of $1,774 by Nov.

    The rest is noise, fear and emotions. Trade the IT cycle and enjoy the summer.

  33. Avann

    TommyD .. you should trade them in for maples … at least the Canadian versions have a $5 face value … and it’s Canadian Dollars FWIW.

  34. Alex in Montana

    SILVER

    Eric Sprott, James Dines, James Turk are convinced gold:silver ratio hits 16 to 1.

    Pick your gold target: $2,500 – $5000 and apply the ratio of 16:1.

    Silver will be well into the 100’s before this is over by Gary’s 2016/2017 date. Maybe short/intermediate term silver goes sideways, and I am glad it does as I am a buyer of physical silver.

  35. areyouwithme

    If anyone does not think that the shorts are getting clobbered, remember that ZSL made a low of $12.83 when AGQ was $382.08….SO if per chance AGQ was to get back to $382 then ZSL would go to about $7.00. Amazing how people get robbed these days…NO, I do not think that AGQ will re-visit $382 anytime soon…just exposing the sink hole

  36. Peter

    Can someone explain how GDX tends to move during a IT cycle? It appears much more volatile and susceptible to pullbacks. Looking at a long term chart it seems to follow the general markets much more.

    Would you expect it to match GLD?

  37. Michael

    If you have a nice slug of long call options in anything gold, then you are about 15-50% (or more) more heavily invested in terms of your overall gold exposure today compared to yesterday because of rising option delta and rising share prices.

  38. DP

    ND – good question.

    “How come all of you invest in etf’s rather than than the spot or futures market??”

    As for me, I am more comfortable with call options, since not subject to margin calls, which are quite probable with PM’s volatility , IMHO.

    Am I right?

  39. royboy1979

    Poly,
    Been enjoying your commentary regarding options and have learned quite a bit. The item I have been trying to develop in my own mind is at what point do you like to take gains? I’m sure you have goals for each of your option plays, so this is a loaded question maybe. For example, I’m sitting with 3 GLD Sep 17’s at 147 at an average of 4.71 and see nearly 100 percent gains since I purchased but now Gold has much more room to run. Do you take these types of gains and run to different plays or just let it ride for awhile? My fear is that if GLD is 165-170 in late August the ability to unload these so deep in the money will be much tougher with less open interest. Any thoughts here? I appreciate your posts a great deal in this area. Take care.

  40. Glen

    One thing that doesn’t make sense to me about this “conspiracy” to keep the price of gold down – if they are always suppressing the price, when do they take profits?

  41. Cory

    Don’t take gains. Read Old Turkey. I put 2 million + in AGQ in 2009 and Gary kept me in until late April.

    40 —> 320 Never took gains.

    Surprises to the upside in a bull.

  42. DP

    GLD is above upper Keltner bound.

    Looking at the history, probability is on the side of pulling back to 20 EDMA or 50 SDMA, maybe tomorrow.

  43. Dan

    Cory,

    What are your main holdings for this run? Again in agq or have you switched over to something else?

  44. royboy1979

    Cory,
    if you’re talking to me I understand your perspective…and congrats on the huge AGQ play and substantial gain! From an option perspective, I know things change because of time and was trying to get wind of how people get to selling strategies in this area. Trying to develop my own ideas here but I’m either to early or late! Want to develop a quality method for selling in options, that’s all. Been disappointed in some mistakes I have made in the past.

  45. oa92000

    ” Cory said…
    Don’t take gains. Read Old Turkey. I put 2 million + in AGQ in 2009 and Gary kept me in until late April.

    40 —> 320 Never took gains.”

    good jobs!!

  46. DP

    Cory —

    “…Just go .5-.1 over the ask, the algos will hit them for you…”

    Would you please elaborate on that? Especially, what 0.5-0.1 mean?

    Congratulations with big gains, by the way.

  47. Poly

    Royboy,

    I don’t mind sharing.
    I do not take any gains within a daily cycle (like right here) as I refuse to lose my position. I will (attempt) to take profits on 25-50% of my position on a big spike if it occurs within the timing band for a daily cycle low.
    After a pullback I will reload as close to the DCL as possible, but I do not get greedy. This let’s you sell when volatility (higher premiums) and get back in at lower prices and premiums.
    The rest of the positions will ride (and roll) from Week 1 to Week 12-15 of the entire IT cycle.

    Good luck.

  48. royboy1979

    Poly,
    I appreciate the insight into your strategy…it helps a great deal. So, if I am getting you straight, if you had SLV calls today (hypothetically speaking) you would attempt to sell a 1/4 to a 1/2 of your position because of this spike (these are assumptions with SLV up 5% currently). Does that constitute a large spike for you? Does a move above 1.5-2 percent in the GLD meet your criteria? Or am I wrong in looking at the ETF’s base price and should I just be looking at the price of the option when considering this? If so, what would be a spike in your mind in the option? 30 percent? 50 percent? I feel like I’m rambling here, so excuse me. Again thanks, and please don’t feel bad about not divulging any things you want to keep close to the vest.

  49. Haggerty

    I keep checking my phone like a crackhead at work. I see the dollar down huge….is it possible it broke out to get all the technical traders long, before heading down to a 3 year low?

  50. Poly

    Roy,

    No not now, this is the meat of the gains, we are barely mid daily cycle here, day 8! I will not sell on day 8 of a brand new IT cycle or of any daily cycle really.

    The spike would need to occur within the timing band, so around day 20+. The spike is not only price based, it would need to meet criteria that signal a cycle top is imminent and likely to reverse.

  51. Dan

    If we were to correct from here that would be an ugly chart as it would ook like a failed breakout for gold. Some would probably argue a double top.

  52. basil

    I didn’t know he’s investing in silver. Luckily I’ve been right all year with my PM investments and timing.

  53. Duuuuuude

    Basil, without the benefit of you posting your PM trading methods, it is really hard to tell, but to say there was not a parabolic spike in silver is really not in touch with reality. Its silly.

  54. basil

    Silver had a high of $21 in 2008. Three years later we’re not even double that. That’s all you expect from the ‘trade of the decade’? How are you going to make any money in silver if that’s all the faith you have?

  55. gold silver troll

    Hey guys,

    Question: not a long time subscriber…

    but i’ve seen that rallies like this end ugly. Miners and Gold and rallying nicely.

    I know that it is only week 2 of the IT cycle and we have ways to go, but I am already feeling scared and dont feel too good..and want to sell…any advice?

  56. Poly

    It’s hardly a parabola IMO too. A parabola will essentially retrace an entire move.
    When viewed over a longer horizon, this recent run appears to be a very impressive speculative rally that (to date) ended with just a 35% retrace. Factor the volatile nature of Silver, the beating it took in 2008 and the 2 year consolidation, it doesn’t look that out of the ordinary.

  57. basil

    Dude,

    my trading method is simple:

    Buy the assets that benefit from continued QE, a period of global instability, and global government purchasing.
    If such an asset sells off 45% as silver did in May, buy more.

    There’s no other trading method I need.

  58. Harry

    What does everyone think the dollar is up to now? The DX futures contract is off more than a point and a half in less than a day and a half. Failed breakout higher?

  59. basil

    Re-purchasing silver in the mid $30s was the right move. Purchasing it once it will exceed $40 might be a short to mid term mistake as there is no way knowing when it will pass $50 again and how much it will bounce around, but I believe it’s unlikely that it will ever pass $30 on the downside.

  60. KAL

    Hey smart folks, can you all give me some emotional advice? Read on before laughing…

    I’ve learned that I am an Old Turkey type investor I will hold through too much downside, and risk too much while doing it. I have too much faith in Gary, myself, whatever, but I need to be more protective of my capital. Lesson learned. The good thing is I will sit and wait patiently when I’m in a good strong hand spot. That at least is a positive.

    I’ve also found I’m greedy and suck at quick trades; no scapling for me probably ever ever. I lost a bit on shorting that recent downtrend. Listen to Gary! Lesson learned.

    Now, I find myself kicking myself for not getting in NUGT as well as DGP, GDX, and GDXJ, and missing out on those extra returns. I feel as if I missed the best yacht in the marina when it was sitting in the slip waiting on me. (Athough it rocks to be on the yacht I’m on, thanks Gary!)

    I know I’m taking this seriously, but this is a serious thing we’re doing, is it not? I am a perfectionist and I see that in my personality with my trades. Therein lies some great danger for me, trying to get aggressive to maximize returns… Options, etc.

    I guess what I’m asking from you super-experienced traders is, how do you respond in this situation that I find myself in to stay in a peaceful inner/mental state? I know slow and steady wins the race, etc. but fast and steady would seem to win bigger.

    Thanks… Hope this is a couple degrees clearer than river mud after a thunderstorm.

    This is a great group of folks. Y’all are awesome.

  61. basil

    Harry,

    I believe the dollar is in a trading range like it was in the sumer of 2008. If that trading range will be equally long this time, we have another three months before the dollar will either break higher or lower. If it does break lower then, I believe it will be a quick and steep move before it will mark a bottom and run higher.

  62. Farm Girl

    Elaine – thanks, but the credit goes to John Doody, who said the miners are at their thrid buy point in 8 years.

    gold silver troll – “I am already feeling scared and dont feel too good..and want to sell…any advice?”

    When you are not scared,feeling good and wishing you’d bought more – sell! C-waves don’t give the sideline cash a graceful opportunity to buy back in, and Gary says we’re in a C-wave. Long way to go.

  63. KAL

    Whisperer, I get ya. Looking less for a hug, and more for pragmatic trading strategies. All I can think of is turn off the computer, that’s about all I hear around here as a cure for what ails ya. The thing I don’t want to do is mess up the next trade. Know what I mean?

  64. Farm Girl

    From http://bit.ly/qnepwc

    Former Goldman Sachs trader Andrew Maguire says the new Pan Asia Gold Exchange will create huge new demand that will drive gold prices sky high and there is concrete evidence that China plans to bring the remninbi to the world stage.

    “The Pan Asia Gold Exchange is going to send shockwaves through the mechanisms for the price discovery for both gold and silver,” Maguire tells King World News. “It’s backed by China’s state administration for foreign exchange and also the Chinese security regulatory commission.”

    Maguire expects that the first contract — a 10-ounce gold mini-contract for the domestic Chinese retail market — will go live this month.

    “It’s going to have a major impact on the demand side of precious metals equation … there are 320 million customers of Ag bank of China, who going to be plugged into this exchange platform.”

    “If just 1 percent of their customers bought a single 10-oz. contract, that would require new physical demand of 1,000 tons.”

    However, Maguire, who has long suspected manipulation in the gold and silver markets, says the biggest bombshell is the offer of RMB gold contracts for international investors.

    “I know it’s going to attract a lot of the world’s precious metal business, providing much more of the Chinese and the international customers an alternative platform on which they can buy and sell buy and sell physical gold and silver,” he says.

    Maguire believes the impact on silver will be much more pronounced. “We know silver is a much small market and it’s already in tight supply,” he notes.

    “This is the tinder box.”

  65. DP

    Elaine —

    Sorry, was away. I cannot name those resistance values in terms of the gold index, but in terms of GLD it would be around 148-149.

    The next resistance would be 145.

    By no means that is not to sell, but rather to add the positions.

  66. Dan

    I would wait till we clearly break into all time highs before adding. At this point we are only a few dollars away and this would be the logical place for a correction / consolidation to potentially take place.

  67. Harry

    Gann, your charts are great but I’m not buying this one. Er, I am. I mean, I don’t see a topping candle on the GC and I’m comfortable holding where I am. I’ll stick with the cycles for now; it’s only Day 8.

  68. Gann360

    Harry by no Means am i Saying you should sell ,,, and this is a Daily Chart, and the Day isn’t over with Yet.

    I am Just Saying ,Double Tops usually are a Good place to Take some Profits .And to expect a Consolidation Period ( Pullback ) and than after ,say a 3 day Pullback GLD Makes another Run for the High’s ,and this Time it Sticks.

    Like i said it’s speculation on my Part, Lets see how the Daily candle Closes .But it’s still something to Consider

  69. Bruce

    hate to ruin the partay, but toppy GLD candleschtik and overbought …. gold could consolidate for a bit/test the b/o

  70. Cory

    I’m holding all silver miners, 90% invested at the moment. I don’t go over 100% until after the first pullback so I know my risk. I don’t think silver will reach new highs or possibly even double top. I think it will be a Fib retracement of the collapse. Silver just has a higher beta and the miners are in the same etfs as the gold miners. AG is up much more than gold, but carries company specific risk, which can be evened out by buying many different companies or buying SIL etc.

  71. wallofworry

    Bruce & DP,
    My thought exactly, red candlestick tomorrow AND Friday if you ask me.
    Especially for silver.

    Just have some dry powder to buy more when things level off by next Tuesday.

  72. DP

    Cory —

    If you don’t mind sharing, can I repeat my question:

    “…Just go .5-.1 over the ask, the algos will hit them for you…”

    Would you please elaborate on that? Especially, what 0.5-0.1 mean?

    Congratulations with big gains, by the way.

  73. Michael

    KAL,
    Good questions and issues thanks, apart from the sound advice on stage of cycle that we’re at here — more experienced investors know there’s a bus leaving every 20 minutes and don’t fret, would roll with the punches and be switching to the “stock follow stock” game now that a trend has been established to squeeze something out of it if they’ve missed the initial move, knowing they can’t buy gold at 1500 would be looking for a set-up in say laggers that may have turned – AEM, GSS or JAG her and now rather than digging a deeper hole chasing XG, buy it right or don’t buy it at all deserves respect, let price come to you …

  74. Rob L.

    We are only on day 8 of the daily cycle. If we believe in cycle analysis there should be 2 more weeks before any significant pull backs.

  75. Cory

    DP,

    On deep in the money puts/calls, they are not as speculative and have lower volume and a wider bid/ask spread such as 9.9 – 10.1. If you go within .05 or .1 of the bid/ask depending on if you are buying or selling you will usually fill your order immediately by market makers/algos even if there is zero volume on the day. Most options trades are retail speculators or big money hedging for tax purposes at or around the current strike. Only medium-medium large portfolios typically buy DITM options because there is slippage at the buy point and sell point. For me it is worth it over other ways of selling short:

    Inverse ETFs – slippage because of recalculations daily

    ATM or OTM options – timing and direction have to be perfect or all value is destroyed to time decay, direction is tough enough

    Shorting stocks – margin interest rate from your broker, if they even have the shares to short

    DITM options – predetermined risk and minimal time/volatility decay with a high delta, small slippage on entry/exit

    Hope that helps.

  76. Michael

    Re the market manipulation argument – I think you’re all right. Ofcourse there’s no market manipulation on long timeframes in gold that Gary shows, ofcourse there’s a massive amount of manipulation on short- and medium-term timeframes in less liquids like silver …

    The e-mails in this series of scandalous articles below make super reading — “er, if the jobs data is bad we’re going to smack our silver short into the ground,… but, er, if the jobs data is good, we’re going to wait 5 minutes …. and …. then …. smack the daylights out of our silver short!”

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/jpm-hsbc-sued-conspiracy-keep-silver-price-low-reaping-billions-illegal-profits

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/whistleblower-exposes-jp-morgans-silver-manipulation-scheme

  77. Ryan

    From the last IT bottom, I said to myself this time, I’m going to go all in and NOT chase but you know what? I’m chasing AGAIN. I bought 2 big chunks today, morning and afternoon. I’m about 65% now.

  78. DP

    Cory —

    Thank you very much, very tutoring.

    I owe you burrito.

    What part of the country are you from?

  79. Gary

    Rob,
    That is not correct. There can be short-term corrections at any time. All cycles really tell us is when to expect the next significant correction. For gold they tend to occur every 18 to 28 days.

    But that doesn’t mean that we can’t have minor corrections in the meantime. Often will get some kind of minor corrective action about halfway through a cycle.

  80. Slumdog

    Duuuuuude said…

    Basil, without the benefit of you posting your PM trading methods, it is really hard to tell, but to say there was not a parabolic spike in silver is really not in touch with reality. Its silly.

    Dude, go back and look at SI in 1980.
    Your words would be spoken right before silver took off for another 25% rise.

  81. Cory

    Don’t worry about it DP. Chipotle has a VIP card you can get worth 1 burrito a day for an entire year. I’m getting Gary a lifetime supply in 2016.

  82. Gary

    Comparing the recent run and silver to 1980 is not applicable. That was during the final blowoff stages of a secular bull market. We are still in the second phase of this bull market and nobody with a lick of common sense can look at that long-term chart of silver and not realize that that was the most massive parabolic move of this entire bull market yet.

    Silver gained 500% in two years.

  83. MrMiyagi

    And lastly,
    JPM and GOOG earnings reports tomorrow.
    JPM before the open and GOOG usually after close. If Google puts in some really good numbers, we may see an up day on Friday in the tech-zone. Then again we may see an up day anyway.

  84. catbird

    It’s really something to pull up a weekly chart of gold going back to the beginning of 2009.

    We get so caught up in daily and even intra-day wiggles that sometimes it seems the “roller coaster” is bumpier than it really is.

    This C-wave that began in 2009 has just been a relentless, almost methodical chug higher.

    The May 1 fireworks when viewed on the weekly look like a total non-event.

    I’m easily amused.

  85. catbird

    I wish I was all in but I’m not because I keep thinking GLD will tag its 10 DMA any day now. Probably wishful thinking.

    So I’m thinking of, well, lowering my standards. Anybody think GLD will back-test the $153 level (from May 1) imminently?

  86. Dave

    Is there a way to get notified about changes to the portfolio (twitter?)? This morning I checked one hour before the open and there was nothing, only to find out this afternoon that the portfolio was calling for a buy, on the open no less.

  87. Glenn

    Moodys reviewing US AAA rating because of the impass over debt ceiling…
    Gold inching upward after hours…Gary was right on on this call…

  88. David

    Has anybody contemplated the effect of a budget deal on the price of gold?

    How much of gold’s recent rally can be attributed to the looming debt ceiling showdown?

    Once a deal is struck, the spotlight will again be on Italy and Spain, and the dollar will presumably resume its rise.

    I realize that I sound a little Beanie-esqe here, but it just seems to me that sentiment is a little giddy, suggesting that the risks right now are to the downside.

  89. Dave

    I have been reading about decay in leveraged ETFs and am interested to know people’s thoughts on holding leveraged ETFs like DGP and NUGT until the next intermediate top. Many articles advise that these are really only for intra-day trading.

  90. Gary

    As long as the underlying asset is trending strongly in the right direction they will perform as advertised and often outperform.

    In a market that’s going against you or one that is chopping around sideways they will decay.

  91. The Angry Hippie

    Strong work, Gary. Appreciate all the leg work you do. Makes it easy to pull the trigger and enter. Caught silvers finish a little late but feel right on time for this run up.

    60% NUGT
    40% GDXJ

    100% ballin’!

  92. DG

    If I may: Gary is great at IT bottoms. It was his gift to us to nail this one. I can’t even count how many posts there are every day here asking “Is now a good time to buy?” The good time was when Gary called the low. If you didn’t buy then what makes you think you will and the next “good time to buy?” Trading is a psychological battle every day. Rather than asking “Is this a good time to buy?” ask “Why DIDN”T I buy when gary said to? What is that weakness in me?” Then root it out or this will happen over, and over, and over…The same emotion that prevented you from buying the IT bottom will prevent you from buying the next dip, no? Buying right takes two variables to be in play: the right time, and the guts to hit “send” on the order…and the right time doesn’t matter in a bull market because you’ll get bailed out anyway. That leaves…

    Great work, Gary. Thanks and good luck at the tournament.

  93. MarkMarin

    I 100% back DG’s observations on buying, or lack thereof, at Gary’s IT gold bottom call. Making that call to a large list of subscribers is much more difficult than doing it on your own without the responsibility of all the folks who follow your recommendations.

    Just a fantastic call Gary. Kudos!

  94. Dave

    Thanks, Gary.

    DG and Mark – hindsight is 20-20. Before bashing the ignoramuses that twiddled away profits, remember that at the time Gary called the recent IT bottom and re-initiated positions in gold, it was right on the heels of numerous reports saying that the dollar was on the way up and gold was about to take a pretty significant drop down to the 150 or 200 DMA. Then, on a dime, as in one report later, the story was gold had already bottomed and we’re back on the bull. It’s easy to say do what Gary does, but when Gary himself switches tunes that fast, it’s no wonder some (including me) hesitated. This isn’t to criticize Gary, but to explain why people were justifiably inclined to wait and see.

  95. DG

    Dave: Yes, I understand. But attributing a hesitation problem to an outside condition means we learn nothing and never get better at this game. There’s ALWAYS at least one reason for inaction. Having noticed many of the same people making the same error over and over makes one wonder whether or not they should change their trading psychology rather than hoping for/waiting for a perfect unambiguous setup for them to enter full size. Ain’t ever gopna happen.

  96. Felix

    Very quick question: If the current IT cycle turns out to be a C-wave (no promises – might be better if not anyway, bigger one later), would the expectation of avg. +24% be significantly higher, or at least possibly higher?

  97. Gary

    Felix,
    It will all depend on how stretched above the mean gold becomes.

    Stretching a long ways above the 200 day moving average is what causes a D-wave.

    Action and reaction. The rubber band theory.

    By bottoming well above the 200 day moving average and moving to new highs in only seven days gold is now set up to stretch considerably above the mean during this intermediate cycle putting into place the conditions for a severe the D-wave decline.

  98. Gary

    Dave,
    Because gold didn’t do what I was expecting it to do that was a very big clue that the intermediate cycle had bottomed. When the market doesn’t do what it’s supposed to do it’s usually a good idea to take notice.

    I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again, when the market tells me I’m wrong I change direction as quickly as possible. I am not going to lose money because I’m too stupid, or even worse, stubborn, to change my mind.

  99. Felix

    Gary – Thank you. Also, your answer to Dave (not to mention your cycles!) confirms how you’re worth your weight-class in gold.

  100. Razvan

    the problem is i cant enter a position now due to the Frank Dodd act which has banned OTC gold and silver trading. I dont feel comfortable trading leveraged positions any other way so i dont know what to do right now. Futures seems to require to much margin , not to mention being vulnerable to margin increases. Does anybody know of any way to increase leverage with low margin requirements?

  101. Natanarchist

    After doing nothing but twiddling my thumbs and spending money, time to make some cash.
    Gary…nice call. I know I was one of the very few that never liquidated all positions. I only added a little more on your bottom call as I was thinking the “two week early Gary “indicator might be in play. HAHA. I have almost 60% cash so just I’ll keep adding all the way through this daily cycle.

    re: gold/silver Crimex/LBMA shenanigans…manipulation is not price suppression.

    Re:gold as money.

    money is
    1) store of value
    2) medium of exchange
    3) divisible

    Gold is
    1) Store of value
    2) a medium of exchange
    3) Divisible. (this is important.)

    Gold is Money, always has been for 4000 thousand years, and still is today.

    And I am with those who think silver will hit triple digits.

    Alex in Montana:
    Had an awesome 10 days in Banff and area. Wife wants to move there..haha..I better make a boat load of cash for that to happen. Plus she has to do one Alberta winter first.

    good luck to all. old turkey for this IT cycle and lets all make our Christmas cash!

  102. diana

    …at ease,
    “It would be the same stop loss for GDX contingent on GLD.”

    I will check Thursday to see if Fidelity will do that. I just started trading with them. Otherwise, do I base it on the same percentage that the stop loss is below GLD? Thanks for answering!

  103. aubug

    G’day from Downunder,

    Graveyard shift reporting for duty.It’s only 5:20 pm here.

    Any other Aussies out there?
    Didn’t our goldies scream higher today! The juniors I trade were up 2% to 6% today after a similar day yesterday. The missus is already talking about a cruise to the Mediterranean, so I had better shut up about how much I’m making! How about PoG $1600 this week?

    My chart calculations are predicting $1748 by Mid-Oct to late Nov. Time to squeeze in two or three daily cycles so I can’t decide if I want to trade or hold. Maybe 50-50.

    G’nite from Oz.

  104. Dubbelito

    Gary,
    very nice report, as usual, thanks!
    Good luck at the weight lifting contest!

    To all the hesitating fellows out there; re-read Gary’s previous reports from where he announced the IT cycle low and forwards. He outlines a perfectly good strategy there for you to digest and then decide on your own.

    If you didn’t buy when Gary said buy, then why would you ask for his advice over and over later on?

    I also fully agree with DG’s excellent comment; take a cup of coffee and contemplate what it was that made you hesitate from the beginning when he says “buy”. Was it because he changed his mind? If so that is utterly insane. Would it be better if he kept on repeating that we will soon go into a 200DMA IT cycle low when we now see new highs? No. It’s infinitely better that he is agile and willing to flip stance when the available signs says so. I for one REALLY appreciate this attribute and that was the main reason why I decided to subscribe and really listen to what he says.

    Now go back, read up and DECIDE what you want to do and when to do it. Heck, write it down.

    Maybe some of you are really loss-shy and cannot stand looking at red figures? If so maybe you are using too much leverage?

    Final point; extend your charts and look at last 3-4 years. Secular bull, people. It forgives small timing errors.
    Have a nice day everyone.

  105. ...at ease

    Yes Diana, Call Fidelity rep and they will walk you through the order set up for sell orders on stocks contingent to GLD stop trigger amount.

  106. David and Courtney

    Trading question. Fidelity says if I sell a stock/etf purchased with unsettled funds, it’s a good faith violation and my account could be frozen. Settling takes 3 business days after a sale. That effectively means I can make only about 1 intraday trade a week. What kind of account do I need to get around this? Basically how do the day traders set up their accounts? Thanks.

  107. Slumdog

    Words won’t stop the move in SI.

    How can silver be done when the Gold/Silver ratio moved from 43+ to 40+ while these have both been rising?

    We are watching in the premarket (for those here in the US) another Merc Pit gap, which I will label an exhaustion gap, if it will stay above the prior day’s high.

    And we know what will happen next. After the exhaustion gap comes at most 1 or 2 days of higher prices and then back down, probably as a flash crash, just to bounce right back up.

    Rinse and Repeat.

  108. Allenupl

    Gold Lion or others,
    Do you subscribe to the Gene Armstrong’s Got Gold Report subscription service? If so, have you found it worthwhile.

    I have read his material before but he has some small miners as paid advertisers on his site and for me that has been a big red warning flag. Any feedback or other suggestions appreciated. Thanks.

  109. Aaron

    Good times! Silver taking out 40 would bring in lots of money! There might be a small pause right before 1600 on gold, yet I’m unsure of how much and how long a pullback we can have. Not worth trading in my opinion…maybe use the pullback to add

  110. T.J. Rand

    james r –

    Looked at the weekly chart and, to my mind, Gold does not look today much like in 2008. The order of magnitude is much smaller…

    On the daily chart, the last 8 days look parabolic, I’ll grant you, but corrections, however likely, are difficult to time.

    Full disclosure- I’m learning my lesson about being cute too :). I sold a few options yesterday thinking it looked like a reversal candle, and am now going to have to chase to re-add

  111. Gold Lion

    Allenupl,
    I only signed up for a free email update last night so I can’t say if its worth while or not. The info on the site seem pretty interesting though.

  112. Gary

    For the average investor 75% concentrated in one sector is more than enough risk. The model portfolio will never go above 75%.

    If you want more risk in your own portfolio then adjust your position sizes accordingly.

  113. Cory

    David & Courtney,

    You need a margin account. Not for leverage, but so you don’t have to wait three business days for your trades to settle back into cash. Your full cash trading capital is available right when you sell. It is on that next trade that you would have to hold until the previous one settled or you might get margin called depending on the margin requirements of the instrument you are trading.

  114. Avann

    I subscribe to Gene Armstrong.
    His weekly letter is very thorough.
    He goes through the cot report very thoroughly.
    As far as the miners that advertise on his site … I have not really noticed any prejudicial commentary based on this.
    He does not fill my inbox with SPAM and any “vulture bargains” that he recommends come with some good analysis.

  115. Farm Girl

    From today’s Growth Stock Wire http://www.growthstockwire.com/

    It’s Not Too Late to Get Into Gold Stocks
    By Jeff Clark
    Thursday, July 14, 2011
    “It was the most expensive vacation ever,” my friend Sean confessed to me on the telephone last night. “Not only did we go to Italy and pay $1.45 for a euro, but I was out of the country when you said to buy gold stocks two weeks ago. Now what am I supposed to do?”

    It has been a great two weeks for gold bugs. The Market Vectors Gold Miners Index (GDX) is up 15% since the bullish percent index for the sector triggered a “buy signal.” Many individual stocks are up as much as 30%. And if you traded call options on the sector, you could be looking at triple-digit gains.

    Like I said, it has been a great two weeks.

    But what if you missed the boat? What if you were out of the country, or just caught up doing other things? What do you do now if you missed the gold stock rally?

    First of all, understand that gold stocks ARE going to go higher. Gold’s bullish percent index (BPGDM) has barely budged off the bottom… And there is plenty of room left for it to run. Take a look…

    (see chart on website)

    The index closed yesterday at 33, and it won’t get overbought until it rallies above 80. Despite the big rally we’ve already seen, there are even bigger gains ahead.

    Nothing moves in a straight line, however. Gold stocks are notoriously volatile. Big rallies one day are often followed by big drops the next. Chasing the stocks higher after a big move is rarely a good idea.

    Rather, let’s use the action last year – after the BPGDM buy signal in February 2010 – as a guide…

    (see chart on website)

    As you can tell from the chart, the buy signal in February 2010 sparked an immediate, nearly vertical rally in the gold stocks. GDX popped 12% higher and left many traders wondering if they had missed the boat.

    Gold stocks then pulled back and gave up roughly half their gains. Anyone who missed the first move could have hopped aboard the trade at that point and earned 20% over the next two months.

    We’re probably headed for something similar this time around. GDX is up about 13% since the buy signal two weeks ago. It has been an immediate, nearly vertical move. Now, the sector is due for a brief pullback. A 50% retracement of the gains would put GDX at about $56 per share.

    That looks like a good spot to start buying if you didn’t get in earlier.

    Best regards and good trading,

    Jeff Clark

  116. Allenupl

    Thanks Gold Lion and Avann re: Arensberg’s (not Armstrong! – my mistake) Got Gold Report.

    While on the subject, does anyone else recommend other precious metals advisory services that would complement Gary’s? There are a ton of them out there but separating the wheat from the chaffe is tough from the outside. Thanks.

  117. funmike

    GLD is not as volatile so my plan is to hold it through any drawdown unless Gary advises otherwise. I am looking to add if an opportunity arises.

  118. Gary

    People how many times are you going to make the same mistake.

    Those that held old turkey during the fall run so vastly outperformed those that tried to trade that they weren’t even in the same ballpark.

    Now here you are doing it again.

  119. Gary

    I’m not sure why you think trying to get you to correct a mistake that you keep making over and over is overconfident.

    Yes gold is stretched. Yes it is going to have a short-term correction at some point.

    No way you’re going to be able to catch the bottom of that correction. You will wait hoping for more, gold will reverse and you will end up buying higher.

    I’ve seen it happen 1000 times.

  120. funmike

    I wasn’t here last fall but this spring I held old turkey and lost 50% of my profit. I am looking for ways to avoid that at this point.

  121. Gary

    The only reason you lost in the spring is because you were late to the trade. Those of us that entered at the intermediate bottom were still up well north of 100 percent even though we missed the exact top and silver.

  122. Gary

    fun,
    You’re kidding yourself if you think your emotions are going to let you do that. If gold continues to run like it’s doing this morning you will eventually panic back in, usually at a short term top and will have missed part of the move.

    Then you will have to decide whether or not you want to hold through the draw down or sell for a loss. If you sell for a loss that is how people lose money in a bull market. They buy high and sell low.

  123. funmike

    I am still in on this trade. The only thing I sold was nugt. It is volatile, has low volume and we are stretched. If I miss out a little on that one my core position is still intact.

  124. Elaine

    “If you sell for a loss that is how people lose money in a bull market. They buy high and sell low.”

    LOL, that is how people lose money in ANY market.

    😉

  125. JEFFtheFLEA

    high 5
    my mom bought agq on that run at 170 and sold out early when we were looking for a “3 to 6” dollar corection and she made 70%. she was going to buy back in on the minimum 3 dollar pullback and it never pulled back that much.
    that was the most she made in the market money wise and percentage wise. check your math

  126. Alex in Montana

    Natanarchist,

    Got some animal pics from our trip to Banff. What’s your email address? Mine is in my blog profile. Will send.

    Glad you had good time there. My wife would move there in a heartbeat. Me too.

    Alex

  127. Razvan

    move is running out of steam. this is the 3rd day outside the daily bollinger band which means sharp pullback coming

  128. funmike

    Gary, I do appreciate your watchdog attitude and teacher’s heart. It forces us to understand why we are doing what we are doing. You are right about emotions. They are a powerful force that are hard to defy.

  129. Veronica

    To all newer traders,please listen to Gary’s advice and HOLD right now and add if we get a sharp dip. I’ve been in gold for longer than Gary has and I’ve got the scars to prove it,LOL, and I’m not even thinking of selling anything.This has the potential for a huge run and must be held patiently.I will not let emotions get the better of me and will get out when my system tells me to as I’m sure Gary’s will too.

  130. Dan

    Protected some profits earlier, am off my margin now and will buy back once we correct/consolidate. Everything is so stretched and 1594 on gold is close enough to 1600 for me!

  131. catbird

    Veronica,

    Wise words. I bought a bit more a second ago and managed to get GLD to dip a whole 15 cents already! Still waiting for a “sharp” pullback to add enter my last big order.

    Has your trading knowledge been self-taught?

  132. JEFFtheFLEA

    gary

    do i have this right? if we want to add we would wait for the tag of the 10 moveing average or the daily cycle. The 10 moving average gives us a number to buy at. the daily cycle is more difficult, that would be just buy into the weakness.

  133. Billy

    I just dabbled a little at these levels as well, as previous pullbacks in this cycle have ended rather quickly. So I guess now the real pullback can begin…….

  134. Veronica

    Catbird, please buy more so it keeps dipping, I need to add more,LOL!I feel there is the potential for a wicked scary down day so be mentally prepared for that.I am pretty much self taught in trading and but have learned a lot from a couple of gurus. The biggest lesson I’ve learned is that I am a very emotional discretionary trader and I need a system with definite buy and sell points that take emotion out of a trade, and has statistics backtested long term that give me the confidence I need to follow it.I will be posting stops as they become relevent.

  135. catbird

    Veronica,

    Yeah, I bought a little more yesterday and today, basically to tell the market: “Go ahead, pull back. Make my day.” LOL

    The weekly 10 DMA on GLD (my vehicle of choice) is currently 148.81…the daily 10 DMA is 149.98.

    We’re so frothy now that either one of those could get tagged on a true pullback. And either level would cause weak hands to flip out.

    The disclaimer those 10 day averages obviously are moving targets. There’s no law that says they can’t be 153/154 respectively on GLD when we get that sharp pullback.

    There’s something to be said for just gritting your teeth and buying the whole damn position in one order when we’re EARLY in a new int. cycle.

  136. Avann

    I know this is not how Gary would have us play this … but … here’s what I do.

    I go in with 50% … when I think a correction is due I sell half (25%) … if I’m wrong I buy that half (25%) back a little higher … if I’m right I buy double (50%) what I sold … rinse and repeat until I run out of money … usually after 3 or 4 repeats I’m all in.
    This plan protected well over 75% of my gains last time.
    So right now I’m 25% (sold half yesterday) and waiting to go to 75% on a pull back or back to 50% if I’m wrong.

  137. Natanarchist

    Hi Alex in Montana:

    Yes we have a bunch of pics. Grizzlies, Big Horns, Wolf, Elk, Moose. My kids gave me an I Pad 2 for fathers day and I used that for taking pics and videos. The picture quality is awesome. Very impressed. Now I have to figure out how use this thing properly.

  138. Cory

    With how many people are waiting for the 10 DMA, I’m going to my full position a day earlier. I could care less about missing 1-2% in the long run, a gap up would be much more devastating.

  139. 86d4life

    This looks Frighteningly like silver last summer; trying to get on, waiting for a pullback that never came. No thank you……

  140. ND

    Sorry for silly question, when ya’ll talk about DMA, are you refering to daily moving och displaced moving?

  141. DG

    I’d like to add my thoughts to Gary’s and Veronica’s. DO NOT SELL. A pullback is irrelevant. The bull is simply not over. If you knew gold was going to $1800 why on earth would you sell here? To save a point? It’s a horrible risk/reward: sacrificing a possibly huge gain to save a few bucks. You’d have to be 95% certain you were right in order to place that trade—and you aren’t. And even if you were right, you’d have to buy back right…which you won’t. DON’T DO IT. Go to the movies. I hope we do dip as I can buy more then.

  142. Michael

    It’s very rare IMO that in modern markets we get breakouts that really breakout without rinsing the stops below the breakout zone and then collecting on board the double-top shorts too. Too much money in the those wiggles for the wiggle-makers.

  143. Cory

    William,

    I’m probably buying the open tomorrow no matter what, especially on a gap down. You don’t have to be correct on the timing now. If you bought at Gary’s call you’re up 5-10% right now and at strong hand status. If you’re chasing I would get 25-50% in at the close today or the open tomorrow, then add 25% per day. You’ll either be averaged down nicely or positive and have a swing low, either way you win. Gary makes his calls early as he should. The risk is lowest at that point because the swing low stop is so close.

  144. Robert

    GDP comes out tomorrow –does anyone know how that may effect the gold/silver price.Would a bad number cause the price to go up or down and a good number ( probably fudged ) what would that do to the price.

  145. Jayhawk

    Anyone remember waiting for silver to tag it’s 10 DMA this spring during the huge run up? Never happened and you were left missing all the fun.

    Last summer’s run didn’t more than a few brief hours of pullbacks to get on the train.

  146. Aaron

    Robert, historically, a good GDP number has caused a gold sell off, and a bad GDP number has caused a gold sell off.

  147. Cory

    Miyagi,

    Looking more and more likely I will buy at the close today. This might be the only entry gift the bull gives us.

  148. JEFFtheFLEA

    arron said
    Robert, historically, a good GDP number has caused a gold sell off, and a bad GDP number has caused a gold sell off.

    maybe that was because it was cycle time and gdp was the trigger for whatever gold needed to do cycle wise at the time.. ? ..

  149. Harry

    We’ve now had three retests of the old all-time high level since the breakout yesterday morning. Given that this is only Day 8 I’m perfectly willing to add here. I’m trading Aug GC contracts but I always keep enough cash to be able to withstand a $50-60 drawdown and still be able to add another contract at that point.

  150. sophia

    Thanks Gary for the last few days…I had forgotten how nice it was to make money.
    Currently visiting family with kids, and paying for my trip thanks to you, I promised myself that we will come and visit you in Vegas when I reach my target, probably 2 years down the road!

  151. Gann360

    1300 is the measurement from the Neckline to the Top of the Head,You take that Distance and subtract it from the Neckline Break Down area,

    You should see it on the Chart.

  152. Jayhawk

    (That’s a joke…But in hindsight, that was toward the end of our intermediate cycle, this is early in a new cycle so taking on risk here is a bit more acceptable. My point is waiting on a MA tag frustrated me big time)

  153. GoldWhisperer

    jay, I am saying the same thing. Only for me the glass is half full. Lightening up in anticipation of a widely anticipated correction was the right move all along.

  154. Jayhawk

    True, I agree that late in an intermediate cycle is the time to be dialing down risk. The past 2 cycles have proven this to be the case. (Moving out of silver, out of leverage, out of miners and into straight up gold was the call). Hopefully, this go around we can nail it. I don’t agree with trading around daily cycles as it’s a pain in the rear and I’ve tried it and been burned.

    Last summer’s gold chart shows the first 2 & 1/2 months you had better been quick on the buy trigger as those dips were intraday and reversed quickly.

    http://screencast.com/t/ojaArqFGU6eh

  155. Veronica

    Pit session ingold ended up for it’s 8th straight day,tieing the all time record going back decades.GC Globex contract up for 9 straight days an all time record.I’m starting to believe gold will never have a down day again:):)

  156. GoldWhisperer

    In real-life noone thinks they are smart enough to figure out the intermediate cycle bottom off of a steep decline. Except idiots that run hedge funds.

  157. Gary

    We don’t have to get the exact bottom all we have to do is get close.

    When gold reversed and closed back above 1500 on the 22nd week of the intermediate cycle, we knew we had to be close.

  158. fubsy_cooter

    For those of you feeling impatient about waiting for a tag of the 10dma to add, here is some perspective. Looking at charts of gold from July 25 -October 27 2010 and Jan 25 to March 10 2011, each of which spiked but in different ways, here is my takeaway.

    The 2010 cycle out of the low had 7 tags of the 10dma. The cycle out of the Jan low in 2011 had none until the daily cycle moved into its low. It did however, have two swing lows on the daily cycle that could have been used to add. Each of these came within pennies of the 10 dma.

    My plan has been to add at the 10dma or thereabouts on a swing low reversal. believe me, this daily cyle will offer an oppty to add without buying into a possible topping pattern. But, like Gary, DG and others have stated, we are early, and any drawdown will be recovered.

    This bull run will end with extreme sentiment/euphoria and all of us wondering whether Gold will go up forever. When you feel that in a parabola, look to exit on a significant spike in price and volume. That is several weeks away yet.

  159. MrMiyagi

    When you read people writing about unstoppable prices going “to da moon” (cough..kitco..cough), that’s the time to get out.

  160. GoldWhisperer

    sev·er·al   /ˈsɛvərəl, ˈsɛvrəl/ [sev-er-uhl, sev-ruhl]
    –adjective
    1. being more than two but fewer than many in number or kind: several ways of doing it.
    2. respective; individual: They went their several ways.

    World English Dictionary
    sever (ˈsɛvə)

    — vb
    1. to put or be put apart; separate
    2. to divide or be divided into parts
    3. ( tr ) to break off or dissolve (a tie, relationship, etc)

    [C14 severen, from Old French severer, from Latin sēparāre to separate ]

    Merriam-Webster Legal Dictionary

    Main Entry: sev·er
    Pronunciation: ‘se-v&r
    Function: transitive verb
    Inflected Forms: sev·ered ; sev·er·ing
    1 : to end (a joint tenancy) by ending one or all of the unities of time, title, possession, or interest (as by conveying one tenant’s interest to another party)
    2 : to separate (as a contract) into different parts (as independent obligations) in order to treat each separately
    3 a : to try (criminal offenses or defendants) separately in order to avoid prejudice b : to split (a criminal trial) into multiple trials in order to avoid prejudice c : to try (civil claims or issues pleaded in the same case) separately — sev·er·ance /’se-vr&ns, -v&-rens/ noun
    3. separate; different: several occasions.

  161. MrMiyagi

    Whoever has GDX AND GDXJ,
    I’m curious as to why the two and not one.
    I know they have different holdings but move mainly in similar patterns.

  162. Gary

    Robert,
    Gold can trade sideways and let the 10 DMA catch up and accomplish the same thing. That may be the most likely scenario since it doesn’t seem to want to dip back below the recent high.

  163. Jayhawk

    Interesting that Benank’s comments about no new stimulus on the table immediately and the 1.5T spending cuts announcement have not shaken gold yet.

  164. Michael

    MrM, I would venture — gold co takeovers have been at an avg 40% premium to market cap over the last 15 years. If you get into the “silly buggers” stealth parabolic C-wave phase, there are more companies in GDXJ that could realize this sort of premium, and a few more that will speculatively earn some takeover premium, than in GDX.

  165. chrisb

    moved out of miners this morning at a profit, and moved into GLD call options, got tired of the miners moving down, when gold is moving up

  166. Ryan

    I have a stupid question. When you say the 10MA, that’s the same as 10SMA? Also I’m assuming 10DMA is the same as the 10SMA? So what’s the difference between the SMA and EMA? Do we just normaly use the SMA?

  167. Felix

    Robert,

    DMA=Daily Moving Avg.
    SMA=Simple Moving Avg.
    EMA=Exponential Moving Avg.

    SMA is standard, EMA will be specified. DMA means “Daily SMA” unless “EMA” is currently being discussed instead.

  168. DP

    Ryan —

    SMA=DMA on daily scale — simple sum of day prices ,divided by number of days

    EMA = Exponential Moving Average, or weighted average, where the prices sum is taken with “weight”, or coefficients

    EMA takes into account the effect of the latest days, so is supposed to be more close to price behavior

  169. TZ(8155)

    DG,

    I’m doing fine.

    The silver trade early in the year worked out very well for me and I took some deserved time off. I also had all kinds of other things piling up. (And clearly the metals were in some kind of correction mode for a while so no loss.)

    I just ducked out for a while and sat in cash until my posts earlier this week.

  170. TZ(8155)

    I’m 4x gold futures from earlier in week and holding. I think gold will not retrace below 1550, but I do think a short pullback of 1-1.5% is likely in the next 1-3 days.

    My stop is in on my initial position so there is little to no loss if taken out. Furthermore I intend to add and go up to 6x-8x if that dip materializes. (The buy/add will, of course, also have a small stop to limit risk.)

    I’m leary to touch silver and as I have said I’m not interested in options, ETFs, or mining stocks at this time. All have negatives over straight gold futures as I see them.

  171. GoldWhisperer

    SMA confirms EMA usually. Sometimes it works the other way around if you even bother with EMA much. DMA would be a SMA on a daily chart as opposed to a WMA which is SMA on weekly chart.

  172. Supermalc

    Fubsy,

    I missed the IT low as I was away on holiday, and weak handed, sold my miners this morning to keep some profits. I want back in but can only see a reversal tomorrow, so will wait for the miners to tick back up. Is this a good plan?

    Thanks

  173. MarkMarin

    EUO had a nice bounce off of the 10 day ma today. Seems like the currency market is expecting a debt limit deal before Moodys can downgrade the US$. Reasonable, close stop below today’s low for those interested.

  174. DP

    Ryan —

    In fact, the problem comes from the mathematical fact that simple N-point moving average has to be back-shifted N/2 points to be the “envelope”, or correct smoothing of the original function.

    The problem is we don’t have N/2 days of the future, that’s why people trying to correct the simple MA using EMA.

    Looking at the traditional N-point SMA you are in fact comparing today’s price with N/2 days ago price average.

    As soon it makes people happy, I can live with that fact.

  175. DG

    TZ: Glad you are o.k. One never knows…Time off after a nice kill is a good thing!

    I hope we get that dip. I have a good slug of DGP but plan to about double it on the first decent down day. Keep us posted as to your read on things.

  176. TZ(8155)

    I will be adding on dips, but my 4x position allows me to sit and not freak out if we keep going up. That just means I’ll be adding higher and later than now

    The current situation reminds me of last fall when I waited for a dip and never got one.

    I think there are MANY people left behind by this sharp surge in metals (almost me as well) and the market will not let them in easily.

  177. Ryan

    DG,
    Please post when you do. I’m in the same boat. I have a nice chunk in but getting impatient and want to add the rest.

  178. TZ(8155)

    I think there is a good chance a quick drop in gold and silver prices will happen overnight (in futures) and recover within hours to the previous higher price by time NY opens.

    The ETF guys and regular traders wont get a deal.

    We’ll see…just something I’m looking out for.

  179. TZ(8155)

    Not necessarily ‘tonight’, but one of these nights soon when volume is lighter. A dip during the day seems too easy based on how many appear to want in.

    I mean, when gary puts a comment in the newsletter to stop bothering him you KNOW the pain of watching this thing rocket away is widespread.

  180. Rob L.

    TZ,

    If you weren’t playing this market with futures, what would you be playing it with?

    Also, are you staying away from silver for the same reasons Gary mentioned?

  181. TZ(8155)

    I’ll make an argument I made last fall again with updated data:

    stockcharts[PUT.DOT.HERE]com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX:CEF&p=W&b=3&g=0&id=p19241407769

    (Note you have to CORRECT THE LINK to use it.)

    This is a chart of GDX (aka mining stocks) against CEF – which is simply 50/50 gold and silver bullion.

    I don’t pay for stockcharts so this chart is only three years. You can see the leading edge of the start of the 2008 crash, but if anybody pays for stockcharts, then make this chart longer than 3 years.

    You will see that stock are not beating ‘straight metal’ and continue to underperform since about 2004 or 2005 (I forgot).

    If this chart changes and the stock CLEARLY start outperforming extensively then I will join in. For now ‘straight metal’ is for me.

  182. LowTax

    >I mean, when gary puts a comment in the newsletter to stop bothering him you KNOW the pain of watching this thing rocket away is widespread

    Good point TZ, I suspect you’re right about this.

  183. Ryan

    traderlady,
    I’m only 65% and still waiting to put the rest to work so hopefully in a couple of months time I can say I boarded early and not chasing. Are you all in and holding strong?

  184. fubsy_cooter

    Robert
    10dma is currently at 149.99. It will go up tomorrow.

    Supermalc,
    I wouldn’t be selling anything right now as you could easily get caught in the left behind mode again. Gary often says just buy a position that you’re comfy holding through a drawdown and build from there. For me though, buying swing low reversals, and ensuing breakouts works well.

    I’m currently at a smaller allocation than the model portfolio.

    22% GDX
    15% GDXJ
    15% DGP

    The DGP is double exposure of course, so I’m close. I feel content with this until a correction ensues. At that point (swing low) I’ll be adding appx
    18% DGP
    7% AGQ

    On a breakout from the swing low, I’ll add appx
    6% GDXJ
    9% GDX

    And then at the DCL I hope to add a bit more to be locked and loaded for a possible parabolic top.

    f

  185. MrMiyagi

    Google posted some good results and the stock is up 10% AH.
    I think SPY/QQQ is looking towards an up day to finish the week and PMs/miners a down day.

    Then again, S&P has not been able to keep a gain the past few days even with Benny whispers of QE3 so, what do I know… something to watch for nonetheless.

  186. Felix

    Mr. M.,

    Benji went back to the Congressional Auction House Party again today and tried to pour water on the fire he lit yesterday, making some headlines to that effect…

  187. MrMiyagi

    Robert,
    I’m saying it is a possibilty because attention is elsewhere and talk of “good earnings season” will be on headlines.
    I think also miners/PM are due for a bit of a pullback or a consolidation (sideways).

    Then again, it might be the other way around; what do you think I’m rooting for?

  188. Felix

    Studying the C-wave chart in “Terminology” for some bearings again, would it be right to see us at approximately the end of December 2008, at the first quick pop after the last daily cycle low before the C-wave parabolic top?

  189. fubsy_cooter

    Felix,
    The pop in Dec 2008 was an A-Wave as it followed a massive D-Wave correction. Presumably, by my understanding of Gary’s count, we have not yet completed the C-Wave that began in April 09. Although i question whether we had a C-Wave complete in Dec 09, and this C-Wave began in late July 2010.

    Hopefully Gary will comment on this.
    f

  190. Felix

    Yes, FC I’m an idiot, I was looking at 12/07 – so you agree, it does look like right where we are, doesn’t it?

  191. Poly

    I agree with Fubsy.

    March 31st 2006 is also a good comparison IMO. Both the 06 and 08 C-wave tops have very similar characteristics to what we are experiencing.

  192. Felix

    Poly – yes, that was the time period I was looking at, probably suffered a TIA affecting my left hemisphere date-recognition centers – looks pretty hopeful, doesn’t it

  193. fubsy_cooter

    For comparisons sake, during that first daily cycle from Dec 07 to late Jan which was quite vertical on the long term chart, we touched the 10 dma moving into the daily cycle low on day 20. However, there were two swing low reversals during the daily cycle which provided low risk entries.

    During the second daily cycle moving toward the C-Wave peak, Gold touched the 10dma four times, and did not violate a swing low reversal pivot until it began its move down into the d-wave.
    f

  194. fubsy_cooter

    So, rather than looking for a touch of the 10dma, one might buy swing low reversals on the daily and enuing breakouts. Sorry, I’m like broken record. or a preacher with a swing low sermon to deliver.

    Your mama may have warned you though..beware of Jewish preachers. ; )

  195. Felix

    FB, it was your comments to that effect made me go look at it ultimately. Everyone must have been waiting for the “pullback” that never came then also.

  196. Poly

    or one might buy and hold.

    That first cycle in late 2007 would have you miss the entire daily cycle $100 move (huge when gold was $800) and also get you in to see a $30 draw-down into the cycle low.

    The 2006 C wave top had 4 very faint touches of the 10 day the entire final 30% run to the top.

    If this is a blowoff, you don’t want to be cute. We could be $1,900 by Nov.

  197. Gary

    The dollar candlestick charts on Stockcharts have a lot of discrepancies.

    I’ll stick with think or swim charts for now.

    By the way the D wave in 08 was a very extended the way because it was also an eight year cycle low. We saw an intermediate degree bottom violated during this period.

    The move from $680 back to $1000 was the A-wave advance. The move down from $1000-$860 was B-wave decline. We have been in a very extended C-wave ever since. We are still looking for the familiar parabolic blowoff top.

    The current intermediate cycle is setting up to provide that.

  198. TheBookGuy

    TZ,

    Are you the guy who started out with a modest account and grew it to over $1 mil with Gary in a few short years?

    If so, can you share your story again?

  199. Billy

    Gary are you in Boston? I just saw a guy that looked so much like you it took a triple-take to convince me not to run over to him and give him a big ‘ole bear hug.

  200. Billy

    I also remember someone talking about a London get together at the end of the month. I am in London all of next week, with one day in Guernsey in the middle of the week. Shoot me an email if anyone wants to grab a drink or dinner Tuesday or Thursday night.

    [email protected]

  201. Billy

    Give Buffett a high five for me. Speaking of Warren Buffet I have a great picture of a buddy of mine doing a karate kid crane kick with Warren Buffet. That kid got famous at MIT because of that one photo.

  202. fubsy_cooter

    To be clear. I don’t think one should wait for a touch of the 10dma. But rather a swing low reversal which only requires a minimal correction.
    This would have positioned one well in each of the c-waves past.
    And if you don’t have a core, get one that you’re comfy with in a drawdown as per Gary’s recommendation.
    f

  203. TZ(8155)

    >Are you the guy who started out with a modest account and grew it to over $1 mil with Gary in a few short years?

    Sounds nice, but isn’t me. And I’ve only been reading gary since late fall.

  204. JEFFtheFLEA

    I have one put under each contract. I feel very safe and I am protected if gold goes to 200. Just had to give up 38 on the move. Also I will get some of it back

  205. Cory

    I told Warren I was buying gold in 2009 when I had a conversation with him. He laughed at me to my face. Great guy though, would love to spend a week at Berkshire.

  206. Billy

    Cory, luckily it was Buffett and you just got laughed at. Charlie Munger would have bent you over his knee and whipped you with his belt like you were his naughty little grandson.

  207. TZ(8155)

    RAZ,

    I think Interactive Brokers is the way to go although the Think or Swim chart platform seems pretty good (IB’s charts and stuff are years behind, but they are there for speed,cost, and flexibility)

  208. Broken Parabola

    ROTLFLMAO!

    Yea, now Rob, recall I reside in Zimbabwe. (Not the poor part of town, but the higher end where 1 Quadrillion is needed to buy a nice card box condo.)

  209. Dan

    Well if all this recession ends up unfolding, I sure hope Mr. B starts QE3 or we get more federal stimulus soon otherwise the markets will sniff out deflation real quick.

  210. GoldWhisperer

    I heard Ben on the radio this morning saying that gdp would pick up in the second half and end at almost 3% for the year, prices would moderate, and gdp next year would be over 3%.

  211. Wav_ridah

    WW,
    bought the day after Gary’s buy and sold today. Still holding DGP, NUGT, and GDXJ. The bull will correct timing mistakes, just not always on options. I plan on trading GLD calls and will rebuy on swing low.

  212. Chris

    I don’t know how many people here actually use Elliot wave, but the gold count is really not looking all that bullish to me. I value Gary’s calls, but this looks as if it could be a false breakout which could top out fairly soon in a EW B wave.
    Not saying anyone should get out, but have your stops in play just in case. A break down below the previous 52 week high would be a warning signal.

  213. Gary

    Most breakouts fail.

    Many technicians get whipsawed out of winning positions by placing stops at the breakout.

    Like I always say EW is the single best tool ever invented to predict the past. Other than that it’s completely worthless.

  214. Wav_ridah

    WW,
    I don’t want to get too cute so I’m looking at the 140 to 145 range. I may go ATM with around 2% of port. I think a pullback will find strong support between 151.5 and 153.5 on GLD (1575 and 1550 on gold). Although there are quite a few gaps to fill. We’ll watch and see but I’ll post when I do buy.

  215. Chris

    Yes but the Past can predict the future based on probabilities. If you deny using past evidence to predict future results, then you are lying to yourself. That’s all ANYONE ever does in the stock market. EW is about probabilistic outcomes based on previous wave counts, I find it quite useful to assess risks of various possible outcomes.

  216. Chris

    William, that’s a good point. Placing stops near the breakout point I guess would be a risky strategy based on that. But I still think that caution could be warranted, because the corrective count just doesn’t look like it’s complete to me.

  217. William Wallace

    Chris,

    The corrective count not looking right is what caused many not to pull the trigger when Gary gave the signal, many people, myself included waited until a break of 1550 because of that, but look at where we are now.

  218. Wav_ridah

    Fubsy,
    We were headed back from Eureka when Gary gave the buy. I was holding some SLV and GLD puts. I almost got sick. A great call by Gary, again.

  219. Gary

    What I mean is that there is no time factor in Elliott wave. The only way to determine a wave count is after it has already happened. Which is why I say it’s the best tool ever invented to predict the past.

    Cycle analysis has standard timing band’s where one can expect a high probability of a trough forming.

    This is how I was able to get very close to the bottom of the last three intermediate cycles.

    With Elliott wave one would have no idea in real time where they were at in the count because there is no time factor.

  220. Chris

    William, I did follow Gary’s call and pulled the trigger and I am glad I did. That doesn’t really mean caution should not be warranted though.

  221. Gary

    We have our stops at the last cycle bottom. Plus I think I would recognize if something was wrong long before those where hit.

    I think at this point one will probably be better off not over analyzing and just get on the Old Turkey band wagon.

  222. Chris

    Gary, Most good “ellioticians” use a time factor in the wave timings. There are guidelines in EW Theory on timing and I think it’s valuable to use them. They aren’t RULES though, they are only guidelines, and they are allowed to be broken.
    I don’t believe there is only 1 good trading system though. You have obviously demonstrated that your cycle analysis is good, but I also think EW is not something to be completely ignored. It’s another data point.

  223. Harry

    All of this EW talk makes me think this is all the corrective action we’re going to get. Tomorrow will only be Day 9, so it sounds about right for half way through the daily cycle.

    Barkeep! Serve me up another GC contract here at 1583. I have plenty of buffer to take a drawdown and frankly it’d be a gift if I get to add another further down. I’ve learned Old Turkey’s lesson the hard way, but this time I’m just going to turn off my computer and walk around with a monocle and fake British accent for a few months.

  224. Harry

    William, if I was still in Shanghai I would but I’m in Seattle on business and I’ve got to sleep at some point, so I think I’ll just put in a limit order for 1580 or so and forget about it.

  225. fubsy_cooter

    Wav-ridah

    Yes, I also closed my SLV puts. Ran home before a trip to the river for the afternoon. If i knew you were here I could have shown you some of our local breaks. Next time.

  226. Wav_ridah

    Fubsy,
    We had a day to drive up and down the coast and we found a nice break in Trinidad. No crowd there only TWO GUYS! They looked like they where having the time of their lives. My boys and I just watched. So peaceful.

  227. fubsy_cooter

    WR
    Yeah, there are a lot of breaks like that. In Trinidad alone..state, college cove, Camel Rock, and just North the Lagoons can be awesome, Patrick’s Point is an epic big wave left, Aggot Beach thrusts, etc…South Beach in Crescent City has a beautiful long board wave. Rhyn Noll’s home break. Its a sweet unsung coastline.

  228. Wav_ridah

    Ahh…the Noll family. Must be one of Greg Noll’s boys, one the the original big wave surfers. I haven’t been that far north yet but I may have to make the trip.

  229. Gary

    William,
    The only stop that has any meaning at all is the last daily cycle low. If one just randomly raises stops you risk getting whipsawed out of a winning position.

  230. Gary

    The cause of the flash crash was the persistent an extended rally that preceded it.

    Traders became overconfident and quit buying downside put protection.

    Then when the correction started everybody tried to hit the exit at the same time.

    Those conditions obviously don’t exist at this time. This bear market will probably just grind lower very similar to the 2000 to 2002 bear market.

  231. TommyD

    That flash crash nearly killed me. My blood pressure was 210 over 110 and I had to go to the doctor. I take pills now but that day was a game-changer for me. You never see a Brinks armored truck in a funeral procession do you???

    Gary, the best of luck to you in Omaha and I hope your team performs as individually they each envisioned. Dream it, Do it!

    Tom

  232. Duuuuuude

    Today will be the 10th day of the gold cycle? With an average duration of 20-28 days, and with the nature of the bull being right translated, then shouldn’t we expect the odds are in our favor for one more week to the upside? (new to cycles, and it is just starting to click I think)

  233. ...at ease

    Traderlady and Ryan,
    Yes, it sure was nice getting in at the bottom on this cycle. GREAT profits on this initial entry and we still have further to go! 🙂 I was just waiting for Gary to say, get in, since we missed the last initial entry point back in the winter.

    I am half way to getting that winter retirement home in FL for hubby in my husbands IRA and have only been trading with Gary since February. (And in my own retirement account, I have now fully recovered and surpassed the nasty 2008 drop my own account took).

    So for those of you who hesitated, to enter on Gary’s call on the cycle bottom; next time Gary says get in, don’t hesitate, don’t wait, don’t question, don’t think… JUST GET IN! His cycle bottom calls are right on!

    Thank you Gary for the great call!

  234. torero91

    Gary, “this bear market” is currently 4.5% off the May highs. The Midcaps, Nasdaq and Transports hit new bull market highs last week. The bears still have not reached the 10% correction with sentiment recently at negative extremes. That’s a huge warning! The June lows should be well defended from this point on. I wish you would refrain from using the term bear market until there is a confirmed bear market. Nice call on gold, however. Again, that’s why I subscribe. 🙂

  235. Felix

    torero

    is there not a distinction between “secular bear” and “cyclical bear” to be taken into account here?

  236. torero91

    Felix, if you pull up a chart of IJH (Midcap 400) or the DOW Transports, all-time highs were set last week. That is not a secular bear market.

  237. Gary

    Torreo,
    You can wait for complete confirmation if you want. I’m not shorting the market. My call for the next leg down is just to get people out of the general stock market.

    I called the last bear market three weeks after it began. At the time there was no confirmation then either but the same conditions were in play. Namely volatile swings and a test of a prior intermediate cycle low.

    I also noticed the slow down in the economy, the same as is happening now.

  238. Gary

    Torreo,
    In inflation adjusted terms all markets are in a secular bear market. Back in the 70’s select indexes managed to make big all time highs (small caps) but it was still clearly a secular bear market from 66 to 82.

    A secular bear is a regression in valuation from extreme overvaluation back to extreme undervaluation. That has clearly been in progress since March of 2000.

    Once valuations reach ridiculous levels of undervaluation then the secular bear will be done.

  239. sophia

    Just bought a small call august on Cac40, strike 3900.
    If stress tests not as bad as expected, we could get a small rebound

  240. Poly

    GDXJ 9and GLD) volume is extremely impressive.

    On Wed, GDXJ has its 3rd highest volume day ever, only the final two spike and drop days of the Nov 2010 peak had slightly higher volume.

    Considering this 3rd highest day occurred in the middle of the first daily cycle, I believe this is foretelling of some massive gains in these miners towards the end of the IT cycle, if of course gold moves as we expect.

  241. DP

    TommyD —

    “You never see a Brinks armored truck in a funeral procession do you???”

    ROFLMAO, re-sent all my friends.

  242. Billy

    Added a little more gold at the open. I can’t make myself get too aggressive without some kind of meaningful pullback. If we just tread water and consolidate between 1580 and 1590, I will continue to add small chunks to my ATM GLD calls.

  243. Poly

    Not really, I’m about 25% miners 75% gold. Plus the miners are way undervalued relative to gold, they will get into gear.

  244. Michael

    The thieving gold goblins like to raid the fridge around midnight (Easter silver slaughter; July 4 gold spinning bottom) or when there’s general market weakness.

    If the raid comes, with stops at 1570s, old 1560 highs may be the target but more likely point of control areas and higher volume zones at 1545-1552. As TZ stated though, can happen outside of US market hours so futures improves the reasonably low chance of catching it.

  245. Cory

    If you look at the end of 07 thru first quarter 08, the market had already topped and GDX still went up 30% before everything succumbed to the 8 year cycle low.

  246. William Wallace

    Can someone please explain to me why one should even invest in miners, instead of just investing in the metal, If gold does not go up, neither will the miners?

  247. William Wallace

    Billy,

    What if we dont get a significant pullback, and we dont consolidate between 1580-90, but just break higher?

    Would it not be better to add here and hold through a drawdown.

  248. Rob L.

    William,

    Miners are significantly undervalued in relation to the metal – they will eventually play catch-up. We are hoping that they will do so during this IT cycle.

  249. 86d4life

    Brother, I picked up some GDX calls yesterday and they`re smokin`, but the miners have let a lot of people down before and I figure why take the chance. I might add a few more GDX calls and maybe add some NUGT, you know, just in case, but for the most part, straight metal.

  250. DP

    Will —

    I see nothing, since am not subscribed to Level II.

    The stop sell orders could give us idea where we can go in case Big Bro will roll the stops.

  251. Gary

    MW,
    In case you haven’t noticed the market has been falling while the miners have been rising.

    The miners are following gold.

  252. Cory

    William,

    At some point, usually at the end of a bull cycle, I think the junior miners will be the target of extreme buyout frenzy. We’re not there yet, but the market will start to price it in once the large caps struggle for growth to keep up with demand. Once gold/silver get to the point where the cost of exploration, setup, infrastructure, etc become negligible because the metal is so valuable, the large caps will have to buy out the small guys, and everybody will be starting a mining company to hit it big. Think dot com mania on juniors. I think it will happen in the final phase from 2013-15, not now. The three I’s of investing:

    Innovator > Imitator > Idiot

    You can apply it to any mania/bull in history.

  253. torero91

    Gary,
    From a trader’s perspective, I don’t find inflation-adjusted terms relevant to entering or exiting a trade. Price is what pays (even if that price buys less and less). Timing to a trader is key and prevents one from taking significant drawdowns. At this time, the market is not confirming we are or about to enter a bear market. So to the unbiased trader, all the beartalk is just noise and IMO adds nothing productive to making profitable trades. Bull markets top with euphoric sentiment and a significant increase in selling pressure at the minimum. Once again, we had new record lows in selling pressure a few weeks ago and my gardener is still not talking about how wonderful the stock market is doing. I’m glad you are no longer recommending shorting this market. Based on all the current information to which I have access, the bears should once again get taken to the slaughter soon. Sorry if that disagrees with the fundamentals, but we all know smart money does not trade with the fundamentals. Have a safe trip to Omaha!

  254. William Wallace

    Cory,

    Yes thats basically how it goes, im a subscriber to John Doody’s Gold Stock Analyst Top 10 Report, that is how he became a millionaire.

    BTW, If anyone wants to know the Top 10 just let me know.

  255. Veronica

    Torero, why trade the S&P when it is flat for 10 straight years? If you’re a really good trader and have made $, just imagine how much you could have made trading a real bull market like PM’s.

  256. Dave

    Considering gary’s possibility that gold may consolidate and let the dma catch up rather than drop to the average, is now as good a time as any to fill up remaining positions or are people still waiting for some sort of down day first?

  257. MarkMarin

    I got lucky and added another gold futures contract overnight on a $1,578 buy stop…..woke up to the good news. If we get a pullback to the 10 day ma, I’ll add more. Mostly in gold futures, DGP, NUGT, GDX, GDXJ and a few individual miners, along with 20% cash.

  258. William Wallace

    DAVE,

    Gary also mentioned that he does not expect a pull below the 1578 previous high, that seems to be the case right now as futures bounced overnight at 1576, we may see a pullback to the 1580 level today and then move higher before consolidating or getting another pullback, if thats the case you will be getting in at a higher number than today most likely. But who knows, I added today at the 1583 level.

  259. Poly

    It’s only going to take one high profile (maybe hostile) takeover of a solid junior miner (at crazy premiums) to send this sector roaring.
    Happens every-time, the majors know how under valued they are as gold keeps rising, the most logical play will be buyouts and M&A for the smaller boys.

  260. MW

    Gary,

    Yeah i have noticed, but i have also noticed that the market hasnt really started its collapse yet.

  261. William Wallace

    This is crazy…my 18 month old boy has my 8 year old son screaming for mercy! He is sitting on his head trying to rip his hair out. What in the world is going on, who taught this kid to be so vicious…I guess he takes after my wife because im a peaceful fella…lol

  262. torero91

    Veronica,
    The S&P 500 has definitely not been a buy and hold market over the last decade, but a “trader” is not the same as an “investor.” I in no way meant to imply I was only a S&P futures trader, I trade the metals and other commodities too. As Gary has explained, nobody has to trade the general stock market. However, Gary chooses to discuss his stock market views in his newsletter and on his blog. I don’t mean to distract from the primary discussion on metals here, but I have many issues with his “bear market” perspective and simply choose to engage in a mostly polite discussion on why he may be wrong. In his own words, Gary has admitted that it has been difficult to trade the stock market and thus he mostly avoids it. We are all here to learn, and I assume even Gary is still learning. Or at least I hope so. 🙂

  263. Veronica

    Torero, glad to see that you have recognized the bull market in commodities. It stares so many in the face and they don’t see it…

  264. 86d4life

    W2,
    Not yet, but I going to something here real soon, one way or the other. I mean, was yesterday our pullback? This seems just like last year when we went through this same thing, the bull is growing in speed and intensity.

  265. 86d4life

    Well don`t follow me!!! There`s no point both of us going off a cliff!! 🙂 If I start buying, then you KNOW it`s pullback time.

  266. T.J. Rand

    Took a look at the last 5 Intermediate cycle lows…

    Findings:
    – GDXJ always outperformed GDX and sometimes by a wide margin
    – GDX and GDXJ always outperform straight gold (with the exception of the last cycle where GDX was a tad under Gold.)
    – GDX and GDXJ outperformed Silver in the first three cycles. In the 4th cycle, GDXJ matched Silver while GDX underperformed. And in the most recent cycle, Silver blew everything else away

    Takeaways: buy Gold/leveraged Gold, GDXJ, and make your own call on Silver.

    Of course theis all depends on the IC Low being in (Highly probable) and assets performing as they have in the past (highly likely).

    I’m personally in DGP, GDXJ and GDX.

  267. William Wallace

    86,

    Bro your crazy, as soon as I pull the trigger we are tanking…I move markets immediately!!! LOL
    We tank, we tank together bro, no big deal, send me a disclaimer by email…lol

  268. David

    Does anybody have any idea what’s slamming XG the past two days?

    I don’t own it right now but am tempted to get back in.

  269. 86d4life

    W2,
    Serious, you don`t want to rely on what I`m doing. I have a lot more learning ahead of me than behind me. If you need a bear guide, I can handle that, but there are alot better people here than me to get advice from.

    As far as `touched` goes, I guess some things just transcend all barriers, yeah? Lol….

  270. MrMiyagi

    David,
    I’m too lazy to post imbedded links today so here:
    VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA–(Marketwire – 07/12/11) – Extorre Gold Mines Limited (TSX:XG – News) (AMEX:XG – News) (Frankfurt:E1R – News) (“Extorre” or the “Company”) is pleased to announce that it has closed the bought deal private placement financing announced June 20, 2011 (the “Offering”). The Company has issued 2,400,000 common shares (the “Shares”) at a price of $10.50 per Share for gross proceeds of $25,200,000.

    The Offering was conducted through a syndicate of underwriters (the “Underwriters”). The Underwriters received a cash commission of 6% of the gross proceeds raised through the Offering and warrants (“Broker Warrants”) equal to 5% of the Shares issued through the Offering. Each Broker Warrant entitles the holder to acquire one common share of the Company at an exercise price of $11.15 for a period of 12 months from closing.

    My parents fell for the sham like most everyone; escendant from monkey see, descendant from monkey do..

  271. Billy

    William,

    I have a significant position in options and I always sit on some cash. I’m currently 70% invested, and my options are Aug expiration. At this point I am very cautious of adding further as I don’t really want to weather a draw down with new positions. I am just adding small bits here and there as gold seems to be consolidating instead of dropping. If we get any kind of meaningful correction I will consider adding heavier b/c once that drop is behind us then it is much lower risk with the remaining cash that I have available.

  272. William Wallace

    Billy,

    Thanks…what strike aug calls will you add?

    86,

    Your going to have to make me go at it alone…alright you asked for it bro, I will let you know what happens….lol

  273. 86d4life

    Billy,
    Thanks for getting him off my ass. This is how it`s been since we met, just being chased around by a little William……….

    But seriously, thanks for the advice. Now I have to go get W2 a sucker and a hanky………

  274. William Wallace

    This is funny…im sitting here staring at GLD options on the ThinkorSwim platform and I have no clue what im looking at!!

    Maybe someone can clarify this for me if they feel like it… Why are some Aug GLD calls in the green and some in the red, when gold is up shouldnt everything below and at strike be up?

  275. 86d4life

    We need Poly and Bob LH, front and center. Maybe Mr M can help if he hasn`t had a change of heart and is trying to make a baby…….

  276. MrMiyagi

    William,
    It depends when the last trade was on a particular option.
    More accurate is the price difference from option level to level.

  277. David

    Miyagi,

    That would normally explain it, except XG didn’t start dropping until yesterday — two days after the financing was announced.

    Perhaps there’s some component of the deal that emerged after the fact.

    At any rate, if past precedent is any indicator (GPL comes to mind), XG should struggle for a few weeks.

  278. MrMiyagi

    David, that’s all that I see.
    86, yes, strike price to strike price.
    WW, can’t stand kids.. GLD options, technically October 141 but I think in this case October 150-151 can be interesting at half or 3/4 postition.

  279. MrMiyagi

    October 151 is in the money enough and the timeframe is good in case the consolidation period goes longer. I don’t think 154 is bad, just not for me.
    If I were to buy, I’d go with 151 or deeper and if it goes lower in the next few days (IF..) then top it off.

    I’m just wondering here if gold is just going to consolidate and go higher come Monday.

  280. 86d4life

    Mr M,
    Little Willys next question is don`t prices usually drop on expiration day? He really apreciates and needs your help……..

  281. Greggy_M

    Gary or anyone,

    I’m beginning to wonder if the stock market topped already and gold will rally for another 4 months similar
    to 2007. If that’s the case then the general stock market should head lower from here on and gold will top sometime around November. Any thoughts?

  282. MrMiyagi

    WW,
    October 174 calls are up from the last time they traded price.
    I only see 1 trade today and lots of bid/ask. So most likely, before today the last trade was a few days ago and now the price has caught up.

  283. William Wallace

    86,

    Your treating me like a $2 hooker today…not telling me what GLD call to buy earlier, now gold is pushing higher and im left naked in the curb. Darn you! Im a gold digger not a $2 hooker!!

  284. Felix

    Wow, gotta say, I wish I were in AGQ… I think I made a mistake there. Don’t have to marry the trade. Too late?

  285. MrMiyagi

    Willy,
    Maybe, the person who sold it might have bought it at 10 cents. Probably not higher because GLD’s price is at an all time high.
    The person who bought it needs to sell it at more than 1.16, way more considering it is 1 contract, to make money.
    My guess is someone is trying to buy a bunch bought can’t get their price filled.

  286. Felix

    “Yes, grasshopper: both too late and too early! for when emotion overruns reason it is too early; and when SLV approach $40, it is far, far too late, and time to take shelter from the gathering storm”

  287. MrMiyagi

    WW,
    That page is from my RBC account.
    The free services (Yahoo, NASDAQ, what have you) that I know of will show bid/ask prices and volume but not the bid/ask volume.

    What about your broker page?

  288. MrMiyagi

    WW,
    In terms of pure percentage gain, a “lottery” play of OTM call will of course return you more for your investment.
    But time it or price it wrong and you have very little gain or mainly loss to show for.

  289. MrMiyagi

    Willy,
    Think hard but if you want to try it, August 165 call if you think gold will be 1700$ by mid-August, August 160 call if you think gold will be 1650$ by mid August.

    The 160 call is not a true lottery play because it is pricy but you can pick up the 165 calls for less than 60 cents.
    The real lottery plays were on the SLV side in May.

    I dam not encouraging you at all, I’d rather you don’t! But, if you have 1200$ that you don’t care losing, you can pick up 20 165 calls and at 1700$ they would be worth around 5$. Not going to make you rich.

  290. William Wallace

    Everyone,

    You know something…I really want to express my gratitude for all your help. I said it before and I will say it again, Gary, this blog and its members are amazing.

    Thanks everyone!

  291. Billy

    William, Im taking more risk than Miyagi. I’m playing the August calls now and intend to roll them to a later date closer to the top of this daily cycle. I have GLD options ranging from $150 to $154. I am currently adding to the $154 calls. I usually buy calls with a delta between 60 and 70 but went crazy with the $154’s yesterday and today (delta in the 50’s, look out). I also have some GDX and some SLV options all expiring in Aug. I already sold half of my SLV though at 100% return so playing with house money on silver at this point. Given the current setup $154 was as much risk as I was willing to take. At the DCL I will prob reach for some OTM lottery plays just for kicks. Miyagi’s options are great if you want to buy options that won’t have significant volatity that you can hold old turkey through this entire IC. I don’t want to pay up for those long dated options. I have confidence that gold is going up and Aug gives more than enough time to capture the meat of the move for this cycle. When we get into the timing band for a top I will start to sell off some options to raise cash for DCL and I will roll the rest to Sept.

  292. William Wallace

    Mr M,

    No worries, im not worried about losing a little to possibly make a decent profit…its just something I figured we would have a little fun with, see how it ends. So thats your best suggestion an Aug 165 call?

  293. MrMiyagi

    Billy,
    It’s all about what risk you are willing to take.

    Willy,
    Take a look at the GDX August 65 call as well, 50 cents, if Gold hits the mark by August then GDX can possibly go through its 52 week high of 64.62$.

  294. Michael

    Hate to butt in when it was gettin interesting with hookers ‘n’ all on a slow Friday … but mathematically the option that gives you the most acceleration and gain – bang for your buck so to speak – is an option with a delta of 0.5, and that is found with at-the-money shorter dated options.

  295. 86d4life

    Mr M, Billy and Michael,
    I`m along with The Breeze(Free Willy)here; Thanks a WHOLE lot for pitching in. A guy(or Gal) can do all the studying possible, but right here, right now is where the rubber hits the road and you guys are like a set of training wheels.

  296. William Wallace

    86,

    Thats what im saying, I can study and read for hours, but this is where like you said the rubber hits the road…I have not studied options yet so im basically still clueless concerning them but

    Billy, Michael, Miyagi, all you guys are amazing to me and I hope to run right beside you all one day

  297. Michael

    William, don’t know your risk tolerance, access to research or diversification, only your sense of humour for now – if you’re after the pure nitrous oxide stocks in this sector – then it’s small caps, or even better options on stocks in emerging markets not on US exchanges – they will run harder. If you have giant ones and want the juice in US options only, then it’s risk reversals where you sell a put and buy a call … although it’s academic which option you buy really if you are calculating your exposure correctly i.e. number of options * delta * underlying share price = $ exposure. The more pertinent question is do you want to be 50% long or 200% long effectively and how often will you manage the position as it gets close to expiry.
    Mr M – my knowledge is mostly practical but delta 0.5 is the sweetest part of the curve, although because of friction costs in rolling up you may go with delta 0.4 or so …

  298. bborden

    I wanted to share a passage from a popular newsletter I received today. I was astounded when I read it. I had to reread it to make sure that I had understood. Bernanke has the printing presses running wide open.

    Here it is:

    “As I said earlier, the M2 money supply has expanded by $165.6 billion during the past two weeks. Let’s put that in perspective. M2 grew by only $283.2 billion during all of 2010 and $282.2 billion during 2009. That means the past two weeks have seen M2 grow by nearly 60 percent of the annual growth in money supply during each of the previous two years. To put it another way, M2 has grown by nearly 30 percent of the entire gain during all of 2009 and 2010 put together.”

  299. MrMiyagi

    GST,
    Believe me, this is nothing compared to March/April and quite conservative compared to other (cough..kitco..cough) forums.

  300. Michael

    And the other issue with options here and now is that big % move markets change your exposure daily dramatically — because of the move higher in golds, anyone that followed Gary in early with call options has probably seen their call option exposure *double* because the delta on the position and the stock moved higher. Now, if you started out 75% long, do you really want to be 150% after 10 days of moving higher? Maybe yes if we’re early in the cycle. Maybe no if you believe in a reversal to the mean. But that’s a question you need to answer with the calculations at hand.

  301. William Wallace

    We are definately going to see some sort of pullback soon, unless this intermediate cycle completely deviates from past performance, like it did by not pulling back to the 150sma for an intermediate bottom.

  302. LowTax

    Bear flag on the 10-yr yield methinks. Also, the attempt at re-capturing the 10-day MA, starting in late June, has failed miserably. As of late June, we also have a 50-day MA cross below the 200-day.

    Couple this with the possible government shut-down: as David Rosernberg notes, all outcomes are eventually deflationary. Even if no agreement is reached, the Constitution and the Fed will prevent the bond market from selling off too much. Bernanke will not allow several years worth of work to be thrown down the drain by a bunch of politicians.

    And most deflationary of all, if the government shut-down occurs, the impact is IMMEDIATELY deflatioinary: billions in spending that simply dries up in matter of days.

    The market is about to get a blackjack to the back of the head. And gold, although it MAY dip temporarily, is still the only place to run.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/rosenberg-debt-ceiling

  303. Michael

    Then I would say – Buy Aug 35 calls NUGT, sell Aug 35 puts NUGT. Trading spreads – massive cost to an option strategy at the end of the day are closer to 5% than 15% on OTM.

  304. William Wallace

    Michael,

    Thats like rocket science to me right now…I dont even know the difference yet between buying a call and selling a put, you are amazing…lol

    So you think that your call is the highest risk biggest reward to play this gold run, better than buying Aug GLD calls alone?

  305. Michael

    Will, NUGT option is a call on a 2x instrument so, in absence of options on DGP, I guess it has to beat GLD options. The real rocket science is the guys who trade options on the 3x ETFs, math boffin stuff there.

  306. Michael

    P.S. Don’t sell puts unless you understand your exposure if stock tanks, funds blow up and people’s lives get changed forever selling puts when the tide goes out. I never suggested it …

  307. Dan

    Anyone else finds golds action kind of intriguing? We just broke out into new highs and it just sits there going sideways. Dont recall breakouts behaving like this in the past.

  308. Dan

    William,

    True, it is summer and a friday but if this just continues going sidways then it can only be viewed as being bullish although I have a suspicion we will get a move on monday, not where which way, but I dont think this “nothingness” will continue.

    Just strange behavior for a breakout IMO.

  309. Michael

    Will, I really don’t know up here – it’s a “hold” probably, have to respect the cycles and the half-cycle, the analogies from Poly et al about previous cycles that looks similar, Gary’s exposure and suggestions, I wouldn’t buy anything stretched on day 10 but this could be a runaway move so you gotta have something in the game but chances high they will try to fill the gap on miners so set your alert, but as I’ve said before if you must get in here then it’s the laggers e.g. CDE missed the early action but has caught right up …

  310. 86d4life

    The idea is with the 52 week high rule, you strap on the sack(buzzard in your case) as in beef up your positions in that particular equity, and plan on selling at the open tue. If things start to go south prior to that you sell at the open mon. The way I use this is it leans heavily for a drop early next week, mon or tue. So I`m saying you may get a better entry on your lottos on mon or tue and I will look to fill out positions.

  311. Billy

    Just to be clear I didn’t say the $154 was a lottery play, that is an ATM option that I am playing now for the rest of this DC. If you really want high risk/high reward (this will probably make Gary’s head explode, and note I am not advocating this or taking this trade) look at the SLV $45 calls, if SLV gets back to the highs of around $48 you will make a killing on these. Perhaps something to consider at the next DCL with a very small portion of capital. I would like to see how silver reacts during this first cycle before I take any real chances on it though.

  312. Dan

    If I had to take a guess….I would say PMs keep drifting higher until we get a resolution with the debt ceiling. Im sure the political games will last right up to the last second and then the PMs will finally start a decent correction on the news.

  313. 86d4life

    W2,
    I don`t want anything to do with buying in more here, (damn gold is maxing out!)but this gives me a good idea that better entrys are ahead.

  314. 86d4life

    W2,
    How often do you check your email? Do you have the kids checking that? Hey, I put a couple briskets on The Pit about 0900. Are you and the little woman and the terriers coming over for BBQ? Did you notice Michael didn`t mention my sense of humor? Now I have to go out by The Pit and pout……..

  315. gold silver troll

    As an FYI,

    I remember poly mentioning this:

    NUGT has no options volume…when you really wanna sell, you wont find any buyers. Gotta be careful.

    best to stick with GLD and/or GDX

  316. William Wallace

    86,

    I check my email every other day usually, unless im busy working on the house like I have been for a couple days now doing electric, I need to check it. Bro I need a new BBQ, I got one of those Tom & Jerry type round black ones, its gotta go. Bro..terriers? Thats like a Montana thing, over here we have pitbulls and bulldogs…lol
    I knew you got upset when Michael didnt mention your sense of humor, maybe he dont like you now because he seen you treating me like a $2 hooker..that was when he weighed in when he heard talk of hookers wasnt it?

  317. William Wallace

    If you take a look at a 5min chart of gold futures gold smashed its head flat right now at the previous highs, seems noone is looking to push it any higher at the moment

  318. 86d4life

    W2,
    Those Terriers are Rat Terriers as in Your little Rat Terriers. But you knew I was in Minnesota, right? I suppose bull dogs and pit bulls would be the thing. Most people can`t handle a real dog like maybe a Chesapeake………

  319. Duuuuuude

    Gold will probably pull back some by the end of July because that would line up in the timing band of a daily cycle. I could see a strong pull back at that time, followed by a powerful rally on August 2 regardless of which way the vote goes.

    If they vote to raise the ceiling, then they are printing money which will send gold surging. If they don’t raise the debt ceiling, then the stock market will collapse, and there will be a large money flow into the PM’s.

  320. William Wallace

    86,

    WOW..whats on your BBQ, looks like two terriers!

    I follow futures through the ThinkorSwim Platform from TD. Bro you need to get this platform.

    Now im starving,…bro I never seen something like that on a BBQ, what are feeding the whole block…Oh I forgot you live in the wilderness where there is no blocks…lol

  321. 86d4life

    I thought you were coming over, so I put on 2! Those are packer briskets. The chunk of log is pecan and the mesquite is underneath that. On The Pit, 20-25 hours is really good and it`s pretty easy too. You can cut that stuff with a loaf of french bread. I`ve had enough for a while Bro. Check your email for crying out loud!!

  322. Sleeper

    Harry,

    “All this talk of gold flattening out and correcting here makes me think we’re about to break higher.”

    Funny, I was just thinking that all this talk of lotto options and the counting of unhatched chickens means we are due for a correction. 😉 Gotta love it!

    Yeah, the sentiment on this blog can move mountains! LOL

  323. Poly

    NUGT is a souped up 2x GDX instrument. GDX has a good range and pool of options, why not play in the GDX pool?

  324. coolkevs

    Demark indicator insight from Kevin Depew @minyanville.com:
    Silver:
    Depew states he sold all of his silver that he bought in 2004, providing him outpeformance vs equities. His take is that the period of outperformance is likely to end this year, but with short-term upside potential with a grand blowoff top, particularly in gold.

    YEARLY: A Sell Setup 9 recorded this year – 1-4 year corrective move lower between 2012-2015
    QUARTERLY: TD Sell Setup 9 recorded this quarter – 1-4 downside from October-September of next year. Bar 11 of a potential TD Sequential 13 SELL that could record in Q1 2012 – 3 years of bad luck when that puppy hits.
    MONTHLY: A TD Sequentail Sell recorded in May – 1 year of bad luck until next June
    So, long term lots of forces pushing down on silver, but doesn’t mean it can’t go up from here in the short-term.
    Above is for silver, gold is similar although I think Depew said a YEARLY sequential SELL will occur this year, meaning 12 years of bad luck. This signal occurred for the SPX in 1999 and we all know how that ended up. But the SPX is emerging from this 12-year period of bad luck this year, hence be prepared for some big equity upside after we get through this recognition phase of the debt crisis.
    Short-term Silver now:
    WEEKLY: A new potential sell setup has begun, but only on bar 2 UP, so at least 7 more weeks. 32.31 should be a support level.
    DAILY: A TD Sell Setup occurred on Tuesday, but as you can see that was a dud.
    Short-term Gold:
    DAILY: Sell Setup 9 occurred today, 1-4 DAY reaction next week. Gold has overshot the Exhaustion target of 1560.62, so that level should be support.
    CRUDE oil – We could see a break of a WEEKLY Propulsion down level with a down open next week – giving a target of $79, so possibly “good news” setting up there.
    Dollar: 72.5 will it happen?? we got so close. If we see a grand blowoff top in the metals, perhaps. So far, Dollar is not showing any upside exhaustion – DAILY working on a Sequential 13 BUY signal, needs a low below 74.902 to record.
    SPX – as a reminder, we had a MONTHLY SELL, affecting the markets from June-September in SPX, NDX, RTY, INDU, DAX, and UKX. DAILY has been working on a 13 Sequential Countdown, but wild swings are making it hard to accomplish. Qualifying a break of 1310 implies more downside, but we shall see what happens.
    Hope this helps!

  325. Poly

    KOOL,

    Has he discussed this “grand blowoff top in the metals”

    I’m strongly leaning towards one occurring here in the next 8-10 weeks. Is he talking final bull market blowoff or a cycle type blowoff?

    Thanks.

  326. Alex in Montana

    cooklevs,

    Kevin Depew – Minyanville

    Been a subscriber for 4 years there. I have never understood the DeMark stuff.

    Do you find it useful?

    A lot of those original Minyan professors: Depew, Toddo, Minyan Peter, Mr. Practical etc. have totally missed the precious metals move. I ignore their precious metals advice but enjoy reading their opinions.

  327. ...at ease

    Received a call from my coin seller today. First, I was told that on Aug 2nd, Ben would announce QE3 plans at his scheduled meeting.

    Second, my seller, was calling to see if I wanted to buy anymore physical gold at this time. I am looking at something other than Swiss Francs and he recommended Australian schillings 1/2 oz coins.

    Does anyone on the blog have any preference or recommendations? I asked him to call back Monday. Thanks if anyone can comment.

  328. 86d4life

    At Ease,
    Check this place out. I think they usually have the best deals. Free shipping and insurance both ways, fast service. Are you back in Va. now?

  329. JReality

    Also, he said that the increase of the margin requirements for silver futures is what killed silver. He says the same thing could happen to gold. I hope he is wrong.

  330. Alex in Montana

    JReality

    Wouldn’t surprise Gary from what he has reported on the subject.

    Watch the COMEX/Regulators increase margin requirements 5 times in a short period (just like silver) if gold were to get to, let’s say, $2,000 to $2,100 in a few months – late August/September.

    If they do that, having observed silver, then you know what to do.

  331. Matt

    Gary,

    I know you are probably bored of hearing kudos, but I must say you have an uncanny knack for this market.

    After your 1578 mention in last nights report, I decided to place a limit order last night for a boat load of futures at 1578 and went to bed. In the morning, I awoke to see my order was filled (barely) and the market continued up all day without much hesitation. A thing of beauty…

    I was messing around with Dollar futures and missed your initial call – so the chase was on. But your subtle reads often provide great entry positions.

    Kick some ass this weekend.

  332. Harry

    Gary, what’d you do with all the money you’ve been making? Can’t you afford something better than Applebee’s?

  333. Jerred

    interesting that Tom Sosnof wants to make comments about margin requirements on Silver when his TOS platform raised margin to 30k plus per contract.

    I believe that was 50% higher then the exchange requirement.

  334. Éamonn

    That guy Tekoa da Silva is so young and so serious about his gold and miners LOL How the hell did he get into the game so quick?

  335. Harry

    Eamonn, I’m not too much older than he is. We young folk will have more time to go after the ponzi collapse, so theoretically we’re more highly incentivized to prepare for the afterscape ;P

  336. JEFFtheFLEA

    what gary said about applebees, well the family and i went to redlobster ( not my favorite, i always leave hungry ) we got there at 5pm this friday evening and it was half full,maybe a little more. usually they are packed. olive garden is beside them and same story there

  337. Éamonn

    Harry, good luck. I pulled out yesterday from gold. thought it was getting overcooked. waiting patiently for a pullback to enter positions again…

  338. Rob L.

    Éamonn,

    You really sold out of $gold yesterday? You had some serious strong-hand status, Bro. Why not hold until near the top of the IT cycle in the fall? You’d make a ton of cash.

    I am about 70% invested and am waiting for a pullback to add the remainder. The longer I wait the more I think that this baby won’t pull back until the daily cycle low.

    Old turkey during IT cycle ascents might be where it’s at! Not preaching here, just trying to help out a fellow SMT’er.

  339. JEFFtheFLEA

    Eamonn
    wtf your out of gold? wow . Have you not been following for a long time. how are you going to reenter? 20 dollar pullback?
    why not buy some puts and if we go down just sell them. now you are out? i hope we pull back to 1500 . that would be a great do over. hope it works . good luck

  340. Éamonn

    JEFFtheFLEA, Seems over stretched to me. A little shakeout is needed. Maybe it will come when the debt ceiling is lifted

  341. JEFFtheFLEA

    i have a put under every futures contract. if we go down i will sell them and buy the lower strike and make a little. 1550 would be my spot to roll them down. or if the next daily cycle stop is above my average of 1575 ill drop them and just use the stop

  342. Wav_ridah

    “Men who can be both right and sit tight are uncommon. I found it one of the hardest things to learn. But it is only after a stock operator has firmly grasped this that he can make the big money.”

    Sinclair’s father Bert Seligman

  343. DP

    JeffTheFlea —

    Can you elaborate please on why do you prefer gold futures over combination of GLD/options?

    Leverage? Better management?

  344. ...at ease

    86, thanks on the web site for gold coins. Not in VA, still in London until end of summer. Heading out for a few weeks to tour the other countries. Hoping gold does a steady climb while away.

  345. Wav_ridah

    I’m wondering if Silver will break out of this trading range. The H&S bottom had a target of 39 and change. Seem like there’s a lot of resistance just below 40 and support just above 33. If silver can cut through 40 it will have a very nice base. We’ll see…

  346. Wav_ridah

    I’ve bee messing around with Netdania tonight and I am impressed. Anyone looking for free charting needs to give this one a shot. When done with your TA click print, click cancel on print set up, then right click your chart and save. Send to Screencast or Flickr.

  347. DP

    Here is my observation, folks.

    For the last 2.5 year of gold run, every time after making a new high, it corrected to 20 DEMA, or little lower.

    It was happening almost always, except 2 or 3 periods of “parabolic”-like runs just like we saw in the second half of May 2011.

    So, my take is we are either at the beginning of a “parabolic”-type run, or beginning of the correction to 20 EDMA.

  348. DP

    JeffTheFlea —

    DEMA = Daily Exponential Moving Average.

    Can you elaborate please on why do you prefer gold futures over combination of GLD/options?

    Leverage? Better management?

  349. TommyD

    Le Fou,

    **********BIG THANK YOU ************ for the ‘IT cycle’ meaning. I wrote it down a while back but the mind is not what it use to be.
    Now where did I put my lit cigar? sniff, sniff…

    Everyone, have a great weekend and go do something that helps pump the blood…

  350. 86d4life

    W2,
    Are you out there in TV land? I was wondering, why are you starting to use options when you were already using futures. From what I have gathered here, I can definately see the advantages in futures trading. I would send you an email, but I know that`s pointless…………

    BTW, the briskets are still on, gettin it done. If you jump on the plane now, you should make it in time for dinner.

  351. JEFFtheFLEA

    DP

    i like the futures because
    1) taxes are less
    2) trades trough the night
    3) the power can wipe you out, but what i have been doing is put a put under each contract. So right now i have one sept put at the money and one long contract against it. i give up 38 ( give or take) dollars but i have all the drawdown protection i need)
    If we were to get a 40 drop right now i would sell my puts and buy them back at the money. I would make a little that way and give the futures to move back up with out the puts pressing down on them. I guess you can do that all with the stocks, but like i said the 24 hr tradeing and less taxes ( dont want to feed the monster anymore than we need to)

  352. samppa_nyman

    So what are the taxes in the US for stock, commodity etc gains? Here in Finland all capital gains are taxed at 28%, about to rise to I think 29 or 30 with the new government… Fukn’ hell, as if making a profit isn’t hard enough

  353. KAL

    OK folks, anyone want to share your portfolio percentages at this point?

    Of what I have invested (close to 100% of portfolio), I am about 50% GDXJ, 25% GDX, 25% DGP. I have another chunk coming available soon, so I have a decision to make on how to allocate. Thinking get some NUGT and more DGP. Anybody want to share what you have? I am not thinking options, I am focused on a return to my pre-silver-silliness balance at this point and want to be prudent. Stops are at Gary’s stop amounts on GLD.

    Also I don’t have time or energy to peruse individual miners. So, this won’t apply to some of you who build your own baskets.

    Anyhow, anybody willing to share, it would be appreciated.

    Hey, Eamonn… Do you have a plan about the highest price you will see in gold before you chase? I don’t want you to miss out, nor does anyone else on here!

  354. High 5

    From what I understand, Switzerland has a setup where you can give them around 30k a year to cover your taxes regardless of your income. So a person making 3 million in capital gains would only pay 30k.

    The US government is busy erecting a Berlin wall, financially speaking, around the country. Even if one was to give up US citizenship they are obligated to pay income taxes for the next ten years and are charged an exit tax on all their net worth.

    Socialism is imprisonment.

  355. Gold Lion

    Kal,
    You’re pretty diversified with just GDX and GDXJ. I manage four portfolios and do select individual jr. mining companies, but one smaller portfolio with only six positions has GDX in it. Another has AGQ bought at 166.50. The biggest portfolio has some 30 jr mining stocks (gold, silver, platinum and palladium). Most were bought in the 08 panic and will be held until we have a mania.

  356. Gold Lion

    Does anyone on the board have any experience with Advanced GET trading/charting software? I have been using ESignal for years and recently saw a web demo on Advanced GET. I’m not really a short term or swing trader much anymore, but that software looks pretty interesting. Worth 3k? I dono….

  357. Beanie

    Tech bulls coming back next week. I’m long BIDU and holding into thursday’s earnings.

    GOOG was awesome; I was in it and already took profits though it looks to be headed higher next week.

  358. Gary

    Beanie,
    You have to be the best contrary indicator ever invented. As hard as it is to make money shorting one could get rich if they sold whenever you post.

    Of course if one had bought gold or miners when I called the bottom they would already have made more money in two weeks than a tech investor has made all year.

  359. JEFFtheFLEA

    ok people have a life, i know that . i should just turn off the puter, i know that.
    But not one post in hours and hours. common people it garys blog!
    sorry i dont have anything to add either

  360. 86d4life

    Jeff the Flea,
    Your not alone man! I know by fri afternoon this week, I was just fried. I would like to know more about the futures you trade. It`s all smoke anf mirrors to me at this point but after alot of the posts I see here, I can understand some of the advantages. Which broker do you use? What is the basic framework foe how a futures contract works? It would be great to have any input you want to share. Thanks.

  361. JEFFtheFLEA

    arron at daniels tradeing 1 312 706 7661
    i must stress gary is all about old turkey.
    arron will help you not get more leveraged than you want to and explain the leverage potential. if you get leveraged to the max you can blow out your account in a 10 dollar move down

  362. 86d4life

    Jeff the F,
    Thank you. I agree on the Old Gold Turkey. Hopefully we`ll see some sort of a mild pull back shortly and I will be up to limit(I always want to leave a little cash) and then I was considering throwing my computers in the pool! Well, ok, I don`t have a pool but in mn, 10,000 lakes and all, it`s not hard to bodies of water.

    Anybody have any feelings on this debt ceiling situation? Of course the dirty rats will raise it(why not,it`s a freebie, right?)But I guess my question, maybe we get a tad of pullback in the next few days and the debt ceiling issue acts as the platform for the next phase of liftoff? Gary, your thoughts perhaps.

  363. JEFFtheFLEA

    86
    aug 2( the deadline) is in the neighborhood for a daily cycle. i dont care what they come up with, when is cycle time we will see it go up or rocket up, end of story. its just going to be a trigger for what it is going to do already.
    i bought 1 contract at 1515. but got left in the dust after that. on the rest of my positions i have a put option protecting each contract. the next daily cycle i will turn them loose if the stop is over 1565. ask arron what i am doing and ill tell him he can share. you may come up with totally different ideas. best of luck to you and everyone

  364. 86d4life

    Jeff,
    Thanks, what am I missing here; I have 7/22 marked on my calendar as the deadline on the debt ceiling. Also marked as this week is the week for cycle bottoms.

  365. JEFFtheFLEA

    ok we are on day 8 of the cycle according to garys sight. day 20 is aug 2 ( we only count tradeing days) and

    What happens if Congress doesn’t raise the debt ceiling before Aug. 2? No one knows for sure. But the going assumption is that no good can come of it.( i just pulled this clip off of googleing ” debt ceiling” just glanceing around i see aug 2 in many places)

  366. Keys

    HMMM…I am wondering if Ben is waiting for a debt default to initiate some sort of QE#. Ie the fed comes in to save the day, to avoid evil deflation, as it monetizes debt. Don’t worry we won’t raise the debt level, we have unlimited amount of money to cover everything.
    Imagine, in order to avoid default the Fed prints money to keep the debt ceiling from being breached. Ben saves the day again from evil deflation. This is not stimulus, it’s saving our creditors from a default.

    food for thought on a boring hot sunday

  367. 86d4life

    Jeff,
    Thanks for pointinh that out. I made notes on my calendar at my desk when I was going through one of the reports, but didn`t date my info. And then just kind of spaced it. Several lessons learned in one shot. Great part of this blog, when most people are trying to work together, it helps keep most of us a little safer. Kind of swell thinking we may have some better entry points ahead too. I think alot of people got caught unawares, and a second good entry point will help alot of people. I`m really looking forward to this ride.

  368. Dubbelito

    Hi guys,
    Hope everyone are well this fine weekend!
    I just got my hands on an iPad and so I was wondering if there are any favoured apps for charts? I found thinkorswim which seems good, anybody have any other suggestion?
    Thanks.
    /Dubbelito

  369. JEFFtheFLEA

    for the iphone i like the bloomberg app and i did like furturesource but they dropped the dollar index. futuresource may just be changeing the floormat of the web page. let me know if you find some favorites

  370. Harry

    Just to add on to what Jeff was saying earlier… I’m also leveraged by trading futures contracts, but before I take a position I always calculate the drawdown I could withstand and still be able to add another contract. E.g., if I’m long six contracts how far could the commodity drop before I’m unable to add a seventh. For gold I like to have a safety margin of at least $50-60 (an average daily cycle pullback).

  371. Gary

    It’s more likely that gold will go down once the debt ceiling is raised.

    I know that’s illogical but gold is already busy discounting more printing. The market will probably take profits once it becomes a reality.

  372. Gary

    I’m not lifting. I’m coaching our team.

    So far we have one bronze metal. Not too bad considering it is his first nationals.

    We should get another metal tonight in the super heavyweight class. Hopefully a gold.

  373. Keys

    I am voting for a default…ie can’t get a deal done in time…..of course this is a cigar and scotch bet…see this way I look brilliant if I am right, and if wrong I just say “I was just playing”… LOL

  374. TommyD

    Zero hedge had some info about Europe worrying and that Gold was going to open tonight at 1600. IT DID!!!

    Things setting up for an interesting few days this week…

  375. JEFFtheFLEA

    ok so that is 4 currencies breaking new highs. The dollar, euro, sterling, and now aussie.
    I am so happy im on the right side of gold now, ALL due to gary ( and my broker helpping me stick to smt)

  376. Wav_ridah

    ZSL may be a nice play real soon. I don’t think it wants to penetrate 40. I’m hoping for continued strength into the market open.

  377. Dan

    Wav,

    Are you really going to start shorting the PMs and even more so, silver? Only time I have ever shorted silver was at parabolic tops. IMO beyond that, the odds are not in your favor as we are in a bull market.

  378. Wav_ridah

    Nah, not going to take profit until Gary says to. But I do have 20 % I plan to trade with. Look at my chart from July 16 at 2 pm. I have silver in a trading range. If I do take the trade it will be with a stop at around 40.25 (just a guess right now). The downside in silver may be too big not to take the trade especially if we can get a debt ceiling raise this week.

  379. aubug

    Jeff the Flea

    My mistake — Aussie $ GOLD was higher in early 2009.

    Strong Aussie $ is one of the reasons the Aussie gold shares have been lagging. Still, can’t complain because trips to the US are super-cheap for us due to the US Peso.

  380. Hack

    Silver has clearly broken out of it’s range so I’m using the miners to bank coin, the returns are becoming quite impressive…

  381. aubug

    Eamonn,

    Have you heard that the Mexicans have had to step up border security due to the number of Americans trying to sneak across for a better life?

  382. Éamonn

    Not that I am saying anything against the Mexican way of life. Every country has their own way. Though my understanding is that the US has a higher standard of living. Maybe I am wrong – wouldn’t be the first time I’ve been caught out with my ignorance!

  383. Clarkatroid

    Silver leading the charge again here

    My holdings –
    PHGP(lon) 30%
    DGP 20%
    GDXJ 20%
    GDXJ 10%
    AGQ 5%
    SLW 5%
    10% physical , mainly silver kilo good delivery bars. I’ve really enjoyed building up a physical base of pms over the summer, and would heartily recommend doing it. Something feels very reassuring and secure actually holding what we are all so passionate about. I feel It gives me a solid base to work from

  384. TheBookGuy

    It is very exciting to see gold over $1600. I’ve been waiting a long time for that. If we do reach $1800 during this cycle, that will be amazing in many ways. As long as we waited for $1600 it seems that gold hitting $1800 in a few short months would be impossible. I’m almost afraid to hope for it.

  385. Slumdog

    Exhaustion gap on a daily if SI price stays in this range, above Merc Pit range of Friday.

    And we’re at 40, Gary’s predicted high range for SI.

    After short term profit taking to clean out the anxious late-comers, imo, the only rational number to consider is a challenge to the prior high.

    On a Monthly chart, after last month’s pullback, a retest of the prior high is pretty normal stuff.

    Gary believes this is not the right time for a blow off high in the C wave, but that doesn’t preclude this retest of the 50 high.

    Being very conservative, the retest at 50 is a nothing-burger.

    SI can move to 50 and above, and do nothing to damage the cycle timing for the blow off high that Gary believes is still 1-2 years out.

    50 is 25% above current price. That’s a nice enough return, leveraged or not, in the physical, in a fund, or in the miners.

  386. Slumdog

    NB: Silver/gold ratio has moved from 43/1 two weeks ago to 40/1.

    SI ain’t over til it’s over. When SI takes out, or even tags 50, it will not be the backside of the parabola.

    The fundamentals within SI are real, and there remains a persistent net consumption greater than production.

    The excess of the 1980 family-silver, x-ray sheet, and plater’s inventory selling has been consumed now, years ago.

    The price squeeze based on consumption need will raise its reality-head one more time.

    And at that moment, we will finally witness the blow off high. 50 wasn’t it. And 50 again, shortly, ain’t it, either.

    Even at $130, an inflation adjusted number equal to 1980’s $50, that number will not reflect the reality that above-ground, available silver doesn’t exist in a quantity big enough to meet demand.

    The coin stackers and bar hoarders won’t be psychologically prepared to sell when the market goes nuts on the up-side. But the big producers will be selling their childrens’ childrens toys when the parabola screams up, and at that time, irrationality will over-ride rational pricing decisions, and the move up will be over.

    2012? 2013? It’s coming.

  387. TheBookGuy

    slumdog

    You think we will hit $2k? That would be pretty phenomenal. I don’t know if I could hold all the way to $2k. My current plan is to sell dgp at $1750 and all other positions at $1790. I want to lock in gains and not suffer another issue like in May.

  388. Slumdog

    We’ve hit round numbers in SI and GC. And we have an opening gap.

    Eamon, profit taking will occur, and it will be obvious.

    Why does it matter if you’re in “here”, or “there”? Here’s no different than there.

    It’s a risk/reward question. Here is a lot less safe than when Gary smartly called the turn. And we’re way ahead of that turn call, now. So, you gotta be feeling anxious that you’ve missed the move.

    Say to yourself, “So What!!!”

    Your turn will show up when the profit taking flash drop occurs, whether today or next week. Wait for that solid ground of panic and pain on the downside. The newbies and latecomers ALWAYS get smashed. Watch, and wait.

  389. Slumdog

    Book Guy, Gary’s among the very few, smartest traders in the world at this time. So are some of the posters in this blog commentary.

    Just watch what they do and follow their advice.

    Poly’s and Veronica’s track records are amazing. And they’re sharing in real time!

    This by far is the best gathering of outstandingly knowledgeable PM traders I’ve ever encountered, and I’ve looked at nearly everyone over the past 30 years.

    Most of the investment “advisors” flat out lie by omission as their histories just plain suck.

    For me, there are the additional 6 or so posters whose posts I study, copy and paste and save, too. And there is that new guy, too, all of who are really being decent to us all when they share their viewpoints, too. You guys and gal know who you are, and I and I’m sure many readers here thank you for sharing, too. {I don’t want to list you as I’ll feel like a heel if I inadvertantly miss mentioning one of you.)

  390. TheBookGuy

    SD,

    Great reply. I also thank you for your wisdom. I feel very blessed for having found Gary. I think part of why he doesn’t reply to our thanks is because some of those thanking him were some of the same acting insane when we missed the top last time. Gary and some others here are absolutely amazing in their skills.

  391. Slumdog

    Isn’t it fair to say that Sinclair has shown his wisdom and expressed himself bravely, both in words and in his purchase of Tanzanian wilderness awaiting the buying frenzy he was able to see repeating?

    He nearly bet a million bucks on his beliefs, and though wrong on the date, he hit the direction and the enormity of it well within a high scoring dart shot.

    The fact that he’s gone nuts here, which means the guy’s not nuts at all, looking at beyond his highest dream call of the past, means the great Bernanke and his replacement have no choice but to continue flooding money and its equivalent into the system. It means we can’t lose.

    My prediction of $6000 a few years ago is merely 50% of what Sinclair is now foreshadowing. Whew!

  392. TheBookGuy

    SD,

    Sinclair has stood his ground. I would not count on him to trade from, but he certainly has stood his ground and his heart seems to be to help people. These times will be interesting for sure.

  393. Aaron

    Alex, Sinclair’s numbers and dates have no relevance. If you look at history, the only valid top he ever called was in 1980 and that was incredibly impressive. He is good on long term calls (the validity of the bull) but his targets and dates are useless.

  394. TheBookGuy

    Alex,

    Probably something Alf Fields or Martin Armstrong said. He follows a few other people and quotes them from time to time. He got really angry at Martin Armstrong when he predicted a low in June.

    Sinclair is a good human, but he will lose you money if you try to trade off of his perma bull in gold attitude. He also gets very angry when someone doesn’t agree with him.

  395. Michael

    Gary,

    I noticed from Jason at Sentimentrader that Rydex Fund Traders have not bought into the rally in gold yet. Have you seen this situation before and/or do you have an opinion about it?

    Thx

  396. Mark

    Silver is blowing gold away. How could anyone have bought GLD, when CEF was trading at a discount,outperforms GLD because it contains silver, and won’t default in the end???

    A big, lost opportunity to buy CEF under $20, IMHO.

  397. Michael

    Hi All, don’t know the correct attribution of this work except that it’s from jsminset.com blog and I have not saved the exact source.

    http://picturepush.com/public/6121261

    Not sure that the sample of companies is representative so take it with a grain of salt, however, the message regarding miners vs gold and big caps (GDX) vs small caps (GDXJ) is strong.
    Cheers.

  398. Mark

    Prediction****

    Silver breaks $50 this year, and Gary’s “broken parabola” theory is shattered.

    Gary then becomes a silver bull again, much sooner than he ever thought possible. It will be the reverse of the way he came to doubt silver.

  399. Poly

    “I noticed from Jason at Sentimentrader that Rydex Fund Traders have not bought into the rally in gold yet. Have you seen this situation before and/or do you have an opinion about it?”

    It’s not that they haven’t bought into it, it’s that they “trapped out”, they missed it and are afraid to chase it. So many waiting on the sideline for a pullback.
    This IT cycle will be a monster.

  400. Dan

    Considering silver just added $6 over the past couple weeks, arguing that it adds another $10 over the next 5 months seems quite possible.

    I added agq when Gary called the bottom so ill be more than happy with a double top or any breaks above $50. Just disappointed I didn’t get a chance to complete my phyz shopping.

  401. Gary

    No Gary doesn’t invest in broken parabola’s. I will be more than happy to underperform to avoid the risk of getting caught in another collapse.

    Don’t you think margin requirements are going to be raised again as this continues. Look at 2006 again. Once silver made a double top down it crashed again.

    The simple fact is that silver is a parabola. One of the largest I’ve ever seen. That means it’s dangerous and the further it rallies the more dangerous it becomes. You can pat yourself on the back right now because silver is outperforming but if you get caught twice you’re going to be beating your head against the wall.

    I have no intention of making the same mistake twice.

  402. Keys

    Silver is dangerous in my view. May make alot, but as all the people run into it, the exit will be even more wicked on the way out. Silver may go above 50, but once that pre-market 15% drop happens, we may see a 20% down day in silver…AGQ becomes -40% in one day. Those in futures will have an easier time, but if gold goes parabolic and silver tags along, the surge will be wicked in both directions. Caution is warranted in my opinion. Heck if gold doesn’t correct soon, caution in gold and miners will be warranted too. Anytime something soars really high and fast, we need to get more cautious not less.

  403. Keys

    Gary is the potential for gold being in a run away possible…if so, then the exit button might be sooner than this fall. I get nervous when markets don’t correct.
    Not nervous yet, but I am getting that hair prickle in the back of my neck again if gold doesn’t correct soon.

  404. Shalom Bernanke

    Miners’ earnings will be coming out in roughly 3 weeks. I don’t bet earnings, but if I was forced to, I’d wager on upside surprises and momentum into the reports.

  405. David

    Rydex biggest holding is FCX. (which has not broken out) Does that have anything to do with Traders “not buying into it?
    Jenny

  406. Dan

    No point in arguing the silver topic as we all know it’s more risky than gold and will follow golds move. If you want leverage then go for it, if not then stay away. Fortunately I didn’t get burned by the parabola as I was only one day late getting out and had puts for the ride down but I saw lots of people on this board did.

  407. Éamonn

    How long can the US debt talks go on before they must announce an agreement? Isn’t there a specific lead in time before Aug 2 that needs to be there to draft legislation and vote on it etc? Anyone know?

  408. Éamonn

    It seems excruciating the way these debt talks are dragging on. You’d wonder how they get anything done at all. Playing politics with such a serious issue does not cast them in a good light, IMO

  409. Shalom Bernanke

    I won’t be doing anything with metals or miners until we get a few down days, so will focus on my shorter term stuff for now. I’ll peek in before the close.

    Take care, and good luck!

  410. High 5

    The main stream media is saying if the debt limit isn’t increased then the US will have to default on its debts. It’s just not true.

    The interest payments will be made one way or the other.

  411. Éamonn

    Poly, yes, Italy is really after showing up for the PIIGS party. Just like Felix Zulauf said they would a few months ago when everything seemed fine with Italy

  412. Keys

    Non-issue in my regards…fun to debate, but the effect if they don’t come to a deal or get a deal will be the same. The fact that the US gov spends too much is the real issue, and real cuts need to be made. Social Security Medicare/Medicaid need to be substantially cut in order for the budget to balance…at this point there is nothing else that can be done. I am not talking about fairness; the simple math makes this the case. Neither side is going to do this…so the debts will continue to increase no matter what. And correct minimal payments is the American way of life, even if you are broke

  413. Dan

    My userstanding is the deadline for an agreement on the debt ceiling is end of this week. So I would imagine they will reach and agreement by midnight on Friday and with that maybe well finally get a correction in the PMs. Probably wouldn’t be a bad idea to take some profits at the end of the week just in case.

  414. TommyD

    I saw a film called “America IOU” back in 2008. This problem will take 55+ Trillion to print just to get a grip on the plundering that took place.
    Countries will come unseated in the process. It’s becoming, imho, an economic world war in my opinion. The axis is China, Russia, Iran and others against the free world. But, we must do away with the Euro first so that we have one agreed upon currency controlled by the bankers with the USA military backing it. Deep I know…

  415. Poly

    If gold does not pullback here, which I believe will not, it just implies a nice scary little DCL later on. Probably the “surprising” news that the debt ceiling was raised. 🙂 Which of course many will call as “the end” of the gold run and fail to buy the dip, again.

  416. Duuuuuude

    I am not sure what will stop this gold bull until we simply run out of buyers. If they decide to support the dollar and stop printing money, there will be a mass exodus of funds out of stocks and into gold. If they decide to print more money, there will be a mass exodus out of treasuries and dollars into gold to preserve wealth. What other scenario besides running out of buyers can stymie this bull?

  417. LowTax

    A question for all the UK guys: I’d like to get my sister to devote part of her income into PMs/miners and I am not familiar with brokerage houses in the UK. Can you guys suggest a couple that have low comissions? Thanks.

  418. Éamonn

    Dan, thanks. I thought that deadline was today so I sold my positions last Thursday. Fcuk. Ok, back in again til this Thursday…

  419. Mark

    James Dines says silver is going to $300 to $500.

    What happened to $200 silver in 2013? That was the Gary Savage prediction. That’s 500% in 2 years. Sounds great to me.

    I don’t expect a series of margin hikes in silver again. On top of that, it is becoming a physical market, and pretty soon, the only ones who’ll be negatively effected by a margin increase will be the shorts.

  420. 86d4life

    Ok, just went on Google and checked a few articles; the official debt ceiling deadline is Aug 2. Where did all this July 22 come from? I saw the 22nd again this morning, but the bigger issue I think is aug 2 seems to fit pretty nifty with the next dcl. Outstanding!! Gentleman; prepare to fire at will!!

  421. Dan

    86,

    They must agree by July 22 in order to pass the legislation by august 2. Takes time to write the bill and get it through congress, senate, president etc.

  422. 86d4life

    Dan,
    Thanks, I had just read that, I guess I got my wires crossed. I thought the Real deadline was the 22nd. Like a dividend date and the ex-date.

  423. Poly

    “Does the dollar rallying have any effect on gold at this point?”

    No, they are actually a paired trade to some extent, it’s a safe haven play.

  424. hamvestor

    Gary, you just said “Don’t you think margin requirements are going to be raised again as this continues.”

    If memory serves, you said earlier that the drop in silver had nothing to do with raising margin requirements. Do you have a different view now?

  425. Mark

    KWN London Trader:

    “Right now silver is looking very bullish because the open interest is so small. It appears there is a lot more room on the upside for silver vs gold because of the current structure, but I am not saying gold is anywhere near the top.”

  426. Russell

    Poly,
    What worry for gold is there price wise of silver overheating, margins subsequently inceasing resulting in another wicked drop in silver and a pullback on gold? It was silver that killed our last run in gold.
    Rhoughts?

  427. Mark

    To say 5 margin increases in 10 days was not a factor is silly. It was for the benefit of the commercial shorts, according to Eric Sprott.

  428. Poly

    Russell,

    I’m not trading any Silver, I like gold’s action and feel comfortable with how it’s moving and where it is going. Folks are looking for the action with silver, I just adjust my leverage using gold.

  429. Éamonn

    Poly, what has you so jeed up about this IT cycle? Are you selling before the (assumed) debt announcement on Friday? Thanks…

  430. Dan

    Big down day for the markets, nice to see PM stocks following gold up, hopefully this holds into the close.

  431. Farm Girl

    Anyone else own collectable coins? The pre-1933 Saint Gaudens graded MS-65 are extremely cheap,trading at their lowest premium to melt value ever. Beautiful, too.

  432. Duuuuuude

    WW, I enjoy reading your posts. You always raise good questions.

    Left translated cycles peak out left of center and right translated cycles peak out right of center. That simple. So, if a daily gold cycle typically runs 2- to 30 days, then you should be able to tell in 10 – 15 days if it is RT or LT. If my count is correct, we are on day 11. It looks more RT all the time.

  433. William Wallace

    Duuude,

    Thanks…I understand, like you said thats simple…what im confused somewhat about is if this cycle was to peak lets say today, we wouldnt know whether or not if it is left or right translated until we have a DCL, correct?

  434. Robert Thrane

    How would you know it peaked today until about 20 days later at the DCL?

    Most likely this will be a RT cycle, and possibly could dip down into something like a half cycle low soon, and then finish the cycle higher than the point it’s at now.

  435. Robert Thrane

    If this is a new intermediate cycle all the cycles should pretty much be RT until we get to the end of the IT cycle.

    Then LT cycles are warnings of the next IT low coming.

  436. Poly

    Poly, what has you so jeed up about this IT cycle? Are you selling before the (assumed) debt announcement on Friday?

    Eamon,

    A number of different reasons why I’m jeed up, besides pure intuition, one version is based upon how this IT cycle was launched before a clearing of the technical’s, market participants were fixated on certain moving average triggers and the seasonality. Major moves catch many flat footed, as this has. (Kudos to Gary on calling this real time, paid for your subscription many times over)

    There is still so little speculative interest in this market (relatively) and so many waiting for a pullback. The demand for gold here is really impressive (relatively thin market) and the bid under the market is highly suggestive, IMO, of a blowoff IT cycle in the works. I’m also not ruling out this being a shortened IT cycle to accommodate a fast and furious blow-off by late Sep or early Oct. Another reason why I bought it aggressively and do not want to lost my position.

    As for selling, yes I will try to sell some to clear the way for more buying at the cycle low. Only if we can catch a spike next week that suggests a cycle top is in, otherwise just ride it back down.

    Lunch time.

  437. Robert Thrane

    Dallas,

    Tulving is great supposedly but I think you need a minimum of around $10k-$20k to purchase.

    Otherwise APMEX or eBay. Or you could just buy Sprott’s ETFs and then if you ever really need to take possession of the physical you can call it in.

  438. MrMiyagi

    dallascfp,
    I’ve dealt with Kitco in Montreal as I live in Canada but I know a lot of Americans do as well. Smooth transaction.

  439. Russell

    Poly,
    I’m trading gold as well. My worry is that even if we do not own silver, could we get a pull down again by a repeat of the last silver collapse like in April? Could Silver once again heat up too quickly and abort our gains in gold?

  440. Robert Thrane

    Poly if you look at the gaps on the GDX, as well as the metals compared to their 10 DMAs, I think in the next week or two we’ll see a nice frenzied pull back. We could probably still drift higher for a week or so, but I do expect the gap on GDX to be filled in the next two to three weeks max.

    The problem is most non-professionals first don’t recognize things like that and second don’t have the patience to wait out two to three weeks.

    It is not a certainty the gaps will fill, BUT the 10 DMA on either the miners or metals should be touched at some point soon, this is a certainty.

  441. Robert Thrane

    The markets are still managed IMO, professionals still will sell and short stretches above means. I don’t see a runaway move developing until probably the end of this bull market.

    I do think it is a semi-likely scenario that once the debt ceiling is raised gold will move back down and some people will be duped into believing the PM bull is over.

  442. MrMiyagi

    If gold closes at 1600$+ today, that, in my opinion, will be a big psychological barrier taken down.
    Plus it will get a lot of attention.

  443. DG

    UNG just popped up on my sell screen, so I shorted it. last time was in May at 12.80 and it was 11.65 a week later.

  444. William Wallace

    Cool Loser,

    The only way we would know if this is a left translated cycle is if it were to top on say day 12 and then head lower for more then 13 days before bottoming.

  445. Ryan

    I know most including myself like DGP more vs UGL b/c of the higher volume but I’ve noticed for at least a few days now UGL is more in lines 2X GLD than DGP is?

  446. Cool_Loser

    William,
    Wouldn’t that indicate a failed daily cycle? Something very unlikely in a bull market? I guess my real question is this: Shouldn’t this daily cycle wind up to be, more than likely, right translated?

  447. William Wallace

    Robert,

    86d4life makes moose sweatshirts with antlers and the damn guy pushed some beaver boxers on me with the tail in the front….told me that was his his biggest seller and most popular!!! Now im pissed!

  448. William Wallace

    Robert,

    LOLLL…delete that comment! It wasn’t Ellen he sold them all to, it was me!!! That dirty rotten beaver eater made me think I could flip them for a profit!!

  449. Robert Thrane

    I cannot foresee many New Yorkers sporting customer Beaver shorts, but maybe if you go up a little north, maybe Vermont or Maine, I think you’ll have plenty of luck!

  450. Robert Thrane

    Or WW, you talked about having more kids, maybe you could just extend the family to maybe 10 kids, and then all of you could match with all your Beaver shorts! You guys would look sweet!!!

  451. William Wallace

    Robert,

    Believe me when you sport beaver shorts with the tail sewn to the front under your pants you will be suprised how many women flock around you, I could sell these things even in florida!

  452. Ben

    People burned by the parabola collapse will be a continuing drag, and they will have a hair trigger for a while, hence the drag going forward.

    However… the bull continues to mature, and by the next major cycle in two to three years, the number of people involved will be considerably higher than today; by the final cycle, prob 6 or 7 years from now, I’d venture that there will be at least ten times as many small investors involved as today.

    Yesterday’s parabola won’t even be a footnote by then.

    But for a while, it is going to have an effect, just as Gary said, because of basic human nature. Not enough to keep me out completely, however, but AGQ won’t be the dominant investment for me like it was in April.

  453. Robert Thrane

    The problem with silver is that if there is a dcl or a half-dcl it will probably be annihilated!

    Gary’s right it could do something crazy $40 to $35 or something along those lines. BEWARE!

  454. Robert Thrane

    Your kids are going to be so sweet when they grow up if they’ve already been accustomed into woodchuck speedos!

    DAMN, they’ll all probably be as cool as Justin Timberlake or Ben Affleck!

  455. Dan

    If we get a dip here, how deep will it be? It seems that everyone and their mother (myself included) either wants to initiate positions or wants to add to their positions as this run took them by surprise.

  456. Robert Thrane

    Dan that’s why I said it will probably go up or sideways longer than most peoples patience, then correct.

    Could be all the way at the daily cycle low.

  457. MrMiyagi

    Robert T,
    Prices trend till lunchtime, then the shysters go for expensive meals and come back to finish off the day.
    Most times from about 12 to 1:30pm eastern time the trading is lighter and prices less volatile.

  458. samppa_nyman

    Congrats gold for reaching 1600! Isn’t this one of those levels where smart money drives it up a few dollars above and then starts selling and driving the price down?

  459. 86d4life

    Ben,
    I`m not working for tulving or anything, but I just went and looked it up; american eagles, opened mint boxs,sell 2.69 over spot, buy back, 1.70 over spot. Pretty reasonable to me. Rounds are cheaper and junk cheaper yet. Maybe monex has better deals.

  460. 86d4life

    Breeze,
    Thanks for drumming up the business. Now I have to go see if I can find a set of patterns for shorts…………:)

    Catch you guys later.

  461. MrMiyagi

    As I mentioned a few posts above, the shysters are back from lunch, lubed up and stepping on the little joes but turning the prices around.

  462. William Wallace

    I really hope to see gold dip back into the 15 hundreds, I just felt better buying there. buying in the 16 hundred realm after this rally is making me sweat, I feel like the floor is ready drop out from under me.