389 thoughts on “STOPS UPDATED

  1. Felix

    Gary,

    Thanks for the update. May I ask, is the performance of the miners still within the bounds of your current model or are they warning you of something amiss?

  2. Gary

    Right now the miners are both discounting a coming daily cycle correction in gold and subject to the selling pressure coming off of the stock market.

  3. Gary

    SF,
    Unfortunately I have no idea how to tell you to receive text messaging. A subscriber sent me those directions and I have since deleted the e-mail.

  4. DG

    I remain unconvinced as to the value of buying miners. Buying a ton of DGP/GLD makes sense. I posted last week that we might have a day like this. My account is down marginally because I am all in DGP. I am NOT saying miners won’t go up and I am NOT saying they will not outperform, but I believe trading is about looking at the upside and the downside, and GLD/DGP to me has no downside whereas the miners may or may not. If I were as loaded with GDX and GDXJ as I am with DGP I’d be having an unhappy day. Given how fragile the stock market looks and all the credit problems flying around I’d rather own gold than a share of a business—any business. Just my take on the miner/GLD question.

  5. funmike

    Directions from a subscriber on how to set up phone notification any time I tweet. Which the website does automatically anytime anything is posted.

    “I am now subscribed to your twitter feed, but in an alternative way to tweetymail. I will get SMS (text) messages to my cell phone. Although my twitter account “follows” many people, I am able to have just the tweets from garysavage1 get texted to my cell phone.

    All I had to do was type

    follow garysavage1

    and send that text message to 40404. This tells twitter to send all tweets from garysavage1 to my cell phone. You don’t even have to have a twitter account, so anyone can do this. International subscribers will have to use a different code. Please refer them to your twitter page: http://twitter.com/#!/garysavage1 and have them touch the link that says “Text follow garysavage1 to your carrier’s shortcode”
    I hope this is useful info. It was inspired by your blurb on your welcome email which talks about tweetymail.”

  6. William Wallace

    DG,

    As I mentioned yesterday also in agreement with you being I am heavy DGP also and no miners…Brian mentioned that he thought it was worth it to be in miners because they are up 30% and DGP less, maybe you can point out for me how the miners are up 30% because I dont see it.

  7. DG

    Elaine: A good rule of thumb is not to let a gain turn into a loss. That forces discipline, and if you had a decent gain that is back to break-even it may be because something has changed.

  8. abc

    Do you think that today action in miners will intensify on rising debt limit? Gold doesn’t even start the correction, so it might be severe…

  9. Robert Thrane

    DG,

    I’m positioned more aggressively with miners versus just gold and DGP. Right now I’m actually very light and have been since 10 days ago on that gap up surge. I will be looking to get heavy here again soon.

    With where gold is right now relative to the miners, they are actually a lot less riskier than you’d think. Definitely if somehow it turns out we are out of Gold’s C-wave, then the miners are going to be punished but I, as you and most everyone here, don’t believe that to be the case.

  10. DG

    We will also get to see a test of the “avoid broken parabolas” idea. Does silver gets crushed this DC or does it decline more normally (maybe 2-3 X gold’s decline). It’ll be interesting to watch. I am out of AGQ as of this morning waiting to see what happens.

  11. Mr. T

    DG, I agree with you that miners are less of a one-way bet than GLD. Here’s how I see the odds;

    Gold up hard, market up hard, miners up hard.
    Gold up hard, market flat, miners up or flat.
    Gold up hard, market tanks, miners hold or down.
    Gold flat, market down, miners down. Gold down, market up, miners down…. Gold down, market down, miners down hard.
    Seems like a weak hand to me…

    I wish I could prove this relationship with a graph. Any technicians out there who could do this?

    Although, I will say this, I do believe that if there were to look for a potential out-weighted move in regards to the gold bull, miners would be the place to be… but with a lot of volatility.

  12. ALEX

    Earlier today I noted…

    I look at it this way. look at the miners and they bottomed Mid June, so they led the way up. and 3 examples

    1) Exk STILL up 35% ( was over 50% before pullback)

    2) SVM STILL up 35% (was 50% before pullback ..$8-$12))

    3)AG STILL up 40% (was up $60% off bottom)

    Gold was (July 1) $1480 + 10% = $1628 (today)

    With DGP, it is

    Bottom was roughly $45.19 + 17+ % = $53.20 (NOW)

    so really todays pullback in Miners STILL beats GDP in current positions ( just not daily)

  13. Rob L.

    Is this the beginning of the daily cycle correction or is there more to this (gold and the miner’s retreat) than I think? It looks like things are doing what they are supposed to do – am I wrong?

  14. William Wallace

    Alex,

    But the miners also topped way before gold…which means gold will still be rallying when miners begin their descent into a D-wave….so it all balances out πŸ™‚

  15. Felix

    A recent SMT forecast posited HUI running from 600-800 or 600-900 at the C-top. This would be approx. +33% or +50% in HUI, which NUGT would amplify to +66% or +100%.

    If GLD runs up 25%, then DGP gets +50%.

    If HUI underperforms this model and only *keeps up* with GLD’s 25% rise then you will not lose versus gold.

    The risk must be then the possibility that HUI will not even *keep up* with GLD, let alone outperform or rocket-blast.

    How much is that risk, that miners will not even *keep pace* with gold, let alone outperform? If they are extremely likely to at least keep up for this season, then the risk may be worth taking because of the potential sky-high reward.

  16. ALEX

    AAAHHH, didnt mean to say GDP ( Gross Domestic Product) πŸ™‚

    Meant to say my miners are still currently up 35% and DGP is only up 17% off lows. So the pullback doesnt hurt as much if you look at your gains , not your one-2-3 day loss.

    Those daily losses will be back soon, OR , you could sell and will get in again -( Higher or lower ) BUT while still holding your 35% gains now πŸ™‚

  17. William Wallace

    DG,

    The reason you would rather be heavy DGP with no miners is because you feel that you have a better sense of where gold is going (whether up or down), but dont feel that with the miners…its that simple…am I right?

  18. ALEX

    William

    Maybe evens out…Maybe not??

    If Miners make 120 % ( they already gained 50% on first leg up) , top out and you get out with 100%

    -You get 100%

    If DGP gains 75 % (its only gained 18% so far) and you sell after top for 60%

    -you get 60%

    Its all about the % gained…and where you get in and where you exit really πŸ™‚

  19. DG

    Alex: So just buy more DGP. If you’d by $50,000 of miners buy $75,000 of DGP. Then at least you will win if gold goes up and you don’t have to pick the “right” miners. Some are down and many are up less…and the decline is only one day old so far! Let’s see what happens over the next week.

  20. ALEX

    But William

    Its a good point that

    “When the Miners top” and we see maybe a large sell off candle …You could be in DGP or GLD or AGQ and say to yourself ” I’m selling 1/2 now and I may have 1 or 2 more days to sell , before this tops.”

    Sounds like a plan LATER ON, now its the Miners for me.

  21. DG

    WW: Not quite. People are bullish on the miners BECAUSE they are bullish on gold (and for other reasons), but gold is the driver. Miners are simply one step removed, as we saw in 2008. And don;t say “”that can;t happen again” because it can and probably will—I just don’t know when. Much of what is happening these days has little historical precedence. If gold goes up, gold will go up, and the miners will only very likely go up.

  22. Keys

    I agree the next decline will tell a tale to what is the best reward/risk investment…I tend to agree that DGP and like will be it perhaps. Interesting days ahead.

  23. rose

    Would someone please tie the following into the discussion in a very simple way. I do not know how to ask my question – DGP is down only minimally, at least so far…
    what might be the interpretation?

    Today’s closing:

    DGP 53.59 down .35 .065%
    NUGT 33.87 down 2.14 5.94%
    GLD 157.19 down .58 .37%
    GDX 58.48 down 1.81 3.00%
    GDXJ 36.80 down 1.66 4.32%

    With sincerest thanks in advance and with kindest regards,

    Rose

  24. Farm Girl

    Not to beat on it, but John Doody’s model says that relative to gold, the miners are as cheap as they’ve been two other times since 2001, and each time the miners gained well over 100%.

    Also, miners are a diversifying asset because they are often negatively correlated to the market – negative betas – with very low correlation coefficients.

    NEM beta = 0.52
    ABX beta = 0.65
    GG beta = 0.71

    GDX 3 year R2 = 0.01 – no relationship to market moves

  25. Felix

    Rose,

    It looks like NUGT is down double GDX’s decline for the day, as it’s supposed to be. Why is GDX (miners) down so much more than gold today?

    Gary wrote earlier that the miners were both discounting (anticipating) gold’s upcoming mid-cycle decline and participating in the stock market sell-off, if I understood.

    Farm Girl,

    Thank you, that is helpful technical answer for my own question about the risk of miners merely not *keeping up* this cycle. Hopefully G won’t change his mind about them either.

  26. MrMiyagi

    WW,
    I had a bunch of wiring that I got done as I AGAIN ran out of 2x4s to frame the ducts. So much for my math..

    Ah let’s see…. GLD puts? Nah.. gold might go down 40$ when the “deal is done” but I’m not playing that particular trade. So since I’m not in it, it will probably work out fine for you!
    If you really want to go in, go small, maybe 10 puts max? Don’t spend all my money!
    The DCL might end up being a lot less than we’re anticipating depending on circumstances, you might be better off passing on this trade and going in with more on the way up.

  27. CMT

    Off topic, but anyone on here sail?

    If so, I have a few questions about boats. You can email me at cmtcmt [at] gmail.com. Real name is Mike.

  28. MrMiyagi

    As I mentioned yesterday, UUP (US$ ETF) had a BB and bounced nicely today.
    Despite the heavy decrease in the US markets, neither SPY, QQQ or DIA had a BB crash although DIA kissed the line without breaking it.
    Chart-wise, this has taken a small amount of pressure of GLD’s upwards trajectory, brought the market indexes closer to bottom where if it were to run its’ course untouched, we’d have 3-5 days of lower prices. We shall see if the Big Boys put out a press releasing saying the “US Economy Needs Our Help! (by going further into debt)”.
    In other news, I am going to mow my lawn now.

  29. ...at ease

    Trading Accounts for Grandkids?

    Someone on this blog mentioned trading in their Grandkids accounts.
    I was wondering if you could tell me if this is possible to trade in Gold/GLD for educational accounts for Grandkids or if there are other types of accounts for them such as gift accounts with a limit we can contribute tax free to them per year and just trade in the accounts for them?

  30. ...at ease

    Eamonn, you were worried about US debt or the USD. I understand that you can trade in Canadian funds which might be safer.

    MrMyagi may be able to help with something in place of GLD. I know there are plenty of Canadian miners.

  31. Poly

    at ease,

    Sure you can trade on behalf of your grandkids, just open a custodial account in their name and contribute up to the gift tax limits allowed by law. These are rather generous limits and your spouse could also contribute.

    BUT careful, these are not 529 educational accounts, they do not come with tax breaks to you. Also once you make that gift to a minor, it becomes their asset, you are not allowed to withdraw or transfer the asset out.

    Instead of “trading” you could also just open up an investment plan DIRECTLY with a mutual fund or a transfer agent for equities you like. You could also open a custodian account in Tocqueville Gold mutual fund for example, that has paid handsomely to buy & hold reinvestment holders.

  32. ...at ease

    Poly, Thanks for the information. Currently I have 6 young Grandkids ages of 12 – 18 months, that I would like to be able to put something aside for them next year that will grow in time. With Gold topping out possibly in 2016, I want to make sure whatever I put the funds into, they can easily move to something else down the line. I won’t always be able to put funds aside in the future, however I figured if I took some GOLD profits from this year and planned for next year, I would be ready to set things up for them. Just trying to plan ahead. I don’t mind gifting it to them, just have to figure out that the funds grown in their name, not mine (tax wise).

  33. Poly

    When planning for a decade and more out, don’t forget the large blue chips. Sure we likely have a future bear market coming, but in the long run these industrials are super returners. Some quality names are paying 4%-6% dividends, which in real terms is an amazing return. Reinvested and compounded, a nice gift in 20 years. Quality equities are a very good inflation hedge too. Food for thought.

  34. ...at ease

    Poly,
    I need to investigate further how to set these types of funds up as I would need to get them started and managed. I opened up and initially funded educational accounts for my first two Grandsons for college so their parents could keep adding and I think they ended up using the funds already as the only thing I heard back on was the funds were losing money. So just want to make sure something is there for them in 10 years for the older grandkids and that what is invested, stays invested until needed.

  35. Ben

    at ease,

    I have Coverdale IRAs for my kids (for educational expenses). I’ve mostly traded gold and PM shares the past 2.5 years. At one time or another, I’ve had CEF, DGP, AGQ in them, along with various miners, GDXJ and SIL. From the bottom of ’08 to now, the youngest daughter’s account is up 668% in spite of today’s shellacking. It was up quite a bit more at the end of April.

  36. Ben

    at ease, note the Coverdale limit PER CHILD is $2k from all sources. It’s after tax, so all those earnings in my accounts are tax free. Good thing since the U she wants to attend next year is raising tuition 20% now AND another 20% next year.

    Good thing there’s no inflation…

  37. Ben

    Poly, when I first started them, the limit was $500 a year. For the youngest two kids, I will be able to cover 100% of their expenses for at least four years.

    I truly did not see that coming. The 8-year low in gold (which resulted in some miners selling for less than 1/2 their book value) is how those accounts catapulted. I got almost all those gains pre-Gary, btw…

  38. Poly

    Congrats Ben. Very impressive.

    Obviously more left in this bull, but when I see typical 4 year programs costing $200k per child today, I know a significant annual contribution is required just to get close, even with great returns.

  39. Ben

    Fortunately, the college sophomore is at a state institution, and the last one has designs on Univ of Wash. We’ll see…

    Hard to believe how cheap my own degree was compared to the job/career I have versus the incredible expense and dearth of jobs for today’s youth. I’m surprised there hasn’t been a revolt amongst the young, but I guess that what game machines and iPhones help suppress.

  40. Robert

    From Harvey Organ tonight
    Good evening Ladies and Gentlemen:

    Gold closed today (at comex closing time) at $1615.00 down $1.60 from yesterday. Silver finished the day down 14 cents to $40.55. Today was a vintage gold and silver raid. I happened to have my computer on at work. London finished early today at 11 am and within seconds, the crooked bankers sold massive quantity of future gold and silver contracts pulling the precious metals into the loss column after being up in the physical phase of the day. As I pointed out to you yesterday, the modus operandi of the bankers is now to whack the precious metals the day after they exercise options as these holders received a futures contract but they have not yet decided whether to put down 100% of the money to take delivery or pitch to another future month. The bankers try to influence their decision. We have one more day of this and then we are off to the races.

  41. Ben

    Poly, the all time high in food stamps welfare is to keep people just fed enough that they don’t organize. Give ’em peanuts while you give the elite trillions. Give ’em peanuts while you squash SS.

    I still think the big goal of the budget fiasco is to generate enough fear to screw those on fixed incomes for another few years, via rammed-down-their throats SS curtailment. The fear factor is rising, and so with it, the political cover to do what they want to do.

  42. Gary

    Harvey is a kook πŸ™‚

    Gold is just due for a daily cycle correction. It has to happen sooner or later. If the dollar is ready to rally then this seems like as good a time as any.

    BTW the selling isn’t from crooked bankers, just nervous longs.

  43. ...at ease

    Have to check with other son, as I know he puts away for his kids, so can’t duplicate on the educational efforts. I just want to put money away for them, however they choose to use it, up to them.

  44. Gary

    At Ease,
    I’m not sure what you are asking me. Markets can do anything. We all should know that by now.

    We don’t even have a swing in gold yet, nor a trend line break. Until we do there is no confirmation of a cycle top other than weakness in the miners.

  45. Felix

    Gary, May I ask if you have conditions that would lead you to abandon the miners for the intermediate cycle? Thanks.

  46. David

    Gary,

    Doc has noted that gold sentiment is now at all-time highs, which is a very bearish indicator.

    What do you make of this?

  47. George

    Gary,

    I asked this last night–you may have missed it or it may be too complex of a question to answer in a blog post. Just wondering how a “currency crisis” or “mini crisis” (as referred to in a couple of your recent reports) would affect the average person (i.e. hyperinflation?/bank holidays? etc.)?

    Thanks.

  48. DG

    David: The Hulbert gold index is dead neutral; the Rydex exposure index is dead neutral, the public opinion index shows slightly too many bulls…??

  49. aviat72

    DG:

    Doc is referring to the graph Gary showed in tonight’s letter, sentimenttrader stuff. Doc sold his silver today. Like Gary he expects stocks to correct and does not believe that PMs will escape damage given the run they have had.

    Given the tools available to add leverage these days, I do not believe miners justify the additional degree of risk. They are equities and will correlate with equity cycles. Just because they have a lower Beta than the broad market does not make them uncorrelated or negatively correlated to the broader equity market cycles.

    Beta and other metrics measure day to day performance. What we need to measure is cycle to cycle performance. Very unlikely that miners will escape a left translated cycle decline in equities.

    Traditionally investors used miners to express their bullish intent with PMs. However with the availability of ETFs and leveraged ETFs which directly invest in PMs, the risk of another dimension of uncertainty is probably unwarranted.

    While the “Deal or No Deal” drama in the US is getting the attention, the real action is going to be in Europe as the ESSF stuff unravels. We may back to 3rd edition of Greek bailout #2 and this time the markets may not give the benefit of the doubt. Very likely we are going into the DX up PM up mode soon.

  50. thedocument

    I did not say gold sentiment is at all-time highs. I noted that sentiment is at similar levels that has stopped all intermediate cycle rallies out of the 2008 low. It’s amazing how quickly one’s words can get morphed even when they are written down.

  51. William Wallace

    Keep an eye on the 20sma, it looks like gold loves to hop off that 20, unless things get panicky and we head for the 30sma. If hearts start popping out of peoples chests then the 50sma, but with a rally like we just had hearts will remain in chest.

  52. Keys

    Well I think I will be the brave soul that goes on record and says the dollar will surely rise, unless it decideds to tank. Gold will go up unless it decides to go down.

    AKA..sign me up for the wait and see, no clue right now club.

    The manufactured rally really put a stink into things I think….wondering how we would view things had that not occured.

  53. MrMiyagi

    WW,
    SLV August 35 or 36 puts for the next lottery? If the silver price holds into the open, might be worth checking out, it’s easier for you on the east coast, I’m too tired to get up at 6am on the west side.
    Again, high risk, don’t disown me, bla bla…

  54. Brian

    Farm Girl,

    There are a lot of very smart folks on the same track as you explained regarding the miners. There are some more reasons that John Hussman has explained in his weekly letter.

    Here is an excerpt from a long ago letter.

    Not surprisingly, the combination of all of these is rare but extremely powerful. In the rare instances when 1) The rate of inflation has been higher than 6 months earlier, 2) Treasury bond yields have been lower than 6 months earlier, 3) the NAPM Purchasing Managers Index has been below 50, and 4) the Gold/XAU ratio has been above 4.0, the XAU has soared at an astounding rate of 123.63% annualized. In contrast, when none of these have been true, the XAU has plunged at -53.21% annualized. That’s a gaping difference.

    http://www.hussmanfunds.com/html/gold.htm

    What we are seeing at the moment is a lot of folks that don’t care for volatility and that is completely understandable.

  55. aklaunch

    What a market… I remember when Gary was saying that gold will break 1,000 dollars. Today it did 1628.80. What a truly amazing bull market!

  56. David

    Doc,

    Please accept my apologies if I mischaracterized your statements. I was trying to be purposely vague so as not to give away subscriber-only information, but I probably should have just quoted you directly.

  57. William Wallace

    Miyagi,

    Dont disown me but I already played the lottery before the close with the Aug GLD puts I mentioned to you earlier πŸ™‚ Lets see what happens my slanted eyed friend!

  58. MrMiyagi

    WW,
    Ah.. grasshopper…
    That’s fine, if it goes down they both will but I’m thinking percentage-wise the SLV would return more.
    Next time the wife and I visit NYC (don’t know when), your chauffeur can drive us around perhaps?

  59. andybuji

    My one and only post – then back to the shadows. Economically, next year leading up to the election only contains bad news. Obama needs a very dramatic episode to hang on Repubs for the duration. Downgrade is inevitable, they want a villain and a smoking gun. They’ve been working on the narrative for the past couple of weeks, along with trial balloons (no $ in the coffers for Grandma) to gauge bullshit meters. No outcry in 6 o’clock news = pass. Dems vote down new House bill in Senate on Friday, play rope a dope and run the clock until their Senate bill comes up. But their version ends up too odious for Repubs and fractures the present fragile coalition like an egg. Shit hits fan on Tues. Market tanks, miners along for the ride big time. Outside reversal day for gold sometime next week?

    Go long – Obama’s ginormous balls, Machiavellian strategery, media as White House PR firm. QE3 in August at Jackson Hole in response to market devastation starts parabolic gold ascent.

  60. Gary

    The “Gunk’s” are right outside of New Paltz, New York. Sure you can come. I’ve never been there myself but it looks beautiful.

  61. William Wallace

    Gary,

    How will I meet up with you if I am able to make it…remember I mentioned that I will be going for another surgey around that time, its not scheduled yet though, might have to wait?

  62. Gary

    The only thing that I’ve found to have any predictive value is the SPYDER’s. And that is often early as evidenced by the last signal.

    I don’t think watching GLD money flows is going to be worth the trouble.

  63. Veronica

    The most my system has made on any one trade is approximately 120 dollars. I was waiting to sell some at 1640 since the system went to a buy at 1518, but lightened up a bit right now. It will surely rocket up now:)

  64. ALEX

    I hate to say it but I didnt even know the “GUNKS” were that beautiful , and I am from the East coast! ( Maybe because we have the White Mts in N.H., also beautiful for hiking and skiing/snowboarding).

    ‘I hate to say it’, because those pics are awesome…I wish I had gone there before my lower back injury.

  65. ALEX

    After being assisted with cycles for a yr now, I DO believe in their power at bottoms , and you can load up and ride the following move. RIGHT NOW , however, I have something else on my mind–Since cycles become left trans & right trans, turn on you and change etc…so WHERE ARE WE?

    I have been thinking a parabolic move is ahead , THEREFORE I expected THIS MOVE off of the bottom to be stronger than ,say,last summer. So I am comparing MINERS 2010 to 2011…side by side. ( I am more involved in Miners at this point).

    TODAY, I believe , will answer my question whether THIS move off the bottom is even as strong as last sumnmers. GDXJ-

    open 2 charts in side by side tabs & compare for yourself. (click charts to enlarge).

    http://www.screencast.com/t/meizPGKYrvj

    http://www.screencast.com/t/5bPNBdeLEZ

    Today could reveal weakness in the current move I.M.H.O.

    I am NOT WORRIED , I just tend to trade more in varying mkts

  66. Michael

    Quantifiable Edges, a very good statistical resource like sentimentrader.com, has gone to a very rare maximum bullishness stance with a 5 out 5 one a one day outlook on equities, and a rare 4 out of 5 on a 3-day outlook. He can be early and subject you to drawdown along the way but is not often wrong.

  67. Billy

    Gold is holding up pretty well here in the face of the rallying dollar. Gonna be interesting to see what the miners do today.

  68. Russell

    Any predictions re the SPY and Gold given the stalemate on the deficit fix at this late hour. Any equity put buyers? How will gold react?

  69. Mr. T

    Gary, I live in the Hudson Highlands, just south of the Gunks (which are only in NY BTW). If you plan a get-together, please let me know. I would really enjoy meeting up with you all.

  70. Michael

    Sophia, yes, very bullish stating that Wednesday’s sell-off was extreme enough to trigger many studies suggesting reaction to the upside. He is usually out of the market, often early on these calls and scales into positions by 1/4s and is getting 3/4 invested.

  71. TommyD

    Russell,
    Take note of a poster ‘ Andybuji’ from last night, in this tread. He makes sense, but like a passing stock tip, do you bite and run with it or do you watch the action and be ready to adjust accordingly.
    I will have some triggers established going into next week, for sure.

  72. WildShot

    “The entry level” number is what I am after as I did not buy GDX.

    Gary, could you post the GDX break even number on the sub site?

  73. Mr. T

    Gary also, if you have some spare change (the place is expensive) you should stay at Mohonk Moutain House near the Gunks. It’s an incredible please – feels like the hotel in “The Shining” but more adirondacky (if that’s word).
    http://www.mohonk.com/

  74. sophia

    Michael,

    Thanks for the info, will look at the website…
    I agree that a lot of people are calling for 1260-1220 bottom but it might never come

  75. Gary

    The only problem I have with Jason is that he only looks at statistical data. The problem is that we are in a period unlike any other time in history, with the possible exception of the Great Depression.

  76. Russell

    The guy at S&P who has the job to decide re US downgrade is probably more influential right now than the FED Chairman. Imagine the chain events that this will set off.

  77. Gary

    wild shot,
    look in the model portfolio link and you will find the entry levels.

    My suggestion is to use your personal entry-level as a stop and not let your trade turned negative.

    Let’s look at reality here people the miners are falling viciously and gold hasn’t even corrected yet. When gold does decide to correct the miners are going to take a real beating.

    I think I would suggest everybody take their profits on mining positions immediately.

  78. sophia

    Actually, I prefer waiting for the result of the debt ceiling and sell into it, rather than tryimg to get long here….getting long Gold is probably an easier bet for the time being….

  79. TommyD

    Gary and mr.T, other east-coasters,
    I am over in Scranton, PA. and can be in the Junk areas in 2 or so hours. Gary, if time allows you, maybe make a meeting for breakfast, lunch or dinner… Would be nice to have a chance to meet you, Gary, from your tracker-east followers…

  80. wmp

    Alex,

    Thanks for those charts. Likely the 50 gets taken out..sooner rather than later. Do you have an adding strategy?

  81. Alpine

    GARY –

    Thanks, I took some profits on the miners. I don’t read the boards usually, so please let us know via post when to reestablish. Thanks.

  82. Cory

    I was waiting on the big gap on the miners + a little momentum because they get sucked down with equities. I’m willing to give it a chance thru today because we are still up on the trade. Lower than today and it’s something bigger than a gap fill.

  83. Shalom Bernanke

    I added 10% more shares to each of my positions, with bids for 20% more quite far below current prices in case traders want to puke ’em out.

    Also bidding for GPL but that one doesn’t seem to want to work lower yet.

    Perhaps I’ll get filled on the rest of my orders later today or tomorrow.

  84. Cory

    If this is a dollar backtest of the triangle then the big move is ahead. If the dollar breaks up into the triangle then the 3 year low is in for me and it was a dollar gap fill on the UUP chart.

  85. sophia

    I really think that the Treasuries should selloff more violently than the equities at this stage…If the US lose their AAA, you can bet the wizz that the Treasuries will take a decent beating

  86. William Wallace

    Gary,

    Looks like your going to have a little gathering of the subs at the Gunks…I cant believe how beautiful that place is and I didnt even know it was there!

  87. Gary

    I really have no idea how far down the miners will drop. We saw a wicked correction during it. The gold just consolidated.

    Gold hasn’t even begun to move down into its cycle low yet in the minors are already taking a beating. If stocks are moving down hard and gold starts to move down I really doubt that the miners are going to the diverge. It seems more likely they will intensify the correction once gold starts to drop.

  88. William Wallace

    I think the bottom for the dollar is in, looks very similar to 08, going to help gold correct and thats about it…then gold will continue to ignore the dollar and they will rally together.

  89. sophia

    Gary, Michael,

    There must be some news or rumors about a deal…the equity market is goimg up against all odds while the precious metals are weak….

  90. Gann360

    Okay, Selling 50% of my Position in my SILVER SLV,,,, Short Here and Banking $1.32.going to let the other Half Ride. πŸ™‚

  91. Duuuuuude

    I have to admit that I am a bit perturbed. I entered my positions early…..got what I believed is a strong hand, but now it looks like we are just going to trade in and out of miners. I can handle a draw down…. just not a change in trend. If I knew miners were to be traded, I would have just settled on a single gold position.

  92. Shalom Bernanke

    Moves like this leave only two options for the trader, either we’re bidding or sitting on our hands, but selling this move is an emotional rookie mistake, IMO.

  93. William Wallace

    DUUUDE,

    Use these dips to buy if your not planning on trading in and out of miners…thats all:) Doubt there is a change in trend…just a hard correction.

  94. Shalom Bernanke

    Felix,

    I didn’t see where Gary recommended it, just in the subscriber letter than it was an option for those too heavily loaded.

    Maybe I missed it, but Gary can’t do everything for us. Only the cycles, the risk management is up to us. πŸ™‚

  95. Michael

    DG, yes.
    Duuude, to late for selling miners probably, possible to still short some GLD or futures here against your miners as partial hedge with a stop near highs 1620s, cover it when you see miners outperforming when they started being accumulated.

  96. Shalom Bernanke

    This action in the miners is not a whole lot different than any other. They’re more volatile and we all knew it. One should use it to their advantage, or they’ll get torn up.

  97. Felix

    SB,

    Completely agree, Gary can’t do everything for us. Just because you missed it, this was part of the comment only minutes ago (scroll up) that I was referring to:

    “Gary:

    …My suggestion is to use your personal entry-level as a stop and not let your trade turned negative.

    Let’s look at reality here people the miners are falling viciously and gold hasn’t even corrected yet. When gold does decide to correct the miners are going to take a real beating.

    I think I would suggest everybody take their profits on mining positions immediately.”

  98. Ivan G

    W2,

    that’s not a good point. People may have entered late and this move turns their position into loss. Definatelly not the best scenario.

  99. Gary

    Sophia,
    Yesterday was a 96% down volume day. It’s not unusual to have some kind of a relief rally after that kind of intense selling pressure.

  100. Michael

    WW, I don’t know re DUST hedge – not sure how hedged you are or your overall exposure so hard to say … GDX going for another gap fill at $54 is a possibility too …

  101. Shalom Bernanke

    IvanG,

    You’re right, except the miners have already tipped their hand on direction (higher) with the last rally. And of course, proper sizing goes a long way to shaping how we view moves.

    I’m not concerned in the least about a drawdown, but if I were too heavily invested I might feel every tick lower. πŸ™‚

  102. Gary

    funmike,
    The model portfolio will continue to hold GLD through the correction.

    My personal portfolio isn’t the same as the model portfolio, but I am holding a percentage of GLD through the correction in my personal portfolio.

  103. Duuuuuude

    Well we all know that a daily cycle low looms ahead. The last year, miners have led the way lower, but gold always led the way higher.

    http://screencast.com/t/affluence

    I am positioned to take a draw down, but a recommend to sell or prepare to sell ahead of a daily cycle low should have been made a week ago. Too late to jump out now.

  104. Russell

    I think this settles the debate “Is it the news or the cycles?” News would favor gold to rise, Cycles are in timing band for decline

  105. Gary

    Folks I suggest that you do not let your mining positions turn into a loss.

    Take a step back and look what has happened in the last two days. Gold has barely even moved yet the miners have corrected 7% and are threatening to move back below the 200 day moving average.

    Don’t fool yourself into thinking that the miners are going to bounce off of support levels. The miners are not going to stop dropping until gold finds a bottom. We’re not even sure if gold has found the top yet.

    At this rate if gold drops back down to tag the breakout level at 1578 the mining stocks could make new lows. There’s no reason to ride that kind of a draw down.

    Take your profits in mining stocks and look to buy when we get a sign that gold has finished its daily cycle correction.

  106. William Wallace

    SB,

    May get a little tiny follow up bounce off the 10sma tomorrow, and possibly monday, then cracked over the head on debt ceiling crap monday night into tuesday.

  107. Felix

    Here’s a good question for a near-term nightly report:

    When gold has finished correcting, do we want to ride back up on the same train or are miners now too risky thanks to the market?

    Too early to say now, I suppose.

  108. Shalom Bernanke

    I don’t want to shake people from following Gary’s advice, because I agree with him about the gold DCL even though I have to be a buyer on days like this.

    As far as profits vanished, yes my accounts have given back roughly 50% of the profits (I bought earlier than others), but that is not my focus and I don’t want it to start to be. πŸ™‚

    Good luck, I’ll let you guys know how it works out.

  109. deshy

    SB: If you don’t mind sharing what are you looking at in terms of purchases that you mentioned on a previous post today?

  110. Ivan G

    SB,

    good luck to you too.

    Turning profitable position to lost especially on days like last two is aa BIG emotinal crash. The last thing anyone needs knowing what’s to come next weeks.

  111. Felix

    SB,

    I appreciate your insight. I’m a bit stunned because what I mused about yesterday, that we might change course based on the day’s action, occurred! That makes me sit up and take notice.

  112. Gary

    William,
    Quite often a daily cycle correction will push the 5 day RSI levels back to oversold conditions. Gold has quite a ways to go before that condition is satisfied.

    This stubborn bullishness is usually a sign that the correction will be severe. It’s when traders are panicky and sell quick that corrections tend to be shallow.

  113. Shalom Bernanke

    deshy,

    Alright, last question then I’m getting away from the computer. I have my orders in and will let them work. Current positions, if all stop-out on me (unlikely) will only result just over 2% loss of capital.

    Orders in below the market to buy SVM, EXK, ANV, NGD, GPL, and PHYS.

    Take care, and good luck!

  114. William Wallace

    Ivan,

    I noted in an earlier post what I would have done had I chosen not to follow Gary’s advice to sell immediately, I would have sold before gold broke support at 1615. But since you asked what I would do if I were in the camp of those who are down 75% profit…I personally would hold until I gave it all back while looking to exit on a small bounce…but thats just me!!!

    So please no one listen to me…Gary is our leader πŸ™‚

  115. Gary

    While shot,
    If you want to decrease your chances of suffering a draw down then wait for gold to form a swing once it gets into the timing band for a cycle low.

  116. Hack

    The big damage was done yesterday in the miners. I see somewhat of a consolidation pattern today. This can change in an instant with a debt agreement. Then I’ll add…

  117. Gann360

    Thx Mr M

    On the 10 Min GLD Gold chart , there is a Clear H&S Top as well , We broke the neckline , and should it play out Target is $155 ish

    Something to Watch

  118. William Wallace

    Gary,

    Thats why I mentioned yesterday that by the looks of this bullishness we will see a choppy drawn out hard correction…so Im on the right track…no?

  119. Gary

    There will be a Bollinger Band crash signal on the HUI if they close at this level.

    That should be good for a bounce in the next day or two.

  120. Gann360

    i think the SPY may bounce Hard,,at any Time, the VIX Tagged the Falling Channel line Yesterday, i showed a chart of that on Twitter,and reversed lower,

    I wouldn’t short SPX Here.

  121. 86d4life

    W2,
    That`s a Big Bite. Ganns chart makes a lot of sense. Thank you Gann. I wonder too if a move to that level wouldn`t put GDX into the next gap fill. Hhmmmmm……

  122. wolf33

    QQQ—-A rally back to trend line break(my way) would be all I expect. Anything significantly greater would mean that riggers playing games. Just my opinion, not advice. What would I do there—write a naked call with stop. This is highly speculative and ill advised. Using TRIN, there is no or little fear in broad market.

  123. sophia

    Gary,

    thank you for your advice. Thanks to you the last 2 weeks have been very profitable . I am only following what you say and you seem bear on equities so I will wait

  124. wolf33

    Someone said this—Fokkowv Gary He is our leader. I could not agree more. The rest here isvjust noise, including me—especially me!

  125. David

    Gary,

    I’m out of the miners. However, with a debt ceiling deal likely to happen despite all of the posturing, we all think the S&P will jump and gold will go down. With that coupled with this early cycle correction, should we think about exiting our GLD position?
    Dave

  126. MrMiyagi

    Almost all cash here, just a small call position on SPY, nothing big.
    Took a profit on GLD, I’d rather chase here than possibly get smacked down hard.

  127. 86d4life

    W2,
    It`s hard not to do it here. Still have strong hand on my calls and will hold these through regarless. I can still think of 20 or 327 reasons this thing could turn on a dime and head into outer space. Great load up oportunity. IMHO.

  128. DG

    Gary: You wrote—
    “The miners are not going to stop dropping until gold finds a bottom. We’re not even sure if gold has found the top yet.”

    But in just the most recent decline (and many others) the miners bottomed first. I am not suggesting it is right to hold them, and I think almost everyone should do as you say, I am just questioning your comment.

  129. Silverhound

    Cory

    I’m with you on this move in the dollar being a back test, although I have it as a bear flag/triangle on my chart (I’m charting DX). Price has also fallen back below the long term down trend resistance. Have a look at the MACD also, it’s broken below the rising trendline support and will have to get back above this if the rally is to continue for real.

  130. Gann360

    William

    i am talking short term here,and than an intraday Bounce, Silver tagged my $38.30 Target and now should bounce and tag the 20 SMA on the 10 min,,

    But the end of the Month is Tomorrow,it’s very VERY important that Gold closes Below 1577 . By the looks of things , i believe we should be, but, we shall see, a close above would be Bu;;ish

  131. Gary

    If one is going to take it the Bollinger band trade follow the rules exactly.

    You can find those rules in the terminology document.

  132. Cory

    Silverhound,

    Almost all breakdowns backtest violently (it’s Tim Knight’s classic pattern) before plunging. If we are going to get a parabolic move this is the perfect shakeout to those that got in late and were overleveraged. The wall of worry has been built with the debt ceiling as well. If GDX was just filling the gap, GDXJ bounces off the 50, and gold/silver hold the 10 then this will have been a beautiful daily cycle low and a great buying opportunity. Time will tell, but now is not the time to sell.

  133. Gary

    DG,
    The last instance was an aberration not the norm. If you look at a long-term chart you will see that most of the time miners just follow gold. They bottom when it bottoms and often top prior to gold topping.

  134. Cory

    FWIW, the miners are sitting on their 50 Week MA’s, which has been solid support with the exception of last month for this run from the 08 bottom.

  135. Felix

    Gary – yes, I see re: BB crash, wait till next open. That’s good, no pressure at 3:57pm, we’ll see how it all shakes out.

  136. William Wallace

    Ivan,

    Now 1615 is resistance…this would have been the bounce I was looking for, miners recovered alittle, bounced off the 50sma…now I would sell my miners if I didnt before gold broke below 1615.

  137. William Wallace

    Gary,

    Looking at the previous Daily cycle corrections of this C-wave they all tag the 10sma on a weekly, you dont see that happening during this one do you?

  138. ...at ease

    W2, I will say to you… the hardest thing to do is just watch (the wiggles). So I understand where you are coming from and your excitement in seeing movement. I do enjoy your posts as I learn to identify moves in the market with your posts on the moving averages. However, since I have stopped watching those wiggles so closely myself and just listen to Gary and move when he says to move, I have made a whole lot more $s.

  139. aviat72

    Poly:

    sent

    We got a wonderful run of that test of naked VPOC. Retraced 78.6 of the day’s range, then retaced 50% of the move up before retracing 68% of the move down into the pit close. Perhaps it is the presence of all those hedge fund computers, but GC auctioned wonderfully today and was a technician’s dream.

    So far the weekly profile is very balanced. We broke up twice but got rejected leaving selling tails. We broke down and got rejected today leaving a buying tail.

    Unless something blows up tomorrow in Europe, I think this balance area is likely going to break down into the daily cycle correction. However this is what everyone is thinking and Mr. Market is likely to throw a curve ball (probably a last minute hick-up in the debt plan) resulting in a spike up before we roll.

  140. Silverhound

    WW

    If the daily cycle tests the 50MA on the daily chart, that will be aroung the last pivot high at 1560 or a bit below. That should give you your Weekly 10MA test.

  141. Duuuuuude

    Not sure about how valid an inverse H&S is at the top of a trend, but what I see are exhaustion candles after the gaps were filled.

  142. wolf33

    aem looks like horrible. Some others as well. AEM was a leader at one time. Tis definetly a waiting game,

    QQQ—-Did sell calls cloe to high. Just covered—worked well. Only meant to be a day trade.

  143. Keys

    just a thought…but I can’t think of a better way to support the dollar then make the world scared about the US not paying its bills….ie wait until the last minute to maximize fear.

    A debt increase, should reduce the dollar, but if there is enough stress over the US not paying its bills a debt increase may very well put an emotional relief into the dollar causing it to spike.

    Effect on gold, probably down…effect on Euro should cause euro down…on stock market, toughy, 50:50….this is looking at the reaction to a debt increase not the longer term trend.

  144. aviat72

    Did a calendar spread. Bought 155 Aug 19 puts sold 155 July 29 Puts. Expect gold to be bid till the uncertainty is resolved and then the DC to take over.

  145. Silverhound

    WW

    I can’t fault your analysis and the 30 looks like a safe entry although the first daily cycles to cross above the 50MA look like they dip to test the 50 before continuing the intermediate rally.

  146. William Wallace

    Silverhound,

    Yeah I noticed that, but I have a feeling we aren’t going to see that this daily cycle. I will be looking to jump head first at the 30. Lets see how it goes…

  147. Shalom Bernanke

    Just checking to see if I bought got any fills on my earlier orders, and nothing done on my limit orders.

    Only share acquired were the ones early in the session into the selloff. Sitting tight and leaving more orders as is, but might nibble on a few more before the close and hope for more weakness tomorrow.

  148. Ivan G

    So far this week the miners follow S&P500. And I don’t see much confidence the index won’t try breach thru July’s low ~ 1290/5

  149. Unknown

    WW

    I must have missed that in the Premium site…because it says that he is placing stops at entry points for GDX and GDXJ. The model portfolio still says 35% GLD, 25% GDX and 15% GDXJ..interesting

  150. William Wallace

    Unknown,

    It was a suggestion.

    “Folks I suggest that you do not let your mining positions turn into a loss.

    Take a step back and look what has happened in the last two days. Gold has barely even moved yet the miners have corrected 7% and are threatening to move back below the 200 day moving average.

    Don’t fool yourself into thinking that the miners are going to bounce off of support levels. The miners are not going to stop dropping until gold finds a bottom. We’re not even sure if gold has found the top yet.

    At this rate if gold drops back down to tag the breakout level at 1578 the mining stocks could make new lows. There’s no reason to ride that kind of a draw down.

    Take your profits in mining stocks and look to buy when we get a sign that gold has finished its daily cycle correction.”

    July 28, 2011 7:46 AM

  151. Unknown

    WW

    I got it….thanks…im going to continue to hold with stops in place.

    im new here but so far ive done the last three trades with gary and ive done way better than ive done in the past. So ill continue to mirror what the man does….thats why im here.

  152. Felix

    William,

    LOL not my cat but a great shot. All I’m trying to get at is, a lot of people (who have not posted likely) who read this blog probably did just what G said to do this morning – especially remembering last May. In fact, if you’re paying for his advice (suggestions), the average person is pretty likely to follow his instructions, especially urgent ones. That average person is not likely to blog here regularly (but probably pesters him with constant emails), not being a subsistence daytrader who exercises and expresses contrary sentiment constantly to pull a buck.

    I just did what he said (suggested) to do in real-time…

  153. William Wallace

    Felix,

    I hear you…and I think Gary made this, “That average person is not likely to blog here regularly (but probably pesters him with constant emails)”, perfectly obvious!

  154. Gary

    The stock market is probably moving down into an daily cycle bottom. It looks likely to penetrate the June intermediate low. The selling pressure from that could and probably will be intense.

    If gold decides to correct (it is now due for a cycle top) at the same time the combination of the two will put severe pressure on mining stocks.

    At this point I think DG has it exactly right. Just stick with gold.

  155. LowTax

    $HUI RSI getting pretty stretched to the downside. I think it continues to follow the S&P down tomorrow (SoS and today’s fade support this). But one more days should be about it before a bounce. Question is, is that the end of the down move OR the first of two parts? I lean toward the latter since gold had only begun to move down.

  156. wolf33

    Keep the Peace folks—Tough mkt due lots to crap in Washington.

    As said earlier they will just kick the can further down the road, per usual.

    Support Ron Paul anyway you can. Be decades to turn this big ship arround. but He can get it started!

    Peace and good luck to all.—-Follow Gary!

  157. William Wallace

    I just want to point out…take a look at the 3/9/11 candle on a gold daily, that was the second test of the 10sma after cycle topped (like today if we indeed have already topped)…look what happened the next day.

  158. Edwin

    William Wallace – you reply to every post. boy are you enthused.

    anyways don’t get to confident on TA levels.

    they are just lines in the sand.

    i feel a massive reversal coming in the equity market. I been accumulating some SPY.

    the US dollar has been throwing everyone for a loop.

  159. Poly

    “86,

    I hear you, but that’s because your a permabull like Poly…J/K!!!”

    Catching up. WW, you have not been on this blog long enough to know then. I just don’t flip flop between positions and state of mind, like some πŸ™‚ When my cycles and/or setup tell me to be long or aggressive, I go hard. The start of this IT cycle had me very excited, so I went long early and hard.

  160. William Wallace

    Poly,

    A couple weeks ago I was talking about my 8 year old asking me who Poly & Gary was, because he seen your names on the screen…I told him “they are my best friends because I learn so much from them” he said “thats what friends are for” Enough said πŸ™‚

  161. William Wallace

    Edwin,

    Enthused? Have you ever gone to work and just watched everyone talk to each other?? I enjoy talking to everyone on the blog, because I really appreciate them for their knowledge, intuition and wits…In all honesty I feel at home here even though I have not been here that long yet (Poly made sure he made that clear…lol) and already I feel I owe many here so much gratitude that if I can maybe point something out that someone may have missed to benefit them, I will.

  162. DG

    I am drowning in work and other activities right now and for the next two months or so. As such I am not going to be able to post as often as I have in the past. I say this because I hate posting only one side of a trade. I mentioned I sold a fair bit of DGP and all my GDX the past few days. Well, today I bought back all the GDX and more at the 240DMA (57.25) as well as some of the DGP I sold. I have a mental break-even in at cost on GDX at least (haven’t decided on DGP yet.) The problem with posting one side of a trade is I mentioned the sell and not the buy back and feel bad if anyone sold and missed the return (not that I am sure that was the bottom’ it’s just that telling 1/2 the story seems lame). Just keep in mind that I may not post the other side of whatever I mention (the buy back on a sell, or the exit on a long or short). Sorry.

  163. Duuuuuude

    Gary,

    I don’t say a lot on this blog unless I really feel like I have a contribution to make or have a question. I do not use this forum for letting off steam. I have to admit however I am still shaking my head trying to wrap my arms around what it is we are doing. It seems to me that unless you believe gold has topped and this is just going to turn out to be some kind of left translated daily cycle which would mean the Intermediate cycle is now going to be lower, we should stick with the plan you laid out when you first made the trade recommendations. It makes me nervous that you suddenly jumped off the bull. I mean, we are only into the 4th week of this intermediate cycle.

    You have also stated rather plainly that if gold goes higher, the miners will go higher. You have also stated that the miners are undervalued against gold.

    I feel like if you had made the recommendation a week ago to sell our mining positions…. that gold and miners had an incredible run and you expect the daily cycle low to be rather severe, it might be a good idea to go ahead and take profits and re-enter at the end of this cycle, I could have understood. This today makes no sense to me unless you are suddenly feeling that gold has gone as high as it is going to for this Intermediate cycle. I feel these trade recommendations on the miners are inconsistent with he way you have trained us to trade these previously.

    I know this sounds like a rant, but really I am feeling very confused now. I felt like I was becoming confident in cycle trading but I feel like I have no idea now. Probably a little more preparation in advance for such a move would have been helpful.

    I still love you and everybody here…. No offense meant. I just needed to say it.

  164. Gary

    Dude,
    Here’s the thing. I don’t think we need to let a winning trade turn into a loss.

    The miners are not acting like they should. Gold hasn’t even corrected yet but miners have suffered a high-volume 7% retracement.

    Gold is in the timing band for a correction. Sentiment has become extreme. For this to continue higher it is going to be necessary for gold to suffer a heavy correction. Without a sharp correction to clear sentiment we can kiss our parabolic rally goodbye.

    A severe daily cycle correction in stocks along with a sharp correction in gold could conceivably drive mining stocks to new lows.

    At the moment we have a profit in those two trades. With the sword of a stock market cycle low and soon to be gold correction hanging over us I just don’t see the need to stubbornly hang onto a trade that has become much more fragile than it should have at this point.

    Yes I know the miners rebounded off the 200 day moving average, but with gold still at $1615 they never should have broken the $570 support in the first place.

    Now if you want to ride your miners back to break even or all the way through the corrective process even if it does go to new lows, that’s your decision.

    I’m not saying it’s right or wrong I’m just saying that the miners are not doing what they should be doing and if that’s the case then the reason I took the trade in the first place has been negated.

    I can assure you I will be buying both GDX and GDXJ again but I’m going to have to see a clear daily cycle correction before I do so.

    It doesn’t matter to me whether that daily cycle correction occurs at a lower point than today or higher, I can buy either one.

    I’m just not comfortable holding onto a trade that’s not acting correctly, especially this late in the daily cycle and with the stock market acting so poorly.

    In tonight’s report I will transfer capital from miners into GLD.

  165. deshy

    Gary: Thanks for the explanation. Love or hate it I appreciate the unbiased reassessment of your position. I often lose money because I get “wed” to a position and fail to look back to see whether the reason the position was taken is still valid–or worse generally assume it is when it clearly isn’t. Thanks again.

  166. ...at ease

    BB trade question.
    I have never tried a BB trade, so would like to know what I would be looking to buy at and direction, if miners are on a downward trend, is this an expected trend reversal trade?
    Appreciate any insight from anyone considering this trade so that I can evaluate and learn whether I money or paper trade. Thanks in advance!

  167. ...at ease

    Deshy,

    I have to agree, the hardest thing is letting go of a good trade that has treated you well. So an understanding of why the change helps you make the move quicker as needed.

    It takes awhile to just catch on to what Gary is doing, as we make the moves, we learn along the way (hindsight is 20/20).

    Gary stresses patience, controlling your emotions. Go with the flow of the market changes and you will have a much easier time making money.

  168. Hack

    New sell targets for miners: I will use $11 for EXK with $40 for SLW. (Earlier this year SLW hit $45 three times, EXK hit $12 three times, definitely a sell signal the last time around.) We won’t see $45 and $12 again for quite a while.

  169. Duuuuuude

    Gary I appreciate your thoughtful reply and it makes sense. Without the benefit of access to some of the information you have to look at I have no idea. My lingering question though is what was it that changed in the last week. If I exit now, it is about a break even proposition for me. If I had exited last week, I could have salvaged a decent profit. At the time I took the trade, I felt it was early enough to provide a strong hand status.

  170. gold silver troll

    this really sucks – the sentiment in gold in mid 70s for gold and 80s for silver..even if a rally happens, it’s gonna be super volatile with wild swings in both directions…the easy money has been made

    I really hope we get a shake out and gold goes down to 1550-1575 in a week or so

  171. Gary

    Dude,
    If my crystal ball was working I would’ve told you to take profits last week the ;~)

    The risk is that the stock market is moving down into an intermediate cycle low not a daily cycle low.

    Intermediate cycle lows create intense selling pressure that pulls everything down with it.

  172. Shalom Bernanke

    I’ll take advantage of this decline by buying at different levels over several days if possible, rather than trying to sidestep a pullback. Bet size that matches my personality allows for this.

    I don’t know what will happen to miners any more than anybody else, but selling something that is overall strong into temporary weakness is not a formula for accumulating wealth. Keep in mind I’m not calling any sort of bottom, all I’m doing is taking shares from those that get nervous. Only a week ago everybody was throwing money in (and late), asking Gary if they “should just get some now”? Today, most here are selling their miners.

    If they go lower but stay above my stop-out, I’ll consistently add, and if they rally from here and I don’t add, at least I have more shares than I did yesterday. We will NEVER get it perfect price wise, but a trader can get his execution down to a tee if he works on what he is able to control, but prices is not one of them.

  173. andybuji

    For the statisticians: assuming the model portfolio parameters on a 10K account, buying on the close for both initial and added positions on 7/5 and 7/12, exiting GDX and GDXJ today so that no money was lost on the added positions and profit was preserved on the initial entries:
    GDX + 2.86%
    GDXJ + 2.00%

    Being a newbie to cycle trading, it seems more art than science to me. As such, I defer to Gary’s experience and gut check. Also, I appreciate his personal trading “flaw” which apparently skews to profit taking.

    I’ve lived the bit about how to become a millionaire by trading: easy, start with two million. I now prefer the old Rothschild quote: “I never buy at the bottom and I always sell too soon.”

  174. Shalom Bernanke

    Those who sold today would be able to get out at similar prices at some point in the future, even if we go lower first. The bull would let you out.

    However unlikely it is that prices rise from here, at least you’d still have your position if they should.

    Just my thoughts on the topic. πŸ™‚

  175. High 5

    Markets should sell off huge tomorrow since many won’t want to hold through the weekend with the charade debt ceiling panic going on.

  176. DG

    I suspect that “everyone” knows we will be down tomorrow ahead of the weekend and that that’s why we went from +75 to -75 this afternoon. I don’t believe that those who sold today to get out before Friday can sell again tomorrow. Tomorrow may surprise with an up day IMO.

  177. funmike

    at ease

    If I understand the bb crash trade, the theory is if something gets stretched quickly below the lower bollinger band it could pop back up over the next 15 days and make for a short term profitable trade. (If I am mistaken, then someone correct me.) Gary lays out the rules of the trade in the premium section. However, it is not without risk. There is always the chance of further downside. So if one took the trade he would be counting on the miners popping back up. For myself, I don’t have enough confidence of it working out and don’t want to give my emotions a roller coaster ride to find out at this time.

  178. Russell

    Gary,
    Is there anything that you see that makes you cautious about the setup we’re in with Gold ie week 3 of a typically 24 week Intermediate cycle that you expect to be left translated?
    In other words is further rise in gold dependent on a falling dollar, Fed action,or Euro breakdown?

  179. Gary

    One thing that makes me nervous is the potential huge head & shoulders pattern forming in mining stocks.

    There is the possibility that gold is in a stretched intermediate cycle instead of a new intermediate cycle.

    Sentiment is suggesting that could be true.

    I think we need to see the dollar break the May low before we can be completely confident this is a parabolic final move.

  180. Russell

    If today was day 1 of the dollars daily cycle, would a close below 73.7 on the USdx be enough to think the dollar would favor a continued move in gold?

  181. Ivan G

    Gary,

    is it reverse H&S? I was looking at it today also but we did not have such a big down move to proceed it. Or we don’t need one?

  182. Gary

    Russell,
    First we would have to have confirmation that we just put in a daily cycle low. If that Lo gets violated then the odds are good that this intermediate cycle will break below the May bottom.

    Ivan,
    Expand your chart to about three years and you will see the head and shoulders pattern that I’m talking about.

  183. Ivan G

    I see. Not unpossible. And that will send S&P to its 200 DMA. Then we’ll have our QE3. Right on time after the bankers return from their summer vacations πŸ™‚

  184. LowTax

    Shalom, you crack me up.

    Gary, what about the dollar simply testing the underside of the upward sloping trendline (from May) it violated 5 days ago? That would fit with gold resilience. Of course the market would have to rocket upward very soon to let miners escape your latest scenario… pins and needles, no?

  185. JEFFtheFLEA

    crrraaappp i dont like talking about parabolic c wave and a d wave in the same night . sigh
    o wait lets throw in a sidways move like over the winter so all my shit can expire and we did not go anyware.
    i did roll my puts up and locked in a little profit

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