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“The word ‘bubble’ has been used to the point of tedium over the last few years.
Bubbles have been noticed in a variety of areas; some have already burst (stocks 2000), some are still deflating (housing), others are still waiting to burst like bonds.
But the biggest bubble of all, indeed the cause of all the other bubbles, is never mentioned. This is the bubble in paper money. When that bursts then watch out.
The bursting of the paper money bubble will signal not only the collapse of paper money, but a massive rise in unemployment and a consequent breakdown in law and order. It is a rather glum subject that is in many people’s thoughts, but has yet to migrate to their tongues.
The bursting of the paper money bubble will signal in no uncertain terms that the welfare party is over and that The State Almighty was just one more false god.
Whilst the road will be hard it, will at least be a road leading to a better future of honest money and more honest people, not the scruffy path to perdition that we currently trudge.”
I love how people are already talking about ‘missing the move.’ Gary got us in 150 points ago and still has part of the portfolio in gold. It seems like half of you are highly leveraged, anyway (I certainly am), so even at a 10% allocation you’re still making big bucks without a dangerous exposure.
I also shorted copper at $4.42 (now at $4.33) so I have nothing to complain about.
No joke, the gaps in gold and silver today and yesterday mean that this run is over. Any stretch of another day to 5 days is a total gamble. When the markets close, the gaps will be booked, and the game of fill ’em will start.
There’s unlimited capital available to the banks. They will kill the recent PM longs, like the Syrians do the kids protesting on the streets in Hama. No cares, no thoughts. Just murder.
I agree…futures ran out of steam at 1670
Your Gold analysis in your audio clip sounds quite different than your analysis in last night’s report. In the audio, it sounds like you’re looking for a temporary cycle low to occur in the coming week. In the report, it sounded like you were expecting a more severe intermediate type low to occur in Gold.
I guess you are just waiting to see what happens in the dollar to make your final assessment on it…
Sophia’s no fool. She shorted in the a.m.
I second that Slumdog. You’ve got these 6’6″ fit sporty prop traders with a personal night trader for the Asian session and institutional desk types and their HF buddies all interlinked investing and trading each others personal money armed with quant geeks and supercomputers that see how the rest of the market is positioned with unlimited capital vs.
Ameritrade $2.99 all you can eat mom and pop trend-follower with stops on the other side …
yes I continue to think this is about the dollar. If the dollar breaks that cycle low it would provide a temporary lift to stocks and that would be the driver for this parabolic see wave move.
I sure would like to see a sharp correction in gold first before it begins.
Slumdog and Michael
Those posts were hilarious and you both are so right.
Keep up the good work Gary
two months ago I wrote here that the dollar low isn’t in and that the dollar will likely break the lows and might crash 15% before putting in a low and recovering. I suggested that the low would be in by late September. You said that was impossible and that the dollar put in a 3-year-cycle low. Now you are seeing the cycle low ahead instead. You kept saying that silver will likely see $21. I wrote it will probably bottom out at $31. You wrote that most certainly I will be wrong. That was in May. About stocks you said that they will break down, but they went up short term instead. As a response you wrote they might need more time to top out and that we might see slightly new highs before dropping; stocks went down instead. You have been expecting gold to go into a D wave free fall since late April. Gold has gone up substantially since then. You changed your mind and suggested that Gold will have a last leg up in it’s C wave. A few days ago you then suggested that gold instead ready to have a severe correction right about now (no C wave parabola); you sold at a low and gold (and silver) went up quite impressively since then. In my book these are wrong calls. Some times though when I read this blog, I am thinking I must be dreaming all of the above, because you and some of your loyal followers sound like you are right for the most part. I honestly couldn’t say that’s true. Also, you are running a financial blog, so it should be a given that you and your very loyal followers let people measure you based on the quality of your calls, and voice some critique if the quality of your calls does not convince. You get a lot of rave when you are right, but when you are wrong you got to take a little heat as well, and so should your loyal followers. I don’t understand the emotional reactions that some people here show when there is any sort of critique.
Btw, I believe that the trouble simply is that nobody can successfully day-trade precious metals and that whoever tries will underperform buy & hold in the long run (that is for the remainder of this bull in PMs). To me it seems obvious, that there is no way in hell that anyone, at the end of this bull, will have made more money in trading in and out of gold or silver. I think the best strategy is a combination of buy & hold core and some very rare trades.
You also say often that you are making people money. I don’t argue that, but I believe that whoever follows the cheerleaders on kingworldnews, absent of any complex cycle work, would have made more money and also makes more money currently. I don’t think it is a big deal stating that. PMs are in a bull and there is no reason and no gain in day-trading them. It’s a losing proposition. It seems fact to me.
My call yesterday and today on the direction of the DJIA is nullified by the failure of May to have been an “inside” month to that of April. May was a higher high. There’s no setup at this time on the system I was suggesting would drive the price to 10000. Nothing yet.
posted on the last thread:
“The political imperative of the 20th century was the attempt to turn back millennia of rising consciousness and social progress and to force mankind back to the level of obedient, Palaeolithic dirt-scratchers dependent for their survival upon great and mysterious forces that only experts could comprehend. Needless to say the push was not initiated by the newly freed working people themselves, though the ignorant were quickly co-opted to the cause through welfare handouts.”
My God, that passage took my breath away.
I follow your comments closely and find that I am in very close agreement with all you say. It’s a bonus to find your sage nuggets of social commentary mixed in with the market analysis. I’m a fan! Will check out the website you linked. Many thanks!
Those that follow the cheerleaders will get caught in the D-Wave decline. And the D-Wave will be much worse than what happened in May.
I’m going to error on the side of caution so that I can keep my profits.
I maintain my position, the time to step on the gas isn’t after a $40 rally and 21 days into a daily cycle. Once we get a correction that breaks the daily cycle trend line and scares the crap out of everyone, that’s the point where I will be willing to take large positions, if, and only if the dollar is breaking down.
Obviously you are unhappy with your subscription. I refunded your total subscription price for you once before but then you resubscribed. If you don’t like the service I’m providing why do you keep subscribing?
Is it just so you can keep pestering me?
Euro is a shitty dog while dollar is a pissy dog. Employment report and Italy will be headlining on Friday. I think your view of a sharp correction of gold and a rising dollar will be vindicated by then. Thanks always for your guidance.
Last night I mentioned for gary to take a look at gold 3/1/11 on a daily, looks like 3/2/11 is where we might be today.
Nothing but gold all day long on CNBC
please don’t mock me…I am like Elaine, lost my confidence last April.
BUT, people on this blog are such a nice bunch of people sharing their ideas, charts etc…I am crap at charts, so I felt this morning that I should post my little idea…I played the other way round last week with Doc’s help, so I have a bit of ammunition for surviving entry levels for a while…
I feel on this blog that we are all in together…As I said before, if from my little kitchen I can beat the Goldman Sachs and JPM of this world, I will be proud of myself!
basil, there’s a sense of nagging which means one may not have well individuated in the archaic psychological time window.
Talking to your parents and a shrink will at least frame the issue. Then you won’t expect so much of others, even those who you pay for advice.
Not to be over exposing, but I’m aware as it’s a common phenomenon and I’ve paid my dues to get at least a window perch seat on the anger and anxiety and helpless feelings which emanate from that very early experiential reaction.
anyone shorting gold or silver at close today?
Your last sentence makes my point. I personally just find the ‘Gary is a superstar’ cheers annoying; and you seem to believe it yourself.
I have not ‘kept resubscribing’. I resubscribed once. I don’t mind if you take me off the subscription again.
Sophia, I wasn’t mocking you.
Apologies if you perceived so. I read your postings and think about them in a constructive way.
As to losing your confidence, that happens when you don’t have your own way of understanding the markets.
And the challenge is simple. It’s a question of how to arrive at your own beliefs and believe in them.
That requires real work.
I want to hear Toby bark on an interview.
you cannot even write English, so don’t even try sounding intelligent, when really you are an idiot.
Seems you’re upset with Gary for changing his mind, no?
When the market does something I am not expecting, I review my analysis and sometimes that results in my changing my mind.
When the market does something different from what you are expecting, what do you do?
(For me personally, I am GLAD that Gary changes his mind about future market expectations when market conditions change. It would suck if he didn’t. JMO though.)
Thank Slumdog! And thanks Michael as well, just read the comments now as kids on vacation so quite tricky to follow up…
Gary, just ditch the Basil guy, he was beneath everything back in April…WE don’t need whinners here!
At the end of the day, everybody os responsible for his/her own trades, so you enter and go out when you feel like you should…
Keep the good work for us please
I am here as a subscriber for Gary’s analysis.
I am not here for Gary to hold my hand, wipe my ass and tell me when and what to buy and sell.
I am aware that no one gets it right 100% of the time, no one can control external events.
I am also here because this blog’s community is intelligent, analytical, informative and friendly.
No one has a gun to my head.
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well said Mr M!
how is your basement work doing? Sold the house yet?
Hah! Opinions are like assholes… 🙂
Fed’s Kohn Says Will Give “Very Serious Consideration” To QE3
The commentary today is entertaining!
BTW, AKAM back and filled…(almost)
If this is a parabolic move you should buy the dip now.
Basil, it’s getting a little tedious. Value added opinion and advice is what we’re after. Read your last comment and think what positive contribution you have made. Stop whining. It’s the easiest thing in the world to look back at what has happened and criticise if you find it disagreeable. When you accept this, you will start to make progress.
I have framed it, ran 90% of the wiring, at the plumbing stage and expect 4-6 more weeks…
Which means I better haul ass!
The way I view trading, regardless of where you get information, the trade becomes yours as soon as you put your money in it. It is no longer Gary’s or anybody elses. If the trade works in your favor, then you can pat yourself on the back or tell your buds about it. If it works against you, then you own that also. This is all about managing risk, whether you are long or short and Gary cannot do that for you.
Look: Every trader/investor needs to take responsibility for his own decisions. I have been doing this longer than most of you have been alive. I have found “guru” after “guru” who had “the answer.” And you know what? Not one of them did. It started for me with Joe Granville over 30 years ago. Now I understand that each guy has weaknesses and, as a separate point, will be wrong sometimes. So what? You look at everything you think is important and weight them appropriately based on YOUR analysis. If you overweight Gary in an area where he has demonstrated a trading-style bias (yes every human being has biases and blind spots) that’s YOUR decision not his. He is great at certain things. That’s where I use my subscription. I am probably a better day-to-day trader than he is. Why the hell would I follow his advice there? And if you are not a good trader then YOU have work today. Relying on him to do the work for you will not help you in the long run. This is a tough game. He cannot swing the bat for you, but he can show you how to stand, how to swing, etc. Crying about being light for this move will only damage your progress as a trader. What did YOU do wrong? What do you need to learn? What are your weaknesses and how do you plan to overcome/compensate for them?
Forgive the rant, but Gary bashing for getting out early is absolutely ridiculous from my perspective. He even told you he’d get out early after the AGQ debacle. What’s the surprise here? Alex, Poly and a number of others stayed long and posted they did. YOU chose whom to follow, right? [this is not written to anyone in particular, BTW] O.K.—enough—sorry if this was too long.
you cannot even write English, so don’t even try sounding intelligent, when really you are an idiot.:”
Angry comedy, and obviously channeled but not yet examined. The day will come or the undertaker, one or the other and y’a know, it dudn’t matter which first.
Slumdog, I find your posts quite interesting
Just out of curiosity: what’s your call on where we’re going in the next leg up/down from this hanging around at 1666? How high up and/or how deep down in your view? (I’m not trying to pin you down, just interested in your current view as opposed to Gary’s.)
I “invest” from the kitchen too.
I really appreciate your coming forth and, frankly, your willingness to share vulnerability spells strength in my book.
I don’t know if you saw my post in the previous thread, but I pointed out some interesting similarities between this move and some previous major GLD tops. Do you place any odds on a D wave decline starting within the next week or do you think it’s pretty at this point of the cycle timing band?
And, (Sophia) congrats on the short last night: Looks as if it might have been magnificently timed! Gotta wonder what you’re cooking in that kitchen!!
I continue to think this will be about the dollar. If the dollar is doing what I want at the next cycle low I will have no problem getting aggressively long.
“I am not here for Gary to hold my hand, wipe my … and tell me when and what to buy and sell.”
A common theme from traders who post here; yet that is what SMTP purports to do in fact, and it also happens live occasionally. It has also been suggested that maintaining an ideal portfolio is the problem, because it gives exactly those signals you yourself are not in need of.
Just keep doing what gary does and dont do what he says, like you have been…simple
Thank you so much, I feel like most here consider me to be an irritant. I can’t seem to stop posting that which I believe is interesting and maybe even helpful to some who search for deeper answers in these interesting times.
I sometimes think many here are afraid of the red pills, not that I can administer them. Just in general. The drive for money is what makes us take the blue pills.
Ironically, I believe, it’s the drive for money that will end in such miserable squalor for the lucky. Those who seek deeper meaning, rather than riches, will receive riches, through understanding.
Trinity: I know why you’re here, Neo. I know what you’ve been doing… why you hardly sleep, why you live alone, and why night after night, you sit by your computer. You’re looking for him. I know because I was once looking for the same thing. And when he found me, he told me I wasn’t really looking for him. I was looking for an answer. It’s the question that drives us, Neo. It’s the question that brought you here. You know the question, just as I did.
Neo: What is the Matrix?
Trinity: The answer is out there, Neo, and it’s looking for you, and it will find you if you want it to.