58 thoughts on “PORTFOLIO CHANGE

  1. Gary

    If the runaway move was going to collapse it would have continued down. Gold didn’t do that, so I don’t think we have to worry too much about significant further downside.

    I have a pretty good idea of what I think is unfolding in the precious metals market. I’ll elaborate in tonight’s report.

  2. St. Deluise

    SPY target for me remains the 123 level or the 1597 day SMA.

    from there would have to see the dollar (remember that thing?) move lower to keep me playing around in either stocks or gold. and not only has the dollar been haaaaanging around in the same spot through all this it is being noticably accumulated since the market fell off. matter of time.

  3. Slumdog

    Again, from the outlier, we’re forming a “W” to return to this morning’s high, after we close the NY Pit and maybe until NYSE close.

    Then just eyeballing it, it’s upshegoes.

  4. Slumdog

    There are a lotta guys overseas who are long who need to be scourged before it goes back up. This price range should cause capitulations there, too. Then the slate will be clean. Poly thought this morning it would take some days to get this done.

    TZ, we’re listening to y’a. You’re a lone voice, but you’re smart as hell; so we’re ears.

  5. TZ(8155)


    There is plenty of historical precedent for gold to have sold off and then rallied like it did, before continuing lower as I argue this week.

    We will know shortly, but saying it should have ‘continued down’ instead of bounced for a day or two and THEN continued down is not evident in past peaks.

  6. TZ(8155)

    I want to clarify that I’m not saying we will go lower than last week on THIS week, but I think we will at least go TOWARDS the low this week and eventually break lower within the next few weeks.

    Also, I’m not sitting here super confident that we aren’t going higher. I just dont think we are, but I’m not buying puts or shorting or whatever. And I’m definitely open to being wrong.

    My comments are just my working view of things at this time. Buyer beware for those who want to trade off them.

  7. Danno

    Gold up? Gold down? What about the 3rd possibility… months of annoying sideways chop.

    I’m positioned for up. I’m protected for down. I don’t care which way. I just want it to rock and roll either direction. But I admit I am a little concerned about sideways because that will hurt my hedge (not to mention drive me nuts).

  8. TZ(8155)

    >Gold up? Gold down? What about the 3rd possibility… months of annoying sideways chop.

    HIGHLY unlikely in the current environment.

  9. Gary

    Well I don’t know about months, but I think we are in for some sideways consolidation in gold to work off these stretched conditions.

    Like I said, I will explain in tonight’s report.

  10. MrMiyagi

    Gary, I`m looking at the miners action as well as gold and silver, they are not instilling too much confidence in me but these buggers are not my forte, I will take your word for it.

  11. Gary

    Pretty unlikely I think. If it was the miners would not be holding up as well as they are.

    I think we saw the lows on Thursday..

  12. deshy

    Gary: If we’re looking to add to miners in the future, should we be keying off the price action in the market or gold? Thx

  13. DP

    wolf33 —

    I am holding UNG for more than a year and still loosing money with it.

    Fund is losing it’s value due to contango being compared to physical gas.

    There is an excess of natgas in the USA at the moment and it’s un-correlated with the oil.

    I am wondering why it is not widely used for cars, just like in Europe.

    Well, natgas prohibition is politically motivated decision, I guess.

  14. wolf33

    dp–well aware of erosion. this is a short term swing for me. actually made$ on most but some losses as well. overall have made $. one way or other i likely will be out within a week. win or lose.

  15. wolf33

    i ran from anything with gold in it this morning. internals not so strong – miners were. but you need at least a short term bull trend to make $. qqq-s doing well.

  16. youks

    Gary, I’m starting to like the call on miners more and more. Gold is bleeding profusely, silver is to a lesser extent and yet GDX is still holding strong, minimum panic selling, small loss and even GDXJ has been positive for the most part. When gold finishes consolidating, Euro and USA mess resurfaces miners should explode. We are approaching that season that favors miners.

    – ghost

  17. DP

    Still holding 4x leveraged first position of the model portfolio.

    Have to admit that I wouldn’t be taking it on my own.


  18. wolf33

    dp—iyes but when—on a long term basis there is a better play in canada—forget the symbol.

    if gas for trucks-cars etc clne might be better—but even there -no trend—like a yo yo—at least swings a little bigger. i do not own clne at this time.

  19. wolf33

    DP said…
    Still holding 4x leveraged first position of the model portfolio.

    Have to admit that I wouldn’t be taking it on my own.


    i agree—even Gary thinks we go to hell in a handbasket.—this was an undelievable call on his part.

  20. DP

    Wolf33 —

    Frankly, I took NG position expecting fundamentally the new administration will take advantage of new cleaner burning domestic fuel.

    Never happened, and that’s irrational, just like preventing the recession to develop it’s own ways and bailing out people responsible for the crisis..

  21. Gary


    Extreme moves begat extreme moves.

    We should see one very convincing bear market rally over the next month or month and a half.

  22. manuel


    How many trades are open in same time, in average?
    Trade stocks or Options, or others?

    What use to trade, Techinical, Fundamental, mechecanical trade?


  23. KAL


    Sign up. Now is a great time. You can catch a great trade and prep for an even bigger one soon. Gary will steer you straight… I’ve been subscribed since April and it’s been totally worth it. Plus, you’ll learn a ton from some great posters here!

  24. makutaku


    “How many trades are open in same time, in average?”
    – I’d say 3.
    – ETFs. Rarely options. Sometimes a big silver miner.
    – Trades mostly based on cycles, sentiment, on top of fundamentals.

    But I think you are asking wrong questions. You should ask:
    Will I make money ?
    answer: very very probable, as long you don’t hesitate or over leverage.

  25. MarkMarin


    Recommendations are usually in percentages of your portfolio that you are willing to risk. For instance, he may set the model portfolio to allocate 20% of funds to a particular ETF. Positions range from none, if there isn’t a recommendation, to as much as four (during the silver run up earlier this year).

    Gary recommends ETFs or stocks, but some followers are more aggressive and use options.

    Gary’s recommendations are based on cycles and provide fairly low risk entry points. He’s the best I’ve seen at identifying bottoms, when to be aggressive or a bit tentative. Currently, he has 2 positions with about a combined 50% allocation.

    If you follow his model portfolio, you will profit many times more than the cost of subscribing.

    Good luck!

  26. ALEX


    So sorry man, I was where the hurricane hit in New England-I took my tablet to Starbucks for wifi to trade, but was unable to post here.

    As a matter of co-incidence ( and DG could verify since I mentioned it in a note) I had been looking at NXG Last wk. The chart looked ready to pop- on a 3 yr wkly I noticed it popping on Volume and pulled back to $3, so I bought a LOT.

    After this mornings deal was announced pre mkt, I decided to basically sell both around the open-losing $1/ share on AUQ and making $1.20 on NXG. Since I had double the # shares of NXG…I just decided to cash out both & take the profits and just see what happens.

    I was in a few acquisitions in the past (BGO, FRG, KGC,ETC)and they tend to stop moving for a while,so I cash out immediately .

    IF I was looking at AUQ now…I see the heavy volume sell off and think it will take time to repair itself. It has support at $11, but I cant say it’ll hold…If I owned here ,I might wait to sell the bounce,or just hold until it stabilizes? It could bounce to retest the 50sma?


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