288 thoughts on “PORTFOLIO CHANGE

  1. Éamonn

    silver seems to be getting some legs under it. I’d say once it gets going $50 will be no problem to it, unlike the last attempt

  2. David

    Selling miners here — some at a loss. I have a handful left, but I am assuming that any coming wipeout in gold will take them down as well.

    This has been a great spring, followed by a horrible summer — the death of a thousand cuts. I would have been better off taking the summer off.

    I never would have thought that I would witness a parabolic top in gold and make absolutely nothing from it.

  3. Gary

    Silver is a very thin, very emotional market.

    If the public is now ready to buy into the parabolic move in gold it’s predictable that they would pile back into the silver market, especially now that the charts are showing a higher high.

    I don’t think I would put too much emphasis on the charts at this point. It is so late in the daily cycle that we are going to get a move down soon. Cycles can stretch but they never fail.

    You are just kidding yourself if you think gold is going to go straight up forever. When it does decide to move down into a daily cycle correction it’s going to take silver with it. And all the people that bought this breakout are going to get whipsawed out of their position.

  4. Gary

    We did make money off of the gold move. And we made some more money today.

    What we are trying to do is control greed so that we don’t do serious damage to our portfolio by getting caught when the parabola collapses.

    Eventually we will get a D-Wave decline. We will be able to take large positions at that bottom and ride the A-Wave which should probably gain as much if not more than this parabolic move, and the risk will be much much less.

  5. Gary

    Once were sure the intermediate bottom is in one can take a large position in the stock market and probably make almost as much as they would have if they had ridden the entire parabolic move in gold.

    You are assuming a missed opportunity will never be recovered.

    There will always be another opportunity.

  6. David


    I’m not complaining. Well, I am complaining, but my complaint is not directed at you.

    I was hesitant to get into the miners trade, so I staged into it and wound up getting in late. I also hesitated to sell on the QQQ trade, and wound up taking a beating yesterday.

    In both cases, I would have had a substantial profit if I had followed your timing, but I was skeptical/complacent. As a result, I have a modest loss for the summer — less than %3, mind you, but I never would have thought I’d be in the red when gold was going parabolic.

    In the final analysis, I move too slowly to be an effective trader. I have only made money as a buy-and-hold investor. The lesson is learned. I will wait for the D-wave bottom, buy then, and walk away for several years.

  7. David

    By the way, from what I see in the bond market, we are going to have one hell of a D-wave.

    We are clearly on the verge of a deflationary vortex. 10-year bonds yielding under 2%? Incredible.

    I suspect that gold will be the last thing to go, as it was in 2007, before deflation really takes hold. The action in the miners feels very much like it did then. At some point the dollar will rally huge and we will see a massive drop.

  8. St. Deluise

    certainly an ugly looking weekly candle in SPY

    ambiguous close.

    chart-wise it looks like we’ve got lower to go, i guess i just question whether or not they’re going to allow it to get to that level since by there most of the bears will have covered.

    i’m really over-thinking it though. i’ve got a system that is neutral here. what i SHOULD be doing is following that system instead of picking bottoms. tough lesson this week.

  9. Shalom Bernanke


    The miners are weak, no doubt. However, I’ll buy yours early next week if you still have ’em.

    If I was not in position to take more pain, I’d have to make the same call and exit, but if one can stay on board until stocks find some support, miners are the only place to be. Not for the initial rally where the S&P jumps 5-6% in the first day, but over the next several months. It’s not like we didn’t see the potential downside when we bought.


    For a guy who claims to only come around every once in awhile, you pop up here quite often, and usually to try and rub sand in people’s eyes. Nice going, you must be a lot of fun at parties. 🙂

    I’m still long all my stuff except the 70% of PHYS I sold over the last week+. Some up, some down, but no concerns. I’m expecting (or prepared) for stocks moving 10% lower and bringing miners part of the way with them. Here’s another thing I know, fellas like you don’t make money so get their “payday” chastising others.

    Have a great weekend everybody. 🙂

  10. Visitor

    SB – I’m not rubbing anything in anyone’s eye and I’m not sure why you would take my comments like that.
    I’m making plenty of good money. NXG at 1.43 PZG at 1.15 MFN at 7.25 I won’t continue because that would be rubbing it in your eye. Further, I believe my comments are helpful, “don’t go all in, all out”, “let your winners ride” and here’s one you can use today to make money in the future. “Buy Sugar” (I use SGG).
    Have a great weekend everybody! (You too SB)

  11. David


    No question that miners represent good relative value right now.

    But I have to assume miners are going to take a hit when gold inevitably returns to the 200dma, at least initially. There will inevitably be leveraged players who wind up having to puke their shares into that drop, and that’s when I want to buy for the long haul.

    I won’t be selling any more miners next week, but I do want to have cash on hand for that event.

    BUT as Gary says, if you want to know the sentiment of the market, check your own gut. Right now I am as miserable as can be, despite having suffered negligible losses — just opportunity cost. Presumably other gold mining investors feel the same way. That probably means something from a contrarian perspective.

  12. David


    I’m sure gold sentiment is off-the-charts bullish.

    But sentiment vis-a-vis gold miners (a much smaller subset of investors) has to be awful.

  13. David

    I just checked and GDXJ is trading at the same price it was in mid-October 2010, when gold was $500 lower.

    That has to be a negative for gold-miner sentiment.

  14. David


    My comments are not directed at you — you’ve managed a very difficult environment exceptionally well. And as you point out, you’ve been talking about the divergence in miners for six months at least.

  15. MarkF



    I’ve tried them all. California numismatics has the best prices and free shipping and insurance on any order over $2000.

  16. Gary

    I just don’t want you to get bummed out because you missed an opportunity.

    There will be hundreds of them over your investing career. We have a huge one brewing right now in the stock market.

  17. Gary

    400 is what we are looking for but that doesn’t mean we need to buy on Monday morning.

    I will go over a possible scenario in the weekend report for what might happen if 1100 is breached next week.

  18. Rob L.


    You seem more excited about the QQQ trade now than when we initially bought a couple of weeks ago. Is it b/c of this latest retracement?

  19. Poly

    Good work Gary, not worth messing around with this.

    I’ve got some skin in it, but fairly modest. I’m playing it more like a straddle, but with the short side acting more as a hedge. Logic is this extended and vertical, gold has to keep churning higher or collapse, not much room for “hanging around”. Much higher works great, a collapse is money back.

    Have a great weekend all.

  20. JEFFtheFLEA

    it says

    round brilliant
    7.03-7.10x 3.97mm / 1,18 ct
    depth % is 56.2
    table diametter % 67%
    girddle thickness med to slitly thick, faceted
    culet size medium
    finish… polish is good
    symmetry fair, to good
    clarity grade is internaly flawless
    color grade i
    color faint blue
    crown angle 30 degrees

  21. MarkF

    Damn! This is frustrating. I think the big boys, whoever they are, have a way to read the collective minds and at each obvious turn set up a new road going in an unmapped direction. This market has left everyone second guessing and wrong. Old Turkey would have worked better than this mess when it first seemed like GDX was forming a reverse head and shoulders and it was time to hold on. Since GDX’s obvious buy me low in June, it’s up 20%. Big players like SLW, NGD, AUY, NEM, and ABX are all moving higher and looking good, so I guess it’s time to be even more frightened, but if everybody is now a contrarian, shouldn’t that be a contrary indicator?

  22. Gary

    Old Turkey is great except it will get you caught in a D-wave decline unless you can spot exact to top.

    We’ve already had multiple topping signs and each of them have failed.

    Gold is now conditioning everyone to hold their positions. Sooner or later one of these topping signs will be the true top and all those people holding their positions are going to get destroyed during the D-Wave correction.

  23. MarkF

    Thanks Gary. I’ve always lost money thinking this time it’s going to be different. This time I’m missing gains because I think this time it won’t be different. Both ways of thinking are painful.

  24. Shalom Bernanke


    Like the dollar index has little predictive value for metals recently, it’s entirely possible miners are getting dragged by stocks while metals rally. I’m not saying this is fact, just a possibility.

    To me, it’s far better to be long the bull with a size I can handle, including beatdowns than to attempt directional calls and live or die by them, at least for playing a secular bull.

    The answer is to be long metals and miners with manageable size and add only when you’d initiate a new position. Same game as always, and the only way Old Turkey could ever work over time was to ride the uncomfortable retracements. Livermore never mentioned a “D-wave”!

    Just sharing some observations to ponder over the weekend.


  25. David


    The same thoughts have occurred to me.

    At the same time, I’ve observed that on most days that gold rallies, the miners rally as well, regardless of what’s going on in the market. So I don’t think the miners have been held back by the market.

    Keep in mind as well that the miners have been underperforming for a while now. The Gold:XAU ratio has been rising for several months as well — predating the weakness in equities. The massive spike in Gold:XAU, combined with the plunge in bond yields, feels very much like summer of ’08 to me.

  26. Shalom Bernanke

    Feels like ’08 a bit to me also. We’ll see, but I’ve learned not to worry about how I feel b/c everybody is usually feeling the same, and often on the same side more likely than not. But I do agree that it certainly smells like everything is due to get smacked, and I’d guess we go lower to sideways for at least a month.

    When trading a bull market,the odds are always best that the market will let you out at better prices than feeling forced to sell into weakness.

  27. 23t870


    You are suggesting a huge rally is iminent.

    Stocks lately seem to rally on dollar weakness and lately stocks get slammed ln any dollar strength

    The dollar wil be on day 18 on Monday and will be looking to put in bottom in the next 5to 8days.

    Are you anticipating stocks rallying as the dollar seeks its bottom and don’t you think once fhe dollar emerges from its dcl stocks will tank again ?

  28. Coffee

    I hope that you’re having a little bit of fun with the successful QQQ’s and Gold trade. Don’t ever want to lose the fun component. Congrats on the intuitive calls.

  29. KAL


    Are you messing with options in a big way? How are you up 66% this month? Are you a loan shark now? Haha…

  30. GoldBug

    Interactive Brokers bulletin board

    Fri Aug 19 13:29:35 2011 EST

    As a result of the volatile trading environment at the present
    time, please be advised that Exchange margins and House margins are
    likely to increase over the next couple of days. For exchange-
    specific increases, please visit the respective websites. IB will
    also be increasing the gold derivatives margin. Please monitor any
    affected holdings closely and manage your risk accordingly.

  31. Tajir


    Diamonds is all about 4Cs, Color, Clarity, Cut, Carat. Briefly;

    Color = Colorless are better, graded from Grade D to Grade Z. Grade D is colorless.
    Clarity = Measures amount of imperfection. FL grade means flawless, I1, I2 and I3 have visible flaws.
    Cut = Determines brilliance of diamond. Should not be shallow or deep that causes light to pass through.
    Carat = Diamond’s weight and size. Obviously bigger is better.

    Hope this helps

  32. Sleeper

    Gold sentiment seems like it is getting very frothy now, at least subjectively. I keep reading about higher targets ($2000, $2400!, $5000!, gold:Dow 1:1, etc), like its going to keep going straight up forever.

    Now me, I’m a gold bull who is currently on the sidelines, anxiously waiting for a lower entry point back in. But I find myself starting to get slowly sucked back in by the propaganda and the overly biased cheerleading, wondering just how far from the station I’m going to let the gold-train pull away before I am compelled to capitulate and buy at the top….

    I guess my irrational emotional fear is that it really WILL keep going up and never correct….

    ….which is exactly why it will correct.

    And I will try to wait patiently and ignore the noise.

    It could be soon.

  33. wolf33


    look what happened 32 years ago- cycle.

    btw—the most consistent cycle is about 10.3 days—low to low.

    65 day cycle so far over riding that cycle.

    we are going to get another margin increase or several soon. that will be the true test.

    very reliminary
    Boads look absolutey TERRIBLE

    Gold/silver look good. like silver best. But for Heavens sake I could be wrong. Gary is your best bet to follow.

    Mon will be dayv 3 of 2nd half of cycle.

    GIVE RON PAUL 25 or 50 bucks!

  34. wolf33

    SB—thank you.

    When i attented Ames straw poll which he really won. Randy Travis got Bachman many shady votes.

    The energy behind the boots on the ground for Paul is unbelivable, the young adults and many like us have had it.

    talked to one young adult from Arkansas who had been in Ia 3 mos
    making phone calls on the part of the campaign.

    It is much different than 2007. I was there also.

    one reason they like Paul is they feel they can trust him and he is all about truth—good or bad.

    It is really catching on. I have seen his adds—yhey are great and only truth.

  35. Shalom Bernanke


    Good points, and I think the media’s attempt to discredit Ron Paul is now backfiring, driving many to understand we’ve been lied to for a long time by politicians. Most important is that more people decide every day they should never trust media, on any issue including Ron Paul.

    The lies have finally caught up with those that tell them.

  36. Shalom Bernanke


    Btw, I also know Ron Paul won the debate in Iowa. Nationwide polls had him winning 64% of the vote, and Foxnews.com even pulled the poll down off the site b/c he was trouncing the others so badly. The best part is Foxnews is supposed to guide the “conservative” vote, which is really just another way of saying more wars. People are catching on.

  37. riley

    Wolf 33 thanks for link to Ron Paul. Sent $50, probably won’t get nomination as media avoids him, but made me feel good. Long gold miners since Jan 09. Holding core and trading in and out with 30%, much like SB. Learning cycles to help with entries. Anyone here follow Martin Armstrong?

  38. ckpc

    I made my $100 contribution just before the ticker hit the
    $1 million total.
    I was a delegate to the Colorado state convention in 2007 on RP’s behalf, and drove solo all the way to Minneapolis for the Rally for the Republic. So glad I did. What an experience!
    The message is spreading like wildfire now it seems. Thanks for all you do.

  39. Gann360

    At ease
    I love Charting,i spend hours looking at different Chart,and it feels like Minutes,to me !

    The set up on the Long Side of the Markets ,Could be Highly Highly !!! Profitable here,but will the markets reverse back up at 1090 1080 or 1010 ? i dont know, but i will be looking for clues from the VIX TRANSPORTS ,Broker Dealers Semi’s for a low…


  40. ...at ease

    I can tell you love working on them and can see the thought and analysis you put into each one. Thank you for sharing your talent with us. I appreciate them.

  41. sophia

    Can somebody help please?

    I am trying to look at Gann360 screen chart but I am on iPad and don’t know how to copy/ paste the link.

    Thanks Gann360 for sharing your charts by the way…you must be very successful as you have the right approach

  42. MrSu

    Just hold your finger on his link and it will highlight it. You can use the round tabs to move the area that is highlighted. Then, select “copy”, which is near the highlighted area.

  43. wolf33

    SB–ur a great presence on this site;

    Gann 360—-Thank you for sharing your charts. They are excellent. A great addition to the site.

    You are appeciated, I think by many.

  44. wolf33

    I worked for a financial institution. they take(can afford) a lot of technical information. while wished i could be more specific, i can only pass on what i do or would lose the sourse,

    Gann 360—Do you have a chart on gold similar to S & P. ie pitchfork.

    Curious how it fits with 3rd day of 2nd half of 65 day cycle.

    There are other things place lot of emphasis on and Broad market looks terrible going into Monday.

    Gold still looks great.

    Again I caution all, follow Gary, he is one of very best I have ever seen. Both young and old.

  45. Harry

    Gary, question for you about the D-wave correction. A D-wave, by definition, retraces 61.8% of the C-wave. Assuming we started way back at $855 in ’09, we could be looking at a pullback well into the $1300s or possibly even to the consolidation zone in the 1200’s (which you’ve mentioned before as a possibility).

    On the other hand, intermediate bottoms are not supposed to be violated during the bull save for 8-year cycle lows. You also have previously said $1478 should not be breached. Thoughts?

    Thanks as always!

  46. Harry

    Jeff, you’re absolutely right, but it goes to show how patriotic we all are around here. If we were just in it for the cash we would be donating to O instead 😛

  47. SF Giants Fan

    I wonder if it’s going to be “margin hike Monday” for gold.

    Current margin on gold is 4%. of contract price
    Current margin on silver is 10% of contract price

    At silvers peak, margin was 9% of contract price. They need to double the margin in gold just to be equal.

    It will be interesting to see how gold opens in a few hours…

  48. Venicerain

    I dont think people should treat this ABCD wave patten in gold as a religion. Why a D wave deep correction has to come just because the ABCD patten works from the beginning of the gold bull market since 2001? Remember a pattern works until it doesnt. If you consider this C wave from 09, it looks so streched that I would say the ABCD pattern might have failed this time. This gold bull might have been transitioning to a completely new phase. The game changer could be that the central banks around the world became net buyers of gold from 2009. The correction from December 2009 to Feburary 2010 would have been a D wave correction and it would have been a deeper correction to satisfy the defination of a D wave, but it stoped at 1040-1050 where Indian central bank bought 200 tons of gold in late 2009 and that provided an extremely strong support.

  49. Danno

    Who can say what gold will do. All I know is that gold does have the potential to rally for another solid month. I am not selling gold or silver here. Just layering in some puts on the way up as well as some cheap inverse ETF shares but keeping some power dry as well for any profit taking pullback.

  50. Danno

    Gold may break $2,000 on this run before is succumbs to profit taking. I can feel it. Silver may have done a gap-and-go on Friday.

  51. aklaunch

    This should be an interesting week. Doubt/hoping the stock market will hold. Just can’t see why it would. The BKX chart looks like Sh__t….

  52. Shalom Bernanke

    I’m not buying any metal up here, but silver is a confirmed “buy the dip” asset once again, if it ever wasn’t in the last couple years.

    I hope to buy some miners from weak hands over the next month, as early as this next week.

    Good luck. 🙂

  53. Danno

    One mistake people make when looking at gold charts is:

    a. They set their display settings to 1024 x 768 (for example) and make a 1 year chart fill the screen.

    b. Then they make a 10 year chart fill the same screen.

    c. They compare the 1 year chart to the 10 year chart.

    You can’t do that!

    It is comparing apples to oranges. The 10 year chart will be far more compressed horizontally, causing the peaks and valleys to appear much more severe than they are. If you really want view a 10 year chart that represents reality, you have to stretch the chart horizontally. REALLY stretch it. If you do then you will discover that this current run up in gold is not so unusual or spectacular in the greater scheme of things.

  54. Hack


    Correct. And compare APPL to gold and $2000 doesn’t look like such a radical move after all. I think everyone is stuck on the TA…

  55. wolf33

    My brief notes for Monday-

    Gold—this will be day 3 of the second half of a 65 day cycle low to high. i have mentioned that the 2nd half could be more dramaticthan the first half. Silver could well lead but gold safer bet. think silver minimum of 46 to 50. these r just my opinions and should NEVER be relided on. Follow Gary.

    2. think we could see some dramatic moves on miners. the clue 4 me will to see if juniors really turn up the heat. they have lagged majors. handful of majors making new highs. again follow Gary he is the best i have seen. u will be much better off,

    3. watch cef to see if can buy at a discount intra day. they do hold there silver and gold. count on it!

    4. look to sell a laggard if it does not participate.

    broads—what i look at is simply terrible. even horrible. but they can fool u. take the time to look at amzn chart. even the best company (aapl) muight well look the same. watch it closely.

    like to see $ stay in this area or lower. every floating rate currency is trying to debase—currency wars.

    remind every one that ron paul predicted this years ago. he is the only one with a sound plan and speaks truth good or bad. i luv truth.

    These are notes to my self. the thought process will be adjusted during the day. it is highly likely that little or nothing will

    one last note on gold—-there have been corrections all along this cycle—most .382 $—u will only find them on intra day charts.

    last note-Gann has some great charts. i really like his work. luv pitchforks but do not know how to do them.

  56. Danno

    Gold could hit $4,000 an ounce over the next three to five years, says hedge-fund manager John Paulson. Gold is currently trading around $1,500 an ounce. John Paulson, head of the hedge fund that bears his name, was the top-earning manager of 2010. He raked in $4.9 billion in 2010 thanks to bets on gold at Paulson & Co., shattering his record in 2007, when he earned $3.7 billion by betting that housing market was about to collapse.

    Hedge Fund
    A hedge fund is a fund that can take both long and short positions in the same market to offset losses during a market downturn.

    Don’t tell me you need to sell your gold or silver long positions or that you can’t stay long through pullbacks and simply hedge your gold and silver long positions. Of course you can. Hedge funds do it all that time! That’s the whole reason options were invented; for insurance. Has anyone here made $4.9 billion dollars in one year lately?

    I’m not nagging. Just say’n.

  57. Gary

    Hedging is great for massive funds that can’t enter and exit easily, but it’s a waste of money for the average retail investor. None of us are going to move the market with our trades.

    If you think the market, or an asset like gold, is going to go down, instead of hedging, just sell your position.

    You will accomplish the same thing as hedging (market neutral) and you won’t have to worry about trading two positions instead of one.

    Convincing the average retail trader that he needs to hedge his positions with options was probably the greatest scam Wall Street ever pulled on the retail investor.

  58. Beanie

    If politicians were not allowed to own gold or silver, would they still want a gold standard?

    I see that Ron Paul owns lots of gold and gold related stocks. What if he were not allowed to own gold or silver? Would he still fight teeth and nail for the gold standard day after day, year after year?

    It seems to me many of the gold bugs ( Dave morgan, mike maloney, peter schiff, etc), they have some sort of relationship to miners and they sell gold and silver on their websites. A significant conflict of interest if you ask me.

    Why don’t they and their gold/silver miner friends hog up all the gold and silver instead of selling to the masses?

  59. Danno

    To each his own. I hope everyone makes out. More than one way to skin a cat. For me, I’m not selling my gold or silver. I’m as old turkey as they come. I’m riding this pig all the way up until it pukes. When I sense it’s about to crap out I’ll sell more covered calls and if it does come crashing down I’ll buy the calls back and cash in the puts I’ve been slipping in on the way up. Yeee-HAW!!!

  60. Beksachi

    Breaking news!?

    1) On King World News, Ben Davies was saying last week he expects a short term correction in gold before 2100$ end of year. (This kinda aligned with our forum)

    But as of just TODAY, he is revising that gold will be 2100$ in a few weeks- the forcing factor is “gold run”/Chavez etc.

    2) iTulip’s Eric J. is also saying this weekend, based on his metrics (gold price vs US 10 yr yields), that his long held 2000 “Argentina style” collapse for the US may be afoot this time around.

    Both these guys called the silver crash in April right (iTulip was in fact ~2 days before the top).

    Davies is silver bullish, but I think iTulip still subscribes to silver “broken parabola”

    Hopefully gold corrects SOON! In the meanwhile, I will do the only thing to that makes me feel better during this type of quandry: buy physical bullion.


  61. Gann360

    Hey Driver

    My Family and i are in Florida right now,and i plan to stay here for a while..(wouldn’t want to be there while/if the Hurricane Hits )



  62. ALEX


    Love those charts, and I use fib levels in retracements and my price projections often.

    As for your “time” counts…very interesting. I have not taken the ‘Time’ to keep track of them ; ) …thx for the updates!

  63. Beanie

    Again, I ask:

    Why don’t gold gurus and their miner friends just hog up all the gold and silver, instead of trading to you and me for US dollars?

  64. Gary

    Oh I don’t know, maybe because they don’t have a couple trillion dollars.

    Beanie, sometimes you can come up with the most ridiculous things.

  65. Beanie

    Like I was saying, gold supposed to head to $10,000 to $100,000. Why trade their gold for a measly $1800 (and much lower a few years back)? I would certainly hide my gold like crazy, not sell it like a maniac.

  66. Gary

    I do believe everybody on your list has been buying gold for years and telling their subscribers to buy gold for years.

    Hell, I’ve been telling my subscribers to buy gold for years. It’s the main reason we had such a good year last year.

    You just don’t, or won’t, see the difference between a secular bull market (gold) and a secular bear market (stock market).

    Perma Bear/perma Bull they are both idiots.

  67. Beanie

    Yeah, they warned me the same thing back in 1995, 1996, 1997-1999, 2000-2007, 2008-2009, 20010-2011. The bears are always warning. Heck, they even warned my ancestors.

    They warn even during recovery times. They all warned during late 2009, mid 2010, late 2010, early 2011, and now they warning again.

  68. auger

    Beanie, if this were the U.S.S.R. would politicians want to own stocks?

    To answer your other question, it’s because they are dollar-cost averaging traders.

  69. Beanie

    Why would gold bugs like Peter Schiff want to trade in his gold for US dollars? Seems kinda odd. If hyperinflation is the endgame, those who own all the gold wins.

    Mike Maloney. Same thing. goldsilver.com . He sells you gold, via a relationship with gold producer.

    Dave Morgan. Same. Relationship with gold/silver miner that wants to sell you gold and silver in exchange for your US dollar.

    Just about everyone of the diehard gold bugs have similar setups.

    I keep scratching my head on this.

  70. Gary

    I’ve been telling you for the last six or seven years that we are in a secular bear market.

    I called the top of the last bull market November 07. And I was telling everybody to sell stocks in their 401(k)s in March and April of this year.

    I’m not a perma bear or a perma bull. I just know how these cycles work, and I knew we were due for a cyclical bull market top sometime this summer.

    Because of your perpetual bullish view you will now drag all of your subscribers down into a second bear market.

    We will get a violent bear market rally soon, and I know darn well you will be on the blog telling us the bear market is over Dow is going to 36,000 and then the market will roll over and drag you down again. You will miss your chance to exit and avoid the rest of the bear market.

    Hopefully at some point in your trading career you will figure out that markets go up, and down, and the difference between a secular bull market and a secular bear market.

  71. Gary

    And Buffett is up a grand total of 25% in the last 14 years. And if he doesn’t sell his stocks soon that 25% is going to evaporate by the time the next cyclical bear market bottoms.

    This is a very good illustration of what happens during a secular bear market to perma Bulls.

  72. Gary

    You would be much better off following someone like Jim Rogers who understands the cyclical nature of economics and markets.

  73. Beanie

    Anyway, I would still like to know why all these gold bugs like Peter Schiff have relationships with miners to sell you their silver and gold in exchange for your US dollars. Still seems extremely weird, if gold and silver are that valuable.

  74. Gary

    If they are selling gold then they are making the spread between the bid and ask just like every other gold dealer in the world.

  75. Beanie

    Jim Rogers is a great investor, a great man, an honest man, in my opinion. But he still only made $300 million out of the market (I think that’s what his networth was pegged at). Buffett and Soros still the best.

  76. auger

    Gann360, thanks for the chart, I’m looking at a similar level in SLV. There is a chart at the top of this thread, if you’re interested.

  77. Beanie

    Even the great Eric Sprott has a website that sells you gold and silver. Again, why? Why convert it back to Canadian or US dollar?

    He also sold a huge number of PSLV shares recently. Converting it back to dollars?

  78. wolf33

    deleted long thread i hope.

    Just want to say Monday is 3rd day of 2nd half of 65 day cycle low to high—if this is what we are dealing with—2nd half could well be stronger than first half. JMO and FYI

    Best if you follow Gary

  79. Venicerain

    It’s not that they are selling their own gold reserve. Selling gold is just a business to make money. They dont get their gold free and rape their customers with a huge profit. As for their profit, I am sure they store them in gold/silver after saving some for working capitals.

  80. Dubbelito

    obviously they do it as a business to make sure they have a boatload of money (still US$ and not gold, despite peoples opinion about it) for all their living expenses. You know, we all got to eat right?

    Silly question and not at the least thought provocative.

  81. Gann360

    Wow, Silver Futures close to Flat after being up $1.50 over Night.Hmm

    Maybe the Fib Cycle count May mean something after all.Lets see how they Trade today

  82. marksomething

    RIM’s new OS could get Dell or HP out from under Microsoft thumb and expand Their tablet plans.

    needless to rim needs a partner to survive apple and google’s onslaught

  83. Danno

    This may be the big profit taking pullback or… it may be about 3-5 days of fake out sideways movement before another surge higher. Comparing silver’s price action here against similar technical MACD and Stochastic setups tells me there is still a real possibility of another surge higher.

  84. Keys


    That is interesting, Cramer is the biggest Guru for the retail guy…getting the crowd to go the other way is curious.

  85. marksomething

    RIM’s new OS could get Dell or HP out from under Microsoft thumb and expand Their tablet plans.

    needless to rim needs a partner to survive apple and google’s onslaught

  86. Shalom Bernanke

    I was hoping miners would open lower on continued weakness from last week so that I could do some buying.

    Instead, I noticed GDX has now crept up and is now only around $1.50 or so from new 52 week highs.

    Still like the miners, and looking to add into dips.

  87. Éamonn

    Shalom Bernanke, if there is a QE announcement from Jackson Hole next Friday, and say if gold corrected $200, and S&P jumped 5%, how would you anticipate the miners to behave?

  88. Gary

    I have to say it looks like gold is discounting QE3.

    Of course after a run of this magnitude the announcement of QE3 would probably trigger a sell the news trade.

  89. Gary

    But I would be a buyer after the initial selling wore off, especially now that the miners are correcting the divergence.

  90. St. Deluise

    it seems like no one cares about the dollar anymore..

    just glancing at the weekly /dx futures it sure seems like we’re still setting up for a huge ’08ish spike, and in fact maybe the last couple weeks were the ‘fake out’ wedge break lower before the rocket launch.


    would sync nice with a huge hit to gold and stocks with them both finally diverging amidst a rising dollar sometime next year. perhaps beginning with the end of the euro?

    i don’t know my main pc borked over the weekend so i’m just goofin now.

  91. Shalom Bernanke


    There is no way to tell, but I suppose Gary could be correct that gold might sell off.

    Since we can’t know with certainty how gold will respond, I won’t let the possibility affect how I trade them. It’s also possible money comes out of gold, and into miners from those that still want metal exposure but are fearing a pullback. Who knows?

    I do have the feeling that many have sold out of miners for various reasons, and that this is how the bull will make sure as few people as possible are able to participate.

    The real answer is to have some, and look to take advantage of pullbacks, IMO.

  92. mikezza

    on the newswires-
    It is being reported that traders expect Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke to begin a third round of quantitative easing to boost the economy, and that is being reflected in record-low yields on U.S. Treasuries. Barclay’s expects that traders anticipate $500 billion to $600 billion of Treasury purchases by the Fed.

  93. DP

    Gann360 —

    Very interesting. Thanks for sharing.

    Are you studying such things manually, or through computer backtesting?

  94. Shalom Bernanke

    ‘riley’ mentioned he was at about 30% of his accounts in miners, and that sounds about right to me depending on which names being bought.

    Some of the smaller miners have 20% swings each week, so that would imply account values moving around 6%/week.

  95. Dan

    HUI pressing up against year long resistance at the 600 level. Will it be pushed back down or are we about to see a big breakout?

  96. Moneyman

    The dollar is flat..The miner was diverging and sentiment was high..

    This was maybe a lesson for the furure?

    We can see gold go parabolic with a flat dollar..High sentiment and miners diverging! Actually the dollar was rising together with gold earlier..

    I didnt expect this move in gold..So many warning sign..But Gary told us that gold will do everything to kick us off the train..

  97. wolf33

    gold=3rd day of 32 day rally =2nd half of 65 day cycle===may well surprse upside. jmo

    huey would break to new highs if this continues.

    corrections intra-day

  98. Gann360

    Yeah ,,,,and on the day it doesn’t get Hit, (once every 100 T-Days)Usually gets Hit the Following Morning,,,, so c;mon Silver reverse you Pig…lol

    But remember nothing 100%,but it should happen,i have seen this Work 1000 Times

  99. wolf33

    gann 360—possibly the long cycle is too overwhelming—i do not know but have placed lot of my portfolio on this and of course persons pivots.

  100. Danno

    Long another 100 shares of AGQ at 251 (double silver). Bought a 250 covered call back at a loss, then sold a 265 covered call for a gain over the loss and giving me another 15 points to ride AGQ up! Plus added some SLV puts for extra insurance. Broker loves me. Trading fool. Yeeee-haaaww!! Gonna ride this PIG!!

  101. Gary

    Folks there is an incredible opportunity brewing in the stock market. But everyone is worrying about missing a move in gold.

    People you need to get a grip on your emotions.

    Once gold corrects, and it will, and it will be violate, then we can decide whether we want to get back into the sector.

  102. Gann360

    Wolf anything is Possible

    But , with so many Cycles getting hit here ,in the Metals, i do believe we are very close to a Reversal.

    But i have been wrong before and will be again.

  103. Gary

    The stock market is setting up for a bear market rally of historic proportions. Once we get some indication of the bottom, especially if the scenario I laid out in the weekend report unfolds, we could see a 25 to 30% rally in the S&P in as little as 5 to 6 weeks.

    Gold on the other hand is stretched massively above the 200 day moving average and we could come in one morning to large margin hikes and a 300 point gap down.

    It’s all about risk and reward. The risk in gold is extreme. The reward in the stock market is potentially huge.

    Instead of letting one’s emotions control their thought process. One needs to think logically where the largest potential gain is likely to occur.

    I can assure you it’s not by playing chicken with a parabola.

  104. sophia


    How do you think 25%-30% rally on stocks? What makes you feel like that bullish? Bear in mind that I am not trying to steal your crystal ball, but I would love to learn.
    Thanks for all your help

  105. Éamonn

    Gary, thank you. I exited my last PM position, in silver, this morning. I have learned that patience is usually rewarded. I will learn what the Fed will say on Friday. If there is QE, then its game on. I’ll wait for a few days to let volatility subside and then I will buy some SPY calls. However, its possible that the market will not be happy with the Fed’s plans & after a short rally we have to head back to S&P 1000 before we get some whopper stimulus :o)

  106. Peter

    folks, do yourselves a favor. Listen to Gary. I’ve been in the situation where I chased, and chased, and I lost my shirt. Gary helped me gain back those losses. He is dead on … Gold is stretched, as oil was in ’08, and a great opportunity is arising in the General Market. Be patient and you will be rewarded.

  107. Feel

    order to short 500 GLD will execute at 181 or 187, whichever comes first.

    I was unable to find a satisfactory inverse ETF but am still looking.

  108. Moneyman


    I think they will do something..Dont know when they will give it to the market..But QE3might not be the answer, but something will happen soon..

    I dont think they will let the market go below 1010..

  109. Danno


    You never ever buy options unless it is as insurance to hedge a position. You only sell options. Trust me on this one. You’re going to screw yourself one day. Maybe not today. But one day you will screw yourself blind. Just trying to help buddy. No offense.

  110. corporatewarrior


    2x ProShares UltraShort Gold ETF (GLL)
    (Volume 1,718,002)

    2x ProShares UltraShort Silver ETF (ZSL)
    (Volume 4,358,951)

    ZSL has decent options liquidity if i remember correctly.

  111. Gary

    Actually selling options is every bit as risky as selling short.

    Most of the time selling options will gain you a small premium and you can go along for months and months and then all of a sudden out of the blue something like 2008 happens and you incur a loss so great that it wipes out all of your small profits.

  112. Shalom Bernanke

    If I had to guess, the Fed will stand aside a little while longer, and stocks could weaken further before they step in.

    That said, I don’t think they can afford a massive deflationary pukeout like ’08. At that point the stimulus might not be able to resuscitate stocks, the economy, etc if the life gets squeezed out of ’em again. It would be game over for the crooks.

    Either way, I’m not weighing these thoughts too heavily in my trading since it’s nothing I can control and we can’t know definitively how markets will react. Who knows? It’s even possible the markets lose faith entirely and sell off after a 2-3 rally on the announcement of QE. Interesting times, indeed.

  113. Shalom Bernanke

    We all realize the end is coming and it’s possible it’s closer than we would like. I’m not predicting this, but it seems all possibilities are on the table more than ever before.

  114. Shalom Bernanke

    Perhaps we’re closer to a rapid 30-50% rapid devaluation (collapse) in the dollar. It’s happened in history many times before, and I don’t buy the reserve currency bs. That’ll just make it worse.

    All it takes is people realizing around the world they do not want US cash, and the selling begets more selling.

  115. Hack

    “QE3” has already been announced so what you are seeing is the result, a sell off. The market knows that it won’t work this time and that’s why the hedge fund managers covered their shorts on Friday and started selling their longs. I outlined all of this on Thursday, and it’s not rocket science if you know what the managers are doing. This is why gold is taking off. Isn’t this what Gary said would happen?

  116. MrMiyagi

    GLD has now had 3 days in a row of gap ups that have not been filled and SLV has 2. As I have mentioned in the past though, gold and silver do trade round the clock so it is not as bad a gap as a non 24hr trading stock but it is there nonetheless.

    I am curious to see how far this goes up before a meaningful downturn, there are more and more “to da moon!”-ers everyday, like silver in April.

  117. Éamonn

    I agree with Shalom Bernanke when he says that the end could be sooner than we expect. I also believe that maybe less than 1% of the population will make fortunes from it, and the so-called “middle class” will carry the can

  118. Feel

    Hack said, “The market knows that it won’t work this time and that’s why the hedge fund managers covered their shorts on Friday and started selling their longs.”


    Doesn’t that depend on what the goal of QE2 really was? Was the goal what actually happened or something else? They seem pretty happy with what happened even if they wanted something else.

    So what I’m wondering is why wouldn’t more “easing” flow into speculative asset plays again?

    I will review your Thursday post.

  119. Greenspansconscience

    Oh my, HUI looking super bullish.

    I just *knew* Gary’s original thesis re: the miners was right, i.e., no C wave had ever ended with miners at or below the 200 dma, triple top breakout on the P&F chart, etc. etc.

    Check out Ben Davies interview of King World news re: gold and silver. This guy is brilliant and a very eloquent speaker.

  120. Gary

    I went over shorting a bull market in the weekend report. But if you must inflict pain on yourself why not at least wait till gold touches $2000 before trying to short?

  121. Feel

    2010 QE2 recap:

    Strong rally Jan, thru Apr.

    Then in May Flash Crashed then sideways into June. Rallied then sold off to put in 2010 BOTTOM on bad employment data, sovereign debt worry and Europe banking.

    Decent rally followed in July into Aug. but the market SOLD off into Jax Hole. Market did a perfect sideways move during JH.

    News says BB “hinted” at QE2 and market began its succession of 1st day of month moonshots.

    QE2 wasn’t made “official” until Nov. 3rdish. Market rallied HARD into that then sold the news to just below pre-Flash Crash levels (spx 1175) then went sideways to resume the rally straight up til the end of the year.

  122. Dan

    HUI looks like it’s finally breaking out of it’s year long consolidation. This is gonna get real exciting if we get confirmation tomorrow.

  123. Feel


    Understood. I agree gold is in a bull and I think that shorting now is in the highest portion of the risk window. When I get filled I will post my stop.

    Enjoying the blog.

  124. auger

    I’m no top caller, but with a looming Gold correction, I would like to see a strong close above 620, to consider this a possible $HUI breakout. Otherwise, it’s in broadening top, territory.

  125. wolf33

    Maxine Waters: Tea Party Can Go ‘Straight to Hell’

    Example of someone who is spending my-our $. It is a Sin!

    And I know i have had enough. One oyher stupid statement–Government run the oil companies.

  126. wolf33

    patience—-silver could be tough because of industrial side. so really doing great. IMO miners will come around—but just a guess on my part! Still on a buy.

  127. coolkevs

    Note from Kevin Depew at Minyanville regarding the Baltic Dry Index:
    Index up 16% the past week while everyone is fretting about a new global recession. BDI is viewed by many as a bellwether of economic activity, tracking the price of shipping raw materials by sea.
    DeMark WEEKLY chart shows a TD Sequential 13 BUY signal recorded 3 weeks ago, and will confirm with a BULLISH price flip (close greater than the close 4 bars earlier) this week > 1323, currently at 1462. So, this signal is good for another 9 weeks.
    Chalk this up as yet another divergence showing up on the DeMark charts that was not there in 2008/2009..
    As a reminder, even though BAC is getting hit with an ugly stick today, it did record a WEEKLY BUY last week – needs one of those bullish price flips as well to confirm.

  128. Hack

    Nice manufactured rally this morning so that the high rollers could sell their shares to the retail crowd. Gold at $1900 – free air to $2000. Don’t see a bit of weakness or hint of a correction that everyone is talking about…

  129. Gary

    It’s not an obvious correction that I’m worried about. I’m worried about waking up one morning and having gold gap down 200-300 points because the profit-taking event has started.

    I refuse to let my emotions cause me to make a stupid mistake. Parabolas are never sustainable. If you don’t pick a point somewhere and exit, then you will get caught in the crash. There are never any exceptions to this rule.

  130. aklaunch

    I am watching Arthur Hill’s market message. Says this is the biggest parabolic run in Gold since 1979/1980. Anybody here remember how that ended?

  131. MrMiyagi

    I don’t see any “Blatant Manipulation!!!!!” “They Are at Work Again” and similar threads on gold/silver forums, funny how manipulation never works when the price is going up.

    Goes to show you, people=sheeple, they will believe what the masses believe.

  132. aklaunch

    Kind of bummed about this looking at the 1980 chart….. If this thing does go to 3,000$ an ounce we are done with Gold for a very long time.

  133. Hack

    I’m not touching gold or silver here, I’m patient. With Jackson Hole and Obama’s new job stimulus plan to be announced after his vacation I will be in a holding pattern. But that aside, if the banks keep selling off then the market is in a world of hurt…

  134. Gary

    What I want to know is how in the world gold can be priced at $1900 when we all know that it’s a manipulated market and being held in check by the evil banking cartel :~)

  135. MrMiyagi

    Just quickly looking at Kitco’s boards, people are talking (again) about using credit cards to buy silver.
    It’s not just C-Waves that crash, nothing can go up indefinitely without a decline, there is nothing that you can show me that has not retraced at some point in time.

    Also, the credit card people want their payments sooner or later.

  136. Dan


    Check out Turd Furgesons blog, he still points out areas where “The Forces of Darkness” will strike next

  137. MrMiyagi

    Yeah, Turd and his followers believe very strongly in the Dark Side (when gold goes down) but no mention of Angels lifting the Golden Ark when it is climbing (heck, flying!).
    Credit to Turd though, he does mention periods of time where PMs do go down, he’s not just “goin’ up UP UUUPPP!”, well.. sorta.

  138. Dan


    I think Turd is just fantastic at marketing and selling this dark forces and evil cartel story. When PMS go up, you can thank him and his wonderful analysis. When PMs correct, he simply rants and lets his imagine run wild typing away that its some evil group working to destroy the goldbugs. Hes very successfully created an “us versus them” story to align himself with the readers and can never be wrong as a result.

  139. Gary

    Yes the manipulation nonsense is one of the oldest scams in the book.

    One can safely play only one side of a market and never have to take responsibility when they make a wrong call.

  140. Alex in Montana

    Market Vane’s Bullish Percentage For Gold:

    Just hit 91% bullish. Last time it was this high was Friday, March
    14th to the Tuesday the 18th of 2008 when it was @ 93%.

    Gold was just over 1,000 for those three trading days days, the exact peak in 2008.

    We know what happened after that.

    Be careful.

  141. wolf33

    Where are you able to get Demark?

    DeMark WEEKLY chart shows a TD Sequential 13 BUY signal recorded 3 weeks ago, and will confirm with a BULLISH price flip (close greater than the close 4 bars earlier) this week > 1323, currently at 1462. So, this signal is good for another 9 weeks.
    Chalk this up as yet another divergence showing up on the DeMark charts that was not there in 2008/2009

  142. Ben

    I just realized I could wake up to a scary 300 dollar decline in gold and it would be almost exactly where I sold it. D’oh…

  143. wolf33



    When I was in the business I had access through i think Telerate. This indicator was developed by Tom and Joe Generales in early 70s.
    I knew Tom a little but Joe very well. He was my kind of a person!

    I have one account at TD so will try and get some one there to help me.

    Is it in the Flexible Grid or prophet stocks?

  144. Blindweb

    Turd’s good at picking price levels. His belief in the dark forces doesn’t seem to negatively effect his pattern recognition ability. He only seems to miss the big corrections down. Keeping that in mind I still find his commentary useful, and read him every day.

    If I walked into a coin shop tomorrow, knowing everything I know about global politics and the global monetary system but ignoring technicals and cycles, how much would I think a fair price for a Gold Eagle be at this exact moment in the economic collapse?
    I’d say $2000 is a fair price. Therefore, I think gold will go significantly above $2000 before a large correction. That being said I’m still going to sell the majority of my position before $2000. Maybe I’ll hold my miners

    I know I’m always short on charts and whatnot; I’ve always prefered Lao Tzu and Sun Tzu to Western logic and reason…if you stare at the map too much you miss the terrain. I’ve made some pretty good calls since reading this blog though, just using feel and looking at other people’s charts… Sold silver right before $50. Bought a full gold position at the beginning of July, thanks to Gary. Held the full position in gold when most here sold. Sold some in the high $1700s and bought back in the low $1700s. Held the miners through the downturn, saying the technical crowd would drive them back up once they realized gold wasn’t going to correct.

  145. Ben

    Blind, would have said a fair price was $2000 just four weeks ago?

    I personally think the correction is coming soon, either starting this weekend, or the following 3-day weekend (great for amassing the dark forces ).

    One tell in my view is the ramp after hours. That started to happen with silver right before the big drop.

    The other tell to me is the rapidly escalating rationalizations for the current sky high price of gold. Six weeks ago, I didn’t see a single forecast for ’11 that exceeded the mid 1800s. Now I have seen them up to 2400 and growing by about 50 per day.

    Some heads are going to roll, me thinks. I have a bunch of miners still but no silver, no gold, and no regrets. I don’t mind sleeping, and I think Gary is right that there’s going to be a trip to the shed very soon.

  146. jeff

    Interesting video on how the Fed keeps interest rates down.
    1. Fed swap low interest 6 month TBills for high yield 10 year Treasury
    2. Fed caps yields by buying debt(i.e. QE2)
    3. Fed sold massive amounts (over 0.5 Trillion notional) put options on Treasuries to drive down yields.

    The third works as long as inflation and yields are don’t rise and they collect the premium to boot as profit. And if yields rise, the Fed has potential losses to their balance sheet (paid for by american’s). This can’t end well.

    Wonder why the Fed doesn’t want to regulate dervivatives?


  147. MarkF

    I’m really beginning to feel stupid, sitting on the sidelines now so long. I’m really afraid of jumping in now, seeing my favorite stocks I sold, now making new highs. I guess for those of us who listen to cycles, the big internet-style run-up in gold stocks could happen while we’re sitting on our thumbs, because it just doesn’t fit the timing, waiting for a correction. The divergence is starting to correct, I think. But as a someone who’s been waiting for this for ten years, my bullion was always the safest store of wealth after all. Too bad I wasted anything on this crappy market. I’m too busy with my day job to study the markets like you all seem to do and understand it well and make any more than a pittance. BooHoo, and woe is me.

  148. Poly

    If you’re not already on board this parabola, it is too late and crazy to even consider getting on.
    But if you’re still riding it, you’re sitting on big profits and should consider sticking with it as much as possible. Sure it could correct $120 overnight (6%) but we’ve been saying that now for many $100’s. Although unlikely, this could get to $2,100 and $2,200 on this run alone if the fear and sovereign contagion persists.
    In the end one must do what they feel is right. They must protect their capital and not be too exposed. Consider taking half or so off the table.

  149. Gary

    No one will ever catch every opportunity and ride it for every penny. But there will always be another opportunity.

    There is a huge one brewing right now in the stock market for those patient to wait for it.

  150. wolf33

    What is too big to fail but to large to save.

    I was short the stock arround 13 and ended up with natta.

    Hong Kong Jim is short one bank stock—my guess BAC

    My info says there derivative exposure is huge.

    Do have some exposure to short financials in FAZ

    My guess that out of Jackson Hole comes QE 3—or they may call it something else.

    IF IF we get truth on GDP revisions should be down.

    what affect on markets? got me there.

  151. Blindweb

    Point taken, hard to say. I always thought gold was going higher before a large correction so I probably wouldn’t have sold a gold oz coin for less than $1800 a month or two ago.

    Seems that even Turd is selling before $2000. Therefore anyone who was caught in the silver collapse is going to sell their gold long before $2000. I still think its going to bounce though

  152. wolf33

    tue day 4

    i rate stocks with 3* being the highest. there are a lot of 3*(for the ones i looked at), especially golds–fewer silver.

    Broads—i would just say that my review would be negative.

    i would think if miners are going to break through-next few days key.
    my best guess is yes based on rating system.

    warning—things can change in a hurry. i yus call them as i sees dem.

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