I realize that most people that come to this blog are bullish on gold. I myself am definitely bullish long-term. That being said warning signs are starting to build.

Since gold is down this morning there’s a good chance that the mining stocks are going to break the intermediate trend line today. The complete failure to follow through on the move above 600 is also concerning. Usually after an asset has tested an area three times the breakout  occurs with strong follow-through.

Gold is also in jeopardy of breaking the  intermediate trend line. 

A move below $1705 would confirm a failed daily cycle and a left translated intermediate cycle. That would almost certainly lead to a D-wave decline. 

Every D wave so far has retraced 50-62% of the preceding C-wave advance. If it turns out that $1923 was the top of the C-wave then we can expect a move back to the $1400 to $1500 level. 

Moreover as this would be a left translated intermediate cycle it should move below the prior intermediate low. Taking that into consideration it would be more likely that gold would decline to test the consolidation zone around $1400 before putting in a final D-wave bottom.

I’ve mentioned before that C-wave tops tend to occur slightly above a big round psychological number. We currently have a 2b reversal at $1925.

For those people holding gold or mining stocks your position size needs to be small enough that you don’t do serious damage to your account if gold takes out $1705 as that would confirm that a D-wave decline has begun and probably still has another $300 to go before a final bottom.

328 thoughts on “CAUTION IS WARRANTED

  1. St. Deluise

    timely post, gold just broke 1794.

    i don’t know how low gold is going to go, but i do know that the “can’t lose” mentality is so deeply ingrained that is going to worsen the decline considerably. i assume everyone is looking at the 200 day. hmm.

    food for thought: where is all that GLD money going to go? will be watching for a divergence in the miners.

  2. St. Deluise

    also can anyone interpret the price action on the hourly /dx? pretty orderly stairstep down.

    it looks like people keep trying to pick a bottom but it keeps failing.

    i think as soon as they’re successful in breaking the previous high (now at 77.6) it may resume blasting off. will double my longs at that point.

  3. William Wallace

    Watching the continued heavy sell offs in the gold futures overnight is what made me take off the miners ahead of time. This is what I was worried about when I said miners looked tired, gold looked tired.

  4. DP

    Dubellito —

    Are you stuck with gold futures?

    I am loaded with miners up to the hilt.

    Hand weakness is gonna be tested.

  5. Shalom Bernanke

    I’ve been patiently waiting for HUI to pullback, and expect to do some buying tomorrow if the weakness can hold until then.

    In the meantime, it’s possible I begin to add late morning today, but really prefer to see HUI 590 get breached before dialing up risk.

  6. Dubbelito

    nah, just referenced to G-man’s advice when one wants to short a bull market… πŸ™‚

    I haven’t been in gold for some time now but I couldn’t resist picking a small inverse ETF position now (nobody gave me that damn hammer so what could I do?). Let’s see if I get stopped out and learn my lesson once and for all… πŸ™‚

  7. Moneyman

    The ECB has decided, in coordination with the Federal Reserve, Bank of England, Bank of Japan and the SNB, the implementation of three U.S. dollars of liquidity operations with a maturity of approximately three months until the end of the year, “wrote the ECB in a statement.

    So Bruce Krasting was right. And gold will selloff here short term because this takes down a lot off risk. The banks in Europe can borrow money now from the Fed. I dont think the market will go lower at this point short term.

    If we pass 1200 in SPX I think we will go to 1250-1280 easy!

    The risk is gone short term for Europe..This is some kind of QE3 actually.

  8. Moneyman

    Will be interesting to see what the dollar does at this point because this means moneyprinting..

    And then lend or “give” it to European countries..

  9. Dubbelito

    who woulda thunkit?

    I now see that my otherwise dandy graphs from Netdania (free and no flashing red lights from my dear IT watchdogs at work) have different time stamps? Gold is realtime but DX is delayed by 30 minutes? Well, there you go.

  10. Silverhound


    Yep, watching the MACD on the chart the miners were lookin a tad heated but there was a chance they could have consolidated the break.

    The break of this pattern doesn’t mean the rally is over, it just means looking for another settup for entry.

    Were you rubbing your hands together and smiling just then πŸ˜‰


  11. Robert


    good post–i give it about 48 hours before reality sets back in before the next European crisis–all the economic news today was horrible and the markets are up –just crazy

  12. Shalom Bernanke

    “Were you rubbing your hands together and smiling just then ;-)”-Silverhound

    Not quite yet, but getting there. I expect to get tested all along the way.

    I do prefer to see a mini-panic today or tomorrow.

  13. Poly

    @ MS C, I don’t have a stop on the miners, I like their long prospects and will only dump them on a cycle failure. I also kept my 2nd lot purchased (@ $1,795) on last weeks flush that I intended to dump at $1,790, but will monitor.

    Gary’s post needs to be respected, there is a decent probability that a move towards a DCL failure has begun. We’re certainly at the crossroads of this IT cycle, as this is a perfect point where they could fail from, being the daily cycle is currently ELT and the IT is left of center too.

    We’re at the “show me the money” point of this entire IT cycle. Fortunately we can plan for that, the stops are well defined at the DCL.

    So as the downside has been identified, what about the upside? We must also honor it’s potential, as we honor the DCL stop. What if gold blows by $2,000, what is the plan for that?

    We have a solid risk/reward trade opportunity here. I’m feeling that the weak longs sitting on the trend lines (myself included) were raided this morning. So as the stop (DCL) is sitting not far below here, I took new positions using UGL (@$106.75) this morning, my stop will be the DCL. Risk is about 2%, so not a huge addition.

    Good luck, it’s not easy, keep it small.

  14. Moneyman


    Agree! Seems that we only have a plan for a D-wave at this point.

    But maybe stocks will rally now for 4-5 weeks and gold goes down hard.

    And then when stocks falls back we will see the A-wave in gold..Who knows!

    Take Care!

  15. Shalom Bernanke

    Traders should now have confirmation of a failed breakout it HUI, if that is what they’re focused on, and feel forced to sell.

    Could even go down to 575 or lower, but I’m ok with picking up some shares this morning. Still expect the next several weeks to test me.

  16. Robert

    for anyone Bruce Krasing’s blog is a must read–he is right on when it comes to the economy-like moneyman said he predicted weeks ago how this would play out.From today
    Thursday, September 15, 2011
    On the swap
    I had this to say on August 20th regarding a big central bank swap deal:

    I maintain the next move by the Fed is to massively open up the dollar swap lines with European central banks. I don’t think Bernanke wants to announce this significant step at Jackson Hole. It is an EU issue and the Fed can’t take the lead on this. Opening the swap lines will prove to be very unpopular in the US. Politicians will jump on it as a bailout of Europe while America is struggling.

    Bernanke is going to take some heat, when this happens (I think this is now a certainty, just not sure of the timing).

    The folks at Zero Hedge and FTAlphaville (and others) were of a similar mind.

    I would love to convince you that we were just smart. Actually the evidence was everywhere you looked that something like what was announced this A.M. was in the works.

    My point. People who actually move money around (versus writing about it) were also aware that this was pending.

    Even more to the point:

    This could not have happened without substantial discussion amongst all of the CB’s involved. Dozen of folks knew that this was coming a week ago. That means that dozens more got the tip.

    The market action (buy Euro sell gold) the past few days smelled of something. I think this was it.

    My conclusion:

    Sell on the news. I don’t think the positive reaction will be long lived. There is a flip side to the swap announcement.

    This is a profound acknowledgment of weakness in the funding markets in Europe.

    The swaps may mask the problem for a few months. But it’s going to come back with a vengeance. How could it not?

  17. Moneyman



    Wonder what Ben will say to us next week. I think that we will rally a bit higher here in stocks..

    Gold is taking a hit here, but Im open minded..! Lets see what happens..:-)


  18. St. Deluise

    buying coming in here at 1184 /es but it’s getting a little tired immediate-term.

    looking to diminish positions at /es 1202 and /gc 1765

    dollar still doesn’t know what it wants

  19. Russell

    Anyone have an idea re impact of ECB US dollar loans to euro banks to the USdx? Are these borrowed dollars on the balance sheet already or is the ink still wet?

  20. Veronica

    I hate watching charts intraday,but studying tick charts on GLD the returns the past month have been spectacular.A system based on 50k tick candlesticks has returned well over 100%.

  21. TZ(8155)

    If this gold buy doesn’t hold, I have one more at a lower level (before 1705) and then will simply admit we are more likely in a D than a congestion and play it that way from there.

  22. TZ(8155)

    Note this drop has broken the daily gold cycle uptrend line (as gary and doc us). So we could start another upleg at anytime (at least by that measure).

  23. Gary

    while it is true that most breakouts fail, a breakout that has been tested three times should show strong follow-through.

    Gold has now broken the intermediate trend line. Miners have completely failed to hold the breakout above $600.

    The odds are starting to escalate that a D-wave decline has begun.

  24. Poly

    Have a good day guys, I’m turning my screen’s off.
    Volatility like this can easily have you 2nd guessing and changing your strategy during market hours. Fewer trades more often equals greater profits.

  25. Shalom Bernanke

    But I see your point, and agree this trade will take patience. I don’t see an immediate catalyst to kick miners into high gear on the upside.

    I expect to get tested several times over the next several weeks. Silverhound also pointed out the MACD which looks somewhat ugly in the near term, and though I don’t use it that much, seems to suggest lower prices.

    Sizing is everything.

  26. Shalom Bernanke

    Well said, Poly. I’m stepping away myself, will check back near the close to see if I can add again, and if not, I’ll likely get a chance tomorrow morning the way things look right now.

    Good luck everybody. πŸ™‚

  27. St. Deluise

    good idea poly and i hope to join you soon.

    i’m over invested right now. really would like to trim here so i can just take it easy.

    trying to micromanage /es, /gc, aaaand /dx is way too hard for a dum dum like me. especially while this mess unfolds.

  28. Moneyman


    I remember your buy point. Do you have any target? You dont expect a
    D-wave scenario here or?

    Im out of gold at this point with a small loss. Will w8 and see what happens..

    D-wave or not..Im ready to buy back later on here..

    Good luck!

  29. William Wallace

    Short term, when gold bounces out of a daily bottom (which may be 1775 today) it almost always pushes back up to the 150sma on a 5min chart before rolling over again… when in a down trend as it has been.

  30. TZ(8155)


    My target is continuation of the gold bull to 2000+. I intend to hold this position unless stopped out. If stopped out I will lose 1% and just keep playing. If not stopped out I will probably make 50%+ on my net worth which is a pretty good risk/reward ratio to me. (As/If we climb I will raise stop as well, so even the 1% loss is only temporary if I’m wrong.)

  31. St. Deluise

    oh i’m definitely still bullish on stocks.. but the bears need to be fed again if this thing is going to keep advancing.

    maybe a little plunge into the close would do it. something back down to 1170.

  32. Greenspansconscience

    If we can close the week on the HUI above 606, that would be extremely bullish.

    I’ve noticed on the *weekly* chart, that once long term resistance is significantly breached to the upside, it just doesn’t close back below that former resistance.

    It was certainly true for the 490-500 level.

  33. Gary

    The dollar index entering the aggressive stage of the rally out of the three year cycle low is the wild card.

    It should put in a daily cycle low any day now. Once the dollar starts to rally again we should know pretty quickly whether gold is consolidating or topping.

  34. ALEX

    hey all, Just an update -fwiw

    just got caught up on this blog (takes forever these days πŸ™‚

    I respect Garys caution and if we do drop below $1705, yes it looks bad, but right here and now…I do NOT see a D-Wave.I see at least 1 more explosive move setting up.

    Chart of GLD (to represent Gold), looks the same as ‘MAY’ to me…retest the last HIGH VOLUME sell off at the 50sma just like in May…drop sentiment and weak hands out “Shake out” .

    as for GDX..It DID break the channel today and if it doesnt recover ( it MAY recover by days end??), I imagine that its going to the 50sma. I will post here when it does if it looks Healthy to me or not ( I”M BETTING YES).
    I know GDX broke the 20sma, but EXK and RIC and some other Miners still look good, so I havent sold my Miners – (I bought in mid June and so I do not mind some draw back, maybe I would to ‘wait n see ‘ if I bought recently)

    Disclaimer: I DID lighten up on some Miners earlier this week to go long the markets ( bought CY, VE, CEDC, but will sell soon to re-enter Miners at lower prices). That SPY/DIA channel just keeps looking good 4 trading)

    BUT, I would expect we break down and retest that high volume low area too some day (and gold will take off).

    good day all!

  35. William Wallace

    In 08 the Nasdaq didn’t test the 50sma or previous resistance until it was in bear market rally mode, at this point im looking to take off the SQQQ in a pullback to the 10sma instead of holding out for new lows.

  36. Kevin

    Do you guys have any recommendations for good books to read on trading? I’ve read both of Sperandeo’s books, Soros’ Alchemy of Finance, and just bought Reminiscenses of a Stock Operator.

  37. 86d4life

    Defiantely a turning point, I don`t ever remember seeing this blog so slit on which way things are going to go. Nerve wracking. Long dollar, gold, short spy.

  38. Dubbelito

    I’m reading Stock operator now, freaking loving it! It is crazy educational and entertaining at the same time. Plus it really puts things in perspective when trading is basically the same today as over a century ago…

    Everyone, read it. Like today.

  39. Farm Girl

    Gold drops because it is a safe haven, and not needed now that the euro is saved and it’s “risk on.” But this morning created huge, unknown additional liquidity…and gold drops???

  40. 86d4life

    It seems like every plan I come up with just vaporizes. I figured I could load up my platform with about a hundred buy orders of all types and all things, hit buy………….and they would all instantly be wrong. Whatever. I`m going away for a while. Best to everybody.

  41. LowTax

    Farm Girl, remember that gold is far above it’s moving averages, indicating that it’s short-term over-valued/bought. The big boys, as Gary often notes, play the reversion-to-the-mean game. So they dump their best performers that have gotten too stretched and pile into ‘undervalued’ over ‘oversold’ assets. There is also the issue of short squeezing – short interest in the stock market is at all-time highs. Those will be punished for their greed and it will force the market up. All the more reason for the big boys to pile in, at least for a while…

  42. Hack

    Risk is back on in the market – if we hold above 1200. Fund managers are being forced back into the market because they have to perform better than the market. This means that they are buying beat up stocks, in this case the miners…

  43. DP

    Nice QLD move — up 3%, still expecting 4 day before the top.

    Miners made a hummer and are due to at least small rebound tomorrow.

    Still holding QLD and NUGT.

  44. Glenn

    Staying old turkey gold….this move looks orchestrated by central banks…news out of us and Europe all bad…real moves will happen after hours where you have no opportunity to trade. Waiting to see if we hit 1705, then I’ll go to cash…or if Europe explodes

  45. St. Deluise

    fwiw, new trade triggers today

    /es target 1245 stop 1157
    /gc target 1733 stop 1839
    /dx close to a sell, will trigger with an hourly close beneath 76.585

    these are based on effective volume & 89 hourly ATRs

    leaving the /es trade on the table for now.

  46. ALEX


    I hate to say it, but this is one tricky bull!! It just keeps trying to shake everyone off…here’s how I see it currently.

    GDX and NUGT look quite the same today-

    So I bought 1/2 a position in RIC after selling a couple of “long the market’ equities that I purchased 3 days ago ( CY, PCX, VE). Tomorrow will be interesting in Gold and Miners .

    TRADERLADY– You didnt need to hesitate to write for an update , If I was around, I would try and help πŸ™‚

  47. DP

    Alex —

    That’s exactly what I am thinking about — scare bulls to death, break trendlines, supports, and rebound back.

    That’s what current market is about.

  48. ease

    You say it will be interesting in miners? What do you anticipate? I trimmed back my exposure as I will be on plane all day, no trading until Monday. So sold my NUGT and cut back exposure to GDX options today. Hit my loss peg meter.

  49. St. Deluise

    89 is a fibonacci prime number that fits well into my preferred timescale. but it could be anything you want. i also like 233 and 1597.

    the true range is the highest price in the last X bars – the lowest.

    the average true range is the average of this scalar over the last 89 bars. i feel it incorporates volatility a little better than the TR by its lonesome.

  50. ALEX


    If you’re going to be on a plane- you’re playing it safe and nothing wrong with that.

    I just think that this trend may stay within this channel now since we had a reversal candle today ( it somewhat shows a sell off, and that low was rejected when Buyers came in…BUT it can trade at these levels for another day or two ( to shake some more out πŸ™‚

    Monday will be a clearer picture for you, even if it starts back up.

    (oh, and sometimes when I say the Miners, I may mean individual ones like EXK, RIC, etc . for ex:

    Big gold sell day, but look at CGR, KGC, Baa etc and GDX is actually back up near that 20sma

  51. Visitor

    Man, I don’t understand you guys here. Everyday, (it seems) watching worrying about every little wiggle. In, out, QQQ’s, Miners, D wave, weekly bottom, Buy, Sell . . . . . You want to make money without all the stress and wasted time trying to figure out something you have no control of? Buy BRD, shut off your computer and come back next year. Simple as that. If you can get it in the high 1.40’s or low 1.50’s, you’ve got a deal. (Cheaper and you’ve got a steal).

  52. Jayhawk


    Can you drop me or Poly an email? (click my profile)

    It does not have to do with raising chickens, but that may come in the future. πŸ™‚

  53. William Wallace

    Gold futures have pushed back up off it’s daily low to the 150sma on a 5 min chart as I mentioned it would earlier today, anyone can put on contracts long at the lows and take profits at the 150sma for a $10 dollar move atleast, I do this almost off of every daily bottom. Do it for ten days (or more) and it’s an easy $150 move or better, it’s a sure shot whether gold is going up or down it always retraces back to the 150sma on a 5 min chart off the highs and off the lows, the lows are much easier to catch. This trade is much more certain than trying to catch a single $150 move.

  54. William Wallace

    BTW gold low at 1775, tagged the 150sma on a 5 min at 1792, take profits on a $17 move…if profits weren’t taken at the 150sma tag gold crawls the 150 and profits crawl down the 150 also. Gold usually rolls over off the 150sma when trending lower and makes a new low.

  55. Veronica

    Elaine, a tick chart forms each candlestick based on volume and not time such as daily,60 min,etc.It’s a different way of looking at the market because on a high volume day you would get multiple candles.FWIW, my main gold trading system is still on a buy with the sell staying stubbornly low.I sure wish it would fire off a loss soon to allow it to reset a bit.

  56. KAL

    Question for you all:

    I am with optionsXpress. I feel like there’s better stuff out there. Ideas? Interactive Brokers? TD Ameritrade? Pros? Cons? Want to be prepared for the A wave. Gracias!


  57. William Wallace


    Your entry was 1775 or close, gold pushed up after the 1775 low to 1792 before rolling over, why don’t you move up your stop to atleast a break even after you are in the green? I see no reason to take numerous 1% losses on multiple contract positions.

  58. riley

    WW been following your futures trading off 150sma. does this work on night trading. Been playing the bounces off big moves down at night but not having as big of moves last few nights. Will try this tommorrow but wondering when you dicide the daily low is in to play the move to 150sma?

  59. ver


    Always appreciate your commentary. I’ve got to ask, how do you come up with your calls, in this case about fund managers targeting 1660-1680 as a buy zone? You seem to make a variety of calls of this nature and many seem quite well tuned in to what’s going on, so just curious more than anything else.

  60. Liquid Motion

    Trend is not broken.
    Gold miners are only in their infancy in this next great bubble.
    World problems have not been addressed. Still too much debt and poor BANK balance sheets everywhere.
    USD is temporarily the safe haven until EU sorts itself out…albeit ST.
    We also cannot discount the Bernank factor ….QEIII will set the markets on fire again…as well as PM’s and anyone long the $$$ is going to be cleaned out.
    Just my 2 AU cents worth.
    Gary, your call might just be too premature again. We forget that we are not in normal market gyrations here. Every rule book is thrown out the window.
    Cycles may be cycles….but this is the last great bull market the financial markets are going to see for very long time…and it aint doing what everyone expects it to do (GOLD).
    Left translated is a big call if AU goes sub 1705 (still about 8 or so weeks to go).
    Still in on phy AU/AG and serious miners too. Ready to add more.
    Brave call…and yes you have been calling it for some time.

  61. Joseph Lemma

    Anyone who can’t see that gold will not enter a D-wave decline is blind. Just ask your self this: is gold more likely to breach 1700 (huge support) or 1840 first?

    Whichever happens will dictate the direction for a very long time.

  62. Gary

    Folks a D-wave has nothing to do with fundamentals. It is a profit taking event and is driven by human emotions.

    Unless you think human emotions have some how changed in the last three years then you can’t rule out a D-wave triggered by the extreme stretch above the 200 DMA last month.

    And I think we all know Bernanke has no chance of QE3 at this time. He already has three dissenters on the FOMC and if you listen to the recent interview with Fisher on Yahoo finance it’s glaringly apparent he would never get approval for QE3 anytime in the near future.

  63. Danno

    A couple of people asked me to report back on the status of my silver hedge.

    200 AGQ @ 239 $47,800
    25 SLV Sept 32 puts (paid $950)
    15 SLV Oct 39 puts (paid $4,500)
    Note: Oct 39 puts were 20 Sept 39 puts that I rolled into Oct as time ticked away.

    Sold options hedge:*
    25 SLV Sept 32 puts (expired)
    15 SLV Oct 39 puts (sold $3,200)

    200 AGQ @ 205.72 $41,144
    600 ZSL @ 12.54 $7,524

    *Price was not falling fast enough for a hedge made of put options to make headway. Time was also ticking away. After careful examination of AGQ (double long silver) vs ZSL (double short silver) charts I was surprised to discover that if I owned enough shares of ZSL it would replace my put options hedge and perform nearly as well, with the added benefit that the ZSL shares would not expires. So I made the switch. I sold my put options hedge and bought ZSL as a hedge.

    If AGQ skyrockets higher from here that’s fine. My ZSL will evaporate in value but that’s okay. I may just keep the ZSL shares indefinitely.

    If AGQ plummets my ZSL should kick in and should reach break even right about AGQ 120 (although reaching ‘break even’ is not really necessary). In the event of such a fall, I would hopefully have the courage to sell my ZSL at some point and use most of that money to buy more AGQ, for the ride back up to AGQ $400 and beyond.

    Although I have a net loss on this position if you add up the figures above, that loss is muted by the fact that I have made a few thousand dollars selling covered calls on my AGQ shares (albeit only when I felt AGQ would be flat or down).

    Anyway, good luck. This is about as close to a worry free hedge as I could construct.

  64. Joseph Lemma

    Marginal cost of gold production for the average company in GDX is almost $1600 and rising. Most companies in the GDXJ aren’t even making any money.

    Kinross probably won’t make any money in the next 5 years because they paid too much for Red Back.

    I would be long GLD at this point, not GDX.

  65. Danno

    SLV 2011 chart vs SLV 2008 chart is still moving nearly tick for tick with 2008. IF this continues a sharp sell off in silver would begin aprox. Sept 26th. Who knows. Just interesting to watch the comparison.

  66. Gary

    If we had a crystal ball none of us would ever make a timing mistake. Unfortunately we don’t and we have to trade in real time.

    In real time there are warning signs. One can ignore them if they want or if they don’t mind riding out a D-wave.

    The vast majority of my subscribers can’t weather a D-wave, so I do my best to avoid them. If that means missing some upside, so be it.

  67. Gary

    I don’t think we are even close to the bubble phase yet. The fundamental driver for this C-wave has now been removed (QE1 & QE2).

    Now would be the most likely time for a severe D-wave correction as the deflationary forces drain liquidity from the system.

    Then when Bernanke panics during the dark days of 2012 and cranks up the printing presses again, we will have our fundamental driver for the bubble phase gold.

  68. Danno


    I agree. But we can’t really know what will happen either way. The market will do what the market wants to do and smash the plans of mice and men. If you are totally banking on a near term rise in gold that’s fine. But if your guess does not pan out, what is your fallback plan?

  69. Dan

    “Just watch and learn as gold breaches 1840 next week.”

    Guess Joseph is the self proclaimed teacher around here now?

    Weren’t you saying your back to school this week btw?

  70. Joseph Lemma

    Yup at school right now.

    Too many people are bearish on gold right now. If gold was going to go through a D-wave correction the miners would be acting weak here.

  71. Gary

    Gold will hold its purchasing power during a deflation but the price of gold is not going to skyrocket during a period when deflation is draining liquidity from the Globe.

    If you want to see how gold reacts during a deflation just look at 2008.

    At the beginning of the deflationary period 1 ounce of gold would buy six barrels of oil. By the end of the deflationary period 1 ounce of gold bought 24 barrels of oil. Gold held its value and actually increased purchasing power during the deflation, but the nominal price of gold went from a little over $1000 to $680.

  72. hamvestor

    Dan, lol. My experience over the years has been that the ones who come along proclaiming “watch and learn” ultimately turn out to be the ones most in need of an education.

  73. Greenspansconscience

    Gary’s caution is obviously warranted. However, there are a couple of things that are bothering me a bit.

    First, doesn’t the last month of consolidation in $gold argue against an imminent D-wave? In other words, aren’t D-waves typically moves straight down after hitting new all time highs? I know Gary has mentioned a grinding type D-wave, but is there any precedence for that?

    Second, the miners haven’t really participated in the euphoria. Gary has mentioned several times in the past that no C-wave has ever ended with the miners so close to their 200 dma. Has that suddenly changed or is there a first time for everything?

  74. tom

    D WAVE CAMP?I’m also not in a big D wave camp as there is a ton of cash out there looking for a home and I feel it will buy a Gold dip thus not letting Gold enter a true D wave.I do feel Gold will yo-yo around till the 200dma catches up as yes we got to far above it.If all that cash wasn’t around looking for a home Gold would likely enter a true D wave but not this time.jmho.Good Luck

  75. Silverhound


    It’s great to see you posting your idea’s but I would offer that a few more people might pay heed when you say “watch and learn” if you had the conviction to back your calls rather than make 300 trades a week because your trades go against you.

  76. Joseph Lemma


    “watch and learn” was a tongue in cheek comment. I’m so confused as to the direction of gold right now my neck hurts just from following the charts.

  77. St. Deluise

    stocks just relentless. i said “1220 by opex” last week just to be hyperbolic but that actually looks likely now.

    i could and have talked about the tepid buy volume in gold, or politics, constant support breaking, etc. but really all one needs to do is ask themselves why it is dropping while stocks are rallying like this– yesterday alongside a red dollar, even.

    have a nice opex, not trading. holding gold puts and dollar calls.

  78. Silverhound

    Be wary of the miners testing the underside of broken support before dropping away again…….I’d need to see them reclaim broken support and hold above before I was convinced of the rally continuing from here.

  79. Shalom Bernanke

    Not a bad opening, but no reason to add more here. Looks like I get another day off. πŸ™‚

    I’ll check back after lunch to see if any action is warranted, but for now I’m going outside and cut more firewood.

    Good luck.

  80. intelliblue2000

    Hi all – just curious, what are your thoughts on shorting the VXX? It seems to be a value destroying ETF. Either short it or sell naked calls (some brokers don’t have shares available to short).

    I know shorting is tough, but the VXX is no earnings surprises, no buy out rumor…etc, once the fear of a recession subside, I imagine investors will get complacent again and the VXX will drop?

  81. ALEX

    Blogger Joseph Lemma said…

    Marginal cost of gold production for the average company in GDX is almost $1600 and rising.

    no offense, but I couldnt find that to be true-below are quotes from some of the top 10 listings (all claim costs are dropping quarterly with lower oil prices too)

    EGO = “”During the second quarter, the Company achieved record earnings from its gold mining operations on sales of 162,164 ounces of gold at an average realized gold price of $1,510 and average cash operating costs of $397 per ounce. “

    AUY = ‘Cash costs were $399 per ounce in the quarter ended June 30, 2011, compared with $427 per ounce in the second quarter of 2010’

    gg = ‘Total cash costs were $185 per ounce of gold on a by-product basis. On a co-product basis, cash costs were $553 per ounce.’

    NEM = “The Company is maintaining its previously announced 2011 outlook for attributable gold production of 5.1 to 5.3 million ounces at CAS of between $560 and $590 per ounce “

    etc etc etc -record profits being declared.

    Quotes directly from earnings reports

  82. Joseph Lemma


    I’ve always stayed away from the vixx because you have to get the timing just right on those trades.

    Odds favor shorts positions in QQQ nd SPY at this point.

  83. ALEX


    I have Scottrade up & running (U.S.A.), but I cant get charts to come up. I can get refreshed updated prices, etc…but when I try a chart, it says the connection is lost.
    I also can execute buy or sell orders.

  84. intelliblue2000

    HI, I read some posts about brokers.

    I used to be with Schwab, but they don’t have some shares to be shorted. Plus their margin interest is high. I switched to Interactive Brokers, they have low commission costs and have shares to short. Plus their margin interest is much lower (less than 2%).

    I come to realize that even if I have don’t “borrow” from them (i.e. have more long position than short ones), they still charge interest, anytime you even short anything. But it was a low rate.

    Disclaimer – I don’t get paid anything by Interactive Broker to say this. Just sharing my experience.

  85. ALEX

    ok, can you explain your post?I may be overlooking something.

    I believe ‘marginal cost’ is what it would cost to produce 1 more unit.

    I cant see cash costs/ oz in the low $300-$500 resulting in $1600 Marginal costs, right? Or am I missing something.

    Regardless, they are all posting record earnings, boosting dividend, and attracting investors based on volume increasing…so not looking like a bad investment πŸ˜‰


  86. Moneyman

    Sold 30% of my long SPX here..Very nice profit..Will protect my gain this time.

    Long dollar and also bought a small gold position.

    Have a nice day all!! πŸ™‚

  87. ALEX

    Actually, I just caught this from you (below), so I see where you ‘re coming from.

    You want to hold miners that make real money, not just pro-forma profits.

    I have made great money buying RIC near $6 and it $12 ish today in 3 months

    EXK $7- $13 in 3 months

    and AUY was $11 , $17 today (3 months)

    60%+ gains? I dont want to invest in that?

  88. ALEX

    My scottrade is still ‘refreshing’ prices and all…maybe once you re logged in it’s ok. They seem to have a ‘high traffic’ problem. Busy days always cause issues ( I have trouble buying the last 10 minutes of the day sometimes…it just freezes).

  89. Joseph Lemma


    You’re right about the meaning of marginal costs.

    However,cash costs per ounce are just that, the total amount of cash that is “burned” to get an ounce of gold out ofthe ground.

    You also have to take into consideration machinery depreciation and replacement costs. Those ball mills aren’t cheap…

    Right now, there’s no-one making money mining gold in South Africa even though they all report record profits.

    Think about it like this:

    a kid sets up a lemonade stand/table and sells 20 bucks of lemonade that cost him 5 bucks to make. If the table’s leg breaks, did he really make 15 bucks?

  90. ALEX


    I’m still going to invest in that kids lemonade stand …for the long run..if he increases production and sales to 100 more buckets of $20/cost lemonade πŸ™‚

    Thanks for the interchange! ( But I still think miners have a ways to go %-wise, in my humble opinion)

  91. Joseph Lemma


    You seem to have picked the right small cap miners, so props to you.
    I’m just saying that profits are not that hot right now. Those cyanide and chemical costs could kill a few of the smaller miners if not properly hedged.

    As for SVM, yes, I think it’s probably worthless.

  92. Joseph Lemma


    Look at Kinross. If their Tasiast project does not pan out, low single digits are definitely on the cards. If that project has a CAPEX of 5 billion and the project turns out to be a fluke, I’m shorting it to zero.

    And no, this is not far-fetched. This is a hugely capital intensive business.

    Other miners run by idiots:

    ABX, CDE.

  93. Daniel

    Interesting Tweet from Nouriel Roubini!
    “Reactivation of Fed-ECB swap lines is backdoor FX intervention to stop fall (rise) of euro (dollar) given $ liquidity shortage in EZ banks”

  94. Leilani

    Check out biiwii. He is an excellent technician on selected individual junior miners. I have been a subscriber (a weekly letter) for over 3 years. He also give intraday updates via email occasionally.

  95. jeff

    Did anyone notice the trend line on GDX from the highs of march 14/08, Dec 7/10 and Sep 9/11 – predictive of a major decline or just interesting observation?

  96. Gold Lion

    With the ECB being backstopped with good old US dollars this head fake of an up move in the DX is just that, a head fake. Gold and silver are ready to resume their upward moves – IMHO

  97. Poly

    Sure is getting interesting. The this morning move has been impressive, on good volume, while yesterday’s puke out volume was very high, eclipsed (on an hourly) by the DCL and Sep 7th drops only. Very suggestive of a mid (stretched) cycle bottom.

    A poor performing daily cycle to date is not an unreasonable expectation, given the massive first daily cycle.

    On the flip side, we’ve had 6 bearish $120 cumulative down days, a bounce of sorts is expected, even if the path is down towards breaking the $1,904 DCL.

    So we’re back deep into the crossroads. We’ve regained the DC and IT cycle trend lines, which is positive. We have not yet broken the 8 day declining upper trend-line, a move above $1,830 would be a good break and bullish.

    So I’m banking half of the 3.8% gain from yesterday’s UGL purchase to reduce some exposure. Also bringing in a few of the leveraged call options, just to consolidate some gains. Leaving a decent core plus leverage in play, want to see some strong follow through during FOMC. I suspect we will reach $1,860 regardless of which way this rolls, but a good break of $1,890 would be needed now to get back “very” excited and much heavier.

  98. Ben


    You posted:

    200 AGQ @ 205.72 $41,144
    600 ZSL @ 12.54 $7,524

    Why wouldn’t you ‘hedge’ by selling $7524 worth of AGQ? You’d get a better result because you would be paying less management fee — $15k worth in fact — plus since they are daily 2x funds, you also have erosion on any oscillating share value.

  99. blammo

    Hedging AGQ with ZSL is like holding a live grenade in opposing hands and hoping the force of one exploding will negate the other.

    Sorry, it won’t work.

  100. wolf33

    sorry going to be long but thought a good article. Gold stocks are both growth and yield play.

    The significant divergence between the performance of the gold price and equities we’ve been highlighting, and taking advantage of, may be coming to an end. In his September Markets at a Glance piece, “Gold Stocks: Ready, Set,…”, Eric Sprott chimes in on the divergence between gold and gold stocks by saying, “we may be entering a new phase where the [gold] stocks react less harshly on gold down days, and outperform gold on days of strength.” Sprott, who has recently transitioned out of gold bullion and into gold equities, believes gold stocks represent a bona fide growth sector in an otherwise terrible equity market. Can gold really be a growth sector? Sprott highlights that, “the average cost of producing an ounce of gold today, all in, is now around $800. At $1,200 gold, these companies can capture roughly $400 in EBITDA. At $1,800 gold, however, they’re now capturing $1,000 per ounce in EBITDA – representing an increase of 150% in profit margin. That is significantly far above what any other equity sector has been able to generate over the past year.” In closing, Sprott says the market is only beginning to realize profit potential that gold equities offer at today’s prices. The Canaccord Genuity Precious Metals team also believes that equities are inexpensive relative to the gold price and to historical trading multiples. According to their research, prior to yesterday’s sell-off in gold, Senior and Intermediate gold equities were trading at P/NAV of 0.88x at $1,826, the sector discounting $1,666/oz or $189/oz lower gold price on average.

  101. wolf33

    back when the $ was making its low i bot a slug of call options. ended selling and made pennies. those options were out as far as i could go. the options were on uup.

  102. wolf33

    ric–could make a new year hign.

    the bigges(option) players will do best if silver stays in 40-41 on experation day. IF silver is say significantly da boyz hace lost control of the price of silver.
    have a few days to go.

  103. deshy


    Just wondering if you think we could have a shortened cycle in $GOLD given the several stretched cycles we have just had? Usually 20-28d but the last 2 have been around 40d. Now approaching day 15 of this one with a top on day 7. A swing low might make this a new cycle? Thoughts?

  104. RJ

    Love the gold COT report as a gold long!

    Drop in OI and commercial short covering.

    I hope this setup is similar to July 5 scenario.

  105. Poly

    @ Deshy, You mean yesterday as a DCL? Don’t see how, way too short and nothing about the move (like severity and volume) suggests a cycle low. A lot can happen and probably will happen in the next 5-20 trading days that will present a cycle low marking.

    IMO, we’re going to break either way and it should provide a big tell for where this IT cycle wants to go. FOMC next week could be the big moving event (of course gold will go where it wants anyway).
    If we drop, we could see 5-10 sharp down days and a failed daily cycle with a DCL somewhere in the low to mid $1,600’s. If we break higher, it should be a 5-10 day move to test $2,000, probably fall short and roll into a quick DCL, possibly supported by $1,920. I’m banking on the later scenario, but prepared for a failed cycle.

    I have one chart I’m tracking for this DC with these scenario’s.


  106. Farm Girl

    at ease – there can be a problem with K-1s in an IRA – unrelated business income. This is from Roger Conrad’s site:

    What About My IRA?
    There are some limitations on the favorable tax treatment for US-listed partnerships and limited liability companies held in tax-advantaged accounts such as IRAs and other qualified plans.

    The reason is that the IRS classifies some of the payments from MLPs as unrelated business taxable income (UBTI).

    Some of the UBTI distributions above a maximum allowance of $1,000 annually can be subject to tax. You’ll owe tax on the distributions you receive even though those distributions are coming from investments held in a tax-advantaged account. Also, note that this $1,000 maximum is for all income in an account; it’s not an allowance for each partnership held.
    There are two points to keep in mind about UBTI. First, there’s no format for reporting, so most investors leave PTPs inside qualified plans with little consequence. Second, because the majority of PTP distributions aren’t taxable income but are considered return of capital, even in the most extreme case IRA accounts can have a chunk of dividends paid well above the threshold of an additional filing.”

    In other words, you can ignore it and if they catch you say: “I’m sorry – didn’t know.” Or you can keep track of it. Hope this helps.

  107. Shalom Bernanke

    Poly’s chart looks good to me, either way. πŸ™‚

    I also agree the next few weeks will try peoples’ patience, possibly even to late Oct but I’d wager we’ve picked a direction before then. It hasn’t hurt owning some miners.

    I didn’t make any changes today and the plan remains the same.

    Take care and have a good weekend.

  108. Poly

    Thanks SB,

    I actually added a decent amount to my TGLDX collection yesterday, but they are in long family accounts, no redemption’s allowed there πŸ™‚

    Good weekend all.

  109. DP

    St. Deluise said…

    “…yes i am short gold via puts, and long UUP via calls…”

    UUP calls must be hell over-priced ’cause of hight volatility (Vega).

    You are not worried about it, are you?

  110. DP

    St. Deluise —

    How do you handle this issue of options over-pricing due to high volatility?

    Intrinsic value versus time value?

    Or look at Vega graph and say: “Well, here is the bump”

    Or calculate Black-Sholtz equation?

    Not kidding, just want to learn it for practical purposes.

  111. St. Deluise

    haha i don’t look at those graphs at all.. not that smart.

    i just pick expirations far enough away and trade them based on their underlying. usually out of the money.

    when /gc hit 1820 today i hit buy market on some 160 dec GLD put or another. totally brainless.

    (normally i don’t mess around with options at all but in this environment i sleep a little better knowing exactly what my risk is.)

  112. DP

    Poly —

    Thanks, that’s understandable.

    But no anyone can give me a hint how to approach that problem in real time.

    Basically, I don’t see an advise other than “don’t buy call at the bottoms”

  113. paul

    I got this mail from IB, wont this affect the markets???
    Margin Increases on Low Cap Securities
    As a result of recent market volatility, please be advised that IB is increasing the margin rates on low capitalization stocks (currently defined as companies with less than $250 million in market capitalization). The margin increases will occur in three steps beginning on Wednesday, September 21, 2011 and ending on Friday, September 23, 2011. The margin rates will increase to 50%, 75% and 100% at the open of business on 9/21/2011, 9/22/2011 and 9/23/2011, respectively

  114. Danno

    Ben & Blammo,

    All that matters is that in the end I make a large profit, but do so with an even larger margin of safety. With the hedge I built that is almost certain now.

    I ran the numbers and compared the charts. Hedging 200 shares of AGQ with 600 shares of ZSL will work and is far superior to hedging with put options or shorting AGQ.

    Good luck.

  115. DP

    St.Deluise —

    Thank you.

    What I was observing when buying DITM calls near the bottoms, is the Delta as a function of time was growing MUCH slower when underlying was growing with respect to what it was to be by theory.

    It looks like you are trying to get in the air with air-balloon, and you do getting detached from the surface, but the balloon has a huge hole, and the rate of your ascent strongly depends on the size of that hole.

    As long as you are up in the air, that effect if Vega influence disappears slowly, and option price catches-up.

    That’s very naive, but I basically quit buying calls near the bottoms and switched to leveraged ETF’s.

  116. Poly


    Really, that is the best answer, of course rather simplified. But in all honesty, long speculative calls on there own, for the most part are a losing proposition. That too might be going overboard, but attempting to answer such a complex question on a blog comments section is not going to work.
    I suggest searching online, plenty of free online resources you could get your teeth into. I’ve seen your posts, it will be easy for you to grasp.

  117. DP

    Poly, St.Deluise —

    Isn’t a good idea to buy protective puts for gold/miners to insure against the first (down) scenario?

    Still loaded with NUGT up to the hilt, also 1/3 of the NUGT position in QLD.

  118. St. Deluise

    yeah that’s why i avoid ITM options in general. they’re just too sloppy. i get the impression there’s some bank computer just arbing the hell out of them all day selling them to greedy people looking for 300%x gains in an hour.

    ideally what i like to do is get an OTM with a strike a little past my target. then you can basically throw the greeks out the window and even with an off the cuff market order prices don’t slip around more than a nickel.

    anyway have a good weekend everyone. joseph i’m sorry for the bad vibes earlier.

  119. jeff

    DP. It is not easy. You need to estimate how much each greek parameter will change (price change (and change in delta), timing and volatility when its high). I’d ignore interest rates effect unless you think yields will swing wildly durin your trade. Then use the greek value to estimate the price change range. You will end up with a range of outcomes depending on what happens to price, time, volatility, interest rates etc.

    Then you need to make your own risk vs return tradeoff. Pro traders have nice graphing packages to chart this out. This is sufficient description

    The big challenge you have is “guessing” the change in volatilty, i.e will a drop in volatility negate the any price appreciation you expect. So if volatility drops 5%, can you still make money? But what if it drops 10%?

  120. DP

    Jeff —

    Thanks you.

    Will take a look at your link and google it.

    Talk to you later.

    Have a good weekend, I need to run.

  121. ALEX

    Blogger oa92000 said…

    do you still own pCX?

    September 16, 2011 1:06 PM

    Actually I sold all but 1 long position yesterday( & I posted yesterday September 15, 2011 1:38 PM) and did so to buy Miners. I just looked when I read your post (yikes). I bought more RIC and GPL and XRA yesterday and this a.m.

    and thats due to this chart ( posted also yesterday, but maybe some missed it).

    I believe miners bottomed again, and Gold will go Hundreds higher from here.

    Best wishes

  122. Moneyman

    Thanks alex!

    Saw your charts yesterday and it was one of the reasons that I dared to buy back gold today. Bought it back at 1778. Just w8 and see now.

    Very appreciated!

  123. ALEX


    Great πŸ™‚ I was just looking at some of the miners and quite a few caught on today, even bouncing off their 20sma or regaining it ( Ric, GPL, AXU ,NGD, etc)

    I think it looks good

  124. Moneyman


    Yeah I still have this D-wave scenario in my head, but its important to see the other side of the story also..We might go higher here..A lot higher!!

    Have a nice weekend! πŸ™‚

  125. Slumdog

    Two Charts:


    Alex: “I believe miners bottomed again, and Gold will go Hundreds higher from here.”

    Slumdog: Gold double topped. The DSI reverasl formation, my term, set up on the last top. The trigger point was 1800. When 1800 was touched, the market did what it does in a highly stressed circumstance, it continued the reversal.

    I’m kicking myself that I didn’t see this when it formed. Note to self. Do something about it.

    The target drop is to what here is viewed as the DCL (see Poly’s chart). That’s the 1680 range.

    What just happened today is a common though so unenjoyed experience if one believes the DSI will prevail. It returned to the trigger point, 1800 range.

    What’s next? There are 4 possible scenarios because this is a complex pattern, not because the pattern is complex but because the bounce back to the trigger point occurred.

    A rise back to the high (what Alex thinks). This would be a triple top, and a drop from there will be extremely severe, with a drop to 1460 being the most assured and a drop to 1140 being the extreme. This would be what Gary refers to as the D Wave.

    Sideways chop here for a very short while and then a high probability drop to 1680 and as low as 1460. This sideways slashing would be another “indecision” moment, which will either load the boat with those who think higher or lower is in the cards. IMO, if one can measure which is prevailing in this short time window, based on volume probably and any other indicator which can truly identify BoW SoS, then the direction which follows will be obvious and highly probable.

    Lastly, there are 2 much less frequently seen scenarios. The first, which I rule out at this time, is a takeoff for a much higher high. If that were to happen, we would undoubtedly see within a few weeks max, 2140, with a high of 2700. There’s nothing in the pattern that indicates this can’t happen, but the drop of yesterday I think did serious psychological damage to the to the moon group. And sideways trade out, as if this event, the high and low, were an engulfment of the energy to move in either direction, like an outside bar due to the volume in each direction.

    My guess: probably sideways serious chop for a few sessions, like up to 7, and then a sudden drop to 1680, which if it speeds along will drive into the high 14’s to very low 1600’s. An attractive target number would be 1500.

    If the market heads seriously down on Monday, we will know this was a tag of the trigger point, and the severity of the decline will be very real.

    That’s the news from Lake Woebegone.

  126. Slumdog

    Alex, a question of you, plz.
    You posted this:

    On that GDX, do you see the dynamite triangle that just formed? Those are the 3 bars prior to your vertically ellipse that you’ve drawn, which is the reversal candle. They’re symetrical, one inside the other. That was the trigger to this rapid drop.

    The gold market at this time is set up as explosive, with a reversal setup and a dynamite triangle. The odds of a major move now are very high. Very rarely, the dynamite turns out to be dud, and I’ve never seen one associated with a DSI not blow up big time. 3X the long, initiating bar, either direction, and when that starts, it’s the fuse that will fuel the DSI to either complete or to be rejected.

    So, your expected outcome of many hundreds above the prior top could now occur also. On GDX, the aternative up count imo is 70+- 2.

  127. NJ

    We now have had several sessions since the 2B reversal. Is there a maximum number of sessions that need to pass before we can call the 2B pattern a failure? I thought we needed to drop the within the next day or 2 for the 2B to be a valid reversal, and since we have not, the 2b is invalid, albeit we may drop or head to new highs.

  128. NJ

    Hi Gary:

    A quick thought: Since QE and massive Government intervention, we have seen daily and weekly cycles stretch. How about the Yearly and 4 year for Equities also stretch?

    We had the longest 4 year cycle from 2002-2009 and while the expectation is for this 4 year cycle to be short, given all the intervention, maybe 6or 7 year cycle is the new 4 year cycle?

    I know we track IT cycles for clues on yearly cycles and what our current expectation is, but thought I’d bring this up in order to keep an open mind with cycles (Not that you need to be told! πŸ™‚ )

    Also, since Cycles primarily are a tool for human emotions, maybe it takes longer (6 years) for us humans than before, thanks to Technology / Government / Central Bankers Etc.


  129. Gary

    usually what happens after a very stretched cycle is we will get a short cycle to even out the timeline. That’s why I’m expecting a four year cycle low in 2012 instead of 2013.

  130. intelliblue2000

    Gary – with the US gov’t essentially giving the European central banks a US dollar credit line, do you think it will prevent the USD from rising as much?

    From my simplistic point of view, the “supply” of the US dollar is no long constraint since our gov’t is giving the European banks a lot of liquidity.

    Just curious about your thoughts.

  131. ALEX


    I basically agree with what you said too. Gold looks ready to move and you mentioned 2140 ( my target is the same (minimum) if the move is up with good buying volume.

    Could it triple top? YES- but a D-Wave after a triple top? Not sure.
    2006 C-wave top and 2004 were straight up, and straight down.

    You did say on your post stamped “September 16, 2011 9:56 PM” that you had a question. I didnt see the question, but maybe I can want to know if I see any chance of failure in Golds upside? YES-Nxt post-

  132. ALEX

    I always have 2 scenarios too. I always have a ‘what if it doesnt do what I am thinking I see happening…?” NOTHING in this market is 100% _ but when I look at GLD and GDX and especially the buying that came in on many individual Miners at the 20sma…it was what I had said I was looking for Monday when I also posted a temporary ‘top’ “doji” on GDX.

    Buyers look to be coming back in here.

  133. ALEX


    My buying of certain Miners is not long term ( like for yrs).
    I held on and rode the miners down too long in 2004 and they really do lose 1/2 their value or more. Even if they recover later on, it’s better to re buy them lower πŸ™‚

  134. ALEX


    I am in front of a computer each day, so I tend to do things differently ( I think).

    I bought RIC and EXK in Mid June and still own some from then, but I added on the way up, and sold recently, so now I am re accumulating what I sold last week.

    So I may be fairly heavily invested , but since some of it is Much lower ( like both positions I got in near $7) I can afford to be wrong and jump out, even if I’m heavy.

    For most– I would say if you trust the set up, take a bite and add if it looks good on the way up?

  135. ALEX

    I was re-reading my earlier post,and should re-note what I meant. I bought EXK & RIC in mid June with other miners ,sold 1/2 of many positions recently , but added back recently as the GDX dipped down. ( so I tend to trade in and out if I think I see reason to)

    The part I mis-stated in an earlier post was that I sold half my position on EXT & RIC & re-bought. I sold 1/2 my EXK and all of my RIC…and just re-bought. I just wanted to be accurate,because I sold all my Ric above $10…and had to repurchase a little higher. RIC didn’t even pullback as expected.

  136. diana

    Thanks, Alex.

    After much procrastination, I bought some miners in Dec. 2008 at what turned out to be the low, and they have done fantastically – First Majestic at 1.54, SLW at 4.23, etc.

    I read some recommendations recently, and, wishing I had bought more of those, I increased my positions as well as picking up some EXK, AXU…. Now I wonder if stocks will decline much more.

    I hate to have to monitor the situation every day, and would much prefer to go old turkey. But I could sell the more recent stocks (still a little bit in the “green”) and buy back later. Gary’s still predicting a drop in the market, correct?

    It’s so much easier to buy when the stock is going up, than to buy when it’s going down! πŸ™‚

  137. intelliblue2000

    Dianna – I hear you about monitoring stocks. I am just a working mule, I don’t always have time to monitor the market. I can maybe get away a few times a day to peek at the headlines, but for the most part, we are just scared to lose the jobs and continue to slave away at our desks.

  138. Danno

    Been watching gold every day since 2004. Every. Day.

    Gold here, feels like a whale that just breached the surface and is slowly rolling over for a dive down to the 200MA.

    People buying up miners here should be okay if you don’t mind hanging on for 6 to 18 months. But it is not safe to buy options on miners (or options on gold for that matter).

    I believe Gary is right. The odds of a D wave correction are real.

    Whales always return to the surface, but they can dive deep and stay down a long time.

    Good luck.

  139. ALEX

    Blogger diana said…

    Thanks, Alex.

    After much procrastination, I bought some miners in Dec. 2008 at what turned out to be the low, and they have done fantastically – First Majestic at 1.54, SLW at 4.23, etc.

    Those look like FIRE SALES now at those prices…but I know that it was quite a ride. I rode “AG” (first Majestic) a lot of that way too, and I remember it diving $16 to $10 in Jan…but then to $18+ (then to $14, then $26)!!

    YOU are a Professional bullrider!

  140. Edwin

    the possibilities..

    damage on the silver and gold bullion. i am going long next week if this keeps up.

    what a smack down today..

    breaking 1101 on SPX this may be possible..

Comments are closed.