293 thoughts on “PORTFOLIO CHANGE

  1. St. Deluise

    new spy system buy: 117.2 stop 114.4

    but i’m going to wait for a bit of a retrace first. hopefully gets down to 115 to add.

    gold is not keeping the pace here at all.

  2. coolkevs

    Bullish price flip in the SP futures confirming the DeMark DAILY Buy Signal from last week. Also being confirmed in the other indices – this rally should be different than the previous ones as selling exhaustion was achieved and we are out of the May-September selling window.

  3. Vodni

    Gold BB is now nicely squeezed on the 1-hour chart… waiting impatiently to see in which direction the breakout in the next hours will be.

  4. ver

    Cab anyone here share the good/bad/ugly on CEF, as a fund/vehicle? I know it’s a mix of silver and gold but I’m wondering if there are any tax considerations or other caveats about it’s performance relative to GLD and SLV.


  5. Natanarchist


    I am al for calling slime balls, slime balls, buy to refer to Jim Sinclair and Trader Dan as such, has me wondering if you have ever read their work. Jim Sinclair has never recommended anyone but professionals trade gold. He advocates buying and holding physical only. Therefore there is ” no trade” that could go against him. Trader Dan provides commentary on mostly on PM’s, pm stocks and commodities. I have never read once any position he has taken. I have never read once where advocated anyone take any position on anything. I am quite confident in saying Jim Sinclair knows more about the inner workings on the Crimex and LBMA than you. Using their commentary as trading advice is your mistake.

    Lastly you can ignore Gary’s on the latest position, however, you must realize why this blog is called the Smart Money Tracker. You and I and everyone else on this blog are not the Smart money in the Pm market. If the smart money is telling us something, best to listen.

  6. MrMiyagi

    AAPL just turned and went red. Steve Jobs’s death has saddened me, 56 is too young and to know that it is coming for a few years must be crazy.

  7. Robert

    Natanarchist ,

    As the person who posted Norcini’s comments I agree with you 100% .These guys know more about trading than Danno will ever know in his lifetime–just seems like sour grapes to me —

  8. Dan


    Nothings wrong with the comment system. The system simply identified you as a spammer because you post too much nonsense.

    Am glad the vast majority of discussions now take place on the subscribers forum.

  9. Danno

    I am not ignoring Gary’s advice. Quite the contrary.

    Jim Sinclair is scum. Total scum and so is his lap dog Dan whatshisface. Yes, I have read Sinclair’s blog since 2004 and I have seen him screw his followers over with idiotic promises of exact price targets with exact dates. Impossible promises that no one should ever attempt to make. I could go on but those two clowns are not worth the press of another key.

  10. sophia

    Mr M,

    It feels like it indeed, but with this market, we never know…It felt like the end of the world on Tuesday 20 minutes before the bell…

  11. Vonda


    You kicked you-know-what with that UPRO entry the other day!

    Wish I had had the fortitude to hang on…if you ever decide to teach a charting class, I’ll be the first to register.

  12. Natanarchist


    I don’t trade copper. I just watch it. Usually if copper is going up, PM’s are up.

    Danno, you may have read Sinclair since, ’04, but clearly you don’t understand what you are reading.
    1. Trader Dan has never ” guaranteed anything, to anyone, with respect to price.

    2. Yes Jim Sinclair has called out price targets and even put his money where his mouth was with his 1650 Gold call by Jan. 11 2011. Now he made the call in ’06. So if you followed his advice since then, buying physical only regularly on dips, one would be up Huge, I know my physical is up huge.

    No, me thinks you tried to trade based on FREE commentary and it didn’t work out to well for you, so you are blaming anyone but yourself. Next time maybe follow John Nadler FREE commentary. Haha. Think for yourself and take responsibility for your actions.

  13. Natanarchist

    Danno, I know exactly what I am talking about and you can’t back up your comments. You can call JS and Trader Dan anything you want, but your reason,s are nothing but fallacies and anyone who has read JS mindset knows exactly what JS tells readers to do. Buy physical. Obviously, you didn’t listen. Your hedging strategy in paper gold/ silver must not be working out, That strategy is 100% contrary to everything JS advocates. Bu you have been reading him for 7 years.

  14. Danno

    Jim Sinclair made a prediction about midway through some year. I forget exactly what year. It was maybe 2007. He said that gold would hit a certain number by that coming January. He was so confident that he ‘promised’ the loyal followers that gold would surpass the number by January. His exact words were, “I promise you.” His exact words. Of course then he covered his rear by scolding his readers not to attempt anything foolish like taking on additional risk. Well, of course many, many of his readers could not resist taking on additional risk when the guru they worshiped made them such an incredible promise. Of course you can guess what happened. Gold came nowhere near Sinclair’s number by January. Not even close. His prediction and promise was a total and complete fail. So what did he do? Come January did he admit he was wrong? Of course not. He simply ‘forgot’ that he had ever said anything. And this enraged his followers. I was one of the lucky ones. I was already committed to a long term trade and did not even have the opportunity to trade based on Sinclair’s promise. But when I saw what had happened and heard the Sinclair was getting **death threats** I emailed him and asked him why he did not just come clean and apologize to calm the water. No response. So I asked ‘trader’ Dan. Oh, did I receive a response. I receive an email so laced with hate and foul language I was completely taken aback. Clearly he had been inundated by hysterical followers. And all this could have been avoided had Sinclair’s legendary pride not caused him to do something foolish that hurt a lot of people. Believe what you want to believe. That is all I have to say about those two clowns.

  15. Natanarchist


    Sinclair made the “1650 by Jan 11 2011” in 2006. He offered a million dollars to anyone who wanted to challenge that call. No one took his offer. He never backed off that call. He never pretended he didn’t make that call. So he was off by 6 months from a call made 5 years earlier. Big deal. He didn’t tell you to trade on that call did he? He didn’t tell you to use leverage. He didn’t tell you to buy paper gold ETF. No he advocated buy and hold physical. And anyone who followed his words has been well rewarded. That is all that matters. And one got that simple advice for free. If you can post JS advocating anything but buying physical gold, please post the date he wrote something to the contrary.

  16. Danno

    Once again you are totally clueless. You don’t even know what year I am talking about. It was way before his more recent predictions.

  17. 86d4life

    She`s gone man. I think mine was a few cents lower than yours, but, after all, your The Man, and I`m just trying to keep up!! I dumped on that last bounce, but somehow I still have a feeling it`s going to blow through before close. Bounced off that same level 4 times today and still hanging, lurking…….

  18. William Wallace

    at ease,

    Yeah, silver futures for now. Silver looks a bit too stretched below the 150sma to me, even if gold decides to bounce around for a bit I think silver wants to move out of this coil back up to the 150sma.

  19. Natanarchist

    You wrote. ” Jim Sinclair made a prediction about midway through some year. I forget exactly what year. It was maybe 2007. He said that gold would hit a certain number by that coming January.”

    That is not correct. The calls was exactly as I said it was:
    Gold will trade at 1650 or above by Jan 11 2011. The call was made in 2006. And again contrary to your claim, he never backed off the call.

    Did you not read the link I posted. Trader Dan confirms that JS made the 1650 call 5 years earlier. So sorry pal, you are wrong. But you can still think he is bad guy or slime ball, but at least get his words right, especially if you read him everyday.

  20. Danno

    Please stop already. I know the numbers and predictions you are referring to. You simply were not around the year that Jim made his total fail call. If I can dig up the details I will post them here.

  21. Danno

    If I remember correctly, I believe it was the Summer of 2007 that Sinclair promised gold would hit $1200 by January 2008.

  22. Natanarchist

    Ckpc. Ignore my posts. However, I choose not to let danno make false statements so newbie folks don’t act on his words like he knows what he is talking about.

  23. Haggerty


    I was looking the 5 minute chart on the SPY, and there was a huge red candle at like 310…..was that another fat finger moment, I was using the charts from my scottrade account, just curious if anyone else sees that

  24. Danno

    Okay pal. You need to start watching your mouth now. I am not in any way, shape or form lying or exaggerating. You clearly have not been in the gold game very long. That’s it. I’m done. Good luck in your trades.

  25. William Wallace


    I believe we are going to see a decent bear market rally and the bottom is in, the only reason I took off the UPRO today is because I would like to see if the market sells off with the jobs number tomorrow, regardless I will be putting it back on tomorrow.

  26. Shalom Bernanke

    I’m not familiar enough with Jim Sinclair, but from what I’ve read he seems to have been solidly long a secular bull market. Nothing wrong with that, even if he does miss a specific target by $100-$200 here and there. Did he recommend people sell at that target, or was it meant as a place to expect gold to consolidate?

    He’s done very well being long gold with conviction. Just lately, it can’t be easy watching his TRX get cut in half while staying focused on the bigger picture.

  27. Shalom Bernanke

    One thing for sure, I’d rather take J Sinclair’s advice than Tim Knight. πŸ™‚

    And before anybody gets their panties bunched up, I like Tim and think he’d be fun at parties. I just wouldn’t put any money in his ideas.

  28. Razvan

    Gary is the man! He is ducking these market swings like ‘Prettyboy’ Floyd Mayweather is ducking punches in the ring πŸ˜›

  29. 86d4life

    I hear you. Just when I start hearing about banks getting shut down, euro down, dollar up, etc, well, let`s just see. Look at upro now. I thought you were usually trading tqqq?

  30. diana

    The advantage of being in a bull market is that even if it corrects, it eventually goes back up again. As long as one holds rather than sells on big dips, you don’t lose.

    I like Sinclair, and have put a lot of faith in his recommendations, all of which are doing great.

  31. riley

    Don’t post much but like to thank SB, WW, Poly, and all. Went long gold futures last night. Was going to dump but feel better with others on board. WW you are getting e.s.p. like calls, cool.

  32. MrMiyagi

    10sma on SPX is at 1145, depending on the job numbers (which I think will probably be “massaged”) even if it goes down I don’t think 1120 would be in play; mind you I would not mind seeing it at all.

  33. Shalom Bernanke

    Thanks riley, you’re on the right side as long as you have a position size that will let you stay on the bull without doubting yourself and forcing an error such as selling weakness or taking profits too soon.

    Both errors are a function of trading over one’s head, so to speak. Proper sizing lets one see straight no matter what comes their way.

  34. 86d4life

    I noticed AGQ is having a 2-1 split on the 13th. Anybody have any feelings on possible ramifications besides twice as many shares at half the price?

  35. MrMiyagi

    If they banned all felonious rats from trading, being CEOs, sitting on boards and what have you it would be most of the bigshots (including presidents). That’s how they get ahead, den of thieves.

  36. SF Giants Fan

    Info on AGQ split

    The split will apply to shareholders of record as of the close of the markets on October 10, 2011, payable after the close of the markets on October 12, 2011. The fund will trade at its post-split price on October 13, 2011. The ticker symbol and CUSIP number for the fund will not change.

  37. riley

    Thanks S.B. have a core in pm’s since 2009. On them until bull is over. Just trade the futures, been wary of late, finally pulled trigger when sentiment down and futures held above 1600. In at 1640, will wait and see. Like see push to 1720 but will let market speak.

  38. MrMiyagi

    I have observed that in almost all cases of stock splits the immediate result is a rise in the price; new buyers finding it “affordable”.
    Then it returns to where it was, unless a move was warranted.

  39. 86d4life

    if I`m understanding you correctly, yes. The, in effect ex-dividend date is the 10th. If you don`t own shares on or by the 10th, no extra little shares.

    At Ease, I was kind of wondering something along the same lines. I remember when they did that with Berkshire B shares; in essence to make them more affordable and saleable to Joe 6 pack. Or was it Joe the Plumber. Doesn`t matter I guess. After the 3 stooges got done with him, there was nothing left anyhow……..

  40. 86d4life

    Mr M,
    That could just about work out too since we`re looking at the potential explosive move. But if it`s so explosive, how could you even tell?? Like which came first; the explosive egg or the splitting chicken?

  41. William Wallace


    Thats what it looks like, reason I put on the short at the close…but I think the bottom is in and im not putting too much weight on the declining volume. I would expect that the move out of a DCL would be on declining volume.

  42. Gary

    Yes it’s a myth that rallies have to occur on rising volume. Most rallies may start with a few heavy days but then fade off to normal or declining volume.

  43. ...at ease

    86/SF Giants,
    Just curious on the split, as I bought a small amount today. So if I want to keep my full shares before the split, have to be out by the 10th and until the 13th to have split shares.

  44. Haggerty

    Thanks for that, I had the chart on all day, when I came back to it towards the close I had a huge candle at that time. Must of just been my screen then

  45. William Wallace

    at ease,

    Yes that is a buying W2 swoop, I acted on it today when I bought Silver futures…note that the swoop only confirms a short term move higher and not necessarily a long term one, meaning gold could reverse in a few days and break back below the 10sma…if that occurs it is almost certain that we will see new lows.

  46. 86d4life

    so how do we tell a W2 swoop from a regular swoop?

    At Ease,
    You have to be a share holder of record on the 10th to qualify for the split.

  47. William Wallace


    This is actually a regular swoop, the ideal swoop is when the 10sma has a nice round bottom, is already turning up and pokes the bottom of the candle upward, which usually occurs off of a V bottom.

  48. Dan

    One thing I noticed is this rally is definitely climbing a wall of fear. Pretty much every blog and subscription I follow is either bearish or very cautious right now. This is really the only place where people are buying and staying positive. Honestly cant remember a time like this before. It’s a really good sign IMO.

  49. 86d4life

    Sorry man. I`m getting so tired, I really don`t follow. It will probably make great sense tomorrow. Thanks for the input. Tomorrow morning we can butt heads for the low upro πŸ™‚

  50. PST

    At Ease,
    You don’t need to worry about selling and reentering AGQ because of the stock split. The split is more of an issue for the custodian. Basically trades settle T+3 (trade date + 3 days), so if you purchase the stock on 10/10, then it’s settled and credited to your account on 10/13. All they are saying is that the owner on record by 10/10 will be credited the additional shares from a bookkeeping perspective. People who purchase the stock on 10/11 and 10/12 won’t have their account value cut in half because of the split. Everyone is made whole.

  51. Anthony

    Gary is right about volume. Volume may have worked in the past, but in my opinion its usefulness is akin to that of the NFL combine since it lead to the drafting of Tom Brady in the 6th Round of the draft. Reading conventional volume bars now is a distraction imo. Keep it simple. The only volume that I utilize now in a complimentary capacity is that of OBV-On Balance Volume. It works well as a side by side with my linear regression time series forecast modeling. Use it to spot extremes on the particular timeframe that you happen to be trading on. When OBV hits the bottom of its scale look for opportunities to buy, when OBV hits the top look for opportunities to sell . Stay the course. If OBV has hit top scale and you see a selloff, with OBV moving down in conjunction, dont look to buy again ultimately until OBV tocuhes the bottom of it’s scale particular to timeframe. In other words use OBV more like a sentiment indicator of extremes and I’ll promise you’ll have success.

  52. Shalom Bernanke

    With the recent spike in volatility in both directions, I have decided not to get involved with any leveraged etfs. I’m not saying we see ’08 type moves again, but if we do, these etfs could be widowmakers once again.

    They put many traders out of business in ’08, and with the heightened volatility I believe the 1x funds should offer enough opportunity while making it much easier to stay on the bull.

  53. Danno

    If silver sees another leg down it will most likely happen right about the time AGQ splits. I would not get my AGQ hopes too high just yet. Not saying don’t buy it. Just be careful.

  54. Anthony

    The best way to leverage is utilize options that partake in the CBOEs penny pilot program only. I wont touch any other types of options. I love penny pilot. Bid asks spreads on options as tight as bid ask spreads on blue chip stocks. It’s nice not getting screwed right out of the gate. And yes SLV is part of the penny pilot program I believe.

  55. Danno

    Well, ZSL (double short silver) was certainly a dog even under ideal conditions. Once a person is 100% convinced silver has bottomed ZSL could be a spectacular short trade.

  56. Matt


    I am intrigued by your OBV/Linear Regression analysis. Any chance you can elaborate a little? Do you view OBV on a daily? Does this work for futures? What parameters are you using for Linear Regression? Thanks, I appreciate it.

  57. Gold Lion

    Yep, no manipulation going on..at all. From Ed Steer’s Gold and Silver Daily…”Riddle me this…

    CME margin for 1 silver contract: $24,975

    CME margin for 1 gold contract: $11,475

    CME margin for 1 basket of insolvent too-big-to-fail banks: $3,500

    How about this…The criminals at the CME set the table for JPM to get out of their illegal naked short positions in gold and silver while at the same time suck as many fools into buying the banksters garbage and the entire time the CFTC ignores the crime in progress. How special!”

    My sentiments exactly

  58. Gary

    That one’s easy. Silver is many times more volatile than either gold or banks. Not to mention you can’t buy futures on banks.

    It amazes me the nonsensical information people will come up with to prove an erroneous assumption.

  59. St. Deluise

    still long spy (and short gold, unforunately)

    will exit spy at 117.4 per model. there’s got to be SOME pullback right? sheesh.

    holding gold short until i see people buy it which absolutely has not happened since august. will add to it at 1681 if it can tap it this morning. uncle point 1720.

  60. Shalom Bernanke


    I am unfamiliar with the penny pilot program in options, but would think it’s the exchange asking market makers (bookies) to tighten up the spread so options look more attractive to retail customers. Yet the market is the market, only created by legitimate bids and offers, regardless of how the specialist paints it.

    For example, say a call is has real buyers in size bid at $1, and people willing to sell at $2. The exchanges penny program has the specialist keep a penny spread anywhere in between, maybe he shows his book as $1.90-1.91 making retail bidders feel comfortable to buy. One buys at $1.91 thinking there is a bid at $1.90 but that is only the specialist playing hocus pocus b/c he knows the legitimate bids are .90 lower at $1.00 which is where a customer is likely to get filled if they wanted out.

    Seems to me it’s likely another way to mislead retail folks. Like I said, I don’t know enough about the program, but options in general are a suckers bet even for those that make money. The ones that make money in options (especially buying) have success because they are timing the underlying vehicle well enough that they still get to keep some profit after getting skimmed, but they are getting a hatchet job nonetheless.

  61. Natanarchist

    Silver demand is quite high. The only way the paper silver shorts will be able to get silver for delivery will be through higher prices.

    Gary, with respect to the margin rates. I think most people would agree that it makes sense for an exchange to protect itself from volatility with proper margins. However, as financial stocks were falling, the CME lowered margin rates. Yeah, that makes sense unless you want to increase speculation in bankrupt financials thereby creating the perception that all is well. But I am sure that’s not the case and this is a normal practice.

    Now, why is it that the exchanges can not have preset increases/ decreases in margin as volatility of the stock or commodity swings in price? Wouldn ‘t that be more transparent and allow traders to know exactly when an increase is coming? Of course that would take away the element of surprise and control away from ” unseen” forces.

  62. Shalom Bernanke

    If the average range expands 10% over any week, raise margins 10% on the index and vice versa, no matter what the vehicle.

    Making it a stated policy would go a long way towards addressing manipulation accusations.

    Bottom line is the directors can change the rules and often get in front of the change to enrich themselves. Look into the Hunt brothers and who made billions while driving the Hunts to bankruptcy.

  63. Robert

    To say there is no manipulation in the gold/silver markets at this point is just ridiculous, sorry Gary .Maybe someone could explain to me why most of the selling takes place at 3A.M.-
    They will attack gold every day, no matter what. Some days they succeed, some they fail.
    All markets are manipulated and gold and silver are no different.

  64. St. Deluise

    3AM is when the european markets open.

    obviously people are going to belive what they want. if you really think these metals are manipulated why are you trading them?

  65. Shalom Bernanke

    St Deluise,

    That’s an easy question, b/c I still manage to make money. It doesn’t matter if the horse race is fixed as long as you know what horse to bet.

    For example, use margin hikes that smash metals as an opportunity to buy, rather than being forced to sell.

  66. Razvan

    “Maybe someone could explain to me why most of the selling takes place at 3A.M.”

    A big player is taking advantage of the low volume to push the market in a direction most likely to set off stops…happens all the time in the currency markets. This is not manipulation! If you had a big enough account that you could set off stops you would do it too. It is an easy way to make money.

  67. Gary

    All markets are manipulated to some extent in the short term but no one can affect the secular trend. Any attempt to do so will just accelerate the rise because it will create artificially low prices and shortages. Shortages ultimately lead to much higher prices faster than would occur normally.

    The conspiracy bugs apparently don’t understand how the laws of supply and demand work.

  68. Robert


    I agree with you –it drives the price down and causes more buying at a lower price . Over the course of the eleven year PM bull market, gold is actually DOWN in COMEX trading hours on a cumulative basis. Think about it – gold rose from $250 in 2000 to $1,900 in 2011, with the great majority of VOLUME trading on the COMEX, yet gold is DOWN in New York trading hours, and obviously UP dramatically in Asia, where PHYSICAL, not PAPER gold is being transacted .My point being the comex is about as corrupt as a market can be

  69. Shalom Bernanke

    The more charts I examine, the more silver and silver miners are looking like the best vehicles for the next larger move (many months). I’m not the best at interpreting charts, that’s why I subscribe to Gary, but this last 6 months has done a lot to consolidate silver’s 300% runup from late 2010.

    I’m not saying silver can’t drop to the mid 20’s again before making the huge move higher, but the upside significantly outweighs a possible downside of 15% at most.

  70. Gary

    While I don’t buy it, if it’s true, then you should thank them as they are making you more money faster than would have occurred naturally.

    Now if you are trying to trade short term swings based on YOUR interpretation of where price SHOULD BE then maybe you are getting screwed. But then again trying to force the market to move to ones own personal expectations never has been a very profitable strategy.

    If you are worried about short term manipulation you can easily defeat it and profit from it by just holding long term and quit trying to trade short term swings.

  71. Gary

    It’s normal for two strong up days to have a consolidation day as short term traders take profits.

    Folks we should now be in a period where there’s just nothing to do for the next 4-15 weeks.

    Get out of the house and go enjoy your life for a while.

  72. 86d4life

    W2 is sequestered away in his cave regarding his upro trade. Personally I will start to add back in if I can get it under 49. Hope this helps.

  73. Wav_ridah

    $TICK!!! Sure you heard of it. If not its a fantastic tool for going long. $TICK, $TICKQ, $TICKA are all great indicators of possible institutional buying. Weekly $TICK looks absolutely bullish. $TICKQ looks even better.

  74. xoxo

    anyone can give me a comment on the split of AGQ?

    i have sell put AGQ at 90 strike, will it be affected next week with the split? thanks!

  75. Gary

    Take your put off immediately. A split is essentially meaningless. The shares are doubled and the price is halved. The stock is valued exactly the same as before the split. If you own calls or puts they will also be doubled and recalculated so there is no change.

    If you don’t understand how splits work then you definitely have no business playing with options.

  76. Gary

    The S&P is down 3 points after three really strong up days. 3 points is a flash crash?

    People you really need to stop watching the intraday wiggles. The market can put in a consolidation day after three up days. That’s not at all unusual.

  77. St. Deluise

    heh i figured it would be something inane. dollar’s excuse to resume rallying.

    SPY hanging in there but i would guess it succombs eventually this afternoon. still bullish.

    gold still, and has been since the (first) crash, looks like complete trainwreck. no one is going to buy it until it tests or makes a new low.

  78. ckpc

    There is much confusion on the premium board regarding the silver stop.
    Please clarify that you mean the “spot price of silver” vs. the SLV price. Your meaning is ambiguous to many over there.

  79. Danno

    If silver is destined for another leg down I doubt this is it just yet. I’d say it will happen in 3-10 more trading days. This is just a warning. So buyer beware. However, puts on AGQ is very very unwise. Listen to Gary.

  80. ckpc

    Did Gary take off to climb?
    He really needs to get over to the premium site and sort out the mess.

    Or maybe some of you experienced members can help provide clarity over there, if you don’t mind.

  81. St. Deluise

    ckpc, ‘spot price’ of silver is something like silver futures (/si) or go to a bullion site and they usually have charts there.

    or you can go here: http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=SI

    right now it’s basically $31 even

    not a subscriber so don’t know what gary’s saying but i’m not seeing any reason to be buying anything right here let alone pms. but that’s me.

  82. Captain Morgan


    Yes, you’re right. Sorry for the over-reaction. Note I didn’t say farther, but faster. When you’re long silver futures, bad things can happen pretty fast on adverse news.

    I was reacting more to Gary’s comment that nothing had happened although he was right about the SPX.

    For some reason, when I pasted your link into my brouser, Internet Explorer shut down and it would not show your chart. This happens a lot, even when I try Mozilla. Anyone else having this problem or know a solution?

  83. Ben

    I think Gary lost his mind for a sec, distracted by his impending surgery.

    He adjusted the trigger to SLV so go to the premium site to get the update.

  84. Jayhawk


    No problem, the market these days has everyone on edge. It was the silver chart from this year and the massive plunges we just lived through in the Spring and the most recent episode.

    I see a inverse H&S thing brewing on the HUI that says 600

  85. Razvan

    ‘For some reason, when I pasted your link into my brouser, Internet Explorer shut down and it would not show your chart. This happens a lot, even when I try Mozilla.’

    try google chrome browser, if even that doesnt work then you should check the computer. Maybe it is time for an apple!

  86. Poly

    I would be a little careful with Gold/silver still, my data shows we still need to punch out a major ICL in the near future. Of course it’s analysis, so a solid core should bail out any mistake.


    The IC cycle counts on gold a pretty clear, no real room for interpretations. So based on that, marking that plunge last week an ICL would make it a 13 week IC, which would make it one of the shortest of this bull market.

    Primarily based on the timing and my belief that major $500 moves and subsequent collapses don’t recover so soon, I see no reason why we wouldn’t expect this clearly printed 9 day old daily cycle to be part of the last daily and IT cycle. Also to mark that week 13 collapse as the low does not sit well with me. ICL are normally a process, they take time to form and often retest. That collapse primarily happened in the thin overseas after hours markets and we spend so little time below the $1,600 level.

    I will say though in defense of an ICL printed last week, many of the technical indicators were at levels you find at an ICL. That gives me reason to pause and validates holding my core gold positions.

  87. Michael


    Just want to contribute to say thanks for your timely posts on your SMA strategy… it is really helpful and much appreciated..

    Best wishes…

  88. William Wallace


    Take a look at the beautiful W2 swoop on the SPX daily…occuring off a V bottom as I explained last night before you fell asleep at your computer and forgot what the hell I was talking about….LOL

  89. 86d4life

    Your Swoopingness,
    please give me a time for the bottom of the `swoop`. I may be labeling the formation differently, but will Gladly update my TA Bible with your guidance πŸ™‚

  90. riley

    WW do you see falling fruit tree again. Got out gold futures again, await better entry. Thanks for your updates. Still long auy,gg. Love these 2.

  91. rose

    Dear William Wallace,

    re gold 10sma

    Where and how do you follow that?

    With sincerest thanks in advance and with kindest regards,


  92. MrMiyagi

    Crazy nutjob of a last hour.
    Went in and out of TNA & TZA all week with good results. Today was the lowest profit day but I am tired and my back hurts and I need a damn haircut.
    Have a good weekend all.

  93. rose

    Dear William,

    Are you referring to futures (which month) or spot or …? and whose charts?

    I have an awful lot to learn. πŸ™‚

    With very kindest regards,


  94. 86d4life

    I imagine in your wild and wooly days, you were in the wrong place at the right time πŸ™‚

    Serious though;I don`t have the GC to go by so am I basically looking for the same thing on GLD? I mean, it still aplies, correct? I can`t compare the two, is what I`m saying.

  95. rose

    Dear William,

    Downloaded and installed your ThinkorSwim. I have just logged on and may I say that thanks to you I now have another ton of very serious homework to do over the weekend! Seriously, I would like to reciprocate, but my knowledge and skills being what they are, all I can think of is giving you my recipe for home-made chocolate ice cream that I have been asked for at least a million times and I am not too terribly old. πŸ™‚ Seriously. πŸ™‚

    With sincerest thanks again, WW, and with very kindest regards,


  96. Danno

    Today put a dent in silver’s MACD indicator IMO. I would not be surprised to see the MACD rise up over the signal line still, but a bit of momentum was lost and we might not see the ‘pop’ some were hoping for. Assuming silver does not experience a smack down next week I would expect a fairly tame advance for 3-5 days, followed by… ??? Too early to tell. One additional complication is that silver’s stochastic is rapidly entering overbought.

  97. SF Giants Fan


    Your lucky you make money on ZSL. I’ve traded that pig 3 time and lost on the first two. Finally made it all back plus some on the third try. Just wished I didnt get greedy and sold at 20.

    Good luck on the AGQ.

  98. 86d4life

    Hey Rose,
    Somewhere buried I have the recipe for what are supposed to be the Genuine Neiman Marcus chocolate chip cookies. I see a whole new branch of SMT forming!!!!

  99. David


    You can see the “swoopy” 10sma on a daily chart of SPX on stockcharts. Compare it to the same sma of NDX.

    Hope that helps!


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