Interview with the Tekoa Da Silva of the contrary investors cafe
Thanks Gary 🙂
Pardon my ignorance, but could you explain the significance of the charts you post? I don’t know how to interpret what it is they are predicting. Do the larger colored dots relay important turning points? Does the AAPL chart indicate it has made a top, or that it has cleared a level and is now going higher? Since it is regarded as the canary in the coal mine, I’d appreciate a little help in deciphering the movement. Thanks very much, and sorry I’m a noob who doesn’t know these things.
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As expressed in my late February views (“begin buying the 200dma”) in my B-wave bottom buying expectations post, I stress it again, it would be prudent to start building a gold position at these levels. As I expected, we have seen over the last few sessions buyers stepping in and “buying the 200dma”. Although, as mentioned on Wednesday, that I believed we have a short daily cycle here and early daily cycle low printed on Tuesday, we still have a failed DC here and “I doubt this will be one of those times that the 200dma halts the decline, gold will most likely revisit the 300dma”, and we will have a final B-wave bottom and ICL ahead of us, giving us further opportunity to add to our position before the next C-wave begins. Accumulative patience.
I hope you’re right, WW. The 300dma would be a great buying op.
WW, Are you saying that we might not have a 300 dma drop to buy at, so it would be best to start buying now if that opportunity is missed at the 300 dma?
Nice interview Gary!
VelocityShares have some interesting new ETNs. Could be useful when the volume gets going:
UWTI VelocityShares 3x Long Crude ETN DWTI VelocityShares 3x Inverse Crude ETNUGAZ VelocityShares 3x Long Natural Gas ETNDGAZ VelocityShares 3x Inverse Natural Gas ETN
Well said and done Gary
My thoughts on gold:
I think the low on Fri will hold (although only a part of my position has a stop near there…the rest is lower near last Tues’ low).
I think we rally for 1-2 months from here – breaking above 1800 in the process.
Despite the cycle guys seeing a ‘left-trans broken daily – likely leading to an intermediate low’ I believe you will have to ultimately deal with gold moving up higher here to a new right-translated cycle high.
At that point you will be forced to break your rules and either admit the selloff was manipulation or somehow call what we just had a proper, but unusual LT cycle low that still went on to continue the intermediate rally higher. Doesn’t matter to me – it is your system, but I think you are going to have to break something and come up with an excuse soon.
(You know, of course, my assertion that the drop last 2 weeks was a ‘hit’.)
Also, when we break over 1800 in the next move up you will have to explain away (or make a system correction) as to why this isn’t a new C. This conflict, again, is based on december making a lower-low which I likewise assert was a manipulated ‘hit’. I say B is over and we are in a new C. Breaking over 1800 will cause issues from your side and you will need to adjust.
Remember that I continue to assert that all the money printing worldwide is beginning to get ‘traction’. Essentially the very leading edges of VERY strong inflation (if not hyperinflation) coming. I am not entirely sure you will get your S&P drop of the size or duration your expect. Historically, as inflations start to take hold there comes a point where the flood of cash levitates most assets and things SIMPLY RISE on a fiat currency collapse irrespective of other fundamentals. I think we might be there (we WILL be there at *SOME* point…so the thought is important).
And, finally, I need to handle the ‘what if I’m wrong’ scenario so I don’t get carried out.
I’m not going to let the market fake me out and THINK we might be going lower. It is going to have to FORCE me out by proving it if so.
If I’m wrong I lose some of my position if friday’s low breaks, and the remainder if/when Tues’ low breaks.
I dont’ expect either as I have said, but I would lose less than 1% in such a case (meanwhile holding approx 5.5x long in exchange for that risk in what I consider to be a very good bet.)
Let the games continue.
A SINGLE day drop (christmas hit) during the lowest volume of the year in gold is the only thing preventing the cycle people from calling this a C and not an A. We will see how that works out.
I’m contrarily encouraged by the number of people who are out and steadfastly looking lower.
This will be a very good rally higher if they are proven wrong seeing how locked into that view most seem to be.
Actually there have been left translated and failed daily cycles followed by right translated cycle that moved to new highs, though the majority of left translated failed daily cycles are the beginning of intermediate cycle declines.
A move above $1800 doesn’t confirm that a new C-wave has begun, only that an A-wave is still in effect…. A-waves typically test the highs, a move above the $1923 high would confirm that the A-wave is no longer in effect.
It wasn’t a “single day drop” that caused gold to make a new low, and confirm that a D-wave was in effect. Gold reversed on 12/21 and continued lower for the following 5 days to a new and final low. If the 12/21 reversal was followed by a “single day drop” to a new low it would have been a different story, more in line with your thinking, but that wasn’t the case.
Your just ignoring the following 4 days or so that follow these big one day drops, your doing it again with the 2/29 one day “hit”.
Sorry, a two day drop instead of one. 12/28 and 12/29.
Correct me if wrong, but if it had not broken the 12/15 low and continued higher (as it did regardless) than this would be now labeled a C wave?
Gold didn’t drop for 2 days either, gold completely reversed hard on 12/21, look at the reversal candle it printed, and continued lower the following 5 days, 12/28 and 12/29 only being the last two days of the decline.
We can say “what if it didn’t” for every ABCD wave.
I know exactly where your coming from though, and if gold moves above the 1923 high then we will know for sure if we are in a C-wave or still in an A-wave…. but there is no sense in assuming we are in a C-wave now, unless your just seeking some sort of recognition. Even if we are in a C-wave there will still be Intermediate and Daily cycle lows to get a good bottom entry with little draw down. Your assuming gold is entering the bubble phase right here, right now, and will never correct again and leave everyone chasing, if thats the case then let price prove itself and im sure everyone will jump on board.
Pertaining to your current ABCD wave outlook, why are you not applying your same logic to 9/23 and 9/26 as being “hits” that “had they not been so” would put us in whatever wave?
If so, you would be questioning your position on the september correction to the $1523 low being a D-wave.
TZ, my humble opinion is very similar to yours, but with a slight difference:the low of last Friday will not be the lowest low. This week and next week we can find some sudden movements, gold can find support near the low of the last Friday and then rise to the ranks of 1740 – 1748 this is starting at the end of this week and continued next week . For the week of 24 to 30 March this will be the week where we will find the lowest low and my tarjet is 50 WMVA, Then price tag the 50 WMVA , and my “C” wave start from here.
Hi folks. Nice interview Gary.
I’m still scratching my head w/SLV up and SLW down on Friday. But, I just noticed neg divergence on the 60 min chart of UUP, and the corresponding pos div on the FXE chart (in both RSI and MACD). Therefore, if the UUP and GLD are in fact negatively correlated (which isn’t always true), then I’ll just say that I wouldn’t be surprised if GLD and SLV plow higher this week.
Even if this was a C-wave it would still have many months of consolidation before any sustained breakout and trending move could develop. The last C-wave began in April of 09, but it didn’t breakout to new highs until Oct.
The liquidity you speak of isn’t going to land back in the precious metals market this soon after that parabolic top. As we can see its finding other sectors to land on, principally energy and the stock market.
We need to see everyone give up in disgust before the next sustained move can begin. We obviously aren’t even vaguely close to that kind of level of pessimism yet. It takes time to generate those kind of sentiment extremes. We certainly haven’t done it 6 short months.
The public opinion poll never even made it back down to 50% yet. What kind of bottom is that when more than half of investors are bullish?
TZ, No one really cares if you are right or wrong. You can tell us “see I told you so” till you’re blue in the face but that still doesn’t change the odds.
With the stock market 23 weeks into an intermediate cycle the correct path is to wait for the correction and then buy as close to the bottom as possible.
I think you read my post a bit wrong.I understand the angle you are taking and agree with it (from a cycles view).
Plus it’s not like we’re sitting on the sidelines. We have a position in the dollar very close to an intermediate bottom. We’re making money with virtually zero risk. Heck the dollar rallied more than gold on Friday.
fyi a good explanation of Cycles by Alabama’s Tim Wood:
Thanks for sharing the post Bill, Just glad we have Gary to guide us through. Listening to Tim, I know what he was saying sounded good, but darn if I could figure out everything he was saying. 🙂
I agree w/Gary on sentiment, and that the $USD does look like it’s going up. But what I’m wondering is, despite this, will $GOLD also climb now, perhaps because the effects of QE1 and 2 are only now being felt, plus the fact that gold is getting scarcer to find, so price goes up as supply diminishes. I have no idea, so I’m just going to prepare for a rise in gold’s price just in case it does. Trying to be agnostic.
At ease, Re:your last question to me above
From my late Feb post:
“keep an eye on the 200, 275, 300dma’s for a B-wave bottom, start buying the 200 and if gold makes it back to the 300dma, load the boat….B-waves typically retrace to the MA which the D-wave Bottomed, if not halted by the 200dma beforehand.
02′ B-wave – Bottomed $1 short of the 200dma/on the lower bollinger band.
03′ B-wave – Bottomed on the 200dma.
04′ B-wave – Bottomed on the 300dma on a closing basis/on the lower bollinger band.
05′ B-wave – Bottomed on the 300dma on a closing basis.
06′ B-wave – Bottomed on the 275dma on a closing basis/just shy of the 300dma.”
So anyone who took my above advice is already long from my $1685 200dma entry (I posted that entry late night, I know Sophia followed) and will add to that initial position if and until gold puts in a final B-wave or IC low, which as I mentioned will most likely be a test of the 300dma at most.
From my late Feb post above it is clear that I was anticipating a bounce or DCL at the 200dma, whether or not Tuesday 3/6 was a final low is to be seen, but you wont see me giving back the profits from the $1685 entry (as TZ decides to do, glad to see he has atleast a break even stop in place) if it is NOT a final low, reason I took off the position at $1700 (which I also posted). Nor will I miss profitting from the short side if Gold does reverse off the 150dma and moves to a new low, reason I put on the short position Friday at the 150dma ($1715) with the $1721 stop.
WW, So you expect to head down to 200/275/300. Please let me know when you decide to lower the stop as we go. Thanks! 🙂
it is considered bad practice to do victory laps on trading floors. seasoned traders know that if you don’t remain humble, the market will make sure to do it for you at some point in the future.
not directed at anyone, just something to consider
Well said mike.
All I did (so far) was make back the losses of two weeks ago (which were rather large, though only a bit below where I started ultimately) and now position myself leveraged from this point going forward.
It wasn’t easy and I’m simply proud of pulling it off, but I’m not really running victory laps here.
I took a slow sunday evening earlier to post a detailed view of what I expect going ahead and how I think that will resolve as per cycles which most here trade. I would think my comments were useful to at least some. They can clearly be wrong as always and I’ve had my share of losers too – who hasn’t. But posting alternate scenarios provides useful food for thought, no? Didn’t my post cause some people to think through some alternate ways this can turn out?
It’s just how I’m positioned and what I’m expecting.
tzwasn’t directed at you in particular. there tends to be alot of chest thumping especially among younger or newer traders and its typically not a good idea. success can be fleeting so just enjoy your winnings when they come
humility is not thinking less of yourself, it’s thinking of yourself less.
WW,if you went long when gold hit the 200 MA at 1685 ,why did you decide to go short when it hit the 150 MA on Friday ,especially since gold which was down bounced back and had a up day
Not sure if you do, but if you have followed my comments for some time here you would have seen me many times go long one MA for a significant bounce only to take profits in a few days or so, and then short resistance at another MA to profit on the pullback. I could take off the short right now and it would be a profitable trade, because as you can see gold backed off the 150dma as I expected, even if short term.
Any target with your gold short of the 150 MA?
Felipe you know me, I trade in real time, gold may stop me out at 1721 tonight, or I may be taking the short off tomorrow at lower levels. Although I have expectations for bottoms I trade what the market throws at me, and if its according to my expectations then all the better.
WWwhat charting service do you use-
There are additional data points that back your theory. Momentum indicators are showing what looks like a bottom for gold and silver. While not a guarantee, I agree it is worth a hedged bet. Directional indicators are still showing a trading market, so this is probably not a buy and hold trade.I understand cycles are definitely negative (including Gary’s point about the time frame being too short a correction). BTW, even the Aden sisters are saying gold is probably in a “B” wave. However, unless you believe that gold is moving back to its 300dma as WW says, most moving averages look positive to me.
It is decent strategy to play this move, hedge it with stops, and if correct take your winnings off the table at some point.
It will be an interesting week
“most moving averages look positive to me.”
The 10dma crossed over the 20dma, not positive, it more often then not indicates the trend has reversed.
William Wallace: you are a baller. ; )
Straight ballin with you cat 🙂
EMINI 240 MIN
Do you ever state an opinion and back it up?
I see what you mean……as your chatter is so very informative!!! LOL
Asia considers options for stimulus (aka printing)
You are correct. Thanks for the “heads up” on the MA. I don’t think this is a trend change yet ( trend is down), just a trade.
I will be careful here.
Good morning all!W2,
I took off my long ( 1691 for me, your entry was better because you don’t sleep AND you are better trader than me) at 1708 and late Friday, I took a short on June contract at 1715 …Would love to buy back at 1603, but I am sure that some of your MAs will make us rebound before that! Thanks for your alerts though, very nice of you to help us trigger entry and exit with more confidence.Take care,Sophia
You still had a profitable long there, thats all that matters. The only reason I had a better entry was because you didn’t put on your long at the 200dma, not because im a better trader than you, your a wonderful trader. And the 150dma short is profitable here also if you decide to take it off now.
LOL Sophia, you are getting up and we should all be in bed back here. Are you getting the beautiful spring weather early like we are on East Coast in US?
New DC high in the Dollar.
Yeah, saw that WW, are we still hanging on to the short right now? Looks good! Thanks for your help getting in, just let me know when we need to move stopsor getting out! Much appreciated 🙂
I will post if and when I decide to take the short off, if not stopped out. No need to thank me just yet 🙂
If your not willing to risk giving back the profits on this short, take it off now…. if gold is to reverse and head higher it will most likely be off the 50dma $1702.
WW, I might do that, as I don’t want to give back profits, trying to make up what “I” lost. 🙂
WW, I am out, can go to sleep now, made a few bucks, thank you 🙂Appreciate if you keep us updated on next good entry you see coming.
Gold just bounced off the 50dma as expected, lets see if it holds.
I agree that pigs get slaughtered…The only reason that I didn’t buy it at the MA is that I am still a gut-feeling trader. I need to see the price action to react. And I was sleeping when it touched the MA. When I woke up, Gold could’t hide anymore its will to get up so I bought.
Gorgeous weather, mid-60s, daffodils out, trees blossoming, this is England as I like it!
Sophia… We are having the same here, daffodils are blooming and other bulbs are beginning to pop up! Love it! I hope we have a great summer, looking forward to us getting together. 🙂
Sophia, I can’t watching the dollar and gold, it’s got my attention. LOL
Definitely meeting up in June!Go to bed now….LOL
1.3080-90 on Eur/ usd is quite key…. If it breaks, we are heading for further damage
Gary/Cycles-guru’s, I was looking at the longer term 5 yr daily chart of $GOLD, and I was noticing that the 2008 correction went down 3 times. Currently $GOLD has gone down twice. So if we do down a 3rd time as in 2008, that to me would look like the finishing of the D wave, as we’d make a lower low when we finish (i.e. below 1523.90). So my question is, is there any hope at all in *cycle theory* for a D wave in gold to still be in progress? Given how the $USD advance looks, I would not be surprised. Thanks.
2008 was the 8 yr cycle low for gold.
I see VIX @ 15.27 this morning which reflects complete investor complacency about any bear market beginning. Question is when is this gonna turn?
Also, what site do you guys have for following the live price of the DXY index?
“Easiest Credit Worldwide Shows No Signs of Abating…”
“…The bid to guarantee growth suggests officials at the four key central banks won’t hurry to pull down the $9 trillion wall of money on their combined balance sheets or boost interest rates stuck near record lows. They also stand ready to add more stimulus if the recent rebound proves another false dawn….”
Bloomberg lead story.
TZI guess balance budgets are a thing of the past. Wasn’t that a big topic during one presidential campaign? Be interesting to see the talking treads squirm when questioned about that during the debates. Doesn’t really matter anyway, campain talk is all lies….
Rates will never be raised again for most major regions of the world. To do so would collapse the system (particularly Japan and US, but others are rapidly following suit).
We are in the final phase of a systemic blowout (which could still last for many years, don’t get me wrong, but rates aren’t going up again and the fed will not withdraw any money – it can’t. They system is now terminal.)
But for central bank printing and various manipulations the system would already have collapsed. They know this. They are simply delaying the end in order to steal as much money as possible and in order to line up all the duck so they can properly reset things and continue running the show from the other side.
Need coffee. Too many spelling mistakes🙁
So people understand, please realize there are TWO sets of “rates” in the world:
1) rates of free floating debts, like Greek debt and such, that can and ARE going higher because they holders of those debts want out and realize they are going to get screwed.
2) rates of money creation and lending by central banks which are zero in USA and Japan and likely to begin dropping in other places like China as they follow the same path to collapse. THESE rates will stay at or near zero until the final scene of this game.
TZ: if they reset the world and the currency system what will happen to people with gold silver and other tangible assets… I’m sure they don’t want them to be that well off.
Ahh…well, then. NOW we enter the continuing discussion of whether there is a special property to gold and silver and whether there is a higher plan in place than just a simple bull mkt of an asset.
Seems to me people have a decision to make in that matter before evaluating the rest of your question (which DOES have an answer clearly born out by history).
Far be it for me to suggest that about 200yrs of history, a dozen presidents, handfuls of central bankers, numerous legendary business figures and voluminous writings have any sway in the matter.
I will offer up a source for thought:
The Money Mastershttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HfpO-WBz_mw
I don’t necessarily agree with the solution the movie suggests, but the EXTENSIVE and long fact trail is correct.
If you dont understand or believe after watching then there isn’t much more I can do.
If you think anything in the movie is wrong, go research it yourself. You will only end up confirming things more.
And If you aren’t even willing to invest 3hrs into something for free where all you have to do is sit and stare and listen, then you (a general ‘you’) simply confirm the view of human masses as pathetic, useless animals to be ridden and disposed of at whim.
TZ: thanks for the reply i will definitely look into the video…. Ive been thinking about the reset. IMO we need to cash out before the reset and buy cash generating assets. Eg., land, houses, etc. thats my plan… always wanted to be a landowner and rent out. Farm land will also be of benefit IMO.
I guarantee you rates are going up. Rates will not be raised by the central banks, they will be raised by the world’s credit markets. Anyone putting their money out there for 30 years for 2% for 10 years and 3.2% for 30 years in USTs is insane.
When we get the first hints that inflation is moving higher the credit markets will start pushing up rates. Oil prices are only the beginning. Pump prices are only the beginning.
Benny can’t hold rates down forever. Not possible. He has no control over anything but Fed Funds unless he wants to buy the crap out of the long end of the curve. Not going to happen. The market will raise rates in the US just as it has done in Europe.
At 8:58am I clearly distinguished between two different ‘rates’.
Your comments exactly confirm what I already said.(Yes, EXISTING “free floating” outstanding debt of the USA is in the #1 first category like Greece, Japan, and everybody else. The second category is the central bank loan and money creation rate which clearly is not the rate for an existing bond in the market.)
>When we get the first hints that inflation
Inflation is already HUGE, but through clever games they have managed to keep most of the free sloshing cash STILL investing in worthless debts and overpriced assets. It really is a kudos to their skill (and the ineptitude/complacency/math-challenged-ness of ‘the little people’). The force is strong within this group 🙂
WW,Feels like a GDX/SLW entry here short term or are my senses way off.
Gold looks to want to close below the 50dma, lets see if it wants to stay below it for a while.
Your senses are never way off, I have never seen you way off on a call ever.
Didn’t feel right… didn’t touch it after all, thanks WW.
MrMiyagi, how long are you making your living from the stock market, may I ask?
Strictly off the market for 1.5 years but have been trading for over 10 years now. I am open to any interesting job offers though just for the heck of it but haven’t seen anything yet, can’t say I ave looked hard recently…
Like if WW pays me enough to renovate his house with full room and board and tickets to Mamma Mia on Broadway… That kind of offer never comes!
Wow, something to consider! You would have to trade though to buy the broadway tickets, I’ll provide the laptop and internet connection 🙂
Don’t forget you have to feed me and the wife too!
Me and you will have to trade to feed ourselves…LOL!
Follow MrMiyagi and the money shall come :o)
WW, you still short gold? Not much movement today, any expectations that you see lining up other than what you posted previously correction down to 200/275/300dma?
Still…moved my stop to break even.
Thanks WW, will see what’s happening tonight. Seems like everything is suspended in air for now.
“Feels like a GDX/SLW entry here short term or are my senses way off.”
If we get a dip below $52 tomorrow on GDX, I think it’s a good entry point. Below $51 would be a gift.
The last time GDX was below $51, gold was $150 lower. That said, the miners could be leading gold lower….. in which case even $50 is probably not the bottom.
NEM is being sold on bounces…really hard…..
Have been reading WW posts and you are extremely good with the MA’s. The wave pattern (not cycle waves, but EW) could be that GLD ended wave 1 up at 174….the first crash was A down of ABC down in a wave 2 down…..So it may test (GLD) btw 157 and 153….appreciate all your post. I am short Gold, Silver and long UVXY……Appreciate GS posts and portfolio mgmnt….
HUI:GLD ratio at extremes. But Miners are being shorted as hedge of the Gold metal buyers….
“shorted” should mean sold….
Hui gold ratio looks to be headed back to 2008 lows around .20-.22. We are at .32 now.
Either the bond market or the dollar or both are about to make epic moves. Daily and weekly bollinger bands are tightening up…
For anyone trades individual gold mining stocks and find the daily trend here:
Also it is useful to project the GDX movement for a basket of trends.
Moving the stop on the $1715 150dma gold futures short down to the 50dma.
Is that around 1700/1699?
Morning WW, hope you are doing better and getting some sleep.
Will it be 200/275/300? Hmmmm 🙂
bullion banks accumulating shorts and hitting all the buyers of the 200 sma…..
hi, what time is the release of the FOMC minutes, thanks
meeting approx. 12:30 PM 2:15 PM announcement (rates unchanged)
appreciate your response
Took off the $1715 150dma short at $1686
As I mentioned a couple days ago, a gold close below the 50dma will most likely initiate the next leg down and a move back below the 200dma, which will run stops below the 200 and flush to a new low. Lets see if gold can hold above the 200dma.
What are you showing for 200 dma?
Thanks, was in range, just wanted to make sure. 🙂
wwwill you go long right above the 200 dma with a tight stop right below it, or are you just going to stick to playing the short side
I expect that if gold tests the 200dma now it will breach it and move to a new low. I wont go long again until I feel gold has bottomed again, reason I went long off the 200dma the first time, I believed that 3/6 was a DCL. If gold has already put in an extreme left translated DC top and rolled over 4 days into a new DC, I certainly dont want to be long.
Looks like we’re headed back down. Let’s us know if you get back in. Thanks! 🙂
Cant do that, by the time im back in and post gold will have likely moved past the point of entry. I only post certain setups, as I did with the 150dma short.
WW, Gold is holding the line so far today.
What time frame do you use on your charts in regards to MA’s—
If other than daily I usually specify.
The PMs showing remarkable strength. Both are now green in the NY spot market. Amazing.
WW, Did you go long yet, buy any gold to start your accumulating, or waiting to see if we go lower?
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