130 thoughts on “POSSIBLE PORTFOLIO CHANGE

  1. Adam

    I dunno, man. I would have a hard time putting money to work in precious metals (GDX) when it’s not even outperforming the SPX on an hourly chart.

  2. Adam

    The GDX can’t rise on a weak dollar and a triple digit rise in the Dow; I think it’s time to bail on that trade in favor of the broader market.

    1. Gary

      With the BPGDM just now turning up there’s no way I would bail on what will eventually be a very profitable trade just because it doesn’t do what I want when I want. The odds of making 10% in the S&P in the next year are slim. The odds of making 10-20% in miners over the next couple of months are great.

    2. Adam

      When something doesn’t do what it’s supposed to when it’s supposed to, that gives you every reason to sell. I’m curious to see how energy or small caps would do if miners were up 10-20% over the next couple of months.

    3. Adam

      I’m just looking at it now, if GDX went up 20% it would hit about $55.50 which would still be below its downward-sloping 200 DMA @ $56.

  3. Quy

    Adam – You’re right. Once SPX breaks above 1387 (currently in a triangle too), it’ll head up to old high, but that’s when I’ll scale back cause I think it’ll head down to test the 1370 level again before going back up to new high in May.

  4. aklaunch

    This is looking like a temporary bottom in mining stocks to me too. Pure apathy is obvious. I just don’t see an explosion happening here without a minor currency crisis. On the other hand i don’t see extreme down side risk with my eyes because of the major puke outs that are behind us. I think the cards are stacked for making a bit of money. Hold the line and be patient. Chasing other rising sectors may give instant gratification in the account but a 15% gain may be in works while having to do nothing but hold?

  5. Quy

    SPX can’t seem to break above 1387, I just moved to 100% cash. Today is best day for it to break above it, but can’t seem to get that push, which tells me it may head down soon.

  6. Quy

    Even with the dollar down today, stocks & metals can’t muster any rally, which tells me the resolution of these triangles will be to the downside starting next week. I’m putting on some shorts now.

    1. Adam

      If we hit new lows, the previous cycle could be considered unfinished at its early 24 day duration. One could assume those lows are retested (maybe broken somewhat) while creating some kind of trend divergence in oscillators before it’s launched higher in the last days of April/early May giving us a normal duration cycle. I don’t think it’s a good time to short.

  7. Gary

    My original expectation was for a marginal new low accompanied by a divergence in the NYMO. Today would be the 32nd day of the daily cycle. So if next week were to break to new lows we would be in the timing band for a bottom and the bears that sell into the breakdown would be setup to get taken to the cleaners.

    This late in the game one is probably better off buying the breakdown than expecting much more downside.

    1. Adam

      This cycle probably isn’t over until the dollar index launches higher again. Since it’s breaking lower now, we’re probably in the same cycle. When (if) the dollar cycle breaks the Feb low, we’ll know that we have another LT failed cycle and the market can launch higher in earnest once the dollar cycle tops out again.

    2. Gary

      D,
      Manipulation in the dollar has made it almost impossible to tell where we’re at. It changes daily. One day it looks like we have a cycle bottom and the next day it looks like there could be more downside. The only thing I’m confident of is that Bernanke is going to continue to whack the dollar in the attempt to prevent another summer correction.

      The last two years have been difficult to recover from, so I think this year he’s going to do everything he can to prevent it from happening.

    3. Tiho

      It is not “manipulation” buddy, it is called uncertainty and indecision. The whole market feels like you. Everyone sees pros and cons for being both long and shorts the Dollar. Indecisions are usually long periods of lower highs and higher lows, aka triangles. The market is waiting for “information” and eventually the market collectively, will figure it all out and start pricing in it / discounting it (whatever it is).

  8. EricH

    With gas prices so high and summer (driving) months dead ahead, i can’t see how the FED will announce anything next week. A little deflation in this market until late Summer is exactly what the patient need. GDX could easily far into the high 30s if the overall market take a 10% correction.

    1. Gary

      I think Ben wants to avoid another summer sell off. The last two were very hard to recover from. I think that’s why he’s hitting the dollar so hard.

    2. EricH

      Why would you say that?

      S&P was up close to 38% off of the October 4th lows in 4 months of time. That’s an average of 9% per month. In the final 3 month from November to February, S&P never corrected more than 1% on any given trading day.

    3. EricH

      But every correction have lead to higher prices. Currently it’s 1% from the last major peak in Spring of 2011, but 12% higher from the 2010 peak.

      Higher highs, higher lows. Seems like it’s working.

    4. Gary

      Yes but the correction in 2011 was much larger in both magnitude and duration than the one in 2010. The recovery above the highs has been weaker also. I think Bernanke feels he can’t risk another summer collapse as it would likely be even more damaging than last year and harder to turn back up before elections in November. So his rationale is to collapse the dollar to try and keep markets inflated. This is the same strategy he used in 2008. It didn’t work, the real estate and credit markets continue to implode, while oil went to $147.

    5. EricH

      The last 2 correction in the stock market collapse haven’t slowed the recovery why would a 3rd be? Every correction have keep yields going even lower which certainly have helped the housing market. It has also keep oil & gas prices in checked.

      I might be off here, but a correction might actually be good for the recovery as the fed don’t have to do all the heavy buying on the long yield (10 year).

  9. JEFFtheFLEA

    I miss the crowd we used to have. Even the argumentative ones that Gary answered, I learned many things from. Now there is not much teaching, little clarity from cycles. seems like we will just get a 20 day hindsite that gold bottomed and and the rest just take a stab at something

    1. Bill

      That, plus splitting the blog in two a long while back, so that subs can talk specifics about cycles, which used to be here. Both events (splitting the blog, and temporarily shutting it down) were due to rude people with small brains and big mouths.

      I bet that Gary’s sub blog is still good.

    2. Bill

      I also think that as of late, say since the big silver correction started, that cycles have been hard, what w/all the currency printing.

      I myself took a step back here and focus not just on gold/silver now, but also regular stocks like AAPL, CMG, etc., trading via pure TA using daily charts. That’s just me.

      I read that Rogers and Faber both think that gold will continue to correct the rest of the year. We’ve already had a hard time trading PM’s since gold’s correction. We may be in the doldrums another few months, say until Aug/Sep. Could be.

    3. JEFFtheFLEA

      well I will have to say that Rodgers Faber or one other sole ever give me a tradeable opinion. I think gold is going to consolidate also. The trick is to sit tight , pay attention to Gary and be ready for a change.

  10. coolkevs

    DeMark land:
    We are emerging from a 12-day period of weakness on Friday resulting from a TD Sequential 13 in the S&P 500 that recorded on April 4. The Momentum down level is 1365. As we had an up close on Friday in S&P, we could potentially push down below that 1365 level on Monday. Then, if a down open on Tuesday, this would represent a change in trend, with more weakness in store. So, the next couple of days are very important in DeMark terms for the general market.

  11. Gary

    I have to say that in the middle of a currency war about the only thing that’s working is to watch the dollar cycle. DeMark has been completely lost for so long it’s not even worth paying attention to anymore, and QE has stretched the normal cycle durations way past standard timing bands. Even sentiment has become meaningless in this environment.

    Just watch the dollar. If it starts making lower lows and lower highs then the odds are high that the intermediate trend has reversed. If that’s the case it’s probably going to be tough for anything to gain much downside momentum.

  12. Veronica

    Interesting to see all the different viewpoints and theories on why gold is doing what it’s doing. We had a hige rise that almost doubled gold’s price and it’s doing what it has always done after a big rise- consolidating the gains, usually defined by it’s weekly bollinger bands-and nothing else.

  13. john

    Assuming (as I do), that the people who run things want Obama to be reelected , they will continue to destroy the dollar as Gary has suggested. A consequence of this printing, though, is inflation – – most visibly, high gasoline prices. These high gas prices may constrain the FED in this election year …especially if the ongoing efforts to blame evil speculators and evil Persians fail.

    It cracked my up this past week when one of the major networks did an investigative report on why gas prices were so high. One of the sources that they went to to back up their finding of culpability on the part of speculators was …the St Louis FED. Ha.

  14. ...at ease

    Punester, My response to your question from the SUB blog.

    First: Maybe many newer SUBs are not aware of it, but Gary’s SUB site was set up to specifically answer SUB questions pertaining to the trades and postings so that they wouldn’t be discussed on the public blog (paid service). The SUB site was not set up for various discussions, opinions, contrarian views and musings that have been on there the last few months. That is what the public blog site here is for.
    The SUB site is for Gary’s specific trades and postings to answer questions for his SUBs.

    Second: If someone hasn’t taken Gary’s trades, I know I won’t be able to convince you, if Gary hasn’t from his SUB posts. Those of us who follow Gary, want to hear Gary’s opinion and reasons and have our questions answered on the SUB blog and is what we paid for. If there is a lot of chatter and noise that is disagreeing or challenging Gary’s trades, it will leave many new SUBS in the headlights not being able to pull the trigger at the appropriate times as they will be confused by various discussions not focused on Gary’s trade. You either believe in the trade and take it, or you are left on the side wondering why you didn’t from all the chatter and noise that will keep you wondering from so many different opinions. One needs confidence in the trade to take it, the SUB site is for that purpose.

    Third: Please explain to me why as a paying SUB, I have to wade through pages of TMI, musings and discussion, contrarian views and posts to find Gary’s responses to what is already in the report posts or can be found in the Sub links. I have seen Gary miss questions because he gets tried of answering and takes a break. But that one question could make or break a new SUB here on their trust on a trade or in Gary. Gary has the patience of a Saint to repeatedly answer the same questions over and over that are in the current trade postings or links on the SUB site. Gary also likes to discuss the markets or varying opinions on the public blog site, Check it out and see, he posts both places. If I want varying views or other trade ideas… this is where I come and where everyone else should be coming as was the procedure in the past. Ask yourself, why one can’t post here where it is appropriate and chooses instead to post everything they have to say or ask on the SUB blog? The public SMT blog site welcomes all varying views and discussions and Gary does respond to questions on both sites.

    Fourth, I know as a SUB I would appreciate consideration to be able concentrate on the direction from Gary with no unnecessary confusion and noise from the outside. Even Gary tells us repeatedly, he does not read a lot outside of his cycles as it distracts from his trading. I really don’t want Gary distracted from taking us to higher gains and in the same way SUBs need to concentrate on the trades as presented. TMI and discussion is confusing at times and unnecessary. Many get drawn into the discussions unconsciously and it results in them not taking a trade out of fear of the unknown or confusion.

    Finally, Please respect Gary’s wishes and other SUBs and use the public blog site for all musings, opinions, “sharings” and discussions where they belong. That would be considerate of Gary as well as to all his paid SUBS. Gary asked on the Thursdays post to move discussions to the public blog. I see many postings on the sub blog that belong on this public blog. So just reminding you all to respect his wishes and be considerate of all Paying SUBs. We are all paid SUBs of Gary’s for the same reason, to follow him on his SMTP site. We also have available to use this public blog for “sharings”, musings, opinions and discussions. Kindness and consideration are key to harmonious communications and gains.

  15. ckpc

    at ease,
    I have been biting my tongue for weeks now with regard to the premium blog and all the “noise” there.
    Bless you for bringing it out into the open with such grace and diplomacy. You are a real asset to both this blog and to Poly’s. Many many thanks.

  16. Danno

    I joined premium site a while back but don’t post over there. I do read some of the chat.. but only the text in red πŸ˜‰

  17. Gracegift

    at ease,
    I am a relatively new subscriber. Only a few months and I want to thank you for clarifying what each blog’s purpose is.
    I will try to make sure that I follow Gary’s request.
    Thanks

  18. john

    My humble suggestion for this blog is that it should talk about investing and trading. Most posts lately (including this one;) are about the blog itself or about defense of someone’s ego.

  19. muttonfish

    I mentioned elsewhere that I am buying miners here today (after advising strenuously against buying in the last two weeks.) I’m not going crazy — things can certainly go lower — but I am establishing positions. Take a look at the weekly RSI; the last time it was this low was 2008. I feel that people are getting well and truly disgusted with (and afraid of) the miners, and that’s also what I’ve been waiting to see.

    1. Bill

      I’ve had similar thoughts, but remember that UNG just has relentlessly gone down, down, down, too. I’m wondering if GDX will be like that…

      I’ll be a buyer when we have a trend change.

  20. ILUVPMS

    gary even with the bloodbath in the miners… ill be buying lower.. just want to you to know that I’m “hanging in there”

  21. ILUVPMS

    muttonfish… do not look at 2008 as your mark… i can garuntee that the bankers can make 2008 look like a picnic for the miners and can set a new meaning to oversold…. fwiw

  22. James

    What the heck is going on with the metals and the miners? I don’t think I have ever been more confused in my investment career. I bought a boatload of gdx at 47 and I am getting nervous…

  23. James

    I am definitely not getting out of my positions but I don’t think any trade has ever tested my patience like this.

    1. ...at ease

      Hang tight James, just stop looking at the numbers and look at the big picture as Tiho says.
      I’ll have a shot of tequila with you…. and another when we reach our targets. πŸ™‚

  24. Tiho

    Hey James… relax and remove emotions out of this. Just have patience and let the market get oversold. GDX at $47 will look cheap when it goes to $100 in coming years. Stop sweating mate. If nothing else helps, have a shot of vodka…

  25. Tiho

    To help you remov emotions consider the following: GDX RSI on weekly chart is getting quite oversold now, the Bullish % Index (BPGDM) got to as low as 10% recently, there are 0% of stocks above 10 MA 50 MA and 200 MA after today’s sell off, Silvers sentiment and put levels are once again extremely bearish and the distance that GDX is away from 200 MA is now quite extreme.

    Of course things could get worse during panic sell offs, but GDX is down 8 out of the last 9 weeks. No selling panic goes forever, and majority of e retail investors keep talking about how things could go lower non stop. Obviously they could, but do you want to agree with everyone else and ink like them? They are all bearish, so don’t follow wha the herd is thinking.

  26. Tiho

    People have a natural tendency to refer back to shorter term memory of the recent major events. When 2011 bear market in equities started, so many pundits were saying 2012 will be as bad as 2008. Some even said it will be the worst ever year for markets and economy. It’s quite funny really, but now the same thing is being repeated in PMs sector. Apparently Silver will collapse to $20 and Gold Miners will crash like it’s 2008 all over again.

  27. ILUVPMS

    muttonfish…i don’t think the whole market will be like that but i do expect miners to be oversold to that level or more.. we are already there yet going down… so 2008 in that sense is happening in a ratio term (HUI to gold).

  28. sophia

    Still long Coffee and Cac 40 ( blood bath in Cac but I was also short DJ on Friday night so it saved me). What a fun market! Let’shope that the next 2 weeks are going to test those keys levels ( all the MAs) so that we can go back to doing business again!

    1. Bill

      Apologies everyone. Thanks again Su. I hope this is right:

      gld 4.66%
      gdx -12.42%
      gdxj -11.66

      slv 11.25
      sil -2.99%

      spy 9.47%
      qqq 16.77%
      aapl 41.16%

  29. xoriox

    at ease

    Thank you for making clear the different purposes for Gary’s premium and public blogs. I tend to come and go and read both blogs in a very piecemeal way. It was not clear to me until today after reading your post what Gary’s wishes were for his premium blog.

    1. ...at ease

      Your welcome Xioriox. I think things got off track when this public blog site was taken down for awhile and new members coming on were not aware of his blog set ups. At times taking one action, takes on unexpected reactions, so just tried to clarify, what was being asked of us as members of SMTP Subs. Prosperous trading!

  30. Veronica

    My gold futures stop was nearly hit today, and stands at 1613 currently. It should start moving up strongly soon, unless stopped out,of course.It is in position now,as long as it is not stopped out, to generate another add on buy soon.

    1. ...at ease

      Danno, that is quite a chart, more than I am knowledgeable enough to read. I see a lot of posted charts, but unless someone explains what they intend to show, I know i don’t always get the message.
      Again, glad to see you have joined SMTP. πŸ™‚

  31. Elaine

    At Ease and Veronica,

    At a stop of 1613 – about 1.5% down, what would that take GDX to? Do you have any thoughts?

    Thank you

  32. ILUVPMS

    Danno,

    Your chart looks great.. Im getting 360 when i calculated top to bottom of the complex head and shoulders pattern, rounding top. I don’t see how 400 is ultimate target? Can you please explain how you got that.

    cheers

    1. Danno

      411 is only the target for the Megaphone. I did not calculate the target for the Rounding Top yet. Just off the top of my head that target would come in around 375.

  33. Daniel

    They can prevent them if they choose to. However, they will just (sooner or later) cause a larger bubble and subsequent meltdown than if they had not massively intervened in the first place.

  34. EricH

    There’s a reason why in the latest bank stress test, the FED used a 50% market decline as a parameter. ‘IF’ 50% decline are not allowed as Gary have mentioned recently, then why would the fed use that are a parameter?

  35. Daniel

    To continue providing the illusion that everything is allright…. and even if it isn’t we are there to rescue the system if need be! πŸ™‚

  36. Daniel

    If and when a crisis of that magnitude arrived they could buy stocks a billion shares at a time (a billion is an exaggeration but you get the point) in an order to return some normalcy to the panic selling. 2008 Scared them…. terrified them. They would choose to implement monetary policies that could destroy us in the end just to prevent that from happening in the short term and under the illusion they are actually saving the system!

  37. ckpc

    Gary,
    I don’t believe the Fed makes decisions based on AAPL’s earnings either. Rather, positive earnings in the biggest Nasdaq stock, as well as the earnings of many other companies that have beaten the street, give the impression that the economy is doing just fine. Therefore, he can use that positive impression to justify that no new QE3 is required. As you well know, the news can be used to manage perception, and I was just pointing out that this would conveniently provide him with the “back story” to justify a more hawkish stance if that’s the direction he wants to take.

  38. Gary

    The Fed has been doing QE constantly they just haven’t announced it publicly like the first two times. Heck they have been increasing the money supply pretty much nonstop since 2001.

    The last two times they tried to pullback led to severe market corrections in 2010 and 11. I don’t think Ben is going to chance a third one especially in an election year. The money printing will almost certainly continue right up till Twist is scheduled to end in June and then they will find another excuse to keep the presses running although again they won’t call it QE.

    1. Bill

      So if money printing via Twist etc. are still going on, why is gold not going up? Just profit taking?

      Also, for the life of me I have no idea why equities are going up at all either.

      Nothing makes sense to me. The only reality I see are a) massive debt, b) massive unemployment, and c) no more mfg in the US, save for BA, CAT, and a few others. Germany and Japan still have mfg.

    2. Bill

      Also, are cycles still kinda hosed up, or is it becoming clear now? Or was it always clear, and I’m the one who was hosed? πŸ˜‰

    3. Gary

      Isn’t it clear. While gold has been going through a multimonth correction the liquidity has landed in the stock market. The generated a very powerful momentum move, aka buying begets buying.

      Gold had it’s momentum move last fall as the stock market was collapsing. The liquidity just keeps sloshing back and forth into undervalued assets once momentum fails in one area it begins in another.

      I think it’s about time for it to slosh into the mining sector.

    4. ...at ease

      I sure hope you are right on Miners Gary… as well invested in miners and would like to get a piece of this one and double up again on your lead. πŸ™‚

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