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Hi Gary, so you are saying we will get a buying opportunity during late June/early July? Will that be a lower low than Octobers?
it should hold above that level as the intermediate cycle is right translated, but as I consider it to be artificially right translated you never know. A little patience for a month or so should be rewarded with a great buying opportunity.
And as always this is not a shorting opportunity. The Fed could keep this market propped up longer than we expect.
Nice chart work. Keeping us informed. Thanks.
I know, it’s crazy to short these markets for longer than a day or two, but a low risk entry into UVXY could work – if we break to marginal new highs as you suggest.
My 2 cents. I agree on many points, it may be a likely scenario. But I would not rule out that
1) it may break out decisively (more than marginally),
2) the pullback may be too shallow to break the Dec (or even March) low.
My reasons are, 1) it’s slightly bullish fundamentally, 2) specs are net short SPX.
Gary,
SM correctS arnd July then we go touch high again and then in 2016 we go 1500 arnd, is that what u projecting?
Pretty much yes. I have another chart I will post tomorrow showing what I think is likely coming.
So the daily cycle low that you think now happened last Thurs Gary is not a buying opportunity because it simply does not have much higher to go?
That was not a DCL on Thursday.
Technically the S&P didn’t break the trend line so we may be dealiing with another extremely stretched cycle that might make an ICL in June or July.
Gary,
If you draw a line from April 30 than it seems there was line break for DCL.
Only a very short term buy. I would suggest exiting the second the Nasdaq touches 5130 again.
The problem with shorting is “they” could rig the market to correct via time rather than price. IOW, market never does correct except by staying in a range for a while, and then it is off to the races again.
I was cleaning up my folder and saw that Mark Cook, supposedly a great trader, said in 01/2015 that we were already in a bear market. He said something very famous: he was so bearish that he was growing fur. 🙂
Obviously he was a bit early as the Nasdaq has been 300 points higher than the beginning of the year.
What does Gary mean exactly by “interventions” a word used here at least 3 times. What is “Thursday mornings intervention?” I wasn’t aware there was an intervention by the FED on Thursday morning.
I think the Fed occasionally intervenes in the market to keep them propped up now that QE has ended.
qe is credit based oxygen for SPY
We seem close to 5132 already – the way these markets shoot up it could be in that ball park in a day or three.
I think the consolidation is over, and it’s up up and away from here. I would be a buyer and stop waiting for some correction. The market never really corrected from the Fall of 1998 through the Spring of 2000. it went parabolic for a year and a half. Lots of people waited on the sidelines and made no money of it.