Do plan on putting on some iinverse ETF’s once we break 5132?
I do have a strategy in play for a move down into an intermediate cycle low during the weeks ahead but it doesn’t involve inverse ETF’s.
Let me guess….long one of the VIX ETFs, right?
Gary, I think you have all the possibilities covered. Are you still long the S&P?
I took profits yesterday
looks like dollar will move lower, 94 at least, now question is: it would be a correction of move from low – 93 to 96 or it will indicate that new lows are coming ?
in my morning report I cover what I think is going to unfold in the currency markets and positioned the currency portfolios appropriately.
i’ve didnt noticed update, all clear now, thanks
move little higher in dollar (to about 95.80) will complete reverse H&S pattern with target 98 at least
its done – dollar resuming uptrend for good
what is so funny in my message ? i wrote it when dollar was about 95.6 now its 96.14 and its going now straight to 98
Gary, you took profits already? What has changed that prompted you to take such a minuscule profit? The market has not sold off and is just a few points off it’s all time high so what was the big rush to get out so soon after rushing in with a long position? Puzzling.
Sentiment levels are getting extreme again and we’re close enough to 5132 that I don’t need to try to catch every last penny. The VIX is under 12 showing extreme complacency.
Too many people like Ted who are expecting the market to go to the moon.
Actually I am a contrarian Gary. Every one I know either expects a correction, and then the market resumes in a bull trend; or they expect a big top in the making. I think neither. The contrarian view is the market doesn’t take a breather and goes parabolic. Why not? Complacency can last a looong time in a bull market.
I think the bulls waiting for a correction and the bears expecting a top are both wrong. The market is getting read to go parabolic to SPX 2800-3200.
Ted, you are truly contrarian …
If we get the parabolic move to 2800+ that would be the shorting opportunity of a lifetime…although still not for the feint of heart.
Fast rise coming but not to 2800-3200 !
SPX 2,350 is target !!
I think so too, but I think the market needs a hard correction first to set the stage and reload so to speak. So I think we first get a move into a seven year cycle low and then the rocket launch to crazy highs.
Similar to how the sharp and scary correction in 98 set the Nasdaq up for the parabolic phase into 2000.
Big move in the US Dollar on the weekly candle. In Elliot Wave terms, this wave 4 ABC retraced to the wave iv of 3 near 94. It is still possible (but far less likely) for another move down (ABCDE wave 4) to the lower BB of 91.84, and we should have a good idea where things are headed when markets open on Tuesday.
Talking about EW, look at Gary’s NASDAQ chart above. It’s a picture perfect classic EW. Fist wave 1 from 2002 low to 2008 top, then a wave 2 correction and now we have a monster wave 3, We are waiting for a wave 4 correction soon, maybe next week/month!?
It’s so obvious 🙂 the final top and a major correction next year in all global indices imho. I am talking about -40-50% corrections next year. For 2015 wave 4 correction, maybe -15-20%.
Your EW analysis reckons on a 15 – 20 correction followed by a massive rally before a bigger correction?
The only problem I have with that is that the EW guy – elliotwavetrader? – has been saying a massive crash is going to happen – DOW to 3,000 or something like that – since 2009.
That’s a good one!
Oops, my big mistake – elliotwavetrader is Avi Gilburt isnt it? I didn’t mean him – my apologies to Avi Gilburt. I actually enjoy reading and listening to Avi over on Seeking Alpha and Marketwatch. He has made some very good calls. Gary and Avi are the two guys whom I listen to most of all. BIG OOPS!
No, I meant the guy who kept appearing on the financial shows around 2008 / 2009 citing elliot wave and saying that the DOW was going down to 3,000. I forget his name, but he was citing elliot waves as evidence for global financial collapse and, well, the markets have gone on an incredible bull since then.
That’s the problem with all your elliot wave guys and gals – you have websites that sound too alike! 🙂
Sorry Avi – my apologies to you again.
You are probably referring to Robert Prechter of EWI – he has been predicting Dow 1000 !
Other person who has been predicting Dow 5000 is Harry Dent but he does not use EW !!
That is the guy – Robert Prechter. He has a similiar sounding website as Avi – elliot wave international I think it is.
Isn’t the problem that the big guys have now is that the retail investor is basically maxed out – there simply is not enough people out there with free cash who can even consider entering the markets even if they wished to?
Isn’t the Chinese parabolic being driven by highly leveraged retail investors – much in the same way that the 1929 bubble was? I wonder if there is a Chinese equivalent of Groucho Marx out there?
‘Marxist Grou Chu’ 🙂
I haven’t seen any signs at all that the public is massively into the stock market. Nothing like conditions at the top in 2000 when everyone was buying tech stocks or in 2006 when everyone was buying houses. I would say we still have a long way to go before the public finally gets suckered into a third bubble.
Interesting analysis of the gold and silver COTS here:
Looks like the big banks have gone mssively short gold and silver.
Whether a failed breakout or a breakout that failed to be, Tuesday morning, it looks like the EW Diagonal Triangle has broken. Look out below, at 1820 SPX.
Yesterday gave me hope that I could soon BTFD a bit lower on QQQ. Well, my hope got dashed today. I guess CBs can’t allow correction of more than 1% these days. Dippers won again. Waiting for QQQ to 107 harder than getting to the moon.
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