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Nice comparison Gary. Timely reminder.
This is what a drop into as daily cycle low needs to do. It forces traders to become bearish and that builds the fuel for the next step higher. Judging by the level of bearishness right now this cycle low is building a lot of fuel and the next leg up should be rather aggressive as it’s likely to catch alot of shorts on the wrong side of the market.
I’ll say it again. 31 days into a daily cycle is not the time to be selling short. It’s the time to be looking for a lpong entry.
The most recent sentiment report had gold at only 19% bulls. That is extreme. It’s the kind of extreme that could drive a big move higher.
Gary,
Big move in gold to 1200 or more? Big is to what level?
Gary, I think you meant to say 40-50% higher before IC tops!
correct
I would wait for gold to finish above the 50dma before considering a bullish trade.
A move above the 50 DMA doesn’t gurantee a sustained rally. look what happened to everyone who bought the recent breakout above the 50 a couple of weeks ago.
It’s best to try to buy at the bottom of the daily cycle. We should be very close to that now. Gold is on day 30.
30,000 calls for $15 GDX with Sep 18 expiration sold yesterday: ~20k @ 25 cents, then ~10k more @ 20-21 cents…
The HUI has support around 38 ish. It may test 200 before getting there but it is heading below 40.
You’ha got a support under zero level
The monkey on gold’s back is the rate hike. I believe the Fed will raise in Sept just to save face. However, it will be so small that investors will realize that it will have no effect on gold and it will finally take off.
And I have a feeling they won’t 🙂
And gold and silver will live happily ever after? Nice bedtime story.
I think gold has a $100 up day at some point over the next couple months .. don’t ask me when and where-from ! 😉
i think should be $500 up day
The 500 dollar up day is the day the Fed pulls a China and devalues the dollar without any warning
Why not a $500 day ?
Metals and miners are dead. Gary you are wrong, the Fed will raise rates in a few weeks. The result will be more upside for stocks and more downside for metals. More of the same.
Gary, every time you make a bullish call for gold and the miners, you get slapped down by reality. The miners are failing yet again.
Umm last I checked were trading sideways not down…
Gary correctly called the first miner bounce in August, it was sharp and fast, and turned out to be your chance to get out/take profits. We’ve had back to back bull traps on GDX and the chart is very ugly. Holding and hoping with miners here is dangerous, especially if you are already underwater.
The conventional markets are looking ugly too. If we get a washout close a “Labour Day Massacre” could be on deck. I only cashed out 20% of my biotech shorts on Wednesday.
Nice closing bars by the junior miners today.
Gary,
What effect will dealying of rate hike by the Fed have on US stocks then? Same? Will stop the current correction and a rally will occur????
There’s a short term head and shoulder formation in the gold price with target 1070..
Tom you are clueless, a rise in interest rates is good for gold and silver bcos higher rates is very bad for bonds and stocks. Look at the seventies a high rate environment with soaring precious metals and a bad stockmarket. Now I find it higly unlikely that the FED is raising interest rates, but you never know. If a raise the stockmarket will crash again.
“Real” interest rates were low to negative when gold peaked in 1979-80.
http://greshams-law.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/US-Real-Interest-Rates.png
Obviously you must have been out of the country in 1979/1980. Ask anyone who owned an ARM back then and tried to make their mortgage payment