51 thoughts on “AFTER THE FOMC CHARTS

  1. mike trike

    I agree with you on the gold chart, Gary. I think silver will get smashed down to $15 and probably less before the correction is over.

    Record volume on DUST today.

  2. MuffinTop

    Totally agree with this analysis.. Although I was a little concerned this morning when I saw the Dollar burst at the seams but SLV, USO have inspired further confidence in this Bull trend.

    Also.. GDX held ‘short term’ support at $15.60 which is also very encouraging. Hang in there Bulls and don’t let a small correction scare the shit out of you – that’s amateur talk!

    1. MuffinTop

      Tulip – C’mon buddy.. Get your skinny butt over to ‘tradingview.com’ or ‘bigcharts.com’ and pull it up yourself you big baby, haha!

      Fckin love it 🙂

  3. David Silver

    Mr. Savage iI don’t agree with your gold forecast. Notixed how she followed In sync both oil and stocks today? Me thinks today’s intraday low was all she wrote therefore UP she goes in tandem hence my long snag near the lows today.

    Are you looking for FIB 50% aka $1148.75? Afterall today hiy $1152.10, why haggle I’m not worrying about a few dollars here.

    1. David Silver

      It may even hit that in overseas/overnight trading, one couldn’t capitalize until the New York open and God knows what the share prices will be then.

      Please excuse the typos (tiny smartphone keyboard)

    2. gary Post author

      Hard to say. It may have formed the cycle low today or it may have to tag the triangle trend line first. Best to wait for a swing before trying to pick the bottom.

      1. David Silver

        You have enlightened me on the cycle low theory, timing band theory and swing low confirmation. I have simply incorporated all of these with much success.

        I owe you many thanks which has served me more money to my platter and beyond.

        You are the master of masters in my book.

  4. Jonathan

    Traders say the oil report is neutral and the fundamental is still bearish. I still don’t understand why oil started surging early today and remained strong even after the Fed statement.

    1. William

      If oil doesn’t follow-through with yesterday’s bounce, then, it was just a technical rebound! Yes, the fundamental sucks, but, prices are forward looking 6-12 months time. So, a real bottom would only occur when Mr Market decides (in his own sweet time) that enough is enough!

  5. David Silver

    Guys simply look at her technicals:

    8/24 lows held five times! Bullish.
    200 MDA won’t hold her, next cluster target is $59.07 believe it or not.

  6. Bud fox

    From Trader Dan

    “In gold, every single trader who bought into this rally expecting a dovish Fed, is now running for their lives. Just as the bears were terrified prior to the Fed meeting and were exiting this AM, this afternoon it is now the bulls who are terror-stricken.”

    1. gary Post author

      Like I keep saying the gurus that caught the move down are not the ones that will spot the bottom.

      Gold has almost certainly formed a final bear market bottom in July but the perma bears will keep looking for lower lows for at least a year or more before they see the light.

      1. JT Marlin

        I have to agree with this, Gary. Rambus has been ice cold lately, especially in the PM complex. He just went all in short again this mng after getting stopped out yesterday. As for trader Dan, he’s a bit of a sensationalist with those words. Remember, these guys will show technicals that are based off of their biases (i.e.: redrawing a trendline to another tick higher or lower, finding a semi-pattern where it doesn’t exist). Be very careful with m any of these TA guys… they are extremely extremely dangerous and can get you slaughtered with their biases. Especially if you got hurt in the bear market…. you’ll think they are geniuses and then they’ll kill you with 1000 cuts on the way up too but continually trading counter trend. You’ll lost both ways. Be warned.

        As for you, Gary… thanks for the information. You are always a good read.

  7. Trond

    Stocks rallied because the Fed said they were relatively optimistic on the economy prospects. That’s why oil popped too because higher demand then more likely. (Also why silver stronger than gold silver has industrial demand).
    Had the Fed said ‘rate hike in December is out of the question’ it would been interpreted as that they knew that a recession is impending, then Dow and oil would have tumbled and gold would have popped (more than silver).

  8. Anthonyo

    Gary what is your gold chart bottom price? At or Below $1000?
    The $30 end day plunge in gold today especially in light of oil spike up is saying a lower low in gold may be in the cards.

    Stocks: head fake to pull all the bulls in and then it goes down again in a translated(forward in time) 5th wave down in November? Today was too weird a rally. Looked like short covering.

    1. gary Post author

      I think QE 4 has begun and everything will go up together.

      If stocks are doing a head fake then they’ve been doing it for 4 weeks and the only one getting faked out so far are the bears trying to call a top everyday.

      1. Anthonyo

        Interesting. QE4 has begun by virtue of Fed not raising basically. Kind of an undeclared QE4.
        So this threat of “December hike” on FOMC Weds statement is yet another smoke screen like the last times they said they will consider raising and din’t due to “global concerns”. If it’s not one thing ia another as an excuse not to raise. Then why posture a raise at all?

  9. Tech_trac

    If the bubble phase of the SPX lies directly ahead after the breakout occurs, how do you explain the 26 week trading range (resistance)? It wasn’t distribution?

    A good bull trap would suit MS MARKET YELLEN just fine!

    1. gary Post author

      That one is easy. QE3 had eneded. The market couldn’t go higher. Now I think QE4 has started.

      1. Tech_trac

        How do you know that Q4 has started?
        The $USD$ isn’t weak then because QInfinity is geater in EC,BOJ & PBOC?

    1. William

      In fact, given the overnight sharp correction in gold price, i won’t be surprised if it would do a “hammer” tonight by breaking below $1,150 and then recover later…Slow stochastic would also back down to an oversold level by then!

      1. David Silver

        William I would’ve opted for NCMGY but her OTC is too thinly traded. I like EGO, ABX and Mr. Savage’s SA.

        I think and hope the show will continue to shine on metals hence Mr. Savage’s medium/long term vision.

        Me thinks she corrected Wednesday and could eventually see Gold $5000 in 5 years.

        1. William

          hey, David, don’t get me wrong here, i only use NCM as a proxy for movement in GDX since it currently has the quality of a leader. In fact, i’ve never bought NCM in my life!

          My preference has always been with the ETF when dealing with miners…

          1. David Silver

            Gotcha William i.e. GDX. I play JNUG and DUST when warranted but like the risk/reward at times with my fav individual miners.

  10. AlexP

    spot on, WIlliam!

    As expected, gold went up just over 1180 yesterday and then reversed AGGRESSIVELY, while USD placed its HCL and then moved higher — soon to go over 98.44.

    I got stopped out on nil result on the post-FOMC $SH acquisition.
    Yet, stock market is one of the last places to be right now:
    – complacency kicks in as shorts are waning
    – divergences and double-divergences all over the place (money flow, ADL, McLellan, SKEW, TSI, RSI)
    – exhaustion signs
    – Transportation companies DID NOT FOLLOW THORUGH the broad market
    – VIX still hovers at its 200dma waiting to reject it while, very importantly, IT STARTED TO CLOSE HIGHER IN LINE WITH SPX, which makes an unusual alignment – VIX-SPX alignments are indicative of SPX trend reversals
    – yesterday was day 21 in DC
    – many market leaders (just like transports) are diverging.

    Definitely not the place to be from a reward-risk perspective –> waiting 100% in cash for DCL next week or in 2 weeks (ahead of FOMC minutes)

    1. AlexP

      SPX futures indicate that SPX may chart a harami candle pattern today –> that would add to the above-mentioned bearish signs

    2. William

      Good summary. In addition, Asian markets are just so dull today, not following U.S market’s post-Fed.’s optimism at all!

      1. AlexP

        yeap. and what you’ve said is worth underlining especially considering that in majority of cases Hong Kong stock market leads US one

  11. David Silver

    Alex for the life of me I just don”t see eye to eye on your US market bearishness:

    RUS breaking above her 50dma.
    INDU and SPX breaking abover their 200mda respectively for God’s sake.
    COMP strongest of them all going to test her all time highs!

    Your sideline anti US market anticipation from last week bearishness has you miss some golden opportunities and energy too!

    You were however spot on metals thus far.

    RUBI threw a curve ball via earnings I guess.

    1. AlexP

      yes, RUBI did so despite extraordinary results. Its price action diverging from such good results made me exit on immaterial profit right at the open, though –> Capital preservation is my foremost goal, it comes before making money.
      This stickiness/stubbornness to my rules has helped me once again

    2. William

      Except for SPX, NYA and RTY closed yesterday with a weekly “hanging man”…but then again, this is not the end of the week yet, so, these hang man can still evolve to otherwise something positive…

  12. gary Post author

    Stocks are in the window for a half cycle low but there is still plenty of time for a retest of the all time highs before this daily cycle tops. And intermediate degree sentiment still has a long way to go before becoming troubling. Right now dumb money retail is still trying to short the market. Usually that has to stop before the market has any chance of forming an intermediate top.

    1. David Silver

      Ive noticed the bearishness too in crude Monday/Tuesday hence the undercut low that followed i.e. the green light for me.

      I see the same exact sentiment as you do for metals and stocks, heck it’s seen even here!

      Again a toast to you Master Savage!

    2. AlexP

      Gary, a close of SPX below 2045 by the end of next week would confirm a daily cycle decline, i.e. the reversal that you also expect to come on us in stocks will not be a mere HCL 😉

      and, yes, I agree with you that we will see new historical highs in stocks soon (as early as first half of December) … but not before the DCL (not HCL) is set in the next 2 weeks at most

  13. Stefan

    All the Elliott wave gurus out there is calling for a final blow off top in 2016-2017 and that is inline with many others. Ok I was speculating yesterday that we could have a shortlived correction and I was Ok, but just for ½h, I went out this morning +-0 … phiew!

    70% Explorers with plenty of cashand high grade like ATAC, Strategic Metals, Kaminak, Victoria
    15% Physical
    15% Cash

  14. AlexP

    Gary, in continuum to my reply above, basically what we should see through the 1-2 weeks via the DCL to come is the former part of the right shoulder to complete a large Reversal H&S in stocks that started out in May.
    In the end, it does not matter if you see it as HCL or I as DCL, beneath the surface of interpreting data it appears WE BOTH EXPECT A TEMPORARY DECLINE IN STOCKS SOON.
    So, even if you are adamant not to admit it as such, you, like William and I, are also a short-term bear in stocks 😉

  15. AlexP

    David Silver, watch out! Gary is also a bear in stocks short-term 😉 that Gary terms the decline to come a half-cycle one or that I label it daily cycle decline is irrelevant.
    The substance of our perceptions on the state of the stock market short-term is the same: BEAR.

  16. Dan

    Global and US stocks except for a few big caps are in downtrend or have gone nowhere for over a year. Keep talking that bubble phase. I’ll say it again, people have no idea of the deflationary bust ahead. Now that shorts have covered in disgust we have the raw fuel for panic in the months ahead.

  17. AlexP

    Paul, you were interested last week in my forecast as to the whereabouts of this DCL in stocks.
    One week ago I saw it at some 1965 based on DCH of around 2075 and a retracement of 55%.
    During this week, though, stocks have put a DCH slightly higher of 2090 yesterday and have evinced larger strength than expected :
    – forecast pullback days indeed retreated as expected but by a lower force while
    – also as expected, yesterday came through with a rise but stronger than the one I had forecast on Sunday – Oct25 in a post here.

    Thus, my revised pullback for SPX is at about 2010 while I give a significant probability to see a quick shakeout just below 2000 notch.
    Good luck through the daily cycle decline to come!

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