35 thoughts on “CHART OF THE DAY

  1. gary Post author

    I’m warming to the idea that gold is now in it’s third daily cycle and only on day 8 with a possible top coming on the FOMC meeting on Oct. 28th.

    And I have a bet with Doc Postma that the HUI will hit 200 by January.

    The biggest gains always come at the very beginning and very end of a bull market. This is what the huge volume in NUGT was trying to tell us. Smart money was getting in for the initial ride out of the bear market bottom because that move tends to be where the really big gains are made very quickly.

    1. JoshuaF

      I have NUGT, but I notice that you do better holding 3 times GDX. That means if you have say $10,000 tied up in NUGT, it would be better to transfer that to $30,000 in GDX if you have the cash to spare. Compare the two charts!

  2. Sean

    Nice work! Many other analysts are still shying away from calling a bottom. I will enjoy seeing the Doc change his views!

  3. Jorgy

    In bull markets “surprises” come to the upside… Can’t wait for tomorrow’s short squeeze! The devaluation of the Yuan coupled with today’s black candle in the $USD: http://schrts.co/s2wTGk takes the FED rate hike off the table in 2016. [email protected]@k for the Federal Reserve to enter the Currency War of competitive devaluation at this month’s FOMC meeting driving the USD below 92.52 creating a “Death Cross” along the way and sending the metal and miner complex to higher highs!
    ?
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  4. David Silver

    Mr. Savage,

    Isn’t one missed possibility simply a technical breakout phenomena right before us with a FIB target to $1235 blowing right through the obvious everyone’s a genius 200 MDA top?

    My monies on that contrarian mentality that has always made me money.

    1. David Silver

      I’m an old fashoined tape reader with a trader guy instinct and I can tell you without a doubt the bad guys flipped course. It is more so evident in overseas trading.

      They say the trend is your friend and if you can’t beat am join em!

  5. Paul

    Hi Gary If this chart coincides with your previous chart then we should backfill to approx 1140 by 19/10 and then carry on up. Or have I misread this ?

    1. gary Post author

      It all depends on the dollar. If it keeps dropping all the way into the FOMC meeting on the 28th like I think it will then gold should just have brief consolidations or mild corrections at these resistance zones. The larger correction into a daily cycle low would presumably come after Oct. 28th as the dollar rallies out of it’s DCL.

      1. Paul

        Many thanx Gary

        But why would the dollar rally after the FOMC ? Most people see no rate rise till 2016 earliest now

        1. gary Post author

          Traders are selling the rumor right now. So the dollar is already discounting no rate hike. Then when it becomes reality the dollar will do the oppositie of what traders expect and rally for a bit. It won’t last long though before the dollar starts heading down again. I think it’s on its way to 88 during this intermediate cycle.

  6. AlexP

    Gary, please mind that USD has put in its DCL today, again on day 18 in its DC !

    Beige Book later today may give it the catalyst to go up into the new DCH.

    This is bad new both for gold and stocks, especially that gold just hit its 200dma and stocks had an outside day yesterday.

    on the other hand, this is great opportunity to lurk on the sideline and start buying both stocks and gold on Friday-Tuesday. This is a last chance for long-USD traders to jump off their losing train.

      1. AlexP

        as it usually happens, it may well be sooner the time to get hands stocks’ dirty – pls see my message below

    1. gary Post author

      No the dollar cycle is left translated. It should move below the previous DCL. And since the last cycle was short this one should be long. I doubt the dollar will bottom until the FOMC meeting when the Fed again fails to hike rates. Then we should get a brief bounce out of the DCL as traders “buy the news” so to speak.

  7. Gregor

    As I’ve been loudly consistently bearish on gold, it’s only right that I should congratulate Gary’s recent gold call which is of course now working out beautifully. It doesn’t change my overall call on gold: I still don’t see an end to gold’s bear market, and would be inclined to see the current move as part of the noise we’ve seen the past few years. However, Gary did call the moe very clearly from a trading standpoint and so it must be said: well done!

  8. Stefan

    Ouch HUI at 200 in January Gary. I think you will lose that bet, don’t get me wrong I am all in, in miners since 1st Oct so I would be very happy, hey I am very happy right now. My miners is up quite a bit from their low.

    However this is NOT the end of the bear, this IS a bear market rally and it will stop before year end imo.
    Cycle analysis tells us that we should see a retest or a higher low, of the current bottom at 1080, 7-15months from now and then we might be out of the woodwork. See my post here for an elliott wave analysis from a swedish analyst. It is very interesting to compare different analysis from different analysts.

    http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/513596#comment-513596

    Gary is one of the better analysts out there thats why I am still here, some is clueless though.

    1. Bill

      200 HUI is only 66 points away…all it needs is a catalyst and there are many if you look close enough…Bottom line here Gary is, the nay sayers will call Bear market rally even as Gold hits 1200 lol…keep shorting and keep covering daily, its like a stone mason chipping away at tumbled marble …

  9. Frank

    Since several days, a lot of cheap explorers like CKG, CGJ, SBB, KOR with gold at 5$/ounce in the ground up very strongly. Maybe a sign that indeed we have seen the bottom.

  10. AlexP

    Yes, Gary, DCL in the dollar is to be delayed further on. USD has broken a key 50Wma support which is unlikely to be regained – with this support blown in the air, USD is now in a free fall.

    If this proves right by the end of the day, then we will also see an end to stocks’ correction by tomorrow!
    USD bear will simply revive stocks’ bull especially that it is now recharged.

    Tomorrow morning I’ll start loading stocks

  11. gary Post author

    The reason I think 200 HUI is possible is because the biggest rallies come at the very beginning and very end of a bull market. The SPX rallied 43% out of the initial bear market bottom in 2009 over a 3 month period. Miners are many times more volatile than the S&P. A 100% move off the final bear market low should be easily attainable during this kick off rally.

    It would also start to form a head and shoulders bottoming pattern.

  12. Jay

    Covering some DUST shorts today….will cover the rest if we see $11 a share, and will add more if we see a nutty bounce above $20 again.

  13. Mr Edge

    There appears to have been a lot of noise on this blog. Thank goodness you kept pounding the table Gary.

  14. AlexP

    ADX of $TRAN:$SPX (transport divided by sp500) as low as 8 !!!
    It must get a direction from here and with a stocks bull so young and healthy, it isn’t hard to guess what that direction is gonna be as of tomorrow.

    On fundamentals’ side, Beige Book has just come in dovish.

    I’M IN THE MARKET BUYING! there is no more time to lose, folks; get in before it’s expensive!

    1. William

      Just when the street will be talking about gold’s breakout, expect short-term correction to ensue and test the breakout level!

      1. David Silver

        Thanks Williamn for your insight.
        Today I’m 6/6 green and obviously 4/6 are long miners.
        Today marks the 4th highest one day gain net hold to my all time record portfolio value literally adding another zero making it a most monumental event for me.

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