34 thoughts on “CHART OF THE DAY

  1. gary Post author

    Gold is following oil down into it’s DCL. Patience here also. Wait for the 5 day RSI to get oversold before trying to buy back positions.

  2. gary Post author

    The dollar did not follow through to the downside so we most likely are starting the third daily cycle with a top maybe on the FOMC or GDP next week.

    I guess it is also possible the dollar tops on tomorrows ECB meeting.

  3. bhowe

    Thanks for sharing. Bought DUST an DWTI recently. Looking for the best spots to get out. This helps.

  4. AlexP

    yeap, Gary, with oil inventory up a whooping +8 mil, it is most likely for crude oil to produce a DCL later this week of early next one on a bullish divergence with oscillators, meaning that choppy trading is to follow immediately after the selling climax finishes today.
    This is the kind of situation where, if I traded commodities, I would take profits on my shorts – trading further would not make sense on a reward/risk basis – closing shorts into weakness, not later.

  5. William

    GDX almost tested its Fibo.38.2% at $15.57 and bounced off; Gold never went near its Fibo.38.2% at $1,158 at all and bounced off; Both GDX and HUI tested their respective 100D-EMA and manage to stay above that level;

    You might want to take profit on your shorts here as i believe these are the run-you-into-stops by the big guys who want to scare you off the long side!

    Again, my 2cents!

    Off to Zzzz…

    1. William

      And, DXY failed its test at 95 again (for the 7th time in its 60mins chart) and rolling-over in progress…

  6. Stefan

    I am shorting NASDAQ and SPX, easy money 🙂 haha I am back in high leveraged certificates like SQQQ …

    1. AlexP

      personally, I would never do such a thing. It smells like revenge ripping the clothes off the body of the Lady MARKET! That’s not gentlemanly and she, The Market will remember you.
      One’s moves with the Lady should be gentle, yet thoughtful and firm, arising from a trading system, i.e. a politeness protocol in dealing with the Lady, which one should abide to diligently and consistently, managing entries, position sizing and risk management with unwavering discipline.


      1. AlexP

        ……..on the other hand …. if you do your homework well, size your ego, temper and ur manners, if you adopt a strict code of gentleness on a consistent basis, Lady MARKET will make the best lover you’ve ever had, She will fall in love with you, care for you, allowing you the most orgasmic benefits and adrenaline you could not have imagined to happen to you…of course, provided that you do not spoil things up getting a second of rudeness, missing to abide the trading system and risk management algorithms, because she will slap you back on the spot. She is quick in turning from a best-lover into a torturer.

    1. AlexP

      on my side: you’re welcome, David!

      PS: in line with what I told you earlier and especially to my reply to Gary above, do you see, David, shorting now is extremely risky: despite the ravaging high additional inventory of oil (+8 mil bbl), oil barely moved lower ! THIS MAKES AN EXTREMELYT BULLISH CASE FOR OIL. It doesn’t mean that you or any should go long straight away (or if yes then on tight stop loss and some 0.5% of equity exposure) but THAT IT DEFINETELY IT MAKES NO SENSE BEING SHORT NOW ON OIL, BUT AWAIT THE ENTRY SIGNAL ON THE LONG SIDE

      PS2: stocks getting slammed as expected 🙂 🙂 unsurprisingly, USD is moveing also lower.
      The pullbacks, though, are to be contained due to the ECB meeting tomorrow which scare the market from pusshing the bear acceleration

  7. Bud E Fox I

    ref SP500 index.

    I would not be surprised to see an 80-100 point decline
    in the SP500 index…IMO…

    1. AlexP

      yes indeed but not yet there though.
      wait for the daily cycle high to get hit first immediately after spx and nyse touch their 200dma and/or nasd renders a higher high over that on Sep17

  8. William

    GDX – The “shorting” pressure was so intense towards the last 30mins of market closing though buyers continuously coming in and support the price. Again, both HUI & GDX managed to hold and close around/above their respective 100d-EMA…Not sure if this is anything so significant though…

  9. David Silver

    Daily candles suggest a top rolling over in all US Indices. This will apply pressure like it did before in the commodities sector.

    Still short crude, miners and Shanghai from the open.

  10. tulip

    excerpt from zero hedge re Barclays-

    Barclays’ implied message? Bonds are risky, but stocks are safe, so please “rotate greatly” finally, and sell your bonds using the proceeds to buy risk free stocks. After all, the 0.1% – aka Barclays’ clients – has about $20 trillion in stocks and they are quite desperate to liquidate them now that a global recession ist just around the corner.

  11. AlexP

    All right, stocks down, dollar virtually still, on cautious stand-by for tomorrow.

    I expect the ECB to do nothing with the direct effect of throwing the USD off its declining trendline and stocks in a down-whirl.
    By looking at ow things moved today, I also suspect that the positive correlation btw SPC and USD to break before FOMC.
    This means that we will see :
    – continued weakness in stocks into Friday
    – sudden growth in stocks with DCH on Monday/Tuesday
    – weakness in USD.
    It all depends on what the ECB is doing or rather NOT doing tomorrow.

    If NOT doing anything as it is most likely, Friday will make a great short-term buying opportunity into stocks. Let’s see that tomorrow. Mario Draghi, it’s your move.

  12. William

    If i were to guess again, Gold “should” take the opportunity (given its broken support at $1,169) to complete the testing of Fibo.38.2% circa $1,155 to $1,158 during Asian trading hours…and then leaving plenty of room for tonight’s surprise or shock!!! Either way!

    Again, this is a perspective from using 60minutes chart…

  13. AlexP

    T-bonds bring additional evidence that stocks have yet to see their DCH (after this natural correction is over and a HCL is put today/tomorrow – unless it proves it was put yesterday if ECB goes with fresh QE – less likely but on the table):
    1) treasuries simply have to find their DCL quickly, there is an urgency there!
    2) TLT is also in an urgency to increase its negative correlation with SPX (it’s getting milder to zero lately, which is normal but has to fall back).

    Thus, if we cumulate these data, we come to the conclusion that (regardless of what ECB decides today) either today or on Monday STOCKS WILL MOVE HIGHER SHARPLY INTO THEIR DCH as treasuries find their imminent DCL and re-correlate with stocks strongly negatively 😉

    Likewise, that means that CRB and oil have or are close to bottom into their DCLs and move higher abreast stocks.
    Now, let’s see if Draghi produces something: this will either delay a little longer TLT’s daily cycle (if no decision) or cascade it sharply into DCL (if some QE is brought forth).

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