72 thoughts on “CHART OF THE DAY

  1. AlexP

    agreed, Gary.
    As I just commented on the prior post considering the inter-correlations with Treasuries, it depends on what ECB does in less than 2h:
    — if some new QE is on = TLT falls into an abrupt DCL, stocks leave an HCL behind yesterday and jump towards their HCL while gold, oil and crb prove to have put a DCL yesterday , but that’s bear lower probability
    — if ECB does nothing due to slightly larger inflationary expectations = treasuries prolong their DC, stocks produce their HCL tomorrow and move into DCH next week, gold and oil go slightly lower as you very well described.

  2. Bill in Tokyo

    I’m in the bull flag camp so far, mainly because if you’re correct that we just had THE bottom in gold, then aren’t we back to that ABCD stuff you wrote about a few yrs back, this being wave A? If so, if Wave C gets us to new highs, I’d expect this current wave A to be pretty big, and so far the HF’s aren’t on board, so it feels like a wave A – stealthy.

    1. Bill in Tokyo

      I’m actually thinking that GDX has only made 1/2 it’s move, from the Oct 2nd lows. We’ll see.

  3. Paul

    Hi Gary
    Bearing that in mind could we see a retrace to 1140 before bouncing higher and with gold at 1140 then is GDX at about $14.50 possible ? Many thanx.

  4. AlexP

    Markets are bracing for the former scenario – ECB throwing new QE: almost all are up – crude, copper, stocks, USD.
    In less than half an hour we’ll see if they are right anticipating European QE.

  5. Super Mario

    I know it’s a pipe dream, but could we have just ONE bankster presser where risk assets sell off?

  6. Paul

    Hi Alex
    Yup gold just started to move up along with pre trade GDX. Do you think we are now on the way to gold 1224 and GDX $22 by December ?

    1. AlexP

      yeap, Paul. Let’s wait what the 2 guys have to say; maybe they throw some extra-dovish statement, even though unlikely due to the hawkish stance of Bundesbank’s Weidmann

      it is so nice to see AAALL markets on a standstill πŸ™‚ πŸ™‚ awaiting the press conference
      THIS STAYS AS PROOF THAT MARKETS INDEED HAVE TRIED TO DISCOUNT THE FORMER SCENARIO TODAY, which, if indeed proven wrong, will unleash themselves.

      1. AlexP

        … if all world markets were somehow gathered in the same room, right now you could have heard a remote fly buzzing πŸ™‚

  7. Bud E Fox I

    I am not really excited about the precious metals, right now.
    Gold/GLD…does look like an a-b-c eave pattern up. Thus,
    not interested – do like the VXX, which was bought at 17.54.
    IMO…thanks all…Bud

  8. AlexP

    ….European stocks have slowly left behind a head and now are sewing the right shoulder –> getting in line for the HCL fall under scenario #2

    I’m worried about USD !!! Yesterday after the close I spoke that I saw signs the positive correlation btw USD and stocks may go negative before FOMC …. THIS ECB MEETING MAY WELL HAVE BROKEN THE CORRELATION INTO NEGATIVE TERRITORY!
    If so, we are in day 4 of a new USD daily cycle while gold and crude should dive back into their DCL

    Let’s see also how this correlation USD-SPX changes character or not

  9. Robert in Texas

    Seems to me this low –if not presently occurring– is most likely to be between the high of August 24 and the high of September 24. The reason I think this is because of my impression that you guys are better informed than I am, and that I am smarter than most other traders, and that, therefore, most other traders won’t consider what banks and oil are doing, and won’t be right if they do consider it. My experience seems to indicate that yesterday’s low of 1163.20 may be a resilient retest of August 24th’s high and that, for this reason, it may not go lower right now. Just my two cents. Gary, your ideas are much appreciated. Thanks.

  10. Paul

    Ha ha.. great Draghi waffle..waiting for this waiting for that..more options but futher evedence needed…

    1. AlexP

      good: positive correlation SPX-USD remains intact.
      β€œWe are ready to act if needed” –> this phrase of Draghi has spooked markets –> THIS KIND OF REACTIONS KEEP ME AWAY FROM FOREX & COMMODITIES’ TRADING !
      Not to mention the leverage these markets are on, which I hate.
      Plain, nice stock trading & occasional SPY put options writing is highly rewards/risk-wise

      – we are on day 5 of USD
      – Stocks left a HCL behind yesterday and we are TO WITNESS UPTHRUSTS towards DCH around 200dma of SPX and NYSE.
      DCH in stocks most likely to be hit tomorrow (day 18) or on Monday the latest!

  11. Paul

    So Alex once the 200 dma is hit posibly tday what do you imagine the retrace target for the SPX will be in your opinion ?

    1. AlexP

      Paul, I think it will be minimum fib38%, but most likely 50%-fib62% retracement.
      I am buying now at the open –> tight stop-loss, small equity at risk

      Good luck, Paul πŸ™‚ !

  12. William

    DXY did breakout on its 60mins chart but on daily chart, it is right under the nose of its immediate vertical resistance line. At the same time, gold went to intraday low of 1,162.8, just about 5 points short of Fibonacci 38.2% retracement i mentioned…

    It’s getting very interesting here!

  13. William

    And, i’m afraid the daily bar on DXY is gonna potentially churning a “shooting star” tonight!

  14. tulip

    US Treasury Postpones Next Week’s 2-Year Treasury Auction Due To Debt-Ceiling Roadblock
    Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/22/2015 – 09:29
    Moments ago the US Treasury promptly removed any latent optimism that this latest debt ceiling crisis will somehow be magically fixed on its own after it announced that it would postpone the two-year note auction previously scheduled for Tuesday, as the impasse over the debt limit constrains the nation’s borrowing. β€œDue to debt ceiling constraints, there is a risk that Treasury would not be able to settle the two-year note”
    ZERO HEDGE 10/22

  15. William

    In Summary, Gold did almost tested its Fibo.38.2% though not during the Asian trading hours as i expected earlier, but it doesn’t really matter now. So, gold should be heading for another go on its mother-of-all test in coming days!

    Please don’t be too greedy, remember to take profit as it sees fit as i don’t expect the testing of 1,198 to be successful on its 1st attempt…that would be too easy!

  16. MuffinTop

    Gary – Refresh my memory if you could…
    When are we expecting an ICL in Gold again? Early 2016 (if all goes according to plan, haha)..?

    1. gary Post author

      The timing band is sometime in Dec. unless the dollar turns and heads back down. Then it could stretch out to January.

  17. Gback

    The dollar is shooting up because the EURO is tanking, the two move together. I just can’t see a reason someone is going to buy the EURO when all the comments are dovish and most of the Fed members are talking up a rate hike.

  18. AlexP

    Lovely :
    1) Correlation SPX-USD (7-day computation) has become excessive; it needs to start cooling back into negative territory maybe as early a tomorrow
    2) USD has hit 200dma and it is most likely to trend lower from here.

    These fall in nicely with one of my scenarios: STOCKS TO GO INTO THEIR DAILY CYCLE HIGH WITH TRIMPHANT UPTHRUSTS! πŸ™‚

    PS: stocks should distribute intraday but that wont hinder the underlying frenzy buying into DCH – retailers’ vindication buying worrying not to miss the new Bull.
    I’ll dump my shares next week and go into cash waiting for the big fall πŸ˜‰
    Trading stocks is so nice and neat ! Why would anyone go into leveraged products, sorry but I do not get it

  19. AlexP

    Lady Market is always right!
    I bend to her in respect.
    It is up to us to get in sync with her Majesty, listen to her, form scenarios based on what she whispers and play as she acts.

  20. red

    Stocks Rise, Euro Falls as Draghi Hints ECB Could Expand Stimulus
    Wall Street Journal – 8 hours ago
    Global stocks rose sharply Thursday after the European Central Bank suggested it could expand its stimulus program at its December policy meeting.

  21. David Silver

    US Dollar climbing! Still short commodities.

    Had to flip gears due to two factors (Shanghai now above 50 dma and S&P now above 2040).

    Long Shanghai again.

  22. AlexP

    Below what is obvious, sector rotation is underway (off biotechs, on consumer staples at a higher speed than on discretionary) – smart money is slowly getting in gear for the BIIIG dive into SPX’ DCL after stock have reached their climax into DCH.
    Still, this bull ride is worth it πŸ˜‰

    1. james moffett

      AlexP – after today’s monster rally in stocks (and the past three weeks), are you buying into or selling the rally? When is the DCH?

  23. Anthonyo

    USD , stocks, and gold will all move up togther.

    Stock market new melt-up since Dow 16,000. Kudos to PPT.

    Start buying gold when it is at $975.

  24. Bill in Tokyo

    Good morning Vietnam! Just woke up. And, we are coiling.

    Gary, these coils look like we’re going to gap up and continue trending up soon. But aren’t the cycles saying we should be topping now? I just don’t get cycles …

    Anyways, if we do bust out and trend north, will you be buying? Or do you think it will be short-lived? Like a 2-3 days and then poof out?


  25. AlexP

    Gary, dear Gary, dear All, there is a new reality you have to accept: USD IS A NEW YEARLY CYCLE SINCE AUGUST 25 — YCL was on AUG24 !

    This has been concealed by a shorterned 2-daily-cycle inermediate cycle which FAILED to break above 50dma and its upper cycle band.

    This new daily cycle we are now in day 5 WILL PROVE …… RIGHT-TRANSLATED !
    Now USD will search or its new YCH.

    The more you fight the idea folks (Gary, I am convinced you are now convinced by the same very thing) , the more it proves the situation is like this from a contrarian perspective and that USD has now room to go higher (after some natural corrections, of course)

    Do not fight the Lady Market, embrace her gently!

  26. AlexP

    ……the final proof will come when USD breaks above 98.42 , the high of August — i.e. it produces a MONTHLY LOW πŸ˜‰
    This proof will come in quickly πŸ™‚ πŸ˜‰

    1. William

      And, a classic RH&S pattern breakout is not something that you want to mess up with, especially “shorts”!

  27. james moffett

    Gary — after today’s monster rally in stocks (and the past three weeks), are you buying into or selling the rally? Was yesterday the half cycle low?

  28. William

    Was so wrong about DXY, no shooting star, broke another resistance…but, it’s coming close to the last vertical resistance at 97-ish of its “indecisive pennant” or rather a “descending triangle” (whatever you want to call it) since feb/mar this year…

    If, indeed, it breakouts from above 97 level in no time, precious metals will be doomed again…

    Am not an advocate of this scenario though…

  29. William

    Equities breakout everywhere, but, beware of a potential “head-fake”…book your gains diligently!

  30. Anthonyo

    William, “Some” head fake…it has been on a tear since Dow 16,000 bottom. First it was the failure of bears to close under ow 16K in 5 times they tried and failed within a 2 week period at that time…Then the PPT took the ball and ran with it…..They cooked last Fridays job report to make it look worse than it was: they got 1000 Dow points UP because of it…..Then they winked at Draghi to vomit jaw boning about QE ….and they got another 300+ points UP out of that too…..Well played PPT, well played.

    Head fake? The head fakers don’t even know who is doing it. This thing will melt up, until it doesn’t, and that is around 15,000 points UP from here in the Dow in 2-3 years.
    They will wring this baby to get all the juice out of it and will set us up for a Huge inflection point after it implodes.
    Just hope it wont be a violent inflection.

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