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Lots of gaps to fill on GDX.
Economic reacceleration. It will be interesting to see how gold does with NO recession and an improving stock markets everywhere. Gold in for a long breather. Plenty of action elsewhere.
Gold had no trouble going up during the last two stock market bulls from 2003-2008 and from 2009-2011.
Everyone just needs to watch this video for the STOCK:GOLD CORRELLATION thesis from a week or so back. Gold up, stocks down until the 7-Yr Cycle Low prints.
http://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/2016/02/stockgold-corellation.html
Now that equities l@@ked to have bottomed it’s everything goes up together (i.e. $GOLD, $SPX and the $USD). Got it! ?
It’s been my expectation that everything would go up together once oil strikes a final 3YCL and stocks a final 7 YCL. I expected gold to bottom ahead of oil and stocks just like it did back in 2008. It appears to have done that in Dec. Otherwise I would have to assume that stocks and oil still aren’t done going down.
For most of the last 16 years all assets have gone up together. I think it’s time to return to that correlation.
Jorgy — You, Anthonyo, and Jay should have a threesome 🙂
There’s a couple more on here that’d like to join you guys but I forgot their names. Ma bad.
Gary, If miners need a couple of weeks for correction, that should mean miners are already intermediate top in place, do you think so?
If they just go sideways then they may need a couple of weeks to work off the stretch. If they correct then they could work it off in 2-3 days. Sentiment is already starting to sour on miners. 1-2 more down days and it should reach bearish levels capable of driving the last leg up in the intermediate cycle.
Sentiment got very bullish during the last 4 weeks. In order to get that last leg up we need to get traders bearish again so we potentially have another group of buyers for the next leg up.
These corrective moves are called daily cycle lows. Their job is to cool off overbought conditions and cleanse sentiment to pave the way for the next leg up.
Jacob 2
Right . This whole movement up in gold was due to the selloff in equities back in January & early feb, with the thought that eqiities would go into a bear market . That severe selloff in equities did not happen .
It was just a normal correction , so there was no need for more QE . Gary said that the 7 yr low would precipitate more QE and that would cause the gold bull to resume .
So , now that equities are recovered . I’m not sure why gold should remain so high .
What am I missing ?
Keep moving the trend lines… All we need is a couple red lines explaining that we’re going to $2000 by year end 2017, a leap option trade suggestion and it’ll be flash back to the future or Q4’11. The fact that you’re not drawing price projections breaking up and out tells me you think this is a 50/50 at best we see a higher high during this IC. If the IC topped in GOLD and bottomed in the USD the Johnny Come Lately’s are going to be crucified over the next 2-3 months! ?
Golds has already rallied past two prior intermediate highs. I’m not sure what you mean about not making a higher high. The miners also made a higher intermediate high.
If it looks like a bull market, and it acts like a bull market I have to assume it is a bull market.
If gold can hold onto gains despite short term optimism it will be another sign the bear market is over.
C’mon Gary! Don’t say that.. You’re totally gonna upset the Bears — and you know how they get 🙂
ROOOOOAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAR!!
Remember the bullish percent chart? It too is saying that something different is happening this time than the bear market rallies that came before.
Will see in a year from now. Sure there is a possibility this is a bull rally. It could also be a blip in a continuing bear. Much like the breakout in 2012.
Either way we’ve made good money off the move. So does it really matter?
Gary, I believe it matters a great deal..
FWIW: Believe the bottom is in for gold and commodities. Fear of recession is what drove the most recent rally but as Frank Holmes would say “the love trade” will keep it going. Global growth NO RECESSION. Negative interest rates also puts the wind at golds back. In 3 or 4 years gold is at 2700. That said it’s not just all about gold. There are lots of ways to make money given a global economic reacceleration. My fav’s: materials, capital goods and emerging markets. Buying these here is like buying treasuries in 80, tech in 97, gold and oil in 2001 or biotech in 2011. Your children will thank you.
I am a stock bull for 2 weeks, and based on recent behaviour, my stance that spx could be heading for its bull run objective since 2009 of 2300-2500 could be in play. If that is the case, Muffin is going to cry. Because there is high likelihood that gold will head down. Bottom line, if platinum and silver havent made higher high, this gold rally is just a risk off play.
I’m a bull and a bear… Just swing trading in and out. You don’t have to be in either camp you just have to make $$$. Everyone has different time frames and clearly we are seeing more bullish evidence in the last couple months than we’ve seen in the last couple years. ✌️
Gold is going down. $1,180 before $1,275.
GDX back to $14.50-$15.25. I am short so biased.
Best case for Gary it forms a bull flag to bleed sentiment while the oscillators reset. That should give bears time to exit at at least the current price if not lower.
Bull Porn:
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-35703995 the sheepeople are scared so they are turning toward physical gold! M. Gold’s up +16%, but w/ the $GOLD:$SILVER ratio is > 80 which makes silver a better buy. Buy precious metals now or be priced out forever! ?
Silver is at a spot that it should have bottom. ie, yesterdays low. If it doesnt , its bad. But bigger picture is this. You know what is an island bottom? Go look at HSI weekly. Thats why i long HSI and made good profits. You know what is an island top??? Go look at SLV daily. Sure looks like an island top.
Victor:
NSA reports earnings today after the close.
Most likely I’ll raise my pilot position to a full position tomorrow if fundamentals & price action warrant such a decision.
…yet it is likely to move lower to 17.55 today before blasting higher.
I would not build a full position on it now, a pilot is an exposure large enough – I’ll await the post-reporting signal first.
Silver needs to make a higher high in order to confirm golds move. It has not
Exhaustion has set in for now.
Retest of the golds 3 year breakout is imminent 1120-1150 area.
Gold is following The Yen’s lead as they are both risk off assets.
Yes, Gary You have told weeks before,the 50-50 message. everything goes UP-UP-UP
1) The price of gold in the futures market is sagging relative to the price of gold in the spot market.
2) The price of silver in spot and the futures market is sagging relative to the price of gold in the futures and spot market.
Gary, are you suggesting that the 7 YCL is in for SPX?