57 thoughts on “CHART OF THE DAY

  1. Gary Post author

    Sorry I can’t follow up on comments much right now. I’m on a climbing trip in UT and not available most of the day. When I get back to camp most of my time is devoted to putting out the nightly reports and responding to subscribers on the premium site.

  2. Alexandru Popovici

    Gary, gold is not in a pennant –> it will chart a symmetrical triangle instead.

    I’m postponing the re-acquisition of GLD for tomorrow.

    GDX has just :
    – produced the contrarian golden cross and
    – broke the lower trend line of the bearish wedge.
    Cascading selling should ensue down into DCL both for miners and for gold.

    1. Enoch

      yup while gold can certainly find support at 1200 and regain momentum but I am more interested in see this level crack and usher in a panic sell off which will be a golden opportunity

      1. Alexandru Popovici

        I personally doubt it: gold will not move below 1205 –> GOLD WILL MOVE INTO ITS DCL JUST TO DRAW THE LOWER TREND LINE OF THE SYMMETRIC TRIANGLE with FEB16’s low of 1191.

        I will repeat myself saying this: I’ll re-buy gold as soon as 2 things occur:
        – gold touches 1210
        – I see the first sign of strength either in miners or in gold itself

    1. Enoch

      looks like the dollar will surprise everyone this week for a very strong move to the upside. (possibly even poking above 100 on the index) while ultimately dollar will fall but when this happens it will crash gold/silver one last time which will offer a fantastic buying opportunity and a health correction for the mining sector. The fact the silver crashed was an early indicator something is about to turn.

  3. Alexandru Popovici

    Absolutely, Gary, gold has been on a sell signal for my risk management system since FEB19.
    It has had to move lower.
    Any acquisition of miners/gold since FEB19 has been an extremely risky move outside of a scalping strategy for speculation.

    1. Gary Post author

      Not risky unless you are a short term or day trader. I’m accumulating positions to hold for 5 years and take advantage of capital gains taxes as opposed to earned income taxes. DCL’s and ICL’s are meaningless to me.

      1. Alexandru Popovici

        yes, indeed, for a value/position-oriented strategy it makes perfect sense what you recommend.
        but this strategy did not go in line with your recommendation to sell that you had before FEB19 in expectation of DCL.

        1. Gary Post author

          We didn’t get the DCL I was expecting. Gold has been consolidating while the dollar rallys instead of correcting so I reentered almost immediately.

          1. Alexandru Popovici

            exactly this is what I am referring, Gary: on the one hand you suggest you have a positioning strategy of gradually accumulating (which is quite fine) but on the other hand you contradict, or you fail to respect your trading rules on this strategy by selling at [an expected] DCL as you did and recommended before FEB19 – when I was saying that gold was worth keeping not divesting.

            This is my point and what I am drawing you attention to: you seem not to be consistent with your rules…

  4. ChrisG

    I suspect all these speculations on whether gold tank harder or milder will be concluded by Friday’s nfp

    1. Alexandru Popovici

      Chris. jobs report will produce USX’ decline to its DCL (hence gold’s rise into a new DC) regardless of what figure is printed –> markets will need to cool off.
      The figure itself, though, will be relevant for what lies after: an IC decline for USX via a left-translated DC or another right-translated DC with mirroring trends for gold.

        1. Alexandru Popovici

          you put the math in, MT:
          profit, profit, big profit, small loss, small loss, small loss, small loss, small loss, profit, big profit, big profit.

  5. Alexandru Popovici

    ….miners have also charted an engulfing red, outside-day candle πŸ˜‰
    the small “doom” for gold and GDX that I have been preaching since FEB19 is coming πŸ™‚

    1. Jorgy

      [email protected]@k at ol’ DUSTy run higher… The weekly candle come Friday’s NFP # is going to be a sight for sore eyes! Everyone’s got it wrong… The bear market isn’t over in commodities, the commodity and debt supercycle ended, China’s crashing as are Brazil, Canada and Australia’s economies. The G-20 meeting didn’t usher in a Shanghai Accord and everyone is on their own! Now it’s DUST’s turn to moonshot to my $11 target! ?

      P.S. Bulls make $, Bears make $ and Pigs get slaughtered! ?

  6. Alexandru Popovici

    – VIX has been testing its 200dma these days
    – all indexes have played with their 50dma.

    Now all averages are set to be penetrated.

  7. Bill

    Gold is down $7 as of this post, I see nothing earth shattering here.. GDX is down 3% and is a normal trading range, again nothing earth shattering that warrants an abandoned ship…Adding some GDX while its on sale.

    1. Enoch

      the thing about trading stocks via metals is that it can gap up or down. while my bias is long gold I agree that they are ripe for breaking down, enough to scare everyone off only to find out its the next best opportunity in acquiring them beside the lows it set in this year.

  8. Alexandru Popovici

    scaling in to a full position in shorting US treasuries.
    also bringing closer to chest my stop on all short position to reduce capital at risk.

  9. jacob 2

    Big up today. Consumer discretionary/ bio techs/medical the old market leaders… no shows. New market leadership: materials (includes the PM) , industrial and emerging markets . Over the next few years inflation makes a comeback IMHO. Good luck.

  10. Robert Burt

    About Popovici’s comment about “Trading rules,” I’d just like to say that when it comes to dealing with dynamic non-verbal phenomena such as market movements, words are necessarily superficial. Words are a product of thought, not the basis of thought. So, while potentially complex, words describing a system do not and cannot completely and accurately describe the thing itself. The market doesn’t move according to rules but in consequence to behaviors, so any system can only be incomplete in some things and distorted in some ways.

  11. Alexandru Popovici

    I hope you bailed out in due time with that short-stocks trade or that you had placed a small weight to it [as you had told me you intended] plus, very important: a close stop due to the extremely bullish setup of stocks market since last Wednesday and particularly since Friday when than MASSIVE, literally TECTONIC segments rotation commenced.

    1. victor

      Thank you Alex, yes, I chickened and get out in Feb 26, with small profit, waiting to short it starting with small amount at around 1970…, would you approve?

  12. Walt

    Oh man , if the s&p takes out 1975, look out . I pitty those that went short weeks ago at 1875 , thinking its going to 1600-1700

    1. Alexandru Popovici

      it looks like that indeed, Walt.

      Gary was the first to call the bottom in stocks market bear (I had called only Transports’ bottom).
      Hey, hey, to our host here!

      Even if it proves another dead-cat bounce, I will be quick to take my profits home on the long-stocks and short-treasuries trades.

    1. Alexandru Popovici

      yeap, in gold Gary succeeded there too.
      I personally was looking for one more dive in gold to follow miners’ lead into IC decline – which I had successfully called on JAN 8
      (I remember warning Muffin Top, David Silver and William on their long miners trades at the time).

      But …Gary warned that gold would not follow miners in the 2nd part of JAN and he was right!

  13. Alexandru Popovici

    VICTOR, my friend, I think you already know my answer πŸ™‚ : NO stocks-short speculative trade outside unless you implement an intra-day scalping strategy.

  14. Duncan Smith

    “Buy and hold for five years”, crystal balls out again I see. Lets hope the deflation has finished. It seems to pretty healthy here in Europe, as interest rates have turned negative.

      1. Duncan Smith

        Nice read. The migrant crisis will add to Europe’s financial woes hence more deflation.

  15. victor

    Good reading market pulse Alex…,
    “February 17, 2016 at 12:44 pm
    As forecast on Sunday treasuries have put their DCL today.
    – treasuries to rise to new highs in the next days and next week before rolling over into IC decline
    – stocks will rollover too as treasuries will be in DC advance.
    any revisions here? … and, you don’t think gold will be in decline for so long? !! Thank you
    “February 15, 2016 at 3:49 am
    SPX will get close to 2000 in 5 weeks’ time, don’t worry!”

    1. Alexandru Popovici

      Victor, you are fantastic! πŸ™‚

      My forecasts are kept intact except just one slight twist –> I have now an over 51% probability of stocks being likely in a new bull market.

      Good evening, my dear e-friend! πŸ™‚
      I’m getting away from my computer – things are crystal clear, no room for surprise today.

  16. Walt

    Alex , Agreed . If 1975 s&p gets taken out this week , then I’d say the low is in for the year . Next year , 2017 , later in the year I think the bear starts .

  17. Bill in Tokyo

    Regarding PM’s, I still think that just pure TA is best. I don’t trust COT, plus other good traders like Clive Maund say that COT means we have a steep decline soon. But, me, I just don’t trust it anymore. And with all due respect, while cycles may work long term, short term I don’t think they work anymore. I believe that manipulation is still in full play, so they can’t work. Again, just my opinion.

    So what do the charts say? Spot $GOLD is still consolidating, and the break is usually in the direction of the trend, but until it breaks out (or down), if I owned I’d hold, and if it breaks out I’d buy more, or down sell. GDX is topping. FXY is topping. TBT is bottoming. These all net out the same.

    But price trumps all – it could be that as Gary thinks that gold will break out, and GDX will follow.

    So my one and only thing I wish to say is, just follow price. Everything else is an illusion, me thinks.

  18. Bill

    Once again unless your day trading Gold your going up in flames. All early gains are now lost, so those who are confident in their shorts and walk away from the computer thinking ” I got this in the bag ” learn another lesson.

    Times are changing in this sector…

    1. rcun

      The day Janet Yellen took rates up, the 10 year treasury yield was 2.25%. Today the 10 year is at 1.80%. 30 year mortgage rates are 3.45%. Yellens 1/4% increase went down the toilet. The bond market does not believe rates are ready to go up. The bond market is in charge. No person gets to decide where interest rates are headed. The fed follows…they do not lead. Janet will get her spanking from the bond market if she tries it again!

  19. Anthonyo

    The price of gold in the futures market is sagging relative to the price of gold in the spot market.

    The price of silver in spot and the futures market is sagging relative to the price of gold in the futures and spot market.

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