GDX Breakouts

GDX Breakouts

Strong trending moves in markets, such as GDX, are rare. Most of the time markets are either in a sideways consolidation or slowly stair stepping higher. Neither one of patterns is conducive to making money buying GDX breakouts. In modern markets you need to buy low and sell high. This is where cycles analysis and sentiment are critical tools to use.

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63 thoughts on “GDX Breakouts

    1. Gary Post author

      Which makes my point. If you buy bottoms you can still sell for a profit if it doesn’t trend (which is what we’ve been doing). As long as one is making money and not taking loss after loss you can still keep pulling the trigger.

  1. Jay

    Nice bear-market rally in GDX! Retail will be damned lucky if upper single digits is the lowest we EVENTUALLY see in GDX before the final bottom is in. Just sayin’! πŸ™‚

    1. Gary Post author

      How long are you going to ignore the evidence that the bear market is over?

      The Fed needs inflation, suppressing gold at this point defeats the purpose.

      1. Herman

        The FED is out of options. They raised once, to save face, but can’t raise again. Soon, they will be forced to entirely reverse their policy and start QE again, but it won’t stop the bust.

        1. Gary Post author

          This was never going to be an extended bear market. Weren’t you paying attention when I explained the 7 year cycle?

  2. MuffinTop

    This chart also clearly highlights the fact that one’s trading strategy should include a {carefully selected} number of different tools to help you make better trading decisions.

    I, for one, did not look to buy at every breakout but waited instead for everything in my Arsenal to line up accordingly πŸ™‚

  3. Gary Post author

    The break of the intermediate trend line is imminent. Just like I said would happen during this first daily cycle. We may pull back from this resistance zone for a day or two but between now and late next week we are going to go through this level.

    The market just continues to chug higher day after day, breaking through one resistance level after another and yet the perma bears continue to call tops. Talk about a broken clock.

    1. basspro57

      Hi Gary…I just want to confirm my interpretation is correct. You are still thinking that Gold will make a run up between now and the end of next week. A big pullback will then occur and present another buying opportunity in May. Don’t buy now. Don’t short now…just wait???

      1. Gary Post author

        Correct. It’s too late in the intermediate cycle to buy now even if gold delivers one more pop.

    1. Kosta C

      Gary,

      Why do you not start this trend line at the may peak in prices? I am curious to the reasoning behind aligning to the highs you selected in both the SPX and DJI.

      Thanks,
      Kosta

    1. Herman

      do not forget to exit in time, somewhere next 1-2 weeks. This is the final countertrend rally in stock, it is about to end and we will see this level not again for some time.

      1. Gary Post author

        No it is not. The COT is too bullish for this to be a bear market rally. The markets are setting up for the final bubble phase. I’ve tried to get traders in at the very bottom so you can make insane amounts of money off this move. Continuing to hang on to a perma bear bias is going to prevent you from profiting from a big big move in the years ahead. The next DCL in early April will be your next great buying opportunity. Don’t miss it again.

      2. Bill

        Herman with the fuzzy hair and pointy ears making another failed call. DON’T FOLLOW THESE TROLLS FOLKS THEY’VE BEEN PLAYING HE SAME TUNE FOR MONTHS NOW AND HAVE RACKED UP MASSIVE LOSSES!… ” BE WARNED “

    1. Herman

      will likely jump tomorrow. The countertrend rally in EUR will likely accelerate once it breaks 1,13, pulling gold and commodities higher.

  4. Walt

    Aug 2015 was an obvious buy point for gold after that waterfall Down .That’s an easy one . The bottom was there , if you think “the bottom is in” right now . So , really gold then , gold bottomed in Aug 2015 , not dec 2015

  5. Brent

    “When Will We Know the Bubble is Bursting?’…interesting charts and thoughts at 24hgold.com in an op ed by Bill Downey who suggests that interest rates are the all important key to watch.

  6. Stefan

    I talked to a highly skilled analysts and he said the decision has not been taken yet whether to taper or ease, so it can go either way.

  7. Ralph Wiederzane

    Gary still in the driver’s seat if the number of non-believers is any indication. How long can guys like Hermy and Jay keep getting punched in the mouth before they throw in the towel? Its interesting to watch for sure.

    I’m waiting until the early April expected DCL to get long biotechs via XBI. Hope it gives me the opportunity, meanwhile I remain 75% invested in miners for the next few years or HUI 1000, whichever comes first. πŸ™‚

    1. Herman

      You guys are missing the point that I am riding these countertrend rallies up, including LABU (posted it a few topics lower). Good calls by Gary. But longer term he is wrong, and that will show up soon.

      BTW, you guys suffer heavily of confirmation bias and idolization tendencies, in addition to name-calling/insulting, that is always a big red flag. Smart people don’t need that.

  8. Ralph Wiederzane

    Soopa-long term chart on miners, check out the ratchet higher on the far right side! Bears might want to reconsider their position as sharp, extended moves usually suggest further in the same direction.

    http://www.bgmi.us/

  9. Gary Post author

    I see Al Has decided to delete my comments over at Kereport. Too bad as I was the only one calling the markets accurately. Doc has been hopeless lately with his charts, missing the entire rally in miners and actually trying to short gold. He called for the dollar to continue lower and that very day it started to rally.

    Rick has been pretty good except his perma bear bias is going to prevent him from riding the bubble phase in stocks.

    Chris is still stuck on the “fundamentals” in oil and has let a 60% rally pass him by.

    And then we have the clown Avi Gilbert who missed the entire rally in miners and is now telling traders they are going up another 100%. Seriously? recommending to buy after miners have already rallied 90%. What a nitwit.

    1. Bill

      And yet none of these clown you mentioned Gary have talked about the rally (8% or better) in Biotech. Once again when we rally 200% will they say buy lol and that’s when I’ll sell.

    2. Marco

      I often comment on KR saying you are the father of this baby bull in gold (let’s hope it will grow strong!!!).
      They are not so happy about that πŸ™‚

      1. Gary Post author

        I was more than happy to post comments from time to time. I just didn’t want to do the interviews any longer. Until Avi and that idiot Birdman started attacking me everything was civil. But for what ever reason Al has decided to tolerate their crap slinging at me but when I defend myself he deletes my comments.

    3. tulip

      He banned you because you’ve stuck to your focus and been correct and he can’t tolerate a former colleague being on ‘comments’,,, and being far more accurate than his show. Avi shows his stripes by being petulant, pugnacious, in your face… and thats acceptable over there. oh well.

    4. tulip

      Ralph I apologize- G was referring to gold as a next buy.. in May…
      it is too easy to get confused… biotech, S&P , gold…..

    5. Vortex

      Gary you have made some great calls lately and you should be proud.

      Having said that, you should have taken the high road with the whole KER situation. All you needed to do was let your correct calls do your talking.

      You don’t need to call out Doc or Rick or anyone else like a vindictive kid. You should be better than that. Even if Doc and Rick is/was wrong on their calls they are still two of the good guys.

      Everyone already knows that Avi is an arrogant ass and will never let someone else get the last word in. Birdman is clearly a smart aggressive agitator that is allowed to talk shit to anyone without every being called on his behavior. Big Al loves that guy for some reason.

      Both Avi and Birdman should have been ignored because your record speaks for itself and not getting into a school yard tit for tat would two arrogant self promoting agatators would have been better.

      Honestly the first time Al deleted your comments and made some rather unfaltering comments about how you left Ker should have been a precursor. You should have never went back there to be abused again. Its just commonsense.

      Anyway, I just think if you take the high road that will hold far more honor and clout and speak volumes rather than slamming the folks over there (who may well deserve it).

      Al should have kept the personal crap behind closed doors and talked to you personally, but the horse is now out of the barn.

      Just my 2 cents.

      V

      1. Gary Post author

        Probably so, I’m done with them either way. I was frustrated that Doc and Chris both started to pile on as well.

        Rick has been the one stand out guy who has stayed on the sidelines. The only negative is the perma bear stuff. But to each his own.

        1. D.J.

          You’re too good for that show, Gary. I was first exposed to your work via Al’s website, but I have no use for that site now and here I am. There’s a reason for that, and anyone who’s been following you recently knows what it is.

          1. Ralph Wiederzane

            True, and I ONLY visited KER in the past because Gary was there sharing his thoughts, other than that I found the show, and both Al and Cory’s opinions a waste of time. I can’t comment on the rest of the crew since I never listened to any other shows except Gary’s. I’m glad you’re not letting Al leech off your energy and analysis any longer, which was the impression I always had since they are so non-committal on everything. What’s the point of having a show to analyze markets if they never see a trade they like?

            Al should’ve been writing Gary some big checks to come on his show!

        2. tulip

          In fairness- I never heard anyone diss you in any way other than Al on numerous occasions.If Chris did he also ridiculed elliot wave (avi).
          Jay Taylor has always defended you as you are aware of. He IS the only person there who openly sided with you.Very poor judgement over there from above.

          1. Marco

            Anyway I discovered Gary on KER and I would like him to return on that show because it was a much better show , now it’s boring.
            Let’s hope Gary and Al will smoke the peace pipe SOON!

  10. Joseph

    Canadian budget was released today and the calculated assumption was OIL in 2016 to AVG $50 by year end….. Top was $62, Low was 26…. The budget is heavily weighted to work in Canadians favour if OIL recovers and the CDN Govt believes it will….. Not to say they have a big say in this but the budget factored this in…..

  11. MuffinTop

    LABU — 2 hr Chart: Waiting for an intraday pull-back which would potentially set up the right shoulder of an inverse H&S.. which as you know is very bullish πŸ™‚ Or.. it could just keep going up! I’m happy either way.

    The not necessarily so good..

    XBI — Weekly Chart: Price is bumping up against the 200 EMA and if it doesn’t break, then we could be in trouble! Also worth keeping in mind.. If it does break, the bounce up could be the 4th wave of a 5 wave decline, which means we’ll need to lock in profits fairly quickly.

    Let’s see what happens kids πŸ™‚

  12. Don

    XBI and LABU are on a tear, up four days in a row. I think pretty much everyone is bullish on the biotechs. I wish I had my 100 shares of LABU that I sold less than a week ago so could sell them again. NYSE is struggling with it’s 200 MA, closing just below it for the third day. The more widely watched S&P has held above it’s 200 MA for 5 trading sessions. A rounding top is forming on the dailies. I’m feeling bearish.

    1. Gary Post author

      Let me caution again that this has been one of the most powerful rallies in the last 60 years. That kind of buying thrust isn’t typical of a bear market rally.

      It is typical of a market that is emerging from a multi-year cycle low though.

      In terms of the NYSE the market has delivered everything I wanted to complete a 7 YCL. The PPT has propped the S&P up a bit but I still think we are now starting the bubble phase over the next 2-3 years.

  13. Vortex

    Folks this is a bit OT, but I thought I would pass it along.

    Michael Belkin who is a really smart guy is absolutely frothing at the mouth about the potential of Silver stocks going forward over the next few years.

    The leverage on some of these stock is going to be mind-boggling. At $30, $40, and $50 dollar silver the miners could make you more than wealthy even in dollar terms. (My words)

    At $100 dollar silver or more, some of the prices on these stocks will have story’s written about them in history books if the right ones are selected.

    1. Excelsior

      Vortex – I agree that the upside leverage in the Silver miners will be stunning to investors 3-5 years from now when/if Silver gets back up into the $30-$50 range. Most large producers just need Silver in the $16-$18 range, and the small producers will thrive at $18-$19 silver and higher.

      The Silver producers have worked the last few years to reduce down their AISC, and this will magnify their larger margins when the metal prices inevitably rise. One last area that will help boost the margins for Silver miners will be the recovering base metals pricing in Zinc, Lead, Copper. Cheers!

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