runaway move

runaway move

While runaway moves are pretty rare, and the odds are not high one is beginning, we do have the conditions where one could develop. This makes my warnings to not sell short or buy any of the VIX vehicles pertinent.

We have a market that is coming out of a 7 year cycle low. We have global QE on a massive scale. We have interest rates at 0 or negative all over the world. We have the Fed clearly backing down on their threat to raise rates. There is 0 chance of a recession. And the most important factor: we have a huge pool of traders who believe we’ve started a bear market, so there is a gigantic amount of fuel to drive a runaway move as these traders are forced to cover and chase.

Like our new Facebook page to stay current on all things Smart Money Tracker


    1. Gary Post author

      The miners already rallied 90%. They’ve kind of already had their runaway move. I expect they will correct over the next 4-6 weeks, but it may be a mild correction.

      1. stewie

        Gary parabolic moves don’t have mild corrections. Look at Gold Jan 2015 rally. Fast parabolic move and then correction that erased entire rally and made lower low.

      2. Jasen

        Gary how does the BLEES rating for gold act in a bull market. In other words will it push all the way back to 100 as a signal to start buying again, or does it push back up to 70-90 in a bull market. I know we’re waiting on the IC to play out as well. Thanks

        1. Gary Post author

          The one difference that often occurs during a bull phase is that the Blees rating can reach maximum bearish levels (from 0-10) and price just continues to rise or stagnates but doesn’t come crashing back down.

          The Blees rating for silver has been at maximum bearish levels for 7 weeks now….

  1. Bud Fox


    This time I have to agree with you about a runaway move. They sometimes start after a decent decline and with a break away gap that locks everyone out waiting for a pullback that never comes.

    The problem is it already happened on January 2nd, 2013.

    1. Gary Post author

      Sort of a runaway move but not really in the strick sense. The move in 2013 didn’t really qualify as there was still clear dips down into daily and intermediate cycle lows. In a runaway move you lose the normal cycle structure. The corrections become measured and can happen at any time during the move. The runaway in 06 the correction size was 25-40 points.

      Also keep in mind that just because we had a strong move in 13 doesn’t mean it can’t happen again in 2016. Runaways are powered by loose monetary policy and plenty of fuel (aka too many people on the bearish side of the market that are forced to cover and chase).

  2. Jerry


    What will trigger another long position in the market? I must admit, the bears seem to be everywhere.

    1. Gary Post author

      Maybe, I’ll have to decide next week if the markets fail to move down into DCL’s.

  3. Van

    Gary, how about looking at other markets rather than just the US? European & Asian stock market charts look far worse than the SPX, with well established lower lows and lower highs. It is not possible that the US can continue the bull market by itself, much less a blow-off top.

      1. Van

        More example of US hubris? If the US is the outlier, what are the chances that the US will reprice to follow everyone else, rather than vice versa? Just putting it out there. I do not rule of the possibility of a new high, but I think we are approaching the window where markets are peaking before traditional summer weakness arrives.

    1. Gary Post author

      Actually the trannies are now in a new bull market having rallied more than 20% and regained the 200 DMA. It won’t take too much more to turn the 200 back up.

    1. Gary Post author

      As I’ve said any bubble phase has to create massive pessimism before it begins. That is what generates the fuel for the move. Biotech is building a base just like the miners did. Once it is finished the move up will begin. If you look at many individual bios they are building big flat bases, very similar to what many of the miners and energy stocks have done. Some bottomed months ago. Some like AMGN never even blinked during the recent bear market.

      We just have to be patient. Obviously that is not a strong point for most retail traders, but it will happen. The bubble phase has to be led by biotech. That’s where the innovation is.

      1. Enoch

        perhaps the successful creation of a Zika Virus vaccine this summer will be the catalyst or will add fuel to the fire if biotech is in the midst of a strong move up

      2. jacob 2

        Not sure what the market leadership is going forward. Own biotech as I like the charts and the risk reward. However, a strong believer in the late cycle stuff as the place to be as we get inflation creep; materials, industrials and emerging markets. Should be interesting always is. Enjoy your weekend.

  4. Huckleberry Finn

    Gary you are wrong. We have some downside before the move up begins. But no recession on the cards, you are right about that.

    1. Gary Post author

      I lay out what to look for next week to signal that a runaway is starting in the weekend report.

  5. pepe le pew

    “Gary you are wrong.” Gotta love these confident statements from internet nobodies. Dude, you go down that river on your rickety raft. I think I’ll set sail with Gary…

  6. Henry

    Some of you might want to go look at his archives.
    He’s wrong as much as he’s right. Don’t bet the house on his calls…he can quickly change his tone if we get a nice move down. Remember folks, he sells newsletter.

    1. Bill

      How about a link to your blog we are all interested in your calls, losses and so on…we will wait.

    2. pepe le pew

      You are correct on all points, Henry. However, Gary is presently on a hot streak, and when he is on a hot streak, it pays to pay attention.

  7. Duncan Smith

    Was the US in recession when the dot com bubble burst or when the housing bubble burst?

  8. Pat Jerrick

    Since so many stocks are in triangle formations including the SP500,Yes there could be a big move. Chances favor a move down as down sloping formations are weaker and have broke down in this topping formation Also crude oil could have topped and completed leg D of a EDT this weak. If so calling for a rapind decline below $30 and a lot lower for wave E low in 2016.

    1. Bill

      He’s giving you an IDEA you either go with it or you don’t that simple, no one is twisting your arm….

    2. Gary Post author

      Actually the market did exactly what I said it would do. While the perma bears over at the kereport kept trying to call a top all the way up. I clearly stated that the Nasdaq would retest the 2000 highs and probably deliver a marginal breakout above that level before the market topped. I also guaranteed that there would be no follow through to a breakout and that we would have to have a deep correction before there was any chance of the market moving significantly above 5132.

      So the reality is I called the markets exactly and it’s why the stock portfolio has been making money and consistently outperforming the S&P for several years.

      We are up 25% and this with the markets being down over the last 15 months. And I don’t sell short.

  9. Bill

    My rule of thumb is and I stick by it I start loading short three months prior to an outgoing administration as ( Like the Bush years and prior presidents ) they take the market with them for the grand reset for the new comers, something to consider when Gary speaks of a ( possible ) blow off top.

  10. Russell

    Yes, Gary sells his services, and what a shame it is, in a world of scarcity, someone would try to ensure their own well being…Sarcasm aside, three reasons to have a little trust in what Gary recommends:

    He lets critics comment as much as they wants, and regularly engages them, unlike others who delete comments from detractors.

    He takes a comprehensive view of markets, encompassing logic, fundementals, sentiment, and deviations from underlying patterns to find pattern shifts. You know he is never going to be married to just charts, or fundementals, or what the market “should” do, which is the failure of the vast majority of analysts. And you know he’s not a constant sector bug, as if every sector is going to crash tomorrow except for precious metals, which reminds me of a recent call by David Stockman, that oil will be in the teens and twenties for decades, in the days before the current rally started.

    He posts his own record, updates his portfolio in real time, and doesn’t “adjust” his record to make it seem as though he a prophet.

    I don’t feel any great need to stick up for him, but it’s pretty ridiculous people come in here and spout shit that verges on character judgment instead market analysis. And if you’re intent on constantly calling him wrong, at least say why, instead of the silly sniping that goes on. It amazes me that people are so confident in their own uniformed opinions…like there is nothing more to investing than the emotional response to recent chart or economic trends.

    1. catbird

      Wow, very well-said, Russell.

      Not taking a stand is the easiest thing in the world. It takes guts to stick out your neck and make a call.

      Some people think nonstop hedging and hemming and hawing and equivocating makes them sound smarter. There’s no shame in making a call and being wrong…as long as you have the flexibility to flip and go the other way.

      Isn’t flexibility and speed of adaptation and yes….DECISIVENESS…. essential for good trading? I guess some folks believe otherwise.

    2. Jay

      Good point on backing up either agreement or disagreement with Gary. I like to hear both, but only if the person puts logic or numbers behind it. I find Gary’s approach much more comprehensive than anyone else I’ve read, even when he’s wrong.

      And if he’s wrong, even from one day to the next, I like that he will reverse a trade immediately, as soon as he thinks his assessment was wrong, even if that means a loss for me. There is just no certainty in this stuff and if he’s correct >50% of the time, especially since he tends to focus on major trend changes, we can still make a bunch of dough.

  11. Duncan Smith

    Add the mac d and rsi to the daily chart, rsi same level as the November high, and the mac d turning down and about to crossover looking oversold. Also are you saying that because we have a daily hammer(with low volume) that is an indication that the S&P is about to rally, look back along the chart that you have posted how many examples of daily hammers can you see and how many breakouts? If I could make a guess from that one chart for future direction I would say sideways movement, similar to November 2015-Jan 2016 followed by another decline beginning June.

    1. Gary Post author

      I outline in the weekend report what needs to happen next week to indicate a runaway move is starting. Otherwise we will still be on track to drop into a normal daily cycle low.

      I guarantee the larger intermediate cycle has not topped though.

      1. tulip

        what is the time span for a larger intermediate…??as compared w an intermediate….???
        what is long term…???
        Thank you

  12. Don

    Gary, XTN, which is a broad based transportation ETF comprised of 45 companies (none more than 3% of the total). It recently popped above it’s declining 200 DMA which, thus far, is showing no signs of turning up. What is odd is that it’s most bottom, on January 20, was accompanied with below average volume. The days before or after did not show any appreciable rise in volume. IYT is another transportation ETF with 22 holdings (Fedex comprising 12.75% of total) and it shows a similar low volume bottom. Unusual.

    It is noteworthy that despite the powerful rally off the January 20 low, neither of these ETFs have exceeded their intermediate highs back in November. In a nut shell, we so far, we still have a pattern of declining highs and lows. If they were to exceed those highs of November, then I would be more inclined to believe we are on a new and sustainable bull run up to new highs.

    1. Gary Post author

      Yes one can wait for confirmation, but of course by the time that happens you’ve missed most of the move and it’s usually time for a correction. I try to anticipate the moves before they happen so we can make money off them instead of sitting on the sidelines and watching the move pass you by.

      Most of the analysts over at Kereport fall under this category. They are too worried about missing a call to take a stand so they always miss these intermediate turning points.

      1. Richard

        Very true. Especially with option trading. One must use the best approach to buy or sell in anticipation of the move.

  13. Duncan Smith

    I agree insulting Gary is wrong and unnecessary, but i there needs to be a distinction made between insults and different views on the market. I don’t see anything wrong with stating a different viewpoint. Trouble is insults are thrown back, …Dumb money…perma bears and so on, adding to childish too and fro arguments. Then there the sensational statements ie ….”folks we have 0 chance of the economy rolling over into recession”, other analysts eloquently state why that isn;t the case. Of course they are only stating possibilities, no one can predict the future, stating that you can is insanity, isn’t it?

  14. Alexandru Popovici

    Victor, I just saw ur post.
    Thank you for letting me know about something you see interesting!
    Pls give me the link.
    I dont know who Sid is.

      1. Gary Post author

        Remember charts are just a representation of what has already happened. We use recency bias to project the past into the future.

        Again this is why chartists never catch these big turns. You need different tools. You need cycles and sentiment.

  15. Alexandru Popovici

    Gary, stock market does not go into bear mood when recession occurs, rather it does on signs of extended overheating, while the economy is still booming and RECESSION NOT TO BE SEEN IN ANY FUNDAMENTAL REPORT and when the reports you mention do show overheating.

    And we do have signs of overheating –> FED will defintately increase its rate in 1 months and will continue doing so as long as stock market shows resilience.
    At the same time smart money expect that and that’s the very reason why this rise should be taken with a grain of salt and TAKE BUBBLE IN STOCKS OUT OF discusion.

    1. Gary Post author

      Smart money is massively long via the COT reports. If you want to follow the big money then you need to get positioned long.

    2. Richard

      Agree Alex. What is the premise for the bubble phase? The average person is not going to join in like back in 2000. Central banks decide to buy more stocks?
      Gary already notes that the COT indicators are showing maximum longs, so that would tell me that everyone is already invested. One must be careful looking at these reports because, while they are good, one does not know the setup that the trader has. These reports are not as powerful as they were decades ago, since setups differ so much.

  16. victor

    Guys, my wife said (she’s always right b the w ) we are not going to see runaway stocks and not go into recession this year but going to have the last opportunity to buy cheep commodities to be comfortable with coming inflation…… (she’s 54 but still is my beautiful witch… ( :

    1. Bill

      Cheers Victor, been married 25 years this year myself, and I still love my wife, my friend, my confidant like I met her yesterday…I’m 49 she is 46

      God Bless and a Happy Easter to you….

      1. victor

        wow, understand you so well Bill, we are 36 (married at 22) yrs together and it still like yesterday … can’t wait to see her at the end of the day…, I think it’s a good example for our grandkids who love to come to us…
        God Blessings and Happy sunshine Easter to you too…
        and Happy Easter to Everybody !!!

        1. Bill

          I have three grand children as well, grandson Xaybriel, two grand daughters Aviana, and Elizabella,… I live each day through them.

          We are blessed, the making money part is sport to me, you win some you lose some , but a grand child’s love is priceless.

  17. Russell

    Perms bear is an apt term for some people. Peter Schiff is a good example. I love the guy, but over the past five years, he was bearish in the US stock market as it gained 300%. He was bullish in gold stocks as they lost 80%. He was bullish in emerging markets as they lost 60%. He was bearish on the dollar as it gained 40%. Yes, he makes money over the very long term, but being constantly bearish western markets only works if it is only our politicians with ridiculous policies. The government’s of the entire world are rediculous, so in a game of who will be the most rediculous, there is room to occasional be bullish western markets. Saying someone is a permabear isn’t so much an insult as it is an accurate representation of someone who applies regional political bias to markets. It would be nice if the political establishment fell on their faces, but if Rome took 600 years to fall, I’m going to diversify enough to compensate for the potential that the western world is not going to collapse.

    Yes, saying there is zero chance of us rolling over into a recession is quiet a statement, maybe saying it is highly unlikely would be a better way to put it, but when every recession of modern times followed a period of significant monetary tightening, and every bubble followed a period of easing, one just has to guess what the government response is going to be. The Fed has yet to tighten, like they did before 2008. Until they do, there is no recession. Saying as much isn’t so much as proselytizing as it is comparing our current situation to past ones. If you can answer, do governments have the tools to increase the velocity of money printing, and will they print more money, then you have you answer on the direction of prices of assets and the time preference of money. Imagine what the monetary response would be if we actually entered into a recession.

    1. Gary Post author

      For the last 40 years there is a clear pattern that leads to recession. Energy has to spike at least 100% or more in a year or less. Every recession since 1974 has followed this pattern. Clearly that has not happened.

      1. TraderCee

        That cannot be a hard and fast rule therefore (that oil must spike 100% to induce a recession) since there are innumerable cases prior to the 1970’s where the link is broken. In any event the world is globalized. Outside of the US there have been severe recessions and economic downturns where the price of oil was in decline. That is the case right now as well. So your view is US-centric at best. Look what happened during the Asian Financial Crisis as an example. The effects of that did induce a US recession although it followed several years later on the heels of the meltdown over there as a result of policy that inflated markets and created unexpected distortions.

        1. Gary Post author

          Hmmm the Asian crisis occurred in 98. There was no recession in 98.The recession occurred in 01 & 02 and followed after a big spike in the price of oil.

          1. TraderCee

            The Asian Financial Crisis was in 1997 Gary. It was as a result of the AFC that oil prices crashed in the following years as demand slumped and capital flows from Developed Economies into Asia dropped due to heightened fears of risk. There was a clear cause and effect relationship between the events of 1997 and our domestic recession though. So my point is just that there is an interconnectedness between markets that cannot be overlooked. You are thinking in a linear way when you write that 98 saw no recession and thus you are correct. What came first was a steep decline in global oil prices and when they recovered we saw our recession. A lag effect in other words. Lets put this another way. Would you not agree that oil has seen a steep sell off since mid 2014? If you agree with that then I wonder what gives you so much confidence there cannot be a recession coming if oil prices are now in recovering. If we both agree that it was rising oil prices that led us into recessions during the past 30 years then should we not be wary that rising oil prices are again threatening to tip the US down? Possibly even this year? Hopefully you are not going to answer by saying that oil is being artificially suppressed to keep the US afloat and that the Fed and the Bankers are behind it all. But I suspect you might hold that viewpoint.

  18. jacob 2

    FWIW: Becoming a consistently profitable trader is a process of trial and error that must be unique to only you. It takes three to five years to figure out what your edge will be … and then a lifetime of refinement, managing emotions, developing discipline and patience and adopting a trading approach that is consistent with who and what you are. I think Mr. Savage has figured out his style and I pay attention.

  19. Alexandru Popovici

    Victor, thank you for your link!
    I remember you showed me a prior link of Sid’d; now I know who Sid is.

    Yeap, your wife is right, I guess, Victor. It is great to play inflation – as you know I’m also playing the best of, the mother of all commodities: LAND 🙂

    PS: I think Sid is too pessimistic. Just my opinion. He extrapolates prior stock market events via EW but the Great Depression occurded because of a monetary policy flaw: FED HAD NO POWER IN THE BEGINNING THIRTIES AND THE GREAT DEPRESSION ENDED WITH THE MONEY PRINTING (as a primary medicine besides public spending) OF ROOSELVELT’S “NEW DEAL”.
    Now a deflationary event so big cannot happen with THE CURRENT POWERS FED ENJOYS!
    So, i agree with the idea we have the FED behind us as stock traders via potentially unlimited QE programs (to choke any deflation) but not to the DELUSIONAL EXTENT OF CONSIDERING THERE IS A PPT TEAM INTERVENING IN THE MARKET AT ALL TIMES WITH FED’S MONEY.

    1. Macman

      Sorry Alexandru but the great dereassion ended because of WW11, The New Deal Just helped more people but did not end the depression!!

      1. Gary Post author

        Actually the Great depression didn’t end until after the War. There was massive inflation during the war and it wasn’t until two new industries came into being, plastics and electronics that the world pulled itself out of the depression.

  20. Enoch

    Gary I know you stressed the massive volume on LABU so something has to be up. but can you tell me if that is because of the forward split? did forward split ever happen with LABU a couple of months back? I did not follow this sector until recently so I am unsure if the reason for the massive volume was because of the share being split

    1. Gary Post author

      What I look for is a SUDDEN surge in volume. That sudden big spike tells me something changed on that day or week and big money is now accumulating.

  21. barney

    IMO –
    We are in a SM bull market that has just had a sever correction. SM, Gold and Oil have all made lows for year. Probability favours new highs for SM this year, volatile Gold, but ending the year higher and oil at $45 mid summer and $60 before end of year.

    SM correction due. Given all that I have a totally different strategy from Gary at the moment.

    Still 3x short gold and dust, 100% loaded.

    Now loaded 75% 3x short S&P and Dow (also just to wind up Gary – I’m short 5x FTSE 100)
    loaded 75% 3x short VIX

    95% long term stocks to hold. went cash with 5% to pick up same stocks later at discount.

    I did pick up NUGT at the gold bottom but Gary far superior at picking the bottom and the top.

    I’m interested in how all this pans out – its like a science experiment.


  22. joel

    Would appreciate your comments on today’s COT Report with respect to gold and silver for the near term.

    1. Gary Post author

      The latest COT has the commercials short 327,000 contracts. As you might remember months ago when I kept warning the bears it was too early to short gold, that it almost always takes at least 300,000 contracts short before an intermediate cycle tops. I also noted that in bull markets it can require 350,000 contracts short before the intermediate cycle tops. Well we almost get to 350,000.

      On the other hand the combined stock index contracts are still positive by 25 billion.So I’m going to say the same thing. It almost always requires the combined contracts to reach low single digits or even negative numbers before the intermediate cycle tops. So I’ll warn the bears again. It’s too early to start shorting stocks. There is almost no chance that the larger intermediate cycle has topped yet.

      If you are a short term trader you might catch a 2-3 day pullback but the risk is that a runaway move could start and you are about to get caught in it.

      Going short against every central banks printing press in the world is crazy IMO.

      1. Stevie

        Gary, that’s wrong.

        Europe and Japan has been in a clear downtrend over the past 2 years. To say fighting the central bank is a losing trade is simply not stating the facts.

        1. Gary Post author

          I don’t know how many different ways to say the same thing. Yes global markets have been in a down trend as they drop into the 7 YCL. I was the one telling you this would happen last year once the Nasdaq finished testing the all-time highs.

          Now I’m saying that I think the 7 YCL is probably over. All-the signs are there that the markets are starting a new 7 YC and will trend higher for at least 2-3 years.

          The commercials are heavily long. Emotional retail traders are heavily short. Sentiment is still too bearish despite the market having rallied significantly back above 2000. During bear markets sentiment should stay bullish, not turn bearish.

  23. Alexandru Popovici

    Gary, Richard, there is one more aspect one should consider upon looking into COT of stocks and treasuries : how does one really define commercials vs large speculators ??!!
    this is an impossible mission for these 2 categories.

    it is one thing to be a commercial in crude oil like EXXON or in cocoa like Kraft or in gold like Barrick and a totally different to say whether a certain fund is indeed a 100% commercial or…rather not in treasuries and stocks.

    1. Gary Post author

      When an individual reportable trader is identified to the Commission, the trader is classified either as “commercial” or “non-commercial.” All of a trader’s reported futures positions in a commodity are classified as commercial if the trader uses futures contracts in that particular commodity for hedging as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.3(z), 17 CFR 1.3(z). A trading entity generally gets classified as a “commercial” trader by filing a statement with the Commission, on CFTC Form 40: Statement of Reporting Trader, that it is commercially “…engaged in business activities hedged by the use of the futures or option markets.” To ensure that traders are classified with accuracy and consistency, Commission staff may exercise judgment in re-classifying a trader if it has additional information about the trader’s use of the markets. A trader may be classified as a commercial trader in some commodities and as a non-commercial trader in other commodities. A single trading entity cannot be classified as both a commercial and non-commercial trader in the same commodity. Nonetheless, a multi-functional organization that has more than one trading entity may have each trading entity classified separately in a commodity. For example, a financial organization trading in financial futures may have a banking entity whose positions are classified as commercial and have a separate money-management entity whose positions are classified as non-commercial.

      1. Alexandru Popovici

        thank you, Gary!
        the intention of CFTC to pur things right in their right boxes is to be appreciated but there is a road to be taken from theoretical, bureaucratical intention down to reality.
        In the case of KRAFT FOODS things are clear-cut: commercial in cocoa, coffee, wheat, corn you name it.
        But the CEO of a fund saying “hey this trading unit is commercial in stocks but those arround the corner now are not commercial but they were 2 weeks ago, trust me!” is omething hard to digest I bet there is a lot of slippage from reality – as to stocks and treasuries are concerned not other futures contracts.

        1. Gary Post author

          Instead of trying to nit pick if someone belongs in the right category or not just look at history. As a whole the commercials are almost always on the right side of the market. Why? Because they are the market for the most part.

          So it’s usually safer to follow behind that train than stand on the tracks in front of it.

          1. TraderCee

            You do know that the Commercials have been net short gold for the past 15 years, I presume? In other words they were short during the entire bull market up to its peak in 2011 and are still short.

          2. Gary Post author

            Yes the commercials are almost always net short as they use the futures to hedge production. What one needs to look at is the total short position. That’s where the Blees rating comes in along with the total commercial short position.

            As trader after trader tried to short the baby bull I kept saying wait till the commercial short position moves above 300,000 contracts before shorting. Almost no intermediate rally ever tops until the commercials really pile on the shorts.

            And surprise surprise the rally continued just like I warned until the short position reached 324,000 contracts this week.

            If traders had just listened to me and done a little due diligence they could have saved themselves losses on the short side by just exercising some patience.

          3. TraderCee

            I agree with you there. People are far too impatient both on the long side and the short and constantly suffer mistiming the market. Sometimes its better to just sit and wait.

      2. Stevie

        How does one know what their mom future position is? No one knows. If trading off of the COT works with a greater than 50% posibility, then everyone would be rich keying off of free data.

        1. Gary Post author

          Since it does work almost always one has to wonder why folks do trade against them.

          Some of it may just be that small traders are usually more short term traders (some would say over traders) so they miss the big picture. As an example let’s say stocks drop for the next 5-7 days into a DCL. A small trader might say “see I told you the COT reports don’t work”.

          Then then next two months the market gains 10%.

          So in that case who’s right and who’s wrong?

          In the short term maybe you did make some money by betting against them. But in the long term you got run over trying to stand on the tracks in front of them.

  24. Stevie

    Unless I’m reading this wrong, Gary is essentially guaranteeing the 7 year cycle is in and market should explode to the upside.
    Anyone that has traded Or invested in anyways for an extended period of time knows such claims are deceitful and potentially downright dangerous. He’s selling to the weak. I’ve known people in the past that has subscribed to Gary and lost a small fortune.

    Keep in mind folks, he sells a newsletter service. Unpopular calls is what sells in this business.

    1. Gary Post author

      I’m am making a call. I’m not hedging my bet like 99% of the newsletter writers out there. I’m going to give it to you straight here at the SMT. You can take the info I give you (and it’s a lot for a free blog) and make your own decision. If you disagree with me then bet the other way. Many did when it came to gold two months ago and stocks and oil 5 weeks ago.

      But then again that’s what makes a market. Some one has to win and some one has to lose. Most of the time the losers are the small guys whose only tools are some charting software and some indicators.

      If there is nothing else you ever listen to me about take this one piece of advice and get a subscription to so you can track actual sentiment levels rather than try to extrapolate them from a couple of articles you read on the internet.

      1. Bud Fox

        My question is if it is not the 7 year cycle low, and lower lows are in the future, will you be willing to say you were wrong?

        1. Gary Post author

          Sure I will be early. I was early in oil also. It just means I’ll try again at the next bottom. Hopefully we will still make some good money off the move in the meantime and get out in time to avoid the move down.

          That’s what we did in July of last year with metals. It wasn’t the final bottom like I had hoped but we did make money off the move.

          I will be watching sentiment and the COT reports to tell me when we need to take profits and get back on the sidelines.

      2. Au79

        Good advice Gary, I’ve been with Sentimentrader for the past 5 years. The only paid service I use.

    2. Macman

      Stevie, it is so obvious u are here for one purpose and one purpose only, to try to discredit Gary. You have no credibility, your motive is obvious and u r pathetic!!! Go away!!!!!

  25. Alexandru Popovici

    Stevie, I dont know about subscriptions but I agree the 7YCL has yet to be charted.
    NYSE and SPX will go slightly higher in April to complete the bull trap and to confirm we are in a new yearly cycle, that February hosted an YCL but not the 7-YCL.

    I expect that this new YC in stocks to be left translated and also shortened –> 7-YCL to be charted in autumn!

    1. victor

      Thanks Alex, exactly what I’m expecting…, hopefully I will short SPX next week or so…

      1. Gary Post author

        Again I would urge patience before trying to short (if you insist on using this strategy) . Wait for the COT levels to get bearish and sentiment to get extreme. As of today they are still very bullish and the ROBO ratio is still showing dumb money way too bearish for a lasting top to develop.

  26. Chris

    If you guys have been reading , Alex is saying US economy is heating. No it is not. Take the headline heating datas with a pinch of salt. ALex says risk of heating is FED hike. But really Alex, FED is back to its nonsense again. Talking rate hikes, but chickening out. They have hike once, and the likely course is no more hikes for the rest of the year. With other CB at -ve rates, US cant hike anymore. FED will be back to NATO, no action, talk only

    1. Gary Post author

      Exactly. How many times have I warned that the PPT is propping up the markets and trying to soften the effect of the 7 YCL? They halted the last daily cycle on day 16.

      No natural cycle in history has ever bottomed on day 16.

      This is why I keep stressing that it is dangerous to short stocks. The powers that be have demonstrated they can turn the markets almost at will. Why in the world would someone want to stand in stand in front of a power like that?

      1. Bud Fox

        Global markets are much larger than the US market.
        I expect the US market to gravitate back to the All World Index trend.

  27. Shankar

    Hi Gary thanks for all your great views on the market. I saw yesterday that the GDP print and what was interesting was that corporate profits are down consecutively
    If that’s the case and companies are not making money as much as before then will that b a headwind for the market to still go up
    Another point from the GDP report was that manufacturers are suffering due to the strong US dollar.

    So if US dollar strength continues then is that a double whammy of what’s going on as seen from the GDP report

Comments are closed.