A dollar panic next week is a possibility.
The intermediate and daily dollar cycle are both getting very long in the tooth. I expect both will bottom next week. Remember a couple months ago when everyone was expecting a rally to 100-120?
The upcoming rally in the dollar will not make new highs and I’m pretty confident the cyclical bull market in the dollar is over.
If the October support around 94 breaks, we should get a final bloodbath phase to turn everyone bearish and setup the next multi-week rally.
A panic in the currency market (should) be the opportunity for stocks to finish the drop into its daily cycle low. This, in turn, would clear the overbought conditions and bullish sentiment and set up the next leg of the rally to test the all-time highs.
Again, I’m going to advice against shorting the market. There is no guarantee the PPT won’t step in next week and prevent the rest of the drop into the daily cycle low (DCL).
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Do you expect biotech to hold strong or break below recent breakout zone 270/ibb?
Absolutely. The monthly chart of biotech looks great with huge upside potential in the years ahead.
Sorry! Did not get it. So you are expecting it to stay above breakout zone while spx making DCL?
I don’t know and don’t care about the next few days. By the end of the year I expect to test the all-time highs.
Gary;
The chart you show is the daily. Did you mean to show the monthly?
I’m seeing a monthly chart.
Good morning all. I hope the coming dollar rally/gold pullback doesn’t get too hairy since I’m holding everything for the next few years. I’m sure I’ll have to endure a few 20 or 30% drawdowns along the way with the names I’m in.
Now to focus on XBI for what’s left of investable funds.
The monthly oil chart looks as good as biotech. Yet all the clueless analysts are still stuck on the “fundamentals”. The fundamentals have already changed. The rig count is as low as it’s ever been in 40 years.
curious most bearish analyst mostly focus on oil’s over supply situation being the main reason why prices at this level are unsustainable. Would it be that low rig count does not impact oil prices until a later time? I suppose if this oil bull market is real, then it must be showing us the future situation as fundamentals could also be a lagging indicator and like you say, by the time everyone reverses and everything is bullish on oil, oil has already risen 100-200%
I like your approach Gary in trying to get in on the market turn based on cycles to try and stay ahead of the game.
I know you do not care about EW counts, but I find EW counts as a great guide once you determined a direction which makes the prediction even more convincing. And if your ICL or top happens at the end of an EW structure that paints a pretty deadly reversal. it would improve or refine your entry and exit ontop of your cycle turn events.
Hi all, Thur, I adv Shorts to close as FRI was going to be a up day as posted at close April 7 as we closed above 2035 and Also closed under 2045 so we’re in a trading zone…..
My trade will be long April into April 15 OpEX
Short into Aprill 22
Not in stone but for day.week Trades….
I know some don’t agree with TA but TA used with seasonality,, trend cycles, sentiment can get you 60-75% of a wining trade…..
Long bio, and watching the CRB as well as commoditys in general look good long term.
I would also like to add and remind those playing LABU it’s a 3x fund it will make you smile it will make you quiver and it will make you toss your lunch , don’t get too excited with a meager 2 or 3% daily swings down in fact you should be relieved that all it dips since the pop of March 29th . LABU is trading exactly how it should be trading, and well within its channel . Also take a look at HZNP …
Good trading
I am Old Turkey on my gold and silver juniors. Still holding LABU and am buying some zinc juniors which are very cheap right now.
Mike, no worries, bought a big stake of physical Gokd, at 1600 CDN per/on and stored in a bank…. Down large. funny thing as soon as I bought, a short latter….. BAM, down we went….
Bank Storage as well costs me…..
It will come back…. Few years….
Take care
Joe get a safe and take possession… Floor safes are nice as well. You know the old saying you own nothing unless it’s in your hand .
I agree that the dollar has some more downside yet but the stock market looks far more interesting for potential profit. I expect that the DCL will be at a much lower level than what most are expecting. I am guessing under 1600 for the S&P. The monthly RSI still doesn’t look very healthy, despite the massive rally off the Feb lows.
Still long physical silver and gold miners although I did trim that position somewhat. Shorting TLT as it rises. Being bearish the market and bonds may seem contradictory but I have seem them go down together and I believe we will soon see one of those times.
Just remember Don the Fed has something up their skeaves come Monday so it should be interesting to see which way we swing. Also I would like to take this opportunity to publicly apologize for the child like bickering in the prior thread Don, I’m here to make friends, money and share ideas, with that have a good evening .
Don,
It’s way too late in the daily cycle for the S&P to drop to 1600. The DCL is due any day as we will be on day 39 come Monday. The average length is 35-45 days.
Also this daily cycle was extremely right translated. That bodes well for higher highs during the second daily cycle.
It is going to be very interesting to see how it all plays out.
Gary, of course, you are correct. I was looking at the monthly chart. I don’t what I was thinking when I made reference to a DCL.
Interesting piece of info:
“The reality is this. Central bank polices consisting of QE’s and negative/artificially low
interest rates must successfully reflate global economies or else. They are running out of
time. To me, in the U.S. for instance, that means nominal GDP growth rates of 4-5% by
2017 – or else. They are now at 3.0%. In Euroland 2-3% – or else. In Japan 1-2% – or
else. In China 5-6% – or else. Or else what? Or else markets and the capitalistic business
models based upon them and priced for them will begin to go south.”
Gary,
How would this potential USD panic affect gold price?