Gold is in the final phase of the baby bull rally. This is the stage that causes maximum pain for shorts that were unable to recognize that the bear market is over, or tried to sell short (I warned and warned traders not to short a baby bull).

This is also the stage that causes maximum anxiety for longs who aren’t in the market. This is the time when the bull tries to get as many traders as possible to panic in at the top so as to catch them in the first reaction.

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34 thoughts on “WHAT’S GOING ON WITH GOLD?

  1. Steffmeister

    You got the runaway move in Gold and Silver instead Gary 🙂 however I was too early with my inversion call, if this continues into next week we might have an inversion, but the higher probability is a breakdown coming into May, both for Spx and precious metals.

    1. Gary Post author

      I don’t think you understand the definition of a runaway/creeper move. Nothing about the metals is consistent with a runaway move. The S&P however is showing the characteristics of a runaway if the correction stops at 40-50 points.

      1. Steffmeister

        Short term no, mid term 1450-1550 mid-nov 2017, then a deflationary crash and sub 1000, late 2018-early 2019.

        Thats what the wave structure indicates.

  2. Steffmeister

    Hmmm, lets see how it unfolds Ladies&Gentlemen, clearly no runaway move here yet. I guess the PPT went out for dinner a little bit too early. How will this affect Biotech?

    May is going to be interesting imo!

    April 28, 2016 at 4:05 am
    Nice to see you adopting to my analysis haha, there is a risk/opportunity that Spx will correct -20% before end of October imo

    Gary Post author
    April 28, 2016 at 6:38 am
    Not a chance. And don’t do something stupid like trying to short the stock market. This is a rigged game and the PPT can come in at any time and prevent a DCL from completing.

    If we get a correction then use it to buy, but for heavens sake don’t fight the PPT and try to short the stock market.

  3. Surf City

    Sure looks like day 4 of a new Daily Cycle or Trading Cycle to me. If so, you could easily have 10-15 days of more upside action in Gold and the Miners before this Daily Cycle turns down. Is seems to me that the “surprises” to the downside have been in the USD with Gold and the Miners having very mild corrections thus far.

    This may change if the ICL is still ahead of us (Very Possible) but upside remains especially with the USD just failing on day 12.

  4. Ralph Wiederzane

    Good video, about the only thing longs like myself have to hang our hat on at the moment is the trend is up, and there are still lots on the sidelines that sold expecting a correction. It probably means we go a little higher first, but sharp pull backs always show up sooner or later. I use GDX as a proxy, and if it goes straight to 26+ I will do some trimming maybe sell as much as half my holdings while keeping the rest for long term. It has come too far too fast, in my opinion.

  5. Gary Post author

    The dollar has broken the support I mentioned in the video. The bloodbath phase has begun. Today is day 1. They usually last 5-7 days.

    So this should be the period where the baby bull completely destorys the bears and finally panics every last retail trader into the market before the intermediate cycle tops.

    This is the time when smart money will be unloading their shares to the bag holder retail traders in preparation for the intermediate decline into June.

    1. Ralph Wiederzane

      Haha, I get to be the smart money for once? 🙂

      I’m not currently in the US, but wonder if any of the recent action can be attributed to Trump apparently kicking ass? Some think a Trump victory would cause turmoil in the markets, or maybe that is just a scare tactic from those already in power, the same people that have the ability to wreak havoc in financial markets. It’s interesting to watch from afar, but if that is the catalyst perhaps this action could continue several more months until elections?

      I’m referring to stuff like this http://www.dangerandplay.com/2016/04/28/mike-cernovich-from-trump-rally-to-trump-riot-i-was-there/

  6. bill

    Let the make pain come I am loading up on DUST and when the water fall comes it will come hard… I have nothing but time and DUST at a $1.50 is a no brainier just like it was GDX at $12 bucks was a no brainier…

  7. Gary Post author

    Today should tell us whether the S&P is in a runaway move or not. It’s right at the 40 point limit. I’ll give it another 10 points leeway but if the correction goes deeper than that then the runaway move comes off the table and we go back to normal cycle rhythms.

    As I’ve said before I would prefer not to have a runaway move. They are too hard to determine when the top is due and they tend to crash after a top forms.

      1. muskie032

        Looks like big resistance right where it ended today. All depends on what the gold price does. We are absolutely in the euphoric faze, this could definitely be a top for many months at this rate.

  8. Surf City

    Gold now over the 1287 mark so this sure looks like a new Intermediate Cycle as well. March 28th would have been the Consolidation ICL under that scenario. Gold is headed for 1400+ by June.

    1. Gary Post author

      Nope still the same IC. Look at the miners and silver for confirmation. Neither has had anything resembling an ICL. The metals are doing exactly what I’m telling you they are doing. You can either hold Old Turkey or you have to be smart enough to recognize an intermediate top and get out in time.

  9. RubyBlue

    Gary –

    Is it possible that what we are presently seeing is $HUI “echo-ing” what occurred at the trendline breakout beginning in 2002 – when the $HUI rose from the breakout point 227% over 6 months before consolidating? That would imply a target of appx. $327 for $HUI in July.

    1. Surf City

      RubyBlue, You are onto something. This is real “Run Away Move” that will leave most behind but it is in the PM Sector. My analysis shows that we have potentially had a time based sideways consolidation ICL. I say this as this move has the feel of a new IC here as I can’t recall another period where Gold and the Miners made this bullish of a move this late in the Intermediate Cycle.

      Here are some of my links on Gold and the Miner cycles showing that the break out of the Pendant would be pivotal from an IC perspective.



      1. Gary Post author

        I would strongly urge you not to get suckered into this kind of thinking. There is no such thing as a sideways ICL. You can go back 16 years and every single ICL is clearly visisble on a long term chart. ICL’s have to reverse sentiment back to bearish levels. That’s what generates the fuel for the next leg up. If everyone is bullish there is no one left to buy.

        Remember the further the rubber band stretches in one direction the harder it snaps back when the trend reverses. As of today GDXJ is now stretched 72% above the 200 day moving average.

        I’m going to guarantee that the ICL will be so devastating that by June no one will be able to pull the trigger.

        I’m going to tell you “I told you so” just like I did the bears that didn’t believe me back in January.

  10. Gary Post author

    Patience here folks. Stocks should complete their DCL about the same time the dollar completes its ICL. We took profits on all stock positions a couple of days ago and are now waiting for a swing before going back in.

    Thankfully after today the runaway move is off the table.

    This is just a normal profit taking event. Once it’s finished then the bears will get kicked in the teeth again as the market has a date with the all-time highs during this intermediate cycle.

    1. Gary Post author

      I haven’t checked this week yet, but as of last week they weren’t anywhere close to levels that would trigger an intermediate top.

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