NO BEAR MARKET. $SPX (S&P 500 Large Cap Index)
If you try hard enough you can always find a set of moving averages that will confirm your bias. The 50/100 week exponential moving average cross has never generated a false signal in 36 years. It’s confirming what I’ve been saying all along. No bear market.
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Guys, I have said watch Semis. After its recent strength, I did some research. Easy. Just watch 2 trends. OLED & VR. These 2, especially OLED is going to dramatically change our lives. And we are in the early stages. Previously, the technology isnt going mainstream. But I bet they have figured out how. Look at how AMAT was doing last Friday. It’s forward guidance blew all away. And AMAT provides the equipment to OLED.
Your handphone, cars, windows, displays, TV , healthcare, buildings etc are going to be so much different with OLED. The possibilities are limitless.
I would agree. Semis are very economically sensitive. If they are rising then there is no chance of a recession.
Not only are the 50 & 100 Exponential averages not signalling a bear market yet, when both averages are rising it has been a fairly consistent buy signal.
Here are weekend posts by Northy and Ciovacco that offer a deeper analysis on where the stock market stands. The Bull in stocks is questionable at best, so I find it strange that you have herded your Subs into stocks which are a mixed bag. Meanwhile the Gold Bull is no longer a question and yet you and your subs are sitting on the sidelines trying to Trade a Bull that you should be Riding.
I trade with different tools than pure technicians. That is how I catch these bottoms and these guys always miss them. If you want to forever be behind the curve then follow them. If you want to catch turns before they are already in the rear view mirror then you need to follow me.
In markets that aren’t trending you will lose money waiting for confirmation. By the time it comes the trend will be ready to reverse.
I instructed anyone who wanted to catch all of every rally to go Old Turkey months ago. There are lots of subs that are in and holding for the next 4-5 years.
I trade using a wide combination of tools, including Cycles, TA, Price Channels and Stage 4 analysis. ALL my tools indicate its time to Ride the Gold Bull and Trade the Stock Bear.
I also use a bit on Gann Cycles as well. As 7 is an important Gann number I find it instructive to look at Gold’s move out of the 2009 low where the pullbacks were mild. Check out that 2009 chart in my link below.
So far, my hybrid tool approach has been working great. 😉
If that’s the case then why in the world did you exit your metals trade the other day? All you did was move the trade back into an earned income tax bracket . That’s the whole reason for going Old Turkey and you ruined it.
Gary, As I mentioned, I have Hybrid strategy. My Core positions are in small miners that are being held Old Turkey as you call it (20% of capital). Larger, more liquid positions like NEM, AEM, GDX, etc. are traded on Cycle swings with nice gains as well. If we move up from here and break the downtrend line, that will signal a new Daily Cycle and I will buy my trading positions back.
Good Trading to all.
Core positions are in Spock’s Rocks. No need to sell these puppies as they are popping like popcorn. This guy is good. Very, very good, IMO.
I have the same hybrid strategy as Surf. I hold my micro cap miners Old Turkey and trade GDX, GDXJ and options. I have bids in on several small miners but I am not chasing anything here either. It is hard to buy a stock for 50 cents today when I bought the same stock for 10 cents in Dec/Jan, even though I believe the 50 cent stock has a fair value of $2 plus.
Unfortunately I am a Canadian and get no tax breaks for holding Old Turkey.
Spock was bullish at the bottom so he is a guy I listen to. I don’t subscribe as I have my own pick of “Trikes Rocks” which are up more than 300% from the bottom. Most of my rocks need to at least double to reach fair value. Some need to go up 500% or more before they reach fair value.
On April 30 I recommended a stock that was around 28 cents at the time. Today it is around 35 cents. Here is the link to the post that I recommended it.
If you are on the sidelines, this is the type of stock you should buy . It hasn’t taken off much and has an excellent deposit. The jurisdiction isn’t the greatest but the company has great relations with the locals. I have a position and have bids in, in case of any weakness.
Avnel Gold Mining
Throw in the kitchen sink too and you will really have a confused trading mish mash. What a sure way to lose. Surf is down.
Anthonyo, Thanks much for you insight but am having the single best trading year of my life. 😉
I’ve been “Loaded to the Gills” on PM Stocks out of the bear bottom and only recently took profits on my Trading Positions. Spock’s Rocks form the base of my core Old Turkey position which is Rockin and Rollin. Everyone should have some % of of their portfolio dedicated to old turkey at the start of a Bull, IMO.
I do mean everyone, if you have half a clue… :two_cents:
Thanks for your comments and insights on stocks and metals/miners.
Ciovacco is a financial IDIOT, a hot head, and a depressed perma-bear; he is always and has been for a long time dead wrong. Greatcontrary indicator…..I feel sorry for people who read him, let alone listen to him.
Why you post here if you don’t like the analysis?
Sorry but I have watched the Ciovacco weekly video on stock for years now. Part of my early Saturday morning routine with coffee. 😉 Lots of good TA and his system tracks 1000’s of technical indicators.
Ciovacco actually was ultra bullish on Stocks going into the Spring of 2015 when most Index’s topped in May. Only after Aug 2015 did he turn Bearish, along with his system..
Ciovacco is a financial IDIOT, a hot head, and a depressed perma-bear; he is always and has been for a long time dead wrong. Great contrary indicator…..I feel sorry for people who read him, let alone listen to him.
Why you post here if you don’t like the analysis?
I wonder if using a different browser might cure the volume problem that some are having. I record at max volume and I never have trouble hearing the videos on Google Chrome.
Interesting that Jason’s Sentiment Trader weekend report has Stocks at “High Risk” over the near term (over the next month). My Cycle Analysis shows the next IC Low in the SPX may take place in the late June to mid July timeframe.
Will it be a higher IC Low than Jan/Feb or a lower low? That is the key question.
As always, Time will Tell. 😉
I think it may last a bit longer than that. Even in normal times the intermediate cycle tends to run 22-25 weeks. But with global QE the cycle has been stretching as long as 30-40 weeks. Most IC’s have 3 daily cycles embedded within them. We are just now forming the bottom of the first daily cycle. There should be two more after this. And I expect a relief rally after the Brexit vote so we may not get the next ICL until Aug or even as far out as Oct.
Look at 2014 – 2015. The intermediate cycle lasted from Oct. to Aug.
Note that intermediate term risk is neutral in both stocks and oil. That’s where we are focused right now. In gold intermediate risk is high. That’s where we are on the sidelines right now waiting for the risk level to come back down. It will eventually. The bull has at least 4-5 years still to go.
Perhaps but we will know soon enough as most Bear Market Intermediate Cycles are left translated and fail. We can agree that the next month is a very critical clue on the stock markets longer direction used on which direction price breaks.
“direction used” should be” direction based” in my last sentence
We don’t care either way.
Gary — I assume you are waiting for confirmation of DCL in stocks before taking large positions, correct?
See the Friday update.
Crazy man Oscar with his longer term thoughts on Stocks and Gold
Gary, your pal Plunger has a new post. Gold going to $1475 and HUI going to 370.
Plunger is a pretty smart cookie and I wouldn’t bet against him.
This guy is approaching it philosophically not realistically; “known value” ? WTH is that? Is this a novel or an article on a comodity?…Vague and dreamy writing. He should write sci fi. Come on now nothing about this article is clear or makes sense. Buzz. Next!
I just looked Gary’s posts in January. Anthonyo was bearish as hell on gold and looking for 112 on USDX.
Plunger was bullish as hell and caught most of the rally.
Plunger was bearish on PM’s for the last several years and had a PO on the HUI at around 100 several years ago.
Plunger is a smart cookie, and Anthonyo is a fool!
A stock that I own, Excellon Resources has gone from 20 cents to over $1.20.
Here is proof that I owned it in this post.
I would like to see guys like Anthonyo, who crap over everybodys posts, to post links of their brilliant calls. Go back to Dec/Jan and look in the Archives. I was bullish as hell on gold. What about you, Anthonyo?
I dont look at USDX.
Mike trike is trite.
Plunge your brain off garbage articles.
Crap is in the article itself. No need for me to add any. LOL.
January 27, 2016 at 6:58 pm
USD index heading to 112 after hiccups.”
Maybe that was a different Anthonyo, lol.
Keep putting your foot in your mouth you fool, lol.
Mike, You da Man! 😉
Seriously Anthonyo, post a chart with some insight and analysis if you can. m;)
Plunger is a market historian par excellence. Don’t know anyone else who can touch him.
I expect they will go much further than that but I think there will be corrections along the way.
Relax, we know that gold is heading to $1500. It is so clear that it has to test the previous breakdown point. But issue is , we believe it is going down to 1200 ish again first. To test the 200dma, and do some fib retracements. Same for miners.
Look at the 10 and 20 month moving average, stretch it out. Another possible scenario.