It’s time for a short term bounce, but don’t be fooled, the intermediate degree correction isn’t done yet. Gold has to generate at least one failed and left translated daily cycle before the intermediate cycle low is complete.


  1. Surf City

    Gary, Here is a free post from LikesMoney on Gold from yesterday. His cycle analysis (and mine) shows that Gold just had a left translated failed Daily Cycle on day 22 and likely found a DCL on day 23. I think Poly over at the Financial Tap may have a similar count. So according to some Cycle Analysts, we already have the failed Daily Cycle you are looking for.

    Also on your video, you point to the late March Low as the last Gold DCL but that was 42 days ago and well outside the normal timing band for a Gold DCL at 23-29 days. Just saying you might want to double-check your cycle counts.

    1. Gary Post author

      This is why I’m the cycles expert and the others get these wrong more often than not. April 22nd could not have been a DCL because price didn’t break the cycle uptrend line.

      And for heavens sake why would anyone listen to Poly? He hasn’t gotten a cycle right in who knows how long.

      1. Surf City

        Gary, 42 days for Gold is a very long count in anyones book. Time and Price are both important in Cycles and I have posted on Gold and other assets in early Bull phases not breaking cycle trend lines (e.g. DOW 1982 Bull, USD and TLT in 2014-15, etc.)

        Also, you often mention TPTB are able to “paint the charts” with their HFT Algos. What if they are doing so to keep traders sidelined in the early stages of this bull?? I would not put it past them as this COT analysis shows many small specs are still on the sidelines…

        Perhaps that is TPTB’s plan.

  2. Surf City

    Here is my cycle analysis on Gold and the USD. What these two posts objectively show, is that Cycles are not always so clear cut as some might suspect. Different analysts can apply Bressert’s theory to the same chart and come up with different counts and probable outcomes. That’s what cycles give you is “probability.”

    As always, I will watch the charts using a number of different tools an react accordingly. Right now, however, I have reloaded on my Gold Miner Trading shares starting yesterday and today and given that I have a good entry point, I will be happy to take my profits earlier than expected if my chart work tells me to do so.

    Good trading to all.

    1. J

      Contrary to all the sheeps bashing you here Surf, I appreciate your opinion and TA on the markets and Gold. While I may not always agree or have a different approach to our view and I and really don’t have a good grasp of cycles I do respect the fact you do your own DD, form an opinion and post it up for all to see, which is more than 90% of the rest on here. Keep it up man, it always brings value, and I don’t see how others here always have to view a difference of opinion as “bashing” or “trolling”. I personally think gold has more downside , $1180 probably, break of that and the obvious supports come into play, keep doing your thing tho man.

      1. Surf City

        J, Thanks for your perspective. I do not have my own site as some imply but post on a number of open forums, including GoldTent. Bull & Bear Talk and SMT are Cycles sites which is one of my hybrid skills so I like to see what others think.

        Having differing views and analysis is healthy, IMO as the markets are never as clear cut as we often think. I will say that I often have several possible cycle counts and this keeps me on my toes in terms of validating which one is likely correct. Regarding the “Troll” tag, I try my best to be respectful and back up my posts with charts and potential fractals but you are correct that many who bash me here probably can’t create a chart let along post it. 😉

        As for Gary, he is a big boy who is very capable of defending his own analysis. He is very confident in his analysis and from what I have seen, he is capable of dishing it out to anyone who challenges him. For me, I enjoy the debate as it exposes me to the thinking of others along with the fact that I may well be wrong.

        1. J

          I agree, I like the differencing of opinion Gary and others, including you, have sometimes because it causes me to keep an open mind and and sometimes take a outside view of my position and analysis. One needs that occasionally to keep fluid.( Of course you have to be able to form your own opinion to begin with. lol) You’ve always been civil and decent in my opinion, in agreement or not, and that speaks volumes, and goes a long way in my book, and gary has always been pretty level headed and civil as well, until recent, but I think hes allowed some other sites and/or people to get under his skin. He didn’t used to get this way, although Ive never been a subscriber, Ive been reading and debating with Gary for many, many years now, long before it was even a subscription site and although recently hes come across as a bit egotistical, he really has always had a good ability to see the big picture of the market and conditions. Hes come along way from when he started SMT and only followed the COT, but hes always come across as a decent guy as well. Although he has always dismissed TA as crap and wouldn’t even consider drawing a trendline back then. Its his followers who are the average retail trader with the blinders on. . Again, I always appreciate your charts and links as a possible view of the markets I may or may not be seeing, whether we end up agreeing or not, that’s what makes a market anyway. I hope you continue to do so. Ive just started reading about cycles and hope to come to a better understanding about them and using them as another trading tool. Big Weinstein trend fan though as well.

      2. Anthonyo

        J off: YAWN. This coming from a person named “J” who spells the word sheep in plural as “sheeps”.
        Back to elementary school for you.

        1. J

          “Sheeps” – Sheep- sheeple- – Its a play on retards like you who don’t have the brain matter or intellectual skills to form your own opinion and who have to continually rely on others to tell you which way the market is going and how to invest the annual $50 savings bond Grandma gave you for your 40th birthday. Its probably still over your head but maybe run upstairs and ask your mom or her current “friend” to explain it to you. Its called ” a play on words” but im sure that’s way beyond your vernacular skills.

          AND …”J off” …. really?? hahaha, what are you like 12? and this may be over your head as well but J is the first letter of my name, no point in wasting my time on morons like you writing my whole name. And lastly, people named “Anthonyo” probably shouldn’t worry about others names. hahaha Now run along and get your nose back buried in garys a#*hole so when he farts you can be the first to get on here and tell everyone how wonderful it smells.

  3. Alexandru Popovici

    Surf, I concur with Gary that another failed DC is in.
    I filter that conclusion via USX’:
    – very right-translated structure in the current DC
    – advance in an EARLY YEARLY CYCLE and
    – Japan’s post elections and Brexit ensuing risk-off mood
    should all entail a higher high for the greenback until my birthday on June10 before rolling over (an YCH of the dollar on my birthday – a nice gift from Lady Market to me!).

    1. Surf City

      Alex, You and Gary may be correct on the USD and Gold and if so, I will gladly take my profits in a few days.

      Just using cycles and TA to do some swing trading with my trading shares. Also added this morning just now on the pullback. I am satisfied with my entries and will watch closely to see how this plays out.

  4. Alexandru Popovici

    Nice to see the dollar going down and stocks continuing their advance – it enforces the negative correlation btw the two.
    I hope to see stocks’ advance shallow during USX’ cyclical decline.
    50dma should prove strong resistance both for discretionaries and for Hang Seng whereas 200dma resistance for transports. On the other hand, their being shaken up vigorously is in the books before throwing stocks back into the abyss.

  5. chrisG

    The last 1.5 yrs is a consolidation , a 4th wave consolidation off the 2009 bull market. Now that spx and dow is knocking on the top end, it will breakout. Making a bubble phase 5th wave. There is time to be defensive, not now. Wait til 2017. I have said before, accidents happened on 7. 1987, 1997, 2007, so maybe 2017? Anyway, lets just enjoy this 5th wave. Semis going to lead. It is still far from ATH. woohoo

  6. Alexandru Popovici

    Chris, even if you and Gary are proven right that the low came in JAN/FEB (depending on index), before stocks are able to advance decisively higher they will take a deep dip first this summer.
    Consider the lead of USX’s advance in its fresh YC, rather than that of semicons or financials, alongside the ensuing risk-off mood ready to start.
    This dead-cat bounce in stocks is not the onset of the next leg up, it is the backstage maneuver of Lady Market to lure in bulls before a roller-coaster fall to begin shortly 😉

    1. Gary Post author

      The intermediate cycle low last year came at the end of Aug. and then a retest in Oct. So the likely timing for the next ICL is probably in Sept. – Oct. and it may come as a retest of the all-time highs after a breakout.

  7. Gary Post author

    I would also suggest keeping a very tight leash on any long metals postions here if you are going to try to short term trade a bounce. If the euro turns back down quickly then it could turn out that the reversal in gold was just an oversold bounce and not a final DCL. We’ve seen this happen many times in the last 4 years as the daily cycle has evolved and stretched in gold. It has become tough to spot cycle bottoms in modern markets because the daily cycles have typically had 1 – 3 false bottoms before the real DCL.

    This dip in the dollar looks very much like a half cycle low with another leg higher still to come. Potentially the top could occur next Friday on a good employment report.

    1. Alexandru Popovici

      good point, Gary. Thank you!
      on the other hand, USX’ dark cloud cover with confirmation today alongside a US GDP rep + Yellen speech tomorrow I think increase significantly the probability to have a DC decline underway.

      Stocks should also burst and exhaust their dead cat bounce thanks to tomorrow’s news.

      1. Gary Post author

        This is not a dead cat bounce… anymore than oil was forming a yearly cycle top last week.

        1. chrisG

          lol, exactly gary. When Alex said last week oil was cycle top, i also told him oil still have unfinished rally at $51.50 ish. I think could go to $53 ish . Before a $5-8 correction.

  8. chrisG

    Exactly, it could be a backtest of the highs. And for some good stocks, eg WB, OLED etc who knows by then, it could be 50% higher than current price. So, its better to long good growth stocks with good technicals too. Alex, a bull is a bull. Better to buy smaller pilot size too , to ride this bull. You are looking at trees ignoring the forest.

  9. Gary Post author

    Starting to look like I might be right about a half cycle low in the dollar. If so then gold probably won’t complete the DCL until next Friday.

  10. Robert

    So Gary,

    Why couldnt this be the ICL low here? Seems like a good bottom especially since miners didn’t drop as much as gold. Maybe we get the bounce but on the way down it stops at this same level or just marginally lower?

    1. Gary Post author

      It can’t be an ICL because gold hasn’t generated a failed daily cycle or broken the intermediate trend line yet.

  11. JetFuel


    You obsess over gold and the PMs on here, guaranteeing that the HUI reverts to 175 consolidation area, bloodbath beginning, few day bounce coming up…etc… But are you even trading it at all? Seems like a lot of postulating without having a dog in the fight other than justifying why you exited your long positions waaaaay too early. So what is your current trade in gold? I suspect you don’t have one.

    1. Gary Post author

      Why do we need to have a trade in gold? Cash is a perfectly acceptable position.

      And I have no idea why you think we exited too early. We made a huge profit on our last gold trade. Trying to catch every last penny is a fools game. Plunger and a few others are playing that game and all they are going to accomplish is to give back 5-6 weeks of gains.

      1. JetFuel

        Correct, you don’t need to have a trade in gold. In mid April you told everyone to wait for mean reversion, guaranteeing that the HUI would see 175 again as a retest. You should have just said “We are in a cash position and not re-entering the PM complex until HUI hits 175.” That would have been completely valid and it would constitute a trading plan. But you have gone on and on for the past 6 weeks scolding folks who are long gold instead of just abiding by your plan without theatrics.

        So this week you declare everything is going according to your plan as the HUI seeks a swing low. Possibly on the very day that the swing low is hit in the HUI you suggest to everyone that they need to start hedging PM positions (which none of your subscribers should even be in according to you). 2 days later you warn people that a bounce is imminent. Your messaging is schizo and not doing your subscribers any favors.

        1. Gary Post author

          Where should I start 🙂

          “guaranteeing that the HUI would see 175”

          I never guaranteed that the HUI would hit any specific number. Cycles are not used for projecting targets. You must have me confused with someone else. I said, and still say, that one doesn’t need to chase any gains during the second leg, those gains are not going to be sustainable and will be given back during the ICL.

          I’ve been as clear as a bell. We will reenter at the next ICL. I’ve also been clear as could be that the ICL isn’t due until around late June, or early July.

          I don’t know who you think I’ve been “scolding”. Heck I was the one who suggested an “Old Turkey” strategy months ago for anyone who needed to catch every last penny of the baby bull rally. Not everyone can ride out an intermediate cycle low though, so Old Turkey isn’t appropriate for everyone.

          Actually I placed hedges on May 2 as a guide for Old Turkey’s who might need help hanging on through an ICL. Check out what day May 2 was.

          I explained in the video why a bounce might be imminent. The euro had reached the intermediate trend line, and that could trigger a bounce, and possibly a DCL in gold. It will just be a short term dead cat bounce though. Again I was crystal clear on all of this in the video.

          Jeez I give you this info completely free. Understand that if you want real time trade alerts you need to get a subscription, so don’t expect to build a complete trading plan around the partial info I post here on the blog, especially if you somehow manage to misinterpret it.

          1. Robert

            Gary is the best gold analyst out their right now. Not everyone will be perfect but he has been spot on all of 2016.

  12. Don

    Incredibility, only five companies make up 10.6% of the weighting of the S&P 500. They are Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Google (2 share classes) and Facebook. Apple, Microsoft and Google are actually down, YTD, between 4.5 to 6.5% while the other two, Amazon and Facebook are up 5.7 and 14.1% respectively.

    During the last 30 days, Amazon has climbed nearly 16% and Facebook almost 10%, The Biotechs as represented by IBB is DOWN 2.75% with XBI up a mere .30%.

    It should be pretty clear what is driving the market and it sure isn’t the Biotechs, In my opinion, the current rally is running on fumes and if Amazon or Facebook falter, the S&P will take a substantial hit. If the market does manage to make new highs, I suspect it will be a short lived celebration.

    1. Gary Post author

      Like I keep saying: I prefer to get in at bottoms, not at tops. Look at this chart and you tell me when was the best time to enter.

    2. chrisG

      Blah, blah blah… I suspect short lived. Dont suspect, if its going up long. Do you know the 1999 bubble? It is mainly led by 4 stocks too. CSCO plus others that i couldnt recall.

      1. J

        Bullshit. The Nasdaq went from 600 to 5000 in four years and you think it was only four stocks? Were you alive then ? or old enough to trade? It was thousands of worthless stocks being bid up in manic speculation. Im not arguing the market today but the dot com,,, ? not even close to todays market. Countless, worthless companies ran that market up, and down even quicker.

  13. Robert

    Doesn’t look like that bounce is gonna happen again as Gary said. Gold getting hit hard and then GDP, Yellen tomorrow. Could be 1200 before you know. Holiday Monday they might even do the old nighttime flush, 1180 Tuesday

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