SMT update

SMT Portfolio Update

The stock portfolio is currently up 79% over the last 21 months. Handily outperforming the S&P which is only up 5.7% during that period.

The metal portfolio is up 127% over the last 21 months. Gold during this period is up 13.3%. The HUI is up 47%. We are significantly outperforming in this portfolio also.

The energy portfolio is down 16%. Oil during this period is down 14%. I still haven’t had any luck in the energy space yet.

The currency portfolio is up 8%. I don’t recommend anyone trade currencies even though we are still up in the portfolio. They are the most heavily manipulated markets on the planet.

And as of today the Quest portfolio is up 2400%. I’m hoping by next spring to have accomplished the goal and turned a $1000 initial stake into a $100,000 profit.

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17 thoughts on “SMT update

  1. Robert

    Gold already down overnight. Wonder if this is a repeat of couple weeks ago. Up 2-3 days then give back all gains?

  2. zkotpen


    I was wondering the same thing after Thursday’s close, albeit in different terms:

    Both gold & GDX daily charts look like classic flat corrections during the month of September.

    I’m going on record as stating that the current bull phase in gold & miners will not benefit the old turkey strategy — on the contrary, it will destroy it.

    Remember October 5, 2012?

  3. zkotpen

    PS: Just to be clear: You can swing trade the bull, maybe trade intermediate cycles in the bull, but old turkey will get crushed.

    1. Robert

      Interesting thought zkopten. I have been trading gold as im primarily a trader. I have tried to old turkey and so far it is too difficult as all these pops are just being slammed all the way back down. As of today Friday, it seems so far that we may give back all the gains in GDX. Maybe the retest of the 1370 level Gary has been talking about will not happen. We could have hit it yesterday and now continue down into the ICL.

  4. Gary Post author

    I’m on record stating that the currency market interventions are going to prolong the dollar decline and stretch out the daily cycle to unatural lengths. The ECB and BOJ are going to fight tooth and nail to try to keep their currencies suppressed against the dollar.

    1. duckwhorocks1

      I saw your remark before on the Burrito.

      The only bets we took were
      1) GDX does not exceed the $32 high for at least 12 months. It is nowhere near that
      2) USD/JPY goes to 110 before 90.

      You did call the short term rally in Gold and I suggested the Fed could raise rates. Gold is up $20 and GDX is up 2.5% total. Big whoop.

      The big money is still on the down side in GDX.

  5. Alexandru Popovici

    YELP – a crap company. Who said that last week ?

    Maybe that person was right and YELP is a crap company, I don’t know about it as a company, BUT …I did and do know that YELP MAKES A GREAT STOCK!

    Great company is not equal to great stock or the vice versa.

    1. victor

      do not pay attention on such comments Alex, your instinct sharpened with years, trust it but react fast on changes, that’s what you’r doing as I see it…

    1. Gary Post author

      After a 90% bear market one has to trade the long side and Old Turkey is virtually guaranteed to pay off big.

      Remember the bigger the bear the bigger the bull tat follows.

      The problem most traders have is they get sidetracked by the short term gyrations and they forget to look at the big picture.

  6. Alexandru Popovici

    Victor, thank you! That’s nice of you.
    I still have some 14% cash left. I will invest it in WB, Weibo, on Monday and Tuesday.

    Stocks should continue to correct on small volume in the first hour or so of trading on Monday before resuming to new highs.

    Good night and a great weekend to you and family!

  7. chrisG

    If after fomc could only produce such bounce for silver and miners, I think high odds that gdx and hui is going to test the 200 dma by the next month.

  8. Alexandru Popovici

    yes, Chris, I tend to agree w/ u.
    I have just closed my GDX position pre-market at 26.97 (taken at 26.12 also premarket as I wrote here on the FOMC day based on the exhausted upside action of USX) for the following reasons all of which indicate that miners are still in the same daily cycle:
    – GDX has not managed to break to higher ground (the cycle is still left-translated),
    – GDX is falling now pre-market right as USX is moving lower,
    – there I alternatives providing larger rew/risk ratios,

  9. Gary Post author

    I tend to think GDX tests the 30-31 zone when the dollar accelerates down into it’s DCL over the next two weeks. But after such a monster run this year, the miners will have to churn sideways for awhile before the next leg up.

    I don’t expect the next rally to really breakout until the spring.

Comments are closed.