Strictly Necessary Cookie should be enabled at all times so that we can save your preferences for cookie settings.
If you disable this cookie, we will not be able to save your preferences. This means that every time you visit this website you will need to enable or disable cookies again.
Gary, do you think the Chinese holiday played into this recent drubbing of precious metals? Holiday is over next week. China will be back to work Monday ( Sunday night in America). Will they start buying or will they dump as well. If they start buying then the sell-off will abruptly stop.
It probably made it a little easier to create the big stop run.
I know that Gary doesn’t believe in EWT, but my interpretation of EWT indicates that we’re on wave 5 on this retracement in silver. Therefore, we either have bottomed or will shortly bottom soon, after which we will move up strongly and make new highs. That goes for gold as well.
That’s what Avi Gilburt is saying as well, Pete.
I’m glad to know that he agrees with me. LOL. However, he does not believe in manipulation of the markets as Gary and I do.
Gary, In your last post your mentioned that this Gold Cycle was extremely right translated having topped on Week 31. This would make this Intermediate Cycle around 10 months in length.
My cycle analysis shows that Gold’s first ICL was on May 31 at 6 months from the Dec 2015 Low. The May Low had everything you need in an ICL: Time 5-6 months, a Fib 32% retrace, a failed Daily Cycle, and an IC trend line break so why would you not recognize May 31 as an ICL?
If May 31st was Gold’s 1st ICL, then this second intermediate Cycle topped after just week 5 and has been heading into its Yearly Cycle Low ever since and will be left translated.
Is this also not a valid cycle scenario?
The other point to be made from a Cycles standpoint about this upcoming ICL is Time.
The first ICL into may took 6 months into the May 31st low. From a Time perspective, it has now been only 4 months since that ICL. While all the oscillators are oversold, it is still possible that this next Low will only be a DCL followed by a bounce and then drop into the Final ICL which would be in late Oct to mid Nov timeframe. Again, perhaps not likely but possible from a Time perspective.
Not saying this is certain but YCL’s can be very nasty affairs. Are you going to hold NUGT and JNUG into a late Oct/Nov ICL if this turns out to be the case?
Hi Surf,
I have looked at past gold ICL’s and have seen where from Nov 2014 there were 3 consecutive ICL’s lasting 18-19 weeks. This ICL is on week 18 so it is highly possible that a bottom could form this week or next week. It doesn’t have to stretch into Nov based on how sharp we have dropped already. This would align perfectly with a DCL which is also possible by next week as it is getting late timing wise. Cycles are tough to call IMO. Could you please tell me about yearly cycle length? When did the last one occur? Are we in timing band for YCL in gold?
Robert, I agree that we could very well have a short ICL here and that is my expectation as well but the only 3x miner vehicle I was holding into this drop was DUST and a smaller 2xer position in ZSl which I had posted on here:
https://goldtadise.com/?p=382839
My USD and YEN Cycle analysis was very different from Gary’s and indicated we were very likely due for a nasty drop so I took profits on all my Miner Trading Positions and even some of my Core positions weeks ago.
https://goldtadise.com/?p=382241
Started buying these positions back yesterday and today with some nice “stink” Limit Bids that got filled. 😉
Robert, My larger point here is that while I am expecting a short ICL here, I plan to be quick and nimble here. At the first evidence that the next Daily Cycle (I call them Trading Cycle) is still part of the current Intermediate Cycle I will bail.
I watch my cycle lines, price channels and other TA indicators closely and don’t plan on holding them if we have another nasty drop into a YCL in late Oct/Nov timeframe. 3X instruments are especially nasty in these kind of declines due to their inherent decay.
This is why I use them primarily for short term trading and never really like to hold them for very long. 2xers are fine for longer term but 3xers are loaded up with both debt and derivatives. The decay in the derivative component can be nasty if you get the direction wrong.
Just my personal risk management approach and preference.
To each his own. 😉
Hey Surf City,
thanks for sharing Your knowledge.
So what would be Your target if the cycle to come were only a daily cycle?
I personally though it may get up to at least 18,40 for Silver from here. Well, this would be the most obvious, because it is just at the 31,8 retracement of this down-move and just below what used to be support. 🙂
Any thoughts?
Robert, Regarding Yearly Cycles. Intermediate Cycles for most assets last 5-6 months in length so a Yearly Cycle is typically two Intermediate Cycle in length.
FWIW, Gold’s Yearly Cycle lows for he past several years have typically been in the Nov/Dec timeframe. You can see this in the charts. My expectations are that both Oil and Stocks will also have YCLs in the Nov to Jan timeframe.
Gold never broke the intermediate trendline in May. The miners also delivered nothing even remotely resembling an ICL in May. They only dropped for two weeks.
There are several criteria for an ICL. The trendline break is one, but I should aslo be able to stand back from my computer screen and clearly identify an ICL. May doesn’t qualify.
We just got a really long intermediate cycle as the baby bull finally broke free from two and a half years of manipulation.
The closest point where the bulls can asset themselves is $1,220. That should be the point to cover all remaining shorts for me.
But I would get excited going long only at $1,150.
Even then Energy has been making so money for me on the long side, why buy the more expensive asset?
I am finally content: the new YC of USX has been confirmed with a break of the weekly down trend line.
YCH is also in the books to be set today with a trap for dollar bulls.
…but even if YCH remains on JUL25 at 97.62, I am still very satisfied ! 🙂
GARY, you know that I have been hunting this moment for a lot of time.
It is only now, with the greenback exhausted and delivering its cyclish duties, that bearish dollar and bullish gold/miner calls have become warranted.
Victor, you put a very risky bet on short oil yesterday because of the aggressive rolling over of USX to come later today, in American trading.
Both oil and CRB index should roll over indeed, as I said last evening, but CRB index had its highest point 2 days ago, i.e. on day 13 (which ensures right-translation but ALLOWS ROOM FOR A DCH ON DAYS 15-18), and with the dollar to go South quickly in the beginning of the next week both oil and CRB might produce higher highs before profit taking.
I give this scenario a probability of 60% – with such a low probability I would stay out of oil altogether and wait for a better moment.
Alexandru,
Are you coinciding with Gary per next week long metals and miners?
I think you may be spot on per oil topping soon too early next week aka 53.50ish.
Thanks!
David Silver! I have not heard of you in quite a long time. Where have you and William from Malaysia been ?
I already am long NEM bought yesterday in the last minute of the session (as I do many of my trades).
I am convinced that gold/miners bottomed yesterday.
As I was telling ZKOT last evening, I was expecting USX to top today in Asian trading and gold to bottom, but gold has delivered today incredible strength, REFUSING TO MIRROR DOLLAR’S TREND! –> extreme bullish case 🙂
As to oil…I am not sure: a 60% bullish case for oil early next week (a top on Tuesday/Wed) is not enough for me to take any trade; besides, I do not like trading oil 🙂
Alex my friend been busy working but always keeping one eye on the markets 😍……. thank you for your continued valuable posts and inputs that have been extremely priceless, cheers for remember me!
Divergence eh? Never dawned on me but you’re right!
I miss William as well!
What’s your target on gold for end of year?
You’re welcome, David!
It’s my pleasure sharing what I know because otherwise trading is a very tedious endeavor – always reviewing numbers on my own gets boring.
That there are really nice people here like you, Gary, Victor, Surf, Amante, just to name a few, renders my tweeting here far more enjoyable.
David, I have no idea about gold at year-end 🙁 sorry, mate!
Buuut …. I guess it will be in the whereabouts of 1300 –> USX’ rise in a new Yearly Cycle (as I was commenting yesterday in a reply to Duck) and the Brexit-induced volatility should put pressure on gold [now unexpected by many].
PS: EURO already shows it bottomed in Asian trading (as expected). It is only UK’s economic problems, just unveiled by its foreign trade report, that succumbs GBP and still provides strength to USX.
error correction: USX’ rise in a new Intermediary Cycle at year-end through January, instead of Yearly Cycle.
Alex,
You may be a little premature on the long miners position. I’m still seeing weakness in gold, and probably GDX yesterday afternoon.
Your comment about losing beauty sleep struck a chord with me. I was looking at GDX near market close around 3:30 a.m. — but my mind is frazzled at that hour. I miss certain subtleties that I only pick up on the next day, during my 1st or 2nd cup of coffee, when NY is closed. Beauty sleep, as in, the beauty of refreshing one’s mind and emotional state with a good night’s sleep!
I’m struggling to make the shift to Forex, to get off the New York time frame. Just haven’t adjusted to the weird mechanics of Forex trading. You may recall about 1-2 weeks ago, I mentioned that EURUSD and cable were both forming triangles, with the Euro on a larger degree, and both triangles pointing down. GBPUSD broke down this week, while EURUSD looks simply to be moving down into D of triangle, with the breakdown forthcoming in a few more months — maybe December? I don’t know when, just that it’s a few months away.
Your comment about the tediousness of trading is also timely for me. I’m watching the World Series of Poker — there seems to be a disproportionate number of Economists making deep runs, along with lawyers and psychologists. Makes sense — for me, a poker tournament is simply another market-game scenario, and it moves much faster than a financial market!
So I will save up my money and go for the WSOP when possible. Not that I’m a better player than the pros, rather, I’m convinced they approach the table with a sub-optimum strategy: They spend way too much effort worrying about what the other guy is doing, trying to be clever and grab chips here and there, rather than considering probabilities and risk management.
Come to think of it, that’s my same comment about Gary: Too much worrying about what this one or that one is allegedly doing, not enough focus on price movement over time, and the implications on probability assessment and risk management.
And as in poker, I don’t have the practical experience of a long-time pro trader, but I do believe many of their strategies are sub optimum, based on probability assessment and risk management.
What do you mean by the D of a triangle? Do you have a link to direct me to this technicality ?
I had an aunt playing poker for fun but she was afraid to instill the details of the game, but instead she was telling me about the fortune losses of some of her friends, so that I grew with the usual apprehension about the game.
It was not until I saw the movie HAVANA featuring Robert Redford that I started to come to terms with the game, but I’m still shrugging it; I even don’t know its rules 🙂
On the other hand I encourage you to go with it. As long as you are not entered in bias and you are equipped with requisite risk management rules, you should give yourself a try in the Championship.
I am not waiting for a possible further decline in gold as Gary has suggested. The reversal is could be very violent and occur in the middle of the night while we are asleep. Buying now!
Yeah, Gary I think you called it. The US detail was quite tepid and the chinese holiday is over and they will be back to work Sunday night our time. We had a nice long-legged dogi from Friday.
Can’t wait to see what happens next. Keep up the good work.