44 thoughts on “THE LAST LINE IN THE SAND FOR GOLD – 1275

  1. Steffmeister

    Hey Greg, now you start to sound like me and the highly skilled elliott wavers 🙂

    We are in a B-wave right now that will be followed by a horrific C-wave. Then after the C-wave is finished a new Bull will start. Within the major B we had experienced an A wave up, a B-wave down, soon a C wave up will start. Sounds confusing, look at the video. Think about it selling your miners after another 200-300% up and buying them back at -50% pr more when the major C-wave is finished. That being said always keep your guard up, there is an alternative scenarion with no or a very shallow C-wave down.

    Tom Denham is a good analyst:

  2. Robert

    Crap. It looks like maybe gold has not hit ICL low yet. Dropping hard now, a dead cat bounce. The bears, Surf and Avi were right….new lows coming Gary

    1. Surf City

      Robert, I am not a Bear here. I closed my hedges last week and am very bullish on Gold and the Miners longer term. I have also been rebuilding my trading positions last week and earlier this week but I have them on a short leash for now as I am not yet convinced that the YCL is in just yet.

      Gary may well be correct that the YCL is behind us but ICLs can be tricky. Unlike Gary, I do have late May as an ICL as it met all my expectations including Time at 6 months along with a 38% retrace.

      We are now closing in on 5 months from May 31st and nearing my timing band for a YCL but Gold and the Miners need to break out to the upside of their current Bear Flag Patterns. Until they do, price remains in a Bear Flag channel and my long positions on a short leash.


      1. Robert

        Thanks for your thoughts. Well I think i’m screwed either way. Have some options expiring in January and I need a big push up. May have to just sell them for a loss and buy some March 2017 or later

        1. Surf City

          If we bottom in mid-November or earlier on GDX at the 19.50 to 21 level, you still have a lot of time for the miners to move up into January. Moves out of ICLs are often very impulsive in a Bull Market.

          That impulsive move signature is what I am looking for now but all I am seeing is price chopping in a Bear Flag so far. We should know very soon how things will play out over the next month. By the end of next week, it should be very clear if the YCL is in or not.

      2. sidmcguire

        Sir Surf, I’m a big fan of your analysis. I always read your stuff here, GoldTent and Chartology.
        Please keep it coming. That said, I’ve noticed the last few days or so you keep referring to the bear flag in the miners. It just doesn’t look right to me…..What about this? http://schrts.co/2Rnv5v Seems to fit better….nice break out and BT. Anyway, love your work please keep it coming!

        1. Surf City

          Hi SidMcGuire, You wedge or pendant is a valid form of Chartology that Rambus and many others use. No criticism from me on this approach at all. My preference, however, is to look for a parallel price channel whenever possible as that is how I believe price actually moves over time. That is one reason I use Forks but I don’t need a valid Fork to find a channel.

          If I can establish an uptrend line or downtrend line, I then look for a Parallel line that will guide price within a channel until it doesn’t. But the Break outside the channel tells me something as well. My technique is clearly illustrated in my post that you reference. Nothing changed today from my channel perspective and my expectations are that Gold and GDX will chop in these channels until they break one way or another.

          Hope this helps.


  3. Alexandru Popovici

    USX has just touched the minimum hoped level of 98.55 today in Asian trading (I mentioned yesterday the minmum target of 98.55).
    It might have a slight bounce but if it occurs it will be limited in time anyway and it will start dropping.

    Gold’s move is on the run. I agree with Gary on this.
    This correction of gold to 1264 is the last chance to buy gold cheap !

  4. Alexandru Popovici

    USX is pitting its bulls and bears at pivot 98.52 – a strong fight is here.
    If bulls prove unable to lift the price, then bears will take over and the price will succumb (helping gold to shine to new highs).
    I personally believe that bulls will lose the fight at 98.52.
    The important thing though is that the minimum requisite of 98.55 I touted yesterday has been met in Asian trading.

  5. Gary Post author

    There is the break of the Brexit low I was looking for in the euro. I thought that had to happen before the euro could complete its ICL. So far gold is holding up very well despite the dollar strength.

    Dollar cycle on day 45. The euro chart is such a mess I really don’t know how to count it, but it appears to be on day 86 and into the bloodbath phase of an intermediate decline.

    Sentiment has reached extremes in both currencies and they should both be ripe for intermediate degree reversals anytime.

  6. zkotpen

    I am in the camp of Steffmeister: Intermediate degree bull trap in progress in metals, to be followed by another intermediate move down into the YCL.

  7. Dday

    I can’t see why the dollar would reverse course until the rate decision has been made in November. Regardless if its a hold or hike.

    1. Gary Post author

      There won’t be a rate hike in November. The odds are so far against it there is no chance.

  8. duckwhorocks1

    Oh for heaven’s sake. See what is before your eyes.
    Gold is NOT following the USD index.
    It is following USD/JPY.
    Hence when people say “it is acting well despite USD strength”…they are not noticing that USD/JPY is lower…JPY stronger this morning.
    Until that correlation breaks Gold will be under pressure as USD-JPY moves to its 200 moving average which is about 400 pips higher.

  9. AmantedeTeclas

    The US Dollar just smashed another ceiling. This will either be a monster rally or the third test of the 100 points on the index, which will turn out to be a right shoulder maybe or the consolidation after it the last chance to get out of the way. Am I right or an idiot?

    1. victor

      Amantede, looks like people respect you more then you yourself…, why such a low self-esteem? we all can be wrong in this game… My wife is on vacation and want to go to casino, leaving in a few hours… that’s what I would call stupid but she wants it… ) :

      1. AmantedeTeclas

        Thanks Viktor.

        Well, I think it is better to admit Your / my own possible idiocy because it makes it easier to learn new things. Better be humble than an arrogant fool. 😀

        Also I am a stubborn person, which bears potential for conflicts, especially with my temperamental Latin girlfriend and fiance. That is why it is better to not be too proud. It keeps You calm.

    1. Gary Post author

      Exactly. All these EW guys have multiple wave counts. One of them has to be correct. Then they brag about making perfect trades. Nonsense.

      It’s just another scam to lure people into buying an overpriced subscription.

      When they start running real time portfolios with real trades and real position sizing then they can boast about correct calls.

      1. TraderPete

        Gary, did you hear that Mahendra Sharma, the astrologer, is predicting gold will go down to $775 before the bull market in gold and silver will begin? No wonder I don’t believe in astrology.

        1. Gary Post author

          I don’t see any logical way that the stars can influence the stock market so I have to that’s mostly mumbo jumbo.

          1. Surf City

            Gann Cycle methodology has an element of Astrology built into in along with moon cycles. Cycles are all about investor sentiment which is essentially human emotion.

            Gann believed that these astrological cycles or phases influenced humans and their emotions rather strongly. As I recall, he was one of the most successful traders ever. Never lost it all like Jessie. 😉

  10. Don

    In this era of central bank influence on the markets, how can anyone believe EW to be of any value? It seems to me that AVI, who is very big on EW, predicts every possible outcome, thereby allowing him to claim that he consistently ‘right’? His favorite saying is “one more time” Useless waste of time.

    1. duckwhorocks1

      Even funnier than that is that retard’s disclosures.
      “I am long Gold and Gold shares” followed by “I have hedged my long position.”

  11. rupp

    Gold has to rally soon into december because its going to get crushed again into jan/feb when they dont raise rates.

    1. boltfan13

      The Fed has been telling us “one 1/4 rate rise in 2016” for the last three months to a 0.75% fed funds target rate between 0.50% to 0.75%. It’s coming in December unless we get a real outlier event between now and then. Reread my first sentence again so you won’t be surprised when it happens.

    2. s29

      LMAO @ FED

      The Fed officials suddenly talking tough about raising interest rates, after Donald Trump correctly called Yellen out in the second debate, DESPITE the fact that the US macro figures are getting worse every week. While the argument before was that the US macro figures, when they were higher, should be better before the Fed could raise rates. It’s just total nonsense!

      After Hillary is elected (or even Trump), Yellen will feel 0.0 need to raise interest rates, because the political pressure to do so is off. Hillary first wants to get into office, then lining out policies, then economy hopefully will do better over time. Only then the Fed will raise interest rates. Trump actually doesn’t really care about the Fed, he wants to focus on the fiscal side of the economy. He also doesn’t directly see the need for higher interesest rates. He also wants to get into office first, but he isn’t going to focus on the Fed.

      December rate hike = tough talk = ain’t gonna happen
      If they do = financial crash = US recession with already bad numbers
      consequence: lowering interest rates again + QE4 = admitting the Fed made a gigantic mistake and is extremely incompetent, a lot more than how incompetent they are percieved now

      1. duckwhorocks1

        Zerohedge and family have been calling for a crash forever.
        First it was if the Fed foes not do more QE
        Then it was if the Fed Stops QE
        Then it was if they ever raise rates.
        Now it is if they raise rates again.
        Don’t you guys get tired of being wrong?

        Look at wage compensation numbers.
        We are going to see serious inflation in 2017. The fed will raise rates at least 4 times in the next 15 months.

  12. s29

    Adding to that, there’s only one conclusion:

    if the Fed does not raise interests rates = incompetent Fed
    if the Fed do raise interest rates = financial crash + US recession = extremely incompetent Fed

    Which one will dove Yellen chose?

    She will choose to raise interest rates at the earliest in May 2017. 100%.

      1. s29

        US macro is actually also getting worse because of the Fed because of the stronger dollar which doesn’t help US exports and US companies! Good job Fed, US economy is already at an abysmal 1.4% growth rate and maybe even lower.

  13. Dreamer


    These are probably another of the Elliot Wavers too that you speak of.
    Sunshine Profits sent me a free e-mail today with the following:

    The big decline in the precious metals appears to already be underway (even though we are in a short-term corrective upswing) and it seems that gold will move much lower in the coming months even though it’s likely to move higher in the coming days. The big decline remains to be the most important development for gold and silver investors. Why? Because this decline’s end is likely to present the ultimate buying opportunity for precious metals and for mining stocks. You’ll find our take on the million-dollar question in today’s alert.

  14. boltfan13

    Jim Rickards had a private dinner with the NY Fed President Dudley on Wednesday night. (10/19/2016)

    Rickards: “The most important view Dudley expressed was his belief that the Fed will raise interest rates “before the end of the year.” There are only two Fed FOMC meetings between now and the end of the year: Nov. 2 and Dec. 14.

    No one expects any policy decision on Nov. 2, since it’s just six days before the U.S. presidential election. The Fed may or may not be political, but they are definitely not stupid. The Fed does not want to be blamed by either side for the outcome of the presidential election, so they will take a pass.

    That leaves December, and the Fed will definitely raise rates then…”

    Ignore at your own peril.

  15. rupp

    The same rickards that in January was calling for three hikes this year? Then in sept was calling for no hikes this year? Now calling for December hike? Clearly gospel.

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