Another Failed Breakout
Now the dollar is in the same camp as the Nasdaq, having generated a potential failed breakout.
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Smart Money Tracker
Another Failed Breakout
Now the dollar is in the same camp as the Nasdaq, having generated a potential failed breakout.
Like our new Facebook page to stay current on all things Smart Money Tracker
Silver a buy tonight/tomorrow at 16.60-16.69 with a stop below 16.495 Silver holding up better than gold.
I like to get some silver to hold for a while, can you mention which etf’s, stocks, are a choice?
Thanks.
fnv, paas and slw
HL (Hecla)’s chart is really interesting. Price above both 50 and 200 sma (some people use others). I know one trader who uses the 86 day MA and HL has traded around that for some time (weeks). Other guys like AG. PAAS chart looks good, too. But remember, silver can be extremely volatile. I don’t day trade silver stocks or ETF’s (I use futures for that).
I agree, silver has been behaving very well considering the last several weeks in Gold and the miners.
pms look fine for short term. Beyond that, it could be iffy. NAS will likely peak when amzn, aapl, googl,fb, etc. peak.Breach in semis could be filled by other groups. Brokers and financials strong. Until this changes, premature bears could be forced to scramble for cover.
No way I would short stocks. I wouldn’t buy them either unless the Nasdaq can recover the breakout and make higher highs.
Gary, I put in a lot of dow in the gold related investments with the assumption that in the bull market one can gainfully enter at any point. At this particular point my faith in in this theory seems to be dwindling. In fact I have lost more money in last few weeks than I can afford. Should I get out and salvage whatever little is left or should I be stubborn and wait for a turn around. Your thoughts will be highly appreciated. Any advise from any of the experts is welcome.
Vin,
Let me volunteer some comments.
I would ask myself how much I like to play this game; if you like to play it often then play small amounts and build up your account. If you just want to buy and hold then silver appears a good choice, I would put 20% there. Playing gold is very risky right now as it is below the averages and currently the sentiment is very low. But putting 10% – 15% could be OK as long as you closely follow it. You may look for other buys, but get in when there is a good set-up like the cup and handle. Get a copy of O’Neil’s book; he gives sound advice. Aim for independent thinking. Do not rush, take your time to make thoughtful decisions. As per the money you have now in, ask yourself how much more are you wiling to lose and what it means for you. Take a decision set a stop loss and do not move it. Protect also your phycology about playing the market. It also can be hurt.
Thanks Goild.
Look at diverse opinions of gold and make a decision. Gold want you te fear but then there is a time to persevere (do not react on panic as the world is in shambles and maskes just so long). I suggest Read these two analysis Sive is most comprehensive (weekly view and has daily overview I look at every day) links that are good I follow for diverse bull and bear balance). It will give a guide to decide position on Gold . We are at a critical point on gold that is still bullish on monthly and weekly. There must be some bounce either way. http://www.forexpeacearmy.com/community/threads/gold-pro-weekly-december-05-09-2016.48246/
https://goldpredict.com/?p=6244
My recommendation was no more than 20-50% in metals. Did you do more than that, and if so, why?
On the other hand if this is a new bull market, and I think it is, then yes the bull will correct any timing mistakes.
Yes Gary, you did suggest putting some limit on the percentage to be invested in pm. But, 50% of the total is significant considering what has happened to the the leveraged positions over the last few weeks. Isn’t it?
“…..if this is a new bull market,….”. is that a fundamental shift in your position? Few weeks ago you were much more assertive, and critical of those who would not dare to invest in pm at that time? In fact you were downright insulting.
Finally, how and where I invest is my choice. I wasn’t holding you responsible for my decision. So, don’t ask me “why”. I was asking for your new (modified) advise to those who have been misled. Thanks for your response.
That’s not advice that Vin can use telling him that IF its a bull market price will go up. Vin let me give you some advice on your position. First thing forget about whatever amount of money you had because it is irrelevant. If you started with $100k and lost $50k then you now have $50k to put to work in whatever offers the best possible return. I don’t know how you trade but look at everything and decide where you would put your money TODAY. If you look at charts then would you choose to buy gold today based on the current chart or would you choose something else. Don’t stay in your position just because your already in them and you hope to make back what you lost. Also don’t ever trade with the belief that a bull will correct timing mistakes. That is bad advice because you are going in assuming that there is only upside and not downside to a trade. That if you wait long enough you will get your money back eventually. That is definately not true when you use options and leveraged ETFs. Know where you want to get out and just take the loss and reevaluate. Finally don’t try to define markets as bull or bear. Those are just terms used in hindsight if something moved 20% in either direction. Instead think about things being in an uptrend or downtrend and realize that the trend can change at any point. If you assume that gold is back in new bull it means that you know where price is going in the future and you can’t lose. Nothing is set is stone and can’t change at a moments notice.
Don’t be like the gold retards who held on tight from 2011 until their accounts were entirely decimated 5 years later, Vin. Unless of course you are one of the people who also thinks Detroit housing is a good bet in the long run!
Gold and silver are both in secular bear markets. They will not bottom for many years to come. We are not in a new bull market either which can easily be appreciated by reviewing any long term charts so don’t be deluded by the idiots who make that nonsensical claim.
Most of them have an agenda of one sort or another.
That does not mean gold is not tradeable though. Everything is tradeable. Just understand that what we saw this year is a classic dead cat bounce in a long term declining pattern that will not end for more than a decade. And if you want to hold on you will probably have very poor performance overall.
Sorry Ped, that’s rubbish. I copied this wrong comment and will send it later in 2017, when gold is on a new high.
Not rubbish. There are only a few dozen instances where a new bull market was still a bull market after such a deep retracement of price such as we are now seeing. If you saw the Gann data of all instances of bull market rally’s that saw retraces exceeding 65% they are few and far between. That data measured all commodities, not just gold. And with every percentage point lower the odds that this is a bull and it will assert itself become narrower. And as far as I could see from the record there are zero cases where a 100% retrace was ever able to become a bull market. In other words, even making a double bottom if gold goes back to its December 2015 lows still does not assure this is going anywhere big. We are talking probabilities therefore and the odds are no longer favourable as each new low struck increases the odds that this is exactly what I have said.
That gold was in nothing more than a bear market rally all along.
Besides Gary, I like to follow Larry Williams’ philosophy of trading and his advice, especially the seasonalities. He has written several books and has a training course. I have made a lot of money following his seasonal patterns. I also like silver at this point. I bought quite a lot at $15.19 basis the spot price when the GSR was above 80. I use GSR a lot to guide my trading. I also happen to believe that we have turned the corner in silver and will be going up much higher from here, but not straight up. I think we will probably go sideways to up for a couple of months and then take off on a steeper slope after that. I hope this helps, and hang in there.
I smell a Black Swan around the corner. I’m thinking that if Trump continues to piss of China, and play hard ball with them, China can pull the plug on the Dollar. Sadly, the USA is in no position to bargain with China. Walk into any Walmart, Home Depot or Lowes and you’ll see most of the stuff is made in China. I was in the auto parts business and 80% + of all parts in GM, Ford & Chrysler vehicles are made in China as well as most after market parts. If China withheld exports to the USA for a month our country would come to a stand still.
“Walk into any Walmart, Home Depot or Lowes and you’ll see most of the stuff is made in China.”
Gmoney, when any seller is so reliant on a single customer for their bread its the buyer who is in charge, not the manufacturer. China is in no position to dictate anything, let alone the terms of the dollar. And anyway, what does that even mean? If you are suggesting pulling the plug means a lower dollar that would be devastating for many of the exporters over there who are swinging on a meat hook already and relying on their own currency (Yuan) to be devalued as their primary trade advantage. So the first casualties of any trade wars are going to be the highly leveraged export oriented manufacturers in China, not the US economy or the dollar. I am talking about the thousands of Chinese business that are already teetering on the brink of a debt pile that is badly in arrears. Don’t forget that China is one of many low wage manufacturer nations that made inroads into the US. They may be the largest but other than a few key products they are not the only kid on the block where sourcing is concerned.
China can survive without Dollars – can the USA survive without stocked shelves at Walmart, Home Depot, Lowes and just about every other retail store in America?
GMoney, You are right that china can hurt the US. But what will happen to China in that case? Li is an astute leader. He will avoid confrontation with the US. In fact confrontation will be beneficial for America. Trump has an opportunity to corrects the wrongs of Kissinger (Henery). In fact it is a win-win situation for the US. Let us wait and see what happens because it does require courage to think outside the box.
think again vin…
tulip, what I say is not based on thinking. It is based on hard numbers. For a change the next American president Trump seems to be carefully looking at those numbers. I really wish and hope that he is not playing political games with these facts. This might the last chance for America. If the world followed the present trajectory, then the US will not not be a great power in LESS than 50 years. I simply admire the courage of Americans who have given Trump a chance to correct the situation. This could not have happened anywhere else. Brexit came close. And, that Modi guy in India seems to be on the right track. Let us keep our fingers crossed my friend.
Tulips comment was empty Vi. Why did you even bother answering it?
Gee Pedest,
I just don’t think Vin or you have the ‘hard’ numbers translating correctly
for Vin to imply Trump is going to change the trajectory.
I think that if I understand correctly that is a very naive statement.
Ignorant really.
Who & whom do you believe Trump is going to help…..??#!?
Please excuse my emptiness….
You didn’t say any of that the first time Tulip so it was left to our imagination what you were thinking. The problem with China right now is that they already face a credit collapse without any outside forces being added that might push them a little prematurely. They are dumping product on the market all over the world just to keep the doors open on factories that should have been shut long ago. The State subsidizes and bails out most of its failures and that in itself is extremely anticompetitive when manufacturers elsewhere do not get the same advantage. With the dollar strengthening and the Yuan weakening their hand has improved. Perhaps the Donald would like to rebalance things a little and I happen to think he is on the right track.
And by the way Gary, you are dead wrong on the dollar. I don’t know where you get this ” possible failed breakout” stuff from. It was (and is) a breakout no matter how you slice it and dice it. And it has just begun.
tulip, China has done well by
1. Treating their workers worse than slaves. Until a few years ago many companies used to pay them $3/day.
2. China has done well by selling their goods to America while America did not tax their products or taxed them very little.
3. China taxed American products to the fullest.
4. China curtailed labor movement within the country.
5 China manipulated its currency.
6. Chinese banking system is worse than the mafia
6. Finally, as Pedestrian has correctly pointed out that China skewed up royally in managing the capital. There are towns after towns where no one lives. There are thousands of kilometers of roads where no one travel, there are airports where planes never land etc.
Yes China has done well because it is a brutal dictatorship and it used the American market without giving much in return.
Will Trump stand up to China and do what is needed? I don’t know that he will do it. I wish and I hope that he keeps his promises.
Regarding manufacturing of cheap goods, to-day countries like Vietnam, Bangladesh, India (for software), Malaysia etc. can produce many products cheaper than China. For, electronic goods China is no much for Taiwan and Korea given the same level field.
I feel Dr. Kissinger was too kind to China for whatever reason. And, I feel that Trump has a chance to correct the situation. Let us hope and pray that he does. Amen!
vin, remember some month ago Gary (it’s going to very hated name soon) told “at the bottom nobody can move a finger to buy” , those who understand is buying, expecting at least a good bounce.. your emotions took over your logics…
also, please play less with leverages 3-5% total no more. If you want to at least double your money next year buy LYD.to
Thanks Victor.
Victor,
Can you explain your recommendation to buy LYD to double?
On what do you base it?
Thanks for the comments on silver stocks/etf’s.
I took a look at SIL, AG, AG, AXU, SIW, USLV.
It seems that they can be a good choice; though I do not see it too much different than gold in outlook.
I am focusing in gold so I can better manage my position; I do not have a mind for managing I guess more than one or two stocks/etfs. I was in oil but in a bad moment I sold it; and oil is very difficult to read I think for day trading.
It broke out when it held above 100.5. There is/was nothing failed about it, just Gary’s wishful thinking. So gold can consolidate, but the dollar, no it’s a failed breakout, give me a break….
Notice neither pm’s or miners rallied on the dollar fall, I can’t see that written on the post….
As per looking ahead, I see gold for this week slightly rising, perhaps touching the weekly averages, perhaps extending till the FOMC meeting. Either when it touches the weekly averages two times, or when the FOMC news comes up, this is 12/14th at 2:00 PM, gold will spike with a long legged doji and take off higher.
Beware of both bear and bull traps that most likely will be played by the manipulators.
The fact that the miners stayed about even today responding to the USD drop, suggest that their performance currently is about 40% deepening on gold and 60% depending on USD. I made a good amount of money today knowing this. But was not free as I spent several hours on the weekend figuring out the miners/gold dependences after Gary pointed out their divergence. I find a lot of value in the discussions we are having as useful information is gleaned. It is the collective thought that becomes powerful.
That neither PM’s nor the miners rallied on the USD drop indicates that something else is going on, and that a change is happening. Note the very tight leash the manipulators have on the weekly candle length for NUGT/miners. This narrow range in price suggests that we may see a gap one of these days.
Dollar falls/gold miners fail to rally. Dollar rises pm’s fall, no mystery, gold is weak.
Yes, gold is weak, gold’s downtrend is steady suggesting the institutions are dumping it at rate set by the FOMC, the candles on NUGT are too narrow just in the brink of breaking through and going down to the next level around $5.8- $6.5.
On the other hand there is resistance, the miners are moving slightly up, the inverse etf’s have penetrated the averages, USD appears to have reversed, sentiment is too low, a bounce is overdue, TIPS are also penetrating the averages, we had in January 20th an extreme for the miners when the gold/miners ratio was extremely high and we are so close to a repeat when oil and the equities are up.
We shall see….
Either gold will bounce sharply with dollar weakness, or the dollar correction is going to be short lived.
And to complete the thought….
The situation is uncertain, perhaps 50%-50%, but it does not matter, although I am long, or I could be short, what counts is that I may face a loss of 1%-6% but stand a chance of making at least 10-20%.
The only pitfall is to be deceived by the manipulators with a trap, and so I follow very closely all their tricks.
Good night.
I’m not really seeing any manipulation, just not much interest/volume in pm’s hence no strength to break from this range and test resistance. Please don’t play the manipulation card every time pm’s fail to perform. All I look at are support and resistance levels….
I haven’t seen much evidence of manipulation during this correction. A couple of large attacks but nothing that suggests the banks are trying to reignite the bear market.
SPY SP500- Stocks settled right at the 10-day EMA once again. A solid close below it will confirm that a correction is underway.
Just read other trader mention:’Bonds drop Rates Rise – Higher Interest paid om CDs pulls money out of Gold’ any comments?
Gary, your jaw must be getting sore from having the dollar kick you in the teeth , over and over. I guess if you keep calling for a correction, you will get lucky eventually. Remember how gold stomped on you from 2013-2015 until you finally got it ‘right’ back in the early part of 2016. Ignore the trolls and don’t give up. BTW, when did you get interesting in the bond market. I thought that was a market you didn’t follow.
I meant : When did you get interested in the bond market?
He does not know the market. Guessing and blaming on manipulation does not work. I bought back jnug yesterday at 6.6, max for this run up is 23.4 this time. Will get out here and waiting for the new low to arrive before getting back into gold. Only if gdx gets above 26, you will consider it gold is bullish. If not, new low is coming after 23.4. Robert, once it gets here, close your position, you will sleep better. 😉
I will be shorting the SNP 500 today and tomorrow. First position today. Alex, the mini scorch is going to start, December 7 and 8 is official. I will get out mid month.
Gary, exactly as I thought. You kept stating, dollar collapsing, when quoting around 96-97. I told you it would top by 102, which happened, and you said nothing. Then I told you it could correct back to 97-96, so we shld see Gold or at least Miners strong rebound… I repeat.. REBOUND… and if that happens and we see dollar back to 97-96.. u would flip. So far so good … suggest u keep calm and wait for the market to speak the true trend. Thks 😀