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What about the YEN??
Great charts shows dollar is heading for 120 Euro 85, thanks.
Charts can only show history, not the future 🙂
Our minds project price into the future based on recency bias.
Gary, looks like today could be the USD DCL. This would mean gold could go down from here into FOMC to maybe 1150-1160? USD getting late in intermediate cycle so the bounce should be short and then gold gets over 1200
Robert have you looked at the dollar today, Dragi just announced further QE.
I see but gold is way past due for a bounce
So What do the charts “potentially” show you Gary?
I agree on the daily, defiantly looks like gold is due for a bounce technically.
http://invst.ly/2wowj
The charts are my third level tool. First I determine where in the cycle an asset is and then check the sentiment levels. If the cycle is deep in the timing band, and sentiment is bearish extreme, then I expect oversold conditions to trigger a bottom soon.
Gary: You are forgetting that the Dollar index is made up of multiple fiat currencies and if most of their respective central banks are engaging in QE simultaneously then currency weakness due to QE won’t be reflected in the index.
This morning things do not smell right.
NUGT shares gone.
Good trading today.
“You know, it is a bull market”
Dude, stop confusing QE with PRINTING money. QE is BALANCE SHEET money. Until these money goes into circulation, you are staring through the looking glass and waiting for a dollar crisis.
You are absolutely wrong on this. QE is the direct monetization of debt.
The problem is this: the BOJ (and ECB) is monetizing more debt per capital than the Fed. Period.
The yen and euro have the largest weighting in the dxy by far.
This is a game of relativity, and a totally rigged one at that since ECB, BoJ and Fed policy is 100% coordinated. USD strength is by design. If the BoJ wanted to send DXY up 10% in one day, they could do it by just announcing a sufficiently gargantuan QE. Technicals just do not matter a whole lot when supply of the underlying is literally infinite.
You give too much credit to central bankers. I am with Jim Rickards on that – namely they just don’t know what they are doing. Their working method is try and error and dollar is hardly strong by design but just because it is still the world reserved currency and most of the investors STILL have confidence in the system so they pile into greenbacks.
Today is Thursday which can be a strong day.
SPY may continue on its way up and so TIPS would not go up.
Then gold stays leveled or goes down.
USD changed its mind this morning and appears to be reversing on its way up.
“You know, it is a bull market”
Further, so far gold and miners appear to be following a scheduled downward movement in a straight line that may end at 4:00 PM.
I am not a guru or a crystal ball; but you got to use your imagination in this game.
“You know, it is a bull market”
Dollar rise due to Dragi announcement extending QE. Although on a monthly basis i’m bearish gold. The daily indicating a bounce.
http://invst.ly/2wowj
The dollar is rising but gold holds up very well.
Stock market so much like SEP-OCT 2014 !
It is good to see USX-SPX correlation getting back positive.
Most likely I will renew my short next week. Signals I wanna get are all 3 at the same time:
– SKEW above 135
– VIX-SPX on positive correlation (i.e. VIX closing higher than today’s low of 11.30 despite SPX growing alongside USX)
– daily swing high in NYSE Composite.
Just buy more FAZ. He he.
got stopped out of it a long time ago.
I’ll buy SPXU
Gary, the Nasdaq is threatening to make a new high. If it does , thereby negating your “failed breakout” concerns, will you be buying stocks hand over fist?
I would buy at the next daily cycle low. It should be due right around the inauguration. Sentiment is too extreme and price is too stretched above the mean to chase right now.
A break above 101.6 should keep dollar on its bullish course. If it falls back off that level I feel it could consolidate for a while.
http://invst.ly/2wpon
As far as QE, the USD and the ECB… it’s all just static noise to me… follow the Weekly and Daily charts: they will show you way… I enjoy the feedback as it shows me sentiment: unfortunately… I see a lot people taking news way to seriously, thus allowing emotion to enter the game… an old saying on Wall Street: regarding news… if everyone knows it… it is not worth knowing… News is fabricated for the retail investor… by the big brokerage firms… whatever there real plan is… the little guy is not going to know until it is too late… once in awhile you come across a Real Maverick like Gary… he is worth listening too… but more important is to follow the Charts- p
Another thing I strongly agree with Gary on: knowing when to enter Long, and knowing when to stay on the sidelines. And taking no Short Positions! From my experience… most of the time is the wrong time to enter a Trades- anyone can enter a position- getting out with a profit is the trick… I have been trading and following the market since 1990 and have since evolved to ETF’s from the Summer of 2007 until late 2010… I went to cash and did not trade… I was done with Market… when Leverage EFT’s I became interested with again. I found that in the summer 2007 all my simple swing and day trades were failing… and I was getting stopped out like mad… I went to the sidelines. I despises losses… and find that individual stocks carry too much overnight risk… Preservation of Capitol and good entries are my primary goals… I don’t fall in love with any position… I treat them like an employee… when they fail to produce… I am out- good day everyone and a special thanks to Gary…
So where do you stand on gold regarding the weekly and monthly charts?
This week candle may not end up to long, and so showing a slowing down trend.
It is also not so close to the averages. So there is hope the end it close.
However, the FOMC disrupts things.
Sound trading requires one to stay out.
Unless one loves risk.
Currently the odds are against the bulls in gold.
“You know, it is a bull market”
On Gold Weekly Chart: I agree with Gary, the Trendline needs to broken… a weekly close on XAU above 86 would be good… otherwise it is just another bounce like a few weeks ago… forget about the monthy charts… Iike Weekly and Day charts… a close above the 50ma would be a good start on Day Chart… along with Weekly CCI rising about the centerline -0-… what I don’t like is a Thur, Fri closing lower for any type of position on a Day Charts… a lot of new traders try to enter to early and get caught holding…. it is important to follow the trendline… Bottom line if you missed the entry sit of the sidelines… for those who played the bounce… or possible bottom… that move might be taking a pause or is just plain over… don’t chase a position- stay on the sidelines…
in all positions: my opinion only- there is beginning, a middle and an end… when I consider taking a position- it is important to know your timeline and where the position is at in a Run… if I am not sure… I just stay on the sidelines… another good tool is Pivot points- for End of Day charts… they are reliable and to some extend dummy proof for those who have can follow cut and dry rules- p
Take a look at JNUG on last Thur, Fri- higher high on each day… with follow through into this week… look at JNUG today it is making Lower Low… having broke yesterday low and filling the Gap Up on Wed… this tells me that the short term Run is taking a pause or may be temporarily over… so today I would not enter a position on JNUG… for me it is important to not set up expectations… because when I do that I trying to tell Market what to do instead of following the Action/Charts- p
Paul,
Isn’t filling the gap a great opportunity to get into JNUG if one thinks is going up?
What does it take for you to get into a position? buy higher w/ momentum? Very curious. thx.
As I stated before: know where the run is at? Beginning, Middle or End? With JNUG… a quick swing trade developed on Thur Dec 1 and confirmed on Friday Dec 2 with higher high… on those two days… with carry over into this week… Now on Wed 12-7 it made a short term top at 7.96… today making a lower low and filling the gap… so for me we are at the End of Short term run… or a bounce… all taking place below the 50ma… making these trades more likely to be bounces… rather than a reversal… today Pivot on JNUG is about 7.46… with S3 around 6.34 so with today action… I think it is likely that short run Dec 1 is about over for now or pausing… without taking out the Pivot… today is a day to stay on the sidelines…
thanks for the reply
I believe Gary correctly points out that the “pros” enter the market at oversold, overbought conditions.
“You know, it is a bull market”
Toady SPY is pausing with a doji.
Tomorrow is Friday and pay day. A lot of money will flow into the market.
So it is reasonable to expect SPY will have a long green candle tomorrow.
A typical bullish candle three day pattern.
An so Gold cannot go up today or tomorrow.
“You know, it is a bull market”
VIX continues to creep higher as SPX stalls – smart money is buying insurance 🙂 as we are on day 23 of this daily cycle.
A small correction should ensue then a higher high and there I’ll go short on a swing high.
… and VIX thrusts to new day highs as SPX puts fresh historical highs! Nice! I am taking my short-trade out of the fridge to warm it up before “cooking” 🙂
You know in 1997, the VIX went up for 2 years while the market was rising.
So the scorch begins…..
yes alex, I’ve also been saying vix vs spx contradiction is first glimmer of hope for equity bears. Equities close to a roll over in my view, but unlike your proposed scorch, lkiely 1 or 2 percent down and then at best for bears a grinding with upward bias into year end unless the current vix action validates otherwise with a impulsive up move
Jon, there is ample evidence that this new intermediary cycle of SM is gonna be shortened: either one long daily cycle (like in Aug-Oct 2014) or two daily cycle: the former to bottom after FOMC in less than 2w and the latter a shortened daily cycle to top in Christmas rally (higher historical high) and produce left-translation.
Either way YCL is to be set in JAN.
VIX up from a 11.30 bottom to 13.00 on a rising SM 🙂
VIX should rise to its 200ma most likely tomorrow on a small correction and then to produce a higher low as SPX moves into higher historical ground on Monday/Tuesday.
SKEW should also rise >135 early next week.
No responses from Gary ? Maybe he is unconcious from getting kicked in the teeth by the rising US dollar that is refusing to play the ‘cycles’ game. I am still buying more silver and platinum.
I don’t and haven’t traded currencies in a long time. The insane whipsaws like we saw today should be enough to keep everyone out of those markets.
Alexandru,
Following yesterday’s VIX jump, VIX up almost 10% on another up day today!!! History says this does not bode well for near term returns.
http://jlfmi.tumblr.com/post/154191468635/stocks-and-volatility-indices-both-jump-whos
Very interesting, Jey!
Thank you!
The 5 things I’ve expected in consecutive order have been:
1) positive correlation of SPX-VIX,
2) emerging Selling on Strength
3) SKEW >135 (as the last evidence of prevalent smart money buying security over an ultra-complacent retailer)
4) BIG Selling on Strength
5) swing high.
How come we don’t hear any more chatter about the Biotechs?
GDXJ doing ok today.. riding the 20 EMA..
The rising dollar, a soaring US stock market and gold going no where was all accurately forecast, well in advance by Martin Armstrong. Gary thinks Armstrong is a fraud and a huckster. Go figure.
Armstrong missed the entire baby bull. He tried to call the top all the way up.
The arrays always have enough conflicting signals that they can be interpreted just about any way.
I think he has a lot of followers who have bought into this AI nonsense and therefore his calls may move the market to some extent, but I don’t think he’s invented a computer that can predict the future.
Heck he’s been calling for the world to enter a recessionary cycle that supposedly started back in Oct. of last year. Well in the meantime the global economy has strengthened. So he also predicts that stocks are going up. See how he’s covered all bases?
Agree with you Gary re Armstrong. He claims to have called the 1987 crash , the break up of the Soviet Union, the dot com bubble……..indeed, any major event in the past few centuries – most of them TO THE DAY!!!
Meanwhile, his arrays are so convoluted that they end up having 10-15 possible outcomes. So, no matter what happens, he points to the outcome that worked and claims – “See, I told you so.”
Gotta say though – he is one of the best con artists around.
Gary, the same can be said about Larry Edelson. He is all over the map. I wonder if Edelson follows Armstrong or vice versa.
Can somebody disprove my conspiracy theory on the financials please? Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Citi group et al., Up higher than 30% since election night. There was tremendous volume in these stocks the day after elections. Are there any economic events that I’m neglecting that would push these half trillion dollar companies up 30% in a single month? I can’t find any. The only conclusion I have right now is that these institutions are being preemptively bailed out? I mean look at the volume and multiply that by the amount of money pumped into these companies since the elections. Any thoughts?
For banks:
Steepening yield curve = higher profits
Less regulation = more speculative behavior without consequences
Lower taxes = higher profits
Higher oil prices = lower defaults on oil exploration loans
Thank you. All of those variables make sense to me. But the fed has not yet raised interest rates, Trump has yet to lower regulations, taxes are still the same and oil prices only jumped up a couple of days ago and are receding a little. So I still have a difficult time believing these factors could push the bank stocks >30%. But as my username suggests I’m new to the field and I could be wrong…
don’t they say that market ALWAYS looks to the future?
How does buying shares bails the banks out? Are the banks issuing new shares?
Re. manipulation. I have no doubt that all markets are being manipulated for “our good”. Seriously, can one imagine what will happen if the bond (the biggest) market wasn’t manipulated. I know no one who does not owe money. And, then we have the fed? What is it? 20 trillions? States? Counties? And, what not?
We should all thank PPT, otherwise all pension funds will bust. Who will support retirees?
In last 3000 years no great society has been destroyed without the “use” of debt. And, the present is no exception. But, it can take centuries for great set ups to crumble. That does not mean that it cannot happen in a shorter period.
At present there is no turning back. Debt CANNOT be paid. So, manipulation is the only way forward. As I said it is all being done “our good” and I am thankful.
The idea is not to discuss manipulation. I guess the discussion is all about how to use this manipulation to profit, that is materially.
Welcome to interesting times!
Vin,
I specifically chose the term bailed out over manipulation. Manipulation has a negative connotation and I was trying to stay neutral. I agree that markets need propping up from time to time, every country does it one way or another. We are in agreement here.
As for how does buying a companies stocks bail them out, I don’t have a theory on how that would play out. I’m just making an observation that for every bank there was a massive spike in volume the morning after the elections and every bank happened to move in the positive direction culminating to >30% increase for the month. I’m surprised this doesn’t interest more people.
Just to add to my point, bank of america did not break the $20 price since the 2008 financial crisis…
I really do believe that a “Wall Street friendly” president is what put the bid under stocks. Look at all of the regulations post-2008 that have basically handcuffed many former divisions (money centers) for the biggest I-Banks. If there is potential to overturn them and/or soften them, the potential earnings boost is probably driving this euphoria. Then again, the speed and near vertical ascent of this rally makes it a bit suspect as well…I’ve never seen a chart that went in a vertical flagpole that didn’t eventually give most, if not all of it back.
Newtrader: If the Apple’s stock went to $2000 in a few days, what effect would that have on their sales and earnings? The answer is : NONE.
Conversely, if Apple’s stock were to crash to $100, overnight, what effect would that event have on sales and earnings? Right, NONE.
Do you get what the stock market is really all about?
Don, is it really that simple? When the bank stocks crashed in 2008, the government had to step in and bail them out. We now know it was poor debt distribution that led to the decline in stock value. So that is a perfect example that counters your argument where the activities of a business affects the stock value, the same can be said for gold miners that basically follow the price action of gold.. My concept of the stock market is old school, as in once you buy shares in a company the company can use that money to conduct business activities and pay you back interest in the form of dividends or capital gains. But of course, like your point above this is over simplified.
Which brings me to my point on the financials since the elections. These companies have not physically done anything different since November 9. Their “sales” have not changed and regulations that would determine their future performance have not changed. So in this example ,you are right the business activities of these banks have nothing to do with their stock value and that is exactly my point. I’m arguing that a ton of money was pumped into these sectors which is “artificially” raising the value of these stocks. But there is so much money pumped in that whatever entity pumped this much money in would be hard pressed in selling all these shares, which makes me think this money was pumped in preemptively without the thought of gaining any future return.
Newtrader,
Markets do not move “once things happen”. They move in “anticipation” of something happening. In fact, once that thing happens, markets may move lower because the possibility of that thing happening is already baked into the price. While you are at it, ixquick search the SM axiom “Buy the rumor, sell the news.”
Jayragusa,
It’s one of the many lessons I’m learning; emotions/expectations direct markets = unpredictability…
It’s also important not to overlook how hedge funds were positioned ahead of the election and the affect that a “surprise” Trump victory had. Think about the sort of “hedge fund hotel” trade throughout the summer/fall. Which sectors were strongest? tech. Literally the Nasdaq revisited the breakout area 3 times without getting thru there, but the FANG’s were bulletproof (and had been for years). Financials had been in the dog house, but were getting a minor bid (probably some unwind of some long/short type sector trade). Heck, GS was testing the Feb lows post-Brexit, some $80+ dollars ago. So Trump wins and chaos ensues. Russell is just the best case study. I can go back many years and not find a chart like that…sure there are some charts that would resemble that coming out of some major 7 year cycle low, but never really at that juncture of a move. It’s really just remarkable how this market is a combination of some earnest buying and a lot of “unwind’s” provoked by some bad bet blowing up somewhere else and leading to a sort of “contagion” effect of unwind’s in everything else…Also, why I would argue that many sectors nowadays experience upside “crashes”. Believe me, if Russell’s chart were inverted (which it basically was last January), you’d have all the usual suspects figuring out when, where and how to intervene to stem the bleeding.
More I look at those graphs and more I fear that EUR will crash at 85 and the dollar will explode to 120………
I have to admit that I don’t have the expertise of many on this forum. Though based on these charts I won’t hesitate for a second betting against Euro in favor of the dollar. And, I am planning to do so.
I am truly thankful to Gary for posting so much factual information. Additionally, he never hesitates to provide us with his in depth knowledge.
Lately, I have been doing well by being a contrarian, that is being a contrarian to the expert opinion.
Vin,
Glad to hear that lately you are doing well. The positive comments are awesome!
Thank you, Man! Thank you for the support you provided a few days ago. It worked and I went in again. Though with fear I have to admit. Good luck Goild. Make a bundle.
Vin,
I focus on a single trading theme and try to master it.
Jumping from this to that often leads to loses.
In trading one needs to know oneself.
Writing down the trading goals and adhering to them is key.
If there is no vision then one perishes…
Keep a log of your trades to learn about yourself.
There is no place for hope in this game. Execute stop loss. Make of it the number ONE habit.
Every trade needs to have a plan; if you do not plan the exit you may end up hoping for the market to come back.
Must truly consider if you really want to trade; trading can take away valuable things from you: self reliance, time, and money.
In a free market, sure…Last summer look at dollar yen and how convincing a breakdown looked at the time…but these cb’s are managing everything at all times. It’s like everything nowadays…some dollar strength might be preferred, but not too much…some bid in crude oil is preferred, but can’t let it get too low or too high..everything is managed.
USD made a big swing low today. Looks like damn gold in for more pain, its dropping alrdy. Face it, everyone calling for a big bounce has been wrong. If gold doesn’t bounce back big like to 1200 after the Fed then I think its safe to say that the bear market has returned
on one of my junior miner LYD usual day trading volumes were 50k – 150k max. Today one bid was 650k …, What does it mean? Insider position? Someone know something that’s coming? any input?
Hopefully it’s not Roberts bid (( :
Yes, those that called for gold big bounce is idiot. No big bounce. Conversely, those that called for silver big bounce is really smart. $1 bounce. Good job.
There’s more to come.
“….Armstrong missed the entire baby bull”
The “baby bull” is your phrase/invention and as yet unproven, look at your screen gold is at $1169
Note to the future:
We are not quite there yet, but there is a possibility that 2017 will produce a huge yearly outside reversal in the 30 year bond should it fall another 9 dollars by the end of December. It has lost more than 26 dollars in the past five months alone since it peaked near 175 in July. I kind of doubt we get there but the way things have been going its just one more thing to keep an eye on. If we see the 30 drop below 140 we will definitely have reasons to believe the so-called bond bubble has finally come to an end.
Earlier today I read a post where by someone noted that the correlation between Miners and Gold were not falling in the same ratio, that miners were holding up quite well.
To me, and I surely don’t have all the facts, but ABX as an example all in cost to produce an once was $1200 in 2012 or so. All these miners have reduced cost considerably to around now $800 an oz all in. thus tempering their fall this time around.
When gold was in the 1000 plus range and miners costs were $1200 I felt less risk trading the miners whose balance sheets were the strongest.
I felt gold could only stay at that level for so long. After all bankrupting ever miner didn’t ad up. Supply would have just dried up.
So now….. would not be so comfortable with gold at $1130 and miners all in at $800 an once. More room for Gold to fall this time without affecting supply.
Surely not the whole story but I think a point with some merit.