Bull Market 3X ETFs
Triple leveraged ETFs can be held through a bull market.
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Bull Market 3X ETFs
Triple leveraged ETFs can be held through a bull market.
Like our new Facebook page to stay current on all things Smart Money Tracker
Why not tell us something useful like when JNUG will see 23? Any fool can predict JNUG going to 500 or 50 000. You have no idea when JNUG may see 23 which is why you don’t respond to the question but simply throw out lofty numbers that may one day, way in the future come to fruition. This way nobody can say you are wrong because you will be long dead before JNUG sees your 500.
Within the next 4-5 years.
Is that quick enough for you?
If 4 years from now your portfolio is up 5000-10,000% will that be enough for you?
Linear projection for 5 years? Amazing!
5 years should be plenty of time for the third phase of the bull market to play out.
exactly! Some very smart people don’t understand than volatility does not work in favor of 3X. Say, for example, a 30% decrease will result in a 90% decrease in 3X. What can I say?
Hi, Gary. One of the concerns I have with jnug is potential for reverse splits. If the split ratio is some oddball number, it could result in fractional shares which are redeemed by Direxion for cash automatically, over which the individual has no control.
For how many months can price stay below 10, before a reverse split occurs. Or, is this entirely arbitrary depending on the whim of Direxion. What is your take on this aspect?
ras, it does not have be a reverse split. To make large amount of money in 3X one has to avoid large downturns. One can actually lose money in 3X while X has is profitable if the volatility is too high . It is very simple arithmetic. On, the other hand if the market keeps on going up without too much volatility then 3X can be “dream come true”.
Hello brianbreeze.
If you have seen my posts, you will note that I do not always agree or disagree with anyone here. I like to be responsible for my actions.
First, note that investing in stocks is very different than playing the stock market. What is being done on this site is absolute speculation. And, most of the people here honestly believe that their mambo jumbo is scientifically based. LOL!
The name of the game is to correctly predict the direction of the market. It can result in big gains and big losses depending on whether one is right or wrong. Gold is additionally more speculative. And, the miners are even more leveraged. Furthermore, the juniors i.e. small caps or very small caps (the j part of junug) are significantly more leveraged than the larger miners. AND, now if you multiply that leverage with 3X it becomes cleat how volatile these entities are.
People play them because when correct rewards can be mind boggling.
In short, let me say that if gold goes up significantly without a large downturn, rewards in jnug will be beyond belief.
But remember that the price has to keep on going up without very significant correction. To explain this point I will need more space but it suffices to say that a large turn downturn can be devastating. Regarding juniors, they can go up 1000% or even 5000% in no time at all because at present they are quite under-priced.
I do not know whether Gary’s predictions will be correct. But, the matter of fact is that things can become even rosier than what he says. But, always remember that at any point a 30% loss will result in 90% loss in 3X. In micro miners a 30% loss is not a big deal.
I wish you good luck in whatever you do.
When I said “under-priced” I meant historically speaking.
People may be gold/miners bearish.
That is OK.
Though ask the question how much can they make going short?
Say short NUGT and at the most you stand to make about 9.5 bucks for every share.
I think bright. NUGT was at 1000 on January 2013.
I would be happy, very happy if NUGT gets to 100.
Then with my 5 lots I would be millionaire.
At this point my 5 lots were effectively bought at $4.5.
So I really can play old turkey to one day, because indeed one day NUGT will hit 100, enjoy
millionaire profiting.
So it all depends on how you think.
Gary we need to get across the first hurdle of 1200. Based on miners poor action while gold was going higher it looks like we topped today. I hate to say it but NUGT & JNUG could selloff 30% from here
Some kind of pull back could be in the works. Time will tell.
Robert,
No, no, no.
I think we just have a sideways channel. Nothing to worry about for tomorrow.
We need to worry about on 1/20th.
Why 1/20? Following another cycles analyst they are saying USD in timing band for DCL and gold topping
Price tends to retrace the last upswing. NUGT could back off to 8. Time will tell.
Interesting thesis. Using one’s own personal yardstick, how can anyone tell what others can or can not do?
This one of those times were one has to apply common sense and stick to your guns.
Look, the miners hit their very low in an long year span on Jan 2016 and on Dec 2016.
3X miners had hit their lows then, period. You got to have “the mental strength” to ride the bull.
There are only two possibilities right or wrong. The scenario calls for long to be right.
One cannot afford to be out. Some time it really will take off. And I agree the time frame to fruition is 3-5 years, and exceptionally wonderful if you wait 5-10 years.
Sounds good. But, how do you deal with potential reverse split in jnug leading to creation of fractional shares which are automatically redeemed by Direxion for cash?
And again, is there another great deal around?
Please let me know as I don’t know.
Personally I don’t get the whole 3X fascination, especially for buy and hold but that is just me.
Take a look at NXS.V I bought it at .05 CAD back in August 2016 and it hit .15 CAD this week without any of the volatility of the Wall Street 3x instruments that are designed to fleece most traders by playing on their emotions. Wall Street’s HFT algos love to take the 3x vehicles for wild rides but they are beyond the reach of most of the micros.
I have Gold making a new high on day 18 but would like to see the miners make one more push into a higher high out of their Bull Flag before they top. The XAU made a slightly higher high today but GDX and the HUI did not. GDX started bullish but a 10 day top (so far) would not be that inspiring, IMO.
https://surfcity.co/2017/01/12/gold-trading-cycle/
Hopefully we get one more push Surf otherwise the miners could completely rollover here and drop an easy 10-12%
robert, you could be correct… i dont see any more highs for miners until we get a retest of weekly downtrend line that miners bounced off of
Yes, I would like to see one more push higher but I was taking profits on my trading shares, selling into strength over the past two days based on TIME.
This is certainly not a place were I would be adding or buying the dip. Rather, I plan to wait patiently to buy back my trading shares at the next TC low (DCL).
Surf what are the chance of one more push up in miners, like what are the odds 50-50 or less? When you check it out the volume on GDX hasnt been that big
I really could not say. What I do know is that GDX has already made a higher high than the previous Trading Cycle so we also want to see a higher low. It is currently chopping in a bull flag so maybe we see a time based flag consolidation. I would like to see a 50% retrace hold but we may see a 62%. Much depends on how Gold finds its low
If the regular miners drop 10-12 then the 3xers will drop 30-40%
Yeah, then you need 70% to get back to even. Easy in a bull. Disaster if it fades. I scaled back my 3x from 8600 shares to 600. Way too hard for me on the swings with more shares. I ain’t no pro. I wish I had the confidence level to pull it off. I just struggle there. Straight up swings are bad enough, 3x are crazy. I completely understand why Gary says most can’t do it or won’t do it.
But surf no worries the bull market will save any timing mistakes and bad trades you know.
Ras, you are an acute thinker. Indeed, I do not know how much some else can make going short or long, or even how much I can make. Thanks.
Everybody should do themselves a big favor and pull up 5 year chart of NUGT, JNUG, DUST, TZA, TVIX.
True, it is possible for a leveraged fund to go up BUT THIS REQUIRES THE UNDERLYING TO DO UP. Non-stop. Like the STOCK MARKET has. Not sideways, look at DUST.
Hi, Horner. Great point. For that matter, UVXY also. What is your take on the potential for reverse split of nugt/jnug and the potential for creation of fractional shares which are automatically redeemed by the fund manager?
NUGT and JNUG are getting close to reverse-split time. What happens to price when shares are dumped? You should know the answer to that…
Homerj, let me add something very interesting to it. Look at very long term charts of 3X bears and 3X bulls. Yes, in the very long run, one will probably lose money on both. specially if it is a volatile X.
How is that possible? In fact it is quite simple arithmetic and that is why “daily” is a MUST in the prospectus of 3X. I guess some very smart ones don’t understand it because it is tooooo simple for them.
This isn’t shit that you buy and hold. Even a prolonged sideways consolidation will kill your capital, while the ETF they follow remains flat.
exactly
Gary, what percentage of portfolio are u recommending ur subs to buy w/ miner’s X3?
Here is the simple arithmetic for those who are not very smart:
Let us buy X and 3x for $100 each.
1. Goes up 100%: X is $200 and 3X is $400.
2. Goes down 30%: Now X is $140 and 3X is $40.
Let us see it in reverse: Again buy $100 each
1. Goes down 30%: X is $70 and 3X is $10
2. Goes uo 100%: X is $140 and 3X is $40
More often the decline worse is the condition of the 3X. Even small frequent declines can be devastating.
I am sure it is toooo simple for the real smart ones.
This is like telling a smoker “YOUR LUNGS ARE DYING”.
People hear what they want to hear, it’s called confirmation bias.
Homerj, this is what gambling is all about. The rewards can be phenomenal even if odds are not favourable.
I love this site. Interesting part is that most here believe that they are sure winners because it is all scientifically based supported by maths.
But Vin that’s not what Gary says!! We are not worthy
Tomorrow is Friday the 13th. A big down day for gold and silver, perhaps? 😀
I thought gold dwells on uncertainty?
Hi Slep, good to find you! Indeed it looks to be a good downer day for gold, through and going into close on Tuesday, perhaps to 1161. Then I will aim 1178. From there I would like 1144, a higher low. That should set up a great rally to 1231 in February near 21st. After that your lower low should materialize for gold to 1094 in April. We shall be off to much higher prices along with Trump spending and stock market bear beginning from May onwards.
I am an idiot and very happy to be one. Just imagine being a very smart one: It would be a nightmare dealing
with so many idiots!
Welcome to Gary’s world. Lol
dboz. If one does not buy now, one will be sorry a few months from now. Please understand that timing is not important in bull. In a bull market there are no losing trades.
I am now a follower of Gary. I think he is a real genius. I bought [email protected]. And, I am sure I will make big money in the very long run. I plan to retire on this investment.
Oh, I am all in at this point. I still have some buys from Sept and Oct I need correcting. Speeded things along with a JNUG buy at the bottom that helped bail me out. Just now about running even after bottom buying but now it’s getting dicey again. A big down turn here and I am really in the red. Out of powder to DCA any more. If this is all we are getting I would say I am in big trouble. I come here to have my hand held to help walk me through it. And yes, this is my big chance to change my future also.
dboz, All my comments aside I truly wish you do well. They say that one should never gamble with the money one needs. And, yes I do consider buying jnug gambling. I wish you luck.
“Within the next 4-5 years.”
The rolling 4-5 years has just rolled into another year.
Gary post author:
January 12, 2047 at 7:43 pm
See folks! I’ve been telling you all along, JNUG would hit 500 in 4-5 years — and it did!
Just go back and look at my posts from 2042 & 2043 — I just kept telling folks all along that JNUG would top 500 in 4-5 years, but they insisted on buying high and selling low.
zkotpen
January 12, 2047 at 7:44 pm
Oh! So that’s how that works!
King Dollar
There are significant changes in our investment landscape this morning. One is the surge of the U.S. Dollar. It was not very long ago that the U.S. dollar index (DXY) had trouble holding any level above $101.50. Bruce Kamich of TheStreet’s Real Money premium service told us in early November that a trade for the DXY above $102 would likely signal the next leg up for the dollar. Well, guess what? One euro now buys you less than $1.05, and one U.S. greenback will now get you more than 118 yen for the first time since last winter. This matters.
Higher dollar valuations will at some point injure forward-looking earnings for U.S. multinationals, and will put the whammy on commodity prices.
The weekly candles for gold, miners, Yen, Euro, look good.
The drop has been significant and at least a better balanced point should come.
Recall that gold has been around s$1200 in a channel since 2013. So hardly one can lose.
Let us be patient.
What scares me even more so for the average investor is when an “analyst” tells you that something will happen in the market with “certainty.” They tell you that you must buy a certain stock, or worse yet, a leveraged ETF (which have other major issues associated with them), because the market will “absolutely” do something in the coming year. Some will even tell you that you should not use stops, and they even provide you with ridiculous reasons for ignoring basic, sound investment advice. They convince you with promises of huge returns. And, incredibly, they make these claims with even more certainty as the initial position they suggest goes further and further under water.
Folks, let’s face it. Life and the financial markets are uncertain, and one should never approach any market, investment, or trade with any amount of certainty. To do so is not only foolhardy, but reckless to boot. Yet, we see too many “advisors” suggesting that certain trades/investments MUST do this or that. Anytime you are being told something MUST occur, or something will CERTAINLY happen, you are being “sold,” and are not being provided with reasonable, sound investment/trade advice. These people do not care about your money as much as they care about their own ego. Sadly, many of them are dangerous to your financial well-being and are no better than con-artists.
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1477235760.php
http://smartmoneytrackerpremium-exposed.com/
By DUST I predict You will make 1000-10000 percent by the time this bear market is over. Only idiots disagree with me…..Only joking, just trying to put across how this blog works……
Of course im talking 4-5 years…….
You may loose 90-95 percent on the way, but trust me if you hold yep 1000-10000 percent gains….
vin,
“And, most of the people here honestly believe that their mambo jumbo is scientifically based. LOL!”
Hey buddy! Actually, there is only one person here that I’m aware of who claims their work is science-based. Before laughing out loud, you could ask me one question that would dig straight at the heart of the matter, and you would ask it in such a way as to show your seriousness in receiving the answer.
But you are unable to ask that question. Though you are articulate, your mind does not work in a scientific or mathematical way. Therefore, you have no idea of which question to ask.
Hey amigo, you had your chance to delve into math & science. It was right there in front of you, the first steps of the path laid out before your very eyes. But you chose to apply yourself in other areas, for one reason or another. You made that decision as your teenage years began, but it is your decision, you made it, so embrace it. You’re a social person, not a science person. You applied your smarts to what you felt was the right path for you.
But there is something that often accompanies the math & science thinking that you opted out of: I’m an Aspy, there buddy. If you had chosen the math & science path, you’d have steered yourself away from all that social skill that you chose to work on & develop.
So your strength is my weakness — and most certainly, vice versa, though we are both fairly intelligent and fairly articulate.
With that in mind, I will ask you a question in the area of your strength/my weakness:
How does a smart social person like you gain access to an area of interest in natural or social phenomena, knowing full well that area is outside their own expertise?
You see, for the past year, I’ve been interested in discussing this with such a person, somebody with the social smarts, but I don’t know how to overcome all the social obstacles, and get right down to the math & science, which is what I care about deeply.
Until such time (or my death, whichever comes first), the toothpaste remains in the tube!
PS: I don’t like the expression, “the cat’s in/out of the bag” — I love cats & if one were in a bag, I’d certainly set it free!
Let me say that every one of your premises is wrong. There goes your theory based on these assumptions.
vin,
Wow — I wrote the above without seeing that you actually addressed me personally in the previous post. You may choose to believe the previous sentence, or not, but I will say I responded to your “mambo jumbo” comment only, knowing full well that nobody here talks about science but me.
When I wrote, two posts ago,
“it gave me a lovely divergence…” and “…Missed it by a fraction of a sliver of a whisker on the latter chart.”
Surely you can believe that I was referring to something specific. I had both of those mathematical expressions explicitly formed in my mind, but figured people would not like them. Especially the second one, which I particularly like — at the time, I thought, ‘My God, what would people think, how would they react, if I actually posted what I meant by “a fraction of a sliver of a whisker” in mathematical terms?’ (plus, “a whisker” gets back to my love of cats, always a cause for happiness & joy 😉 )
“To question someone’s “level of understanding” based on such a great question is nothing but height of arrogance.”
I want to address these two points of yours in reverse order.
First up, mon bon Monsieur, as I mentioned in the above comment directed toward you, I’m an Aspy. In a post-Rain Man world, people feel some sympathy for people with Autism, whereas pre-Rain Man, people were content to just express their contempt, cast them off, and throw them in the social garbage dump — which is where “the Cruiser” found his Rain Man brother stashed away in the movie. So people have sympathy for autistic folks — but only as long as they are stashed away and removed from society.
Interestingly enough, the DSM-V has folded Asperger’s Syndrome into what they call “the Autism Spectrum”. I find that highly appropriate. And with the math & science that have been instilled in me since an early age, a “spectrum” for me is much more fluid that it might be for a non-scientist. A non-scientist might ask where something or someone is on a particular spectrum, and want to permanently fix a response. But a scientist realizes that anything measured on any spectrum is constantly in flux. To think there are seven — or 16.7 million — colors of a rainbow is incorrect, scientifically speaking. Actually, seven & 16.7 million are manageable approximations — something people can wrap their minds around, for practical intents & purposes. So they work just fine in day to day life.
Long before I’d heard the word “Asperger’s”, I even thought of myself as “quite autistic in the morning” and “a bit more sociable in the late afternoon and evening”. At this juncture, I try to avoid human interaction of any type before lunch time, unless I know the person I’m interacting with extremely well. If I’m tending toward the one end of the spectrum, I will voluntarily avoid all social interaction, for days at a time, if necessary. Conversely, when I find myself on the more sociable side of the spectrum, I engage others, I feel happy & surprised, but remain baffled as to “why people seem to like me today more than other days.”
But I digress from responding to your comments directed toward my person. You see, my friend, we Aspies are considered “highly functional” people with autism, society at large has no grounds to stash us away, throw us in the social garbage dump — but they want to! Therefore, we Aspies remain misunderstood pariahs, leaving regular folks to wonder why we are such weirdos, why we can’t just “act normal like everybody else,” why we always, “say such strange things.”
I’ve heard the “arrogance” comment before, which has always confounded me. Who would feel more contempt for an Aspy than their own flesh and blood? Fortunately, nothing you say could compare to that level of contempt and incredulity. Still, that’s why I tried to phrase my comment in the nicest way possible, though unsure of how it would be received. I believe it was constructively received by the person to whom it was directed.
With that in mind, “questioning someone’s level of understanding” — I suppose you will take what I’m about to write with contempt, but here goes: I was not questioning anything. The comments clearly indicated a beginner’s level of knowledge, perhaps tabla rasa beginner. Nothing wrong with being a beginner (hence I don’t understand why people feel my comment is arrogant). The best thing I can offer is to warn that person they are about to go down a road with repercussions that are serious, damaging, potentially very long-lasting, and very difficult to reverse. And my suggested solution: Do not put money at risk until you have a very clear notion about probabilities, strategy, and risk management. You don’t even need to move beyond “beginner” level of understanding — just flip a coin, and trade — as long as you understand the probabilities (not just the obvious 50-50, but also the random distribution of the outcome of each instance), have a clear strategy & the discipline to adhere to it, and the risk management in place to allow you to trade coin flips profitably.
Three years ago, I met a forex trader who told me he did just that — he claimed he had a very good idea of when a market was going to make a move, but no idea which way. A very compelling argument for NOT learning any form of market analysis or forecasting!! Just remain a beginner — so long as you’re clear on probabilities, strategy, and risk management. Beginner or expert, or anywhere on that spectrum in between, if you don’t have those three things down, you will get crushed, as at the blackjack table.
[Aside: The reason one will get crushed at the blackjack table is, when your chip count is at its peak, you can still play; when your chip count is at its minimum, you can’t play any more].
The Aspy is trying to help, but they are misconstrued as being arrogant.
And not just arrogant, but the “height of arrogance”.
“You can enlighten us with your knowledge so that we can learn, like Gary does. Or, you can be arrogant and put us starters down, as you have done. The choice is yours!”
Before I saw that comment, perhaps while you were writing it, I responded to the request for clarification/sharing. That was my choice, which I welcomed, even though it was late at night in my time zone, and I was ready for bed. I responded, then went to sleep.
I believe an apology from you is in order.
Holding up the mirror to me? Sure, I guess you did that, though you held up a mirror tinted with your own bias.
More importantly, where are you, where have you been with your mirror — tinted or not — in my time of need, in my time of critical decision-making, where you see me on the verge of stepping dangerously and offered to help to prevent my misstep?
Why do you hold up your mirror when it’s convenient for you, rather at the moment where you could provide maximum benefit to the person you’re holding it up to?
You think a bit too highly of yourself, not an uncommon trait in people like you. Enjoy.
vin,
Correction to the last paragraph:
“Why do you hold up your mirror when it’s convenient for you, rather THAN at the moment where you could provide maximum benefit to the person you’re holding it up to?
vin,
“You can enlighten us with your knowledge so that we can learn, like Gary does. Or, you can be arrogant and put us starters down, as you have done. The choice is yours!”
Your comment is time-stamped 10:19 am
My response to Rozalina’s excellent question is time-stamped 10:10 am
I posted my comment nine minutes before you posted yours.
And then I went to bed.
Zkot, mate, do not bother, keep your track.
GARY, you were right and I was wrong w/ my timing –> I remember you saying that SM would correct on Trump’s inauguration (while my initial forecast in mid October was for the high flames of the Scorch starting in DEC and then reverted to the first week of JAN).
All pieces of the puzzle now favor a cheerful good-bye greeting of Obama by Lady Market and Trump’s inauguration as the inauguration of Yearly Cycle declines of risk-ons too.
Further indication of that, an additional piece of puzzle, would come later today on COT issue showing dramatic increase in commercials’ net short positions in risk-on assets and USD.
PS: Crude oil surging to 56 next week and then declining to 39-turf in March is quite, quite likely.
zkotpen,
Takes courage to talk about being Asperger (as they used to call it).
You know your strengths and weaknesses and know that the common folk will always have difficulty understanding you because you are complex. (common folk don’t try to understand the complex they take the easy route and simplify everything).
See it everyday. I take comfort in knowing there are people like you out there.
Keep up the good work.
Like your posts!
Cheers